CN106878952A - The Forecasting Methodology and device of area people quantity - Google Patents
The Forecasting Methodology and device of area people quantity Download PDFInfo
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- CN106878952A CN106878952A CN201710166996.7A CN201710166996A CN106878952A CN 106878952 A CN106878952 A CN 106878952A CN 201710166996 A CN201710166996 A CN 201710166996A CN 106878952 A CN106878952 A CN 106878952A
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W4/00—Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
- H04W4/02—Services making use of location information
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W24/00—Supervisory, monitoring or testing arrangements
- H04W24/06—Testing, supervising or monitoring using simulated traffic
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W24/00—Supervisory, monitoring or testing arrangements
- H04W24/08—Testing, supervising or monitoring using real traffic
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W24/00—Supervisory, monitoring or testing arrangements
- H04W24/10—Scheduling measurement reports ; Arrangements for measurement reports
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W4/00—Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
- H04W4/02—Services making use of location information
- H04W4/021—Services related to particular areas, e.g. point of interest [POI] services, venue services or geofences
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W16/00—Network planning, e.g. coverage or traffic planning tools; Network deployment, e.g. resource partitioning or cells structures
- H04W16/22—Traffic simulation tools or models
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses the Forecasting Methodology and device of a kind of area people quantity.The method includes：Obtain the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount；The base station monitors value is modified according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area determine the correction value of the target area personnel amount；Forecast model according to the correction value and pre-generatmg determines the target area personnel amount predicted value.The embodiment of the present invention is by using above-mentioned technical proposal, influence of the cataclysm of target area number of users to the area people quantitative forecast can be avoided, improve the accuracy of target area personnel amount prediction, ensure that target area personnel amount matches with operation maintenance personnel quantity, reduce the generation of the contingency that target area is excessively caused due to number of users, so as on the premise of target area user's personal safety is ensured, reduce the waste of target area manpower and materials.
Description
Technical field
The present embodiments relate to technical field of information processing, more particularly to a kind of area people quantity Forecasting Methodology and
Device.
Background technology
As China's politics, economic, culture are increasingly active with social activities, such as recreation, red-letter day celebration, greatly
The large-scale activity of type exhibition and competitive sports etc has become the important carrier promoted economic development with cultural exchanges.With big
There is increasing for security incident quantity in the expansion and large-scale activity of the scale and quantity of type activity, colony has turned into city safely
One of Important Problems of public safety concern.
Mobile phone signaling data is the mode that urban area stream of people prediction and early warning are commonly used, and pedestrian is entered by mobile phone signaling data
Stream prediction and early warning can not be limited by region property, either normality monitor area, interim deploy to ensure effective monitoring and control of illegal activities region or zone of ignorance,
As long as the region is located under the mobile network of the operators such as mobile, UNICOM or telecommunications covering, mobile phone signaling data can be used
The stream of people in the region is predicted and early warning.But, inventor realize it is of the invention during find prior art exist
Following technological deficiency：Cannot be matched completely due to the physical location of carrier network coverage and actual area, signal skew,
Signal disturb or the factor such as base station location adjustment presence, by operator base station count the mobile phone signaling data for obtaining often with
There is larger difference in its True Data, it is impossible to truly reflect the personnel amount in the region.
The content of the invention
In view of this, the embodiment of the present invention provides the Forecasting Methodology and device of a kind of area people quantity, existing to solve
The low technical problem of personnel amount statistics accuracy rate in technology.
In a first aspect, a kind of Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity is the embodiment of the invention provides, including：
Obtain the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount；
The base station monitors value is modified to determine according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area
State the correction value of target area personnel amount；
Forecast model according to the correction value and pre-generatmg determines the target area personnel amount predicted value.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of prediction meanss of area people quantity, including：
Monitor value acquisition module, the base station monitors value for obtaining target area personnel amount；
Correction value determining module, for according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area to the base station monitors
Value is modified to determine the correction value of the target area personnel amount；
Predicted value determining module, for determining the target area people according to the forecast model of the correction value and pre-generatmg
Member's quantitative forecast value.
