CN107179566A - The self study modification method and system of a kind of district weather forecasting - Google Patents
The self study modification method and system of a kind of district weather forecasting Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of self study modification method of district weather forecasting and system, this method includes：Receive the historical weather data corresponding to current district；Based on historical weather data, by intelligent algorithm, a weather prediction model is obtained；Current weather data are obtained, based on current weather data and weather prediction model, a weather forecasting data are generated；Obtain actual weather data；Based on the difference weather data between weather forecasting data and actual weather data, weather prediction model is corrected.With it, the accuracy of weather data prediction under conditions of low volume cost, can be increased substantially.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of artificial intelligence, more particularly to a kind of district weather forecasting self study modification method and
System.
Background technology
Traditional weather data prediction is to calculate weather data by solving atmospheric fluid mechanics and thermodynamical equilibrium equation group
, but this method amount of calculation is greatly, generally requires using many mainframe computers to complete, using such weather forecasting
Mode cost is higher, and certain area for being not suitable for regional such as certain city of small range is used.In addition, with the change of earth overall situation, day
Gas influence factor is changeable and complexity, in addition to natural cause, also human factor so that Changes in weather amplitude is larger, still
Using original weather prediction method, weather forecasting data accuracy reduction, for example, using wind power generation, it will influence nature
Cross-ventilation, the weather influence for small range area is larger, and original weather prediction method does not consider such newly-increased day
Gas changing factor, makes weather forecasting result inaccurate.
To sum up, the weather forecasting cost height and the low technology of data accuracy that prior art has city district area are asked
Topic.
The content of the invention
The embodiment of the present application provides the self study modification method and system of a kind of district weather forecasting, solves prior art
Present in city district area weather forecasting cost is high and the low technical problem of data accuracy.
On the one hand the embodiment of the present application provides a kind of self study modification method of district weather forecasting, applied to a district
The self study update the system of weather forecasting, methods described includes：Receive the historical weather data corresponding to current district；Based on institute
Historical weather data is stated, by intelligent algorithm, a weather prediction model is obtained；Current weather data are obtained, based on described
Current weather data and the weather prediction model, generate a weather forecasting data；Obtain actual weather data；Based on the day
Difference weather data between gas prediction data and the actual weather data, corrects the weather prediction model.
Optionally, before the historical weather data received corresponding to current district, methods described also includes：Obtain
District geodata；Based on the district geodata, send a historical weather data solicited message to historical weather data and take
Business device.
Optionally, before the historical weather data received corresponding to current district, methods described also includes：Display
One prompting user is loaded into the window of district historical weather data manually.
Optionally, the acquisition current weather data, be specially：Obtain current wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure,
Light intensity and rainfall.
Optionally, after the amendment weather prediction model, methods described also includes：Based on the current weather
Data, update the weather prediction model.
On the other hand, the embodiment of the present application also provides a kind of self study update the system of district weather forecasting, the system
Including：Receiving unit, for receiving the historical weather data corresponding to current district；Obtaining unit, for based on the history
Weather data, by intelligent algorithm, obtains a weather prediction model；Collecting unit, for obtaining current weather data；It is raw
Into unit, for based on the current weather data and the weather prediction model, generating a weather forecasting data；The collection
Unit, for obtaining actual weather data；Amending unit, for based on the weather forecasting data and the actual weather data
Between difference weather data, correct the weather prediction model.
Optionally, the system also includes：Acquiring unit, for obtaining district geodata；Transmitting element, for based on
The district geodata, sends a historical weather data solicited message to historical weather data server.
Optionally, the system also includes：Display unit, for showing that one points out user to be loaded into district weather history manually
The window of data.
Optionally, the collecting unit is specifically included：Wind speed and direction sensing module, temperature sensing module, humidity sensor mould
Block, light intensity sensing module and rainfall sensing module.
Optionally, the system also includes：Updating block, for based on the current weather data, updating the weather
Forecast model.
