CN107292411B - Method and device for predicting recoverable reserves scale of accumulation combined technology - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for predicting the recoverable reserves of a tibetan combination technology, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area; acquiring the technology recoverable reserve distribution of each target area; sampling the probability distribution of the occlusion factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area respectively; judging whether the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition or not, and if so, acquiring the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology; repeating the sampling process until the effective sampling times meet a preset value; generating the recoverable reserve distribution of the reservoir combination technology according to the recoverable reserve sum of a plurality of sampling technologies; and then calculating to obtain the recoverable reserve of the tibetan combination technology. The method provided by the invention can enable the predicted recoverable reserve of the accumulation combination technology to be closer to the actual situation, thereby providing a basis for exploration planning and deployment of the accumulation combination.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of oil and gas exploration, in particular to a method and a device for predicting recoverable reserves of a reservoir combination technology in a scale mode.
Background
The hydrocarbon-containing geological unit comprises four layers of a hydrocarbon-containing basin, a hydrocarbon-containing system, a reservoir combination and a trap, wherein the reservoir combination is the third layer and refers to a set consisting of a plurality of distant view traps or hydrocarbon reservoirs which are positioned in the same exploration layer, have similar spatial positions and similar geological characteristics (including hydrocarbon source rocks, trap types, structural development history, deposition environment and the like). The oil company plans and deploys the oil company as a whole in the process of establishing an exploration deployment scheme, and predicts the technology recoverable reserves scale before drilling up to be used as the basis of exploration and deployment.
The method for predicting the recoverable reserves of the existing reservoir combination technology is to arithmetically sum the recoverable reserves of the technologies of all target areas (including various exploration objects such as a long-range trap, an oil-gas reservoir and a reserve calculation unit) in the reservoir combination, and the method only embodies an ideal situation, does not consider the exploration risks of all the target areas from the integral perspective of the reservoir combination, and has more optimistic evaluation results, so the requirements of exploration planning and deployment cannot be well met.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method and a device for predicting the recoverable reserves of a tibetan combination technology, which are used for solving the technical problems that the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology in the prior art are not accurately predicted and the exploration planning and deployment requirements cannot be met.
The invention provides a method for predicting the recoverable reserves scale of a tibetan combination technology, which comprises the following steps:
101, acquiring the probability distribution of reservoir forming factors of each target area, wherein the reservoir forming factors comprise reservoir stratum, filling, trapping and storage;
102, acquiring the technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area;
103, sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area respectively;
104, judging whether the product of sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets accumulation conditions or not, and if so, acquiring sum of recoverable reserves of a sampling technology, wherein the target area to be drilled is the target area which is preferentially drilled in the accumulation combination, and the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology and the recoverable reserves of the technology of each target area in the current sampling;
106, generating the recoverable reserve distribution of the reservoir combination technology according to the recoverable reserve sum of the obtained sampling technology;
and step 107, calculating to obtain the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves distribution of the tibetan combination technology.
Further, step 101 specifically includes:
carrying out geological risk analysis on each target area, and carrying out probability assignment on the accumulation factors of each target area to obtain probability values of the accumulation factors;
and constructing the probability distribution of the hiding factors for each hiding factor of each target area according to the probability value of each hiding factor, wherein the probability distribution of the hiding factors obeys 0-1 probability distribution.
Further, step 102 specifically includes:
acquiring the technical recoverable reserves of each target area;
and generating the technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area according to the technical recoverable reserve of each target area.
Further, step 103 specifically includes:
generating a reservoir factor random number and a reserve random number for the probability distribution of the reservoir factors of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area respectively;
and according to the generated random numbers of the accumulation factors and the random numbers of the reserves, respectively sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area.
Further, step 104 specifically includes:
multiplying the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled to obtain the product of the accumulation factors;
judging whether the product of the accumulation forming factors is equal to the accumulation forming condition, wherein the value of the accumulation forming condition is set to be 1;
if so, the get sample technique may be applied to sum or not, and step 103 is executed.
