CN106971263A - Consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of the time value of money - Google Patents

Consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of the time value of money Download PDF

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CN106971263A
CN106971263A CN201710156568.6A CN201710156568A CN106971263A CN 106971263 A CN106971263 A CN 106971263A CN 201710156568 A CN201710156568 A CN 201710156568A CN 106971263 A CN106971263 A CN 106971263A
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photovoltaic plant
electricity price
year
formula
photovoltaic
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郑志杰
王艳
赵龙
贾善杰
王飞
汪湲
杜鹏
冯亮
梁荣
杨波
杨慎全
张�浩
李凯
李昭
张雯
邓少治
刘淑莉
庞怡君
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method for considering the time value of money, following steps are specifically included：1) photovoltaic plant electricity price cost analysis relevant rudimentary data, are extracted, basic data includes that installed capacity of power station, design life, the electric subsidy of degree that initially installation cost, one's own reserves and bank loan ratio, loan rate, repayment period, photovoltaic plant year operation maintenance rate, government are given, project base earnings ratio, photovoltaic plant be year equivalent at full capacity, photovoltaic module year attenuation rate；2), founding mathematical models：Calculate photovoltaic plant electricity price cost.The present invention is with dynamic viewpoint analysis electricity price cost, time value on assets, photovoltaic power station power generation ability is considered the factor such as over time progressively to decay, the dynamic model and algorithm for the photovoltaic plant cost electricity price derived, make the estimation of electricity price cost more accurate, so as to be that project investment and government decision are referred to.

