CN107194536A - The power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure and device of a kind of project investment - Google Patents
The power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure and device of a kind of project investment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment, and this method includes：Based on power supply area statistical item total investment and equipment alteration information per year, and calculate the drop-out value of power supply reliability index caused by Distribution Network Equipment unusual fluctuation and equipment construction investment totle drilling cost, the characteristics of threshold value is less than or equal to according to the difference of project investment total value and the estimated value of equipment construction investment totle drilling cost, going out equipment alteration information and project investment total value based on neural metwork training has the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models of correlation, and Project Investment is inputted into the model determines power supply reliability negative benefit.The power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure that the present invention is provided, the differentiation for not only realizing the different reliability level power distribution network project investments of different power supply areas is assessed, also realize that the input amount of money is analyzed the quantization influence of power supply reliability index, the problem of project investment can not be associated with outage information in actual production is solved, the investment construction of power distribution network is instructed.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to distribution network reliability field, the negative effect of in particular to a kind of power supply reliability of project investment
Beneficial appraisal procedure and device.
Background technology
Gradually stepped up with the continuous social and economic development with living standards of the people, people can to power supply quality and power supply
Require higher by property, inject capital into more and more, such as how minimum resource consumption, provide the user safe and reliable and high-quality
Electric energy, realize operation benefits maximize be current power distribution network production management emphasis.And in current power distribution network, due to for
Power network weak spot and key link assurance are inaccurate, there are problems that being difficult to the economy of equipment investment, so as to cause
The phenomenon such as input and income imbalance, certain customers' overinvestment, power grid construction be unbalanced, has a strong impact on power distribution network and sends out comprehensively
Exhibition, further, since project implementation process needs power failure operation, during project construction, will cause under power supply reliability index
Drop, i.e. project input produce power supply reliability negative benefit, and power supply reliability negative benefit is an important side for assessing returns of investment
Face, qualitative assessment is carried out to it can more accurately assess the cost economic benefit of power distribution network project investment.
In actual electric network construction and operation maintenance, actual investment is often carried out in units of project, different types of project,
Different to the lifting effect of distribution network reliability index, in the project implementation process, the degree such as loss of outage for causing of constructing is not yet
Together, thus, for certain investment, its reliability benefit is also different, is the reliability cost benefit of clear and definite items of different types,
So as to the investment of more preferable guide item, and then the reliability and economy of power distribution network are more effectively improved, need research project to invest
Power supply reliability cost benefit estimation method, for the lifting effect of positive benefit, i.e. project investment to power supply reliability at a specified future date,
Study more at present, and decline for construction period power supply reliability index caused by project investment and be often ignored.
Therefore, finding a kind of power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment so that its more preferable guide item
Investment, more effectively improve power distribution network reliability and economy, as those skilled in the art it is in the urgent need to address the problem of.
The content of the invention
In order to solve the above-mentioned deficiency in the presence of prior art, the present invention provides a kind of power supply reliability of project investment
Negative benefit appraisal procedure and device.The appraisal procedure includes：
I, based on power supply area statistical item total investment per year；
II, equipment alteration information is counted per year, and calculate power supply reliability caused by equipment alteration described in power distribution network and refer to
Target drop-out value；
III, according to the unusual fluctuation equipment, computing device construction investment totle drilling cost；
IV, setting deviation threshold, the difference for the estimated value for investing totle drilling cost according to project investment total value and equipment construction are less than
The characteristics of equal to the threshold value, going out equipment alteration information based on neural metwork training has the confession of correlation with project investment total value
Electric reliability negative benefit assessment models；
V, based on the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models, the negative effect of power supply reliability is determined according to Project Investment
Benefit.
It is preferred that, the putting equipment in service time field of matching unit unusual action information and the phase same date in distribution network reliability with
Construction power failure termination time field, calculates the drop-out value of the power supply reliability index of the step II.
It is preferred that, the power supply reliability index of the step II includes：Total amount when having a power failure and total caused by equipment alteration
Lack delivery.
It is preferred that, amount is calculated as follows during total power failure caused by the equipment alteration：
Always lack delivery M caused by the equipment alterationiIt is calculated as follows：
In formula, m：The frequency of power cut caused by equipment alteration is constructed；zij：Customer interrupted number when having a power failure every time； rij：Refer to
What is had a power failure every time restores electricity the time；j∈(1,2,…,m)；I ∈ (1,2,3 ..., n), which sample represented；Mij：Stop every time
The always scarce delivery of electricity.
