CN107305649B - Pre-drilling and post-drilling analysis method for key geological risk factors of drilling target - Google Patents
Pre-drilling and post-drilling analysis method for key geological risk factors of drilling target Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for analyzing key geological risk factors of a drilling target before and after drilling, which comprises the steps of predicting the risk factors before drilling, determining the key risk factors before drilling, and counting the frequency of the key risk factors before drilling; obtaining the after-drilling loss factors, determining the after-drilling loss key factors, and counting the frequency of the after-drilling loss key factors; determining a consistency risk factor before drilling and after drilling according to the key risk factor before drilling and the key loss factor after drilling, and counting to obtain the frequency of the consistency risk factor; and obtaining a predicted pre-drilling coincidence rate and an actual post-drilling coincidence rate based on the pre-drilling key risk factor, the post-drilling disfavor key factor and the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor to evaluate the key geological risk factors. The method solves the problem that only the key geological risk factors of the drilling target can be qualitatively analyzed in the prior art, and is beneficial to improving the evaluation level and reducing the exploration risk.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas exploration, in particular to a pre-drilling and post-drilling analysis method for key geological risk factors of a drilling target.
Background
The drilling target is usually a basic geological unit for implementing a drilling task in an oil and gas pre-exploration process, and the post-drilling evaluation of key geological risk factors is specific to pre-drilling geological risk evaluation, namely comparing the pre-drilling geological risk evaluation with the predicted geological risk factors during pre-drilling decision-making according to target drilling results and oil and gas discovery and display conditions, finding out differences and changes, analyzing the causes of the differences, summarizing experience and training, further perfecting a geological risk analysis model and an exploration technology, and guiding the next geological risk analysis work.
The analysis of geological risks after target drilling in the prior art is basically a simple qualitative analysis. The method is characterized in that the loss factors causing the non-acquisition of industrial oil and gas flow are indicated according to the data after drilling, the proportion of the loss is counted, the quantitative comparative analysis of the pre-drilling prediction and the post-drilling result of key geological risk factors causing the target drilling non-acquisition of the industrial oil and gas flow is lacked, the target evaluation level is not improved, and the next exploration cannot be effectively guided so as to meet the production requirement.
In view of the above, a new method for processing and analyzing data before and after drilling is needed to solve the above problems.
Disclosure of Invention
One of the technical problems to be solved by the present invention is to provide a new method for processing and analyzing data before and after drilling.
In order to solve the technical problem, the embodiment of the application provides a method for analyzing key geological risk factors of a drilling target before and after drilling, which comprises the steps of predicting the risk factors before drilling, determining the key risk factors before drilling, and counting the frequency of the key risk factors before drilling; obtaining the after-drilling loss factors, determining the after-drilling loss key factors, and counting the frequency of the after-drilling loss key factors; determining a consistency risk factor before drilling and after drilling according to the key risk factor before drilling and the key loss factor after drilling, and counting to obtain the frequency of the consistency risk factor; and obtaining a predicted pre-drilling coincidence rate and an actual post-drilling coincidence rate based on the pre-drilling key risk factor, the post-drilling disfavor key factor and the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor to evaluate the key geological risk factors.
Preferably, the pre-drill risk factors and post-drill disfavor factors each include trapping, priming, pooling, and post-storage.
Preferably, in determining the pre-drill key risk factor, the method comprises: estimating the occurrence probability of each pre-drilling risk factor; and determining the factor with the minimum occurrence probability in the risk factors before drilling as the key risk factor before drilling.
Preferably, when determining the key factor of the post-drilling loss, the method comprises the following steps: reevaluating the loss factors after drilling; and determining the factors with the worst reservoir conditions or no reservoir conditions in the evaluated factors as the key factors of the loss after drilling.
Preferably, when the pre-drilling and post-drilling consistency risk factor is determined according to the pre-drilling key risk factor and the post-drilling loss key factor, the factor with the same pre-drilling key risk factor and the post-drilling loss key factor is determined as the consistency risk factor.
Preferably, the pre-drill predicted compliance rate is defined as the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor divided by the frequency of occurrence of the pre-drill key risk factor corresponding to that factor.
Preferably, the higher the value of the pre-drilling prediction conformity rate is, the higher the accuracy of prediction by using the consistency risk factor is; the lower the value of the pre-drilling prediction compliance rate, the lower the accuracy of the prediction using the consistency risk factor.
Preferably, the actual after-drilling compliance rate is defined as the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor divided by the frequency of occurrence of the key after-drilling loss factor corresponding to the factor.
Preferably, the higher the value of the post-drilling actual compliance rate, the higher the likelihood that the consistency risk factor can be identified; the lower the value of the post-drill actual compliance rate, the lower the likelihood that the consistency risk factor can be identified.
