CN107341732A - Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics - Google Patents
Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics Download PDFInfo
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- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 21
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 4
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 14
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 4
- 241001672694 Citrus reticulata Species 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 description 2
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- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 206010010219 Compulsions Diseases 0.000 description 1
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- 230000004888 barrier function Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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- 230000001186 cumulative effect Effects 0.000 description 1
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- 238000011144 upstream manufacturing Methods 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that comprises the following steps：Step 1, the essential information of the flood storage and detention basin of reservoir sum in basin is collected；Step 2, the system dynamics model in basin is established according to the essential information being collected into；Step 3, the alternative of multiple risk fund operations is proposed, each alternative is substituted into respectively dry run is carried out in system dynamics model, obtain fund operation result；Step 4, index system is established, the fund operation result of individual scheme is evaluated；Step 5, based on evaluation situation, the preferred fund program from alternative.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to control flood and Financial Management crossing domain, and in particular to a kind of flood storage and detention basin based on system dynamics
Risk fund construction method.
Technical background
China some areas flood damage is more frequent and severe.Reservoir can actively control flood and avoid the peak hour, and flood storage and detention basin is made
For the important component of flood control system, it is to ensure emphasis flood control safety, mitigates the effective measures of disaster.At present, China is anti-
Big vast measure is more based on reservoir, and the storage capacity of flood storage and detention basin is not utilized effectively in most cases, and this is caused
Flood control resource idle and waste.Under normal circumstances, the economic development in flood storage and detention basin is restricted, and part flood storage and detention basin
Excessively exploitation again, enters flood fall facility wretched insufficiency, when big flood occurs, not only can not defaulted flood in time, can cause on the contrary more
Big loss.Flood storage and detention basin, it has also become the weak link in flood control system, govern the sustainable development of River valley economy.
Soil, house of local resident etc. may be flooded after the flood diversion in flood storage and detention basin, certain economy is brought to locality
Loss, but ensure the flood control safety of key area, avoid bigger economic loss.Therefore, the operational management of flood storage and detention basin is extremely
Close important, not only want in good time flood diversion, also to carry out calamity post-compensation in time, recover the flood diversion ability of flood storage and detention basin, compensate local occupy
The people lose.Existing compensatory approach is provided funds by country to carry out calamity post-compensation to flood storage and detention basin, causes state revenue and expenditure burden weight,
And it is also easy to produce the dispute in place.In consideration of it, starting to advocate flood insurance in recent years, resident is insured, by insurance company after big flood generation
To carry out calamity post-compensation.But flood insurance belongs to catastrophe insurance, insurance company typically can not independently undertake flood disaster risk, and
The rate of joining insurance of resident is difficult to ensure that, insurance company may be caused can not to accumulate enough original funds.
Based on case above there is an urgent need to propose a kind of fund construction method of scientific system, reservoir effect can be considered
The flood diversion loss of benefit and flood storage and detention basin, so as to ensure the sustainable development of River valley economy.
The content of the invention
The present invention is, and it is an object of the present invention to provide a kind of storage based on system dynamics is stagnant in order to solving the above problems and carry out
Big vast area's risk fund construction method.
The present invention to achieve these goals, employs following scheme：
The present invention provides a kind of flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that bag
Include following steps：Step 1, the essential information of the flood storage and detention basin of reservoir sum in basin is collected；Step 2, it is basic according to what is be collected into
Information establishes the system dynamics model in basin；Step 3, the alternative of multiple risk fund operations is proposed, will be each alternative
Scheme substitutes into respectively carries out dry run in system dynamics model, obtain fund operation result；Step 4, index system is established,
The fund operation result of individual scheme is evaluated；Step 5, based on evaluation situation, the preferred fund program from alternative.
Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method provided by the invention based on system dynamics, there can also be following spy
Sign：In step 1, the essential information of reservoir comprises at least：The situation that becomes a mandarin, service data, scheduling rule and the water conservancy work(of reservoir
Can target；The essential information of flood storage and detention basin comprises at least：The population of flood storage and detention basin, socio-economic conditions, divide enabling for flood storage
Condition and history service condition.
Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method provided by the invention based on system dynamics, there can also be following spy
Sign：In step 2, it is using sustainable development as final goal, establishes and be based on reservoir, flood storage and detention basin, fund three
System kinetic model.
Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method provided by the invention based on system dynamics, there can also be following spy
Sign：The system dynamics model established in step 2 is included with lower module：
(1) reservoir module
In formula：V is capacity reservoir (m3), t is the time (s), Qin、Qd、Qout、Qp、QsRespectively reservoir inflow, water transfer stream
Amount, storage outflow, generating flow, abandon water-carrying capacity (m3/s)。
(2) flood storage and detention basin module
(2.1) flood diversion amount：
(2.2) size of population：
In formula：F is the flood diversion amount (m of flood storage and detention basin3), Q' is safe traffic (m3/ s), work as QoutDuring ＞ Q', then cause to flood
Not yet, k is the flood discharge coefficient after a flood diversion；N is population (people) in flood storage and detention basin, and r (R) is population growth rate, is risk
Realize R function, NmFor the open ended maximum population's quantity (people) of environmental condition, N0For flood storage and detention basin original demographic's quantity
(people).
(3) fund module
In formula：C is the accumulated value (member) of fund, and for μ for reservoir benefit to compensate the ratio of flood storage and detention basin loss, α is single
The benefit (member/kwh) of position generated energy, E are total generated energy (kwh), and β is the benefit (member/m of unit water diversion3), D is reservoir
Adjustable water (m3), CgFlood that government puts into every year compensation (member), γ are the participating insurance ratio of flood storage and detention basin resident, f
(R) it is insurance premium rate (%), is sense of risk R function, ξ is that (member/m is lost in unit flood diversion3), η is to flood storage and detention basin Zhong Ju
The unit reparation (member/people) of the people.
Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method provided by the invention based on system dynamics, there can also be following spy
Sign：Alternative includes：(1) fund is only provided funds by country；(2) fund is only provided funds by flood storage and detention basin, the money that flood storage and detention basin provides
The premium that resident of the gold from flood storage and detention basin pays；(3) fund is only provided funds by reservoir, by certain in the benefit obtained from reservoir
Ratio is used to estabish a pool；(4) fund is by reservoir and the common seriousness provided funds, consider flood damage of country, when the fortune of fund
Row is absorbed in difficulty, when reservoir helps limited in one's ability, is provided loans subsidy by country, the reservoir later stage is refunded in state in the form of installment reimbursement
Family；(5) fund is provided funds jointly by reservoir with flood storage and detention basin；(6) fund is by flood storage and detention basin and the common investment of country；(7) fund by
Reservoir, country and flood storage and detention basin three provide funds jointly.
The effect of invention and effect
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are：
(1) present invention proposes a kind of flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method, and flood storage and detention is ensured by the foundation of fund
The normal operation in area, promote the sustainable development in basin；
(2) operation of fund is simulated using system dynamics method, is capable of the possibility of more flexible simulation difference fund
As a result, it is the biology barrier that offer science the is provided support of risk fund.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow of the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics in the embodiment of the present invention
Figure.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing to the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method of the present invention based on system dynamics
Specific embodiment is described in detail.
<Embodiment>
As shown in figure 1, the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method bag based on system dynamics that the present embodiment is provided
Include following steps：
Step 1, the essential information of the flood storage and detention basin of reservoir sum is collected, including：The situation that becomes a mandarin of reservoir, service data, tune
Metric is then and water conservancy functional objective etc.；Population, socio-economic conditions with flood storage and detention basin, the conditions for use of flood storage and history is divided to make
With situation etc..Step 1 is conventional steps in the art.
Step 2, the system dynamics model in basin is established according to the essential information being collected into.Specifically holding with basin
It is continuous to develop into final goal, establish based on reservoir, flood storage and detention basin, fund three system dynamics model：
(1) reservoir capacity (V) calculates
In formula：V is capacity reservoir (m3), t is the time (s), Qin、Qd、Qout、Qp、QsRespectively reservoir inflow, diversion stream
Amount, storage outflow, generating flow, abandon water-carrying capacity (m3/s)；
(2) flood storage and detention basin flood diversion amount (F) calculates
In formula：F is the flood diversion amount (m of flood storage and detention basin3), Q' is safe traffic (m3/ s), work as QoutDuring ＞ Q', then cause to flood
Not yet, k is the flood discharge coefficient after a flood diversion；
(3) sense of risk (R) calculates
ε(Ft)=n (Ft-Fc) (4)
In formula：R is the sense of risk of resident；ε is the cumulative of sense of risk or the speed reduced, and n is conversion factor, FtFor
Flood diversion total amount (the m of flood storage and detention basin in 1 year3), FcTo trigger the flood diversion amount (m of sense of risk3)；
(4) population (N) calculates in flood storage and detention basin
R (R)=r0+loga(R), 0 ＜ a ＜ 1 (6)
In formula：N is population (people) in flood storage and detention basin, and r (R) is population growth rate (%), is sense of risk R letter
