CN107133742A - A kind of data processing method and device - Google Patents
A kind of data processing method and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiments of the invention provide a kind of data processing method and device.By the initial disaster and the probability of happening of secondary disaster according to harmful influence and the two disaster chain scene constituted the consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the embodiment of the present invention, to determine the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene, the disaster consequence of initial disaster is not only allowed in harmful influence risk analysis, connected each other always according between disaster in harmful influence disaster chain, complementary rule, further contemplate the disaster consequence for the secondary disaster that initial disaster may trigger, so that the risk analysis of harmful influence is with influencing each other caused by more rational harmful influence disaster chain, the consequence of interaction is foundation, and then improve the accuracy of harmful influence risk analysis.Therefore solve the problem of risk analysis accuracy of harmful influence in the prior art is relatively low.
Description
【Technical field】
The present invention relates to chemical industry risk assessment technology field, more particularly to a kind of data processing method and device.
【Background technology】
Harmful influence refers to characteristics such as inflammable, explosive, poisonous, harmful and radioactivity, is taken care of in transportation loading and unloading and storage
During easily cause casualties and property damage and need the chemical substance of special protection.It is this special due to harmful influence
Property, therefore it is extremely important for the management of harmful influence.
Currently, in the management of harmful influence, the various single disasters that may occur for harmful influence carry out respectively it is qualitative or
Quantitative risk analysis, is then managed according to the risk analysis result of single disaster to harmful influence.
However, as social mobility and complexity are unprecedentedly improved, harmful influence triggers secondary again after occurring initial disaster
The situation of disaster is increasing, and the initial disaster of harmful influence constitutes chain effect with secondary disaster, forms disaster chain.Many situations
Under, the extent of injury of harmful influence disaster chain alreadys exceed the initial disaster of harmful influence in itself.
In process of the present invention is realized, inventor has found that at least there are the following problems in the prior art：
The disaster consequence of single disaster is only considered in existing harmful influence risk analysis, for the risk analysis of harmful influence
Accuracy is relatively low.
【The content of the invention】
In view of this, the embodiments of the invention provide a kind of data processing method and device, to solve in the prior art
The problem of risk analysis accuracy of harmful influence is relatively low.
In a first aspect, the embodiments of the invention provide a kind of data processing method, methods described includes：
Based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtain and specify harmful influence to occur the first probability for specifying initial disaster；
According to secondary disaster trigger model, the secondary disaster for specifying initial disaster to trigger is determined, and obtain
Second probability for specifying initial disaster to trigger the secondary disaster；
Based on first probability, second probability, acquisition includes the specified initial disaster and the secondary disaster
Disaster chain scene occurrence frequency；
According to specified consequences analysis model, analyze the disaster chain scene and occur the consequence data for specifying consequence；
According to the occurrence frequency and the consequence data, the value-at-risk of the disaster chain scene is determined.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, after specifying
Fruit analysis model, analyzes the disaster chain scene and occurs the consequence data for specifying consequence, including：
According to specified consequences analysis model, the specified initial disaster analyzed respectively in the disaster chain scene refers to
The the second consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the first consequence data and the secondary disaster for determining consequence；
According to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, the 3rd consequence data are obtained, after taking the described 3rd
The consequence data that minimum value in both fruit data and 1 occurs to specify consequence as the disaster chain scene.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, according to described the
One consequence data and the second consequence data, obtain the disaster chain scene and occur the consequence data for specifying consequence, including：
The first consequence data are added with the second consequence data, the disaster chain scene is obtained and occurs after specifying
The consequence data of fruit.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, methods described is also
Including：
The value-at-risk of the disaster chain scene is compared with specified threshold, value-at-risk is obtained and is more than the specified threshold
Disaster chain scene；
Export the disaster chain scene that value-at-risk is more than the specified threshold.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, the secondary calamity
Harmful species is at least two classes, and the species of the disaster chain scene is at least two classes, and methods described also includes：
The value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene is compared, the maximum specified quantity disaster chain of value-at-risk is obtained
Scape；
Export the maximum specified quantity disaster chain scene of value-at-risk.
