CN106919789A - The norm of nonparametric kernel density of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value determines method - Google Patents
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- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 18
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- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 36
- 230000035945 sensitivity Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 22
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 8
- 238000007689 inspection Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 7
- 241000894007 species Species 0.000 claims description 52
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 16
- 239000003344 environmental pollutant Substances 0.000 claims description 9
- 231100000719 pollutant Toxicity 0.000 claims description 9
- 241000196324 Embryophyta Species 0.000 claims description 5
- 231100000111 LD50 Toxicity 0.000 claims description 5
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- 238000001276 Kolmogorov–Smirnov test Methods 0.000 claims description 2
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- 238000010561 standard procedure Methods 0.000 claims description 2
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- 229910052753 mercury Inorganic materials 0.000 description 7
- 229910052793 cadmium Inorganic materials 0.000 description 6
- BDOSMKKIYDKNTQ-UHFFFAOYSA-N cadmium atom Chemical compound [Cd] BDOSMKKIYDKNTQ-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 6
- 241001465754 Metazoa Species 0.000 description 4
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 4
- 238000002474 experimental method Methods 0.000 description 4
- 239000013505 freshwater Substances 0.000 description 4
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 4
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 3
- 231100000369 acute toxicity data Toxicity 0.000 description 3
- QVGXLLKOCUKJST-UHFFFAOYSA-N atomic oxygen Chemical compound [O] QVGXLLKOCUKJST-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 3
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 description 3
- 230000001684 chronic effect Effects 0.000 description 3
- 229910052760 oxygen Inorganic materials 0.000 description 3
- 239000001301 oxygen Substances 0.000 description 3
- 239000002245 particle Substances 0.000 description 3
- 229920006395 saturated elastomer Polymers 0.000 description 3
- 238000012612 static experiment Methods 0.000 description 3
- 241000208340 Araliaceae Species 0.000 description 2
- 235000005035 Panax pseudoginseng ssp. pseudoginseng Nutrition 0.000 description 2
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- 231100000419 toxicity Toxicity 0.000 description 2
- 230000001988 toxicity Effects 0.000 description 2
- 241000251468 Actinopterygii Species 0.000 description 1
- 102000004317 Lyases Human genes 0.000 description 1
- 108090000856 Lyases Proteins 0.000 description 1
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- 231100000403 acute toxicity Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 150000001875 compounds Chemical class 0.000 description 1
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- 238000003912 environmental pollution Methods 0.000 description 1
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- 239000002574 poison Substances 0.000 description 1
- 231100000614 poison Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 235000015170 shellfish Nutrition 0.000 description 1
- 231100000331 toxic Toxicity 0.000 description 1
- 230000002588 toxic effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 231100001234 toxic pollutant Toxicity 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the determination method of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value, specifically disclose a kind of norm of nonparametric kernel density of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value and determine method, the method includes：The screening of step one, toxicity data, step 2, the selection of gaussian kernel function window width, step 3, the calculating of the gaussian kernel function of toxicity data, the nonparametric probability that step 4, toxicity data are based on the species sensitivity distribution of gaussian kernel function determines；The inspection of step 5, model, and step 6, the determination of ambient concentration limit value.The present invention is improved species sensitivity distribution curve method approximating method, due to after improvement can unbiased esti-mator toxicity data well distribution characteristics, and accurate ambient concentration limit value is obtained, such that it is able to realize solving the effect that unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal Plays determine.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the determination method of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value, and in particular to unexpected environmental accident is met an urgent need
The norm of nonparametric kernel density for disposing limit value determines method.
Background technology
China is in industrialization and urbanization fast development phase, and unexpected environmental accident takes place frequently, due to burst water environment thing
The complexity and uncertainty of part characteristic contamination, current national standard cannot fully meet the emergent place of burst water environment event
Put and damage the demand of identification.After accident occurs, in the case of, there is no timely and effective being located in without relevant criterion
Put, serious environmental hazard can be caused；Opposite, in the missing of relevant criterion, in the case of blindly quoting unreasonable standard, can
Can cause excessively emergent, cause too high cost of disposal and unnecessarily secondary environmental pollution.Therefore unexpected environmental accident should
The science of pollutant target limit value determines that method is the active demand of environmental management in anxious disposal.