The technical scheme of estimation range personnel amount provided in an embodiment of the present invention, obtains the base of target area personnel amount
Stand monitor value, use the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in target area to be modified accessed base station monitors value to determine
The correction value of target area personnel amount, the forecast model according to identified correction value and pre-generatmg determines target area personnel
The predicted value of quantity.The embodiment of the present invention can avoid the cataclysm of target area number of users by using above-mentioned technical proposal
Influence to the area people quantitative forecast, improves the accuracy of target area personnel amount prediction, it is ensured that target area personnel
Quantity matches with operation maintenance personnel quantity, reduces the generation of the contingency that target area is excessively caused due to number of users,
So as on the premise of target area user's personal safety is ensured, reduce the waste of target area manpower and materials.
Brief description of the drawings
By the detailed description made to non-limiting example made with reference to the following drawings of reading, it is of the invention other
Feature, objects and advantages will become more apparent upon：
Fig. 1 is a kind of schematic flow sheet of the Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention one is provided；
Fig. 2 is a kind of schematic flow sheet of the Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention two is provided；
Fig. 3 is a kind of structured flowchart of the prediction meanss of area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention three is provided.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.It is understood that this place is retouched
The specific embodiment stated is used only for explaining the present invention, rather than limitation of the invention.It also should be noted that, in order to just
Part rather than full content related to the present invention is illustrate only in description, accompanying drawing.
Embodiment one
The embodiment of the present invention one provides a kind of Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity.The method can be by area people quantity
Prediction meanss perform, wherein the device can be realized by hardware and/or software, can be typically integrated in the pre- measurement of power of personnel amount
In the system or server of energy.Fig. 1 is that the flow of the Forecasting Methodology of the area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention one is provided is illustrated
Figure, as shown in figure 1, the method includes：
S110, the base station monitors value for obtaining target area personnel amount.
Wherein, target area can flexibly be set as needed, only need base station to get the area people quantity
Monitor value.What is occurred in view of the practicality being predicted to target area personnel amount and because number is excessive steps on
The property in the region of security incident such as step on, target area is preferably openr non-residential areas region, for example, target area can be with
It is the regions such as the host city or tourist attractions of the large-scale outdoor activities such as square.In view of the base station prediction of target area personnel amount
The relative precision of value, target area is unsuitable too small, for example, target area can be the covering model with some or multiple base stations
Enclose corresponding region.
Usually, base station monitors value can be personnel amount in target area that base station monitors corresponding with target area are arrived
Monitor value.Exemplary, base station can determine mesh by the quantity of mobile terminal in monitoring objective region or by GPS location
Mark the base station monitors value in region.Mobile phone signal in by monitoring objective region determines the monitoring of personnel amount in target area
During value, the SIM (Subscriber that the mobile phone signal monitored by base station is usually installed in the mobile phone
Identification Module, client identification module) signal, and a base station is typically only capable to monitor and its frequency range pair
The mobile phone signal answered, e.g., the base station that commmunication company sets up can only monitor that commmunication company uses the mobile phone signal of communications band,
The base station that CHINAUNICOM sets up can only monitor that CHINAUNICOM uses the mobile phone signal of communications band, it is preferred, therefore, that target
The target that the monitor value of area people quantity can be monitored by each operator (movement, UNICOM and telecommunications etc.) corresponding base station
Area people quantity sum.
