CN106803133A - It is a kind of to embody the segmented Forecasting Methodology that burst key element influences on town and country and social development indices - Google Patents

It is a kind of to embody the segmented Forecasting Methodology that burst key element influences on town and country and social development indices Download PDF

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CN106803133A
CN106803133A CN201710003028.4A CN201710003028A CN106803133A CN 106803133 A CN106803133 A CN 106803133A CN 201710003028 A CN201710003028 A CN 201710003028A CN 106803133 A CN106803133 A CN 106803133A
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key element
index
prediction
prediction index
town
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王大伟
王潘绣
宣卫红
戴军
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Jinling Institute of Technology
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Abstract

The present invention relates to Urban-rural Development index prediction technical field, and in particular to a kind of to embody the segmented Forecasting Methodology that burst key element influences on town and country and social development indices；It is specifically when only consideration normal constituents are concluded on the basis of probability theory, certain index growth rate rule over the years, and the random number average value u and form parameter m for obtaining the growth rate normal distribution are fitted with this, foundation meets the growth rate background trend prediction formula of Weibull distributions, and the index background future developing trend is predicted by the segmented method of growth rate over the years；Additionally introduce the triggering of burst key element, influencing mechanism again simultaneously, embody influence of the burst key element to index future developing trend, finally improve segmented index prediction method；It accurately predicts the generation for being conducive to taking precautions against the risk case in society for town and country and social development, is conducive to the development for promoting town and country society various pieces healthy, orderly, for the formulation of Social Decision Making provides foundation, has a very important role.

