CN107390297A - The method of cardiocerebrovasculaevents events is induced using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning - Google Patents
The method of cardiocerebrovasculaevents events is induced using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of method that cardiocerebrovasculaevents events are induced using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning, this method carries out Conjoint Analysis to multiband observation data in Space weather event, and wherein multiband observation data include optical observation data, radio observation data, high-energy ray detection data, solar-terrestrial physics ambient parameter and ultra rays data on flows;According to the time that observation data occur and the probability that may influence earth's magnetic field, the pre- alarm probability for observing multiband data makes classification and classification, and the warning index of cardiocerebrovasculaevents events is induced as geomagnetic storm, and the event is given warning in advance;The inventive method has the advantages that pre- morning of calling time, observation data are more, scientific basis is reasonable, pre-warning time is long, efficiency and accuracy are high.
Description
Technical field
Present invention relates to a kind of cardiocerebrovasculaevents events are induced using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning
Method, it is the method for early warning on cardiocerebrovasculaevents events caused by solar activity in the research of pace weather weather, especially suitable
The prevention of the great relevant disease triggered for pace weather weather.
Background technology
Violent solar burst and CME are the driving sources of pace weather weather(Coronal Mass Ejections, corona thing
Matter is cast), and directly affect the most important factor of mankind's near earth space environment particularly geomagnetic field variation.Study solar activity
Rule is simultaneously monitored and forecast to it, has become a key subjects of global common concern, while national economy is sent out
Exhibition, national security and human lives have important Practical significance.
Human magnetic field is to produce, maintain under this overall background of magnetic field of the earth.It there will necessarily be between this 2 magnetic fields
Interaction.Research shows that human body occurs to interact with electromagnetic field really, and cell membrane is the target of Electromagnetic Field on Cell effect
Point.Resting cell film potential is to maintain the base values of cell life vigor, it is ensured that intraor extracellular maintains normal physiological condition
Ion distribution.The film potential of living cells is about 70mV when quiet, and the film potential of canceration or dead cell will change.
Under DC Electric Field, cell membrane potential changes, and deviates resting membrane electric potential, causes the on off state of ion channel to change
Become, influence permselectivity of the cell membrane to ion, so as to cause corresponding ion that transmembrane movement occurs, cause intraor extracellular from
Sub- concentration changes and deviates normal ion distribution poised state, causes cell to produce and various are advantageous to or are unfavorable for it and deposit
The change of biochemistry and physiological status living.
The change of ground void relation -- solar activity -- space weather is to induce Geophysical background especially human peripheral's earth magnetism
-- the principal element of Ionospheric variability.Research solar activity rule simultaneously geomagnetic field variation is monitored and forecast, into
For a key subjects of global common concern.For now, biological geophysics is geophysics and biology
Justice is handed in forward position, and for holistic approach level, biological geophysical research is at present also in observation and the stage of data accumulation, reason
By, method, technology and Mechanism Study still lack very much.Around important scientific issues, also need to emphasize on Research Thinking multidisciplinary
Joint, strengthen laboratory simulation and the comprehensive study of numerical simulation.Also needed on technological layer research and develop new technology, new method and
New equipment, the ability and level of biological geophysics's research are improved energetically.
Notice the Space weather event of solar activity induction to people external scientific circles since the sixties in last century
The health of class may have potential impact, and it, which is represented, has Friedman et al. in, nineteen sixty-five and B.J. Lipa et al. in 1963
In 1976《Nature》Upper plurality of articles, by compare in Space weather event the typical earth magnetism Breakout events same day,
Then heart and brain obstruct, accept situation of change of the number relative to the earth magnetism pediocratic mental disorder hospital day for medical treatment in several days, find that
The per day rate of accepting for medical treatment of above-mentioned disease has obvious rising compared to the earth magnetism pediocratic during geomagnetic activity.
That waits cardiovascular event caused by starting the external change to space weather thenceforth has carried out years of researches:
In terms of finding that affected health index is mainly reflected in cardiovascular event.
E. Stoupel.J. et al. in 1995-1997 have studied solar proton number flow, 2800MHz wave bands flow with
Relation between heart infarction, cerebral apoplexy, draw the positive correlation highest of 2800MHz solar radio radiations changes in flow rate and angiocardiopathy
(0.56, P<0.001) ;S. Dimitrova et al. with 2009 by monitor 86 healthy volunteers on the day of geomagnetic activity
And the blood pressure in front and rear three days, it was therefore concluded that:Extremely strong geomagnetic activity the previous day human body diastolic pressure and systolic pressure have substantially
Change, bring hidden danger for angiocardiopathy;Ch. Katsavriasp in 2010 et al. have found:The urgency that ST and NST sections are raised
Property coronary syndrome the moon incidence of disease with CME and solar flare(flare)There is very strong positive correlation to reach as high as(0.84, p
<0.001).