Description

Consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of the time value of money
Technical field
The present invention relates to photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method technical field, specifically a kind of consideration fund time The photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of value.
Background technology
Compared with conventional energy resource generates electricity, photovoltaic generation still belongs to " intermittent energy " at present, and big, Modulatory character is impacted to power network Difference；Cost remains unchanged higher, it is necessary to could develop by government subsidy.But under the overall background of Developing low-carbon economy, due to The progress of science and technology and the support of government policy, photovoltaic generation industry are currently under great change and fast-developing period.
Nearly ten years, domestic photovoltaic plant project development is swift and violent, by the end of the year 2015, domestic photovoltaic generation total installation of generating capacity 43.18GW is reached, and 635 times were increased compared with 2005,90% is grown beyond every year.With increasing sharply for installed capacity, National Development and Reform Committee issues in December, 2015《On improve land wind-powered electricity generation, photovoltaic generation online stake electrovalence policy it is logical Know》,《Notify》Explicitly point out, photovoltaic plant online stake electrovalence will be progressively lowered, so as to realize《Energy development strategic action meter Draw (2014~the year two thousand twenty)》The target suitable with sales rate of electricity supplied to consumers on photovoltaic plant rate for incorporation into the power network proposed.This Under background, the electricity price cost of photovoltaic generation needs more careful progress to estimate, so as to make to join for project investment and government decision Examine.
The mathematical modeling of existing photovoltaic plant electricity price cost is primarily present problems with：
1) time value on assets, is not accounted for, the fund value-added form of expression over time is not accounted for, and only With static viewpoint analysis electricity price cost.
2) the problem of, progressively decaying over time without the generating capacity for embodying photovoltaic plant.
3), consider that government subsidy uses construction subsidy patterns, and the Government Compensation mould of actually current photovoltaic plant The formula overwhelming majority is electricity price subsidy patterns.Before this, central and local government implement " plan of solar photoelectric Application in Building " and " golden sun demonstration project " uses construction subsidy patterns, and the current pattern is cancelled substantially.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method for considering the time value of money, use The problem of above-mentioned be previously mentioned is solved.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention to solve the technical problem is that：Consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price of the time value of money Cost Analysis Method, it is characterized in that, specifically include following steps：
1) photovoltaic plant electricity price cost analysis relevant rudimentary data, are extracted, basic data includes installed capacity of power station, design Service life, initially installation cost, one's own reserves and bank loan ratio, loan rate, repayment period, photovoltaic plant year operation Safeguard that the electric subsidy of degree, project base earnings ratio, photovoltaic plant year that rate, government are given are equivalent at full capacity, decline in photovoltaic module year Lapse rate；
2), founding mathematical models：
Calculate photovoltaic plant electricity price cost；
In formula, A is the one's own reserves in photovoltaic plant installation cost；B is the annual operation maintenance expense of photovoltaic plant；C is Photovoltaic plant is repaid capital with interest the amount of money every year；D is year power selling income；E is government's year subsidy；N is photovoltaic plant life cycle management Year；iCFor project base earnings ratio.
Further, in formula 1,
A=Civs×(1-Rloan)；
B=Cop=Civs×Rop；
D=P × Ci×Hfp×(1-iat)n-1×1000；
E=isub×Ci×Hfp×(1-iat)n-1×1000；
Wherein, CivsFor the installation cost of photovoltaic plant；RloanProvided a loan for photovoltaic plant and account for the ratio of gross investment；CopFor light The year operation maintenance expense of overhead utility；RopFor operation maintenance rate；CyFor the annual principal and interest amount of money for needing to refund；imonthFor loan Rate per month；M is moon number that need to refund；CiFor photovoltaic plant installed capacity；HfpFor the equivalent hourage at full capacity of photovoltaic plant year；P is Photovoltaic plant electricity price cost；iatFor photovoltaic module year attenuation rate；N is operation year；CtotalIt is total for photovoltaic plant life cycle management Input；EtotalFor the gross generation of photovoltaic plant life cycle management；isubFor the degree electricity subsidy acquired in photovoltaic plant.
Further, the circular of formula 1 is：
21) electricity price x1, is selected, formula 1 is substituted into；
If 22), calculating value on the left of formula, just, to select a value x2 for being less than x1, is substituted into formula 1, such as Now left side is still just, then to be recalculated again after the value for reducing x2 on the left of formula to fruit, for untill bearing on the left of formula；
23) if it is negative, the value x3 that selection one is more than x1, to calculate value on the left of formula, formula 1 is substituted into, such as Really now left side is still negative, then is recalculated again after the value for increasing x3 on the left of formula, untill formula left side is just.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
1), consideration fund of the present invention value-added effect over time, that is, consider time value on assets.
2), the generating capacity that photovoltaic plant is considered in the mathematical modeling designed by the present invention progressively decays over time The problem of.
3), the present invention considers actual government subsidy pattern, i.e. electricity price subsidy patterns.
The present invention is with dynamic viewpoint analysis electricity price cost, it is contemplated that time value on assets, photovoltaic power station power generation ability Over time progressively decay etc. factor, the dynamic model and algorithm of the photovoltaic plant cost electricity price derived make electricity price cost Estimation it is more accurate, so as to be referred to for project investment and government decision.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is photovoltaic plant life cycle cash flow diagram of the present invention；
In figure, A is the one's own reserves in photovoltaic plant installation cost；B is the annual operation maintenance expense of photovoltaic plant；C is Photovoltaic plant is repaid capital with interest the amount of money every year；D is year power selling income (electricity price at cost)；E is government's year subsidy；N is photovoltaic electric Stand life cycle management year (unit：a).
Embodiment
Current photovoltaic plant electricity price cost conventional analysis is as follows：
Photovoltaic plant overall cost of ownership includes project's earlier stage expense, cost of project implementation, project operation expense etc..Project is built If expense accounts for the major part of power station total investment expenses, mainly include power station hardware input and software input.Hardware facility has：Soil Ground requisition, public utility, solar module, inverter, support, power transmission and transforming equipment, data acquisition, cable and wire and lightning protection The projects such as ground connection；Software facility has：Engineering design, transport and storage, rigging up and debugging, acceptance of work etc..
In order to analyze electricity price cost, existing electricity price cost analysis is static analysis, is specially：
The static electricity price cost of photovoltaic plant can be obtained with the total input and gross generation of photovoltaic plant life cycle management, be pressed Calculated according to following formula：
In formula：P is photovoltaic plant electricity price cost；Ctotal is that photovoltaic plant life cycle management is always put into；Etotal is light The gross generation of overhead utility life cycle management.
For some photovoltaic plant, the gross investment of its life cycle management can be calculated as follows：
Ctotal=Civs+Cfn+Cop-Isub
In formula：Isub is total subsidy acquired in photovoltaic plant.
For some photovoltaic plant, its life cycle management total electricity Etotal is：
Etotal=Ci×Hfp×N×1000
In formula：Ci is photovoltaic plant installed capacity (unit：MW)；Hfp is that the equivalent hourage at full capacity of photovoltaic plant year is (single Position：h)；N is photovoltaic plant life cycle management year (unit：a).
In general, installation cost is directly proportional to installed capacity, then unit installation cost Cp is
Meanwhile, also there is proportional relation in the subsidy revenue of photovoltaic plant, can be according to the following formula cost with installed capacity Certain proportion：
Isub=Civs×Rsub
In formula：Isub is the subsidy revenue of photovoltaic plant；Rsub is the ratio that subsidy revenue accounts for installation cost.
Summary, it is considered to the unit cost of photovoltaic plant and unit installation cost, financial expenses, operation maintenance expense, Every year equivalent hourage at full capacity, life cycle management and government subsidy, then the mathematical modeling of photovoltaic plant electricity price cost see below formula：
But existing electricity price analysis does not account for time value on assets, photovoltaic power station power generation ability over time The progressively factor such as decay so that the result estimated is inaccurate, it is impossible to make effective reference.Therefore examined the invention provides one kind Consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of the time value of money, specifically include：
1) photovoltaic plant electricity price cost analysis relevant rudimentary data, are extracted, basic data includes installed capacity of power station, design Service life, initially installation cost, one's own reserves and bank loan ratio, loan rate, repayment period, photovoltaic plant year operation Safeguard that the electric subsidy of degree, project base earnings ratio, photovoltaic plant year that rate, government are given are equivalent at full capacity, decline in photovoltaic module year Lapse rate；
2), according to photovoltaic plant life cycle cash flow diagram as shown in Figure 1, founding mathematical models：
Calculate photovoltaic plant electricity price cost；
In formula, A is the one's own reserves in photovoltaic plant installation cost；B is the annual operation maintenance expense of photovoltaic plant；C is Photovoltaic plant is repaid capital with interest the amount of money every year；D is year power selling income (electricity price at cost)；E is government's year subsidy；N is photovoltaic electric Stand life cycle management year；iCFor project base earnings ratio.
In formula 1,
A=Civs×(1-Rloan)；
B=Cop=Civs×Rop；
D=P × Ci×Hfp×(1-iat)n-1×1000；
E=isub×Ci×Hfp×(1-iat)n-1×1000；
Wherein, CivsFor the installation cost of photovoltaic plant；RloanProvided a loan for photovoltaic plant and account for the ratio of gross investment；CopFor light The year operation maintenance expense of overhead utility；RopFor operation maintenance rate；CyFor the annual principal and interest amount of money (unit for needing to refund：Member)； imonthFor loan rate per month；M is moon number (unit that need to refund：Month)；CiFor photovoltaic plant installed capacity (unit：MW)；Hfp is light Equivalent hourage (the unit at full capacity of overhead utility year：h)；P is photovoltaic plant electricity price cost；iatFor photovoltaic module year attenuation rate；N is Operation year (unit：a)；CtotalAlways put into for photovoltaic plant life cycle management；EtotalFor the total of photovoltaic plant life cycle management Generated energy；isubFor the degree electricity subsidy (unit acquired in photovoltaic plant：Member/kWh).
The circular of formula 1 is：
21) electricity price x1, is selected, formula 1 is substituted into；
If 22), calculating value on the left of formula, just, to select a value x2 for being less than x1, is substituted into formula 1, such as Now left side is still just, then to be recalculated again after the value for reducing x2 on the left of formula to fruit, for untill bearing on the left of formula；
23) if it is negative, the value x3 that selection one is more than x1, to calculate value on the left of formula, formula 1 is substituted into, such as Really now left side is still negative, then is recalculated again after the value for increasing x3 on the left of formula, untill formula left side is just.
Although above-mentioned the embodiment of the present invention is described with reference to accompanying drawing, not to present invention protection model The limitation enclosed, on the basis of technical scheme, those skilled in the art need not pay creative work and can do The various modifications or deformation gone out are still within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (3)

1. consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of the time value of money, it is characterized in that, specifically include following steps：
1) photovoltaic plant electricity price cost analysis relevant rudimentary data, are extracted, basic data includes installed capacity of power station, design and used The time limit, initially installation cost, one's own reserves and bank loan ratio, loan rate, repayment period, photovoltaic plant year operation maintenance The electric subsidy of degree that rate, government are given, project base earnings ratio, photovoltaic plant are year equivalent at full capacity, photovoltaic module year attenuation rate；
2), founding mathematical models：
Calculate photovoltaic plant electricity price cost；
In formula, A is the one's own reserves in photovoltaic plant installation cost；B is the annual operation maintenance expense of photovoltaic plant；C is photovoltaic Power station is repaid capital with interest the amount of money every year；D is year power selling income；E is government's year subsidy；N is photovoltaic plant life cycle management year； iCFor project base earnings ratio.
2. the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method according to claim 1 for considering the time value of money, it is characterized in that, In formula 1,
A=Civs×(1-Rloan)；
B=Cop=Civs×Rop；
C = C y = C i v s × R l o a n × i m o n t h ( 1 + i m o n t h ) m ( 1 + i m o n t h ) m - 1 × 12 ;
D=P × Ci×Hfp×(1-iat)n-1×1000；
P = C t o t a l E t o t a l ;
E=isub×Ci×Hfp×(1-iat)n-1×1000；
Wherein, CivsFor the installation cost of photovoltaic plant；RloanProvided a loan for photovoltaic plant and account for the ratio of gross investment；CopFor photovoltaic electric The year operation maintenance expense stood；RopFor operation maintenance rate；CyFor the annual principal and interest amount of money for needing to refund；imonthFor loan monthly interest Rate；M is moon number that need to refund；CiFor photovoltaic plant installed capacity；HfpFor the equivalent hourage at full capacity of photovoltaic plant year；P is photovoltaic Power station electricity price cost；iatFor photovoltaic module year attenuation rate；N is operation year；CtotalAlways thrown for photovoltaic plant life cycle management Enter；EtotalFor the gross generation of photovoltaic plant life cycle management；isubFor the degree electricity subsidy acquired in photovoltaic plant.
3. the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method according to claim 2 for considering the time value of money, it is characterized in that, The circular of formula 1 is：
21) electricity price x1, is selected, formula 1 is substituted into；
If 22), calculating value on the left of formula, just, to select a value x2 for being less than x1, is substituted into formula 1, if this When left side still for just, then recalculated again after the value for reducing x2 on the left of formula, for untill negative on the left of the formula；
23) if it is negative, the value x3 that selection one is more than x1, to calculate value on the left of formula, formula 1 is substituted into, if this When left side still be negative, then recalculated again after the value for increasing x3 on the left of formula, untill formula left side is just.
CN201710156568.6A 2017-03-16 2017-03-16 Consider the photovoltaic plant electricity price Cost Analysis Method of the time value of money Pending CN106971263A (en)