Further, the acquiring sampling technique may acquire reserves and specifically include:
acquiring the accumulation factor probability distribution sample value of each target area and the storable amount sample value of each target area;
multiplying the product of the accumulation factor probability distribution sample values of the target area and the technical acquirable reserve sample value to obtain the final product of the target area;
the final products of the target regions are summed to obtain a sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technique.
Another aspect of the present invention provides a device for predicting the recoverable reserves of a tibetan combination technique, comprising:
the reservoir formation factor probability distribution acquisition module is used for acquiring the reservoir formation factor probability distribution of each target area, wherein the reservoir formation factors comprise reservoir, filling, trapping and storage;
a technology recoverable storage distribution acquisition module for acquiring technology recoverable storage distribution of each target area;
the sampling module is used for sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area respectively and triggering the judgment module;
the judging module is used for judging whether the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition or not, and if so, triggering the sampling technology to collect the reserves and the acquiring module, wherein the target area to be drilled is the target area which is preferentially drilled in the accumulation combination;
the sampling technology recoverable reserve and acquisition module is used for acquiring the sum of the sampling technology recoverable reserve and the technology recoverable reserve of each target area in the sampling;
the calculation module is used for triggering the sampling module until the effective sampling times meet a preset value;
the device comprises a sampling technology extractable reserve distribution acquisition module, a reservoir combination technology extractable reserve distribution acquisition module and a reservoir combination technology extractable reserve distribution generation module, wherein the sampling technology extractable reserve distribution acquisition module is used for acquiring the extractable reserve sum of the sampling technology;
and the depositable reserve acquisition module of the depositable combination technology is used for calculating and acquiring the depositable reserve of the depositable combination technology according to the depositable reserve distribution of the depositable combination technology.
Further, the acquisition module for probability distribution of accumulation factors specifically includes:
the first accumulation factor probability distribution acquisition submodule is used for carrying out geological risk analysis on each target area, carrying out probability assignment on accumulation factors of each target area and obtaining probability values of the accumulation factors;
and the second hiding factor probability distribution acquisition submodule is used for constructing the hiding factor probability distribution for each hiding factor of each target area according to each hiding factor probability value, and the hiding factor probability distribution obeys 0-1 probability distribution.
Further, the technology is a recoverable reserve distribution acquisition module, which specifically comprises:
a first technology recoverable reserve distribution acquisition submodule for acquiring the technology recoverable reserve of each target area;
and the second technology recoverable reserves distribution acquisition submodule is used for generating the technology recoverable reserves distribution of each target area according to the technology recoverable reserves of each target area.
Further, the sampling module specifically includes:
the first sampling submodule is used for respectively generating a storage factor random number and a reserve random number for the storage factor probability distribution of each target area and the technology collectable reserve distribution of each target area;
and the second sampling submodule is used for respectively sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area according to the generated random numbers of the accumulation factors and the random numbers of the reserve.
The invention provides a method and a device for forecasting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology, which respectively sample the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves of each target area, and calculate the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology under the condition that the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of the target area to be drilled meets the tibetan condition, and then calculate the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology. Thereby providing basis for exploration planning deployment of the reservoir combination.
Drawings
The invention will be described in more detail hereinafter on the basis of embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings. Wherein:
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for predicting the recoverable reserves size of the tibetan combining technique according to a first embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for predicting the recoverable reserves scale according to the second embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a reserves-recoverable scale prediction apparatus according to a third embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a reserves size predicting apparatus according to the tibetan combination technique of the fourth embodiment of the present invention.
In the drawings, like parts are provided with like reference numerals. The figures are not drawn to scale.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further explained with reference to the drawings.
Example one
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for predicting the recoverable reserves size of the tibetan combining technique according to a first embodiment of the present invention; as shown in fig. 1, the present embodiment provides a method for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology, which includes:
Specifically, the prediction of the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology is the prediction of the recoverable reserves of the technology of the tibetan combination. The reservoir composition refers to a set consisting of a plurality of distant view traps or oil and gas reservoirs which are positioned in the same exploration layer, have similar spatial positions and similar geological features (including source rocks, trap types, structural development history, deposition environment and the like). The target area is various exploration objects such as a long-range trap, an oil-gas reservoir, a reserve calculation unit and the like contained in the reservoir combination. In this step, each target area in the occlusion combination is analyzed to obtain probability distribution of each occlusion factor of each target area, that is, probability distribution of each occlusion factor of each target area in the occlusion combination needs to be obtained.
