CN107437149A - The determination method and system that a kind of photovoltaic plant is contributed - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种光伏电站出力的确定方法及系统。该方法包括：基于Copula函数确定多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型；根据所述时空相关性模型，确定单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量；获取单个所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量；将所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量和所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量合成，得到所述光伏电站出力。本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定方法及系统考虑了多个光伏电站出力之间的时空相关性，能够准确的确定各光伏电站的出力。
The invention discloses a method and system for determining output of a photovoltaic power station. The method includes: determining a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the randomness components of the photovoltaic power plant output based on the Copula function; determining a single randomness component of the photovoltaic power plant output according to the spatio-temporal correlation model; obtaining a single photovoltaic power plant The deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station; the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station and the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station are synthesized to obtain the output of the photovoltaic power station. The method and system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station provided by the present invention take into account the time-space correlation among the outputs of multiple photovoltaic power stations, and can accurately determine the output of each photovoltaic power station.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及光伏发电领域，特别是涉及一种光伏电站出力的确定方法及系统。The invention relates to the field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a method and system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station.
背景技术Background technique
光伏发电因其分布广泛、使用方便、无污染等优点，受到人们的广泛关注，是近年来发展最为迅速的可再生能源。但是，光伏电站出力受到辐照强度、温度、天气状况等环境因素的影响，其出力有较大的随机性和间歇性。当光伏电站大规模并网运行，不同电站之间的出力存在一定的相关性，多个光伏电站出力的随机性与相关性会对电网的安全、可靠运行产生较大的影响。因此，在光伏电站出力序列的建模过程中考虑光伏功率的随机性与相关性具有重要意义。Photovoltaic power generation has attracted widespread attention because of its advantages such as wide distribution, convenient use, and no pollution. It is the fastest growing renewable energy in recent years. However, the output of photovoltaic power plants is affected by environmental factors such as radiation intensity, temperature, and weather conditions, and its output is highly random and intermittent. When photovoltaic power plants are connected to the grid on a large scale, there is a certain correlation between the output of different power plants, and the randomness and correlation of the output of multiple photovoltaic power plants will have a greater impact on the safe and reliable operation of the power grid. Therefore, it is of great significance to consider the randomness and correlation of photovoltaic power in the modeling process of photovoltaic power station output sequence.
目前，针对光伏电站出力的建模方法主要分为两类：第一类，首先研究辐照强度模型，接着基于辐照强度与光伏功率的转换关系建立光伏电站出力的模型。第二类，直接基于光伏电站的实测数据形成光伏电站的出力序列。第一类方法中辐照强度与光伏功率的转换函数精度要求较高，并且不同电站由于结构不同，转换函数也不同，实际很难应用；第二类方法对实测数据的要求较高，需要数年甚至数十年的数据作为基础。综上所述，以上两种方法均存在一定的缺陷，在描述多个光伏电站出力之间的空间相关性以及单个电站光伏功率前后的时间相关性仍有不足之处。At present, the modeling methods for the output of photovoltaic power plants are mainly divided into two categories: the first type is to study the radiation intensity model first, and then establish the output model of photovoltaic power plants based on the conversion relationship between radiation intensity and photovoltaic power. The second category is directly based on the measured data of the photovoltaic power station to form the output sequence of the photovoltaic power station. In the first type of method, the conversion function of radiation intensity and photovoltaic power requires high accuracy, and different power plants have different conversion functions due to different structures, so it is difficult to apply in practice; the second type of method has higher requirements for measured data and requires data. based on years or even decades of data. In summary, the above two methods have certain defects, and there are still deficiencies in describing the spatial correlation between the output of multiple photovoltaic power plants and the time correlation before and after the photovoltaic power of a single power station.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的是提供一种光伏电站出力的确定方法及系统，考虑了多个光伏电站出力之间的时空相关性，能够准确的确定各光伏电站的出力。The object of the present invention is to provide a method and system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station, which can accurately determine the output of each photovoltaic power station by considering the temporal and spatial correlation between the outputs of multiple photovoltaic power stations.
为实现上述目的，本发明提供了如下方案：To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following scheme:
一种光伏电站出力的确定方法，所述方法包括：A method for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station, the method comprising:
基于Copula函数确定多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型；Determine a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the stochastic components of the output of the photovoltaic power plant based on the Copula function;
根据所述时空相关性模型，确定单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量；According to the spatio-temporal correlation model, determine the randomness component of the output of a single photovoltaic power plant;
获取单个所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量；obtaining a deterministic component of the output of a single said photovoltaic power plant;
将所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量和所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量合成，得到所述光伏电站出力。Combining the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station and the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station to obtain the output of the photovoltaic power station.
