CN106845778A - Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in a kind of science popularization based on contribution degree - Google Patents

Abstract

Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled the present invention relates to a kind of science popularization based on contribution degree, belongs to combined probability analysis technical field.The inventive method obtains characterizing the groundwater depletion index of groundwater depletion by determining Different Industries underground water usage amount；And analyze the contribution degree of rainfall and consumption exponent pair level of ground water；The three-dimensional copula functions of contribution degree are considered by building, the dynamic relationship between WATER LEVEL CHANGES and consumption supply is analyzed from probability, the development plan of Prediction of Precipitation or region social economy can be combined, for policymaker provides foundation.Using the method for the present invention, the probability that level of ground water when economic development reaches different levels is likely to be breached a certain value can be studied according to the prediction to following precipitation, reference is provided to carry out Regional Economic Development；Or according to forecast economic development, the possibility of different levels of ground water appearance under different precipitation conditions is studied, provide foundation to carry out ground water protection.

Description

Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in a kind of science popularization based on contribution degree

Technical field

(Copula) function analysis of underground water level method is strangled the present invention relates to a kind of science popularization based on contribution degree, belongs to joint Probability analysis technical field.

Background technology

Water as the grand strategy resource for realizing the sustainable development of socio-economy, with irreplaceable effect.And ground Lower water resource not only compensate for the uneven region for causing of surface water resources spatial and temporal distributions and supply as wherein important part Water is not enough, while also support the harmony of ecological environment.Underground water is that the national economic development and living standards of the people are provided Source ensuring, is made that tremendous contribution, but in recent years, due to random mining, underground water serious over-extraction, particularly Hebei, The ground such as Shanxi, have triggered level of ground water continuous decrease and its a series of water environmental problems.To implement most stringent of water resource pipe Reason system, strengthens, to underground water resource optimal allocation, on the premise of groundwater dynamic is grasped in time, understanding its change very Necessity, underground water forecast analysis work is also the focus of current study of groundwater.

Fairly simple hydrologic(al) budget method is used to the analysis and research method of underground water earliest and hydrogeology is compared Method, commonly used with computer later, the use of Method for Numerical is increasingly extensive.Because deterministic models are for complexity The simulation of hydrogeologic condition is difficult to ensure that precision, and stochastic model method is also arisen at the historic moment, and mainly has regression analysis, grey mould Type and time series models etc..

The Source Of Supply of underground water is mainly rainfall, and consumption is mainly the exploitation of the mankind, analysis of underground water level is carried out at present Research has limitation.First, current research does not consider the two contribution degree problem for WATER LEVEL CHANGES, only Model will be brought into both as influence factor and be predicted analysis, lack the consideration to weight；Secondly, not from Joint Distribution The relation gone to seek between WATER LEVEL CHANGES supply consumption of angle, provide risk that may be present from the angle of Probability, For policymaker provides foundation.

The content of the invention

Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled the purpose of the present invention is to propose to a kind of science popularization based on contribution degree, to solve mesh It is preceding carrying out the consideration that analysis of underground water level is the absence of to different factors to WATER LEVEL CHANGES contribution degree, while without from joint The probabilistic relation that the angle of probability distribution is gone between Study of The Underground water level and the supply consumption of influence level of ground water factor.

Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in science popularization based on contribution degree proposed by the present invention, is comprised the following steps：

(1) related data in region to be analyzed is obtained, including：From region to be analyzed, affiliated Hydrology department obtains area to be analyzed Domain each annual data of groundwater level A in nearest 30 years_YearWith minimum data of groundwater level A_{It is low}, from the affiliated government's rule in region to be analyzed Draw department obtain region to be analyzed in nearest 30 years each year primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry underground water respectively use Amount C₁、C₂、C₃With obtain each total usage amount C of year underground water in nearest 30 years of region to be analyzed, from the affiliated hydrology portion in region to be analyzed Door obtains the nearest 30 years middle aged rainfall data B in region to be analyzed_Year, obtain to be analyzed from the affiliated government administration section in region to be analyzed Region each year value-added of the primary industry D in nearest 30 years₁, value of secondary industry D₂With value-added of the tertiary industry D₃；