It is preferred that, project related to the power supply reliability step I includes：Major repair project, technological transformation project, capital construction
Project, move and change project and power distribution automation project.
It is preferred that, the distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost of the step III includes：Original equipment cost and replacing equipment construction
Take；
The original equipment cost is calculated by the device type and unit type of unusual fluctuation equipment and obtained.
It is preferred that, the step IV large deviations threshold value is x%, wherein x≤10.
It is preferred that, the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models of the step IV include：Will be related to power supply reliability
The investment amount of project is as input, and power supply reliability negative benefit builds power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models as output.
It is preferred that, the capital project of the step V includes：Total investment.
A kind of power supply reliability negative benefit apparatus for evaluating of project investment, including：Data acquisition module, input module, number
According to processing module, reliability negative benefit evaluation module and output module；
The data acquisition module is used for the equipment alteration information for gathering power distribution network；
The input module is used for the data transfer of the data collecting module collected to data processing module；
The data processing module is used to be classified the equipment alteration information, and calculating is supplied caused by equipment alteration
Electric reliability negative benefit and distribution network construction invest totle drilling cost；
The reliability negative benefit evaluation module using capital project as input, power supply reliability negative benefit as output,
Using neural metwork training go out equipment alteration information and capital project there is the feature of correlation to set up the power supply of capital project can
By property negative benefit assessment models；
The pre- capital project of project that the output module output is assessed by the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models
Reliability negative benefit.
It is preferred that, the capital project includes：Total investment.
Compared with prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention are：
(1) present invention presses territorial classification, and the assessment models of different zones are generated respectively, different power supply areas can be achieved different
The differentiation of reliability level power distribution network project investment is assessed；
(2) present invention is based on the existing standard such as equipment alteration information and engineering construction budget level, goods and materials budgetary price
File, estimation distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost, can accurately estimate the project that influence is produced on distribution network reliability
Investment amount, so as to can realize that the input amount of money is analyzed the quantization influence of power supply reliability index；
(3) present invention is estimated using data fusion method to the power supply reliability benefit of project investment, can be avoided multiple
Miscellaneous Analytic modeling, so as to greatly simplify analysis process；
(4) it is proposed by the present invention to utilize each intermediate item actual investment total value and the foundation of investment one based on equipment alteration estimation
The feature of cause, the method for generating the reliability negative benefit qualitative assessment model of project investment can the investment of quantitative analysis disparity items
Influence of the scheme to distribution network reliability, solves the problem of project investment can not be associated with outage information in actual production,
So as to preferably instruct the investment construction of power distribution network.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure flow chart of the project investment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models schematic diagram based on neutral net of the invention.
Embodiment
For a better understanding of the present invention, present disclosure is done further with reference to Figure of description and example
Explanation.
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention influences different for power distribution network disparity items input on distribution network reliability
Problem, proposes a kind of power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment.Specifically include following steps：
I, based on power supply area statistical item total investment per year
Power supply area and analysis year are determined, with the power supply reliability phase in the analysis year of the statistics power supply area
The project investment total value of pass；
By power distribution network project investment region according to《Distribution network planning designing technique directive/guide》Closed in (Q/ GDW1738-2012)
Divided in the requirement of the power supply zone criteria for classifying, choose A classes region, B classes region, C classes region, the class of D classes region four difference
Analyzed respectively.
Using a certain class power supply area as analysis object, using year as the cycle, count related to power supply reliability in certain region
Project investment total value, project is classified, rough segmentation is major repair project, technological transformation project, construction project, moves and change project, distribution
The major class of automation projects five, counts all kinds of investment amounts respectively, forms a capital project, i-th of investor in A classes region
Case sample is designated as：
Ai=[A1i,A2i,A3i,A4i,A5i] (1)
Wherein, i ∈ (1,2,3 ..., n), A1i、A2i、A3i、A4i、A5iA certain power supply area in A classes region is represented respectively
Major repair project in 1 year, technological transformation project, construction project, move and change project, the investment amount of power distribution automation project.
II, equipment alteration information is counted per year, and calculate power supply reliability caused by equipment alteration described in power distribution network and refer to
Target drop-out value
To capital project A in step 1i, according to its region and the year of analysis, the power supply is obtained from PMS2.0 systems
The equipment alteration information of power distribution network in the year of region, then by matching PMS2.0 systems and Electric Power Quality On-line Monitor System
" putting equipment in service time " field of middle phase same date and " construction power failure termination time " field, by equipment alteration information and power distribution network
Power supply reliability is connected, amount total amount when lacking delivery total amount caused by equipment alteration in statistical analysis year and having a power failure,
So as to obtain the data message that has a power failure caused by equipment alteration.