Second aspect, the embodiments of the invention provide a kind of data processing equipment, described device includes：
First probability acquisition module, specifies harmful influence to occur to specify for based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtaining
First probability of initial disaster；
Second probability determination module, for according to secondary disaster trigger model, determining that the specified initial disaster can be touched
The secondary disaster of hair, and obtain second probability for specifying initial disaster to trigger the secondary disaster；
Disaster chain frequency acquisition module, for based on first probability, second probability, acquisition to include described specify
The occurrence frequency of the disaster chain scene of initial disaster and the secondary disaster；
Consequences analysis module, occurs to specify consequence for according to specified consequences analysis model, analyzing the disaster chain scene
Consequence data；
Risk determining module, for according to the occurrence frequency and the consequence data, determining the disaster chain scene
Value-at-risk.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, the consequence point
Module is analysed when occurring the consequence data for specifying consequence for according to specified consequences analysis model, analyzing the disaster chain scene,
Specifically for：
According to specified consequences analysis model, the specified initial disaster analyzed respectively in the disaster chain scene refers to
The the second consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the first consequence data and the secondary disaster for determining consequence；
According to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, the 3rd consequence data are obtained, after taking the described 3rd
The consequence data that minimum value in both fruit data and 1 occurs to specify consequence as the disaster chain scene.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, the consequence point
Analysis module occurs to specify for according to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, obtaining the disaster chain scene
During the consequence data of consequence, specifically for：
The first consequence data are added with the second consequence data, the disaster chain scene is obtained and occurs after specifying
The consequence data of fruit.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, described device is also
Including：
First comparison module, for the value-at-risk of the disaster chain scene to be compared with specified threshold, obtains risk
Disaster chain scene of the value more than the specified threshold；
First output module, the disaster chain scene of the specified threshold is more than for exporting value-at-risk.
Aspect as described above and any possible implementation, it is further provided a kind of implementation, the secondary calamity
Harmful species is at least two classes, and the species of the disaster chain scene is at least two classes, and described device also includes：
Second comparison module, for the value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene to be compared, obtains the maximum finger of value-at-risk
Fixed number amount disaster chain scene；
Second output module, the specified quantity disaster chain scene maximum for exporting value-at-risk.
The embodiment of the present invention has the advantages that：
The embodiment of the present invention, passes through the initial disaster and the probability of happening of secondary disaster according to harmful influence and the two composition
The consequence data for specifying consequence occur for disaster chain scene, to determine the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene, in harmful influence risk analysis
The disaster consequence of initial disaster is not only allowed for, always according to being connected each other between disaster in harmful influence disaster chain, complementary
Rule, further contemplates the disaster consequence for the secondary disaster that initial disaster may trigger, so that the risk of harmful influence point
Analysis improves danger using the consequence for influencing each other, interacting caused by more rational harmful influence disaster chain as foundation
The accuracy of change product risk analysis.
【Brief description of the drawings】
In order to illustrate the technical solution of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, below will be attached to what is used required in embodiment
Figure is briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, for this area
For those of ordinary skill, without having to pay creative labor, it can also be obtained according to these accompanying drawings other attached
Figure.
Fig. 1 is the first pass exemplary plot of data processing method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the second procedure exemplary plot of data processing method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the 3rd flow example figure of data processing method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is the functional block diagram of data processing equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
【Embodiment】
In order to be better understood from technical scheme, the embodiment of the present invention is retouched in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings
State.
It will be appreciated that described embodiment is only a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiments.Base
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art obtained under the premise of creative work is not made it is all its
Its embodiment, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
The term used in embodiments of the present invention is the purpose only merely for description specific embodiment, and is not intended to be limiting
The present invention." one kind ", " described " and "the" of singulative used in the embodiment of the present invention and appended claims
It is also intended to including most forms, unless context clearly shows that other implications.