(2) data obtained according to above-mentioned steps (1), calculate the ground of the primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry respectively Lower water consumption accounts for the weight α of underground water wastage in bulk or weight₁、α₂And α₃It is as follows：

In above formula,It is the long-time average annual value of above-mentioned each total usage amount C of year underground water,Respectively each year One industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry underground water usage amount C respectively₁、C₂、C₃Long-time average annual value；

By following formula, groundwater depletion index W is calculated：

W_i=D_1i×α₁+D_2i×α₂+D_3i×α₃I=1,2,3 ... ..30

In above formula, subscript i represents time, W_iRepresent the groundwater depletion index in each year, D_1i、D_2i、D_3iRespectively each year One industry, secondary industry, the value added of the tertiary industry, α₁、α₂、α₃The respectively primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry underground Water consumption accounts for the weight of underground water wastage in bulk or weight；

(3) data obtained according to above-mentioned steps (1), draw year minimum level of ground water A_{It is low}With the linear relationship chart of time, Abscissa is the time, and ordinate is minimum underground water place value of each year, from minimum level of ground water A_{It is low}In the linear relationship chart of time Obtain the flex point time of WATER LEVEL CHANGES；

(4) data obtained according to step (1), draw average data of groundwater level A respectively_Year, annual rainfall data B_YearAnd ground Lower water consumption index W and the linear relationship chart between the time, abscissa are the time, and ordinate is respectively each year A_Year、B_YearAnd W, root According to the level of ground water flex point time that above-mentioned steps (3) determine, above three difference linear relationship chart is divided into level of ground water Two parts before and after flex point, add the Trendline of each several part, it is assumed that before and after flex point, level of ground water A respectively_YearWith the top-stitching in time Sexual intercourse slope is respectively S_AbAnd S_Aa, rainfall B_YearLinear relationship slope between the time is respectively S_BbAnd S_Ba, groundwater depletion Linear relationship slope between index W and time is respectively S_WbAnd S_Wa, then contribution degree C of the precipitation to WATER LEVEL CHANGES_BFor：

C_B=((S_Bb+S_Ba)/2)/((S_Ab+S_Aa)/2)

Contribution degree C of the groundwater depletion index W to WATER LEVEL CHANGES_WFor：

C_W=-((S_Wb+S_Wa)/2)/((S_Ab+S_Aa)/2)；

(5) according to above-mentioned steps (1)-step (4), the three class data according to the time successively arrangement are obtained：The first kind is A_Year Series, Equations of The Second Kind is different year rainfall B_YearWith C_bProduct B '_YearSeries, the 3rd class is different year groundwater depletion index W and C_gProduct W' series；

(6) the three class DS A obtained according to above-mentioned steps (5)_Year、B‘_Year, W', each serial edge is calculated respectively Probability distribution, the various distribution linetypes being chosen in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis are carried out curve fitting respectively, and then each is distributed Line style is tested, and obtains the optimal fitting distribution linetype of each class data, compare the theoretical value of distribution linetype and actual value it Between root mean square R_RMSE, with root mean square R_RMSEMinimum principle selects the preferable distribution function of degree of fitting：

(7) the Clayton Copula and Gumbel Copula functions difference in family is strangled using archimedes type science popularization Build three-dimensional joint probability distribution：

Frank Copula forms are：

Clayton Copula forms are：

In formula, θ is the parameter of copula functions, u₁、u₂、u₃It is marginal distribution function；

(8) goodness of fit from sum of squares of deviations minimum criteria method to Copula functions is evaluated, and is chosen deviation and is put down Side and the minimum copula of minimum criteria method strangle function, the computing formula of sum of squares of deviations minimum criteria method as preferred science popularization For：

In above formula,p_iRespectively empirical Frequency and theoretic frequency；I is sample sequence number；

(9) function calculation risk probability is strangled according to selected science popularization, formula is：

In above formula, it is assumed that x₁It is level of ground water series A_Year, x₂To characterize the W' series of groundwater depletion, x₃It is rainfall system Row B '_YearSeries, obtains rainfall and is equal to or less than under setting Probability Condition, level of ground water and the equal hairs of groundwater depletion W' Raw probability, the prediction according to meteorological department to rainfall determines the probability that a rainfall occurs, and obtains economic growth certain Corresponding level of ground water possible values under the conditions of value, to formulate economic development policy；Or assume x₃To characterize the W' of groundwater depletion Series, x₁It is level of ground water series A_Year, x₂It is rainfall series B '_YearSeries, obtains when industry development reaches some degree, The corresponding probability for reaching setting between level of ground water and rainfall simultaneously, according to the planning of future government, determines a underground water The value of the W' of consumption, obtains when rainfall reaches setting probable value, level of ground water possible values, for ground water protection policy is provided Foundation.

