CN107505630A - The method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism - Google Patents

The method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism Download PDF

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CN107505630A
CN107505630A CN201710680909.XA CN201710680909A CN107505630A CN 107505630 A CN107505630 A CN 107505630A CN 201710680909 A CN201710680909 A CN 201710680909A CN 107505630 A CN107505630 A CN 107505630A
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CN107505630B (en
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周筠珺
赵鹏国
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Chengdu University of Information Technology
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Abstract

The invention belongs to weather forecast technical field field, discloses a kind of method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism, including：Sichuan Basin aerosol analysis of physical and chemical feature, aerosol and the analysis of water dust vertical features, CCN and the analysis of warm cloud Microphysical Structure, provide under different pollution backgrounds, under Various Seasonal and different weather backgrounds aerosol CCN water dusts parametric relational expression, and parameterize relation between the CCN and water dust established in different vertical height.The present invention is by disclosing Sichuan Basin aerosol to warm cloud microphysical processes influencing mechanism, to improve the accuracy of Sichuan Basin weather forecast；The vertical change feature of " aerosol CCN clouds " parametrization relation has been obtained under the high concentration aerosol background of the Sichuan Basin, the parameterized results have been applied in Study of Meso Scale Weather Forecast Mode, and then has improved the accuracy of area weather forecasting.

Description

The method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism
Technical field
The invention belongs to weather forecast technical field, more particularly to one kind to carry based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism The method of high weather forecast accuracy.
Background technology
Weather forecast is exactly the rule using Atmosphere changes, according to current and recent weather situation, to a certain ground future Weather conditions in regular period are predicted.It is according to satellite cloud picture and synoptic analysis, is provided with reference to relevant meteorology Made after the comprehensive study such as material, landform and seasonal characteristic, mass experience.Such as the satellite cloud picture of the Central Meteorological Observatory of China, it is exactly " wind and cloud No.1 " meteorological satellite intake of China's manufacture.Analyzed using satellite cloud picture photo, weather forecast can be improved Accuracy rate.Weather forecast is generally divided into three kinds with regard to the length of timeliness:Short-range weather forecast (2~3 days), medium-range forecast (4~ 9 days), long-range weather forecasting (more than 10~15 days), the mainly short-range weather forecast that the Chinese Central Television (CCTV) plays daily.Existing skill Observational study of art (1) aerosol as cloud condensation nucl (CCN), prior art are mainly the observation technology of single platform, are lacked Cooperate with the research of multi-platform INTEGRATED SIGHT, shortage to aerosol physicochemical property and corresponding CCN activation capacities；Prior art lacks The synthesis collaborative design of complicated landform.(2) influence of the aerosol to cloud and precipitation, prior art is primarily directed to high concentration moisture absorption Property the research to cloud and Rainfall Influence of strong aerosol, lack with regard to all kinds of aerosols in all kinds of weather systems to cloud and precipitation shadow Loud research.(3) aerosol is to cloud and the numerical simulation study of Rainfall Influence, in the prior art numerical simulation lack of targeted, Not the Sichuan Basin aerosol-CCN- clouds parameterized results.The Sichuan Basin is with a varied topography, and aerosol concentration is high and is not easy Diffusion, moisture content are enriched.The technology directly have studied the key problem of Sichuan Basin weather and weather --- and " into cloud mechanism ", Warm cloud cloud process particularly below zero-degree layer, this will effectively improve pre- to diastrous weather early warning under MODEL OVER COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY Report ability.Before this because condition limits, Sichuan Basin aerosol physicochemical property and the research of warm cloud into cloud mechanism are separate, and two Between relation have no precedent system in-depth study.So that this area's disastrous weather forecast is difficult point all the time.
