CN107256518B - Farmland irrigation water consumption driving factor identification method capable of measuring contribution of abundant and dry incoming water - Google Patents

Farmland irrigation water consumption driving factor identification method capable of measuring contribution of abundant and dry incoming water Download PDF

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CN107256518B
CN107256518B CN201710395471.0A CN201710395471A CN107256518B CN 107256518 B CN107256518 B CN 107256518B CN 201710395471 A CN201710395471 A CN 201710395471A CN 107256518 B CN107256518 B CN 107256518B
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water consumption
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irrigation water
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程亮
王宗志
刘克琳
彭安邦
蒋尚明
赵百营
胡霞
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Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute of National Energy Administration Ministry of Transport Ministry of Water Resources
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for identifying a driving factor of farmland irrigation water consumption capable of measuring contribution of abundant and dry incoming water, which comprises the following steps: collecting actual irrigation area, effective irrigation area, farmland irrigation water consumption and irrigation water effective utilization coefficient data of different years; considering the contribution of irrigation area, irrigation water utilization efficiency and abundant and dry incoming water change, constructing an irrigation water consumption constant equation, and decomposing farmland irrigation water consumption change into four driving factors of effective irrigation scale, actual irrigation proportion, irrigation water effective utilization coefficient and acre net irrigation water consumption, wherein the actual irrigation proportion and the acre net irrigation water consumption mainly reflect the influence of abundant and dry incoming water change; utilizing an LMDI method to deduce a driving factor contribution value measuring formula, quantitatively measuring and calculating the driving factor contribution and the incoming water rich and lean change contribution, and explaining the change of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation without residual errors; and identifying a key driving factor through the contribution value, and revealing a driving mechanism.

