CN107390661A - A kind of method for early warning of process flow industry process abnormal state - Google Patents
A kind of method for early warning of process flow industry process abnormal state Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method for early warning of process flow industry process abnormal state, sets trend and the warning information of limit value first, trending early warning is divided into 4 classes according to operating mode trend, concurrently sets the bound section of duty parameter limit value early warning;Time shaft is then based on, choosing p sampled point forward using current point as starting point carries out recurrence calculating, obtains slope and coefficient correlation;Move forward and 1 sampled point and compute repeatedly n times altogether every time then according to above-mentioned steps;The last identification process according to trending early warning, the trending early warning classification of current working is determined, according to the identification process of limit value early warning, judge whether to produce limit value early warning, and the recognition result of integrative trend early warning and limit value early warning, judge the warning level of current operating condition.This method is practical, reliable, has both reduced the probability for causing erroneous judgement because of noise data, and and can gives warning in advance to unusual service condition.This method to timely troubleshooting, reduce breakdown loss, ensure that production safety has important application value.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the fault detect in process flow industry process field and warning aspect, based on trend and the class early warning of limit value two
Information, establish real-time detection and the method for early warning of a kind of abnormality.
Background technology
Failure or abnormality in the process industry such as oil, petrochemical industry field, often reported using Distributed Control System (DCS)
It is alert.However, for DCS generally using fixed bound alarm, existing can not provide that early warning, alarm are not in time etc. many to ask at present
Topic.
Have the method for early warning of some failures or exception at present, be broadly divided into based on model and big based on data-driven two
Class.Method based on model needs profound understanding and grasps accurate technical process mechanism, is greatly limited in actual applications
System;Method based on data-driven is to gather real-time and historical data from DCS, then carries out data processing and judgement.But data
The method of driving remains in some problems in actual applications, for example, the data of measurement easily cause failure often with noise
Wrong report;And the filtering method used sometimes to eliminate noise is readily incorporated lag issues, alarm is caused not in time.Therefore,
A practicality, reliable abnormality early warning system how are established, balance can be found between accuracy, real-time, in recent years
Increasingly cause concern.
The content of the invention
It is extremely pre- to establish process status in view of the above-mentioned problems, combine trend and the early warning identification information of limit value by the present invention
Alert judgment rule and flow, detection and early warning in real time can be carried out to changing violent or gradual change sexual abnormality.
The present invention uses following technical scheme:
A kind of method for early warning of process flow industry process abnormal state, this method combine the early warning identification letter of trend and limit value
Breath, establishes the judgment rule and flow of process status abnormity early warning, has steps of:
(1) trending early warning is divided into 4 classes according to operating mode trend:Trend rapid increase, trend rapid decrease, the big amplitude wave of trend
Dynamic and trend is normal;
(2) the upper limit x in duty parameter normal operation section is sethWith lower limit xl;
(3) real-time running data is extracted from monitoring system, using current sampling point as starting point, p history samples point is returned
Return calculating, obtain slope k1And correlation coefficient r1;
(4) based on time shaft 1 sampled point of reach, again to p sampled point digital simulation slope k2And correlation coefficient r2, weight
This multiple process, until obtaining k1~knAnd r1~rn;
(5) foundation trending early warning identification process, the trending early warning classification of current working is determined:If trend is rapid increase, soon
Speed declines or fluctuation, then performs step (6);If trend is normal, step is performed (7);
(6), according to limit value early warning identification process, judge whether to produce limit value early warning;
(7) the recognition result of integrative trend and limit value, the warning level of the current operating condition of judgment means.
Specifically, process provides to trend rapid increase in current working and the identification process of rapid decrease early warning:
(1) r is counted1~rnIn coefficient correlation early warning range q1l≤|r|≤q1rRatio w1, and with threshold value m1Compare, if
w1< m1The trending early warning that fluctuation is then carried out to current working identifies;If w1≥m1Then go to step (2);
(2) k is counted1~knIn slope early warning range ul≤|k|≤urRatio w2, and with threshold value m2Compare, if just oblique
Rate section and w2≥m2Then it is determined as trend rapid increase;If between negative slope region and w2≥m2Then it is determined as trend rapid decrease;
If w2< m2Then it is determined as that trend is normal.