The one or more technical schemes provided in the embodiment of the present application, have at least the following technical effects or advantages：
First, the historical weather data according to corresponding to current district, obtains weather prediction model, is used as the following day in district
What gas was predicted uses instrument substantially, then, the current weather data obtained in real time is inputted in weather prediction model, drawing is used for
The weather forecasting data of future weather situation are characterized, next, after corresponding a period of time, the actual weather obtained in real time
The data corresponding true weather of preceding weather prediction data for it, by analyze and process weather forecasting data and actual weather data it
Between difference weather data, as amendment weather prediction model foundation, can the earth overall situation change under conditions of, pass through
Difference weather data instead releases newly-increased weather influence factor and its changing rule, can increase substantially the standard of weather data prediction
True property, solves the low technical problem of district Weather Of Area prediction data accuracy rate present in prior art, is district scope
Interior production and living provide authentic and valid future weather data, bring great convenience.
In addition, according to historical weather data and difference weather data, being obtained using the Integrated Algorithm in intelligent algorithm
Weather prediction model, without using many mainframe computers, solves district Weather Of Area present in prior art and predicts into
This high technical problem, under conditions of low volume cost, obtains accurate district Weather Of Area data.
Further, historical weather data at least two kinds different modes of information, including system active obtaining and use are obtained
Householder is dynamic to be imported, and different selection modes can be provided according to actual use demand, Consumer's Experience is improved.
Further, the weather data of acquisition includes wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure, light intensity and rainfall, by increasing
Plus weather parameters to consider weather influence factor in all directions, weather forecasting accuracy is further improved.
Further, after amendment weather prediction model, in addition to：Based on current weather data, weather forecasting is updated
Model, because weather prediction model is generated by intelligent algorithm by historical weather data, closer to current time
Historical weather data more have reference value, can more reflect future weather situation of change, can further lift weather forecasting
Learning ability, further improves weather forecasting result reliability.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the self study modification method of district weather forecasting in the embodiment of the application one；
Fig. 2 is the Organization Chart of the self study update the system of district weather forecasting in the embodiment of the application one.
Embodiment
The embodiment of the present application provides the self study modification method and system of a kind of district weather forecasting, solves prior art
Present in city district area weather forecasting cost is high and the low technical problem of data accuracy.
The problem of technical scheme of one embodiment of the invention is solves above-mentioned, general thought is as follows：
Receive the historical weather data corresponding to current district；Based on historical weather data, by intelligent algorithm, obtain
Obtain a weather prediction model；Current weather data are obtained, based on current weather data and weather prediction model, one weather of generation is pre-
Survey data；Obtain actual weather data；Based on the difference weather data between weather forecasting data and actual weather data, amendment
Weather prediction model.
First, the historical weather data according to corresponding to current district, obtains weather prediction model, is used as the following day in district
What gas was predicted uses instrument substantially, then, the current weather data obtained in real time is inputted in weather prediction model, drawing is used for
The weather forecasting data of future weather situation are characterized, next, after corresponding a period of time, the actual weather obtained in real time
The data corresponding true weather of preceding weather prediction data for it, by analyze and process weather forecasting data and actual weather data it
Between difference weather data, as amendment weather prediction model foundation, can the earth overall situation change under conditions of, pass through
Difference weather data instead releases newly-increased weather influence factor and its changing rule, can increase substantially the standard of weather data prediction
True property, solves the low technical problem of district Weather Of Area prediction data accuracy rate present in prior art, is district scope
Interior production and living provide authentic and valid future weather data, bring great convenience.
In addition, according to historical weather data and difference weather data, being obtained using the Integrated Algorithm in intelligent algorithm
Weather prediction model, without using many mainframe computers, solves district Weather Of Area present in prior art and predicts into
This high technical problem, under conditions of low volume cost, obtains accurate district Weather Of Area data.
In order to more fully understand above-mentioned technical proposal, below in conjunction with Figure of description and specific embodiment to upper
Technical scheme is stated to be described in detail.
