CN107145987A - A kind of monitoring polymer drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well - Google Patents
A kind of monitoring polymer drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well Download PDFInfo
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- CN107145987A CN107145987A CN201710396186.0A CN201710396186A CN107145987A CN 107145987 A CN107145987 A CN 107145987A CN 201710396186 A CN201710396186 A CN 201710396186A CN 107145987 A CN107145987 A CN 107145987A
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Abstract
The invention discloses the method for early warning that a kind of monitoring polymer drives fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, comprise the following steps：1) alert source is found, dynamic static data and monitoring materials based on subject oil field find the influence factor and specific manifestation feature that fluid-channeling channel is formed in reservoir；2) alert million are analyzed, determines to influence the Dominated Factors of crossflow of polymer flooding using Grey Incidence Analysis, constitutes crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system；3) sentence knowledge police's degree, set up to gather using fuzzy synthetic evaluation model and alter Alarm Assessment model；4) predict police degree, step 2) in determination crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system be made up of Static State Index and dynamic indicator two parts, by being predicted to dynamic indicator, the development trend to later stage fluid-channeling channel is predicted.The method for early warning of the present invention can provide theoretical direction for the implementation of polymer flooding development phase Optimized Adjustment Measures, so as to improve polymer flooding efficiency, mining-employed reserves is improved to greatest extent.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the method for early warning that a kind of monitoring polymer drives fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, belong to oil gas field and open
Dynamic parameter monitoring technical field during hair.
Background technology
Oil and gas reservoir in forming process by depositional environment, diagenesis and tectonism due to being influenceed, its space point
All there is anisotropism in cloth, it is influence underground oil and gas water transport with built-in attribute (such as porosity, permeability and hole mechanism)
The key factor of the dynamic and rate of oil and gas recovery.And by waterflooding extraction for many years, due to injecting the long-term erosion of water, cause trickle
Grain migration and formation sand production, form current fluid-channeling channel between injection well and producing well, exacerbate the anisotropism on stratum.Alter
After circulation road is formed, injection water is advanced by leaps and bounds readily along fluid-channeling channel occurs channelling phenomenon, and middle less permeable layer but absorbs water seldom, indulges
It is difficult to improve to sweep efficiency, inefficient is circulated injection water in the earth formation, has a strong impact on water flooding effectiveness and oil field development
Overall efficiency.For polymer flooding develop oil reservoir there is also identical channelling problem, cause indivedual oil wells to see poly-, output too early
Polymer residual is high in liquid, not only have impact on the development effectiveness of polymer flooding but also had added the intractability of production fluid.
The developmental state for grasping fluid-channeling channel in reservoir be formulate the steady oil control water measure scheme of profile control, water blockoff etc. it is important according to
According to.Existing fluid-channeling channel sentences knowledge method, mainly divides production performance observation, well testing identification, tracer monitoring, well-log information identification
Etc. several classes, these methods are required for substantial amounts of test data, obtain cycle length, cost height, and influence oil field is produced, and can only be right
One time point carries out sentencing knowledge, it is impossible to carry out early warning to Later development trend.
The content of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, developed it is an object of the invention to provide fluid-channeling channel between a kind of monitoring polymer drive injection-production well
Method for early warning, this method both can be carried out sentencing knowledge to the development position and degree of fluid-channeling channel at this stage, and the later stage can also be altered
The developmental state of circulation road is predicted, and is that the optimization in the development process of polymer flooding oil field and adjustment provide theoretical direction, from
And polymer displacement of reservoir oil efficiency is improved, mining-employed reserves is improved to greatest extent.
To achieve the above object, the present invention uses following technical scheme：Channelling is led between a kind of monitoring polymer drives injection-production well
The method for early warning of road development, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
1) alert source is found
Dynamic static data and monitoring materials based on subject oil field, every ginseng of statistical analysis oil well, injection well and well group
Numerical value, finds the influence factor and specific manifestation feature that fluid-channeling channel is formed in reservoir；
2) alert million are analyzed
For the step 1) in the influence factor and each parameter of specific manifestation feature of the fluid-channeling channel that count, application
Grey Incidence Analysis determines the Dominated Factors of influence crossflow of polymer flooding, and crossflow of polymer flooding early warning is constituted by Dominated Factors
Index system；
3) knowledge police's degree is sentenced
Set up to gather using fuzzy synthetic evaluation model and alter Alarm Assessment model；
4) police's degree is predicted
Step 2) in determine crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system be made up of Static State Index and dynamic indicator two parts,
Wherein, dynamic indicator can change with production process, therefore by being predicted to dynamic indicator, so as to later stage channelling
The development trend of passage is predicted.