In the step of function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in the above-mentioned science popularization based on contribution degree 5, in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis Various distribution linetypes are respectively：The type distribution curves of P- III, Lognormal distribution curve and generalized extreme value distribution curve, the types of P- III Distribution probability density formula is：

Wherein, α is form parameter, and β is scale parameter, a₀It is location parameter.

Generalized extreme value distribution curve probability density formula is：

Wherein, α is scale parameter, and k is form parameter, and u is location parameter.

Lognormal distribution curve probability density formula is：

Wherein μ_y、δ_yRespectively x sequences take the average and standard deviation of the sequence formed after natural logrithm.

Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in science popularization based on contribution degree proposed by the present invention, and its advantage is as follows：

(1) present invention chooses precipitation as recharge of ground water factor, and power is set by the groundwater depletion amount of Different Industries Re-computation groundwater depletion index is analyzed by linear gradient and determines supply and consume to underground water as groundwater depletion factor Contribution rate, intuitively reflect influence level of ground water different factors between relation；

(2) by setting up the joint probability distribution of three, WATER LEVEL CHANGES and consumption from the angle analysis of Probability The probabilistic relation of the presence between supply, eliminating model method cannot portray the defect of variation of groundwater dynamic, by coupling Climate change model plans that the prediction of rainfall or Regional Economic Development influence of the analysis supply consumption to groundwater level is Policymaker provides foundation.

Specific embodiment

Function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in science popularization based on contribution degree proposed by the present invention, is comprised the following steps：

(1) related data in region to be analyzed is obtained, including：From region to be analyzed, affiliated Hydrology department obtains area to be analyzed Domain each annual data of groundwater level A in nearest 30 years_YearWith minimum data of groundwater level A_{It is low}, from the affiliated government's rule in region to be analyzed Draw department obtain region to be analyzed in nearest 30 years each year primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry underground water respectively use Amount C₁、C₂、C₃With obtain each total usage amount C of year underground water in nearest 30 years of region to be analyzed, from the affiliated hydrology portion in region to be analyzed Door obtains the nearest 30 years middle aged rainfall data B in region to be analyzed_Year, treated point from being obtained from the affiliated government administration section in region to be analyzed Analysis region each year value-added of the primary industry D in nearest 30 years₁, value of secondary industry D₂With value-added of the tertiary industry D₃；

(2) data obtained according to above-mentioned steps (1), calculate the ground of the primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry respectively Lower water consumption accounts for the weight α of underground water wastage in bulk or weight₁、α₂And α₃It is as follows：

In above formula,It is the long-time average annual value of above-mentioned each total usage amount C of year underground water,Respectively each year One industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry underground water usage amount C respectively₁、C₂、C₃Long-time average annual value；

By following formula, groundwater depletion index W is calculated：

W_i=D_1i×α₁+D_2i×α₂+D_3i×α₃I=1,2,3 ... ..30

In above formula, subscript i represents time, W_iRepresent the groundwater depletion index in each year, D_1i、D_2i、D_3iRespectively each year One industry, secondary industry, the value added of the tertiary industry, α₁、α₂、α₃The respectively primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry underground Water consumption accounts for the weight of underground water wastage in bulk or weight；

(3) data obtained according to above-mentioned steps (1), draw year minimum level of ground water A_{It is low}With the linear relationship chart of time, Abscissa is the time, and ordinate is minimum underground water place value of each year, from minimum level of ground water A_{It is low}In the linear relationship chart of time Obtain the flex point time of WATER LEVEL CHANGES；Because level of ground water exploitation in recent years is on the rise, addition Trendline judges flex point WATER LEVEL CHANGES trend has obvious difference before and after time where place time, flex point.