In the present embodiment, the base station monitors value of acquired target area personnel amount can be target area current time
Base station monitors value in the base station monitors value or target area preset number of days of personnel amount, such that it is able to current according to target area
Base station monitors value in the base station monitors value or target area preset number of days of moment personnel amount obtains current target region
Interior personnel amount predicted value, and determined to work as according to the predicted value of the personnel amount in resulting current target region people
The quantity of attendant needed for preceding object time target area (such as traffic police, the stream of people dredge personnel, tour personnel)；Can also be
The base station monitors value of target area history personnel amount (such as volume of the flow of passengers), such as can be the base station monitors in target area former years
Value, the predicted value of the personnel amount of target area in this year, and root are determined so as to the variation tendency of the base station monitors value according to former years
It is predicted that value determines the communal facility quantity of required construction in target area in this year.Preferably, acquired target area personnel
The base station monitors value of quantity can be the base station monitors value of target area current time personnel amount, to realize being tieed up in target area
The reasonability of personnel amount is protected, is ensureing to avoid the waste of manpower and materials in target area on the premise of the personal safety of personnel.
Exemplary, when the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount is obtained, the base station that can first obtain each operator is supervised
The sub- monitor value of the target area personnel amount for measuring, then by acquired each sub- monitor value addition etc. to target area personnel
The base station monitors value of quantity.
S120, the base station monitors value is modified with true according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area
The correction value of the fixed target area personnel amount.
Wherein, the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in target area can be a fixation completely irrelevant with base station monitors value
Value, such as 4000,5000 or other numerical value；Can also be different and different with the moment corresponding to base station monitors value or date
On-fixed value, for example, different personnel amount theoretical values can be set up for different date different periods, such as by 0：00-8：00
Personnel amount theoretical value be set to 4000, by 8：00-17：00 personnel amount theoretical value is set to 4500, by 17：00-24：
00 personnel amount theoretical value is set to 5000, etc., is not restricted herein.
In the present embodiment, when being modified to base station monitors value, can be theoretical by the corresponding personnel amount in target area
Addition, subtraction, multiplication, division or other computings are carried out between value and base station monitors value to be modified base station monitors value, and
Using operation result as target area personnel amount correction value.In view of identified correction value accuracy and practicality with
And the simplicity of computing, it is preferred that using the difference of the base station monitors value and the personnel amount theoretical value as the target
The correction value of area people quantity.For example, it is assumed that the base station monitors value of current target area people quantity is 18000, when
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value 5000 in preceding moment target area, the then correction value of current target area people quantity
For：1800-5000=13000.
S130, the target area personnel amount predicted value is determined according to the forecast model of the correction value and pre-generatmg.
In the present embodiment, forecast model may or may not be target area and/or current time distinctive forecast model,
I.e., it is possible to only set a forecast model, the forecast model is general in each region and/or day part；Can also be different zones
Different periods are respectively provided with different forecast models, are not restricted herein.In practical application, can be predicted according to personnel amount
The difference of the requirement of the accuracy of value determines the use of the quantity and each forecast model of the corresponding forecast model in target area
Scope, if not being very high (such as to require that accuracy reaches more than 80% i.e. to the accuracy requirement of personnel amount predicted value
Can), then can only for some or several regions set a forecast model, using the forecast model to one or several areas
The personnel amount of domain day part is predicted；If accuracy requirement to personnel amount predicted value is higher, and (such as it is accurate to require
Property reach 85% or more than 90%), then can set corresponding pre- with the region or the period for a certain region or a certain period
Model is surveyed, or, it is to be respectively provided with different forecast models some region of each period, different regions or different periods are adopted
The prediction of personnel amount is carried out with different forecast models.
It is exemplary, it is determined that after the correction value of target area personnel amount, can first according to base station monitors value institute
The corresponding period determines the forecast model of target area, then using the correction value of identified target area personnel amount as certainly
Variable is substituted into forecast model determining the corresponding target area personnel amount predicted value of the base station monitors value.