Embodiment one
Fig. 1 is the first pass exemplary plot of data processing method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in figure 1, this implementation
In example, data processing method may include steps of：
S101, based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtains specify harmful influence to occur to specify initial disaster first general
Rate；
S102, according to secondary disaster trigger model, it is determined that specifying the secondary disaster that initial disaster can be triggered, and is obtained
Initial disaster is specified to trigger the second probability of secondary disaster；
S103, based on the first probability, the second probability, obtains the disaster chain scene for including specifying initial disaster and secondary disaster
Occurrence frequency；
S104, according to specified consequences analysis model, the consequence data for specifying consequence occur for analysis disaster chain scene；
S105, according to occurrence frequency and consequence data, determines the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene.
Wherein, it is to be occurred destruction by a certain dangerous source device (or facility) and in the case of initiation, occurred in initial disaster
Specify the first probability of initial disaster can be based on Delphi methods, causality analysis plan method, disaster tree, accident tree, Markov chain etc.
Initial Hazard analysis is obtained.In the case where primary event is a certain spontaneous generation of specific event, such as earthquake, flood
Deng, occur specify initial disaster the first probability can combine specific event type, based on Statistic analysis models, physical model
Obtained etc. initial Hazard analysis.
Wherein, there is certain medium, such as physics, chemistry, biology and information in the triggering in disaster chain between each disaster
Factor, the interaction of these factors just constitutes secondary disaster trigger model.The physical effect of higher level's disaster causes target to set
Standby damage triggers subordinate's secondary disaster.
By S102, risk managers can grasp the general status of disaster, have one always to the disaster chain that may occur
Body is grasped.
Wherein, the issuable consequence of disaster chain scene can include casualties, economic loss and environmental disruption etc., one
As in the case of analyze and quantify the consequence of disaster chain scene only from casualties.
During a concrete implementation, according to specified consequences analysis model, analysis disaster chain scene occurs after specifying
The consequence data of fruit, including：According to specified consequences analysis model, the specified initial disaster analyzed respectively in disaster chain scene occurs
The the first consequence data and secondary disaster of consequence are specified to occur the second consequence data for specifying consequence；According to the first consequence data and
Second consequence data, obtain disaster chain scene and occur the consequence data for specifying consequence.
During a concrete implementation, according to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, disaster chain scene is obtained
Occur the consequence data for specifying consequence, including：First consequence data are added with the second consequence data, the 3rd consequence number is obtained
According to the consequence data for taking the minimum value in both the 3rd consequence data and 1 to occur to specify consequence as disaster chain scene.
By S105, risk managers can be considered according to actual conditions the frequency and consequence two of disaster chain because
Element, so that the higher disaster chain scene of the selected risk for needing to pay close attention to.
Embodiment illustrated in fig. 1, according to the probability of happening of the initial disaster of harmful influence and secondary disaster and the calamity of the two composition
The consequence data for specifying consequence occur for evil chain scene, to determine the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene, in harmful influence risk analysis not
The disaster consequence of initial disaster is only accounted for, always according to being connected each other between disaster in harmful influence disaster chain, complementary rule
Rule, further contemplates the disaster consequence for the secondary disaster that initial disaster may trigger, so that the risk analysis of harmful influence
Using the consequence for influencing each other, interacting caused by more rational harmful influence disaster chain as foundation, and then improve dangerization
The accuracy of product risk analysis.
Fig. 2 is the second procedure exemplary plot of data processing method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in Fig. 2 this implementation
In example, data processing method may include steps of：
S201, based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtains specify harmful influence to occur to specify initial disaster first general
Rate；
S202, according to secondary disaster trigger model, it is determined that specifying the secondary disaster that initial disaster can be triggered, and is obtained
Initial disaster is specified to trigger the second probability of secondary disaster；
S203, based on the first probability, the second probability, obtains the disaster chain scene for including specifying initial disaster and secondary disaster
Occurrence frequency；
S204, according to specified consequences analysis model, the consequence data for specifying consequence occur for analysis disaster chain scene；
S205, according to occurrence frequency and consequence data, determines the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene；
S206, the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene is compared with specified threshold, is obtained value-at-risk and is more than specified threshold
Disaster chain scene；
S207, output value-at-risk is more than the disaster chain scene of specified threshold.