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Cited By (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109636033A (en) * 2018-12-11 2019-04-16 远景能源（南京）软件技术有限公司 A kind of distributed photovoltaic project is generated power for their own use total rate of electricity prediction technique
CN109800980A (en) * 2019-01-11 2019-05-24 中城科新能源科技（北京）有限公司 A kind of business model method of family photovoltaic heating project construction
CN112366695A (en) * 2020-10-30 2021-02-12 国网冀北电力有限公司 Social cost-based new energy optimal proportion determination method and device
CN114022217A (en) * 2021-11-16 2022-02-08 广东电网有限责任公司 Distributed photovoltaic power generation investment income calculation method, device, equipment and medium
CN117273669A (en) * 2023-11-23 2023-12-22 中交二公局东萌工程有限公司 Engineering project cost management system

Cited By (8)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109636033A (en) * 2018-12-11 2019-04-16 远景能源（南京）软件技术有限公司 A kind of distributed photovoltaic project is generated power for their own use total rate of electricity prediction technique
CN109636033B (en) * 2018-12-11 2022-05-27 远景能源（南京）软件技术有限公司 Spontaneous self-use comprehensive electricity price prediction method for distributed photovoltaic project
CN109800980A (en) * 2019-01-11 2019-05-24 中城科新能源科技（北京）有限公司 A kind of business model method of family photovoltaic heating project construction
CN112366695A (en) * 2020-10-30 2021-02-12 国网冀北电力有限公司 Social cost-based new energy optimal proportion determination method and device
CN112366695B (en) * 2020-10-30 2023-10-24 国网冀北电力有限公司 Method and device for determining optimal duty ratio of new energy based on social cost
CN114022217A (en) * 2021-11-16 2022-02-08 广东电网有限责任公司 Distributed photovoltaic power generation investment income calculation method, device, equipment and medium
CN117273669A (en) * 2023-11-23 2023-12-22 中交二公局东萌工程有限公司 Engineering project cost management system
CN117273669B (en) * 2023-11-23 2024-02-23 中交二公局东萌工程有限公司 Engineering project cost management system

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Application publication date: 20170721