CN106960265A - Utilize the method that March, average air temperature value carried out Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast - Google Patents
Utilize the method that March, average air temperature value carried out Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Average air temperature value progress in March Tokyo oriental cherry is utilized the invention discloses a kind of（Cerasus yedoensis Matsum.）The method of Florescence forecast.Comprise the following steps：1st, since March 1 then, record Tokyo oriental cherry growth district works as daily mean temperature, continuous record one month；2nd, after the average air temperature value for calculating March, a linear equation Y=3.1228X+30.918 are substituted into.Can shifting to an earlier date more than 10 days forecast this areas using the present invention, Tokyo oriental cherry is bloomed phase beginning then, be visitor and relevant unit arrange to appreciate in good time cherry activity provides more accurately, the reference of science, the invention belongs to the basic subject technological innovation of natural science category.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of using the local method that March, average air temperature value carried out Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast, belong to
Plant ecological and phenological observation field.
Background technology
Oriental cherry is widely distributed at home as the famous ornamental plantation seeds of China, has to Guizhou point North gets Heilungkiang south
Cloth.There is the wild oriental cherry of kind more than 50 in the whole world according to statistics, and China accounts for 38 kinds.And accurately to answer the flower of certain oriental cherry in each department
Phase, is always the problem that gardener author is not yet captured.Because the oriental cherry florescence by it is many it is inherent, external factor is restricted, and is not
Timing.It shows：The different location oriental cherry florescence is different；The same place different Flowering Cherry Cultivars florescences are also different；It is exactly same
The same kind in place, is also not quite similar at the different year oriental cherry florescence.
Tokyo oriental cherry, as the representative of oriental cherry, is the Flowering Cherry Cultivars most liked by numerous citizen, and it is spent with morning at florescence, pure formula
Phase (first spend on posterior lobe), spend big pure white, fallen flowers neat and with fame spreading far and wide.With our neighbour Japan, it is conventionally believed that should
The flowers are in blossom for kind, just enters reward cherry period.But Tokyo oriental cherry is because of Distribution Area dimension, the difference of weather so that the florescence is each
There is obvious difference on ground, and because its full-bloom stage only has the time of one week or so, the characteristics of falling with Bian Kaibian, therefore have " oriental cherry
Seven days " say.Just so-called " ardent in full bloom, herioc descend slowly and lightly ", so oriental cherry just gives people the sensation of " coming and going hurriedly ".Add
Oriental cherry is to react very sensitive seeds to temperature as plum blossom, Flos micheliae Albae, if therefore can just can be accurate in the early spring then
The Florescence forecast of Tokyo oriental cherry is really made, with highly important directive significance.
The Annual growth cycle table (Qingdao) of the Tokyo oriental cherry of table 1.
The content of the invention
The technical problems to be solved by the invention are：Tokyo oriental cherry is carried out using local average air in March temperature value to bloom the beginning
The forecast of phase.In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is：
(1) since March 1 then, record Tokyo oriental cherry growth district works as daily mean temperature, continuous record one
Month.
(2) after the average air temperature value for calculating March, a linear equation Y=-3.1228X+30.918 is substituted into
Y in formula:Tokyo oriental cherry first flower in the April date.
X：Forecast temperature on average in March in time.
The application rule of this equation：Draw after Y value, integer-bit is the specific date, if the first digit after decimal point
More than 5, then the date add one day.
Temperature as described herein refers to the physical quantity of the cold and hot degree of air represented by meteorology, abbreviation temperature.Represented with DEG C
Degree Celsius.Observe within general one day 4 times, respectively 02,08,14,20 4 when time.The temperature value that the present invention is used is local meteorological
Department is using scientific instrument according to every degree/day measured value obtained by national specifications of surveys.
The present invention is by studying the oriental cherry phenological observation of continuous ten years of Qingdao Zhongshan Park Tokyo, and system establishes Tokyo
" the Qingdao database " of oriental cherry phenological observation, from phenology fancy horticulture angle, discovery temperature on average in March and Tokyo oriental cherry
There is obvious negative correlativing relation in the early flowering season, the new method of Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast is proposed by numerical analysis, is solved
The technical barrier of Florescence forecast is carried out to Tokyo oriental cherry.
Inventive principle and application value
Phenology is the plant (including crops), animal and environmental condition (weather, the hydrology, soil bar for studying nature
Part) mechanical periodicity between correlation science.As a traditional subject, phenology pays close attention to nature always, its mesh
Be exactly the knowledge of natural environment seasonal phenomenon change rule, with serve production and scientific research.Weight is increasingly subject in whole world change
Depending on today, phenology then more focuses on the research that climate change influences on these seasonal phenomenons and rule, and phenological phenomenon is not
Only reflect the change of natural season, and can show response and adaptation of the ecosystem to global environmental change, thus also by
It is considered as " language of the Nature " and " the diagnosis fingerprint " of whole world change.Phenology has shone under the support of modern science and technology
Go out new vitality, more and more important effect is played in natural basis research field.