(4) data obtained according to step (1), draw average data of groundwater level A respectively_Year, annual rainfall data B_YearAnd ground Lower water consumption index W and the linear relationship chart between the time, abscissa are the time, and ordinate is respectively each year A_Year、B_YearAnd W, root According to the level of ground water flex point time that above-mentioned steps (3) determine, above three difference linear relationship chart is divided into level of ground water Two parts before and after flex point, add the Trendline of each several part, it is assumed that before and after flex point, level of ground water A respectively_YearWith the top-stitching in time Sexual intercourse slope is respectively S_AbAnd S_Aa, rainfall B_YearLinear relationship slope between the time is respectively S_BbAnd S_Ba, groundwater depletion Linear relationship slope between index W and time is respectively S_WbAnd S_Wa, then contribution degree C of the precipitation to WATER LEVEL CHANGES_BFor：

C_B=((S_Bb+S_Ba)/2)/((S_Ab+S_Aa)/2)

Contribution degree C of the groundwater depletion index W to WATER LEVEL CHANGES_WFor：

C_W=-((S_Wb+S_Wa)/2)/((S_Ab+S_Aa)/2)；

(5) according to above-mentioned steps (1)-step (4), the three class data according to the time successively arrangement are obtained：The first kind is A_Year Series, Equations of The Second Kind is different year rainfall B_YearWith C_bProduct B '_YearSeries, the 3rd class is different year groundwater depletion index W and C_gProduct W' series；

(6) the three class DS A obtained according to above-mentioned steps (5)_Year、B‘_Year, W', each serial edge is calculated respectively Probability distribution, the various distribution linetypes being chosen in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis are carried out curve fitting respectively, and then each is distributed Line style is tested, and obtains the optimal fitting distribution linetype of each class data, and curve matching is approx to be portrayed with full curve Or be to use Analytical Expression than a kind of data processing method of the functional relation between the coordinate represented by discrete point group on quasi-plane Formula approaches a kind of method of discrete data.The scatter diagram for drawing series first is had main steps that, appropriate distributing line is then chosen Type, finally adjusts distribution linetype relevant parameter.Compare the root mean square R between the theoretical value of distribution linetype and actual value_RMSE, with equal Root R_RMSEMinimum principle selects the preferable distribution function of degree of fitting：

For example：According to the three class DS A that above-mentioned steps (5) are obtained_Year、B‘_Year, W', each serial side is calculated respectively Edge probability distribution, the various distribution linetypes being chosen in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis carry out curve fitting respectively, and curve matching is with company Portray or than a kind of data processing of the functional relation between the coordinate represented by discrete point group on quasi-plane continuous curve approximation Method, is a kind of method that discrete data is approached with analytical expression.The scatter diagram for drawing series first is had main steps that, then Appropriate distribution linetype is chosen, distribution linetype relevant parameter is finally adjusted；By checking different distribution linetype theoretical value and realities Root mean square between actual value, i.e. R_RMSE, with R_RMSEMinimum principle selects the preferable distribution function of degree of fitting：

In above formula, F (x) is theoretic distribution function, F₀It is empirical distribution function, with A_YearAs a example by series, first in the series Row are the time (x), and secondary series is underground water place value A_Year,Implication be exactly by calculate choose distribution function F (x), from x₁Open Begin to calculate each theoretical value F (X_i) and actual value root mean square, calculate to last x always_n；

(7) the Clayton Copula and Gumbel Copula functions difference in family is strangled using archimedes type science popularization Build three-dimensional joint probability distribution：

Frank Copula forms are：

Clayton Copula forms are：

In formula, θ is the parameter of copula functions, u₁、u₂、u₃It is marginal distribution function；

(8) evaluated from sum of squares of deviations minimum criteria method (OLS) goodness of fit to Copula functions, choose from The minimum copula of difference quadratic sum minimum criteria method strangles function as preferred science popularization, and the calculating of sum of squares of deviations minimum criteria method is public Formula is：

In above formula,p_iRespectively empirical Frequency and theoretic frequency；I is sample sequence number；