Other research also confirm that, when solar activity cause earth magnetism significant change when, human normal biological rhythm i.e. by
Influence, body will produce stress reaction to adapt to new environment.Meanwhile cardiovascular index of correlation will change, such as blood
Pressure raises, increased heart rate, and arrhythmia cordis, the incidence of disease of heart failure increase etc., and the hypothesis is confirmed by external zoopery.
Also there are a small amount of related science achievement in research, nineteen ninety-five Zeng Zhiquan et al. in the country by comparing solar activity many indexes
Parameter, including 2800MHz solar activity flows, solar flare number, are closed between relative sunspot number and coronary heart disease, cerebral apoplexy
System, wherein 2800MHz solar radio radiations changes in flow rate and the positive correlation highest of two kinds of disease incidences(The degree of correlation reaches 0.618
With 0.591).
The irradiation experiment that Juraj Gmitrov et al. carried out dynamic and static two kinds of electromagnetic fields to rabbit in 2007, wherein dynamic
Geomagnetic storm environment has been imitated in the alternating magnetic field experiment of state completely, and their experimental result is confirmed under geomagnetic storm environment, experimental rabbit
Microcirculation and the phenomenon that reduces of arterial pressure reflex sensitivity, this is the main omen table that cardiovascular event occurs
It is existing.For this some have speculated that:The change in earth's magnetic field drives the change of organism interior magnetic field, have impact on animal body in-laws' hydrophobic grouping
Interaction, change the degree of ionization of metal ion, make free OH-And H2O2Ratio change, make neuroendocrine system by
Influence, blood pressure heart rate changes, and the viscosity and coagulability of blood are affected, and causes a series of diseases including angiocardiopathy
Occur, development.
Sun aggravating activities and CME (Coronal Mass Ejection, CME) phenomenon are to cause earth magnetism
Change direct factor, study the relation of this factor and health, especially study its influence to cardiovascular disease incidence:
Clinical symptoms and lapse to, provide foundation with diagnoses and treatment for health forecast, have become a great class of global common concern
The national economic development, national security and human lives are had important Practical significance by topic.
The Forbush Decrease of ultra rays(Cosmic ray Forbush Decrease, abbreviation FD)Phenomenal space weather thing
A kind of typical event in part, it be due in solar activity huge solar flare by CME into nearly solar-terrestrial physics, it is right
Ultra rays generate the universe linear flow rate for blocking and observing and declined, and can know solar-terrestrial physics by the change for monitoring ultra rays
Plasma variable density, and then speculate geomagnetic activity time of origin.
For this, Dorman, L.I et al. obtains earth magnetism by observing the variation relation between FD phenomenon and cardiovascular event
Field change moment and heart infarction, Cerebral Haemorrhage Invasion Rate rise time sequencing:Generally FD phenomenons betide heart and brain stalk thing
Before part in 15-20 hours, this just provides theoretical foundation for such event using the early warning of FD phenomenons.
But the time that arriving between geomagnetic storm generation occur in FD phenomenons is shorter, by speculating that geomagnetic activity changes based on monitoring FD
About 15-20 hour, for the angle that time period is prevented from cardiovascular event, do not possess practical value.Solar activity it
Preceding and early stage is constantly present certain observational characteristic, and the big solar flare in day face being included in optical observation occurs, 2800MHz radio streams
There is abnormal frequency spectrum etc. in the enhancing of amount and X ray flow, low frequency solar radio radiation, and the development by last decade has built up in the world
Complete observation system, and these data are all domestic can obtain in time at present, how to analyze these difference observation numbers
According to the relation between occurrence of cardiovascular event, clinically seek influence factor from occurrence of cardiovascular event mechanism, this
Upper correlative study is also in blank stage both at home and abroad.
Early warning is carried out by generation of the technological means during solar burst to geomagnetic activity to human body cardiovascular event
Forecast with health, study intervention means on this basis, will be geophysical research to this cardiovascular mankind's major disease
Prevent and control significant.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide one kind cardiovascular and cerebrovascular is induced using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning
The method of event, this method are that for solar activity period the cardiocerebrovasculaevents events of induction are carried out with a kind of effective hand of early warning
Section, it is intended to using significant redundant observation data in solar activity, to will caused by terrestrial magnetic disturbance progress time supposition, and then
Effective early warning is made to the cardiocerebrovasculaevents events that may occur to judge.