可选的，所述基于Copula函数确定多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型，具体包括：Optionally, the determination of a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the stochastic components of the output of the photovoltaic power plant based on the Copula function specifically includes:
利用Copula函数C(·,·；θ)确定两个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型Use the Copula function C( , ; θ) to determine the time-space correlation model of the randomness component of the output of the two photovoltaic power plants
，其中，为光伏电站A的转移概率分布函数，为光伏电站B的转移概率分布函数，分别为光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻的出力的随机性分量，分别为光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，α、β、θA、θB、θ为系数。,in, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power plant A, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power station B, are the random components of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, respectively, are the random components of the photovoltaic power plant B’s output at time t-1 and time t, respectively, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the photovoltaic power plant B's output at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t-1, and α, β, θ A , θ B , θ are coefficients.
可选的，所述系数α、β、θA、θB、θ的确定方法为：Optionally, the method for determining the coefficients α, β, θ A , θ B , θ is:
获取所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的历史数据；Obtain historical data of the randomness component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant;
将所述历史数据代入所述时空相关性模型，计算得到系数α、β、θA、θB、θ的值。Substituting the historical data into the spatio-temporal correlation model to calculate the values of the coefficients α, β, θ A , θ B , θ.
可选的，根据所述时空相关性模型，确定所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量，具体包括：Optionally, according to the spatio-temporal correlation model, determining the randomness component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant specifically includes:
分别获取多个物理量和物理量其中， w1t、w2t为两个相互独立的且在(0,1)上服从均匀分布的随机变量，t＝1,…n；Get multiple physical quantities separately and physical quantity in, w 1t and w 2t are two independent random variables that are uniformly distributed on (0,1), t=1,...n;
根据公式计算光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， According to the formula Calculate the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t the inverse function of
根据公式计算光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， According to the formula Calculate the random component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t the inverse function of
可选的，所述获取所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量，具体包括：Optionally, the obtaining the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station specifically includes:
根据公式计算所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量Pc,t，其中，Istc为标准辐照强度，It为在无任何遮挡情况下，辐照强度的最大值，Pstc为标准条件下，所述光伏电站的出力。According to the formula Calculate the deterministic component P c,t of the output of the photovoltaic power station, where I stc is the standard radiation intensity, I t is the maximum value of the radiation intensity without any shading, and P stc is the standard condition. Describe the output of photovoltaic power plants.
可选的，所述将所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量和所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量合成，得到所述光伏电站出力，具体包括：Optionally, the synthesis of the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station and the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station to obtain the output of the photovoltaic power station specifically includes:
根据公式Pt＝Pc,t-ηt·Pc,t计算所述光伏电站的出力Pt，其中，Pc,t为所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量，ηt为所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量。Calculate the output P t of the photovoltaic power station according to the formula P t =P c,t -η t ·P c, t, wherein, P c,t is the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station, and η t is the photovoltaic power station The stochastic component of power plant output.
本发明还提供了一种光伏电站出力的确定系统所述系统包括：The present invention also provides a system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station. The system includes:
时空相关性模型确定单元，用于基于Copula函数确定多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型；A spatio-temporal correlation model determination unit, configured to determine a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the stochastic components of the output of the photovoltaic power plant based on the Copula function;
随机性分量确定单元，用于根据所述时空相关性模型，确定单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量；a random component determination unit, configured to determine a single random component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant according to the spatio-temporal correlation model;
确定性分量获取单元，用于获取单个所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量；A deterministic component acquisition unit, configured to acquire a single deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant;
光伏电站出力确定单元，用于将所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量和所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量合成，得到所述光伏电站出力。The photovoltaic power station output determination unit is configured to synthesize the random component of the photovoltaic power station output and the deterministic component of the photovoltaic power station output to obtain the photovoltaic power station output.
可选的，optional,
所述时空相关性模型确定单元，具体包括：The space-time correlation model determination unit specifically includes:
时空相关性模型确定子单元，用于利用Copula函数C(·,·；θ)确定两个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型The spatio-temporal correlation model determination subunit is used to determine the spatio-temporal correlation model of the stochastic components of the output of the two photovoltaic power plants by using the Copula function C( , ; θ)
，其中，为光伏电站A的转移概率分布函数，为光伏电站B的转移概率分布函数，分别为光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻的出力的随机性分量，分别为光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，α、β、θA、θB、θ为系数；,in, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power plant A, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power station B, are the random components of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, respectively, are the random components of the photovoltaic power plant B’s output at time t-1 and time t, respectively, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the photovoltaic power plant B's output at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant B at time t-1, α, β, θ A , θ B , θ are coefficients;
系数确定子单元，用于获取所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的历史数据；并将所述历史数据代入所述时空相关性模型，计算得到系数α、β、θA、θB、θ的值。The coefficient determination subunit is used to obtain the historical data of the randomness component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant; and substitute the historical data into the spatio-temporal correlation model to calculate the coefficients α, β, θ A , θ B , θ value.