(9) function calculation risk probability is strangled according to selected science popularization, formula is：

In above formula, it is assumed that x₁It is level of ground water series A_Year, x₂To characterize the W' series of groundwater depletion, x₃It is rainfall system Row B '_YearSeries, obtains rainfall and is equal to or less than under setting Probability Condition, level of ground water and the equal hairs of groundwater depletion W' Raw probability, the prediction according to meteorological department to rainfall determines the probability that a rainfall occurs, and obtains the certain value of economic growth Under the conditions of corresponding level of ground water possible values, be to formulate economic development policy；Or assume x₃To characterize the W' systems of groundwater depletion Row, x₁It is level of ground water series A_Year, x₂It is rainfall series B '_YearSeries, obtains when industry development reaches some degree, phase Answer between level of ground water and rainfall while reach setting probability, according to the planning of future government, determine a groundwater depletion W' value, obtain when rainfall reach setting probable value when, level of ground water possible values, for ground water protection policy provide according to According to.

In the step of above method 5, the various distribution linetypes in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis are respectively：The type distribution curves of P- III (P3), Lognormal distribution curve (LN2) and generalized extreme value distribution curve (GEV), the type distribution probability density formulas of P- III are：

Wherein, α is form parameter, and β is scale parameter, a₀It is location parameter.

Generalized extreme value distribution curve probability density formula is：

Wherein, α is scale parameter, and k is form parameter, and u is location parameter.

Lognormal distribution curve probability density formula is：

Wherein μ_y、δ_yRespectively x sequences take the average and standard deviation of the sequence formed after natural logrithm.

Using the method for the present invention, can be according to climate model to the prediction level of following precipitation, it is assumed that rainfall reaches During a certain frequency, risk relations between Study of The Underground water level and groundwater depletion index, i.e. economic development reach different levels When level of ground water be likely to be breached the probability of a certain value, provide reference to carry out Regional Economic Development；Or according to forecast economic development, It is assumed that on the premise of groundwater depletion index reaches a certain value, the possibility of level of ground water appearance under different precipitation conditions is studied, Foundation is provided to carry out ground water protection.Can be assumed B '_YearDuring equal to or less than a certain frequency, different zones economic development W' and Level of ground water A_YearThe risk probability for occurring simultaneously.

By determining Different Industries groundwater depletion, the groundwater depletion for obtaining characterizing consumption weight refers to the inventive method Number；By the Contribution Analysis to rainfall and groundwater depletion exponent pair level of ground water, fed and consumed to level of ground water Influence degree；By building three-dimensional copula functions, analyze dynamic between WATER LEVEL CHANGES and consumption supply from probability State relation, can couple the Prediction of Precipitation of climate change model or the development plan of region social economy, for policymaker provide according to According to.

The present invention can be applied in analysis of underground water level forecast, and the Source Of Supply of level of ground water is mainly rainfall recharge, Consumption is mainly the mining of groundwater that economic activity brings, and the present invention can be supplied to analysis of underground water level effectively with reference to letter Breath.Specifically, according to the prediction level to following precipitation, it is assumed that rainfall be a certain value when, Study of The Underground water level and Level of ground water is likely to be breached a certain value when risk relations between groundwater depletion index, i.e. economic development reach different levels Probability, reference is provided to carry out Regional Economic Development；Or according to forecast economic development, it is assumed that groundwater depletion index reaches a certain On the premise of value, the possibility of level of ground water appearance under different precipitation conditions is studied, foundation is provided to carry out ground water protection.

Exemplary description is carried out to the present invention above in conjunction with embodiment, it is clear that above-mentioned side is not received in realization of the invention The limitation of formula, as long as employing method of the present invention design and the various improvement that carry out of technical scheme, or not improved sends out this Bright design and technical scheme directly applies to other occasions, within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in a kind of science popularization based on contribution degree, it is characterised in that comprised the following steps：