At present, risk assessment is carried out based on species sensitivity distribution method, so that it is determined that the technology of pollutant limit value is extensive
The method of accreditation.But species sensitivity distribution method using parameter model when being fitted, there is stronger basic assumption to data,
The usually gap larger with physical presence, substantial amounts of research also indicates that, actual acquisition to toxicity data be typically off it is set
Assuming that statistical distribution, and not to the blanket parameter distribution of all toxicity datas.Nonparametric probability is not required to
Prior information is wanted, overall distribution and its parameter is not relied on, it is more loose to data limitation, structure is obtained by direct estimation and is closed
System, is capable of the distribution characteristics of unbiased esti-mator data well.
At present in unexpected environmental accident is tackled, the ambient concentration of some pollutants does not have corresponding national standard, is answering
Which kind of degree is disposed into anxious disposal, realizes which kind of ambient concentration target just has no basis.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is directed to the existing shortcoming of current species sensitivity distribution parametric technique modeling, there is provided a kind of
The nonparametric technique of construction Species sensitivity distribution curve, so as to set up be estimated using the norm of nonparametric kernel density based on gaussian kernel function
Meter method assesses risk, and then determines ambient concentration limit value, solves the technology that unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal Plays determine.
The technical scheme is that：The norm of nonparametric kernel density of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value determines method, bag
Include following steps：
The screening of step one, toxicity data：Domestic and international toxicological data bank and bibliographic data base are retrieved, pollutant is selected different
The toxicity data of species, according to accuracy and reliability that experimental data is obtained, screening meets the toxicity data of standard method；
The selection of step 2, gaussian kernel function window width：Reasonable window width hnSelection by the precision of direct relation kernel estimates,
Nonparametric probability is built using standard gaussian kernel function,
Using formulaThe window width of gaussian kernel function is obtained,
WhereinIt is the standard deviation of toxicity data, n is total Number of Species；
The calculating of step 3, the gaussian kernel function of toxicity data：Different kernel functions represents distance each sample point pair of distribution
The different situations of density contribution；According to formulaGaussian kernel function is calculated, wherein μ is the expectation of toxicity data；
The nonparametric probability that step 4, toxicity data are based on the species sensitivity distribution of gaussian kernel function determines；
The inspection of step 5, model：Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) inspections and the joint survey of posteriori check
Method；
Wherein, posteriori check refers to the difference between qualitative assessment probabilistic model and data observation distribution, using root mean square
Error (root mean square errors, RMSE) and error sum of squares (sum of squares for error, SSE)
As posteriori check index；
The determination of step 6, ambient concentration limit value：The function zoning and reality of water body are occurred according to burst water environment event
Protection needs, it is determined that needing the kind multiple targets of aquatile to be protected, calculates dirty using the species sensitivity distribution model for building
Contaminate the concentration limit of thing.
Further, the screening of the toxicity data meets following condition：
1) toxicity data is the toxicity data that flowing water is obtained in fact, but when toxicity data shortage, it is possible to use half is quiet
The toxicity data that the toxicity data and static experiment that state experiment is obtained are obtained；
2) temperature is ensured in the most suitable growth temperature range of tested species, dissolved oxygen concentration is in its saturated concentration
60%~105%, particle concentration is no more than 20mg/L, and organic carbon concentration is no more than 5mg/L；
If 3) urgency of same species toxicity data/chronic ratio difference more than 10, needs to reject.
Further, the species are dispersed species representative in China's water environment, and species include local intrinsic thing
Kind, and be originally external, but now widely distributed species.
Further, the toxicity data includes LC50 and EC50.
Further, in the case that same species have multiple toxicity datas, the geometry of its all effective concentration data is taken
Average value, referred to as plants average acuity value (species mean acute value, SMAVs).