The Forecasting Methodology of the area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention one is provided, obtains the base station of target area personnel amount
Monitor value, uses the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in target area to be modified to determine mesh to accessed base station monitors value
The correction value of area people quantity is marked, the forecast model according to identified correction value and pre-generatmg determines target area personnel's number
The predicted value of amount.The embodiment of the present invention can avoid the cataclysm pair of target area number of users by using above-mentioned technical proposal
The influence of the area people quantitative forecast, improves the accuracy of target area personnel amount prediction, it is ensured that target area personnel's number
Amount matches with operation maintenance personnel quantity, reduces the generation of the contingency that target area is excessively caused due to number of users, from
And on the premise of target area user's personal safety is ensured, reduce the waste of target area manpower and materials.
On the basis of above-described embodiment, before the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount is obtained, can also wrap
Include：Detect whether the current time of target area reaches predetermined time；If reached, the target area in preset period of time is obtained
The base station monitors value of the personnel amount in domain is used as personnel amount theoretical value.Exemplary, personnel amount theoretical value is updated
When, can directly using the average of the base station monitors value of preset period of time region of interest within personnel amount as the personnel's number after renewal
Amount theoretical value.Wherein, predetermined time can be configured by user or developer.At this point it is possible to according to setting cycle or setting
Time is updated to personnel amount theoretical value, and its renewal time can flexibly be set as needed, for example, its renewal time can
To be set to every morning 8：00th, mantissa is the morning 8 on the date of even number (or odd number)：00 (i.e. every two days is a cycle, often
First morning 8 in individual cycle:00 or second morning 8：00 is updated) or morning 8 on every Mondays：00 etc..Preferably, in advance
If the moment that the moment can terminate for preset period of time, for example, it is assumed that preset period of time is 4：00-5：00, then predetermined time can set
It is set to 5：00, so as to ensure that personnel amount theoretical value can upgrade in time.
Embodiment two
Fig. 2 show a kind of schematic flow sheet of the Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity of the offer of the embodiment of the present invention two,
The present embodiment is optimized on the basis of above-described embodiment, in the present embodiment, will be " described to obtain the mesh in preset period of time
The base station monitors value of personnel amount in region is marked as personnel amount theoretical value " it is optimized for：According to the target area that base station monitors are arrived
The personnel amount change curve in domain determines the stable period of the target area；Obtain the target area successively sequentially in time
The history personnel amount of stabilization period described in domain at least two；The target area correspondence is determined according to the history personnel amount
Personnel amount theoretical value, and the personnel amount theoretical value is stored.
Further, before the base station monitors value of acquisition target area personnel amount, can also include：Obtain mesh
Mark multigroup sample data of area people quantity, the correction value of the sample data including the target area personnel amount and true
It is real-valued；Regression analysis is carried out to the data sample to generate the forecast model of the target area personnel amount.
Accordingly, as shown in Fig. 2 the Forecasting Methodology of the area people quantity of the present embodiment offer includes：
S210, the multigroup sample data for obtaining target area personnel amount, the sample data include the target area
The correction value and actual value of personnel amount.
Exemplary, the correction value of target area personnel amount can be by the monitor value of target area personnel amount and mesh
The theoretical value for marking area people quantity makes the difference acquisition；The actual value of target area personnel amount can be supervised by drive test or camera
The other modes such as survey are obtained, and are not restricted herein.
S220, carry out regression analysis to the data sample to generate the forecast model of the target area personnel amount.
In the present embodiment, when forecast model is generated, can first by target area personnel amount in each data sample
Correction value carries out correlation analysis with actual value, primarily determines that the phase between the correction value of target area personnel amount and actual value
Close direction, degree of correlation and correlation form；Then using the correction value of target area personnel amount as independent variable, correspondence moment mesh
The actual value for marking area people quantity carries out regression fit as dependent variable, determines optimum regression expression formula；Finally respectively from individual
The angle of body and entirety carries out the significance test such as t inspections and F inspections to identified optimum regression expression formula, if assay
Meet the requirements, then using the optimum regression expression formula as target area personnel amount forecast model；Otherwise, then number is redefined
The operation of regression fit is carried out according to sample, untill inspection structure meets the requirements.