In summary, the problem of prior art is present be：Single platform, lack and cooperate with multi-platform INTEGRATED SIGHT, shortage pair The research of aerosol physicochemical property and corresponding CCN activation capacities, lack the synthesis collaborative design in complicated landform；Lack all kinds of gas Research of the colloidal sol in all kinds of weather systems to cloud and Rainfall Influence；Lack of targeted, not the Sichuan Basin aerosol- The parameterized results of CCN- clouds, these make it that the forecast to the extreme diastrous weather in this area is difficult, and accuracy is poor.
The content of the invention
The problem of existing for prior art, carried the invention provides one kind based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism The method of high weather forecast accuracy.
The present invention is achieved in that based on weather most essential physical image occurs for invention (i.e.：Cloud), research influences cloud Core substance aerosol physicochemical property, and aerosol is in the basic role of cloud micro-physical process, and then establishes that " gas is molten The relation of glue-CCN- clouds ", and the relation is used in numerical forecast, it is described molten based on gas to improve weather forecast accuracy Glue physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism improve weather forecast accuracy method include：
The first step, to ground aerosol physicochemical property Continuous Observation, comprehensively utilize ground observation equipment：Ozone analyzer, Nitrogen-oxide analyzer, particulate matter on-line monitoring system, ion chromatograph, gas chromatograph, 8 grades of impacting type particle samplings Instrument, PM2.5The equipment such as automatic sampler and mass flowmenter；Aircraft observation equipment：PCASP-100X aerosols are observed 30 passages and visited Head, CCNC-200 cloud condensation nucls counter, CDP cloud particles probe, cloud particle and precipitation particles two dimensional image, AMMIS-30 temperature Moisture probe；Under the conditions of the different pollution backgrounds in the Sichuan Basin, Various Seasonal and different weather, concentration, spectrum point to aerosol Cloth and chemical constituent carry out continuous sampling analysis, analyze the physicochemical property of Sichuan Basin aerosol.The CCN carried using aircraft Calculating instrument, PCASP, the cloud droplet collector observation CCN Particle densities of different-grain diameter section, 0.1-3 μm of particulate Particle density, 3-50 μm and 25-1500 μm of cloud droplet and big water dust Particle number concentration, and 50-6200 μm of precipitation particles.Analyze different height The cloud such as upper aerosol Particle density and Spectral structure, CCN Spectral structures and size Droplet spectrum particle spectra, liquid water content and precipitation particles is micro- Distribution characteristics in the time scale and space scale of physical features；
Second step, with reference to laser radar, CALIPSO and CLOUDSAT satellite datas from two platforms of ground- and air-based, in Pass through the aerosol optical characteristics of laser radar and CALIPSO satellites and all kinds of aerosols in atmospheric boundary layer and in free atmosphere Concentration distribution between correlation analysis collosol concentration and yardstick Characteristics of Vertical Distribution, provided by CLOUDSAT Satellite Products The Characteristics of Vertical Distribution of water dust particle and Liquid water content in material analysis warm cloud；
3rd step, by aircraft observation, using the observational data of airborne equipment, the gas for analyzing different pollution level areas is molten Size Droplet spectrum and Liquid water content Characteristics of Vertical Distribution and size precipitation particles in glue number concentration distribution, CCN concentration and warm cloud Feature；
4th step, provide under different pollution backgrounds, under Various Seasonal and different weather backgrounds, aerosol-CCN- clouds The parametric relational expression of drop, relation is parameterized between the CCN- water dusts established in different vertical height.
Further, the 4th step specifically includes：
Step 1, sampled using the aerosol film observed under the conditions of different pollution backgrounds, Various Seasonal and different weather Chemical constituent analysis is carried out, according to the chemical constituent of aerosol, estimates the moisture absorption parameter of particulate；
Step 2, using aircraft observation to different height Aerosol Size and the moisture absorption parameter and Kou Lafang that estimate Journey, through N=C × SKEstimate that aerosol can be as CCN Particle density, while the CCN of the different height arrived with aircraft observation Particle density is contrasted, and finds out the ratio that CCN Particle densities on the different height of basin account for aerosol Particle density；
Step 3, under conditions of choosing different layers knot, aerosol and CCN on daytime and night different height layer are analyzed respectively Relation；
Step 4, using the CCN Particle densities under moisture absorption parameter and degree of supersaturation, different pollutions are provided by Function Fitting CCN activation spectrums under the conditions of background, Various Seasonal and different weather, determine N=C × SKParametrization relation.