Number, NmFor the open ended maximum population's quantity (people) of environmental condition, N0For flood storage and detention basin original demographic's quantity (people)；r0It is stagnant to store
The base growth rate (%) of big vast area's population；
(5) foundation of fund
F (R)=f0+logb(R), b ＞ 1 (8)
In formula：C is the accumulated value (member) of fund, and for μ for reservoir benefit to compensate the ratio of flood storage and detention basin loss, α is single
The benefit (member/kwh) of position generated energy, E are total generated energy (kwh), and β is the benefit (member/m of unit water diversion3), D is upstream
Adjustable water (the m of reservoir3), CgThe flood compensation (member) that government puts into every year, γ are the participating insurance ratio of flood storage and detention basin resident
Example, f (R) is insurance premium rate (%), is sense of risk R function, and ξ is that (member/m is lost in unit flood diversion3), η is to flood storage and detention basin
The unit reparation (member/people) of middle resident；f0For basic premium rate (%)；
(6) generated energy (E) calculates
E=∑s (K × Qp×H×Δt) (9)
In formula：K is power factor, QpFor water diversion flow (m3/ s), H is head (m), and Δ t is calculation interval (s)；
(7) adjustable water (D) calculates
D=∑s (Qd×Δt) (10)
In formula：QdFor volume of water diversion (m3/s)。
Step 3, multiple risk fund operation alternatives are proposed, each alternative is substituted into system dynamics mould respectively
Dry run is carried out in type, obtains fund operation result.The funds source of fund mainly includes the part benefit and storage of reservoir
The premium that resident pays in detention basin, it may also include the in good time subsidy of country.Seven kinds of alternatives are shared, including：(1) fund is only
By help from government, simulation《Flood storage and detention basin is with compensation Tentative Measures》Operation；(2) fund is only helped by flood storage and detention basin, is passed through
The resident for advocating flood storage and detention basin participates in flood insurance to simulate the operation of flood insurance；(3) fund is only helped by reservoir, from reservoir
It is used to estabish a pool by a certain percentage in the benefit of acquisition, maintains the operation of fund；(4) fund is helped jointly by reservoir and country
Hold, consider the seriousness of flood damage, when the operation of fund is absorbed in difficulty, and reservoir helps limited in one's ability, provided loans benefit by country
Help, the reservoir later stage is refunded in country in the form of installment reimbursement；(5) fund is helped jointly by reservoir with flood storage and detention basin, the two with
River valley economy develops into common objective, mutually coordinated development, the stable operation of guarantee fund；(6) fund is by flood storage and detention basin and state
Family is common to be helped, and state compulsion requires that the resident of flood storage and detention basin participates in flood insurance, and initial capital is accumulated for fund, then in fund
Operating is subsidized when going wrong；(7) fund is helped jointly by reservoir, country and flood storage and detention basin three, fund funds source
The premium that mainly benefit of reservoir and flood storage and detention basin resident are paid, country are in the status of macro adjustments and controls, and suitably subsidize.
Reservoir benefit is to compensate the ratio of flood storage and detention basin loss, flood storage and detention basin resident participates in the ratio of flood insurance, state
The flood compensation input of family is variable, and 7 kinds of schemes of the above can be obtained by different set of variable.
Step 4, index system is established, the operation result of fund is evaluated.By establishing index system, to step
The operation result of each scheme is evaluated in 3, can be with the stable operation time limit, the size of flood storage and detention basin insurance premium rate, state's family property
It is index to help year etc., and multi-faceted investigation is carried out to operability, economy, reasonability of each scheme etc..
Step 5, based on evaluation situation, from alternative, preferred fund program.According to the index system of foundation, to each
Individual scheme is analyzed comprehensively, each index in comprehensive consideration index system, and it is all satisfied preferably to go out reservoir, flood storage and detention basin, fund
Scheme.
By the foundation of fund, the benefit of upper pond and downstream flood storage and detention basin, loss are integrated, obtain basin
Comprehensive benefit, using system dynamics method, calculate the stabilization of the stable operation time limit, i.e. basin of fund under different insurance premium rates
Develop the time limit.
Above example is only the illustration done to technical solution of the present invention.It is involved in the present invention based on system
Dynamic (dynamical) flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method is not merely defined in content described in the embodiment above, but
It is defined by claim limited range.Those skilled in the art of the invention are done any on the basis of the embodiment
Modification or supplement or equivalence replacement, all in the claimed scope of the claim of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
Step 1, the essential information of the flood storage and detention basin of reservoir sum in basin is collected；
Step 2, the system dynamics model in basin is established according to the essential information being collected into；
Step 3, the alternative of multiple risk fund operations is proposed, each alternative is substituted into the system respectively and moved
Dry run is carried out in mechanical model, obtains fund operation result；
Step 4, index system is established, the fund operation result of individual scheme is evaluated；
Step 5, based on evaluation situation, the preferred fund program from the alternative.