Carried out for this potential health determinants of geomagnetic storm induction human body cardiocerebrovasculaevents events in Space weather event
Targetedly data analysis, early-warning and predicting, multiband observation data have different in Space weather event caused by solar burst
Often performance, it reacts rises, on 2800MHz frequency ranges and low frequency solar radio radiation flow for the appearance of big optical activities area, X-ray flows
Rise, solar-terrestrial physics parameter(Plasma density, solar wind wind speed rise, south orientation north changes of magnetic field)And ultra rays flow parameter
Change, pre-warning time and accuracy etc. can be improved using above-mentioned redundant observation data, while effective normalized number evidence helps
In the development of space weather related service.
The present invention carries out Conjoint Analysis, wherein multiband observation packet to multiband observation data in Space weather event
Include optical observation data, radio observation data, high-energy ray detection data, solar-terrestrial physics ambient parameter and ultra rays flow number
According to;According to the time that observation data occur and the probability that earth's magnetic field may be influenceed, the pre- alarm probability of multiband observation data is done
Go out classification and classification, and the warning index of cardiocerebrovasculaevents events is induced as geomagnetic storm, the event is given warning in advance.
According to space weather research conclusion, according to the time of different observation data appearance and the general of earth's magnetic field may be influenceed
The pre- alarm probability of above-mentioned redundant observation data is made classification and classification by rate, and probability is as follows with early warning graded index from low to high:
Optical activities area occurs and the rising of 2800MHz frequency range solar radio radiations flow is used as Early warning indicator, low frequency solar radio radiation flow
Rise and be used as Medium Early Warning index, solar-terrestrial physics parameter, including:Plasma density, solar wind wind speed rise, south orientation north magnetic field
Change is turned to middle and later periods warning index, and universe linear flow rate, which declines, is used as later stage or urgent warning index, and last geomagnetic storm index is made
It is not counted in for checking index in scheme.
Described induce cardiocerebrovasculaevents events to geomagnetic storm and give warning in advance is to give cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease potentially to suffer from
The sufficient pharmaceutical intervention of person and treatment help to reduce negative effect of the terrestrial magnetic disturbance to the mankind caused by solar activity.
The present invention research approach be:Classification to multiple sun observation data:
1st, optical activities area+2800MHz solar radio radiation flow monitorings
The big behaviour area in day face is directly determined by optical observation, black mole number, makes early prediction(See Fig. 1), pass through the image
The solar activity phenomenon such as solar flare, flocculus and filaments of sun can be observed;
The centimetre wavelength of the sun 10.7(2800-2840MHz, depending on radio environment)Radio radiation flux be characterize the sun live
A dynamic horizontal Important Parameters, referred to as sun F107 indexes(Fig. 2).
Because the cycle of sunspot has from several days to the mechanical periodicity in century, and its area and quantity are also with identical
Mechanical periodicity, in the centimetre wavelength of the solar radio radiation sun 10.7(2800MHz)Change with black mole has very high correlation, foot
With the change of with reflecting sun long term activity of earthquake and day effect.Therefore, radio radiation flux of the sun on 2800MHz is to characterize too
One important parameter of positive activity level, it is referred to as sun F107 indexes, unit SFU in research fields such as space, astronomy(Too
Positive flux unit, Solar Flux Unit), 1SFU=10-22w Hz-1m-2), its general range is between 60 to 300.
F107 indexes and sunspot number have good corresponding relation;In the solar activity peak year, sun F107 indexes are usual
Up to 300 can be also possible in shorter time range more than 200;Therefore, the total of F107 indexes division solar activity is commonly used
Body is horizontal;Generally, average time of the F107 indexes higher than 180 is referred to as the typical solar activity peak year, and average F107 refers to
Time of the number less than 90 is referred to as typical solar activity paddy year.
The low frequency such as the 2nd, metric wave --- decameter wave solar radio radiation is observed
The detectable distance of this method is far longer than other detection modes, at the same the astronomical monitoring Space weather event of low frequency radio not by
Blow, rain, the natural environment influence such as day the moon, there is the incomparable advantages of other monitoring means such as optics, and there is whole day
The characteristics of waiting monitoring;
Observation data of the solar activity on low-frequency wireless electricity reflect solar activity plasma ejection thing CME in solar-terrestrial physics
Important physical characteristic in communication process.As CME materials are remote between CME plasmas tranmitting frequency and plasma density
From the sun, its radio frequency emitted is also decreasing, and unanimously thinks ground solar radio radiation for this Solar Physics circle
The radio outburst frequency that telescope can observe is lower, and CME materials are nearer from us.At present because earth ionosphere hinders
Gear, ground radio telescope can only observe radio astronomy signal more than 15MHz frequencies, about two to three solar radiuses height
Degree;As shown in Figure 3.