Using year as analytical cycle, for capital project Ai, because equipment alteration construct caused by frequency of power cut m, stop every time
Customer interrupted number when electric is zij, rijRefer to that what is had a power failure every time restores electricity the time, the always scarce delivery having a power failure every time is Mij。
Amount Z during total power failure caused by equipment alterationiFor：
In formula, and j ∈ (1,2, L, m).
Always lack delivery M caused by equipment alterationiFor：
m：The frequency of power cut caused by equipment alteration is constructed；zij：Customer interrupted number when having a power failure every time；rij：Finger stops every time
Electric restores electricity the time；j∈(1,2,…,m)；I ∈ (1,2,3 ..., n), which sample represented； Mij：Have a power failure every time
Always lack delivery.
III, according to the unusual fluctuation equipment, computing device construction investment totle drilling cost
Foundation《20KV and following distribution network engineering build budget compilation with calculating standard》、《State's net Power Material budget valency
Lattice》File is provided, based on the equipment alteration information counted in step 2, passes through " device type ", " equipment type of unusual fluctuation equipment
Number ", the Installed capital cost of computing device unusual fluctuation, and then calculate the distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost for obtaining analysis year.
Distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost is made up of installing engineering expense, original equipment cost, other fees and activity charge, i.e.,
1 grade is divided into installing engineering expense, original equipment cost, other fees and the major class of activity charge 4, per class be subdivided into 2 grades classification,
3 grades of classification, 4 grades of classification, are refined, general expenses content refers to table 1 with calculation formula step by step.
Table 1：Distribution network construction cost of investment general expenses content and calculation formula full edition
IV, setting deviation threshold, the difference for the estimated value for investing totle drilling cost according to project investment total value and equipment construction are less than
The characteristics of equal to the threshold value, going out equipment alteration information based on neural metwork training has the confession of correlation with project investment total value
Electric reliability negative benefit assessment models
Using in analysis year, by the difference between the calculated gross investment of equipment alteration and actual investment in deviation
Feature in threshold value, the difference between the overall cost of ownership of gained in all kinds of project investment amount of money in step I and step IV is existed
Capital project in threshold value, will by the data formation multiple samples of capital project of multiple regions, different year as a sample
Capital project be the investment amount of each intermediate item as input, power supply reliability negative benefit is as output, using neural network
Train the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models of Project Investment.
V, based on the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models, the negative effect of power supply reliability is determined according to Project Investment
Benefit
Estimation flow as shown in Figure 2 based on neutral net, by Project Investment to be assessed, i.e., the throwing of each intermediate item
Power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models obtained by capital amount input step IV, calculate the power supply reliability under different capital projects
Negative benefit.
A kind of power supply reliability negative benefit apparatus for evaluating of project investment, including：Data acquisition module, input module, number
According to processing module, reliability negative benefit evaluation module and output module；
Data acquisition module is used for the equipment alteration information for gathering power distribution network；
Input module is used for the data transfer of the data collecting module collected to data processing module；
Data processing module is used to be classified equipment alteration information, calculates the power supply reliability caused by equipment alteration
Negative benefit and distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost；
Reliability negative benefit evaluation module is using capital project as input, and power supply reliability negative benefit is used as output
Neural metwork training goes out the power supply reliability that there is the feature of correlation to set up capital project for equipment alteration information and capital project
Negative benefit assessment models；
Output module output by the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models assessment the pre- capital project of project can
By property negative benefit.
Capital project includes：Total investment.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can be provided as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, the application can be using the reality in terms of complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or combination software and hardware
Apply the form of example.Moreover, the application can be used in one or more computers for wherein including computer usable program code
The computer program production that usable storage medium is implemented on (including but is not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.)
The form of product.
The application is the flow with reference to method, equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram are described.It should be understood that can be by every first-class in computer program instructions implementation process figure and/or block diagram
Journey and/or the flow in square frame and flow chart and/or block diagram and/or the combination of square frame.These computer programs can be provided
The processor of all-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices is instructed to produce
A raw machine so that produced by the instruction of computer or the computing device of other programmable data processing devices for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one flow of flow chart or one square frame of multiple flows and/or block diagram or multiple square frames.