Specifically, process provides the identification process to trend fluctuation early warning in current working:
(1) r is counted1~rnIn coefficient correlation early warning range q2l≤|r|≤q2rRatio w3, and with threshold value m3Compare, if
w3< m3Then it is determined as normal trend, if w3≥m3Then go to step (2);
(2), using current sampling point as starting point, 2 are chosen forward based on time shaftpIndividual sampled point simultaneously calculates standard deviation v, with threshold value
m4Compare, if v >=m4Then it is judged as trend fluctuation, if v < m4Then it is judged as normal trend.
Specifically, process provides the identification process to limit value early warning in current working, chosen forward based on time shaft
3 sampled points including current point are predicted to following 3 sampled points, are comprised the following steps that:
(1) current sampling point is x (p), and T is the sampling period, sets weight coefficient α, β and γ, makes alpha+beta+γ=1, extracts x
(p), x (p-1) and x (p-2) amount to 3 sampled points;
(2) K is calculated according to following formula(0) 1、K(0) 2And K(0) 3
According to formulaCalculateAccording to formulaMeter
Calculate
(3) K is calculated according to following formula(1) 1、K(1) 2And K(1) 3
According to formulaCalculateAccording to formulaMeter
Calculate
(4) K is calculated according to following formula(2) 1、K(2) 2And K(2) 3
According to formulaCalculateAccording to formula
Calculate
(5) ifWithIn have the limit value that 2 and the above exceed given duty parameter, that is, produce
Raw limit value early warning.
Preferably, identification information of this method based on trend and limit value early warning, the pre- of a set of process status exception is established
Alert judgment rule, wherein will determine that result is divided into three warning levels:Green, yellow and red, its Green are representing operating mode just
Often, yellow represents to point out, red for alarm state, and specific rules are as follows:
Classification | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Trend rapid increase | It is | It is | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no |
Trend rapid decrease | It is no | It is no | It is | It is | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no |
Trend fluctuation | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is | It is | It is no | It is no |
Trend is normal | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is no | It is | It is |
Whether limit value is exceeded | It is | It is no | It is | It is no | It is | It is no | It is | It is no |
Warning level | It is red | Yellow | It is red | Yellow | It is red | Yellow | It is red | Green |
Beneficial effect:
The present invention is directed to the actual conditions of abnormal state monitoring in real time and pre-alerting ability deficiency in process industry, based on trend
Early warning and the identification information of limit value early warning, the abnormal early warning judgment rule of a set of process status is established, and provide current operation
The warning level of operating mode.This method is practical, reliable, has both reduced the probability for causing erroneous judgement because of noise data, and can is to exception
Operating mode gives warning in advance.This method to timely troubleshooting, reduce breakdown loss, ensure that production safety has and important apply valency
Value.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the early warning overview flow chart of process flow industry process abnormal state
Fig. 2 is the regression figure that current sampling point is included in case 1
Fig. 3 is the Trend value prognostic chart of the trending early warning of case 1
Fig. 4 is the regression figure that current sampling point is included in case 2
Fig. 5 is the Trend value prognostic chart of the trending early warning of case 2
Specific implementation process
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and two specific examples, detailed calculating process and concrete operations flow are provided, with right
The present invention is described further.The implementation case is implemented under premised on technical solution of the present invention, but the guarantor of the present invention
Shield scope is not limited to following case study on implementation.
Case 1
By taking primary distillation tower tower top pressure in the Atmospheric vacuum technique of certain Petrochemical Enterprises as an example, selection is the enterprise in November, 2016
25 days 23:25 to 26 days 1:Every the data of collection in 5 minutes in 30 periods, according to the abnormal state early warning rule and stream established
Journey, complete the anomalous identification of primary distillation tower tower top pressure.
The implementing procedure of case 1 is as shown in figure 1, specific implementation steps are as follows:
(1) trend and the warning information of limit value are set
Trending early warning is divided into 4 classes according to operating mode trend:Trend rapid increase, trend rapid decrease, trend fluctuation
And normal trend, setting duty parameter upper limit x is required according to site techniqueh=343kPa and lower limit xl=208kPa.