According to electromagnetic wave and the length velocity relation of plasma in free space, electromagnetic wave be according to light velocity propagation, and
Plasma is propagated according to the speed for being significantly smaller than the light velocity(About 300km/h-1000km/h), then we always first detect
The unusual fluctuation of low-frequency electromagnetic wave, the later plasma species of two to three days get to the earth and cause the earth magnetism of the earth to break out.
Solar meter wave --- after decametric range breaks out, according to plasma motion speed, it is quick-fried that geomagnetic storm can betide this
After hair in 2-3 days(Fig. 4).
3rd, solar-terrestrial physics situation is speculated according to solar wind relevant parameter
Plasma species can cause a series of change of solar wind relevant parameter after entering solar-terrestrial physics, through ACE
(Advance Composition Explorer) satellite is observed, it is known that solar wind current state.
In Space weather event, due in different CME physical property be not quite similar, its cause solar wind parameter become
Change is also not quite similar, and solar wind dynamic pressure D is introduced under study for action for this(solar wind dynamic pressure)(Figure
5):
(1)
Wherein, N is plasma density(1/cm³);V is solar wind velocity(㎞/s).
4th, the observation of ultra rays Forbush Decrease
According to astrophysics research show Forbush Decrease be due in solar activity huge solar flare by CME substance slingings with arriving day
Ultra rays block in space and caused by flow decline, day can be known by the Forbush Decrease for observing ultra rays
Ground space plasma variable density, as shown in Figure 6;
Geomagnetic storm is found to from it and occurs the pre-warning time for being no more than 20 hours be present, and the phenomenon can break out tight as earth magnetism
Anxious pre-warning signal.
From which kind of above-mentioned observation data, different observation is in the cardiocerebrovasculaevents events that early warning, forecast earth magnetism outburst induce
Pre-warning time, probability are different, are summarized in table 1:
Table 1 it is various observation data pre-warning time and its early warning likelihood ratio compared with
。
The present invention effect be:
1st, according to it is early, in, in-multistage observation data definition warning index, the data such as rear, later stage are reliable;
2nd, wherein the warning information of early stage can shift to an earlier date more than 4 days, early warning earth magnetism outburst induce cardiocerebrovasculaevents events, have compared with
Long pre-warning time;
3rd, wherein in-rear, later stage warning index has higher accuracy.
The features such as present invention has to call time morning in advance, and observation data are more, and scientific basis is reasonable.
1st, the day face optical observation data and 2800MHz solar radio radiation flow values used, it is that solar activity early stage is most heavy
Will with intuitively characterize;
2nd, the sun low frequency radio outburst data then used, it is to characterize the important early stage of coronal mass ejection phenomenon always;
According to the spread speed of different material, electric signal always reaches prior to corona projectile, and then burst phenomenon is always first
Phenomenon is broken out in earth magnetism;
3rd, in subsequent solar-terrestrial physics receives CME influence, it can infer that CME inherence is strong by space physics parameter
The information such as degree, speed, and then deduce the parameters such as the time for the geomagnetic storm event that may occur, grade;
4th, it is that Fu Buxi phenomenons are the important instructions that CME approaches the earth in subsequent ultra rays changes in flow rate, as urgent early warning
Index;
5th, the prevention that cardiocerebrovasculaevents events can be carried out within the time difference of above-mentioned observation data prepares.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a day face H α images;
Fig. 2 is the long-term changes in flow rate of solar radio radiation 2800MHz;
Fig. 3 is that different Microwave Bursts frequencies correspond to different plasma ejection height;
Fig. 4 is the different detectable CME of microwave frequency moving height schematic diagram;
Fig. 5 is the solar wind parameter of ACE satellites:Density(p/cm3), wind speed(km/s), temperature(K);
Fig. 6 is the relation of solar burst projectile and Forbush Decrease.
Embodiment
Embodiment 1:This induces the method for cardiocerebrovasculaevents events, pin using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning
There is Novel presentation to multiband observation data in Space weather event caused by solar burst, to multiband in Space weather event
Observe data and carry out Conjoint Analysis, wherein multiband observation data include optical observation data, radio observation data, high-energy ray
Detection data, solar-terrestrial physics ambient parameter and ultra rays data on flows;The time occurred according to observation data and possible influence
The probability in earth's magnetic field, the pre- alarm probability for observing multiband data makes classification and classification, and induces heart and brain blood as geomagnetic storm
Run affairs the warning index of part, the event is given warning in advance.