Description

Farmland irrigation water consumption driving factor identification method capable of measuring contribution of abundant and dry incoming water
Technical Field
The invention relates to a farmland irrigation water quantity driving factor identification method capable of measuring and calculating the contribution of abundant and dry incoming water.
Background
At present, the total amount of farmland irrigation water in China is large, the efficiency is low, and the farmland irrigation water is still in an increasing situation, so that the farmland irrigation water is one of important reasons for prominent contradiction between water resource supply and demand. The driving factors influencing the change of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation are identified, the driving mechanism is disclosed, and the method has important significance for mastering the change trend of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation and making a management policy of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation so as to improve the efficiency benefit of the irrigation water, inhibit the increase of the irrigation water and relieve the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.
The water demand for irrigation of crops is influenced by the rich and withered meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, wind intensity and sunshine time, and the water supply for irrigation is influenced by the rich and withered hydrological factors such as precipitation and runoff. Thus, under the influence of these incoming water rich variations, the amount of water used for field irrigation shows a remarkable rich variation characteristic. However, the existing driving factor identification cannot calculate the contribution value of the abundant and dry change of the incoming water, cannot completely and quantitatively explain the change of the irrigation water consumption, and reveals an irrigation water driving mechanism.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a farmland irrigation water quantity driving factor identification method capable of measuring and calculating the contribution of abundant and dry incoming water.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a method for identifying a driving factor of farmland irrigation water quantity capable of measuring the contribution of abundant and dry incoming water comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting actual irrigation area IRR of different yearstEffective irrigation area IRAtWater consumption WA for field irrigationtAnd irrigation water effective utilization coefficient ηtData;
(2) establishing a driving factor identification model: the following water consumption identity is used:
Figure GDA0002268840970000011
in the formula, WAt、IRRt、ηtAnd IRAtThe water consumption, the actual irrigation area, the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water and the effective irrigation area of the t-th year farmland irrigation are respectively, and the water consumption of the farmland irrigation is decomposed into an effective irrigation scale Iact and an actual irrigation proportionPir, irrigation water waste degree Wir and acre net irrigation water consumption Wer four driving factors:
Figure GDA0002268840970000012
in the formula: wert＝(WAtηt)/IRRt，Wirt＝1/ηt，Pirt＝IRRt/IRAt，Iactt＝IRAtAnd the variable quantity delta W of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation in the period of t-t +1 yearaCan be expressed as:
Figure GDA0002268840970000021
(3) four driving factor contribution values of effective irrigation area Iact, actual irrigation proportion Pir, irrigation water waste degree Wir and mu net irrigation water consumption Wer are deduced by using a log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, which is as follows:
Figure GDA0002268840970000022
in the formula: wert＝(WAtηt)/IRRt，Wirt＝1/ηt，Pirt＝IRRt/IRAt，Iactt＝IRAt，L(WAt+1,WAt)＝(WAt+1-WAt)/(ln(WAt+1)-ln(WAt) ); the sum of the contribution values of the four driving factors in the formula (4) is completely equal to the variation value of the irrigation water consumption, no residual exists, and the contributions of the factors are independent and do not influence each other.
After the contribution values of all the driving factors are measured and calculated, the main driving factors are determined by comparing the contribution values, the change of the farmland irrigation water consumption in any two years is quantitatively explained, and a driving mechanism is analyzed. When the factor contribution value is a negative value, the factor is a factor for inhibiting the increase of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation, which is called an inhibition factor for short, and otherwise, the factor is a factor for promoting the increase of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation, which is called a promotion factor for short. The absolute value of the contribution value represents the strength of the inhibition and the promotion action. The factor by which the absolute value of the contribution is large is the dominant driver.
The method considers the contribution of irrigation area, irrigation water utilization efficiency and abundant and dry incoming water change, constructs an irrigation water consumption constant equation, and decomposes farmland irrigation water consumption change into four driving factors of effective irrigation scale, actual irrigation proportion, irrigation water waste degree and acre net irrigation water consumption, wherein the actual irrigation proportion and the acre net irrigation water consumption mainly reflect the influence of abundant and dry incoming water change; then, a driving factor contribution value measuring formula is deduced by utilizing an LMDI method, the driving factor contribution and the incoming water rich and withered change contribution are measured quantitatively, and the change of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation is explained without residual errors; and finally, identifying a key driving factor through the contribution value, and revealing a driving mechanism.
Detailed Description
For better understanding of the present invention, the following detailed description will be given of embodiments of the present invention by taking Shandong province as an example, but the present invention is not limited thereto.
A method for identifying driving factors of farmland irrigation water consumption in Shandong province comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting actual irrigation area IRR of three typical years of 2002,2007 and 2012 from Shandong province water resource bulletin and Shandong province statistical yearbookt(t 2002,2007,2012) effective irrigation area IRAtWater consumption WA for field irrigationtEffective utilization coefficient of irrigation water ηtData, as shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 Water for irrigation of agricultural fields in Shandong province 2002,2007 and 2012
Index (I) 2002 2007 2012
Effective irrigation area (thousand hectares) 4797.44 4836.78 4986.88
Actual irrigation area (thousand hectares) 4164.65 4160.31 4327.76
Water consumption for farmland irrigation (hundred million m)3) 170.89 144.53 133.29
Coefficient of effective utilization of irrigation water 0.5380 0.5592 0.6140
(2) Establishing a driving factor identification model: the following water consumption identity is used:
Figure GDA0002268840970000031
in the formula, WAt、IRRt、ηtAnd IRAtThe water consumption of farmland irrigation in the t year, the actual irrigation area, the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water and the effective irrigation area are respectively, and the water consumption of farmland irrigation is decomposed into an effective irrigation scale Iact, an actual irrigation proportion Pir and an irrigation water waste degree Wir and mu net irrigation water consumption Wer four driving factors:
Figure GDA0002268840970000032
in the formula: wert＝(WAtηt)/IRRt，Wirt＝1/ηt，Pirt＝IRRt/IRAt，Iactt＝IRAtAnd the variable quantity delta W of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation in the period of t-t +1 yearaCan be expressed as:
Figure GDA0002268840970000033
(3) by utilizing an LMDI method, four driving factor contribution values of effective irrigation area Iact, actual irrigation proportion Pir, irrigation water waste degree Wir and average net irrigation water quantity per mu Wer are deduced, and the driving factor contribution values are as follows:
Figure GDA0002268840970000034
in the formula: wert＝(WAtηt)/IRRt，Wirt＝1/ηt，Pirt＝IRRt/IRAt，Iactt＝IRAt，L(WAt+1,WAt)＝(WAt+1-WAt)/(ln(WAt+1)-ln(WAt)). Substituting the collected effective irrigation area, actual irrigation area, irrigation water consumption and irrigation water effective utilization coefficient into the formula (4), and measuring and calculating the contribution value of the driving factor, wherein the result is shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 Shandong province 2002-2012 units of driving factor identification result of farmland irrigation water consumption3
Figure GDA0002268840970000035
In table 2, the sum of the four drive factor contributions for the three periods is equal to the amount of farm irrigation water change, further illustrating that the method is residue-free. As can be seen from Table 2:
(1) the mu net irrigation water consumption and the irrigation water waste degree are main driving factors for reducing the farmland irrigation water consumption in Shandong province, and are the effective irrigation area and the irrigation proportion. The accumulated water consumption for farmland irrigation in Shandong province from 2002 to 2012 is reduced by 37.60 hundred million m3. Wherein the water consumption for each mu of irrigation is 147m3Per mu, reduced to 126m3The water consumption for irrigation is reduced by 23.43 hundred million m per mu3(ii) a The effective utilization coefficient of the farmland irrigation water is improved from 0.5380 to 0.6140, the increase is 14.1 percent, and the irrigation water consumption is reduced by 19.98 hundred million m3(ii) a The actual irrigation proportion is changed from 86.81% to 86.78%, so that the irrigation water consumption is reduced by 0.05 hundred million m3(ii) a The effective irrigation area is increased from 4797.44 kilo hectares to 189.44 kilo hectares and then is changed into 4986.88 kilo hectares, so that the irrigation water consumption is increased by 5.86 hundred million m3。
(2) The difference between the variation of the farmland irrigation water consumption and the contribution value of the driving factor is obvious in two stages from 2002 to 2007 and from 2007 to 2012. The water consumption for farmland irrigation in the previous stage is reduced by 26.36 hundred million m3And the latter stage is 11.24 hundred million m3. The major reasons for this difference are the drastic changes in the contribution of the acre of net irrigation water and the degree of irrigation water waste. The contribution value of the net irrigation water consumption of each mu in the two stages is-20.110 hundred million m3And-3.75 hundred million m3The contribution values of the irrigation water waste degrees are respectively-6.08 hundred million m3And-12.97 hundred million m3. The actual irrigation proportion contribution values were-1.45 billion m3 and 1.24 billion m3, respectively. The contribution value of the effective irrigation area is 1.28 hundred million m3And 4.24 hundred million m3。
(3) The contribution value of the driving factor is positively correlated with the variation, and the established contribution value calculation formula is correct and reasonable. The change amounts of the acre net irrigation water consumption in three periods of 2002-2007, 2007-2012 and 2002-2012 are respectively-17.0, -4.0 and-21.0 m3The contribution value of each mu is-20.11, -3.75 and-23.43 hundred million m3The contribution value is positively correlated with the variation of the net irrigation water consumption per mu. Contributions of the other three factorsThe value is also positively correlated with the amount of change.
(4) The abundant change of the incoming water has obvious influence on the water consumption of farmland irrigation in Shandong province. The contribution of the abundant and withered incoming water is equal to the sum of two factors of the net irrigation water consumption per mu and the actual irrigation proportion. 2002. The contribution values of the water-rich change in 2007 and 2012 were-21.65, -2.51 and-23.48 hundred million m3The contribution rates to the amount of agricultural irrigation water change were 81.79%, 22.33%, and 62.45%, respectively.