Description

A kind of burst key element that embodies is pre- on the segmented that town and country and social development indices influence Survey method
Technical field
The present invention relates to Urban-rural Development index prediction technical field, and in particular to one kind can embody burst key element to town and country and The segmented Forecasting Methodology of social development indices influence.
Background technology
Social forecasting is a kind of advanced stage of prediction, refers to predict main body under certain theoretical support, according to Some rules of development predict the social phenomenon that may occur to future society, event and process.For town and country and social development Accurate prediction is conducive to taking precautions against the generation of the risk case in society, is conducive to promoting the social various pieces health in town and country, has The development of sequence, for the formulation of Social Decision Making provides foundation, has a very important role.It is current pre- in the social development of town and country Survey method mainly has Grey Model method, regression prediction method, time series forecasting, Logistic curve models to predict Method, Malthus Model predicted method, the above method is during prediction not by the factor of accident separately as influence Key element is listed, so as to cause its predict result it is not accurate enough, with town and country social development in it is complicated and changeable the characteristics of run counter to, shadow The accuracy that policymaker makes strategy to following town and country social development is rung.Therefore inquire into it is a kind of based on the triggering of burst key element, The segmented index prediction of influencing mechanism is a kind of trial of new method, for the research for carrying out town and country social development forecast analysis Tool is of great significance.
The content of the invention
Defect and deficiency it is an object of the invention to be directed to prior art, there is provided one kind can embody burst key element to town and country And the segmented Forecasting Methodology of social development indices influence, it is concretely comprised the following steps：
Step 1：Collect and intend prediction town and country and social development indices annual growth for many years；
Step 2：List influence and intend the burst key element of prediction index, and the year by burst elements affect is found out in data collection Part, reject the index annual growth in these times；
Step 3：Calculate the plan prediction index average annual growth rate λ after screeningAveragely；
Step 4：The annual growth scope of statistics is 5 parts, and calculate annual growth appear in the range of frequency n, calculate Obtain every section of distribution density of annual growth scope；
Step 5：With past annual growth scope as abscissa, year is drawn by ordinate of the distribution density of the growth rate scope Growth rate distribution curve；
Step 6：Stochastic variable average and form parameter are constantly corrected, until the annual growth in normal distribution curve and step 5 Distribution curve is essentially coincided；
Step 7：During prediction, 0-1 random number α are automatically generated every year per year first, calculate normal distribution random number μ, then substitute into Formula obtains intending prediction index annual growth λ from now on；
Step 8：In current criteria value A0On the basis of, calculated by segmented method and intend prediction index desired value annual from now on, Finally give the index background future developing trend；
Step 9：Consider burst key element government regulation F1Whether may occur in time span of forecast, generation then triggers burst key element F1 =1, otherwise F1=0；
Step 10：If F1=0 directly calculates the prediction index future on the basis of the background future developing trend of step 8 gained Desired value；If F1=1 is input into government regulation possibility time of origin T from now onF1, and determine that it is sent out according to conventional similar case Influence amplitude ss after life to prediction index development trendliWith influence duration LF1, calculate TF1~TF1+LF1Consider between year Burst key element F1Prediction index future desired value afterwards；
Step 11：Repeat step 9, step 10, counts burst key element natural calamity F successively respectively2, man-made disaster F3, public defend Make trouble part F4, social security events F5Influence, finally give and intend prediction index following desired value for many years from now on；
Step 12：Intend prediction index following desired value for many years from now on according to gained is calculated, following hair of prediction index is intended in analysis Exhibition trend.
After the above method, the present invention has the beneficial effect that：One kind of the present invention can embody burst key element to town and country And the segmented Forecasting Methodology of social development indices influence, it has following two big advantages：1. in the reasonable, reliable of burst key element Under estimated, the influence of burst key element prediction index future trend can be accurately embodied；2. by choose whether triggering burst key element with And different possibility time of origins are input into, the different future developing trends of prediction index can be respectively obtained, so as to probe into common rule Rule, analyzes the polytropy of future trend.Therefore predicting the outcome can provide more rational plan prediction index value for town and country rule Draw；Can react whether the key element that happens suddenly occurs and time of origin is to the Different Effects of the following desired value of prediction index again, for section Grind analysis.
Brief description of the drawings
Accompanying drawing described herein be for providing a further understanding of the present invention, constituting the part of the application, but Inappropriate limitation of the present invention is not constituted, in the accompanying drawings：
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the invention；
Fig. 2 is stochastic variable mean μ0When=100, the normal distribution curve schematic diagram of different m values.
Specific embodiment
Describe the present invention in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and specific embodiment, illustrative examples therein and say It is bright to be only used for explaining the present invention but not as a limitation of the invention.
As shown in figure 1, the one kind described in this specific embodiment can embody burst key element to town and country and social development indices The segmented Forecasting Methodology of influence, it is concretely comprised the following steps：
Step 1：Collect and intend prediction town and country and social development indices annual growth for many years；
Step 2：List influence and intend the burst key element of prediction index, and the year by burst elements affect is found out in data collection Part, reject the index annual growth in these times；
Step 3：Calculate the plan prediction index average annual growth rate λ after screeningAveragely；
Step 4：The annual growth scope of statistics is 5 parts, and calculate annual growth appear in the range of frequency n, calculate Obtain every section of distribution density of annual growth scope；
Step 5：With past annual growth scope as abscissa, year is drawn by ordinate of the distribution density of the growth rate scope Growth rate distribution curve；
Step 6：Stochastic variable average and form parameter are constantly corrected, until the annual growth in normal distribution curve and step 5 Distribution curve is essentially coincided；
Step 7：During prediction, 0-1 random number α are automatically generated every year per year first, calculate normal distribution random number μ, then substitute into Formula obtains intending prediction index annual growth λ from now on；
Step 8：In current criteria value A0On the basis of, calculated by segmented method and intend prediction index desired value annual from now on, Finally give the index background future developing trend；
Step 9：Consider burst key element government regulation F1Whether may occur in time span of forecast, generation then triggers burst key element F1 =1, otherwise F1=0；
Step 10：If F1=0 directly calculates the prediction index future on the basis of the background future developing trend of step 8 gained Desired value；If F1=1 is input into government regulation possibility time of origin T from now onF1, and determine that it is sent out according to conventional similar case Influence amplitude ss after life to prediction index development trendliWith influence duration LF1, calculate TF1~TF1+LF1Consider between year Burst key element F1Prediction index future desired value afterwards；