(2) slope calculations and coefficient correlation are returned
26 sample point datas are extracted first, and data are as shown in table 1:
The primary distillation tower tower top pressure data of table 1
The sampled point quantity p=7 of recurrence is set in present case, based on time shaft, selected forward using current sampling point as starting point
7 sampled points are taken to carry out least square regression.Regression result is as shown in Figure 2, it is seen that, regression equation y=-2.07x+208.93,
Fit slope k1=-2.07, correlation coefficient r1=-0.91.
1 sampled point of each reach simultaneously calculates, and finally gives the slope k collected1~k20And correlation coefficient r1~r20, specifically
Numerical value is as shown in table 2:
The regression coefficient of table 2 collects
Slope (kPa/h) | Coefficient correlation | |
1 | -2.07 | -0.91 |
2 | -3.12 | -0.93 |
3 | -4.21 | -0.96 |
4 | -5.20 | -0.99 |
5 | -5.93 | -1.00 |
6 | -6.21 | -1.00 |
7 | -6.21 | -1.00 |
8 | -6.21 | -1.00 |
9 | -6.21 | -1.00 |
10 | -6.21 | -1.00 |
11 | -6.21 | -1.00 |
12 | -5.98 | -1.00 |
13 | -5.33 | -0.99 |
14 | -4.43 | -0.97 |
15 | -3.45 | -0.95 |
16 | -2.54 | -0.95 |
17 | -1.86 | -0.98 |
18 | -1.59 | -1.00 |
19 | -1.59 | -1.00 |
20 | -1.59 | -1.00 |
(3) trending early warning identifies
The coefficient correlation scope for the trending early warning that this case is set as 0.50≤| r |≤1.00, threshold value m1=0.60;Trend
The negative slope upper limit of early warning is -2.50kPa/h, threshold value m2=0.65.Correlation coefficient r1~r20Ratio in trending early warning section
Example:Slope k1~k20Belong to the ratio in trending early warning section:It is all higher than the threshold of setting
Value, and the coefficient correlation section of trending early warning is for minus zone between, therefore the result that trending early warning identifies is:Trend rapid decrease.
(4) limit value early warning identifies
The current sampling point of this case is x (p)=208.04kPa, and the sampling period isWeight is set
Factor alpha=0.5, β=0.3 and γ=0.2, following three sampled points are predicted based on x (p-2), x (p-1) and x (p), it is specific to calculate
It is as follows:
1. calculate respectively
WithBand
Enter formula and obtain predicted value
2. calculate respectively
WithBand
Enter formula and obtain predicted value
3. calculate respectively
WithBand
Enter formula and obtain predicted value
The Trend value prediction calculated is as shown in Figure 3.
4. countWithIn beyond normal operation section have 3, produce limit value early warning.
(5) the early warning recognition result of integrative trend and limit value, the operating mode both trend rapid decrease, limit value early warning is produced again, according to
According to the judgment rule of process status abnormity early warning, current point in time 26 days 01 November in 2016 is drawn:30 operating mode warning levels are
It is red.
Case 2
Again by taking normal pressure column overhead temperatures in enterprise's Atmospheric vacuum technique as an example, choose on 2 4th, 2,017 11:15 to 13:20
Normal pressure column overhead temperatures data in period every sampling in 5 minutes once, it is complete according to the fault pre-alarming rule and flow established
Into the anomalous identification of normal pressure column overhead temperatures parameter, specific implementation steps are as follows:
(1) trend and the warning information of limit value are set
Trending early warning is divided into 4 classes according to operating mode trend, setting duty parameter upper limit x is required according to site techniqueh=146
DEG C and lower limit xl=128 DEG C.