The step 1) in formation fluid-channeling channel influence factor and specific manifestation feature be subject oil field polymerization
Thing drives reservoir static parameter and characteristic of production dynamic parameter in region, and it includes：Permeability grade, cumulative injection, accumulation production
Liquid measure, zero dimension see the poly- time, produce poly- concentration, produce poly- change rate of concentration, fluid productivity index rate of change, apparent water injectivity index rate of change,
Note adopts connective, crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor；
Wherein, apparent water injectivity index rate of change refers to the ratio of apparent water injectivity index at initial stage and current apparent water injectivity index；
Crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor is used for the power for characterizing crossflow of polymer flooding, and symbol represents that it calculates public using M
Formula is as follows：
M=Qp×Vp×ω (1)
In formula：QpFor the poly- amount of zero dimension production, gather amount equal to oil well production divided by split the poly- amount of dispensing；VpFor polymer tempo of penetration,
Equal to well spacing divided by see the poly- time；ω is the factor that takes effect, and when seeing that the poly- time is earlier than responding time, ω=responding time/(takes effect
When m- see the poly- time), when seeing that the poly- time is equal to responding time, ω=1, when seeing that the poly- time is later than responding time, ω=
(see it is poly- when m- responding time)/see the poly- time.
The step 2) in set up crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system detailed process it is as follows：
1. using step 1) the crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor that calculates is used as reference sequences；
2. using step 1) in remaining dynamic and static state parameters be used as comparative sequences；
3. the degree of association of comparative sequences and reference sequences is calculated using Grey Incidence Analysis, the degree of association is bigger, explanation
Comparative sequences are more consistent with the situation that reference sequences change, and do normalized to the degree of association on this basis, comparative sequences with
The degree of association of reference sequences then can form crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system for more than 0.7 as Dominated Factors.
The step 3) in set up the poly- detailed process for altering Alarm Assessment model as follows：
1. the exemplary value simulation model of different basic permeabilities is set up according to the relevant parameter of subject oil field；
2. the exemplary value simulation model that application is set up, simulates drive liquor capacity condition in different injection of polymer respectively
Under, the variation tendency of the moisture content fall of polymer flooding under different permeability grades obtains step 2) polymerization that determines
Thing drives the boundary value of each Dominated Factors in channelling pre-warning indexes system：
According in exemplary value simulation model, the change of the moisture content fall of permeability grade and polymer flooding becomes
Gesture, using permeability grade as transverse axis, moisture content fall is the longitudinal axis, and the polymer flooding set up under different permeability grades contains
Water rate fall change curve, corresponding permeability grade is when the moisture content fall for defining polymer flooding is begun to decline
The poly- boundary for altering observation, when moisture content fall is more than 1.2%, corresponding permeability grade is the poly- boundary for altering development；Root
According to the different poly- boundary definitions for altering degree, each Dominated Factors under the conditions of different injection of polymer drive liquor capacity are obtained
Boundary value；
3. be directed to each Dominated Factors parameter value application control quantity method in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system, i.e., it is single
Dominated Factors parameter value changes according to+10% and -10%, and applying equation (1) calculates corresponding crossflow factor, different Dominated Factors pair
The influence degree of polymer channelling is different, and the weight of each index symbol A is drawn by sensitivity analysis and normalizediTable
Show：
In formula：|ΔMi| change for single index parameter value after+10% and -10%, it is exhausted that corresponding crossflow factor changes
To value；N is Dominated Factors number in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system；I is crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system
Any Dominated Factors；
4. last boundary value and weight by each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-alarming system of determination substitutes into mould
Paste in Model for Comprehensive, set up it is poly- alters Alarm Assessment model, and then the poly- of each well can be altered development, poly- alter observation, nothing and gather
Situation about altering is judged respectively, is drawn to gather on well location map and is altered identifying result figure, the result figure intuitively can be found out on well location map
The poly- distribution altered.
