CN107145475A - A kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued - Google Patents

A kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued Download PDF

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Publication number
CN107145475A
CN107145475A CN201710342452.1A CN201710342452A CN107145475A CN 107145475 A CN107145475 A CN 107145475A CN 201710342452 A CN201710342452 A CN 201710342452A CN 107145475 A CN107145475 A CN 107145475A
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China
Prior art keywords
mrow
msub
probability
failure factor
fuzzy
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CN201710342452.1A
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Inventor
甘德刚
冯运
陈凌
刘睿
范松海
龙震泽
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Co Ltd
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Priority to CN201710342452.1A priority Critical patent/CN107145475A/en
Publication of CN107145475A publication Critical patent/CN107145475A/en
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued, comprise the following steps, A, the failure factor for determining power transformer sleeve pipe;B, the probability for determining each failure factor generation;C, the weight for determining using Fuzzy Set Data-Statistics method each failure factor;D, the probability occurred according to each failure factor and weight, calculate power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction.This method, come many uncertain factors present in indication transformer sleeve pipe, will not produce missing and the erroneous judgement of information by the way of confidence level, can it is more true, comprehensively react actual conditions.

Description

A kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical equipment fault probability calculation field, and in particular to a kind of transformer set based on Fuzzy-valued Pipe probability of malfunction computational methods.
Background technology
The sleeve pipe of power transformer guides to inside transformer high and low pressure lead outside fuel tank, serves not only as lead over the ground Insulation, and the effect of anchor leg is responsible for, it is the important composition part of power transformer, but due to by weather, making work The influence of skill, environment and electric field causes its failure cause numerous, is also the multiple part of Power Transformer Faults.Power transformer Sleeve pipe, which once breaks down, can cause short-circuit of power transformer electric current excessive, not only result in the operation troubles of transformer, even Can occur explosion accident and threaten personal safety, bring irreversible have a strong impact on.For objectively, power transformer sleeve pipe exists Human factor and surrounding environment during its manufacture, transport, installation etc. etc. all inevitably cause the event of sleeve pipe Barrier.Therefore, deep understanding is carried out to the fault type of power transformer sleeve pipe, studies the generation of power transformer sleeve pipe failure Probability is necessary.
The method of the current division on importance is a lot, mainly there is matter-element method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Grey Incidence etc.. This kind of method is to needing expert to do accurate quantitative description to evaluation index, but evaluation index is present necessarily in a practical situation Ambiguity, the fault rate that it draws is inaccurate, so this kind of method is difficult to adapt to practical situations.
The content of the invention
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem the present invention provides a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction meter based on Fuzzy-valued Calculation method, it, come many uncertain factors present in indication transformer sleeve pipe, will not produce information by the way of confidence level Missing and erroneous judgement, can it is more true, comprehensively react actual conditions.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued, comprise the following steps,
A, the failure factor for determining power transformer sleeve pipe;
B, the probability for determining each failure factor generation;
C, the weight for determining using Fuzzy Set Data-Statistics method each failure factor;
D, the probability occurred according to each failure factor and weight, calculate power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction.
This method confirms the weight of each failure factor using Fuzzy Set Data-Statistics method, i.e., represented by the way of confidence level The weight of many uncertain factors present in bushing shell for transformer, will not produce missing and the erroneous judgement of information, can it is more true, Comprehensively react actual conditions.
Preferably, the step B is specially:
B1, repeatedly its importance is judged in the form of evaluation interval for each failure factor respectively;
B2, each failure factor is directed to respectively, by all evaluation indexes one Set Valued Statistics sequence of formation and will evaluate area Between be overlapped, and represent with Fall shadow function this distribution;
B3, according to Fall shadow function, every time judge that the weight of evaluation index calculates the weight of each failure factor respectively respectively Value;
B4, all weighted values are normalized.
Further, the marker method of this distribution is:
Wherein,
[aik,bik] it is evaluation interval, i represents i failure factor, and k represents kth time evaluation, and m represents to evaluate total degree, N is failure factor total number.
The weighted value is:
Wherein, rkTo judge the weight of evaluation index every time.
The method of the normalized is:
The power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction P is:
Wherein, pnRepresent the probability that each failure factor occurs.
The present invention compared with prior art, has the following advantages and advantages:
1st, the present invention will not produce come many uncertain factors present in indication transformer sleeve pipe by the way of confidence level The missing of raw information and erroneous judgement, can it is more true, comprehensively react actual conditions.
Embodiment
For the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are more clearly understood, with reference to embodiment, to present invention work Further to describe in detail, exemplary embodiment and its explanation of the invention is only used for explaining the present invention, is not intended as to this The restriction of invention.
Embodiment 1
A kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued, comprise the following steps,
A, the failure factor for determining power transformer sleeve pipe;
B, the probability for determining each failure factor generation;
C, the weight for determining using Fuzzy Set Data-Statistics method each failure factor;
D, the probability occurred according to each failure factor and weight, calculate power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction.
For the above method, now its step is described in detail:
Step B is specially:
B1, repeatedly its importance is judged in the form of evaluation interval for each failure factor respectively;
B2, each failure factor is directed to respectively, by all evaluation indexes one Set Valued Statistics sequence of formation and will evaluate area Between be overlapped, and represent with Fall shadow function this distribution;
B3, according to Fall shadow function, every time judge that the weight of evaluation index calculates the weight of each failure factor respectively respectively Value;
B4, all weighted values are normalized.
Such as, have m expert to trigger Power Transformer Faults n factor carry out Assessment of Important, then always the need for M importance is carried out to each failure factor to judge.For some index x thereiniThe evaluation interval of each expert is [ai1,bi1],[ai2,bi2],…,[aim,bim].The evaluation interval of each index importance is as shown in table 1:
The estimation interval of the evaluation index importance of table 1
For a certain factor xi, given set value interval is formed a Set Valued Statistics sequence by expert, and these are interval It is superimposed, a kind of distribution can just be formed on number axis by falling, this distribution situation is represented with fallen or falling flowers function.Fallen or falling flowers letter Number:
Wherein,
[aik,bik] it is evaluation interval, i represents i failure factor, and k represents kth time evaluation, and m represents to evaluate total degree, N is failure factor total number.
Then, failure factor xiRelative weight value be:
X in formulaimin=min (ai1,ai2,…,aim);ximax=max (bi1,bi2,…,bim);I=1,2 ..., n;
Then, above formula is simplified can be obtained by:
The weighted value of every expert itself is rk,
Then the weighted value after addition Weight of Expert is:
Wherein, rkTo judge the weight of evaluation index every time.
All weighted values, which are normalized, then to be had:
Then power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction P is:
Wherein, pnRepresent the probability that each failure factor occurs.
Embodiment 2
By taking certain bushing shell for transformer as an example, the reason for causing its failure to occur has:Sleeve pipe external insulation climbs electricity, porcelain piece peeling, porcelain Part seepage, oil level are abnormal, conductor joint heating.The probability such as table 2 that each failure factor occurs
The power transformer sleeve pipe failure cause of table 2 and probability
Failure cause Probability
Sleeve pipe external insulation climbs electricity 0.24
Porcelain piece peeling 0.11
Porcelain piece seepage 0.26
Oil level is abnormal 0.17
Conductor joint heating 0.22
Weight is determined using the method for Fuzzy-valued
Expert is engaged to provide the marking of five indices importance interval, as shown in table 3.
The expert of table 3 gives a mark to the interval of evaluation index weights
The weight that the weight of each expert is determined according to factors such as educational background, academic title, the length of service is respectively:0.186,0.211, 0.224,0.193,0.186.
It is hereby achieved that the weighted value of each index is:
w12=21.285;w22=9.052;w32=22.483;w42=22.735;w52=22.262
Have after weight is normalized:
Use formula can calculate obtain the probability of malfunction of bushing shell for transformer for:
P=0.218 × 0.24+0.093 × 0.11+0.229 × 0.26+0.232 × 0.17+0.228 × 0.22= 0.212。
The Fuzzy Set Data-Statistics method that this invention is proposed is by the way of confidence level come present in indication transformer sleeve pipe Many uncertain factors, will not produce missing and the erroneous judgement of information, can it is more true, comprehensively react actual conditions, and meter Calculation amount is small, calculating process is simple, it is easy to promote, with practicality.The present invention intends the importance by calculating sleeve pipe different faults To realize the calculating of sleeve pipe probability of malfunction.
Above-described embodiment, has been carried out further to the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effect Describe in detail, should be understood that the embodiment that the foregoing is only the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention Protection domain, within the spirit and principles of the invention, any modification, equivalent substitution and improvements done etc. all should be included Within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps,
A, the failure factor for determining power transformer sleeve pipe;
B, the probability for determining each failure factor generation;
C, the weight for determining using Fuzzy Set Data-Statistics method each failure factor;
D, the probability occurred according to each failure factor and weight, calculate power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction.
2. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued according to claim 1, its feature It is, the step B is specially:
B1, repeatedly its importance is judged in the form of evaluation interval for each failure factor respectively;
B2, each failure factor is directed to respectively, the formation of all evaluation indexes and is entered evaluation interval one Set Valued Statistics sequence Row superposition, and represent with Fall shadow function this distribution;
B3, according to Fall shadow function, every time judge that the weight of evaluation index calculates the weighted value of each failure factor respectively respectively;
B4, all weighted values are normalized.
3. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued according to claim 2, its feature It is, the marker method of this distribution is:
<mrow> <mover> <mi>A</mi> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mi>m</mi> </mfrac> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mi>m</mi> </munderover> <mi>A</mi> <mo>&amp;lsqb;</mo> <msub> <mi>a</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>b</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>&amp;rsqb;</mo> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
Wherein,
<mrow> <mi>A</mi> <mo>&amp;lsqb;</mo> <msub> <mi>a</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>b</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>&amp;rsqb;</mo> <mo>=</mo> <mfenced open = "{" close = ""> <mtable> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>a</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>&amp;le;</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;le;</mo> <msub> <mi>b</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>&lt;</mo> <msub> <mi>a</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <mo>&gt;</mo> <msub> <mi>b</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> </mtable> </mfenced> <mo>,</mo> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>n</mi> <mo>;</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>m</mi> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
[aik,bik] it is evaluation interval, i represents i failure factor, and k represents kth time evaluation, and m represents to evaluate total degree, and n is event Barrier factor total number.
4. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued according to claim 2, its feature It is, the weighted value is:
<mrow> <msub> <mi>w</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>k</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>m</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>r</mi> <mi>k</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;lsqb;</mo> <msubsup> <mi>b</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </msubsup> <mo>-</mo> <msubsup> <mi>a</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> <mn>2</mn> </msubsup> <mo>&amp;rsqb;</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mn>2</mn> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>k</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>m</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>r</mi> <mi>k</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;lsqb;</mo> <msub> <mi>b</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>a</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>&amp;rsqb;</mo> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>,</mo> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>n</mi> <mo>;</mo> <mi>k</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mn>...</mn> <mo>,</mo> <mi>m</mi> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
Wherein, rkTo judge the weight of evaluation index every time.
5. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued according to claim 4, its feature It is, the method for the normalized is:
<mrow> <msub> <mover> <mi>w</mi> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <msub> <mi>w</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>w</mi> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>.</mo> </mrow>
6. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued according to claim 1, its feature It is, the power transformer sleeve pipe probability of malfunction P is:
<mrow> <mi>P</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>p</mi> <mn>1</mn> </msub> <msub> <mover> <mi>w</mi> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mn>12</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>p</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msub> <msub> <mover> <mi>w</mi> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mn>22</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mo>...</mo> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>p</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> <msub> <mover> <mi>w</mi> <mo>&amp;OverBar;</mo> </mover> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msub> <mo>,</mo> </mrow>
Wherein, pnRepresent the probability that each failure factor occurs.
7. a kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued according to claim 1, its feature It is, the failure factor climbs electricity, porcelain piece peeling, porcelain piece seepage, oil level exception, conductor joint heating including sleeve pipe external insulation.
CN201710342452.1A 2017-05-16 2017-05-16 A kind of bushing shell for transformer probability of malfunction computational methods based on Fuzzy-valued Pending CN107145475A (en)