Exemplary, it is assumed that the correction value (x) and actual value (y) of a certain a certain period personnel amount in target area are respectively
(12276,4834), (11915,4572), (14348,4989), (14510,5066) ..., (15078,5600), then generate
The process of forecast model can be：
A, correlation analysis：Variance-covariance according to each correction value and each actual value determine correction value and actual value it
Between coefficient correlation, in the present embodiment, be computed obtaining, the coefficient correlation of above-mentioned correction value (x) and actual value (y) is
91.91%, illustrate there is positive correlation higher between correction value (x) and actual value (y)；
B, regression analysis：Assuming that polynomial-fitting functionWherein,
yiIt is i-th correction value x of sampleiCorresponding predicted value, βpIt is the corresponding regression coefficient of p-th independent variable of regression function, β0
It is the constant term of regression function, εiIt is random disturbances, by maximum likelihood method, moments estimation method, least square method or Bayes
The statistical methods such as the estimation technique to polynomial-fitting function in each coefficient estimate, the target area period pair can be obtained
The optimum regression expression formula answered is：Y=4.176 × 10-5×x2+(-1.32)×10-9×x3, wherein, independent variable x is target area
The correction value of the domain period personnel amount, dependent variable y is the predicted value of the target area period personnel amount.
C, significance test：Above-mentioned optimum regression expression formula is checked according to the significance test method such as t inspections and F inspections
Understand, the coefficient of determination after above-mentioned optimum regression expression formula adjustment can reach 97.51%, the Indexes of Evaluation Effect of its F inspections
Much smaller than 0.01, and each the unknown of equation can be checked preferably by t, it is therefore contemplated that the optimum regression expression formula
Fitting effect it is more excellent, so, can be by above-mentioned expression formula y=4.176 × 10-5×x2+(-1.32)×10-9×x3As mesh
Mark region period corresponding forecast model.
In this respect it is to be noted that above-mentioned forecast model is only an example in the embodiment of the present invention, the present invention is implemented
In example, different target areas or different periods can correspond to different forecast models, and above-mentioned model can not be used as this
The unified presentation of forecast model in inventive embodiments.
Whether S230, the current time of detection target area reach predetermined time, if so, then performing step S240；If it is not,
Then perform step S250.
Wherein, predetermined time is the renewable time of personnel amount theoretical value, and it can be configured by user or developer,
It is not restricted herein.
S240, according to base station monitors to the personnel amount change curve of target area determine the stabilization of the target area
Period, perform step S250.
Exemplary, the personnel amount change curve of target area can be the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount
Change curve；The stabilization period can be that the rate of change of the personnel amount change curve of target area is respectively less than rate of change threshold value
Most long duration.Wherein, rate of change threshold value can be according to the difference of the maxima and minima of target area personnel amount change curve
Value is configured, on the premise of personnel amount theoretical value accuracy is ensured, if its difference is larger (being assumed to be 15000), and can
Relatively large numerical value (being assumed to be 200 people/hour) is set to by rate of change threshold value, if its difference is smaller (being assumed to be
3000), then rate of change threshold value can be set to relatively small numerical value (being assumed to be 50 people/hour).Assuming that some region of
Rate of change threshold value be 200 people/hour, then the stable period in the region be the personnel amount change curve in the region variable quantity it is equal
Less than the most long duration of 200 people/hour.