可选的，所述随机性分量确定单元，具体包括：Optionally, the randomness component determining unit specifically includes:
随机变量获取子单元，用于分别获取多个物理量和物理量 其中，w1t、w2t为两个相互独立的且在(0,1)上服从均匀分布的随机变量，t＝1,…n；Random variable acquisition subunit, used to acquire multiple physical quantities respectively and physical quantity in, w 1t and w 2t are two independent random variables that are uniformly distributed on (0,1), t=1,...n;
第一随机性分量计算子单元，用于根据公式计算光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， The first randomness component calculation subunit is used according to the formula Calculate the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t the inverse function of
第二随机性分量计算子单元，用于根据公式计算光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， The second randomness component calculation subunit is used according to the formula Calculate the random component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t the inverse function of
可选的，所述确定性分量获取单元，具体包括：Optionally, the deterministic component acquisition unit specifically includes:
确定性分量获取子单元，用于根据公式计算所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量Pc,t，其中，Istc为标准辐照强度，It为在无任何遮挡情况下，辐照强度的最大值，Pstc为标准条件下，所述光伏电站的出力；Deterministic components get subunits for use according to the formula Calculate the deterministic component P c,t of the output of the photovoltaic power station, where I stc is the standard radiation intensity, I t is the maximum value of the radiation intensity without any shading, and P stc is the standard condition. Describe the output of photovoltaic power plants;
所述光伏电站出力确定单元，具体包括：The output determination unit of the photovoltaic power station specifically includes:
光伏电站出力确定子单元，用于根据公式Pt＝Pc,t-ηt·Pc,t计算所述光伏电站的出力Pt，其中，ηt为所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量。The photovoltaic power station output determination subunit is used to calculate the output P t of the photovoltaic power station according to the formula P t =P c,t -η t P c, t , wherein, η t is the randomness component of the photovoltaic power station output .
根据本发明提供的具体实施例，本发明公开了以下技术效果：本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定方法及系统，利用Copula函数建立了多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型，该模型既包含了光伏电站出力随机性分量之间的空间相关性，又包含了单个光伏电站出力随机性分量的前后时间相关性，根据本发明提供的时空相关性模型，可以得到单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量，由于该光伏电站出力的随机分量由时空相关性模型得到，故该光伏电站出力的随机分量考虑了光伏电站之间的相关性以及光伏电站出力的随机性，进而，根据该光伏电站出力的随机性分量与确定性分量合成的光伏电站出力更加准确，更加与实际情况相符。According to the specific embodiments provided by the present invention, the present invention discloses the following technical effects: the method and system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station provided by the present invention uses the Copula function to establish the temporal-spatial correlation of a plurality of random components of the photovoltaic power station output model, which not only includes the spatial correlation between the output randomness components of photovoltaic power plants, but also includes the temporal correlation before and after the output randomness components of a single photovoltaic power plant. According to the spatiotemporal correlation model provided by the present invention, a single The random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station is described. Since the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station is obtained by the time-space correlation model, the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station takes into account the correlation between the photovoltaic power stations and the randomness of the output of the photovoltaic power station, and then , the output of the photovoltaic power station synthesized according to the random component and the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station is more accurate and more consistent with the actual situation.
附图说明Description of drawings
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案，下面将对实施例中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍，显而易见地，下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的一些实施例，对于本领域普通技术人员来讲，在不付出创造性劳动性的前提下，还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the accompanying drawings required in the embodiments. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description are only some of the present invention. Embodiments, for those of ordinary skill in the art, other drawings can also be obtained according to these drawings without paying creative labor.
图1为本发明实施例光伏电站出力的确定方法流程图；Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station according to an embodiment of the present invention;
图2为本发明实施例光伏电站出力的确定系统结构示意图。Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for determining output of a photovoltaic power station according to an embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式detailed description
下面将结合本发明实施例中的附图，对本发明实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整地描述，显然，所描述的实施例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例，而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例，本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例，都属于本发明保护的范围。The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
本发明的目的是提供一种光伏电站出力的确定方法及系统，考虑了多个光伏电站出力之间的时空相关性，能够准确的确定各光伏电站的出力。The object of the present invention is to provide a method and system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station, which can accurately determine the output of each photovoltaic power station by considering the temporal and spatial correlation between the outputs of multiple photovoltaic power stations.