Wherein, the species of disaster chain scene and the number of species of secondary disaster are identicals, because each disaster chain
Scape includes initial disaster and a kind of secondary disaster.For example, having B, C, D, E, F five in the initial disaster A secondary disasters that may trigger
In the case of kind, disaster chain scene has five kinds of A+B, A+C, A+D, A+E, A+F.
Embodiment illustrated in fig. 2, after the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene is determined, further by the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene
It is compared with specified threshold, obtains value-at-risk and be more than the disaster chain scene of specified threshold and export.So, risk managers can
To set the threshold value of value-at-risk according to specific needs, easily to find out the disaster chain for needing to pay close attention to according to the threshold value
Scape.
Fig. 3 is the 3rd flow example figure of data processing method provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in figure 3, this implementation
In example, data processing method may include steps of：
S301, based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtains specify harmful influence to occur to specify initial disaster first general
Rate；
S302, according to secondary disaster trigger model, it is determined that specifying the secondary disaster that initial disaster can be triggered, and is obtained
Initial disaster is specified to trigger the second probability of secondary disaster, wherein, the species of secondary disaster is at least two classes；
S303, based on the first probability, the second probability, obtains the disaster chain scene for including specifying initial disaster and secondary disaster
Occurrence frequency, wherein, the species of disaster chain scene is at least two classes；
S304, according to specified consequences analysis model, the consequence data for specifying consequence occur for analysis disaster chain scene；
S305, according to occurrence frequency and consequence data, determines the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene；
S306, the value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene is compared, and obtains the maximum specified quantity disaster of value-at-risk
Chain scene；
S307, the maximum specified quantity disaster chain scene of output value-at-risk.
Embodiment illustrated in fig. 3, is that at least two classes, the species of disaster chain scene are at least two classes in the species of secondary disaster
In the case of, further the value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene is compared, the maximum specified quantity disaster of value-at-risk is obtained
Chain scene is simultaneously exported.So, in the case where the species of disaster chain scene is more, risk managers can easily find out most
Need the specified quantity disaster chain scene paid close attention to.Based on this, risk managers can be carried out limited protective articles
Rational distribution, farthest to reduce the loss that harmful influence disaster is caused.
Illustrated below by quantitative individual risk's analysis principle of harmful influence disaster chain.
If designated area has n+1 equipment, wherein 1 equipment of selection is as initial disaster, and the equipment passes through heat radiation, super
Pressure or shock wave, projectile (fragment) etc. pass to target device and further trigger secondary disaster.May occur for n secondary
The target device of disaster, the accident pattern of (or harm is maximum) is most likely to occur using each of which as secondary disaster, herein
Only consider that the accident of 1 type occurs for 1 target device.In the case, initial disaster probability of happening, secondary disaster occur general
Rate, disaster chain scene occurrence frequency, the consequences analysis of disaster chain and disaster chain individual risk assess as follows respectively：
(1) initial disaster probability of happening
Initial disaster probability of happening fInitiallyIt is, for research object, to pass through with specific disaster or dangerous source device (facility)
Qualitative or quantitative method determines the probability that a certain disaster occurs.If initial disaster is by a certain dangerous source device (facility)
Occur destruction and trigger, determine fInitiallyGenerally can using Delphi methods, causality analysis plan method, disaster tree, accident tree,
The methods such as Markov chain；If primary event is a certain spontaneous generation of specific event, such as earthquake, flood determines fInitiallyGenerally
Need to combine specific event type using the acquisition of the methods such as statistical analysis, physical model calculating.
(2) secondary disaster probability of happening
The effect and the inherent attribute for the secondary disaster that may occur that initial disaster is produced determine i-th of target device hair
The probability P of raw secondary disasteri.Generally secondary disaster probability of happening is counted using the probability function technique based on empirical data
Calculate.The formula group of probability function technique is as follows：
Yi=k1+k2lnVi
In formula group (1), each alphabetical implication is as follows：
Pi--- the probability of secondary disaster occurs for i-th of target device；
Vi--- the Flood inducing factors parameter of secondary disaster occurs for i-th of target device of triggering, in different triggering disasters
Represent different physical meanings；
Yi--- the probability unit of i-th of target device；
k1、k2--- empirical coefficient.