Specifically, the technical recoverable reserve refers to the maximum amount that can be predicted to be recovered under the prior art conditions, and the technical recoverable reserve distribution is the probability distribution of the technical recoverable reserve.
And 103, respectively sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area.
Specifically, the sampling method may adopt a sampling method in the prior art, such as a drawing method, a random number method, and the like, which is not limited herein.
And 104, judging whether the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition, if so, turning to 104', and if not, turning to 103 to execute. Wherein, the target area to be drilled is the target area which is drilled preferentially in the occlusion combination.
Specifically, in the actual work of exploration planning and deployment of oil companies, for a reservoir combination composed of a plurality of target areas, a target area with a large technology recoverable reserve scale and a low exploration risk is usually selected for drilling first, and then whether the rest target areas are drilled continuously is determined according to the drilling result of the target area so as to avoid the exploration risk as much as possible, so that the technology recoverable reserve of the whole reservoir combination is predicted to be more suitable for the actual situation on the premise that whether the target area to be drilled meets the reservoir condition. Multiplying the sampling values of the probability distribution of the four accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled, judging whether the product meets the accumulation condition, wherein the accumulation condition is the condition for obtaining oil and gas breakthrough, if the product meets the accumulation condition, executing the step 104', and if the product does not meet the accumulation condition, executing the step 103.
And step 104', acquiring the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology and the recoverable reserves of the technology of each target area in the sampling.
And 105, repeatedly executing the steps 103 to 104 until the effective sampling times meet the preset value.
Specifically, the preset value, i.e., the maximum effective sampling frequency, may be set according to actual conditions, and the larger the preset value is, the more the effective sampling frequency is, and the more accurate the recoverable reserve distribution of the tibetan combination technology obtained in the following steps is. The effective sampling times refer to the times that the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition, and if the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled does not meet the accumulation condition after a certain time of sampling, the sampling is not calculated within the effective sampling times.
And 106, generating the recoverable reserves distribution of the reservoir combination technology according to the recoverable reserves of the obtained sampling technology.
Specifically, the sum of the recoverable reserves of the plurality of sampling technologies obtained in the previous step is used for generating recoverable reserve distribution of the reservoir combination technology, and the more the recoverable reserves and the number of the sampling technologies are, the more the recoverable reserve distribution of the reservoir combination technology is generated, the more the recoverable reserve distribution of the reservoir combination technology meets the actual situation.
And step 107, calculating to obtain the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves distribution of the tibetan combination technology.
The step can be implemented by using a method in the prior art, and is not limited herein.
The method for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology provided by the embodiment comprises the steps of respectively sampling the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves of each target area, calculating and obtaining the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology under the condition that the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of the target area to be drilled meets the tibetan condition, and then calculating the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology.
Example two
This embodiment is a supplementary explanation based on the above embodiment.
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for predicting the recoverable reserves scale according to the second embodiment of the present invention; as shown in fig. 2, the present embodiment provides a method for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology, which includes:
and step 1011, carrying out geological risk analysis on each target area, carrying out probability assignment on the accumulation factors of each target area, and obtaining the probability value of each accumulation factor.
Specifically, the geological risk analysis of each target area can be quantitatively judged by combining six factors of 'birth, storage, covering, enclosing, transportation and protection' influencing the target area accumulation. The six elements can be generally simplified into four reservoir formation factors, namely reservoir filling, trapping and storage, and probability assignment is carried out on the corresponding factors by using the respective occurrence probability of the four reservoir formation factors to obtain the probability value of each reservoir formation factor so as to represent the risk of the reservoir formation factor.
And 1012, constructing the probability distribution of the hiding factors for each hiding factor of each target area according to the probability value of each hiding factor, wherein the probability distribution of the hiding factors obeys 0-1 probability distribution.
Specifically, the probability distributions of reservoir, filling, trapping and reserve-forming factors are all constructed based on a 0-1 probability distribution model. Wherein, 0 represents that the Tibetan factor is invalid, and 1 represents that the Tibetan factor is valid, and respectively represents the probability of failure and success of the Tibetan factor.
