Background technology
Heavy showers occurs often can be with strong wind, thunderstorm, and may trigger the geological disaster such as come down, cause line tripping,
Broken string, column foot unstability even transformer such as are flooded at the power grid accident, such as in mid-June, 2010 to early July southern some areas
Continue heavy showers and flood causes the area power grids such as Jiangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Zhejiang, Chongqing to be partially damaged, add up to stop transport
1,220kV circuits, 4,110kV transformer stations, 23, circuit, 31,35kV transformer stations, 94, circuit, 10kV distribution lines 2433
Bar, power distribution station 38646,329.63 ten thousand customer power supplies are affected;" 7.21 " Beijing torrential rain in 2012, causes mountain torrents sudden and violent
Hair, causes 1 110kV transformer station to flood full cut-off, 450 kilometers of transmission line of electricity of damage, has a strong impact on electric power netting safe running.With across
Area's power grid construction and development, transmission line of electricity need the region by a variety of meteorological conditions and geologic feature, the secondary geology of heavy showers
Normal operation and city dweller normal production and living of the disaster easily to power system, which are brought, to be had a strong impact on, and is had and growed in intensity
Gesture.And in face of this grave danger, power grid enterprises rely solely on conventional " handling afterwards " strategy easily cause it is very big
Passively, be unfavorable for power network prevent and reduce natural disasters work development and rescue work deployment.
Currently, relatively fewer, especially shortage geological disaster and strong drop is carried out in geo-hazard early-warning research along transmission line of electricity
Effective combination of rain, early warning effect is very limited.Therefore, consider along the transmission line of electricity of region precipitation feature and
Geological conditions, set up heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards alarm computational methods and promote prediction and warning work gesture must
OK, to carry out targetedly power network heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards prediction and warning, it is secondary that lifting electrical network facilities resist heavy showers
The ability of geological disaster, safeguards power network safety operation.
The content of the invention
Present invention aims at precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards alarm computational methods and system along a kind of transmission line of electricity of offer,
To solve to alert precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards the technical problem for lacking research.
To achieve the above object, calculating side is alerted the invention provides precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards along a kind of transmission line of electricity
Method, comprises the following steps:
Obtain history rainfall product data, future anticipation rainfall product data and rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards along transmission line of electricity
Easy-suffering level exponent data;
Following effective precipitation is calculated according to history rainfall product data, future anticipation rainfall product data along transmission line of electricity;
The rainfall time dried rhizome of rehmannia is obtained according to following effective precipitation and rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level exponent data
Matter disaster alerts index;
Alert Index selection alarm severity to formulate Disposal Strategies according to alarm severity according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards.
It is corresponding with the above method, alerted present invention also offers precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards along a kind of transmission line of electricity
Computing system, including:
Data acquisition module:For obtain history rainfall product data along transmission line of electricity, future anticipation rainfall product data with
And rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level exponent data;
First computing module:Along according to transmission line of electricity history rainfall product data, based on future anticipation rainfall product data
Calculate following effective precipitation;
Second computing module:For according to following effective precipitation and rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level index number
Index is alerted according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards are obtained;
Output module:For alerting Index selection alarm severity according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards with according to alarm severity system
Determine Disposal Strategies.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
1st, the influence situation of heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards along transmission line of electricity more can be quickly grasped, power network is familiar with
Response characteristic of the geological disaster to precipitation.
2nd, it is workable.
3rd, the specific aim of transmission line of electricity heavy rain Prevention And Treatment of Geological Hazards is improved.According to analysis result, it can formulate in time
Emergency disposal strategy, for there is the area of precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards alarm, carries out related power network and prevents and reduces natural disasters work in advance
Make arrangement, reduce grid loss.
In addition to objects, features and advantages described above, the present invention also has other objects, features and advantages.
Below with reference to accompanying drawings, the present invention is further detailed explanation.
Embodiment
Embodiments of the invention are described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, but the present invention can be defined by the claims
Implement with the multitude of different ways of covering.
As shown in figure 1, the flow of the inventive method includes:
History rainfall product data, future anticipation rainfall product data and the secondary geology of rainfall along S1, acquisition transmission line of electricity
Disaster easy-suffering level exponent data.
Gather the rainfall product data for passing by 15 days along transmission line of electricity and following one week prediction of precipitation data, Yi Jishou
The dividing condition of the secondary geology disaster easy-suffering level of heavy showers of set pair this area transmission line of electricity area along the line, according to the reality of collection
Easy-suffering level is divided into three kinds of stable type, basicly stable type and instability mode by border situation.The other easy-suffering level of stationary level is referred to
Number is set to 1, and basicly stable easy-suffering level index is set to 2, and unstable easy-suffering level index is set to 3.Accordingly, realize collected
Whole transmission lines of electricity along heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level quantize, obtain heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards easy
Send out extent index data.
S2, following effective rainfall calculated according to history rainfall product data along transmission line of electricity, future anticipation rainfall product data
Amount.
History rainfall product data and future anticipation rainfall product data along the transmission line of electricity obtained in selecting step S1, meter
Following certain day effective precipitation is calculated, the present invention can calculate following 7th day effective precipitation.