Further, in the step 1 particulate moisture absorption parameter：Wherein r0Inhaled for aerosol Yardstick before wet, k are the multiple that increases after moisture absorption.
Further, bandit draws equation in the step 2：Left side is steam degree of supersaturation, right side first Item is curvature item, and right side Section 2 is solution concentration item.
Further, water dust volume size distribution in warm cloud in the step 3：F (D)=N0Dμe-λDWherein D is that cloud particle is straight Footpath, N0For intercept, μ is spectral pattern parameter, and λ is slope.
Further, when the relation between different height CCN and water dust is determined in the step 4, the CCN numbers of observation are utilized Concentration and water dust Particle density, provide the relation between different height CCN and water dust, specifically N=C × SK, wherein parameter C and k Obtained by observing fitting.
The present invention is special by ground, aircraft and satellite INTEGRATED SIGHT Sichuan Basin aerosol physicochemical property and warm cloud Microphysical The Concentration feature of sign.Physicochemical property includes aerosol Particle density, particle diameter, chemical group and graded, Microphysical Characteristics bag Include cloud condensation nucl Particle density, cloud particle spectrum and water content etc..Solve before this without the multi-platform INTEGRATED SIGHT of collaboration, shortage to gas The research of colloidal sol physicochemical property and corresponding CCN activation capacities, and lack the synthesis collaborative design of complicated landform the problem of；Solve The problem of aerosol is not studied cloud and Rainfall Influence in all kinds of weather systems before this.Sichuan is established by the present invention The parametrization relation of basin aerosol-cloud condensation nucl-water dust, the threshold condition to aerosol activation into water dust；Disclose Sichuan Basin aerosol physicochemical property and its influencing mechanism to warm cloud Cheng Yun；Parameterized results in invention are applied to mesoscale day In gas Forecast Mode, the accuracy of area weather forecasting is improved.
The present invention chooses 6 websites in Chengdu, Zi Gong, Dazhou City, Guangyuan and Yaan and the physicochemical property of aerosol is seen Survey research.Pass through horizontal and vertical point of ground and aircraft observation Sichuan Basin aerosol physicochemical property and warm cloud Microphysical Characteristics Cloth feature.Physicochemical property includes aerosol Particle density, particle diameter, chemical group are graded, Microphysical Characteristics include cloud condensation nucl Particle density, Cloud particle spectrum and water content etc..The parametrization relation of Sichuan Basin aerosol-cloud condensation nucl-water dust is established by observation, is provided Aerosol activates the threshold condition into water dust.Comprehensive analysis, disclose Sichuan Basin aerosol physicochemical property and and its to warm cloud into The influencing mechanism of cloud.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism that the present invention implements to provide Flow chart.
Fig. 2 is the method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism that the present invention implements to provide Implementation process figure.
Embodiment
In order to make the purpose , technical scheme and advantage of the present invention be clearer, with reference to embodiments, to the present invention It is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present invention, it is not used to Limit the present invention.