为使本发明的上述目的、特征和优点能够更加明显易懂，下面结合附图和具体实施方式对本发明作进一步详细的说明。In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
图1为本发明实施例光伏电站出力的确定方法流程图，如图1所示，本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定方法步骤具体如下：Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 1 , the steps of the method for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station provided by the present invention are as follows:
步骤101：基于Copula函数确定多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型；Step 101: Determine a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the stochastic components of the output of the photovoltaic power plant based on the Copula function;
步骤102：根据所述时空相关性模型，确定单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量；Step 102: According to the spatio-temporal correlation model, determine the randomness component of the output of a single photovoltaic power plant;
步骤103：获取单个所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量；Step 103: Obtain the deterministic component of the output of a single photovoltaic power plant;
步骤104：将所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量和所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量合成，得到所述光伏电站出力。Step 104: Combining the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station and the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station to obtain the output of the photovoltaic power station.
其中，步骤101具体包括：利用Copula函数C(·,·；θ)确定两个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型Wherein, step 101 specifically includes: using the Copula function C( , ; θ) to determine the time-space correlation model of the randomness component of the output of the two photovoltaic power plants
，其中，为光伏电站A的转移概率分布函数，为光伏电站B的转移概率分布函数，分别为光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻的出力的随机性分量，分别为光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，α、β、θA、θB、θ为系数。所述系数α、β、θA、θB、θ的确定方法为：获取所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的历史数据；将所述历史数据代入所述时空相关性模型，计算得到系数α、β、θA、θB、θ的值。,in, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power plant A, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power station B, are the random components of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, respectively, are the random components of the photovoltaic power plant B’s output at time t-1 and time t, respectively, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the photovoltaic power plant B's output at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t-1, and α, β, θ A , θ B , θ are coefficients. The method for determining the coefficients α, β, θ A , θ B , θ is as follows: obtain the historical data of the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant; substitute the historical data into the spatio-temporal correlation model to calculate the coefficient α , β, θ A , θ B , and θ values.
步骤102具体包括：Step 102 specifically includes:
分别获取多个物理量和物理量其中， w1t、w2t为两个相互独立的且在(0,1)上服从均匀分布的随机变量，t＝1,…n；Get multiple physical quantities separately and physical quantity in, w 1t and w 2t are two independent random variables that are uniformly distributed on (0,1), t=1,...n;
根据公式计算光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， According to the formula Calculate the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t the inverse function of
根据公式计算光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函 数的反函数， According to the formula Calculate the random component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t the inverse function of
步骤103具体包括：Step 103 specifically includes:
根据公式计算所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量Pc,t，其中，Istc为标准辐照强度，It为在无任何遮挡情况下，辐照强度的最大值，Pstc为标准条件下，所述光伏电站的出力。According to the formula Calculate the deterministic component P c,t of the output of the photovoltaic power station, where I stc is the standard radiation intensity, I t is the maximum value of the radiation intensity without any shading, and P stc is the standard condition. Describe the output of photovoltaic power plants.
步骤104具体包括：Step 104 specifically includes:
根据公式Pt＝Pc,t-ηt·Pc,t计算所述光伏电站的出力Pt，其中，Pc,t为所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量，ηt为所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量。Calculate the output P t of the photovoltaic power station according to the formula P t =P c,t -η t ·P c, t, wherein, P c,t is the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station, and η t is the photovoltaic power station The stochastic component of power plant output.
本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定方法，利用Copula函数建立了多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型，该模型既包含了光伏电站出力随机性分量之间的空间相关性，又包含了单个光伏电站出力随机性分量的前后时间相关性，根据本发明提供的时空相关性模型，可以得到单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量，由于该光伏电站出力的随机分量由时空相关性模型得到，故该光伏电站出力的随机分量考虑了光伏电站之间的相关性以及光伏电站出力的随机性，进而，根据该光伏电站出力的随机性分量与确定性分量合成的光伏电站出力更加准确，更加与实际情况相符。The method for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station provided by the present invention uses the Copula function to establish a plurality of spatiotemporal correlation models of the randomness components of the output of the photovoltaic power station, and the model includes both the spatial correlation between the output randomness components of the photovoltaic power station , which also includes the temporal correlation of the output randomness component of a single photovoltaic power station. According to the time-space correlation model provided by the present invention, the randomness component of the output of a single photovoltaic power station can be obtained. Since the random component of the photovoltaic power station output is determined by the time-space The correlation model is obtained, so the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station takes into account the correlation between the photovoltaic power stations and the randomness of the output of the photovoltaic power station. It is more accurate and more in line with the actual situation.