(3) disaster chain scene occurrence frequency
The frequency for the disaster chain scene that initial disaster triggers can be calculated by following formula group (2).
In formula group (2), each alphabetical implication is as follows：
--- occur the expected frequency of m kind disaster chain scenes containing the k target devices that may occur secondary disaster；
fInitially--- initial disaster probability of happening；
Pd (k,m)--- the probability of the m kind disaster chain scenes of secondary disaster occurs containing k target device；
Pi--- the probability of secondary disaster occurs for target device i；
--- the m kind disaster chain scenes of secondary disaster occur comprising k equipment,
Wherein m refers to m-th of combine scenes (1≤m≤2n- 1), k refers to k-th of equipment (k≤n), when equipment i belongs toThis scene
During combination,1 is taken, 0 is otherwise taken；
The number of n --- target device.
(4) disaster chain consequences analysis
It is assumed herein that disaster chain consequence is casualties.
Vulnerability Model is the relatively good method to the dose response relation of Flood inducing factors for evaluator, and it is by normal state
The accumulation schedule of probability-distribution function, which reaches, to be derived.Vulnerability Model refers to formula below group (3).
Y=a+b ln D (3)
In formula group (3), each alphabetical implication is as follows：
Vi--- human body fragility or personnel death's probability, 0≤V≤1；
D --- Flood inducing factors danger dose；
The median and variance of μ, σ --- normal distribution；
Y --- probability unit variable；
A, b --- probability coefficent.
Consequences analysis to disaster chain is exactly to carry out quantitative analysis to the consequence of each disaster in disaster chain, and computing staff is dead
Probability.Assisted in disaster chain consequences analysis caused by being exposed to different physical effects (heat radiation, superpressure etc.) simultaneously
It will cause the non-linear relation between Death probit and calamity factor danger dose with effect.Ignore the collaboration effect of different Flood inducing factors
Should, analyzed using fragility probabilistic model, calculate the probability of death that each disaster is caused respectively, and by each disaster scene
The fragility of generation is added.The overall fragility V of disaster chaintIt is that initial disaster and secondary disaster trigger Death probit sum,
As shown in formula (4).
In formula (4), each alphabetical implication is as follows：
--- the overall personnel that the m kind disaster chain scenes for occurring secondary disaster comprising k target device are caused are dead
Die probability；
--- when equipment i belongs toDuring this scene composition,1 is taken, 0 is otherwise taken；
VD, i--- personnel death's probability that secondary disaster is caused occurs for target device i.
(5) disaster chain individual risk assesses
Quantitative Risk Assessment needs to select suitable risk indicator to weigh the result of risk quantification.Herein, using individual
Risk carries out quantitative analysis to disaster chain.The individual risk of disaster chain is represented by formula below (5)：
The data processing method of the embodiment of the present invention, the generation by initial disaster and secondary disaster according to harmful influence is general
The consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the disaster chain scene of rate and the two composition, to determine the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene, in danger
The disaster consequence of initial disaster is not only allowed in change product risk analysis, is mutually interconnected always according between disaster in harmful influence disaster chain
System, complementary rule, further contemplate the disaster consequence for the secondary disaster that initial disaster may trigger, so that danger
The consequence for influencing each other, interacting caused by the risk analysis of change product using more rational harmful influence disaster chain as foundation,
And then improve the accuracy of harmful influence risk analysis.
Embodiment two
The embodiments of the invention provide a kind of data processing equipment, the data processing equipment can realize previous embodiment one
Each step of middle data processing method.
Fig. 4 is the functional block diagram of data processing equipment provided in an embodiment of the present invention.As shown in figure 4, in the present embodiment,
Data processing equipment can include：
First probability acquisition module 410, for based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtaining and specifying harmful influence to refer to
First probability of fixed initial disaster；
Second probability determination module 420, for according to secondary disaster trigger model, it is determined that specifying initial disaster to trigger
Secondary disaster, and obtain the second probability for specifying initial disaster to trigger the secondary disaster；
Disaster chain frequency acquisition module 430, includes specifying initial disaster for based on the first probability, the second probability, obtaining
With the occurrence frequency of the disaster chain scene of secondary disaster；
Consequences analysis module 440, for according to specified consequences analysis model, analysis disaster chain scene to occur to specify consequence
Consequence data；
Risk determining module 450, for according to occurrence frequency and consequence data, determining the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene.