Further, what the step 4 toxicity data determined concretely comprises the following steps：Assuming that x1,x2,L xnIt is overall species poison
Property the sample of data X independent same distributions n, probability density function f (x) of X is unknown, and the nonparametric kernel of species sensitivity distribution is close
Degree is estimated as
In formula, K (x) is Borel measurable functions, referred to as window or kernel function on set of real numbers R；
hn>0, referred to as window width, be one with n relevant smoothing parameter, meet n → ∞, hnWhen → 0,
Further, checked by the K-S, work as P>When 0.05, it is believed that the model profile of foundation is set up, K-S inspection systems
Metering is smaller, and P values are bigger, and the explanation goodness of fit is higher.
The present invention is bent using the model construction species sensitivity distribution of the nonparametric probability based on gaussian kernel function
Line, carries out risk assessment.
The risk evaluation result that the present invention is obtained using nonparametric kernel density model, for different protection aquatic ecosystems
Goal situation under, realize the determination of corresponding ambient concentration limit value during unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal.Solve prominent
The problem of shortage of standard during hair environment event emergency disposal.
The present invention is improved species sensitivity distribution curve method approximating method, using based on the non-of gaussian kernel function
Parameter Density Estimator analyzes species toxicity data, and further determines that ambient concentration limit value.Due to can be well after improvement
The distribution characteristics of unbiased esti-mator toxicity data, and accurate ambient concentration limit value is obtained, such that it is able to realize solving outburst surroundings
The effect that event emergency disposal Plays determine.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1, the contrast of inorganic mercury species sensitivity distribution of nonparametric probability under different window widths；
Fig. 2, the species sensitivity distribution model of the nonparametric probability of inorganic mercury is quick with the species of its normal distribution
The contrast of Moves China model.
Specific embodiment
Presently preferred embodiments of the present invention is described in detail below so that advantages and features of the invention can be easier to by
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that apparent clearly being defined so as to be made to protection scope of the present invention.
Wherein,
LC50：Lethal Concentration 50, half lethal concentration/LC50, refer in animal acute toxicity
In experiment, the TC for making animal subject half dead.
EC50：Concentration for 50%of maximal effect, half-maximal effect concentration, referring to cause
The concentration of 50% ceiling effect.
SMAVs：Species mean acute value, plant average acuity value, and same species have multiple toxicity datas
In the case of, take the geometrical mean of its all effective concentration data.
Gaussian kernel function：Refer toWith property
Nonparametric probability method：Refer to after given sample, only from existing sample data, using cuclear density
Estimation of the method for Function Estimation to its unknown population density function.
Embodiment 1
The norm of nonparametric kernel density of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value determines method, comprises the following steps：
(1) mercury (Hg) is important heavy metal, is also concerned toxic pollutant, it and different insoluble cell knots
The affinity of the ligand binding of structure is all very strong, especially atomic nucleus and lyase body portion, therefore its toxicity is very big.Hg is natural
It is main in water body to exist with inorganic forms, mainly collect Hg2+To the toxicity data of Chinese fresh-water aquatic organisms.Toxicity data comes from
EPA ECOTOX databases (http://cfpub.epa.gov/ecotox/) and middle National IP Network (http://www/
Cnki/net/ the document) included.The Hg for filtering out2+Compound acute toxicity data totally 90 species, wherein 9 kinds of plant, vertebra
33 kinds of animal, including 26 kinds of fish, 7 kinds of amphibian animal；48 kinds of invertebrate, including 25 kinds of shell-fish, other invertebrates
23 kinds.
Wherein, the screening of toxicity data meets following condition：
1) toxicity data is the toxicity data that flowing water is obtained in fact, but when toxicity data shortage, it is possible to use half is quiet
The toxicity data that the toxicity data and static experiment that state experiment is obtained are obtained；
2) temperature is ensured in the most suitable growth temperature range of tested species, dissolved oxygen concentration is in its saturated concentration
60%~105%, particle concentration is no more than 20mg/L, and organic carbon concentration is no more than 5mg/L；
If 3) urgency of same species toxicity data/chronic ratio difference more than 10, needs to reject.