作为本发明的又一实施例，以国内某光伏基地的两个电站为例进行分析，电站A、B的装机容量分别为30MW、20MW，采用的数据为2013年5月至2014年4月的实测数据，采样间隔为15min。电站A、B的太阳能电池板的倾斜角为39度，电站所处的纬度分别为36.18度、35.21度。光伏电站出力的确定方法具体如下：As another embodiment of the present invention, take two power stations in a photovoltaic base in China as an example for analysis. The installed capacity of power stations A and B are 30MW and 20MW respectively, and the data used are from May 2013 to April 2014. The measured data, the sampling interval is 15min. The inclination angles of the solar panels of power stations A and B are 39 degrees, and the latitudes of the power stations are 36.18 degrees and 35.21 degrees respectively. The determination method of photovoltaic power station output is as follows:
首先，基于Copula函数对多个光伏电站出力随机性分量时空相关性进行建模。具体的步骤如下所示：First, based on the Copula function, the temporal-spatial correlation of output randomness components of multiple photovoltaic power plants is modeled. The specific steps are as follows:
随机性分量时间相关性建模：Stochastic component time-dependent modeling:
H(ηt-1,ηt)＝C(F(ηt-1；α),F(ηt；α)；θ)H(η t-1 ,η t )=C(F(η t-1 ;α),F(η t ;α);θ)
式中，F(ηt；α)和F(ηt-1；α)代表前后两个时间点光伏功率随机性分量的一元概率分布函数。C(·,·；θ)是关于F(ηt；α)和F(ηt-1；α)的连续Copula函数。H(ηt-1,ηt)表示F(ηt；α)和F(ηt-1；α)的二元联合分布函数。In the formula, F(η t ; α) and F(η t-1 ; α) represent the unary probability distribution function of the random component of photovoltaic power at two time points before and after. C( , ; θ) is a continuous Copula function on F(η t ; α) and F(η t−1 ; α). H(η t-1 , η t ) represents the binary joint distribution function of F(η t -1; α) and F(η t-1 ; α).
随机性分量空间相关性建模：Randomness component spatial correlation modeling:
联合概率分布为H的随机性分量时间序列转移概率分布函数和密度函数分别为：The joint probability distribution is the randomness component time series transition probability distribution function and density function of H, respectively:
f(ηt|ηt-Δt；α,θ)＝c(F(ηt-1；α),F(ηt；α)；θ)·f(ηt；α)f(η t |η t-Δt ; α,θ)=c(F(η t-1 ;α),F(η t ;α);θ) f(η t ;α)
假设某区域内两个光伏电站A、B的随机性分量分别为ηA和ηB，则对应的转移概率分布函数分别为Assuming that the randomness components of two photovoltaic power stations A and B in a certain area are η A and η B respectively, the corresponding transition probability distribution functions are respectively
利用Copula函数C*(·,·；θ*)来描述变量和的联合概率分布函数：Use Copula function C * (·,·;θ * ) to describe variables with The joint probability distribution function for :
式中，α,β,θA,θB,θ*均为待定参数。不仅包含了电站A和B出力随机性分量之间的空间相关性，又包含了单个电站出力随机性分量前后的时间相关性。In the formula, α, β, θ A , θ B , θ * are all undetermined parameters. It not only includes the spatial correlation between the output randomness components of power stations A and B, but also includes the temporal correlation before and after the output randomness components of a single power station.
其中，在时空相关性模型中，待定系数的确定方法为：Among them, in the spatio-temporal correlation model, the determination method of the undetermined coefficient is:
获取光伏电站t时刻的出力：Obtain the output of the photovoltaic power plant at time t:
式中，Pstc为标准条件下(辐照强度Istc＝1000W/m2，环境温度Tstc＝25℃)电站的输出功率；αT表示电池板的温度系数；Ir,t表示t时刻辐照强度的实测值； Tt表示t时刻的环境温度。光伏电站的出力主要由辐照强度和环境温度决定，而辐照强度还与云层遮挡、天气情况等因素相关。In the formula, P stc is the output power of the power station under standard conditions (irradiation intensity I stc = 1000W/m 2 , ambient temperature Tstc = 25°C); α T represents the temperature coefficient of the solar panels; I r,t represents the radiation at time t The measured value of the intensity of light; T t represents the ambient temperature at time t. The output of photovoltaic power plants is mainly determined by the radiation intensity and ambient temperature, and the radiation intensity is also related to factors such as cloud cover and weather conditions.
获取光伏功率确定性分量定义如下：Obtaining the deterministic component of photovoltaic power is defined as follows:
式中，It表示在无任何遮挡情况下，辐照强度的最大值；Pc,t表示光伏电站出力的确定性分量，该值不考虑云层遮挡、天气情况等一系列因素，只与该电站所处的地理位置、海拔高度和时间有关。In the formula, I t represents the maximum value of the radiation intensity without any occlusion; P c,t represents the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station, which does not consider a series of factors such as cloud cover and weather conditions, and only correlates with the The geographical location, altitude and time of the power station are related.