During a concrete implementation, data processing equipment can also include：First comparison module, for by disaster
The value-at-risk of chain scene is compared with specified threshold, obtains the disaster chain scene that value-at-risk is more than specified threshold；First output
Module, the disaster chain scene of specified threshold is more than for exporting value-at-risk.
During a concrete implementation, the species of secondary disaster is at least two classes, and the species of disaster chain scene is extremely
Few two classes, data processing equipment can also include：Second comparison module, for the value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene to be compared
Compared with the maximum specified quantity disaster chain scene of acquisition value-at-risk；Second output module, for exporting, value-at-risk is maximum to specify
Quantity disaster chain scene.
During a concrete implementation, consequences analysis module 440 is for according to specified consequences analysis model, analysis
When the consequence data for specifying consequence occur for disaster chain scene, specifically for：According to specified consequences analysis model, disaster is analyzed respectively
Specified initial disaster in chain scene occurs to specify the first consequence data and secondary disaster of consequence to occur specify consequence second
Consequence data；According to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, obtain disaster chain scene and occur the consequence data for specifying consequence.
During a concrete implementation, consequences analysis module 440 is after for according to the first consequence data and second
Fruit data, when obtaining the consequence data of the specified consequence of disaster chain scene generation, specifically for：After the first consequence data and second
Fruit data are added, and obtain the 3rd consequence data, take the minimum value in both the 3rd consequence data and 1 to be sent out as disaster chain scene
The consequence data of raw specified consequence.
The data processing equipment of the embodiment of the present invention, the generation by initial disaster and secondary disaster according to harmful influence is general
The consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the disaster chain scene of rate and the two composition, to determine the value-at-risk of disaster chain scene, in danger
The disaster consequence of initial disaster is not only allowed in change product risk analysis, is mutually interconnected always according between disaster in harmful influence disaster chain
System, complementary rule, further contemplate the disaster consequence for the secondary disaster that initial disaster may trigger, so that danger
The consequence for influencing each other, interacting caused by the risk analysis of change product using more rational harmful influence disaster chain as foundation,
And then improve the accuracy of harmful influence risk analysis.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description,
The specific work process of device and module, may be referred to the corresponding process in preceding method embodiment, will not be repeated here.
In several embodiments provided by the present invention, it should be understood that disclosed system, apparatus and method can be with
Realize by another way.For example, device embodiment described above is only schematical, for example, the module
Divide, only a kind of division of logic function there can be other dividing mode when actually realizing, for example, multiple modules or group
Part can combine or be desirably integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored, or not perform.It is another, it is shown
Or the coupling each other discussed or direct-coupling or communication connection can be by some interfaces, device or module it is indirect
Coupling is communicated to connect, and can be electrical, machinery or other forms.
The module illustrated as separating component can be or may not be it is physically separate, it is aobvious as module
The part shown can be or may not be physical module, you can with positioned at a place, or can also be distributed to multiple
On NE.Some or all of module therein can be selected to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme according to the actual needs
's.
In addition, each functional module in each embodiment of the invention can be integrated in a processing unit, can also
That modules are individually physically present, can also two or more modules it is integrated in a unit.Above-mentioned integrated list
Member can both be realized in the form of hardware, it would however also be possible to employ hardware adds the form of SFU software functional unit to realize.