Further, acquiring the probability distribution of the reservoir forming factors of each target area according to the geological correlation of each target area. I.e., the probability distribution of the reservoir factors, should be constructed to take into account the geological correlations between the target zones. For the related occlusion factors shared by all target areas, establishing uniform probability distribution for the common use of all target areas based on occlusion combinations; and for the independent occlusion factors of each target area, respectively and independently constructing according to the risk analysis result of each target area.
Specifically, the technical recoverable capacity of each target region may be calculated by methods known in the art, such as by a volumetric method or an uncertainty resource storage calculation method, to obtain a plurality of technical recoverable capacities of the target regions. For example, when the technology recoverable reserve of the target area is obtained by using the volumetric method, each parameter of the technology recoverable reserve used for calculating the target area is analyzed, and each parameter is valued by adopting a random simulation method, so that the technology recoverable reserve of the target area is obtained.
Specifically, the technical recoverable resource distribution of the target region is the predicted probability distribution of the technical recoverable resource of the target region.
1031, generating a deposit factor random number and a reserve random number for the deposit factor probability distribution of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area respectively.
Specifically, the sampling method in this embodiment adopts a random sampling method, so that the probability distribution of the accumulation factor of each target area and the technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area in this step need to generate a random number of the accumulation factor and a random number of the reserve respectively, so as to facilitate the use in the subsequent steps.
And 1032, respectively sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area according to the generated random numbers of the accumulation factors and the random numbers of the reserve.
Specifically, after the accumulation factor random number and the reserve random number are obtained, the probability distribution of the accumulation factor of each target area and the technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area are respectively sampled according to a random sampling method, wherein the obtained accumulation factor sample value is 0 or 1 (because the probability distribution of the accumulation factor obeys 0-1 probability distribution).
Further, step 1032 may also include,
when the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area is sampled, whether the accumulation factors of each target area are geologically completely related or not is judged, if yes, the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of any target area is sampled for one time to obtain a sampling value, and the accumulation factors of the rest target areas are endowed with the sampling value.
Specifically, if geological correlation between the target regions is considered when constructing the probability distribution of the reservoir factors, the probability distribution of the reservoir factors having geological complete correlation will be the same, and when sampling the probability distribution of the reservoir factors of each target region, only the probability distribution of the reservoir factors of one target region needs to be sampled, and the reservoir factors of other target regions can share the sampled value.
Specifically, the sampling values of the probability distribution of the four accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled are multiplied to obtain the product of the accumulation factors.
In step 1042, it is determined whether the hidden factor product is equal to the hidden condition, where the value of the hidden condition is set to 1, if yes, go to step 1043, and if not, go to step 1031.
Specifically, if the product of the accumulation factor is 1, it indicates that the target area to be drilled has accumulation conditions in the current sampling, the oil-gas breakthrough is obtained when the drilling is completed this time, the sampling result should be recorded, and the step 1043 is executed; if the product of the accumulation factor products is 0, it indicates that the target area to be drilled cannot obtain oil-gas breakthrough in the sampling, the sampling result of the sampling should be discarded, and the step 1031 is executed. The sampling result comprises the probability distribution sampling values of the accumulation factors of all the target areas and the technical acquirable storage distribution sampling values of all the target areas.
Specifically, according to the sampling result in step 1042, the four accumulation factor probability distribution samples of the target area are multiplied by the technical storable amount distribution samples thereof to obtain the final product of the target area, and if the final product of the target area is 0, it means that the target area does not obtain the oil and gas breakthrough in the current round of random sampling. And adding the final products of all the target areas to obtain the sum of the recoverable reserves of the technology in the sampling, namely the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology.
And 105, repeatedly executing the steps 1031 to 1042 until the effective sampling times meet a preset value.
Specifically, the preset value, i.e., the maximum effective sampling frequency, may be set according to actual conditions, and the larger the preset value is, the more the effective sampling frequency is, and the more accurate the recoverable reserve distribution of the tibetan combination technology obtained in the following steps is.