In order to improve the accuracy of identified stabilization period, optionally, can be multiple more according to personnel amount theoretical value
Personnel amount change curve in the new cycle determines the stable period of target area.Wherein, the update cycle is theoretical personnel amount
The update cycle of value, each update cycle can correspond to a personnel amount change curve.Now, it is determined that some region of stabilization
During the period, predetermined number update cycle corresponding personnel before time sequencing chooses current renewable time successively can be first according to
Number change curve, and everyone's number change curve corresponding stabilization period most long is determined according to rate of change threshold value respectively, so
The public period of everyone's number change curve corresponding stabilization period most long is taken afterwards as the stable period in the region, for example,
When the stabilization period is determined by two personnel amount change curves, it is assumed that wherein one personnel amount change curve is corresponding most
The stabilization period long is 2：00-6：00, another personnel amount change curve corresponding stabilization period most long is 4：00-7：00, then
Can be by 4：00-6：00 as the region the stable period.
S250, the history personnel's number for obtaining the stabilization period described in the target area at least two successively sequentially in time
Amount.
In order to improve the accuracy of personnel amount theoretical value, can be determined according to the history personnel amount of multiple stabilization period
The personnel amount theoretical value of target area.When the history personnel amount of stabilization period is obtained, can be according to the time from the near to the remote
The history personnel amount of at least two stabilization periods of target area is obtained successively, for example, it is assumed that current time is (when updating
Carve) it is on 2 22nd, 2,017 5：00, the update cycle is 1 day, and the particular number of at least two stabilization period (that is, is obtained for 3
Take the history personnel amount of stabilization period of target area 3), the stabilization period is 4：00-5：00, then, and acquired history personnel
Quantity is on 2 22nd, 2,017 4：00-5：00th, on 2 22nd, 2,017 4：00-5：20 days 2 months 00 and 2017 year 4：00-5：00
History personnel amount.
S260, the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area is determined according to the history personnel amount, and by institute
Personnel amount theoretical value is stated to be stored.
In the present embodiment, target area can be determined according to the history personnel amount at each moment at least two stabilization periods
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in domain, for example, can first obtain corresponding history personnel amount of each stabilization period first is flat
Average, then calculates the setting function index of each stabilization average value of period first, and using the setting function index as target area
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in domain；Can also determine according to the history personnel amount at moment is set at least two stabilization periods
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in target area, for example, first history at setting moment in each stabilization period can be obtained first
Personnel amount, then calculates the setting function index of each first history personnel amount, and using the setting function index as target
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in region.Wherein, setting function index can be each first average value or each first history personnel
The average value of quantity, minimum value, median, mode or quantile etc., are not restricted herein.
S270, the base station monitors value for obtaining target area personnel amount.
S280, the base station monitors value is modified with true according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area
The correction value of the fixed target area personnel amount.
S290, the target area personnel amount predicted value is determined according to the forecast model of the correction value and pre-generatmg.
The Forecasting Methodology of the area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention two is provided, according to the data of target area personnel amount
Multi-group data sample determines the corresponding forecast model in target area, and the history personnel amount according to the target area stabilization period determines
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in target area, is supervised using the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in target area to acquired base station
Measured value is modified to obtain the correction value of target area personnel amount, and target area is determined during the correction value is substituted into forecast model
Domain personnel amount predicted value.The embodiment of the present invention can avoid target area number of users by using above-mentioned technical proposal
Influence of the cataclysm to the area people quantitative forecast, improves the accuracy of target area personnel amount prediction, it is ensured that target area
Personnel amount matches with operation maintenance personnel quantity, reduces the hair of the contingency that target area is excessively caused due to number of users
It is raw, so as on the premise of target area user's personal safety is ensured, reduce the waste of target area manpower and materials.
On the basis of above-described embodiment, the mesh is determined in the forecast model according to the correction value and pre-generatmg
After the predicted value of the personnel amount for marking region, can also include：If the predicted value exceedes the safety of the target area
Threshold value, then generate prompting message and the prompting message be sent to the attendant of the target area.In this programme, can be with
Predicted value according to target area personnel amount is safeguarded to target area.For example, it is determined that target area personnel amount is pre-
After measured value, the quantity of the attendant that can be arranged according to the predicted value and current target region determines current
Whether attendant's quantity is in rich, matching and/or state in short supply, if current time operation maintenance personnel is in rich state,
Attendant's current time of target area can be notified can recall partial maintenance personnel to avoid the waste of manpower and materials；If
Current time operation maintenance personnel is in matching status, then do not carry out recalling attendant and send the operation of attendant；If current
Moment operation maintenance personnel is in state in short supply, then can notify that the attendant of target area needs to increase to target area at current time
Attendant is sent, security incident occurs so as to avoid target area because personnel amount is excessive.