4. the poly- specific calculating process for altering Alarm Assessment model of middle foundation is as follows for the step：
I) Comment gathers are determined, it is poly- alter in Early-warning Model it is general Comment gathers are set to poly- alter development, poly- alter observation and without gathering
Three ranks are altered, Comment gathers are designated as：
V={ v1,v2,v3} (3)
In formula：V is Comment gathers；v1Represent oil well and alter developmental condition in poly-；v2Represent oil well and alter observation state in poly-；
v3Represent oil well and poly- alter does not occur；
Ii the set of factors of influence Comment gathers, i.e. step 2) are determined) the middle crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system determined, because
Element collection is designated as：
U={ u1,u2,…,un} (4)
In formula：U representation polymers drive channelling pre-warning indexes system；u1,u2,…,unCorrespond crossflow of polymer flooding early warning
Each Dominated Factors in index system；N is master control factor number；
Iii the boundary value of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system) 2. determined according to step, and
After being handled by normalization method, Evaluations matrix is obtained：
In formula, ri=(ri1,ri2,ri3) it is the corresponding Evaluations matrix of any Dominated Factors；I is any Dominated Factors, i=
1,2 ... ..., n；
Iv the weight of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system) 3. determined according to step, sets up
Weight sets, weight sets is designated as：
A={ a1,a2,…,an} (6)
In formula：A represents weight sets；aiFor the weight of any index, i=1,2 ... ..., n；
V) the synthesis computing of application blurring mapping, obtains Comprehensive Evaluation result：
B=A × R={ b1,b2,b3} (7)
In formula：B is Comprehensive Evaluation result；b1Correspond to v in Comment gathers1Evaluation result；b2Correspond to the v in Comment gathers2
Evaluation result；b3Correspond to v in Comment gathers3Evaluation result；
In Comprehensive Evaluation result, b1、b2Or b3Which numerical value is big, then oil well, which is in, corresponding in Comment gathers poly- alters state
Under, so as to be decision making to poly- situation about altering.
The step 4) in the detailed process that is predicted to the development trend of later stage fluid-channeling channel it is as follows：
1. method for numerical simulation, support vector machine method and one or more mutually knots in gray prediction method are chosen first
Close, to step 2) in the numerical value at dynamic indicator T+n time points in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system be predicted；
2. will predict that obtained numerical value substitutes into step 3) set up it is poly- alter in Alarm Assessment model, obtain T+n time points
It is poly- to alter developmental state, draw to gather on well location map and alter the figure that predicts the outcome, the result figure can intuitively find out the poly- developmental state altered.
The present invention uses above technical scheme, and it has the following advantages that：The method for early warning of the present invention can be to polymer flooding mistake
Channelling situation in journey is monitored in real time, and to the later stage it is poly- alter development trend and be predicted, the strong operability of this method, prediction
Precision is high, and result of calculation accurately and reliably, can provide theoretical direction for the implementation of polymer flooding development phase Optimized Adjustment Measures.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the overall flow schematic diagram of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is J oilfield polymer floodings region well location distribution map；
Fig. 3 is the moisture content fall change curve of the polymer flooding under different permeability grades；
Fig. 4, which is that J oilfield injections are poly- after 4 years, alters identifying result；
Fig. 5, which is that J oilfield injections are poly- after 5 years half, alters early warning result；
Fig. 6, which is that J oilfield injections are poly- after 5 years half, alters actual identifying result.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
The invention provides the method for early warning that a kind of monitoring polymer drives fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, it includes following
Step：
1) alert source is found
Dynamic static data and monitoring materials based on subject oil field, every ginseng of statistical analysis oil well, injection well and well group
Numerical value, finds the influence factor and specific manifestation feature that fluid-channeling channel is formed in reservoir.
Reservoir static parameter and characteristic of production dynamic parameter in the polymer flooding region of subject oil field are obtained, it includes：Ooze
Saturating rate is differential, cumulative injection, cumulative liquid production, zero dimension are shown in the poly- time, produces poly- concentration, produce poly- change rate of concentration, adopt liquid refers to
Number rate of change, apparent water injectivity index rate of change, note adopt connective, crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor.
Wherein, apparent water injectivity index rate of change refers to the ratio of apparent water injectivity index at initial stage and current apparent water injectivity index.
Crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor is used for the power for characterizing crossflow of polymer flooding, and symbol represents that it calculates public using M
Formula is as follows：
M=Qp×Vp×ω (1)
In formula：QpFor the poly- amount of zero dimension production, gather amount equal to oil well production divided by split the poly- amount of dispensing；VpFor polymer tempo of penetration,
Equal to well spacing divided by see the poly- time；ω is the factor that takes effect, and when seeing that the poly- time is earlier than responding time, ω=responding time/(takes effect
When m- see the poly- time), when seeing that the poly- time is equal to responding time, ω=1, when seeing that the poly- time is later than responding time, ω=
(see it is poly- when m- responding time)/see the poly- time.
2) alert million are analyzed
For the step 1) in the influence factor and each parameter of specific manifestation feature of the fluid-channeling channel that count, application
Grey Incidence Analysis determines the Dominated Factors of influence crossflow of polymer flooding, and crossflow of polymer flooding early warning is constituted by Dominated Factors
Index system.