The present embodiment provides a kind of self study modification method of district weather forecasting, applied to a district weather forecasting from
Learn update the system, the self study update the system of district weather forecasting is used for carrying out future weather prediction and amendment district weather
Prediction algorithm, the self study update the system of district weather forecasting can be integral type weather forecasting station, all component units of system
It is arranged at some area or the mster-control centre in some county, or the Weather prediction system of discrete, the day before yesterday is worked as in acquisition
It is arranged at different streets, different scenic spots, different buildings, different commercial squares, district weather is pre- the sensor distribution of destiny evidence
Other component units of the self study update the system of survey are then located at mster-control centre.
Wherein, integral type weather forecasting station is applied to the less district of Changes in weather amplitude in unit geographic areas, and divides
Vertical Weather prediction system is applied to the big district of weather otherness in unit geographic areas.
Fig. 1 is turned next to, the self study modification method of district weather forecasting in the embodiment of the present invention is retouched in detail
State.
Step 101：Receive the historical weather data corresponding to current district；
Step 102：Based on historical weather data, by intelligent algorithm, a weather prediction model is obtained；
Step 103：Current weather data are obtained, based on current weather data and weather prediction model, one weather of generation is pre-
Survey data；
Step 104：Obtain actual weather data；
Step 105：Based on the difference weather data between weather forecasting data and actual weather data, weather forecasting is corrected
Model.
Because discrete Weather prediction system is more more complicated than the processing procedure at integral type weather forecasting station, processing data amount is more
Greatly, can be direct under the premise of being described clearly to the self study amendment flow of the weather forecasting of discrete Weather prediction system
Derive the handling process at integral type weather forecasting station.So, it will be carried out specifically by taking discrete Weather prediction system as an example below
It is bright.
China some county, such as Haidian District, Beijing City, install district weather forecasting self study update the system it
Afterwards, system starts to perform step 101：Receive the historical weather data corresponding to current district.
Step 101 is in specific implementation process, for example：The self study update the system of the district weather forecasting in mster-control centre
In receiving unit, the communication module such as internet transmission unit, GPRS, WiFi, 3G, 4G, 5G receives Haidian District extremely
Few 2 years historical weather data, the historical weather data records Haidian District in the past in two years every the specific weather of four hours
Data.
Certainly, in another embodiment of the application, it can be set according to different weather forecasting precision and accuracy requirement
The historical weather data of different time length, for example：5 years, 1 year, half a year or three months, the specific of different time interval is set
Weather data, for example：Every two hours, every six hours or per every other hour, the application is not restricted.
Step 102：Based on historical weather data, by intelligent algorithm, a weather prediction model is obtained.
Continue along an embodiment is used, step 102 is in specific implementation process, for example：District Weather prediction system is received
To Haidian District in the past in two years after the specific weather data of four hours, for example adaptively patrolled based on intelligent algorithm
Network A LN is collected, passes through weather training module and generates weather prediction model.
Certainly, in another embodiment of the application, it would however also be possible to employ other artificial algorithms generate weather prediction model, example
Such as Boosting, Bootstrapped Aggregation (Bagging), AdaBoost, stack extensive (Stacked
Generalization, Blending), Gradient Propulsion machine (Gradient Boosting Machine, GBM), random forest
(Random Forest) etc., the application is not restricted.
Step 103：Current weather data are obtained, based on current weather data and weather prediction model, one weather of generation is pre-
Survey data.
Continue along an embodiment is used, step 103 is in specific implementation process, for example：The self study of district weather forecasting
The weather sensor being distributed in update the system on different streets obtains the weather data on street class in real time, by different streets
Corresponding different weather data are as input condition, by the calculation process of weather prediction model, export different streets corresponding
Weather forecasting data after four hours.
Certainly, in another embodiment of the application, weather forecasting data can be after six hours, after one day, after three days one
Weather forecasting data after week, the application is not restricted.
Step 104：Obtain actual weather data.