Embodiment three
The embodiment of the present invention three provides a kind of prediction meanss of area people quantity.The device can be by software and/or hardware
Realize, be typically integrated in the system with personnel amount forecast function or server, can be by performing area people quantity
Forecasting Methodology realizes the prediction to target area personnel amount.Fig. 3 show the area people quantity of the present embodiment offer
The structured flowchart of prediction meanss, as shown in figure 3, the device includes：
Monitor value acquisition module 301, the base station monitors value for obtaining target area personnel amount；
Correction value determining module 302, for according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area to the base station
Monitor value is modified to determine the correction value of the target area personnel amount；
Predicted value determining module 303, for determining the target area according to the forecast model of the correction value and pre-generatmg
Domain personnel amount predicted value.
The prediction meanss of the area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention three is provided, target is obtained by monitor value acquisition module
The base station monitors value of area people quantity, the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value pair in target area is used by correction value determining module
Accessed base station monitors value is modified to determine the correction value of target area personnel amount, by predicted value determining module
Forecast model according to identified correction value and pre-generatmg determines the predicted value of target area personnel amount.The embodiment of the present invention
By using above-mentioned technical proposal, the cataclysm of target area number of users can be avoided to the shadow of the area people quantitative forecast
Ring, improve the accuracy of target area personnel amount prediction, it is ensured that target area personnel amount matches with operation maintenance personnel quantity,
The generation of the contingency that target area is excessively caused due to number of users is reduced, so as to ensure the target area user person
On the premise of safety, the waste of target area manpower and materials is reduced.
In such scheme, the correction value determining module 302 can be specifically for：By the base station monitors value and the people
Member quantity theoretical value difference as the target area personnel amount correction value.
Further, the prediction meanss of the area people quantity that the present embodiment is provided can also include：Preset period of time is detected
Module, for before the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount is obtained, detecting whether the current time of target area reaches
To predetermined time；Theoretical value determining module, for when present period reaches preset period of time, obtaining the target in preset period of time
The base station monitors value of the personnel amount in region is used as personnel amount theoretical value.
In such scheme, the theoretical value determining module can include：Stabilization period determining unit, for according to base station
The personnel amount change curve of the target area for monitoring determines the stable period of the target area；History personnel amount is obtained
Unit, the history personnel amount for obtaining the stabilization period described in the target area at least two successively sequentially in time；
Theoretical value determining unit, for determining the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area according to the history personnel amount,
And stored the personnel amount theoretical value.
Further, the prediction meanss of the area people quantity that the present embodiment is provided can also include：Sample data is obtained
Module, for before the base station monitors value of acquisition target area personnel amount, obtaining many of target area personnel amount
Group sample data, the sample data includes the correction value and actual value of the target area personnel amount；Forecast model is generated
Module, for carrying out regression analysis to the data sample to generate the forecast model of the target area personnel amount.
Further, the prediction meanss of the area people quantity that the present embodiment is provided can also include：Prompting message is generated
Module, for determine in the forecast model according to the correction value and pre-generatmg the target area personnel amount it is pre-
After measured value, if the predicted value exceedes the secure threshold of the target area, prompting message is generated and by the prompting
Information is sent to the attendant of the target area.
The prediction assembling device of the area people quantity that the embodiment of the present invention three is provided can perform any embodiment of the present invention and carry
The Forecasting Methodology of the area people quantity of confession, possesses and performs the corresponding functional module of Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity and beneficial
Effect.Not ins and outs of detailed description in the present embodiment, reference can be made to the area people that any embodiment of the present invention is provided
The Forecasting Methodology of quantity.