The application value of the present invention：
The present invention tracks International Plant phenology scientific research development direction on the basis of the traditional phenology research of China is inherited,
Recorded using the phenological observation to Qingdao Tokyo this specific region of oriental cherry, specified plant kind in continuous 10 years, it is meteorological with Qingdao
Platform carries out interdisciplinary technological cooperation, and the synchronous winter for obtaining 10 years, spring daily meteorological, temperature actual measurement observation data are being carried out
On the basis of big data analysis, the rule of research Tokyo oriental cherry early flowering season and temperature Change, so as to formulate Florescence forecast equation, is solved
Determine the technical barrier of Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast.The invention belongs to the basic subject technological innovation of natural science category, continues
Qingdao ornamental plant phenological observation, the scientific research context of research, advance the subject innovation of plant phenology research field, accelerate
Basic research and the transfer conversion of application technology achievement, improve Qingdao gardens Competitiveness in Scientific Research.
Beneficial effects of the present invention：
Can shifting to an earlier date more than 10 days forecast this areas using the present invention, Tokyo oriental cherry is bloomed phase beginning then, is visitor and phase
Close unit arranges reward cherry activity to provide the more accurate, reference of science in good time, and the invention belongs to basis of natural science category
Section's technological innovation.
Illustrate embodiment
Fig. 1：Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast model.
Fig. 2：On March 29th, 2015《Qingdao evening paper》Oriental cherry April 8 is issued by the report just opened.
Fig. 3：On April 10th, 2015《Qingdao morning newspaper》, opening on oriental cherry florescence from April 8, entered full-bloom stage April 12.
Fig. 4：On April 12nd, 2015《Peninsula Urban Newspaper》Report：Opening on oriental cherry florescence from April 8, entered and contains on April 12
Florescence.
Embodiment
Embodiment 1
There is close correlation at the oriental cherry florescence with the height of temperature on average in March in the current year, through calculating Tokyo oriental cherry April
The negatively correlated rate of florescence index and temperature on average in March reaches 92.01%.The temperature bloomed first 40 days the florescence then is done sth. in advance or
It is delayed to have a direct impact, it is to influence the key factor of the Florescence forecast degree of accuracy.
This example is since March 1 then, and record Tokyo oriental cherry growth district works as daily mean temperature, continuous record one
Month.After the average air temperature value for calculating March, substituting into a linear equation Y=-3.1228X+30.918 result of calculations Y can be with
Florescence forecast is carried out as the first flower date of Tokyo oriental cherry in April.
Y in formula:Tokyo oriental cherry first flower in the April date
X：Forecast temperature on average in March in time
Embodiment 2
This example describes the technical scheme using embodiment 1 in detail using the Tokyo oriental cherry of Qingdao Zhongshan Park as Forecasting Object,
Carry out the implementation of Florescence forecast.
Natural phenology record is the most direct and most effective evidence of global environmental change, can be used to analysis environments key element
Change mechanism, is the important supplement to instrument record.The present invention was compiled first since 2007 using the time of 7 years
The long sequence phenological observation data of In The Area of Qingdao different zones oriental cherry florescence observation.Representative area is selected on this basis
What (Qingdao Zhongshan Park) Tokyo oriental cherry florescence observation Phenological data (2007 to 2013) was studied as the Qingdao oriental cherry florescence
Master data material.By big data analysis with after simulation trial, drawing research conclusion, then 2014,2015,2016 even
Forecast checking is carried out within continuous 3 years, and 10-15 days in advance issue Florescence forecasts (see Fig. 2) in major news media of Qingdao City, through reality
Rate of accuracy reached is examined to 98.2% (see Fig. 3-4) in border.The present invention has been filled up under the conditions of China's marine climate to Tokyo oriental cherry
The blank of florescence phenology observation.
Xiangshan meteorological observatory nearly in March, 3 is seen per daily temperature measured value statistical form in the Qingdao of table 2.
After the average air temperature value for calculating March, a linear equation Y=-3.1228X+30.918 is substituted into.
Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast checking computations in 2014：Y=-3.1228*8.08+30.918=5.69 (i.e. 5 days to 6 April
Day).
Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast checking computations in 2015：Y=-3.1228*7.206+30.918=8.42 (i.e. April 8).
Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast checking computations in 2016：Y=-3.1228*7.274+30.918=8.20 (i.e. April 8).