Continue along an embodiment is used, step 104 is in specific implementation process, for example：By step 103, district weather
The self study update the system of prediction generate four hours after weather forecasting data, after four hours, weather sensor is obtained
The current weather data obtained, i.e., actual weather data.
Step 105：Based on the difference weather data between weather forecasting data and actual weather data, weather forecasting is corrected
Model.
The self study update the system of district weather forecasting judges whether weather forecasting data and actual weather data match, and
Weather forecasting adjust instruction is generated according to matching degree, when weather prediction data and actual weather data are close, for example, matched
Degree value is up to 95%, performs weather forecasting fine setting instruction, weather prediction model is finely adjusted；And when weather prediction data and
When actual weather data differs greatly, such as matching degree value only has 50%, weather forecasting adjust instruction is performed, to weather forecasting
Model is adjusted.
Wherein, the correcting mode of weather prediction model and the generating algorithm of weather prediction model are related, below will be with adaptive
Answer and be described in detail exemplified by logical network ALN, similarly, those skilled in the art can push away according to the correcting mode of this algorithm
The correcting mode of other algorithms is exported, the application is not listed one by one.
Adaptive logic network A LN can include any number of linear between any number of independent input variables and variable
Logical relation, linear equation form is as follows：
Adaptive logic network A LN is by changing the weight w of system of linear equationsijTo produce desired result.For model
Generality, provide X0Represent the constant term of equation.In neural network model, X is input, and Y is the output of network, to X0's
Constraint information is construed as the amount of bias of neuron.
Make Lj=0, formula (1) defines straight line (n=1), a plane (n=2) or a hyperplane (n ＞ 2), because
This can obtain below equation group expression formula：
And the correcting mode of weather prediction model passes through the increase h in formula (2)ijModifying factor is used for linear adjustment equation group
Weight wijWeather forecasting data are made to be matched with actual weather data, specific equation group expression formula is：
H in formula (3)ijIt is related to difference weather data, when difference weather data is bigger, illustrate WijDeviate desired value larger,
hijOutput valve is bigger, hijReversely adjust Wij, make WijClose to desired value, and difference weather data is smaller, illustrates WijBias is small,
hijOutput valve is also smaller, hijFinely tune Wij, make WijInfinite approach desired value.
In order to provide different selection modes according to actual use demand, obtaining the method for historical weather data at least includes
Two kinds, one kind is obtained automatically for system, another actively to be imported for user.
The method that system obtains historical weather data automatically specifically includes step：Obtain district geodata；Based on district
Geodata, sends a historical weather data solicited message to historical weather data server.
In specific implementation process, for example：The self study update the system of district weather forecasting is obtained by GPS positioning device
Current geographical position is Haidian District, Beijing City, and the self study update the system of district weather forecasting, which actively sends one, to be used to obtain north
The solicited message of the Jing Shi Haidian District historical weather data of 2 years is to historical weather data server, historical weather data server
The historical weather data of Haidian District, Beijing City in cloud storage is sent back to the self study update the system of district weather forecasting.
The method that user actively imports historical weather data specifically includes step：Display one points out user to be loaded into district manually
The window of historical weather data.
In specific implementation process, for example：After Weather prediction system is installed successfully, the display screen in mster-control centre
User is pointed out in upper display one window for being loaded into district historical weather data manually, prompting user's current operation and next step in window
Operation information, facilitates user according to prompt message be loaded into the operation of district historical weather data, by user storage device example
Such as the historical weather data importing in mobile hard disk or USB flash disk, certainly, user can also be by the weather history number in cloud storage equipment
According to the self study update the system for being directed into district weather forecasting, the application is not restricted.
In order to consider weather influence factor in all directions, the acquisition improved in weather forecasting accuracy, step 103 is current
Weather data is specifically included：Obtain current wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure, light intensity and rainfall.
In order to further lifting weather forecasting deep learning ability, weather forecasting result reliability is further improved,
Also include step after step 105：Based on current weather data, weather prediction model is updated.