And 106, generating the recoverable reserves distribution of the reservoir combination technology according to the recoverable reserves of the obtained sampling technology.
And step 107, calculating to obtain the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves distribution of the tibetan combination technology.
The steps 106 to 107 can be referred to the corresponding description in the first embodiment, and are not described herein again.
The method for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology provided by the embodiment comprises the steps of respectively sampling the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves of each target area, calculating and obtaining the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology under the condition that the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of the target area to be drilled meets the tibetan condition, and then calculating the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology.
EXAMPLE III
The present embodiment is an apparatus embodiment, and is configured to perform the method in the first embodiment.
FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a reserves-recoverable scale prediction apparatus according to a third embodiment of the present invention; as shown in fig. 3, the present embodiment provides a device for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology, which includes a probability distribution obtaining module 201 of the tibetan factors, a recoverable reserves distribution obtaining module 202 of the target area technology, a sampling module 203, a determining module 204, a recoverable reserves and obtaining module 205 of the sampling technology, a calculating module 206, a recoverable reserves distribution obtaining module 207 of the tibetan combination technology, and a recoverable reserves obtaining module 208 of the tibetan combination technology.
The reservoir formation factor probability distribution obtaining module 201 is configured to obtain reservoir formation factor probability distributions of the target areas, where the reservoir formation factors include reservoir, filling, trapping, and storage;
a target area technology recoverable reserve distribution acquisition module 202 for acquiring technology recoverable reserve distribution of each target area;
the sampling module 203 is used for sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technology recoverable storage distribution of each target area respectively and triggering the judgment module 204;
the judging module 204 is used for judging whether the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition or not, and if so, triggering the sampling technology storable amount and obtaining module 205, wherein the target area to be drilled is the target area which is preferentially drilled in the accumulation combination;
a sampling technology recoverable reserve sum obtaining module 205, configured to obtain a sampling technology recoverable reserve sum, where the sampling technology recoverable reserve sum is a sum of technology recoverable reserves of each target area in the current sampling;
a calculating module 206, configured to trigger the sampling module 203 until the number of valid samples satisfies a preset value;
a reservoir combination technology recoverable reserve distribution acquisition module 207 for generating a reservoir combination technology recoverable reserve distribution according to the sum of the acquired sampling technology recoverable reserves;
and the reserves-recoverable-by-occlusion-combined-technology acquisition module 208 is used for calculating and acquiring reserves-recoverable-by-occlusion-combined-technology according to the reserves-recoverable-by-occlusion-combined-technology distribution.
The present embodiment is a device embodiment corresponding to the method embodiment, and specific reference may be made to the description in the first embodiment, which is not described herein again.
The device for predicting the recoverable reserve scale of the tibetan combination technology provided by this embodiment samples the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area through the sampling module 203, and under the condition that the product of the sampled values of the probability distribution of the tibetan factors of the target area to be drilled meets the tibetan condition is judged by the judging module 204, the recoverable reserve distribution of the tibetan combination technology is calculated and obtained by the recoverable reserve distribution obtaining module 207 of the tibetan combination technology, and then the recoverable reserve of the tibetan combination technology is calculated according to the recoverable reserve distribution of the tibetan combination technology through the recoverable reserve obtaining module 208 of the tibetan combination technology, which not only considers the exploration risk and the technical recoverable reserve scale of each target area in the tibetan combination, but also considers the drilling and deployment characteristics of the tibetan combination and the geological correlation of each target area, so that the recoverable reserve of the predicted tibetan combination technology is closer to the actual situation, thereby providing basis for exploration planning deployment of the reservoir combination.
Example four
This embodiment is a supplementary description made on the basis of the third embodiment, and is used for executing the method in the second embodiment.
FIG. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a reserves-recoverable scale prediction apparatus according to the fourth embodiment of the present invention; as shown in fig. 4, the present embodiment provides a device for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology, which includes a probability distribution obtaining module 201 of the tibetan factors, a recoverable reserves distribution obtaining module 202 of the target area technology, a sampling module 203, a determining module 204, a recoverable reserves and obtaining module 205 of the sampling technology, a calculating module 206, a recoverable reserves distribution obtaining module 207 of the tibetan combination technology, and a recoverable reserves obtaining module 208 of the tibetan combination technology.