The actual phase beginning checking (being shown in Table 3) of blooming of Tokyo oriental cherry then：2014 are April 5, are influenceed by Warm Winter temperature, than
The last week opening is proposed throughout the year, is the last decade individual example that the flowers are in blossom earliest.
April is 8 within 2016 2015, than opening in 4 days in advance throughout the year.
Qingdao Tokyo oriental cherry florescence phenology observational record statistics is shown in Table 3
Table 3：Qingdao Tokyo oriental cherry florescence phenology observational record statistical form
| Botanical name | Observation place | Observe the time | Bloom phase beginning | Bloom peak period | Bloom latter stage |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2007 | April 9 | April 12 | April 22 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2008 | April 12 | April 14 | April 22 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2009 | April 8 | April 12 | April 21 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2010 | April 19 | April 23 | May 6 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2011 | April 14 | April 18 | April 26 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2012 | April 17 | April 20 | April 27 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2013 | April 15 | April 18 | April 27 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2014 | April 5 | April 8 | April 17 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2015 | April 8 | April 12 | April 23 |
| Tokyo oriental cherry | Oriental cherry main road | 2016 | April 8 | April 10 | April 21 |
Qingdao Tokyo oriental cherry is observed after the decade-long phenological period, and observation index includes the bud expanding stage of oriental cherry, bud
Shaping period, phase beginning of blooming, peak period of blooming, bloom latter stage；The Qingdao meteorological observatory of each phenological period actual measurement of correspondence sees Xiangshan observation station and worked as
Daily mean temperature；The year 2,3, April survey temperature average value, moon temperature average value daily；Bloom 5 degree before phase beginning with
Upper active accumulated temperature, more than 5 degree effective accumulated temperature etc..Tokyo oriental cherry phenological observation " Qingdao database " and actual measurement temperature by foundation
Value indices are mutually related big data analysis, can shift to an earlier date and forecast within more than 10 days blooming phase beginning for Tokyo oriental cherry then.
Certainly, described above is not limitation of the present invention, and the present invention is also not limited to the example above, the art
Those of ordinary skill, in the essential scope of the present invention, the change made, remodeling, addition or replace, should all belong to of the invention
Protection domain.
Claims (1)
1. utilize the method that March, average air temperature value carried out Tokyo oriental cherry Florescence forecast, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
（1）Since March 1 then, record Tokyo oriental cherry growth district works as daily mean temperature, continuous record one month；
（2）After the average air temperature value for calculating March, a linear equation Y=-3.1228X+30.918 is substituted into；
Y in formula:Tokyo oriental cherry first flower in the April date；
X：Temperature on average in March in time is forecast,
The application rule of this equation：Draw after Y value, integer-bit is the specific date, if the first digit is more than after decimal point
5, then the date add one day.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109345016A (en) * | 2018-09-30 | 2019-02-15 | 成都信息工程大学 | Wisdom serve for agriculture system and method based on Fructus Forsythiae prediction of flowering period |
| CN110276482A (en) * | 2019-06-03 | 2019-09-24 | 宁波市气象台 | A kind of forecasting procedure of plant flowers and fruits beginning and ending time breeding time |
| CN113348943A (en) * | 2021-06-17 | 2021-09-07 | 宁波市奉化区气象局 | Method for determining cold demand and heat demand of peach trees based on meteorological data |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105608503A (en) * | 2015-12-15 | 2016-05-25 | 杜耀维 | Lilac flowering phase prediction method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105608503A (en) * | 2015-12-15 | 2016-05-25 | 杜耀维 | Lilac flowering phase prediction method |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 饶红欣等: "日本樱花花期观测与规律分析", 《经济林研究》 * |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109345016A (en) * | 2018-09-30 | 2019-02-15 | 成都信息工程大学 | Wisdom serve for agriculture system and method based on Fructus Forsythiae prediction of flowering period |
| CN110276482A (en) * | 2019-06-03 | 2019-09-24 | 宁波市气象台 | A kind of forecasting procedure of plant flowers and fruits beginning and ending time breeding time |
| CN110276482B (en) * | 2019-06-03 | 2020-02-21 | 宁波市气象台 | Method for forecasting starting and ending time of growth period of plant flowers and fruits |
| CN113348943A (en) * | 2021-06-17 | 2021-09-07 | 宁波市奉化区气象局 | Method for determining cold demand and heat demand of peach trees based on meteorological data |
| CN113348943B (en) * | 2021-06-17 | 2022-12-09 | 宁波市奉化区气象局 | Method for determining cold demand and heat demand of peach trees based on meteorological data |
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Application publication date: 20170718 |