Preferably, before obtaining the predicted pre-drill coincidence rate and the actual post-drill coincidence rate, the method further comprises: and drawing a comparison graph by using the frequency of the occurrence of the key risk factors before drilling and the key loss factors after drilling to judge the effect of the prediction before drilling.
Compared with the prior art, one or more embodiments in the above scheme can have the following advantages or beneficial effects:
the pre-drilling predicted coincidence rate and the post-drilling actual coincidence rate are determined by analyzing and comparing the pre-drilling risk factors and the post-drilling disprofit factors, so that the quantitative analysis of the key geological risk factors of the reservoir formation is realized, and the problem that the qualitative analysis can only be carried out on the key geological risk factors of the drilling target in the prior art is solved. The method can indicate the real reason of the prediction error, thereby being more beneficial to enterprises to search problems in a targeted manner and put forward corresponding solutions, improving the evaluation level and reducing the exploration risk.
Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings are included to provide a further understanding of the technology or prior art of the present application and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification. The drawings expressing the embodiments of the present application are used for explaining the technical solutions of the present application, and should not be construed as limiting the technical solutions of the present application.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of a pre-drill and post-drill analysis method for drilling a key geological risk factor of a target in accordance with an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 2 is a comparison graph of risk factors before drilling and after drilling according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention will be provided with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, so that how to apply the technical means to solve the technical problems and achieve the corresponding technical effects can be fully understood and implemented. The embodiments and the features of the embodiments can be combined without conflict, and the technical solutions formed are all within the scope of the present invention.
According to the method, six geological elements of 'generation, storage, covering, circling, transportation and preservation' and the configuration relation thereof are simplified and summarized into four reservoir risk factors of circling, filling, storage and later-period preservation according to the oil and gas reservoir formation process, the key risk factors of the oil and gas reservoir formation are contrasted and analyzed, the occurrence frequency of the consistency risk factors is counted, and the pre-drilling predicted coincidence rate and the post-drilling actual coincidence rate are calculated. The above process is described in detail below with reference to fig. 1.
And S110, predicting the pre-drilling risk factors, determining the pre-drilling key risk factors, and counting the frequency of the pre-drilling key risk factors.
And step S120, obtaining the lost interest factors after drilling, determining key factors after drilling, and counting the frequency of the key factors after drilling.
And S130, determining a consistency risk factor before drilling and after drilling according to the key risk factor before drilling and the key loss factor after drilling, and counting the frequency of the consistency risk factor.
And S140, obtaining a predicted pre-drilling coincidence rate and an actual post-drilling coincidence rate based on the pre-drilling key risk factor, the post-drilling disfavor key factor and the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor, and evaluating the key geological risk factors.
Specifically, in step S110, according to the barrel effect principle, the four factors of trapping, filling, storing and post-storing are independent of each other and cannot be found in the target reservoir, and the probability distribution of the reservoir factors should be constructed in consideration of the geological correlation between layers. The occurrence probability of each accumulation factor is probability distribution of 0-1, wherein 0 represents that the accumulation factor is invalid or lost, and 1 represents that the accumulation factor is valid or successful. When the pre-drilling key risk factors are determined, the occurrence probability of each pre-drilling risk factor is estimated, and each pre-drilling key risk factor and the occurrence probability thereof are recorded respectively for a batch of targets to be deployed and drilled. And then determining the factor with the minimum occurrence probability in the risk factors before drilling as the key risk factor before drilling, wherein the factor with the minimum occurrence probability of the accumulation factor is the maximum risk factor.
In step S120, the target drilling profit loss factors are also divided into four factors of trap, fill, reservoir and post-save according to the consistent pre-drill and post-drill review principles.
And determining the key factors of the after-drilling loss according to the acquired after-drilling data. When the key factors of the post-drilling loss are determined, the post-drilling loss factors are firstly re-evaluated, and then the factors with the worst reservoir conditions or no reservoir conditions in the post-drilling loss factors obtained through evaluation are determined as the key factors of the post-drilling loss for the purpose of not obtaining the industrial oil-gas flow. Namely, the drilling proves that the accumulation factor is invalid, the accumulation factor is determined to be a key factor of the loss, and the key factor of the loss after drilling and the frequency of the occurrence of the loss are respectively recorded for each target.
In step S130, the predicted critical risk factors before drilling are compared with the actual results after drilling, and four factors of trapping, filling, storing and post-storage before and after drilling are compared respectively. And when the pre-drilling prediction result is consistent with the post-drilling actual result, determining the factors with the same pre-drilling key risk factor and the post-drilling loss key factor as consistency risk factors, and respectively counting the frequency of the pre-drilling consistency risk factor and the post-drilling consistency risk factor of each factor.