The detailed process for setting up crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system is as follows：
1. using step 1) the crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor that calculates is used as reference sequences；
2. using step 1) in remaining dynamic and static state parameters be used as comparative sequences；
3. the degree of association of comparative sequences and reference sequences is calculated using Grey Incidence Analysis, the degree of association is bigger, explanation
Comparative sequences are more consistent with the situation that reference sequences change, and do normalized to the degree of association on this basis, it is considered that ratio
Compared with sequence and the degree of association of reference sequences then corresponding tune can also be done for more than 0.7 according to actual conditions as Dominated Factors
It is whole, form crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system.
3) knowledge police's degree is sentenced
Using fuzzy synthetic evaluation model set up it is poly- alter Alarm Assessment model, can alter Alarm Assessment model according to poly- and quantitatively comment
The fluid-channeling channel formed during valency polymer flooding, detailed process is as follows：
1. exemplary value simulation model is set up according to the relevant parameter of subject oil field.Generally, for an actual oil
Field, Permeability Distribution scope is wider, in different permeability ranges, judges that the standard of fluid-channeling channel is different, therefore can be with
According to different permeability ranges, the exemplary value simulation model of different basic permeabilities is set up；
2. the exemplary value simulation model that application is set up, simulates drive liquor capacity condition in different injection of polymer respectively
Under, the variation tendency of the moisture content fall of polymer flooding under different permeability grades obtains step 2) in each master control
The boundary value of factor：
According in exemplary value simulation model, the change of the moisture content fall of permeability grade and polymer flooding becomes
Gesture, using permeability grade as transverse axis, moisture content fall is the longitudinal axis, and the polymer flooding set up under different permeability grades contains
Water rate fall change curve, corresponding permeability grade is when the moisture content fall for defining polymer flooding is begun to decline
The poly- boundary for altering observation, corresponding permeability grade is during moisture content fall rapid decrease (decrease speed is more than 1.2%)
The poly- boundary for altering development；According to the different poly- boundary definitions for altering degree, obtain driving liquor capacity condition in different injection of polymer
Lower correspondence step 2) in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system each Dominated Factors boundary value；
3. be directed to the parameter value application control quantity method of each Dominated Factors in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system, i.e., it is single
One Dominated Factors parameter value changes according to+10% and -10%, and applying equation (1) calculates corresponding crossflow factor, different Dominated Factors
Influence degree to polymer channelling is different, and the weight of each index symbol A is drawn by sensitivity analysis and normalizedi
Represent：
In formula：|ΔMi| change for single index parameter value after+10% and -10%, it is exhausted that corresponding crossflow factor changes
To value；N is Dominated Factors number in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system；I is crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system
Any Dominated Factors；
4. finally by the boundary value and each Dominated Factors of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-alarming system of determination
Weight substitute into fuzzy synthetic evaluation model, set up it is poly- alters Alarm Assessment model, and then the poly- of each well can be altered development, gathered
Alter observation, judged respectively without poly- situation about altering, draw to gather on well location map and alter identifying result figure, the result figure can intuitively be seen
Go out the distribution for gathering on well location map and altering, specific calculation procedure is as follows：
First, Comment gathers are determined, it is poly- alter in Early-warning Model it is general Comment gathers are set to poly- alter development, poly- alter and observe and nothing
Poly- to alter three ranks, Comment gathers can be designated as：
V={ v1,v2,v3} (3)
In formula：V is Comment gathers；v1Represent oil well and alter developmental condition in poly-；v2Represent oil well and alter observation state in poly-；
v3Represent oil well and poly- alter does not occur；
Secondly, it is determined that the set of factors of influence Comment gathers, i.e. step 2) the middle crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system determined,
Set of factors can be designated as：
U={ u1,u2,…,un} (4)
In formula；U representation polymers drive channelling pre-warning indexes system；u1,u2,…,unCorrespond crossflow of polymer flooding early warning
Each Dominated Factors in index system；N is master control factor number；
The boundary value of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system 2. determined according to step, and pass through
After normalization method processing, Evaluations matrix is obtained：
In formula, ri=(ri1,ri2,ri3) it is the corresponding Evaluations matrix of any Dominated Factors；I is any Dominated Factors, i=
1,2 ... ..., n；
The weight of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system 3. determined according to step, sets up weight
Collection, weight sets can be designated as：
A={ a1,a2,…,anIn (6) formula, A represents weight sets；aiFor any master control
The weight of factor, i=1,2 ... ..., n；
Finally, using the synthesis computing of blurring mapping, Comprehensive Evaluation result can be obtained：
B=A × R={ b1,b2,b3} (7)
In formula：B is Comprehensive Evaluation result；b1Correspond to v in Comment gathers1Evaluation result；b2Correspond to the v in Comment gathers2
Evaluation result；b3Correspond to v in Comment gathers3Evaluation result；
In Comprehensive Evaluation result, b1、b2Or b3Which numerical value is big, then oil well, which is in, corresponding in Comment gathers poly- alters state
Under, so as to be decision making to poly- situation about altering.