其中，It的计算方法具体如下：Among them, the calculation method of I t is as follows:
根据公式计算地球大气层上的辐射强度，式中，I0代表地球大气层上的太阳辐射量；S0表示辐照强度常数，即单位面积内进入大气的辐射量，S0≈1367W/m2；N代表该日在一整年的序号。According to the formula Calculate the radiation intensity on the earth's atmosphere, where I 0 represents the solar radiation on the earth's atmosphere; S 0 represents the radiation intensity constant, that is, the radiation entering the atmosphere per unit area, S 0 ≈1367W/m 2 ; N represents The ordinal number of the day in a year.
根据公式Ib＝I0τbsina计算太阳直射辐射量，其中， sina＝sinφsinδ+cosφcosδcosw，Ib表示太阳直射辐照强度；τb表示太阳直射辐照强度的透明度；Mh表示大气质量，与电站所处的海拔有关；a表示电站所在地的太阳高度角；φ表示该地的纬度；δ表示太阳的赤纬角；w表示太阳的时角，与每天的时间有关，According to the formula I b = I 0 τ b sina to calculate the amount of direct solar radiation, where, sina=sinφsinδ+cosφcosδcosw, I b represents the intensity of direct solar radiation; τ b represents the transparency of the intensity of direct solar radiation; M h represents the quality of the air, which is related to the altitude of the power station; a represents the solar elevation angle of the power station; φ Indicates the latitude of the place; δ indicates the declination angle of the sun; w indicates the hour angle of the sun, which is related to the time of day,
根据公式计算太阳散射辐照强度，其中，τd＝0.271-0.274τb，Id表示散射辐照强度；τd表示太阳散射辐照强度的透明度；k的取值与大气质量有关，具体的范围如下所示：According to the formula Calculation of solar diffuse radiation intensity, wherein, τ d =0.271-0.274τ b , I d represents the diffuse radiation intensity; τ d represents the transparency of solar diffuse radiation intensity; the value of k is related to the air quality, and the specific range is as follows Shown:
在不考虑云层遮挡、天气情况等一系列因素下，根据公式It＝Ib+Id计算太阳总辐射强度。Without considering a series of factors such as cloud cover and weather conditions, the total solar radiation intensity is calculated according to the formula I t =I b +I d .
根据光伏电站实际出力与确定性出力计算光伏功率随机性分量：Calculate the random component of photovoltaic power according to the actual output and deterministic output of the photovoltaic power station:
式中，ηt表示在的是光伏电站实际出力与确定性出力的差值，由于该值考虑了云层遮挡、天气情况、温度变化等随机性因素的影响，因此称为随机性分量。In the formula, η t represents the difference between the actual output of the photovoltaic power station and the deterministic output. Since this value takes into account the influence of random factors such as cloud cover, weather conditions, and temperature changes, it is called the random component.
根据上述公式以及历史数据可以计算出光伏电站出力的随机性分量的历史数据，将光伏电站出力的随机性分量的历史数据带入到光伏电站出力随机性分量的时空相关性模型的表达式中，便可求解出时空相关性模型中的待定系数。进而，使光伏电站出力随机性分量的时空相关性模型得到了确定。According to the above formula and historical data, the historical data of the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station can be calculated, and the historical data of the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station can be brought into the expression of the temporal-spatial correlation model of the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station. The undetermined coefficients in the space-time correlation model can be solved. Furthermore, the temporal-spatial correlation model of the output randomness component of the photovoltaic power station is determined.
在得到光伏电站出力随机性分量的时空相关性模型后，根据该模型确定光伏电站出力的随机性分量：After obtaining the spatio-temporal correlation model of the output randomness component of the photovoltaic power station, the randomness component of the output of the photovoltaic power station is determined according to the model:
模拟抽样产生两个相互独立的且在(0,1)上服从均匀分布的随机变量w1,w2；Simulated sampling produces two independent random variables w 1 and w 2 that are uniformly distributed on (0,1);
基于所建立的光伏电站出力随机性分量时空相关性模型C*(·,·；θ*)，令Based on the established spatio-temporal correlation model C * (·,·; θ * ) of the stochastic component of photovoltaic power plant output, let
vA＝w1 v A =w 1
式中， In the formula,
重复上两步n次，得到向量的n个观测值，这些观测值满足Copula函数C*(·,·；θ*)；Repeat the previous two steps n times to get the vector n observations of , these observations satisfy the Copula function C * ( , ; θ * );
对序列进行下面各步骤的处理：pair sequence Carry out the following steps:
取作为序列的第一个值；对给定的时间相关性模型递归计算：Pick as the first value of the sequence; for the given temporal correlation model Recursive calculation:
式中， In the formula,
再依次计算：Then calculate in turn:
可以得到序列的分布为F(·；α)，且满足时间相关性函数模型C(·,·；θA)。sequence can be obtained The distribution of is F(·; α), and it satisfies the time correlation function model C(·,·; θ A ).