2. the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method according to claim 1 based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that：
Wherein, in the step 1, the essential information of the reservoir comprises at least：The situation that becomes a mandarin of reservoir, service data, tune
Metric is then and water conservancy functional objective；
The essential information of the flood storage and detention basin comprises at least：The population of flood storage and detention basin, socio-economic conditions, divide enabling for flood storage
Condition and history service condition.
3. the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method according to claim 1 based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that：
Wherein, in the step 2, it is using sustainable development as final goal, establishes with reservoir, flood storage and detention basin, fund three
For the system dynamics model of main body.
4. the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method according to claim 1 based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that：
Wherein, the system dynamics model established in the step 2 is included with lower module：
(1) reservoir module
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In formula：V is capacity reservoir, and t is the time, Qin、Qd、Qout、Qp、QsRespectively reservoir inflow, volume of water diversion, storage outflow,
Generating flow, abandon water-carrying capacity；
(2) flood storage and detention basin module
Flood diversion amount：
The size of population：
In formula：F is the flood diversion amount of flood storage and detention basin, and Q' is safe traffic, works as QoutDuring ＞ Q', then cause to flood, k is a flood diversion
Flood discharge coefficient afterwards, N are population in flood storage and detention basin, and r (R) is population growth rate, is sense of risk R function, NmFor ring
The open ended maximum population's quantity of border condition, N0For flood storage and detention basin original demographic's quantity；
(3) fund module
<mrow>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
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<mo>,</mo>
</mrow>
In formula：C is the accumulated value of fund, and for μ for reservoir benefit to compensate the ratio of flood storage and detention basin loss, α is unit generated energy
Benefit, E is total generated energy, and β is the benefit of unit water diversion, and D is the adjustable water of reservoir, CgThe flood that government puts into every year
Water compensates, and γ is the participating insurance ratio of flood storage and detention basin resident, and f (R) is insurance premium rate, is sense of risk R function, and ξ is single
Position flood diversion loss, η are that the unit of resident in flood storage and detention basin is compensated.
5. the flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method according to claim 1 based on system dynamics, it is characterised in that：
Wherein, the alternative includes：(1) fund is only provided funds by country；(2) fund is only provided funds by flood storage and detention basin, flood storage and detention
The premium that resident of the funds source that area provides in flood storage and detention basin pays；(3) fund is only provided funds by reservoir, the effect obtained from reservoir
It is used to estabish a pool by a certain percentage in benefit；(4) fund is provided jointly by reservoir with country, considers the seriousness of flood damage,
When the operation of fund is absorbed in difficulty, and reservoir helps limited in one's ability, provided loans subsidy by country, the reservoir later stage is with the shape of installment reimbursement
Formula is refunded in country；(5) fund is provided funds jointly by reservoir with flood storage and detention basin；(6) fund is by flood storage and detention basin and the common investment of country；
(7) fund is provided funds jointly by reservoir, country and flood storage and detention basin three.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710510686.2A CN107341732A (en) | 2017-06-28 | 2017-06-28 | Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710510686.2A CN107341732A (en) | 2017-06-28 | 2017-06-28 | Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN107341732A true CN107341732A (en) | 2017-11-10 |
Family
ID=60217918
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| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710510686.2A Pending CN107341732A (en) | 2017-06-28 | 2017-06-28 | Flood storage and detention basin risk fund construction method based on system dynamics |
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| CN (1) | CN107341732A (en) |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110599003A (en) * | 2019-08-22 | 2019-12-20 | 武汉大学 | Flood storage and detention distinguishing flood distribution method based on complete information dynamic non-cooperative master-slave game |
| CN113792975A (en) * | 2021-08-13 | 2021-12-14 | 长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司 | Flood control and disaster reduction benefit evaluation method for water engineering combined dispatching |
-
2017
- 2017-06-28 CN CN201710510686.2A patent/CN107341732A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110599003A (en) * | 2019-08-22 | 2019-12-20 | 武汉大学 | Flood storage and detention distinguishing flood distribution method based on complete information dynamic non-cooperative master-slave game |
| CN110599003B (en) * | 2019-08-22 | 2022-03-04 | 武汉大学 | Flood storage and detention distinguishing flood distribution method based on complete information dynamic non-cooperative master-slave game |
| CN113792975A (en) * | 2021-08-13 | 2021-12-14 | 长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司 | Flood control and disaster reduction benefit evaluation method for water engineering combined dispatching |
| CN113792975B (en) * | 2021-08-13 | 2023-09-12 | 长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司 | Water engineering joint scheduling flood control and disaster reduction benefit evaluation method |
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