In step S140, a pre-drilling predicted coincidence rate and a post-drilling actual coincidence rate are calculated based on the obtained data, respectively.
Dividing the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor by the frequency of occurrence of the key risk factor before drilling corresponding to the consistency risk factor to obtain the predicted coincidence rate T before drilling, wherein the predicted coincidence rate T before drilling is shown in an expression (1):
the pre-drill predicted compliance rate indicates a rate of correct identification of risk critical factors before drilling, and a higher value of the pre-drill predicted compliance rate indicates a higher accuracy of the prediction of the consistency risk factor. Similarly, subtracting the pre-drill predicted compliance rate from "1" can indicate the error rate of the pre-drill prediction for the risk factor, with higher values indicating higher error rates of the pre-drill prediction for the risk factor.
Dividing the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factor by the frequency of occurrence of the key factor of the drill-back loss corresponding to the consistency risk factor to obtain the actual coincidence rate T' after drilling, as shown in an expression (2):
the post-drill actual compliance rate indicates a pre-drill recognition rate of the risk key, and a higher value of the compliance rate indicates a higher likelihood that the consistency risk factor can be identified. Similarly, the higher the value obtained by subtracting the actual after-drilling match rate from "1", the less readily the consistency risk factor is recognized and identified.
In addition, before the pre-drilling prediction coincidence rate and the post-drilling actual coincidence rate are calculated according to the expressions (1) and (2), a comparison graph can be drawn by using the frequency of occurrence of the pre-drilling key risk factor and the post-drilling loss key factor to judge the effect of the pre-drilling prediction.
In the comparison graph, the horizontal axis represents the frequency of occurrence of the key risk factors before drilling, the vertical axis represents the frequency of occurrence of the key loss factors after drilling, and the frequency on the diagonal line of 45 degrees represents the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factors. The more concentrated the frequency distribution of the diagonal line, the better the prediction effect. The frequency of occurrence in the other lateral directions indicates that a risk factor is not recognized and is incorrectly predicted, i.e., not recognized, by other risk factors. The occurrence frequency in the other longitudinal directions indicates that a certain risk factor is predicted as a wrong risk factor and actually is another risk factor, i.e. is recognized as wrong.
The embodiment of the invention provides a pre-drilling and post-drilling numerical analysis method, which can generate more scientific, reliable and practical pre-drilling and post-drilling evaluation of key geological risks of a drilling target, is beneficial to reducing exploration risks and improving the drilling success rate, and lays a foundation for target evaluation and improvement of a pre-exploration well deployment level of an oil company.
The application of the method is specifically described below by an example, and the method of the embodiment of the invention is applied to the evaluation after drilling of 27 targets after the oil company deploys the drill in 2013-2014.
A pre-drill key risk factor is determined according to step S110. According to geological risk analysis before drilling, the occurrence probabilities of the trapping condition, the filling condition, the storage condition and the later-period storage condition of the 27 targets are respectively predicted, and the prediction results are shown in table 1. As can be seen from table 1, the smallest occurrence probability of the accumulation factor is the key risk factor, and then the frequencies of the predicted occurrences of the trap, fill, reservoir and late-stage storage as the key risk factors are respectively: 4, 9, 6 and 8 times.
TABLE 1 Pre-drill prediction Risk factor probability of occurrence
And determining a key factor of the post-drilling loss according to the step S120. Through the analysis of the actual drilling results and the data thereof, 27 actual drilling loss key factors are shown in table 2, and the frequency of occurrence of the trap, charge, storage and later-stage storage as the actual loss key factors is respectively as follows: 3 times, 9 times, 8 times and 7 times.
TABLE 2 Key factors statistical table for drilling fluid loss
And counting the frequency of the consistency risk factors according to the step S130. Comparing the pre-drilling hidden key risk prediction of each target with the actual after-drilling loss factors thereof, counting the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factors, wherein the frequency of occurrence of the consistency risk factors of trap, charge, storage and later-stage storage is as follows: 3 times, 7 times, 5 times and 5 times.
TABLE 3 statistical table of frequency of occurrence of consistency risk factors before drilling and after drilling
The statistical data in table 3 are used to draw a comparison graph of key risk factors before and after drilling, as shown in fig. 2, black blocks on a diagonal of 45 degrees are the occurrence frequency of the consistency risk factors, and as can be seen from fig. 2, the occurrence frequency of the consistency risk factors is more concentrated, which indicates that the prediction effect is better.
The pre-drilling predicted coincidence rate and the post-drilling actual coincidence rate are respectively calculated according to step S140.