Note, above are only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention and institute's application technology principle.It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that
The invention is not restricted to specific embodiment described here, can carry out for a person skilled in the art various obvious changes,
Readjust and substitute without departing from protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, although the present invention is carried out by above example
It is described in further detail, but the present invention is not limited only to above example, without departing from the inventive concept, also
More other Equivalent embodiments can be included, and the scope of the present invention is determined by scope of the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of Forecasting Methodology of area people quantity, it is characterised in that including：
Obtain the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount；
The base station monitors value is modified to determine the mesh according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area
Mark the correction value of area people quantity；
Forecast model according to the correction value and pre-generatmg determines the target area personnel amount predicted value.
2. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described according to the corresponding personnel amount reason in the target area
The base station monitors value is modified by value to determine the correction value of the target area personnel amount, specially：
Using the difference of the base station monitors value and the personnel amount theoretical value as the target area personnel amount amendment
Value.
3. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that obtain target area personnel amount base station monitors value it
Before, also include：
Detect whether the current time of target area reaches predetermined time；
If reached, the base station monitors value for obtaining the personnel amount of the target area in preset period of time is managed as personnel amount
By value.
4. method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the personnel of the target area in the acquisition preset period of time
The base station monitors value of quantity as personnel amount theoretical value, including：
According to base station monitors to the personnel amount change curve of target area determine stable period of the target area；
Obtain the history personnel amount of stabilization period described in the target area at least two successively sequentially in time；
The corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area is determined according to the history personnel amount, and by the personnel amount
Theoretical value is stored.
5. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that in the base station monitors of acquisition target area personnel amount
Before value, also include：
Multigroup sample data of target area personnel amount is obtained, the sample data includes the target area personnel amount
Correction value and actual value；
Regression analysis is carried out to the data sample to generate the forecast model of the target area personnel amount.
6. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described according to the correction value and the prediction mould of pre-generatmg
Type determines after the predicted value of the personnel amount of the target area, also includes：
If the predicted value exceedes the secure threshold of the target area, generate prompting message and send out the prompting message
Give the attendant of the target area.
7. a kind of prediction meanss of area people quantity, it is characterised in that including：
Monitor value acquisition module, the base station monitors value for obtaining target area personnel amount；
Correction value determining module, for being entered to the base station monitors value according to the corresponding personnel amount theoretical value in the target area
Row is corrected to determine the correction value of the target area personnel amount；
Predicted value determining module, for determining the target area personnel number according to the forecast model of the correction value and pre-generatmg
Amount predicted value.
8. device according to claim 7, it is characterised in that also include：
Preset period of time detection module, for before the base station monitors value of target area personnel amount is obtained, detecting target area
Current time whether reach predetermined time；
Theoretical value determining module, for when present period reaches preset period of time, obtaining the target area in preset period of time
The base station monitors value of personnel amount is used as personnel amount theoretical value.
9. device according to claim 8, it is characterised in that the theoretical value determining module includes：
Stabilization period determining unit, for according to base station monitors to the personnel amount change curve of target area determine the mesh
Mark the stable period in region；
History personnel amount acquiring unit, for obtaining stabilization described in the target area at least two successively sequentially in time
The history personnel amount of period；
Theoretical value determining unit, for determining that the corresponding personnel amount in the target area is theoretical according to the history personnel amount
Value, and the personnel amount theoretical value is stored.
10. device according to claim 7, it is characterised in that also include：
Sample data acquisition module, for before the base station monitors value of acquisition target area personnel amount, obtaining target
Multigroup sample data of area people quantity, the correction value of the sample data including the target area personnel amount and true
Value；
Forecast model generation module, for carrying out regression analysis to the data sample to generate the target area personnel amount
Forecast model.
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