Step 11：Repeat step 9, step 10, counts burst key element natural calamity F successively respectively2, man-made disaster F3, public defend Make trouble part F4, social security events F5Influence, finally give and intend prediction index following desired value for many years from now on；
Step 12：Intend prediction index following desired value for many years from now on according to gained is calculated, following hair of prediction index is intended in analysis Exhibition trend.
It is described further below for the inventive method, particular content is as follows：
First, the component of forecast classification of town and country and social development indices
The component of forecast of town and country and social development indices can be divided into normal constituents and happen suddenly according to its occurrence frequency and regularity to be wanted Plain two classes：Normal constituents refer to a series of key elements necessarily affected to the future developing trend generation of institute's prediction index, above key element Influence to institute's prediction index is lasting, regularity, can be simple by autoregressive method, exp-function method or curtain function method etc. Regression prediction method is set up when only ftracture normal constituents, the development prediction formula of prediction index.
Burst key element refers to that probability of happening is smaller and does not fix, but once occurs to produce the development trend of institute's prediction index A series of key elements (such as government regulation, natural calamity, man-made disaster, public health event, the social security events of significant impact Deng).Influence of the above key element to prediction index is temporary (influence time of occurrence, influence amplitude, influence duration all right and wrong Fixed).When the key element that happens suddenly is not triggered, it is not necessary to consider its influence to prediction index future developing trend, but once touch Hair should then count the burst key element, will otherwise cause the irrationality of index prediction, untrue property.
2nd, the segmented index prediction method based on normal constituents
Influence of the normal constituents to prediction index development trend is stable, lasting, when only considering normal constituents, prediction index Annual growth meet normal distribution.Normal distribution is most widely used continuous probability distribution, in production and scientific experiment very The probability distribution of many stochastic variables can be approximate described with normal distribution, it is characterized in that " clock " shape curve.Therefore, normal state Distribution be one in all very important probability distribution in the fields such as mathematics, physics and engineering, have at statistical many aspects Great influence power.
When only considering normal constituents, meet normal distribution prediction index annual growth distribution situation can using formula (1) and (2) weibull shown in is distributed to represent.
λNot=λAveragely×μ/μ0 (1)
μ=μ0×(-1×log(1-α))1/m (2)
In formula, λNotIt is the following annual growth of prediction index；λAveragelyIt is average to count the current annual growth that obtains for many years Value；μ is normal distribution random number；μ0It is stochastic variable average；α is 0~1 random number；M is form parameter, as the term suggests m values Difference will directly affect produced random-number distribution form.Fig. 2 is μ0When=100, the normal distribution curve of different m values shows It is intended to.
Shown in prediction index annual growth distribution density such as formula (3) as obtained by formula (1) (2) is calculated.
In formula, f (μ) is annual growth distribution density.
The present invention meets the common recognition of normal distribution based on most town and country and social development indices annual growth, refers in probability theory Lower prediction index background development trend is led, is comprised the following steps that：
Step 1：Collect and intend prediction town and country and the nearly annual growth for many years of social development indices.To ensure prediction accuracy, data is received Collection should be as detailed as possible, time span at least 20 years；
Step 2：List influence and intend the burst key element of prediction index, and the year by burst elements affect is found out in data collection Part, the increment rate in these times is rejected when growth rate background trend prediction formula is set up；
Step 3：Calculating eliminates the plan prediction index average annual growth rate λ after not considering the timeAveragely；
Step 4：The annual growth scope of statistics is 5 parts of (l1~l5), and calculate annual growth and appear in li(i=1~5) In the range of frequency ni, useEvery section of distribution density of annual growth scope is obtained (when data volume is more than 50 years, also may be used It is subdivided into 10 parts)；
Step 5：With past annual growth scope as abscissa, year is drawn by ordinate of the distribution density of the growth rate scope Growth rate distribution curve；
Step 6：μ in continuous correction formula (2) and (3)0And m, until the corresponding normal distribution curve of formula (3) and step 5 In annual growth distribution curve essentially coincide；
Step 7：During index prediction, 0~1 random number α is automatically generated every year, normal distribution random number μ is calculated by formula (2)1、 μ2..., then substitute into formula (1) and obtain intending prediction index First Year annual growth λ from now onNot 1, Second Year annual growth λNot 2……；
Step 8：In current criteria value A0On the basis of, calculated by segmented method shown in formula (4) and to intend prediction index from now on Desired value, finally gives the index background future developing trend.
Ai=Ai-1×(1+λNon- i) (4)
In formula, AiIt is the 1 year from now on following desired value of prediction index.
3rd, the triggering of burst key element, influencing mechanism
Will burst key element Fj(j=1~5) are divided into government regulation F1, natural calamity F2, man-made disaster F3, public health event F4、 The group of social security events 5 five.
Burst key element FjDefine two states：Triggering (Fj=1) and do not trigger (Fj=0), non-triggering state is burst key element FjDefault conditions.If happening suddenly key element F in the time span of forecast of town and country and social development indicesjCan not possibly occur, then FjConsistently equal to 0, the no longer background future developing trend to the index is modified.If but burst key element F in time span of forecastjMay occur, then from Fj It is estimated that year occurs, count FjInfluence (as shown in formula (5)) to index background future developing trend, specifically influences amplitude With the influence duration with reference to conventional similar case.
Before burst key element occurs：Ai=Ai-1×(1+λNon- i)
Burst key element occur after~burst elements affect terminate：
Ai=Ai-1×(1+λNon- i)×(1+βji) (5)
After burst elements affect terminates：Ai=Ai-1×(1+λNon- i)
In formula, βjiIt is burst key element FjAfter occurring to the 1 year from now on influence amplitude of following desired value of prediction index.
A kind of burst key element that embodies of the present invention is on town and country and the segmented prediction side of social development indices influence Method, it has following two big advantages：1. in the case where the reasonable of burst key element, reliability are estimated, can accurately embody burst key element prediction and refer to Mark the influence of future trend；2. by choosing whether triggering burst key element and being input into different possibility time of origins, can be respectively The different future developing trends of prediction index are obtained, so as to probe into common law, the polytropy of future trend is analyzed.Therefore predict Result can provide more rational plan prediction index value is used for urban and rural planning；Burst key element can be reacted again whether to occur and send out The raw time, to the Different Effects of prediction index future desired value, is analyzed for scientific research.
The above is only better embodiment of the invention, therefore all constructions according to described in present patent application scope, The equivalent change or modification that feature and principle are done, is included in the range of present patent application.