S3, according to following effective precipitation and rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level exponent data to obtain rainfall secondary
Geological disaster alerts index.
S4, according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alert Index selection alarm severity and according to alarm severity formulate disposal plan
Slightly.
The present invention lacks research, disaster alarm for precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards influence situation along transmission line of electricity and lacked
The present situation of analysis and summary alerts computational methods, this method thinking there is provided precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards along a kind of transmission line of electricity
It is novelty, clear process, simple to operate.
Preferably, effective precipitation calculation is:
Wherein, RcThe effective precipitation of day, R will be calculated for needed for futurefThe prediction rainfall of day, R will be calculated for needed for future1
The rainfall of day proxima luce (prox. luc), R will be calculated for needed for future2The rainfall of two days a few days ago will be calculated for needed for future, the rest may be inferred, R15For
The rainfall of calculating 15 days a few days ago needed for following.
Work as RcDuring for the effective precipitation of following first day, then RfFor following first day prediction rainfall, R1To calculate day
The rainfall on the same day, R2To calculate the rainfall of the previous day day, the rest may be inferred, R15To calculate the rainfall before fortnight a few days ago;
If calculating following second day effective precipitation, RfFor following second day prediction rainfall, R1For first day future
Predict rainfall, R2For the rainfall on the day of calculating day, the rest may be inferred, R15For the rainfall before calculating 13 days a few days ago.Accordingly,
Following 7th day effective precipitation can be calculated.
Preferably, rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alarm index calculation is:
Wherein, W is heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards alarm index along transmission line of electricity, and I is heavy showers along transmission line of electricity
Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level index.
Preferably, it is according to the concrete mode of rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alarm Index selection alarm severity:
The above method is relied on, system is calculated present invention also offers precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards alarm along a kind of transmission line of electricity
System, including:
Data acquisition module:For obtain history rainfall product data along transmission line of electricity, future anticipation rainfall product data with
And rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level;
First computing module:Along according to transmission line of electricity history rainfall product data, based on future anticipation rainfall product data
Calculate following effective precipitation;
Second computing module:For according to following effective precipitation and rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level index number
Index is alerted according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards are obtained;
Output module:For alerting Index selection alarm severity and according to alarm severity system according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards
Determine Disposal Strategies.
Preferably, the calculation of the first computing module effective precipitation is:
Wherein, RcThe effective precipitation of day, R will be calculated for needed for futurefThe prediction rainfall of day, R will be calculated for needed for future1
The rainfall of day proxima luce (prox. luc), R will be calculated for needed for future2The rainfall of two days a few days ago will be calculated for needed for future, the rest may be inferred, R15For
The rainfall of calculating 15 days a few days ago needed for following.Preferably, the second computing module rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alarm index meter
Calculation mode is:
Wherein, W is heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards alarm index along transmission line of electricity, and I is heavy showers along transmission line of electricity
Secondary Geological Hazards easy-suffering level index.
Preferably, output module is according to the concrete mode of rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alarm Index selection alarm severity:
By taking yueyang, hunan area as an example, the transmission line of electricity in collection yueyang, hunan area dropped for following one week along the line computation same day
Rainfall predicts the outcome, and passes by the rainfall product data of 15 days (including calculating the same day) along local transmission line of electricity, calculates day
For on June 30th, 2016.Obtaining following effective precipitation on first day (July 1) according to the calculating of effective precipitation calculation is
107 millimeters, following effective precipitation on second day (July 2) is 110 millimeters, and following effective precipitation on 3rd day (July 3) is
106 millimeters.Calculate to obtain alerting following first day (July 1) according to rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alarm index calculation and refer to
Number is 6.9, and following alarm on second day (July 2) index is 7.0, and following alarm on 3rd day (July 3) index is 6.9.According to
Rainfall Secondary Geological Hazards alarm Index selection alarm severity concrete mode can obtain, due to along the transmission line of electricity of Yueyang Area not
The heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards alarm index come three days is all higher than 6.6, so the local following three days secondary geology of heavy showers
Disaster alarm severity is Level 1Alarming.Relevant portion can take corresponding counter-measure according to alarm severity.
In summary, precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards alert computational methods and are along a kind of transmission line of electricity that the present invention is provided
System, considers along the transmission line of electricity of region continuous many days precipitation feature and geological conditions, sets up based on secondary
The Secondary Geological Hazards of geological disaster easy-suffering level index and effective precipitation alert the computational methods of index, realize secondary geology
Disaster alarm severity judges.The influence situation of heavy showers Secondary Geological Hazards along transmission line of electricity more can be quickly grasped,
It is familiar with response characteristic of the power network geological disaster to precipitation;Improve being directed to for transmission line of electricity heavy rain Prevention And Treatment of Geological Hazards
Property.According to analysis result, emergency disposal strategy can be formulated in time, for there is the area of precipitation Secondary Geological Hazards alarm,
Carry out related power network in advance to prevent and reduce natural disasters work arrangements, reduce grid loss;And with very strong operability.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention are the foregoing is only, are not intended to limit the invention, for the skill of this area
For art personnel, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.Within the spirit and principles of the invention, that is made any repaiies
Change, equivalent substitution, improvement etc., should be included in the scope of the protection.