The present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in figure 1, present invention implementation offer improves weather forecast accuracy based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism Method, including：
S101：Sichuan Basin aerosol analysis of physical and chemical feature：Sichuan Basin ground aerosol physicochemical property is carried out continuous Observation, understand the base of the physical characteristic such as COMPONENT IN SOUTH SICHUAN BASIN area aerosol yardstick and concentration, cloud condensation nucl and Droplet spectrum and chemical constituent This spatial-temporal distribution characteristic；
S102：Aerosol and the analysis of water dust vertical features：With reference to laser radar, CALIPSO and CLOUDSAT satellite datas Analyze the Characteristics of Vertical Distribution of water dust particle and Liquid water content in Sichuan Basin aerosol concentration and yardstick, warm cloud；
S103：CCN and the analysis of warm cloud Microphysical Structure：By aircraft observation, analysis Sichuan Basin difference pollution level Size Droplet spectrum and Liquid water content Characteristics of Vertical Distribution and size in the aerosol number concentration distribution in area, CCN concentration and warm cloud Precipitation particles feature；
S104：Sichuan Basin aerosol is to warm cloud into cloud mechanism analysis：On the basis of being analyzed more than, different pollutions are provided Under background, under Various Seasonal and different weather backgrounds, to the parametric relational expression of aerosol-CCN- water dusts, establish not Relation is parameterized between the CCN- water dusts in vertical height.
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiment is further described to the application principle of the present invention.
The method provided by the invention that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol properties and into cloud mechanism is included：
1st, observation scope and website are chosen
Set up 6 observation stations in the Sichuan Basin, including the VolksGarden station (104.054 ° of E, 30.658 ° of N) in Chengdu and Lingyan Monastery station (103.613 ° of E, 31.028 ° of N), the sandalwood woods street station (104.774 ° of E, 29.356 ° of N) of Zigong City, Guangyuan City prison Survey station (105.862 ° of E, 32.428 ° of N), Dazhou City environmental monitoring station (107.525 ° of E, 31.215 ° of N) and Ya'an municipal government station (103.01°E,29.983°N).Chengdu VolksGarden station represents municipal pollution website, and Lingyan Monastery station is Chengdu reference station；From Gong Shi is located at Chuan Nan, seriously polluted, and as one of pollution website, Ya'an rainwater enriches, as cleaning website；Guangyuan is located at basin Ground is northern, and cold air scavenging action is strong；Dazhou City is located at Basin Eastern, seriously polluted compared with Guangyuan.Ground observation website, includes four Most serious and the region most cleaned are polluted in river basin, while can also represent the topography and landform character in the Sichuan Basin, have preferable Representativeness.
2nd, the flight observation circuit of flight observation route Preliminary design is 5.Circuit 1 flies to Yaan, circuit 2 from Chengdu Flown from Yaan to Zi Gong, circuit 3 and flown from Zi Gong to Guangyuan, circuit 4 and fly to Dazhou City, circuit 5 from Guangyuan and flown from Dazhou City To Chengdu.Flight line has not only coordinated 6 websites of surface-based observing station, while is worn twice to north and to the east of west from Basin South The Sichuan Basin is crossed, can preferably cover survey region, whole Sichuan Basin Region CCN and warm cloud can be analyzed on this basis Microphysical Characteristics.
3rd, aircraft ceiling altitude used is 6km, mainly for influence of the Sichuan Basin aerosol to warm cloud process, Therefore average below the 4km of plan aircraft altitude.Flying height plan highest is flown to 3km or so, concentrates on that 2-3km is flat to fly to see Survey, carry out observational study mainly for the relation between aerosol and warm cloud.
4th, observation implementation and scheme：
Represent Sichuan Basin diverse geographic location respectively to more than, and the website with cleaning and contamination characteristics is seen Survey, Continuous Observation is carried out to aerosol physicochemical property, CCN Particle densities, observed in combination with aircraft, radar and Satellite Observations Aerosol Particle density and Spectral structure, CCN Particle densities, water dust Particle density and the Spectral structure arrived, analyze Characteristics of Vertical Distribution.In this base The parametrization relation of different height aerosol-CCN- water dusts is established on plinth.
5th, concrete scheme is as follows：
(1) Data Collection
Collect laser radar, CALIPSO and CLOUDSAT satellite datas, at the same collect the temperature of automatic weather station, pressure, Humidity, wind and precipitation data, analysis Sichuan Basin Region aerosol, the Characteristics of Vertical Distribution of cloud particle, are provided in long-term observation On the basis of material, the correlation of particulate and liquid phase particle is analyzed, is ground in this, as follow-up study aerosol on what cloud influenceed Study carefully basis.Collect PM simultaneously2.5、SO2And NO2Observational data, with reference to CCN observational datas, analyze PM2.5、SO2And NO2With CCN With the direct relation of aerosol chemistry component, this is advantageous to recognize Sichuan Basin fine particle and soluble particles for Cheng Yun's Contribution.