4) police's degree is predicted
Step 2) in determine crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system be made up of Static State Index and dynamic indicator two parts,
Wherein, dynamic indicator can change with production process, therefore by being predicted to dynamic indicator, so as to later stage channelling
The development trend of passage is predicted, and detailed process is as follows：
1. method for numerical simulation, support vector machine method and one or more mutually knots in gray prediction method are chosen first
Close, the numerical value at the dynamic indicator T+n time points in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system is predicted；
2. will predict that obtained numerical value substitutes into step 3) set up it is poly- alter in Alarm Assessment model, obtain T+n time points
It is poly- to alter developmental state, draw to gather on well location map and alter the figure that predicts the outcome, the result figure can intuitively find out the poly- developmental state altered.
Embodiment：
By taking the method for early warning that fluid-channeling channel between the J oilfield polymer flooding injection-production wells of the Bohai Sea is developed as an example, the injection region domain in J oil fields
Well location map (as shown in Figure 2), totally 28 mouthfuls of wells in region, wherein 8 mouthfuls of injection wells, 20 mouthfuls of producing wells.Shown in comprising the following steps that：
1) the characteristic of production dynamic parameter after the static parameter of statistics injection region domain reservoir and 4 years notes of implementation are poly-, calculates oil
The channelling intensity factor of well, analysis channelling intensity factor and reservoir static parameter and the relation of every characteristic of production dynamic parameter,
Because static parameter and characteristic of production dynamic parameter are more, only exposition analysis result below.
The J oil fields part injection well characteristic of production dynamic parametric statistics result of table 1
| Injection well | Cumulative injection (all places) | Apparent water injectivity index rate of change (decimal) |
| J9 | 154.19 | 0.58 |
| J7 | 221.45 | 0.31 |
| J5 | 92.64 | 0.75 |
| J3 | 154.82 | 0.52 |
| J1 | 206.22 | 0.42 |
In the case where reservoir property does not change, the injectivity index change of injection well is steady, after fluid-channeling channel is formed,
Bottom pressure declines when daily water-injection rate is constant, apparent water injectivity index increase.Suction is regarded by contrasting current apparent water injectivity index relative infancy
The change of aqua index gathers the possibility for altering generation to track, and gathers after altering, and apparent water injectivity index rate of change is less than 1, and it is worth smaller explanation
Channelling is more severe.The result counted from table 1 can be seen that the bigger well of cumulative injection, and apparent water injectivity index rate of change is smaller, says
The high place of bright water drive multiple, washes away more serious, also easier formation fluid-channeling channel, water absorbing capacity increase.
Table 2 is the injection water retaining in reservoir and the statistical result of connected ratio for noting poly- initial stage and note part well group after poly- 4 years.
The J oil fields part well group characteristic of production dynamic parametric statistics result of table 2
| Well group | Initial stage injection water retaining in reservoir | Injection water retaining in reservoir after 4 years | Initial stage connected ratio | Connected ratio after 4 years |
| J1 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 0.76 |
| J3 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| J5 | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| J7 | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| J9 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
Can be seen that from the statistical result of table 2 it is poly- by 4 years notes, it is straight due to great amount of injection water after fluid-channeling channel is formed
Practice midwifery out, cause the reduction of stratum injection water retaining in reservoir, while fluid-channeling channel directly connects oil-water well, it is very strong that note adopts relevance,
Note adopts connectedness clearly, with obvious channelling feature.
Table 3 is the characteristic of production dynamic parametric statistics result of J oil fields part producing well.