对于序列与求取的步骤相同，只要把C(·,·；θA)换成C(·,·；θB)，可以得到序列它的分布函数为G(·；β)，且满足时间相关性函数模型C(·,·；θB)。for sequence and seeking The steps are the same, as long as C(·,·; θ A ) is replaced by C(·,·; θ B ), the sequence can be obtained Its distribution function is G(·;β), and it satisfies the time correlation function model C(·,·;θ B ).
在的相应时刻根据公式计算光伏电站出力的确定性分量，将确定性分量与随机性分量，通过下式进行合成，得到光伏电站A和B的出力序列。exist The corresponding moments according to the formula Calculate the deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station, and combine the deterministic component and the random component through the following formula to obtain the output sequence of the photovoltaic power station A and B.
本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定方法，利用Copula函数建立了多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型，该模型既包含了光伏电站出力随机性分量之间的空间相关性，又包含了单个光伏电站出力随机性分量的前后时间相关性，根据本发明提供的时空相关性模型，可以得到单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量，由于该光伏电站出力的随机分量由时空相关性模型得到，故该光伏电站出力的随机分量考虑了光伏电站之间的相关性以及光伏电站出力的随机性，进而，根据该光伏电站出力的随机性分量与确定性分量合成的光伏电站出力更加准确，更加与实际情况相符。The method for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station provided by the present invention uses the Copula function to establish a plurality of spatiotemporal correlation models of the randomness components of the output of the photovoltaic power station, and the model includes both the spatial correlation between the output randomness components of the photovoltaic power station , which also includes the temporal correlation of the output randomness component of a single photovoltaic power station. According to the time-space correlation model provided by the present invention, the randomness component of the output of a single photovoltaic power station can be obtained. Since the random component of the photovoltaic power station output is determined by the time-space The correlation model is obtained, so the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station takes into account the correlation between the photovoltaic power stations and the randomness of the output of the photovoltaic power station. It is more accurate and more in line with the actual situation.
图2为本发明实施例光伏电站出力的确定系统结构示意图，如图2所示，本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定系统包括：Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 2, the system for determining the output of a photovoltaic power station provided by the present invention includes:
时空相关性模型确定单元201，用于基于Copula函数确定多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型；A spatio-temporal correlation model determining unit 201, configured to determine a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the stochastic components of the output of the photovoltaic power plant based on the Copula function;
随机性分量确定单元202，用于根据所述时空相关性模型，确定单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量；A random component determining unit 202, configured to determine a single random component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant according to the spatiotemporal correlation model;
确定性分量获取单元203，用于获取单个所述光伏电站出力的确定性分 量；A deterministic component acquisition unit 203, configured to acquire a single deterministic component of the output of the photovoltaic power station;
光伏电站出力确定单元204，用于将所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量和所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量合成，得到所述光伏电站出力。The photovoltaic power station output determination unit 204 is configured to combine the random component of the photovoltaic power station output and the deterministic component of the photovoltaic power station output to obtain the photovoltaic power station output.
其中，所述时空相关性模型确定单元201，具体包括：Wherein, the spatio-temporal correlation model determining unit 201 specifically includes:
时空相关性模型确定子单元，用于利用Copula函数C(·,·；θ)确定两个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型The spatio-temporal correlation model determination subunit is used to determine the spatio-temporal correlation model of the stochastic components of the output of the two photovoltaic power plants by using the Copula function C( , ; θ)
，其中，为光伏电站A的转移概率分布函数，为光伏电站B的转移概率分布函数，分别为光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻的出力的随机性分量，分别为光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站A在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻、t时刻出力的随机性分量的相关性，表示光伏电站B在t-1时刻出力的随机性分量的概率分布函数，α、β、θA、θB、θ为系数；,in, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power plant A, is the transition probability distribution function of photovoltaic power station B, are the random components of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, respectively, are the random components of the photovoltaic power plant B’s output at time t-1 and time t, respectively, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t-1, Indicates the correlation of the random component of the photovoltaic power plant B's output at time t-1 and time t, Indicates the probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant B at time t-1, α, β, θ A , θ B , θ are coefficients;
系数确定子单元，用于获取所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的历史数据；并将所述历史数据代入所述时空相关性模型，计算得到系数α、β、θA、θB、θ的值。The coefficient determination subunit is used to obtain the historical data of the randomness component of the output of the photovoltaic power plant; and substitute the historical data into the spatio-temporal correlation model to calculate the coefficients α, β, θ A , θ B , θ value.