(2) observation is implemented
Under the conditions of the different pollution backgrounds in the Sichuan Basin, Various Seasonal and different weather, concentration, Spectral structure to aerosol And chemical constituent carries out continuous sampling analysis, the physicochemical property of Sichuan Basin aerosol is analyzed.The CCN carried using aircraft is counted Number instrument, PCASP, the cloud droplet collector observation CCN Particle densities of different-grain diameter section, 0.1-3 μm of particulate Particle density, 3-50 μm And 25-1500 μm of cloud droplet and big water dust Particle number concentration, and 50-6200 μm of precipitation particles.Analyze on different height The cloud speck such as aerosol Particle density and Spectral structure, CCN Spectral structures and size Droplet spectrum particle spectra, liquid water content and precipitation particles Manage the distribution characteristics of feature.
(3) different height aerosol-CCN- water dusts parametrization relation is established
The first step, sampled using the aerosol film observed under the conditions of different pollution backgrounds, Various Seasonal and different weather Chemical constituent analysis is carried out, according to the chemical constituent of aerosol, estimates the moisture absorption parameter of particulate.
Second step, using aircraft observation to different height Aerosol Size and the moisture absorption parameter and Kou Lafang that estimate Journey, estimation aerosol can be as CCN Particle density, while the CCN Particle densities of the different height arrived with aircraft observation are carried out Contrast, finds out the ratio that CCN Particle densities on the different height of the Sichuan Basin account for aerosol Particle density.
3rd step, the long-term layer knot in the Sichuan Basin is relatively stable, and the night stable stratification typically in summer is more easily damaged, Under conditions of choosing different layers knot, aerosol and CCN relation on daytime and night different height layer, and warm cloud are analyzed respectively Interior water dust volume size distribution and Liquid water content distribution characteristics, disclose the special layer knot condition in the Sichuan Basin to aerosol, CCN and The influence of warm cloud Microphysical Structure vertical distribution.
4th step, the observational data of long-term aerosol, CCN and water dust is integrated, using the moisture absorption parameter extrapolated, and CCN Particle densities under degree of supersaturation, under the conditions of providing different pollution backgrounds, Various Seasonal and different weather by Function Fitting CCN activation spectrums, that is, determine N=C × SkParametrization relation.For the final relation determined between different height CCN and water dust, profit With the CCN Particle densities and water dust Particle density of observation, the relation between different height CCN and water dust is provided.In combination with PM2.5、 SO2And NO2With CCN Particle densities relation and the chemical constituent feature of aerosol, analysis Sichuan Basin difference contamination characteristics are to CCN Activate into the contribution of water dust.The influencing mechanism for summing up the physicochemical property of Sichuan Basin aerosol and being formed to warm cloud.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, all essences in the present invention All any modification, equivalent and improvement made within refreshing and principle etc., should be included in the scope of the protection.

Claims (6)

  1. A kind of 1. method that weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism, it is characterised in that institute Stating based on aerosol physicochemical property and into the method for cloud mechanism raising weather forecast accuracy includes：
    The first step, to ground aerosol physicochemical property Continuous Observation, obtain aerosol yardstick and concentration, cloud condensation nucl and Droplet spectrum Distribution characteristics on different time scales and space scale of physical characteristic and chemical constituent；
    Second step, with reference in laser radar, CALIPSO and CLOUDSAT satellite datas analysis aerosol concentration and yardstick, warm cloud Water dust particle and Liquid water content are in the Characteristics of Vertical Distribution in atmospheric boundary layer and in free atmosphere：
    3rd step, by aircraft observation, analyze in aerosol number concentration distribution, CCN concentration and the warm cloud in different pollution level areas Size Droplet spectrum and Liquid water content Characteristics of Vertical Distribution and size precipitation particles feature；
    4th step, provide under different pollution backgrounds, under Various Seasonal and different weather backgrounds, aerosol-CCN- water dusts Parametric relational expression, relation is parameterized between the CCN- water dusts established in different vertical height.