(2) nonparametric kernel is built to the acute toxicity data of the inorganic mercury of Chinese fresh-water aquatic organisms using gaussian kernel function
The species sensitivity distribution of density estimation, according to the empirical equation of window widthWindow width h=0.3678 is calculated, its
InIt is the standard deviation of toxicity data, n is total Number of Species.
Fig. 1 is the contrast of the species sensitivity distribution of nonparametric probability under different window widths.
(3) calculating of the gaussian kernel function of toxicity data：After determining the window width of gaussian kernel function, gaussian kernel function is
(4) thus, it is determined that the species sensitivity distribution model of the nonparametric probability of inorganic mercury is
Fig. 2 is quick with the species of its normal distribution for the species sensitivity distribution model of the nonparametric probability of inorganic mercury
The contrast of Moves China model.
(5) model testing is carried out, the K-S test statistics of Density Estimator model is that 0.0516, P values are 0.8974, after
It is 0.0233 and 0.0488 to test test rating RMSE and SSE.
(6) function zoning and real protection needs of water body are occurred according to burst water environment event, uses the non-ginseng for building
The pollutant concentration limit value that number pdf model is calculated at the risk of mercury 5% and 10% is respectively 2.14 and 4.80 μ gL-1。
Embodiment 2
The norm of nonparametric kernel density of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value determines method, comprises the following steps：
(1) cadmium (Cd) is toxic heavy-metal elements, and United Nations Environment Programme was set to priority pollutant in 1974,
Its toxicity may be relevant with the similitude of Zn with it, collects Cd2+To the toxicity data of Chinese fresh-water aquatic organisms.Toxicity data
From EPA ECOTOX databases (http://cfpub.epa.gov/ecotox/) and middle National IP Network (http://
Www/cnki/net/ the document) included.The toxicity data scope of the Cd for filtering out is larger, is 0.04~301373.17, standard
Difference reaches 38576.32, therefore logarithmetics treatment is done to initial data to reduce the otherness between data, is put down with reaching data
Sliding effect.
Wherein, the screening of toxicity data meets following condition：
1) toxicity data is the toxicity data that flowing water is obtained in fact, but when toxicity data shortage, it is possible to use half is quiet
The toxicity data that the toxicity data and static experiment that state experiment is obtained are obtained；
2) temperature is ensured in the most suitable growth temperature range of tested species, dissolved oxygen concentration is in its saturated concentration
60%~105%, particle concentration is no more than 20mg/L, and organic carbon concentration is no more than 5mg/L；
If 3) urgency of same species toxicity data/chronic ratio difference more than 10, needs to reject.
Table 1 is the information after the relative species toxicity data logarithmetics treatment of cadmium.
Data after the relative species toxicity data logarithmetics treatment of the cadmium of table 1.
(2) norm of nonparametric kernel density is built to the acute toxicity data of the cadmium of Chinese fresh-water aquatic organisms using gaussian kernel function
The species sensitivity distribution of estimation, according to the empirical equation of window widthWindow width h=0.564 is calculated, whereinFor
The standard deviation of toxicity data, n is total Number of Species.
(3) calculating of the gaussian kernel function of toxicity data：After determining the window width of gaussian kernel function, gaussian kernel function is
(4) thus, it is determined that the species sensitivity distribution model of the nonparametric probability of cadmium is
(5) carry out model testing, the K-S inspection P values of Density Estimator model are 0.654, posteriori check index RMSE with
SSE is 0.0370 and 0.0863.
(6) function zoning and real protection needs of water body are occurred according to burst water environment event, uses the non-ginseng for building
The pollutant concentration limit value that number pdf model is calculated at the risk of cadmium 5% and 10% is respectively 3.39 and 19.65 μ g
L-1。
Above-mentioned detailed description is directed to illustrating for one of them possible embodiments of the present invention, and the embodiment is simultaneously not used to
The scope of the claims of the invention is limited, all equivalence enforcements or change without departing from carried out by the present invention are intended to be limited solely by the technology of the present invention
In the range of scheme.