The characteristic of production dynamic parametric statistics result of the J oil fields part producing well of table 3
| Pound sign | Channelling intensity factor | Moisture content (%) | Currently produce poly- concentration (mg/L) |
| J8 | 1.49 | 70.55 | 221.8 |
| J10 | 1.00 | 65.95 | 232.8 |
| J6 | 0.89 | 66.99 | 180.3 |
| J4 | 0.42 | 46.22 | 103.4 |
| J12 | 1.66 | 82.51 | 602.4 |
| J14 | 1.78 | 86.72 | 600.4 |
| J19 | 1.81 | 82.43 | 498.4 |
| J24 | 2.83 | 72.81 | 484.7 |
| J27 | 0.23 | 65.89 | 169.6 |
| J16 | 0.87 | 74.99 | 203.8 |
| J23 | 2.33 | 70.94 | 551.8 |
| J18 | 1.56 | 82.14 | 277.0 |
| J22 | 0.52 | 50.78 | 202.3 |
| J26 | 1.14 | 56.44 | 516.7 |
| J28 | 0.46 | 69.05 | 123.0 |
| J2 | 0.81 | 40.82 | 247.5 |
| J21 | 0.68 | 83.02 | 384.1 |
| J25 | 0.13 | 20.48 | 132.6 |
The moisture content of the higher well of crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor is can be seen that from the statistical result of table 3 and production gathers dense
Degree is all higher, with obvious channelling feature, illustrates the important ginseng that the crossflow of polymer flooding factor can gather situation of altering as characterizing
Number.
2) the associating to reservoir static parameter and dynamic production target and channelling intensity factor using gray relative analysis method
Degree is calculated, and show that it is permeability grade, cumulative injection, accumulation production liquid to be compared close index with channelling intensity factor
Amount, zero dimension are shown in the poly- time, produce poly- concentration, fluid productivity index rate of change, apparent water injectivity index rate of change, the poly- change rate of concentration of production and note
Adopt connectedness.
3) by the statistical analysis to J oil fields permeability data, permeability is divided into 250 × 10-3μm2、500×10-3μ
m2、1000×10-3μm2Three ranks.It is 250 × 10 to establish basic permeability-3μm2、500×10-3μm2、1000×10-3μ
m2Exemplary value simulation model, poly- under the conditions of 1,2,5,8,10,12,15 of permeability grade is simulated respectively and alters situation, is obtained
To the moisture content fall (as shown in Figure 3) of the polymer flooding under different permeability grades.
From figure 3, it can be seen that it is same it is differential under, with the rise of basic permeability, the precipitation range of polymer is not
It is disconnected to decline；For same foundation permeability, with differential increase, the precipitation range of polymer first rises to be declined afterwards.According to containing
Water fall, alters boundary and is demarcated to poly-, moisture content fall begin to decline it is differential alter the area of observation coverage to be poly-, it is aqueous
The differential of rate fall rapid decrease alters serious area to be poly-, and the boundary of specific each index is shown in Table 4.
The channelling index boundary demarcation of the different differential models of table 4
On the basis of exemplary value simulation model, the poly- weight for altering index have studied by control variate method.Single
Under desired value situation of change, i.e., according to+10% and -10% value for changing each parameter, the variable quantity of channelling intensity factor is calculated, is obtained
Go out different indexs to the poly- influence degree altered, so as to show that the weight of each index is shown in Table 5.
The poly- weight for altering evaluation index of table 5
| Sequence number | Index | Weight |
| 1 | Permeability grade | 0.19 |
| 2 | Cumulative injection | 0.08 |
| 3 | Cumulative liquid production | 0.08 |
| 4 | Produce poly- concentration | 0.06 |
| 5 | Apparent water injectivity index rate of change | 0.15 |
| 6 | Zero dimension is shown in the poly- time | 0.14 |
| 7 | Liquid production index rate of change | 0.05 |
| 8 | Produce poly- change rate of concentration | 0.17 |
| 9 | Note adopts connectedness | 0.08 |
Poly- alter is set up using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and sentences knowledge model, and the channelling situation to each well in region is sentenced
Know, identifying result is as shown in Figure 4.
4) the dynamic production target for obtaining grey forecasting model and supporting vector machine model prediction carries out arithmetic average, really
Numerical value of the fixed items evaluation index after noting poly- 5 years half, substitutes into poly- alter by obtained every evaluation index predicted value and sentences knowledge model,
So as to predict that obtain after 5 years half poly- alters developmental state, predict the outcome as shown in Figure 5.By the reality of every evaluation index after 5 years half
Actual value substitutes into poly- alter and sentences knowledge model, calculates obtain after 5 years half poly- and alters actual developmental state, result of calculation is as shown in Figure 6.
Contrasted and found by Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, with the extension for poly- time of showwing loving care for, channelling region has expanded, the poly- well for altering development area
Increase to 8 mouthfuls of poly- wells for altering observation area by 6 mouthfuls increases to 11 mouthfuls by 4 mouthfuls.Contrasted and found by Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 figures, early warning is tied with actual
There are 28 mouthfuls of producing wells in really different a total of 4 mouthfuls of wells, the whole district, and precision of prediction is 86%.