Calculating the closing, filling, storing and post-preservation as key risk factors according to the expression (1), wherein the respective pre-drilling prediction coincidence rates are as follows: 75%, 78%, 83% and 63%, which shows that the accuracy of the prediction before drilling of the four risk factors is as follows from large to small: storage, filling, trapping and late-term preservation.
Calculating the actual after-drilling coincidence rates of trap, charge, storage and later-period storage as key risk factors according to the expression (2) respectively as follows: 100%, 78%, 63% and 71%, which illustrate that the recognized degrees of the four risk factors after drilling are: trapping, filling, preserving and reserving.
The pre-drill predicted compliance rate and the post-drill actual compliance rate are shown in table 4.
TABLE 4 calculation Table of the pre-drilling and post-drilling coincidence rates
| Risk factor | Trap ring | Filling with | Reservoir(s) | Late stage preservation |
| Frequency of consistency risk factor (times) | 3 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Frequency of occurrence of critical risk factors before drilling (times) | 4 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
| Frequency of occurrence of actual key loss after drilling | 3 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| Predicted before drilling compliance (%) | 75 | 78 | 83 | 63 |
| After drilling practicePercent match (%) | 100 | 78 | 63 | 71 |
Compared with the traditional qualitative analysis method, the embodiment of the invention aims at the actual characteristic of large geological risk of target drilling, adopts the risk analysis technology and the pre-drilling and post-drilling comparison method, can generate the more scientific, reliable and practical pre-drilling and post-drilling comparison method for key geological risk factors of the drilling target, and provides effective decision basis and basis for target evaluation and pre-exploration well deployment of oil companies, thereby perfecting the target evaluation standard, being beneficial to reducing exploration risk and improving the decision level.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the above descriptions are only for the convenience of understanding the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. A pre-drilling and post-drilling analysis method for key geological risk factors of a drilling target comprises the following steps:
predicting the risk factors before drilling, determining key risk factors before drilling, and counting the frequency of the key risk factors before drilling;
obtaining the after-drilling loss factors, determining the after-drilling loss key factors, and counting the frequency of the after-drilling loss key factors;
determining a consistency risk factor before drilling and after drilling according to the key risk factor before drilling and the key loss factor after drilling, and counting to obtain the frequency of the consistency risk factor;
obtaining a predicted pre-drilling coincidence rate and an actual post-drilling coincidence rate based on the pre-drilling key risk factor, the post-drilling disfavor key factor and the occurrence frequency of the consistency risk factor, and carrying out quantitative analysis on the key geological risk factors to indicate the true reason of the prediction error;
the pre-drilling prediction coincidence rate is defined as the frequency of the occurrence of the consistency risk factor divided by the frequency of the occurrence of the pre-drilling key risk factor corresponding to the consistency risk factor; the pre-drilling risk factors and post-drilling disfavor factors each include trapping, filling, pooling, and post-preservation.
2. The method of claim 1, in determining the pre-drill key risk factor, comprising:
estimating the occurrence probability of each pre-drilling risk factor;
and determining the factor with the minimum occurrence probability in the risk factors before drilling as the key risk factor before drilling.
3. The method of any one of claims 1 to 2, when determining a key factor for post-drill loss, comprising:
reevaluating the loss factors after drilling;
and determining the factors with the worst reservoir conditions or no reservoir conditions in the evaluated factors as the key factors of the loss after drilling.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein when determining the pre-drilling and post-drilling consistency risk factor according to the pre-drilling key risk factor and the post-drilling disfavor key factor, determining a factor with the same pre-drilling key risk factor and post-drilling disfavor key factor as the consistency risk factor.
5. The method of claim 1,
the higher the value of the pre-drilling prediction coincidence rate is, the higher the accuracy of prediction by utilizing the consistency risk factor is;
the lower the value of the pre-drilling prediction compliance rate, the lower the accuracy of the prediction using the consistency risk factor.
6. The method of claim 4, wherein the post-drilling actual compliance rate is defined as the frequency of occurrence of a consistency risk factor divided by the frequency of occurrence of a post-drilling loss key factor corresponding to the factor.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein:
the higher the value of the post-drilling actual compliance rate, the higher the likelihood that the consistency risk factor can be identified;
the lower the value of the post-drill actual compliance rate, the lower the likelihood that the consistency risk factor can be identified.
8. The method of claim 1, further comprising, prior to obtaining the pre-drill predicted compliance rate and the post-drill actual compliance rate:
and drawing a comparison graph by using the frequency of the occurrence of the key risk factors before drilling and the key loss factors after drilling to judge the effect of the prediction before drilling.
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