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CN107831300A (en) * 2017-10-20 2018-03-23 广东电网有限责任公司河源供电局 A kind of transformer insulation oil based on three-dimensional trapezoidal Probabilistic Fuzzy collection deteriorates appraisal procedure
CN108446495A (en) * 2018-03-21 2018-08-24 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of transformer body state evaluating method and device
CN108491358A (en) * 2018-03-21 2018-09-04 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of bushing shell for transformer state evaluating method and device
CN110321520A (en) * 2019-03-22 2019-10-11 广东电网有限责任公司 A kind of transformer state evaluation method based on Weighted distance diagnostic method
CN111415093A (en) * 2020-03-24 2020-07-14 江苏中堃数据技术有限公司 Distribution transformer fault early warning method based on multi-factor and dynamic weight
CN112559964A (en) * 2020-11-27 2021-03-26 成都飞机工业(集团)有限责任公司 Weight coefficient-based flight control fault probability calculation method

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Cited By (12)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107831415A (en) * 2017-10-20 2018-03-23 广东电网有限责任公司河源供电局 The Interval Valued Fuzzy diversity method that a kind of transformer insulating paper ageing state is assessed
CN107831300A (en) * 2017-10-20 2018-03-23 广东电网有限责任公司河源供电局 A kind of transformer insulation oil based on three-dimensional trapezoidal Probabilistic Fuzzy collection deteriorates appraisal procedure
CN107831415B (en) * 2017-10-20 2020-02-04 广东电网有限责任公司河源供电局 Interval value fuzzy set method for transformer insulation paper aging state evaluation
CN107831300B (en) * 2017-10-20 2020-02-04 广东电网有限责任公司河源供电局 Transformer insulating oil degradation evaluation method based on three-dimensional trapezoidal probability fuzzy set
CN108446495A (en) * 2018-03-21 2018-08-24 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of transformer body state evaluating method and device
CN108491358A (en) * 2018-03-21 2018-09-04 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of bushing shell for transformer state evaluating method and device
CN108491358B (en) * 2018-03-21 2021-10-26 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 Transformer bushing state evaluation method and device
CN110321520A (en) * 2019-03-22 2019-10-11 广东电网有限责任公司 A kind of transformer state evaluation method based on Weighted distance diagnostic method
CN111415093A (en) * 2020-03-24 2020-07-14 江苏中堃数据技术有限公司 Distribution transformer fault early warning method based on multi-factor and dynamic weight
CN111415093B (en) * 2020-03-24 2023-05-23 江苏中堃数据技术有限公司 Multi-factor and dynamic weight-based distribution transformer fault early warning method
CN112559964A (en) * 2020-11-27 2021-03-26 成都飞机工业(集团)有限责任公司 Weight coefficient-based flight control fault probability calculation method
CN112559964B (en) * 2020-11-27 2022-05-10 成都飞机工业(集团)有限责任公司 Weight coefficient-based flight control fault probability calculation method

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Application publication date: 20170908