The present invention is only illustrated with above-described embodiment, and the choosing method of each step and each parameter is all to have become
Change, it is all according to the principle of the invention separate step or individual parameters value to be carried out on the basis of technical solution of the present invention
Improve and equivalents, should not exclude outside protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of monitoring polymer drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
1) alert source is found
Dynamic static data and monitoring materials based on subject oil field, the parameters value of statistical analysis oil well, injection well and well group,
Find the influence factor and specific manifestation feature that fluid-channeling channel is formed in reservoir；
2) alert million are analyzed
For the step 1) in the influence factor and each parameter of specific manifestation feature of the fluid-channeling channel that count, using grey
Association analysis method determines the Dominated Factors of influence crossflow of polymer flooding, and crossflow of polymer flooding warning index is constituted by Dominated Factors
System；
3) knowledge police's degree is sentenced
Set up to gather using fuzzy synthetic evaluation model and alter Alarm Assessment model；
4) police's degree is predicted
Step 2) in determine crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system be made up of Static State Index and dynamic indicator two parts, its
In, dynamic indicator can change with production process, therefore by being predicted to dynamic indicator, so that logical to later stage channelling
The development trend in road is predicted.
2. a kind of monitoring polymer as claimed in claim 1 drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, its feature
Be, the step 1) in formation fluid-channeling channel influence factor and specific manifestation feature be subject oil field polymer flooding
Reservoir static parameter and characteristic of production dynamic parameter in region, it includes：Permeability grade, cumulative injection, cumulative liquid production,
Zero dimension is shown in the poly- time, produces poly- concentration, produces poly- change rate of concentration, fluid productivity index rate of change, apparent water injectivity index rate of change, the note company of adopting
The general character, crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor；
Wherein, apparent water injectivity index rate of change refers to the ratio of apparent water injectivity index at initial stage and current apparent water injectivity index；
Crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor is used for the power for characterizing crossflow of polymer flooding, and symbol represents that its calculation formula is such as using M
Under：
M=Qp×Vp×ω (1)
In formula：QpFor the poly- amount of zero dimension production, gather amount equal to oil well production divided by split the poly- amount of dispensing；VpFor polymer tempo of penetration, it is equal to
Well spacing divided by see the poly- time；ω is the factor that takes effect, when seeing that the poly- time is earlier than responding time, ω=responding time/(when taking effect
It is m- to see the poly- time), when seeing that the poly- time is equal to responding time, ω=1, when seeing that the poly- time is later than responding time, ω=(see
M- responding time when poly-)/see the poly- time.
3. a kind of monitoring polymer as claimed in claim 2 drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, its feature
Be, the step 2) in set up crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system detailed process it is as follows：
1. using step 1) the crossflow of polymer flooding intensity factor that calculates is used as reference sequences；
2. using step 1) in remaining dynamic and static state parameters be used as comparative sequences；
3. the degree of association of comparative sequences and reference sequences is calculated using Grey Incidence Analysis, the degree of association is bigger, and explanation compares
Sequence is more consistent with the situation that reference sequences change, and does normalized, comparative sequences and reference to the degree of association on this basis
The degree of association of sequence then can form crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system for more than 0.7 as Dominated Factors.
4. a kind of monitoring polymer as claimed in claim 3 drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, its feature
Be, the step 3) in set up the poly- detailed process for altering Alarm Assessment model as follows：
1. the exemplary value simulation model of different basic permeabilities is set up according to the relevant parameter of subject oil field；
2. the exemplary value simulation model that application is set up, simulates under the conditions of different injection of polymer drive liquor capacity, gathers respectively
Variation tendency of the moisture content fall under different permeability grades that compound drives, obtain step 2) in each Dominated Factors
Boundary value：
According in exemplary value simulation model, the variation tendency of the moisture content fall of permeability grade and polymer flooding, with
Permeability grade is transverse axis, and moisture content fall is the longitudinal axis, the moisture content for the polymer flooding set up under different permeability grades
Fall change curve, corresponding permeability grade is altered to be poly- when the moisture content fall for defining polymer flooding is begun to decline
The boundary of observation, when moisture content fall is more than 1.2%, corresponding permeability grade is the poly- boundary for altering development；According to not
With the poly- boundary definitions for altering degree, the boundary of each Dominated Factors under the conditions of different injection of polymer drive liquor capacity is obtained
Value；
3. each Dominated Factors parameter value application control quantity method, i.e., single master control in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system are directed to
Factor parameter value changes according to+10% and -10%, and applying equation (1) calculates corresponding crossflow factor, and different Dominated Factors are to polymerization
The influence degree of thing channelling is different, and the weight of each index symbol A is drawn by sensitivity analysis and normalizediRepresent：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>A</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<mo>|</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&Delta;M</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</msub>
<mo>|</mo>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<munderover>
<mo>&Sigma;</mo>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>n</mi>
</munderover>
<mo>|</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&Delta;M</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</msub>
<mo>|</mo>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
In formula：|ΔMi| change for single index parameter value after+10% and -10%, the absolute value of corresponding crossflow factor change；n
For Dominated Factors number in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system；I is any master of crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system
Control factor；
4. last boundary value and weight by each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-alarming system of determination substitutes into fuzzy comprehensive
Close in scoring model, set up it is poly- alters Alarm Assessment model, and then the poly- of each well can be altered development, poly- alter observation, nothing and gather what is altered
Situation is judged respectively, is drawn to gather on well location map and is altered identifying result figure, and the result figure, which can intuitively be found out to gather on well location map, alters
Distribution.