The hiding factor probability distribution obtaining module 201 specifically includes a first hiding factor probability distribution obtaining sub-module 2011 and a second hiding factor probability distribution obtaining sub-module 2012.
The first accumulation factor probability distribution obtaining submodule 2011 is configured to perform geological risk analysis on each target area, perform probability assignment on the accumulation factors of each target area, and obtain probability values of each accumulation factor;
the second hiding factor probability distribution obtaining sub-module 2012 is configured to construct a hiding factor probability distribution for each hiding factor of each target area according to each hiding factor probability value, where the hiding factor probability distribution obeys 0-1 probability distribution.
The target area technology recoverable reserve distribution acquisition module 202 specifically includes: a first-technique collectable-amount distribution acquisition sub-module 2021 and a second-technique collectable-amount distribution acquisition sub-module 2022.
The first technology recoverable reserve distribution acquisition submodule 2021 is configured to acquire the technology recoverable reserve of each target area;
the second technology recoverable deposit distribution acquisition submodule 2022 is configured to generate the technology recoverable deposit distribution for each target area according to the technology recoverable deposit for each target area.
The sampling module 203 specifically includes: a first sampling sub-module 2031 and a second sampling sub-module 2032.
The first sampling submodule 2031 is configured to generate a storage factor random number and a reserve random number for the storage factor probability distribution of each target area and the technology recoverable reserve distribution of each target area, respectively;
the second sampling sub-module 2032 is configured to sample the probability distribution of the accumulation factor of each target area and the technical recoverable storage distribution of each target area according to the generated random number of the accumulation factor and the random number of the storage.
Further, the determining module 204 is specifically configured to multiply the sample values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors in the target area to be drilled to obtain an accumulation factor product; and judging whether the accumulation factor product is equal to the accumulation condition, wherein the value of the accumulation condition is set to be 1.
Further, the sampling technique recoverable storage and acquisition module 205 specifically includes: a first sampling technique recoverable storage sub-module 2051, a second sampling technique recoverable storage sub-module 2052, and a third sampling technique recoverable storage sub-module 2053.
Wherein, the first sampling technique storable quantity and acquisition submodule 2051 is used for acquiring the storage factor probability distribution sample value of each target area and the technique storable quantity sample value of each target area;
a second sampling technique acquirable capacity and acquisition submodule 2052 for multiplying the product of the depositable factor probability distribution samples of the target area by the technical acquirable capacity samples thereof to obtain a final product of the target area;
a third sampling technique recoverable volume sum sub-module 2053 is used to sum the final products of the target regions to obtain a sampling technique recoverable volume sum.
The present embodiment is an embodiment of an apparatus corresponding to the method embodiment, and specific reference may be made to the description in embodiment two, which is not described herein again.
While the invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, various modifications may be made and equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof without departing from the scope of the invention. In particular, the technical features mentioned in the embodiments can be combined in any way as long as there is no structural conflict. It is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiments disclosed, but that the invention will include all embodiments falling within the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting the recoverable reserves of a tibetan combination technology is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 101, obtaining the probability distribution of reservoir forming factors of each target area in a reservoir forming combination, wherein the reservoir forming combination comprises a plurality of target areas, and the reservoir forming factors comprise reservoir, filling, trapping and storage, and comprise:
carrying out geological risk analysis on each target area, and carrying out probability assignment on the accumulation factors of each target area to obtain probability values of the accumulation factors;
constructing a hiding factor probability distribution for each hiding factor of each target area according to each hiding factor probability value, wherein the hiding factor probability distribution obeys 0-1 probability distribution;
step 102, obtaining technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area, comprising:
acquiring the technical recoverable reserves of each target area;
generating the technical recoverable reserve distribution of each target area according to the technical recoverable reserve of each target area;
step 103, sampling the probability distribution of the occlusion factor of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area respectively, including:
generating a reservoir factor random number and a reserve random number for the probability distribution of the reservoir factors of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area respectively;
according to the generated random numbers of the accumulation factors and the random numbers of the reserves, the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area are respectively sampled;
step 104, judging whether the product of sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition, if so, acquiring the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology, wherein the target area to be drilled is the target area which is preferentially drilled in the accumulation combination, and the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology and the recoverable reserves of the technology of each target area in the current sampling comprises the following steps:
multiplying the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled to obtain the product of the accumulation factors;
judging whether the product of the accumulation forming factors is equal to the accumulation forming condition, wherein the value of the accumulation forming condition is set to be 1;
if yes, the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology is obtained, or the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology is not equal, the step 103 is executed, wherein the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology specifically comprises the following steps:
acquiring the accumulation factor probability distribution sample value of each target area and the storable amount sample value of each target area;
multiplying the product of the accumulation factor probability distribution sample values of the target area and the technical acquirable reserve sample value to obtain the final product of the target area;
adding the final products of the target areas to obtain the sum of the recoverable reserves of the sampling technology;
step 105, repeating the step 103 to the step 104 until the effective sampling times meet a preset value;
106, generating the recoverable reserve distribution of the reservoir combination technology according to the recoverable reserve sum of the obtained sampling technology;
and step 107, calculating to obtain the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to the recoverable reserves distribution of the tibetan combination technology.