所述随机性分量确定单元202，具体包括：The randomness component determining unit 202 specifically includes:
随机变量获取子单元，用于分别获取多个物理量和物理量 其中，w1t、w2t为两个相互独立的且在(0,1)上服从均匀分布的随机变量，t＝1,…n；Random variable acquisition subunit, used to acquire multiple physical quantities respectively and physical quantity in, w 1t and w 2t are two independent random variables that are uniformly distributed on (0,1), t=1,...n;
第一随机性分量计算子单元，用于根据公式计算光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站A在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， The first randomness component calculation subunit is used according to the formula Calculate the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the random component of the output of photovoltaic power plant A at time t the inverse function of
第二随机性分量计算子单元，用于根据公式计算光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量，其中，为光伏电站B在t时刻的出力的随机性分量的转移概率分布函数的反函数， The second randomness component calculation subunit is used according to the formula Calculate the random component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t, where, is the transition probability distribution function of the randomness component of the output of photovoltaic power station B at time t the inverse function of
所述确定性分量获取单元203，具体包括：The deterministic component acquisition unit 203 specifically includes:
确定性分量获取子单元，用于根据公式计算所述光伏电站出力的确定性分量Pc,t，其中，Istc为标准辐照强度，It为在无任何遮挡情况下，辐照强度的最大值，Pstc为标准条件下，所述光伏电站的出力；Deterministic components get subunits for use according to the formula Calculate the deterministic component P c,t of the output of the photovoltaic power station, where I stc is the standard radiation intensity, I t is the maximum value of the radiation intensity without any shading, and P stc is the standard condition. Describe the output of photovoltaic power plants;
所述光伏电站出力确定单元204，具体包括：The photovoltaic power station output determination unit 204 specifically includes:
光伏电站出力确定子单元，用于根据公式Pt＝Pc,t-ηt·Pc,t计算所述光伏电站的出力Pt。The output determination subunit of the photovoltaic power station is used to calculate the output P t of the photovoltaic power station according to the formula P t =P c,t -η t ·P c, t.
本发明提供的光伏电站出力的确定系统，利用Copula函数建立了多个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量的时空相关性模型，该模型既包含了光伏电站出力随机性分量之间的空间相关性，又包含了单个光伏电站出力随机性分量的前后时间相关性，根据本发明提供的时空相关性模型，可以得到单个所述光伏电站出力的随机性分量，由于该光伏电站出力的随机分量由时空相关性模型得到，故该光伏电站出力的随机分量考虑了光伏电站之间的相关性以及光伏电站出力的随机性，进而，根据该光伏电站出力的随机性分量与确定性分量合成的光伏电站出力更加准确，更加与实际情况相符。The system for determining the output of photovoltaic power plants provided by the present invention uses the Copula function to establish a plurality of spatio-temporal correlation models of the random components of the output of photovoltaic power plants, and the model includes the spatial correlation between the random components of the output of photovoltaic power plants , which also includes the temporal correlation of the output randomness component of a single photovoltaic power station. According to the time-space correlation model provided by the present invention, the randomness component of the output of a single photovoltaic power station can be obtained. Since the random component of the photovoltaic power station output is determined by the time-space The correlation model is obtained, so the random component of the output of the photovoltaic power station takes into account the correlation between the photovoltaic power stations and the randomness of the output of the photovoltaic power station. It is more accurate and more in line with the actual situation.
本说明书中各个实施例采用递进的方式描述，每个实施例重点说明的都是与其他实施例的不同之处，各个实施例之间相同相似部分互相参见即可。对于 实施例公开的系统而言，由于其与实施例公开的方法相对应，所以描述的比较简单，相关之处参见方法部分说明即可。Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on the difference from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts of each embodiment can be referred to each other. As for the system disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and for the related parts, please refer to the description of the method part.
本文中应用了具体个例对本发明的原理及实施方式进行了阐述，以上实施例的说明只是用于帮助理解本发明的方法及其核心思想；同时，对于本领域的一般技术人员，依据本发明的思想，在具体实施方式及应用范围上均会有改变之处。综上所述，本说明书内容不应理解为对本发明的限制。In this paper, specific examples have been used to illustrate the principle and implementation of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method of the present invention and its core idea; meanwhile, for those of ordinary skill in the art, according to the present invention Thoughts, there will be changes in specific implementation methods and application ranges. In summary, the contents of this specification should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
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