5. a kind of monitoring polymer as claimed in claim 4 drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, its feature
It is, 4. the poly- specific calculating process for altering Alarm Assessment model of middle foundation is as follows for the step：
I) Comment gathers are determined, it is poly- alter in Early-warning Model it is general Comment gathers are set to poly- alter development, poly- alter observation and alter three without gathering
Individual rank, Comment gathers are designated as：
V={ v1,v2,v3} (3)
In formula：V is Comment gathers；v1Represent oil well and alter developmental condition in poly-；v2Represent oil well and alter observation state in poly-；v3Generation
Poly- alter does not occur for table oil well；
Ii the set of factors of influence Comment gathers, i.e. step 2) are determined) the middle crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system determined, set of factors
It is designated as：
U={ u1,u2,…,un} (4)
In formula：U representation polymers drive channelling pre-warning indexes system；u1,u2,…,unCorrespond crossflow of polymer flooding warning index
Each Dominated Factors in system；N is master control factor number；
Iii the boundary value of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system) 2. determined according to step, and pass through
After normalization method processing, Evaluations matrix is obtained：
<mrow>
<mi>R</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfenced open = "(" close = ")">
<mtable>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mn>11</mn>
</msub>
</mtd>
<mtd>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mn>12</mn>
</msub>
</mtd>
<mtd>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mn>13</mn>
</msub>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mtable>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
</mtd>
<mtd>
<mtable>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
</mtd>
<mtd>
<mtable>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<mo>.</mo>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
</mtd>
</mtr>
<mtr>
<mtd>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>n</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mtd>
<mtd>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>n</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mtd>
<mtd>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>n</mi>
<mn>3</mn>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mtd>
</mtr>
</mtable>
</mfenced>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>5</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
2
In formula, ri=(ri1,ri2,ri3) it is the corresponding Evaluations matrix of any Dominated Factors；I be any Dominated Factors, i=1,
2 ... ..., n；
Iv the weight of each Dominated Factors in the crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system) 3. determined according to step, sets up weight
Collection, weight sets is designated as：
A={ a1,a2,…,an} (6)
In formula：A represents weight sets；aiFor the weight of any index, i=1,2 ... ..., n；
V) the synthesis computing of application blurring mapping, obtains Comprehensive Evaluation result：
B=A × R={ b1,b2,b3} (7)
In formula：B is Comprehensive Evaluation result；b1Correspond to v in Comment gathers1Evaluation result；b2Correspond to the v in Comment gathers2Comment
Valency result；b3Correspond to v in Comment gathers3Evaluation result；
In Comprehensive Evaluation result, b1、b2Or b3Which numerical value is big, then oil well be in Comment gathers it is corresponding it is poly- alter under state, from
And poly- situation about altering is decision making.
6. a kind of monitoring polymer as claimed in claim 1 drives the method for early warning of fluid-channeling channel development between injection-production well, its feature
Be, the step 4) in the detailed process that is predicted to the development trend of later stage fluid-channeling channel it is as follows：
1. the one or more chosen first in method for numerical simulation, support vector machine method and gray prediction method are combined,
To step 2) in the numerical value at dynamic indicator T+n time points in crossflow of polymer flooding pre-warning indexes system be predicted；
2. will predict that obtained numerical value substitutes into step 3) set up it is poly- alter in Alarm Assessment model, obtain the poly- of T+n time points and alter
Developmental state, draws to gather on well location map and alters the figure that predicts the outcome, and the result figure can intuitively find out the poly- developmental state altered.
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