These computer program instructions, which may be alternatively stored in, can guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works so that the instruction being stored in the computer-readable memory, which is produced, to be included referring to
Make the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or one square frame of block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple square frames.
These computer program instructions can be also loaded into computer or other programmable data processing devices so that in meter
Series of operation steps is performed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to produce computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction performed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in individual square frame or multiple square frames.
Embodiments of the invention are these are only, are not intended to limit the invention, it is all in the spirit and principles in the present invention
Within, any modification, equivalent substitution and improvements done etc., be all contained in apply pending scope of the presently claimed invention it
It is interior.
Claims (11)
1. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of a kind of project investment, it is characterised in that methods described includes：
I, based on power supply area statistical item total investment per year；
II, statistics equipment alteration information, and calculate power supply reliability index caused by equipment alteration described in power distribution network per year
Drop-out value；
III, according to the unusual fluctuation equipment, computing device construction investment totle drilling cost；
IV, setting deviation threshold, the difference for the estimated value for investing totle drilling cost according to project investment total value and equipment construction are less than or equal to
The characteristics of threshold value, going out equipment alteration information and project investment total value based on neural metwork training has the power supply of correlation can
By property negative benefit assessment models；
V, based on the power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models, power supply reliability negative benefit is determined according to Project Investment.
2. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that matching unit
The putting equipment in service time field and construction power failure termination time field, meter of unusual action information and the phase same date in distribution network reliability
Calculate the drop-out value of the power supply reliability index of the step II.
3. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
II power supply reliability index includes：Amount lacks delivery with total during total power failure caused by equipment alteration.
4. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 3, it is characterised in that the equipment
Amount is calculated as follows during total power failure caused by unusual fluctuation：
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Always lack delivery M caused by the equipment alterationiIt is calculated as follows：
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In formula, m：The frequency of power cut caused by equipment alteration is constructed；zij：Customer interrupted number when having a power failure every time；rij：Finger stops every time
Electric restores electricity the time；j∈(1,2,…,m)；I ∈ (1,2,3 ..., n), which sample represented；Mij：What is had a power failure every time is total
Lack delivery.
5. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Project related to the power supply reliability I includes：Major repair project, technological transformation project, construction project, move and change project and distribution is automatic
Change project.
6. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
III distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost includes：Original equipment cost and replacing equipment construction take；
The original equipment cost is calculated by the device type and unit type of unusual fluctuation equipment and obtained.
7. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
IV large deviations threshold value is x%, wherein x≤10.
8. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
IV power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models include：Using the investment amount of the project related to power supply reliability as input,
Power supply reliability negative benefit builds power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models as output.
9. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
V capital project includes：Total investment.
10. a kind of power supply reliability negative benefit apparatus for evaluating of project investment, it is characterised in that including：It is data acquisition module, defeated
Enter module, data processing module, reliability negative benefit evaluation module and output module；
The data acquisition module is used for the equipment alteration information for gathering power distribution network；
The input module is used for the data transfer of the data collecting module collected to data processing module；
The data processing module is used to be classified the equipment alteration information, and power supply can caused by equipment alteration for calculating
By property negative benefit and distribution network construction investment totle drilling cost；
The reliability negative benefit evaluation module is using capital project as input, and power supply reliability negative benefit is used as output
Neural metwork training goes out the power supply reliability that there is the feature of correlation to set up capital project for equipment alteration information and capital project
Negative benefit assessment models；
The pre- capital project of project that output module output passes through power supply reliability negative benefit assessment models assessment can
By property negative benefit.
11. the power supply reliability negative benefit appraisal procedure of project investment as claimed in claim 10, it is characterised in that the throwing
Capital's case includes：Total investment.
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| CN112085459A (en) * | 2020-07-24 | 2020-12-15 | 华北电力大学 | Wind power project investment estimation method and device |
| CN112330121A (en) * | 2020-10-28 | 2021-02-05 | 广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局 | Power distribution network automation construction investment benefit evaluation method |
| CN112990584A (en) * | 2021-03-19 | 2021-06-18 | 山东大学 | Automatic production decision system and method based on deep reinforcement learning |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN109255553A (en) * | 2018-10-09 | 2019-01-22 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司 | A kind of grid company sale of electricity enterprise power supply reliability rewards and punishments method and system |
| CN112085459A (en) * | 2020-07-24 | 2020-12-15 | 华北电力大学 | Wind power project investment estimation method and device |
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