The above-mentioned integrated unit realized in the form of SFU software functional unit, can be stored in an embodied on computer readable and deposit
In storage media.Above-mentioned SFU software functional unit is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are to cause a computer
Device (can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) or processor (Processor) perform the present invention each
The part steps of embodiment methods described.And foregoing storage medium includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only storage (Read-
Only Memory, ROM), random access memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), magnetic disc or CD etc. it is various
Can be with the medium of store program codes.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, all essences in the present invention
God is with principle, and any modification, equivalent substitution and improvements done etc. should be included within the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of data processing method, it is characterised in that methods described includes：
Based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtain and specify harmful influence to occur the first probability for specifying initial disaster；
According to secondary disaster trigger model, the secondary disaster for specifying initial disaster to trigger is determined, and obtain described
Initial disaster is specified to trigger the second probability of the secondary disaster；
Based on first probability, second probability, obtaining includes the calamity of the specified initial disaster and the secondary disaster
The occurrence frequency of evil chain scene；
According to specified consequences analysis model, analyze the disaster chain scene and occur the consequence data for specifying consequence；
According to the occurrence frequency and the consequence data, the value-at-risk of the disaster chain scene is determined.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that according to specified consequences analysis model, analyze the disaster chain
The consequence data for specifying consequence occur for scene, including：
According to specified consequences analysis model, the specified initial disaster analyzed respectively in the disaster chain scene occurs after specifying
The the second consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the first consequence data of fruit and the secondary disaster；
According to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, obtain the disaster chain scene and occur to specify after consequence
Fruit data.
3. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that according to the first consequence data and the second consequence number
According to, obtain the disaster chain scene and occur the consequence data for specifying consequence, including：
The first consequence data are added with the second consequence data, the 3rd consequence data are obtained, the 3rd consequence is taken
The consequence data that minimum value in both data and 1 occurs to specify consequence as the disaster chain scene.
4. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that methods described also includes：
The value-at-risk of the disaster chain scene is compared with specified threshold, the calamity that value-at-risk is more than the specified threshold is obtained
Evil chain scene；
Export the disaster chain scene that value-at-risk is more than the specified threshold.
5. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that the species of the secondary disaster is at least two classes, the calamity
The species of evil chain scene is at least two classes, and methods described also includes：
The value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene is compared, the maximum specified quantity disaster chain scene of value-at-risk is obtained；
Export the maximum specified quantity disaster chain scene of value-at-risk.
6. a kind of data processing equipment, it is characterised in that described device includes：
First probability acquisition module, specifies harmful influence to occur to specify initial for based on specified initial Hazard analysis, obtaining
First probability of disaster；
Second probability determination module, for according to secondary disaster trigger model, determining what the specified initial disaster can be triggered
Secondary disaster, and obtain second probability for specifying initial disaster to trigger the secondary disaster；
Disaster chain frequency acquisition module, for based on first probability, second probability, acquisition to include described specify initially
The occurrence frequency of the disaster chain scene of disaster and the secondary disaster；
Consequences analysis module, occurs to specify after consequence for according to specified consequences analysis model, analyzing the disaster chain scene
Fruit data；
Risk determining module, for according to the occurrence frequency and the consequence data, determining the risk of the disaster chain scene
Value.
7. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that the consequences analysis module is for according to specified consequence point
Model is analysed, when analyzing the consequence data of the specified consequence of disaster chain scene generation, specifically for：
According to specified consequences analysis model, the specified initial disaster analyzed respectively in the disaster chain scene occurs after specifying
The the second consequence data for specifying consequence occur for the first consequence data of fruit and the secondary disaster；
According to the first consequence data and the second consequence data, obtain the disaster chain scene and occur to specify after consequence
Fruit data.
8. device according to claim 7, it is characterised in that the consequences analysis module is after for according to described first
Fruit data and the second consequence data, when obtaining the consequence data of the specified consequence of disaster chain scene generation, specifically for：
The first consequence data are added with the second consequence data, the 3rd consequence data are obtained, the 3rd consequence is taken
The consequence data that minimum value in both data and 1 occurs to specify consequence as the disaster chain scene.
9. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described device also includes：
First comparison module, for the value-at-risk of the disaster chain scene to be compared with specified threshold, obtains value-at-risk big
In the disaster chain scene of the specified threshold；
First output module, the disaster chain scene of the specified threshold is more than for exporting value-at-risk.
10. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that the species of the secondary disaster is at least two classes, the calamity
The species of evil chain scene is at least two classes, and described device also includes：
Second comparison module, for the value-at-risk of each disaster chain scene to be compared, obtains the maximum specified number of value-at-risk
Amount disaster chain scene；
Second output module, the specified quantity disaster chain scene maximum for exporting value-at-risk.
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