2. An apparatus for predicting the size of a recoverable reserve using the tibetan combining technique according to claim 1, comprising:
the reservoir forming factor probability distribution acquisition module is used for acquiring the reservoir forming factor probability distribution of each target area, wherein the reservoir forming combination comprises a plurality of target areas, and the reservoir forming factors comprise reservoir filling, trapping and storage;
a technology recoverable storage distribution acquisition module for acquiring technology recoverable storage distribution of each target area;
the sampling module is used for sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical recoverable reserves distribution of each target area respectively and triggering the judgment module;
the judging module is used for judging whether the product of the sampling values of the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of the target area to be drilled meets the accumulation condition or not, and if so, triggering the sampling technology to collect the reserves and the acquiring module, wherein the target area to be drilled is the target area which is drilled preferentially in the accumulation combination;
the sampling technology recoverable reserve and acquisition module is used for acquiring the sum of the sampling technology recoverable reserve and the technology recoverable reserve of each target area in the sampling;
the calculation module is used for triggering the sampling module until the effective sampling times meet a preset value;
the device comprises a sampling technology extractable reserve distribution acquisition module, a reservoir combination technology extractable reserve distribution acquisition module and a reservoir combination technology extractable reserve distribution generation module, wherein the sampling technology extractable reserve distribution acquisition module is used for acquiring the extractable reserve sum of the sampling technology;
and the depositable reserve acquisition module of the depositable combination technology is used for calculating and acquiring the depositable reserve of the depositable combination technology according to the depositable reserve distribution of the depositable combination technology.
3. The device for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to claim 2, wherein the module for obtaining the probability distribution of the tibetan factors specifically comprises:
the first accumulation factor probability distribution acquisition submodule is used for carrying out geological risk analysis on each target area, carrying out probability assignment on accumulation factors of each target area and obtaining probability values of the accumulation factors;
and the second hiding factor probability distribution acquisition submodule is used for constructing the hiding factor probability distribution for each hiding factor of each target area according to each hiding factor probability value, and the hiding factor probability distribution obeys 0-1 probability distribution.
4. The device for predicting the recoverable reserves of the tibetan combination technology according to claim 2, wherein the technology recoverable reserve distribution acquiring module specifically comprises:
a first technology recoverable reserve distribution acquisition submodule for acquiring the technology recoverable reserve of each target area;
and the second technology recoverable reserves distribution acquisition submodule is used for generating the technology recoverable reserves distribution of each target area according to the technology recoverable reserves of each target area.
5. The device for predicting the recoverable reserve size of a tibetan combination technology according to claim 2, wherein the sampling module comprises:
the first sampling submodule is used for respectively generating a storage factor random number and a reserve random number for the storage factor probability distribution of each target area and the technology collectable reserve distribution of each target area;
and the second sampling submodule is used for respectively sampling the probability distribution of the accumulation factors of each target area and the technical collectable reserve distribution of each target area according to the generated random numbers of the accumulation factors and the random numbers of the reserve.
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