(2) slope calculations and coefficient correlation are returned
26 sample point datas are extracted, as shown in table 3:
The normal pressure column overhead temperatures data of table 3
Sequence number | Date | Time point | Temperature (DEG C) |
1 | 2017/2/4 | 11:15 | 141.79 |
2 | 2017/2/4 | 11:20 | 142.17 |
3 | 2017/2/4 | 11:25 | 142.29 |
4 | 2017/2/4 | 11:30 | 142.49 |
5 | 2017/2/4 | 11:35 | 142.58 |
6 | 2017/2/4 | 11:40 | 142.92 |
7 | 2017/2/4 | 11:45 | 143.33 |
8 | 2017/2/4 | 11:50 | 143.39 |
9 | 2017/2/4 | 11:55 | 143.53 |
10 | 2017/2/4 | 12:00 | 143.48 |
11 | 2017/2/4 | 12:05 | 143.30 |
12 | 2017/2/4 | 12:10 | 143.37 |
13 | 2017/2/4 | 12:15 | 143.42 |
14 | 2017/2/4 | 12:20 | 143.45 |
15 | 2017/2/4 | 12:25 | 143.60 |
16 | 2017/2/4 | 12:30 | 143.65 |
17 | 2017/2/4 | 12:35 | 143.69 |
18 | 2017/2/4 | 12:40 | 143.75 |
19 | 2017/2/4 | 12:45 | 143.71 |
20 | 2017/2/4 | 12:50 | 144.15 |
21 | 2017/2/4 | 12:55 | 144.18 |
22 | 2017/2/4 | 13:00 | 144.23 |
23 | 2017/2/4 | 13:05 | 144.27 |
24 | 2017/2/4 | 13:10 | 144.11 |
25 | 2017/2/4 | 13:15 | 144.79 |
26 | 2017/2/4 | 13:20 | 144.96 |
The sampled point quantity p=7 that setting returns, regression result are as shown in Figure 4.Digital simulation slope and coefficient correlation, are obtained
To k1~k20And r1~r20, concrete numerical value is as shown in table 4:
The regression coefficient of table 4 collects
(3) trending early warning identifies
The coefficient correlation scope for the trending early warning that this case is set as 0.50≤| r |≤1.00, threshold value m1=0.60;Trend
The positive slope lower limit of early warning is 0.80, threshold value m2=0.65.Correlation coefficient r1~r20Ratio in trending early warning section is
0.85, slope k1~k20Ratio in trending early warning section is 0.70, is all higher than the threshold value each set, and trending early warning
Coefficient correlation section is positive section, therefore the result of trending early warning identification is:Trend rapid increase.
(4) limit value early warning identifies
The current sampling point of this case is x (p)=144.96 DEG C, setting weight coefficient α=0.5, β=0.3 and γ=
0.2, following three sampled points are predicted based on x (p-2), x (p-1) and x (p), as shown in figure 5, being specifically calculated as follows:
1. slope calculations obtain K respectively(0) 1=2.04 DEG C/h, K(0) 2=8.16 DEG C/h and K(0) 3=5.10 DEG C/h, synthesis is
Obtain slope and weight coefficient calculatesBring formula into and obtain predicted value
2. slope calculations obtain K respectively(1) 1=4.44 DEG C/h, K(1) 2=2.04 DEG C/h and K(1) 3=3.24 DEG C/h, synthesis is
Obtain slope and weight coefficient calculatesBring formula into and obtain predicted value
3. slope calculations obtain K respectively(2) 1=3.48 DEG C/h, K(2) 2=4.44 DEG C/h and K(2)3=3.96 DEG C/h, synthesis is
Obtain slope and weight coefficient calculatesBring formula into and obtain predicted value
4. countWithIn exceed set interval and have 0, do not produce limit value early warning.
(5) integrative trend and the early warning identification information of limit value, the operating mode is trend rapid increase, but does not produce limit value early warning,
According to judgment rule, current point in time 2017 year 2 month is drawn 4 days 13:20 operating mode warning levels are yellow.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of method for early warning of process flow industry process abnormal state, it is characterised in that have steps of:
(1) trending early warning is divided into 4 classes according to operating mode trend:Trend rapid increase, trend rapid decrease, trend fluctuation and
Trend is normal;
(2) the upper limit x in duty parameter normal operation section is sethWith lower limit xl;
(3) real-time running data is extracted from monitoring system, using current sampling point as starting point, recurrence meter is carried out to p history samples point
Calculate, obtain slope k1And correlation coefficient r1;
(4) based on time shaft 1 sampled point of reach, again to p sampled point digital simulation slope k2And correlation coefficient r2, repeat this
Process, until obtaining k1~knAnd r1~rn;
(5) foundation trending early warning identification process, the trending early warning classification of current working is determined:If trend is rapid increase, it is quick under
Drop or fluctuation, then perform step (6);If trend is normal, step is performed (7);
(6), according to limit value early warning identification process, judge whether to produce limit value early warning;
(7) the recognition result of integrative trend and limit value, the warning level of the current operating condition of judgment means.