Claims (1)

1. it is a kind of to embody the segmented Forecasting Methodology that burst key element influences on town and country and social development indices, it is characterised in that it Concretely comprise the following steps：
Step 1：Collect and intend prediction town and country and social development indices annual growth for many years；
Step 2：List influence and intend the burst key element of prediction index, and the year by burst elements affect is found out in data collection Part, reject the index annual growth in these times；
Step 3：Calculate the plan prediction index average annual growth rate λ after screeningAveragely；
Step 4：The annual growth scope of statistics is 5 parts, and calculate annual growth appear in the range of frequency n, calculate Obtain every section of distribution density of annual growth scope；
Step 5：With past annual growth scope as abscissa, year is drawn by ordinate of the distribution density of the growth rate scope Growth rate distribution curve；
Step 6：Stochastic variable average and form parameter are constantly corrected, until the annual growth in normal distribution curve and step 5 Distribution curve is essentially coincided；
Step 7：During prediction, 0-1 random number α are automatically generated every year per year first, calculate normal distribution random number μ, then substitute into Formula obtains intending prediction index annual growth λ from now on；
Step 8：In current criteria value A0On the basis of, calculated by segmented method and intend prediction index desired value annual from now on, most The index background future developing trend is obtained eventually；
Step 9：Consider burst key element government regulation F1Whether may occur in time span of forecast, generation then triggers burst key element F1= 1, otherwise F1=0；
Step 10：If F1=0 directly calculates prediction index future on the basis of the background future developing trend of step 8 gained Desired value；If F1=1 is input into government regulation possibility time of origin T from now onF1, and determine that it occurs according to conventional similar case Influence amplitude ss to prediction index development trend afterwardsliWith influence duration L F1, calculate TF1~TF1+ L F1Consider between year Burst key element F1Prediction index future desired value afterwards；
Step 11：Repeat step 9, step 10, counts burst key element natural calamity F successively respectively2, man-made disaster F3, public health Event F4, social security events F5Influence, finally give and intend prediction index following desired value for many years from now on；
Step 12：Intend prediction index following desired value for many years from now on according to gained is calculated, following hair of prediction index is intended in analysis Exhibition trend.
CN201710003028.4A 2017-01-04 2017-01-04 It is a kind of to embody the segmented Forecasting Methodology that burst key element influences on town and country and social development indices Pending CN106803133A (en)

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