(1) related data in region to be analyzed is obtained, including：From region to be analyzed, affiliated Hydrology department obtains region to be analyzed most Each annual data of groundwater level A in nearly 30 years_YearWith minimum data of groundwater level A_{It is low}, from the affiliated government planning portion in region to be analyzed Door obtains the underground water usage amount of region to be analyzed each year primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry difference in nearest 30 years C₁、C₂、C₃With obtain each total usage amount C of year underground water in nearest 30 years of region to be analyzed, from the affiliated Hydrology department in region to be analyzed Obtain the nearest 30 years middle aged rainfall data B in region to be analyzed_Year, obtain to be analyzed from from the affiliated government administration section in region to be analyzed Region each year value-added of the primary industry D in nearest 30 years₁, value of secondary industry D₂With value-added of the tertiary industry D₃；

(2) data obtained according to above-mentioned steps (1), calculate the underground water of the primary industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry respectively Consumption accounts for the weight α of underground water wastage in bulk or weight₁、α₂And α₃It is as follows：

${\mathrm{\α}}_1=\frac{{\stackrel{\‾}{C}}_1}{\stackrel{\‾}{C}}{\mathrm{\α}}_2=\frac{{\stackrel{\‾}{C}}_2}{\stackrel{\‾}{C}}{\mathrm{\α}}_3=\frac{{\stackrel{\‾}{C}}_3}{\stackrel{\‾}{C}}$

In above formula,It is the long-time average annual value of above-mentioned each total usage amount C of year underground water,Respectively each year first produces Industry, secondary industry and the tertiary industry underground water usage amount C respectively₁、C₂、C₃Long-time average annual value；

By following formula, groundwater depletion index W is calculated：

W_i=D_1i×α₁+D_2i×α₂+D_3i×α₃I=1,2,3 ... ..30

In above formula, subscript i represents time, W_iRepresent the groundwater depletion index in each year, D_1i、D_2i、D_3iRespectively each year first produces Industry, secondary industry, the value added of the tertiary industry, α₁、α₂、α₃Respectively the primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry underground water disappear Consumption accounts for the weight of underground water wastage in bulk or weight；

(3) data obtained according to above-mentioned steps (1), draw year minimum level of ground water A_{It is low}With the linear relationship chart of time, horizontal seat The time is designated as, ordinate is minimum underground water place value of each year, from minimum level of ground water A_{It is low}Obtained with the linear relationship chart of time The flex point time of WATER LEVEL CHANGES；

(4) data obtained according to step (1), draw average data of groundwater level A respectively_Year, annual rainfall data B_YearAnd underground water Consumption index W and the linear relationship chart between the time, abscissa is the time, and ordinate is respectively each year A_Year、B_YearAnd W, according to upper The level of ground water flex point time of step (3) determination is stated, above three difference linear relationship chart is divided into level of ground water flex point Front and rear two parts, add the Trendline of each several part, it is assumed that before and after flex point, level of ground water A respectively_YearLinearly closed between the time It is slope respectively S_AbAnd S_Aa, rainfall B_YearLinear relationship slope between the time is respectively S_BbAnd S_Ba, groundwater depletion index Linear relationship slope between W and time is respectively S_WbAnd S_Wa, then contribution degree C of the precipitation to WATER LEVEL CHANGES_BFor：

C_B=((S_Bb+S_Ba)/2)/((S_Ab+S_Aa)/2)

Contribution degree C of the groundwater depletion index W to WATER LEVEL CHANGES_WFor：

C_W=-((S_Wb+S_Wa)/2)/((S_Ab+S_Aa)/2)；

(5) according to above-mentioned steps (1)-step (4), the three class data according to the time successively arrangement are obtained：The first kind is A_YearSeries, Equations of The Second Kind is different year rainfall B_YearWith C_bProduct B '_YearSeries, the 3rd class is different year groundwater depletion index W and C_g Product W' series；

(6) the three class DS A obtained according to above-mentioned steps (5)_Year、B‘_Year, W', each serial marginal probability is calculated respectively Distribution, the various distribution linetypes being chosen in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis carry out curve fitting respectively, then to each distribution linetype Test, obtain the optimal fitting distribution linetype of each class data, compare between the theoretical value of distribution linetype and actual value Root mean square R_RMSE, with root mean square R_RMSEMinimum principle selects the preferable distribution function of degree of fitting：

$R_{RMSE}=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{\[F\left(x_i\right)-F_0\left(x_i\right)\]}^2}$