In specific implementation process, for example：With step 102 similarly, the self study update the system of district weather forecasting will
Current weather data are as input quantity, after being analyzed and processed by intelligent algorithm, and weather prediction model is upgraded more
Newly.
Another embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of self study update the system of district weather forecasting, for realize Fig. 1 and its
The self study modification method of district weather forecasting in specific embodiment, refer to Fig. 2, and Fig. 2 is the embodiment of the present application district weather
The Organization Chart of the self study update the system of prediction.
As shown in Fig. 2 a kind of self study update the system for district weather forecasting that the present embodiment is provided, system includes：Connect
Unit 201 is received, for receiving the historical weather data corresponding to current district；Obtaining unit 202, for based on weather history number
According to, pass through intelligent algorithm, obtain a weather prediction model；Collecting unit 204, for obtaining current weather data；Generation
Unit 203, for based on the current weather data and the weather prediction model, generating a weather forecasting data；Collection is single
Member 204, for obtaining actual weather data；Amending unit 205, for based between weather forecasting data and actual weather data
Difference weather data, correct weather prediction model.
Wherein, system also includes：Acquiring unit, for obtaining district geodata；Transmitting element, for based on district
Data are managed, a historical weather data solicited message are sent to historical weather data server.
Wherein, system also includes：Display unit, for showing that one points out user to be loaded into district historical weather data manually
Window.
Wherein, collecting unit 203 is specifically included：Wind speed and direction sensing module, temperature sensing module, humidity sensor module,
Light intensity sensing module and rainfall sensing module.
Wherein, system also includes updating block, for based on current weather data, updating weather prediction model.
Various change mode and instantiation in method in previous embodiment are equally applicable to the district of the present embodiment
The self study update the system of weather forecasting, passes through the detailed description of the foregoing self study modification method to district weather forecasting, sheet
Art personnel are apparent that the implementation of the self study update the system of district weather forecasting in the present embodiment, institute
With succinct for specification, it will not be described in detail herein.
The one or more technical schemes provided in the embodiment of the present application, have at least the following technical effects or advantages：
First, the historical weather data according to corresponding to current district, obtains weather prediction model, is used as the following day in district
What gas was predicted uses instrument substantially, then, the current weather data obtained in real time is inputted in weather prediction model, drawing is used for
The weather forecasting data of future weather situation are characterized, next, after corresponding a period of time, the actual weather obtained in real time
The data corresponding true weather of preceding weather prediction data for it, by analyze and process weather forecasting data and actual weather data it
Between difference weather data, as amendment weather prediction model foundation, can the earth overall situation change under conditions of, pass through
Difference weather data instead releases newly-increased weather influence factor and its changing rule, can increase substantially the standard of weather data prediction
True property, solves the low technical problem of district Weather Of Area prediction data accuracy rate present in prior art, is district scope
Interior production and living provide authentic and valid future weather data, bring great convenience.
In addition, according to historical weather data and difference weather data, being obtained using the Integrated Algorithm in intelligent algorithm
Weather prediction model, without using many mainframe computers, solves district Weather Of Area present in prior art and predicts into
This high technical problem, under conditions of low volume cost, obtains accurate district Weather Of Area data.
Further, historical weather data at least two kinds different modes of information, including system active obtaining and use are obtained
Householder is dynamic to be imported, and different selection modes can be provided according to actual use demand, Consumer's Experience is improved.
Further, the weather data of acquisition includes wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure, light intensity and rainfall, by increasing
Plus weather parameters to consider weather influence factor in all directions, weather forecasting accuracy is further improved.
Further, after amendment weather prediction model, in addition to：Based on current weather data, weather forecasting is updated
Model, because weather prediction model is generated by intelligent algorithm by historical weather data, closer to current time
Historical weather data more have reference value, can more reflect future weather situation of change, can further lift weather forecasting
Learning ability, further improves weather forecasting result reliability.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments of the invention can be provided as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, the present invention can be using the reality in terms of complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or combination software and hardware
Apply the form of example.Moreover, the present invention can be used in one or more computers for wherein including computer usable program code
The shape for the computer program product that usable storage medium is implemented on (including but is not limited to magnetic disk storage and optical memory etc.)