First, sun optical observation data and 2800MHz solar radio radiations flow value can be empty from State Satellite Meterological Center
Between weather forecast website(http://www.nsmc.org.cn/NSMC/Home/Index.html)Obtain;Go out in discovery day face
Behind existing larger optical activities area, you can send early warning signal, but the geomagnetic storm probability that may occur is not high;
Secondly, after the big solar flare of optics and 2800MHz solar radio radiation flow value exceptions is found, penetrated by the Japanese wild side mountain sun
The observation data of electric frequency spectrograph(http://sunbase.nict.go.jp/solar/denpa/realtime_ymg.html)Obtain
Low frequency solar radio radiation spectrum information is taken, in the event of low frequency solar radio burst, then can send Medium Early Warning signal;
Then, it is therein by U.S.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather forecast website after low frequency solar radio burst
Solar wind parameter homepage(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind)Obtain
The relevant physical parameter information in daily solar wind is taken, including:Plasma density, solar wind wind speed rise, south orientation north magnetic field
Situations such as, solar wind dynamic is calculated by plasma density, solar wind wind speed and pressed:D, while the magnetic field oscillation of south orientation north is shaken
Width can also increased at the same time, can now send middle and later periods pre-warning signal, represent that CME materials come into solar-terrestrial physics,
And produce corresponding disturbance;
Then, the Cosmic Ray Air Shower website in country of Chinese Academy of Sciences space science research center is passed through(http://
www.sepc.ac.cn/cosmicRays_chn.php)Current ultra rays flow information is obtained, can when finding that flow declines
To infer that current CME materials already close to the earth, send later stage/urgent warning information, now only had away from geomagnetic storm small less than 20
When;
Finally, Data web site is observed by the earth's magnetic field in country of Chinese Academy of Sciences space science research center(http://
www.sepc.ac.cn/dstModel_chn.php)Earth's magnetic field Dst index informations are obtained, and pass through http://
Www.sepc.ac.cn/Kp3HPred_chn.php obtain earth's magnetic field Kp index informations, as when checking information.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of method that cardiocerebrovasculaevents events are induced using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning, its feature are existed
In:Conjoint Analysis is carried out to multiband observation data in Space weather event, wherein multiband observation data include optical observation
Data, radio observation data, high-energy ray detection data, solar-terrestrial physics ambient parameter and ultra rays data on flows;According to sight
The time that survey data occur and the probability that may influence earth's magnetic field, the pre- alarm probability for observing multiband data are made classification and divided
Level, and as the warning index of geomagnetic storm induction cardiocerebrovasculaevents events, the event is given warning in advance.
2. according to claim 1 induce cardiocerebrovasculaevents events using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning
Method, it is characterised in that early warning graded index is as follows:Optical activities area occurs and 2800MHz frequency range solar radio radiations flow rises
As Early warning indicator;Low frequency solar radio radiation flow, which rises, is used as Medium Early Warning index;Solar-terrestrial physics parameter, including plasma
Volume density, solar wind wind speed rise, south orientation north changes of magnetic field is as middle and later periods warning index;Universe linear flow rate, which declines, is used as the later stage
Or urgent warning index.
3. according to claim 1 induce cardiocerebrovasculaevents events using the geomagnetic storm of spatial multiplex synoptic weather observation data early warning
Method, it is characterised in that:Described induce cardiocerebrovasculaevents events to geomagnetic storm and give warning in advance is to give cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease
The potential sufficient pharmaceutical intervention of patient and treatment help to reduce terrestrial magnetic disturbance caused by solar activity to the negative shadow of the mankind
Ring.
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CN111752966A (en) * | 2020-06-09 | 2020-10-09 | 中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学 | System and method for analyzing disturbance of earth change magnetic field |
WO2021060544A1 (en) * | 2019-09-25 | 2021-04-01 | 西村 勉 | Information provision device, information provision method, and program |
CN115951430A (en) * | 2023-03-15 | 2023-04-11 | 数字太空(北京)智能技术研究院有限公司 | Geomagnetic index forecasting method based on LSTM |
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WO2021060544A1 (en) * | 2019-09-25 | 2021-04-01 | 西村 勉 | Information provision device, information provision method, and program |
CN111752966A (en) * | 2020-06-09 | 2020-10-09 | 中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学 | System and method for analyzing disturbance of earth change magnetic field |
CN111752966B (en) * | 2020-06-09 | 2023-11-24 | 中国人民解放军火箭军工程大学 | Earth change magnetic field disturbance analysis system and method |
CN115951430A (en) * | 2023-03-15 | 2023-04-11 | 数字太空(北京)智能技术研究院有限公司 | Geomagnetic index forecasting method based on LSTM |
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