  2. 2. the method for weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism as claimed in claim 1, Characterized in that, the 4th step specifically includes：
    Step 1, sampled and carried out using the aerosol film observed under the conditions of different pollution backgrounds, Various Seasonal and different weather Chemical constituent is analyzed, and according to the chemical constituent of aerosol, estimates the moisture absorption parameter of particulate；
    Step 2, using aircraft observation to different height Aerosol Size and the moisture absorption parameter estimated and bandit draw equation, Through N=C × SKEstimate that aerosol can be as CCN Particle density, while the CCN numbers of the different height arrived with aircraft observation are dense Degree is contrasted, and finds out the ratio that CCN Particle densities on the different height of basin account for aerosol Particle density；
    Step 3, under conditions of choosing different layers knot, aerosol and CCN pass on daytime and night different height layer are analyzed respectively System；
    Step 4, using the CCN Particle densities under moisture absorption parameter and degree of supersaturation, different pollutions are provided by Function Fitting and carried on the back CCN activation spectrums under the conditions of scape, Various Seasonal and different weather, determine N=C × SKParametrization relation.
  3. 3. the method for weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism as claimed in claim 2, Characterized in that, in the step 1 particulate moisture absorption parameter：Wherein r0Before aerosol moisture absorption Yardstick, k is the multiple that increases after moisture absorption.
  4. 4. the method for weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism as claimed in claim 2, Characterized in that, bandit draws equation in the step 2：Left side is steam degree of supersaturation, and right side Section 1 is Curvature item, right side Section 2 are solution concentration item.
  5. 5. the method for weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism as claimed in claim 2, Characterized in that, water dust volume size distribution in warm cloud in the step 3：F (D)=N0Dμe-λD, wherein D is cloud particle diameter, N0 For intercept, μ is spectral pattern parameter, and λ is slope.
  6. 6. the method for weather forecast accuracy is improved based on aerosol physicochemical property and into cloud mechanism as claimed in claim 2, Characterized in that, when determining the relation between different height CCN and water dust in the step 4, the CCN Particle densities of observation are utilized With water dust Particle density, the relation between different height CCN and water dust, specifically N=C × S are providedK, wherein parameter C and k pass through Observation fitting obtains.
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CN110031915A (en) * 2019-05-08 2019-07-19 中国气象科学研究院 A kind of three-dimensional cloud field diagnostic method and device
CN110849794A (en) * 2019-10-16 2020-02-28 南京信息工程大学 Method for identifying unactivated particles in measurement result of cloud condensation nucleus counter
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CN115201074A (en) * 2022-06-30 2022-10-18 中国科学院大气物理研究所 Method, system, device and computer-readable storage medium for remote sensing inversion of aerosol component distribution

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Cited By (5)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110031915A (en) * 2019-05-08 2019-07-19 中国气象科学研究院 A kind of three-dimensional cloud field diagnostic method and device
CN110849794A (en) * 2019-10-16 2020-02-28 南京信息工程大学 Method for identifying unactivated particles in measurement result of cloud condensation nucleus counter
CN111650102A (en) * 2020-05-26 2020-09-11 北京中科锐景科技有限公司 Haze pollution analysis method, device, medium and equipment based on satellite data
CN115201074A (en) * 2022-06-30 2022-10-18 中国科学院大气物理研究所 Method, system, device and computer-readable storage medium for remote sensing inversion of aerosol component distribution
CN115201074B (en) * 2022-06-30 2023-03-17 中国科学院大气物理研究所 Method, system, device and computer-readable storage medium for remote sensing inversion of aerosol component distribution

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