Claims (6)
1. the norm of nonparametric kernel density of unexpected environmental accident emergency disposal limit value determines method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
The screening of step one, toxicity data：Domestic and international toxicological data bank and bibliographic data base are retrieved, pollutant different plant species are selected
Toxicity data, according to accuracy and reliability that experimental data is obtained, screening meets the toxicity data of standard method；
The selection of step 2, gaussian kernel function window width：Reasonable window width hnSelection by the precision of direct relation kernel estimates,
Nonparametric probability is built using standard gaussian kernel function,
Using formulaThe window width of gaussian kernel function is obtained,
WhereinIt is the standard deviation of toxicity data, n is total Number of Species；
The calculating of step 3, the gaussian kernel function of toxicity data：Different kernel functions represents distance each sample point of distribution to density
The different situations of contribution；According to formulaGaussian kernel function is calculated, wherein μ is the expectation of toxicity data；
The nonparametric probability that step 4, toxicity data are based on the species sensitivity distribution of gaussian kernel function determines；
The inspection of step 5, model：Using Kolmogorov-Smirnov inspections and the joint survey method of posteriori check；
Wherein, posteriori check refers to the difference between qualitative assessment probabilistic model and data observation distribution, using root-mean-square error
RMSE and error sum of squares SSE are used as posteriori check index；
The determination of step 6, ambient concentration limit value：The function zoning and real protection of water body are occurred according to burst water environment event
Need, it is determined that needing the kind multiple targets of aquatile to be protected, pollutant is calculated using the species sensitivity distribution model for building
Concentration limit.
2. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the species are representative wide in China's water environment
Fabric, species include local intrinsic species, and are originally external, but now widely distributed species.
3. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the toxicity data includes LC50 and EC50.
4. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that in the case that same species have multiple toxicity datas, take
The geometrical mean of its all effective concentration data, referred to as plants average acuity value SMAVs.
5. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that what the step 4 toxicity data determined concretely comprises the following steps：
Assuming that x1,x2,L xnIt is the sample of overall species toxicity data X independent same distributions n, probability density function f (x) of X is unknown,
The nonparametric probability of species sensitivity distribution is
In formula, K (x) is Borel measurable functions, referred to as window or kernel function on set of real numbers R；
hn>0, referred to as window width, be one with n relevant smoothing parameter, meet n → ∞, hnWhen → 0,
6. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that checked by the K-S, work as P>When 0.05, it is believed that set up
Model profile set up, K-S test statistics is smaller, and P values are bigger to illustrate that the goodness of fit is higher.
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| CN107392380A (en) * | 2017-07-26 | 2017-11-24 | 中国环境科学研究院 | A kind of system for fresh-water aquatic organisms water quality reference prediction |
| CN110458436A (en) * | 2019-08-02 | 2019-11-15 | 北京理工大学 | A kind of small sample verification method of priming system reliability index |
| CN111239346A (en) * | 2020-03-26 | 2020-06-05 | 泛测（北京）环境科技有限公司 | Method and device for identifying pollution event in air quality monitoring |
| CN112633790A (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2021-04-09 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | Method for defining accident response boundary under fire accident situation of radioactive substance transportation |
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107392380A (en) * | 2017-07-26 | 2017-11-24 | 中国环境科学研究院 | A kind of system for fresh-water aquatic organisms water quality reference prediction |
| CN110458436A (en) * | 2019-08-02 | 2019-11-15 | 北京理工大学 | A kind of small sample verification method of priming system reliability index |
| CN110458436B (en) * | 2019-08-02 | 2022-02-01 | 北京理工大学 | Small sample verification method for initiating explosive device reliability index |
| CN111239346A (en) * | 2020-03-26 | 2020-06-05 | 泛测（北京）环境科技有限公司 | Method and device for identifying pollution event in air quality monitoring |
| CN112633790A (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2021-04-09 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | Method for defining accident response boundary under fire accident situation of radioactive substance transportation |
| CN112633790B (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2022-05-20 | 中国辐射防护研究院 | Method for defining accident response boundary under situation of radioactive substance transportation fire accident |
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