2. the method for early warning of a kind of process flow industry process abnormal state according to claim 1, it is characterised in that to current
Trend rapid increase and the early warning of trend rapid decrease use following identification process in operating mode:
(1) r is counted1~rnIn [q1l, q1r] ratio w1, q1lAnd q1rThe respectively lower and upper limit of the early warning of coefficient correlation first;
w1And with threshold value m1Compare, if w1< m1The trending early warning that trend fluctuation is then carried out to current working identifies;If w1≥m1Then
Go to step (2);
(2) k is counted1~knIn [ul, ur] ratio w2, ulAnd urThe respectively lower and upper limit of slope early warning;w2And and threshold value
m2Compare, if between positive slope region and w2≥m2Then it is determined as trend rapid increase;If between negative slope region and w2≥m2Then judge
For trend rapid decrease;If w2< m2Then it is determined as that trend is normal.
3. the method for early warning of a kind of process flow industry process abnormal state according to claim 2, it is characterised in that to current
The early warning of trend fluctuation uses following identification process in operating mode:
(1) r is counted1~rnIn [q2l, q2r] ratio w3, q2lAnd q2rThe respectively lower and upper limit of the early warning of coefficient correlation second;
w3And with threshold value m3Compare, if w3< m3Then it is determined as normal trend, if w3≥m3Then go to step (2);
(2), using current sampling point as starting point, choose 2p sampled point forward based on time shaft and calculate standard deviation v, v and threshold value m4Than
Compared with if v >=m4Then it is judged as trend fluctuation, if v < m4Then it is judged as normal trend.
4. the method for early warning of a kind of process flow industry process abnormal state according to claim 1, it is characterised in that limit value is pre-
Alert identification process, choose 3 sampled points including current point forward based on time shaft and following 3 sampled points are carried out in advance
Survey, comprise the following steps that:
(1) current sampling point is x (p), and T is the sampling period, sets weight coefficient α, β and γ, makes alpha+beta+γ=1, extraction x (p), x
(p-1) and x (p-2) amounts to 3 sampled points;
(2) K is calculated according to following formula(0) 1、K(0) 2And K(0) 3
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(3) K is calculated according to following formula(1) 1、K(1) 2And K(1) 3
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<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>-</mo>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>-</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mrow>
<msub>
<msup>
<mi>K</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</msup>
<mn>3</mn>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<mover>
<mi>x</mi>
<mo>^</mo>
</mover>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>-</mo>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>-</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mn>2</mn>
<mi>T</mi>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
</mfenced>
According to formulaCalculateAccording to formulaCalculate
(4) K is calculated according to following formula(2) 1、K(2) 2And K(2) 3
<mfenced open = "{" close = "">
<mtable>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mrow>
<msub>
<msup>
<mi>K</mi>
<mrow>
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<mn>2</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</msup>
<mn>1</mn>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<mover>
<mi>x</mi>
<mo>^</mo>
</mover>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
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<mover>
<mi>x</mi>
<mo>^</mo>
</mover>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mrow>
<msub>
<msup>
<mi>K</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</msup>
<mn>2</mn>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
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<mi>x</mi>
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</mover>
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<mn>2</mn>
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</mrow>
<mo>-</mo>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mrow>
<msub>
<msup>
<mi>K</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
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</mrow>
</msup>
<mn>3</mn>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
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<mrow>
<mover>
<mi>x</mi>
<mo>^</mo>
</mover>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
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<mn>2</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>-</mo>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>p</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mn>2</mn>
<mi>T</mi>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
</mfenced>
According to formulaCalculateAccording to formulaCalculate
(5) ifWithIn have the limit value that 2 and the above exceed given duty parameter, that is, produce limit
It is worth early warning.
5. the method for early warning of a kind of process flow industry process abnormal state according to claim 1, it is characterised in that be based on
The early warning identification information of gesture and limit value, the abnormal early warning judgment rule of process status is established, wherein will determine that result is divided into 3 in advance
Alert rank:Green, yellow and red, its Green represent that operating mode is normal, and yellow represents to point out, red for alarm shape
State, specific rules are as follows:
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