Formula.
The present invention is the flow with reference to method according to embodiments of the present invention, equipment (system) and computer program product
Figure and/or block diagram are described.It should be understood that can be by every first-class in computer program instructions implementation process figure and/or block diagram
Journey and/or the flow in square frame and flow chart and/or block diagram and/or the combination of square frame.These computer programs can be provided
The processor of all-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices is instructed to produce
A raw machine so that produced by the instruction of computer or the computing device of other programmable data processing devices for real
The device for the function of being specified in present one flow of flow chart or one square frame of multiple flows and/or block diagram or multiple square frames.
These computer program instructions, which may be alternatively stored in, can guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works so that the instruction being stored in the computer-readable memory, which is produced, to be included referring to
Make the manufacture of device, the command device realize in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or one square frame of block diagram or
The function of being specified in multiple square frames.
These computer program instructions can be also loaded into computer or other programmable data processing devices so that in meter
Series of operation steps is performed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to produce computer implemented processing, thus in computer or
The instruction performed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one flow of flow chart or multiple flows and/or block diagram one
The step of function of being specified in individual square frame or multiple square frames.
Obviously, those skilled in the art can carry out the essence of various changes and modification without departing from the present invention to the present invention
God and scope.So, if these modifications and variations of the present invention belong to the scope of the claims in the present invention and its equivalent technologies
Within, then the present invention is also intended to comprising including these changes and modification.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of self study modification method of district weather forecasting, applied to the self study update the system of a district weather forecasting,
Characterized in that, methods described includes：
Receive the historical weather data corresponding to current district；
Based on the historical weather data, by intelligent algorithm, a weather prediction model is obtained；
Current weather data are obtained, based on the current weather data and the weather prediction model, a weather forecasting number are generated
According to；
Obtain actual weather data；
Based on the difference weather data between the weather forecasting data and the actual weather data, the weather forecasting is corrected
Model.
2. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that in the historical weather data received corresponding to current district
Before, methods described also includes：
Obtain district geodata；
Based on the district geodata, a historical weather data solicited message is sent to historical weather data server.
3. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that in the historical weather data received corresponding to current district
Before, methods described also includes：
The window that user is loaded into district historical weather data manually is pointed out in display one.
4. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that the acquisition current weather data, is specially：Obtain currently
Wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure, light intensity and rainfall.
5. the method as described in claim 1, it is characterised in that after the amendment weather prediction model, the side
Method also includes：
Based on the current weather data, the weather prediction model is updated.
6. a kind of self study update the system of district weather forecasting, it is characterised in that the system includes：
Receiving unit, for receiving the historical weather data corresponding to current district；
Obtaining unit, for based on the historical weather data, by intelligent algorithm, obtains a weather prediction model；
Collecting unit, for obtaining current weather data；
Generation unit, for based on the current weather data and the weather prediction model, generating a weather forecasting data；
The collecting unit, for obtaining actual weather data；
Amending unit, for based on the difference weather data between the weather forecasting data and the actual weather data, repairing
Just described weather prediction model.
7. system as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the system also includes：
Acquiring unit, for obtaining district geodata；
Transmitting element, for based on the district geodata, sending a historical weather data solicited message to weather history number
According to server.
8. system as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the system also includes：
Display unit, for showing that one points out user the window for being loaded into district historical weather data manually.
9. system as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the collecting unit is specifically included：Wind speed and direction sensing module,
Temperature sensing module, humidity sensor module, light intensity sensing module and rainfall sensing module.
10. system as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the system also includes：
Updating block, for based on the current weather data, updating the weather prediction model.
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| CN111929748A (en) * | 2020-09-17 | 2020-11-13 | 南京浦蓝大气环境研究院有限公司 | Meteorological element forecasting method and system |
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