Claims (1)

1. A method for identifying a driving factor of farmland irrigation water consumption capable of measuring contribution of abundant and dry incoming water comprises the following steps:
(1) collecting actual irrigation area IRR of different yearstEffective irrigation area IRAtWater consumption WA for field irrigationtAnd irrigation water effective utilization coefficient ηtData;
(2) establishing a driving factor identification model: the following water consumption identity is used:
Figure FDA0002268840960000011
in the formula, WAt、IRRt、ηtAnd IRAtIs the irrigation water consumption of the t year farmland respectively, actual irrigation area, irrigation water utilization efficiency coefficient and effective irrigation area, decomposes irrigation water into four driving factors of effective irrigation scale Iact, actual irrigation proportion Pir, the extravagant degree Wir of irrigation water and the equal net irrigation water consumption of mu Wer:
Figure FDA0002268840960000012
in the formula: wert＝(WAtηt)/IRRt，Wirt＝1/ηt，Pirt＝IRRt/IRAt，Iactt＝IRAtAnd the variable quantity delta W of the water consumption of the farmland irrigation in the period of t-t +1 yearaCan be expressed as:
Figure FDA0002268840960000013
(3) by utilizing an LMDI method, a calculation formula of contribution values of four driving factors of effective irrigation area Iact, actual irrigation proportion Pir, irrigation water waste degree Wir and acre net irrigation water consumption Wer is deduced, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002268840960000014
in the formula: wert＝(WAtηt)/IRRt，Wirt＝1/ηt，Pirt＝IRRt/IRAt，Iactt＝IRAt，L(WAt+1,WAt)＝(WAt+1-WAt)/(ln(WAt+1)-ln(WAt))。
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