(7) Clayton Copula and the GumbelCopula functions in family are strangled using archimedes type science popularization and builds three respectively Dimension joint probability distribution：

Frank Copula forms are：

$C(u_1,u_2,u_3)=-\frac{1}{\mathrm{\θ}}ln(1+\frac{(e^{-{\mathrm{\θu}}_1}-1)(e^{-{\mathrm{\θu}}_2}-1)(e^{-{\mathrm{\θu}}_3}-1)}{{(e^{-\mathrm{\θ}}-1)}^2})\mathrm{\θ}\∈R$

Clayton Copula forms are：

$C(u_1,u_2,u_3)=(u_1^{-\mathrm{\θ}}+u_2^{-\mathrm{\θ}}+u_3^{-\mathrm{\θ}}-2),\mathrm{\θ}\≥0$

In formula, θ is the parameter of copula functions, u₁、u₂、u₃It is marginal distribution function；

(8) goodness of fit from sum of squares of deviations minimum criteria method to Copula functions is evaluated, and chooses sum of squares of deviations The minimum copula of minimum criteria method strangles function as preferred science popularization, and the computing formula of sum of squares of deviations minimum criteria method is：

$OLS=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{(p_{e_i}-p_i)}^2}$

In above formula,p_iRespectively empirical Frequency and theoretic frequency；I is sample sequence number；

(9) function calculation risk probability is strangled according to selected science popularization, formula is：

$F(x_1,x_2|X_3=x_3)=\frac{\∂F(x_1,x_2,x_3)/\∂x_3}{f_{x_3}}=C(U_1\≤u_1,U_2\≤u_2|U_3=u_3)=\frac{\∂C(u_1,u_2,u_3)}{\∂u_3}$

$F(x_1,x_2|X_3\≤x_3)=\frac{F(x_1,x_2,x_3)}{F\left(x_3\right)}=\frac{C(u_1,u_2,u_3)}{u_3}$

In above formula, it is assumed that x₁It is level of ground water series A_Year, x₂To characterize the W' series of groundwater depletion, x₃It is rainfall series B '_Year Series, obtains rainfall and is equal to or less than under setting Probability Condition, and level of ground water and the equal generations of groundwater depletion W' are general Rate, the prediction according to meteorological department to rainfall determines the probability that a rainfall occurs, and obtains the certain value condition of economic growth Corresponding level of ground water possible values, is formulation economic development policy down；Or assume x₃To characterize the W' series of groundwater depletion, x₁ It is level of ground water series A_Year, x₂It is rainfall series B '_YearSeries, obtains when industry development reaches some degree, correspondingly It is lower to reach setting probability simultaneously between water level and rainfall, according to the planning of future government, determine a W' for groundwater depletion Value, obtain when rainfall reach setting probable value when, level of ground water possible values, for ground water protection policy provides foundation.

2. function analysis of underground water level method is strangled in the science popularization based on contribution degree as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：Step Various distribution linetypes in hydrologic(al) frequency analysis in 5 are respectively：The type distribution curves of P- III, Lognormal distribution curve and wide Adopted the extreme value distribution curve, the type distribution probability density formulas of P- III are：

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{{\mathrm{\β}}^{\mathrm{\α}}}{\mathrm{\Γ}\left(\mathrm{\α}\right)}{(x-a_0)}^{\mathrm{\α}-1}{e}^{-\mathrm{\β}(x-a_0)}$

Wherein, α is form parameter, and β is scale parameter, a₀It is location parameter.

Generalized extreme value distribution curve probability density formula is：

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{a}{\[1+k\left(\frac{x-u}{a}\right)\]}^{-1/k-1}\×e^{-{\[1-k\left(\frac{x-u}{a}\right)\]}^{1/k}}$

Wherein, α is scale parameter, and k is form parameter, and u is location parameter.

Lognormal distribution curve probability density formula is：

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}{\mathrm{x\δ}}_y}\exp \left\{\frac{-{\[\ln x-{\mathrm{\μ}}_y\]}^2}{2{\mathrm{\δ}}_y^2}\right\},x>0$

Wherein μ_y、δ_yRespectively x sequences take the average and standard deviation of the sequence formed after natural logrithm.