CN106780041A - Power network project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting method based on particle cluster algorithm - Google Patents
Power network project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting method based on particle cluster algorithm Download PDFInfo
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- CN106780041A CN106780041A CN201710072622.9A CN201710072622A CN106780041A CN 106780041 A CN106780041 A CN 106780041A CN 201710072622 A CN201710072622 A CN 201710072622A CN 106780041 A CN106780041 A CN 106780041A
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- project
- transmitting
- converting electricity
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- investment forecasting
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
- G06Q40/06—Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E40/00—Technologies for an efficient electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
Power network project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting method based on particle cluster algorithm, including the analysis of project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting key index；Project of transmitting and converting electricity construction unit is analyzed；Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting system anlysis.Application of the invention can enable investor that the situation of new construction cost is accurately held in first stage of construction, censorship personnel can carry out rational, quick examination to specific preliminary project cost condition, the subjective factor influence during Cost Management is reduced, the target that investment decision provides foundation is reached for.From the decision phase of project of transmitting and converting electricity, it is determined that the key index of influence project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting, excavate history engineering data, determine the crucial construction unit of project of transmitting and converting electricity, project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting system is built using particle cluster algorithm, so that for power network authorities at different levels and relevant unit control project of transmitting and converting electricity cost, construction investment of making rational planning for provide theoretical foundation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting method based on particle cluster algorithm, belong to power engineering skill
Art field.
Background technology
Power industry is a capital-intensive industry, and power engineering construction is also a system engineering for complexity how
On the premise of completion time of project and construction quality is ensured, rational control engineering cost, be in electric power infrastructure one it is eternal
Theme.In the last few years, Cost for Electric Power Engineering goes up very fast, and capital collection difficulty is very big, Engineering Cost Management Levels into
It is the fast-developing key of influence power construction.Power engineering design is universal design, and the performance space of design is smaller, deposits
In some problems, for example：Construction criteria, design style disunity；Type of equipment is more, standby redundancy poor universality；Design is commented
Examine, reply dispute is more, time-consuming；Build high with operating cost etc., the thing followed is the numerous difficulties in Engineering Cost Management.
At present, Cost for Electric Power Engineering method is mainly based upon the construction costs method of quota of budgetary estimate, is covered by according to quota
For amount of calculation, budgetary estimate accurately can be carried out to construction investment.But the use of method is excessively stiff, market warp is not met
The demand of Ji.For especially for a new construction, on the premise of non-comprehensive collection engineering information amount, it is impossible to which cost is given
Give and fast and effectively instructing, usually influenced whether the enthusiasm and creativeness of investor and manager.Therefore, set up a kind of
The method of science, rational project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting is very necessary.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is directed to a kind of not enough power network project of transmitting and converting electricity based on particle cluster algorithm of offer of prior art
Investment forecasting method.
The technology path that the present invention takes is：By Analysis on Data Mining electricity grid substation engineering and line project
Historical data, determines the key index of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting, determines that the key of project of transmitting and converting electricity is single using statistical check
Position engineering, is finally based on particle cluster algorithm and builds a power network project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting model, and by actual defeated
The validity of investment forecasting model is verified in the analysis of cases of power transformation engineering.
Forecasting Methodology of the present invention includes：
（1）Project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting key index is analyzed
Labor project of transmitting and converting electricity development, project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting principle, by the comparative analysis of document,
Excavate project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting in terms of advantage and deficiency, summarize project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting influence because
Element, including external environment condition, the market factor and construction scale of projects；
For more scientific discussion project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting key index applicability in the present invention, the present invention is using master
The mathematical statistics instrument such as constituent analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis, analyzes the historical data of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity, including become
Electrical engineering, overhead transmission line engineering, cable run engineering, explore influence journey of the engineering technology index to project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting
Degree, sets up the key index collection of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting；
On the basis of data statistic analysis, it is determined that it is suitable for the key index of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting, to power transmission and transformation work
The importance degree of the key index of journey investment forecasting is scored, and project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
The weight of key index, and build project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting index system.
（2）Project of transmitting and converting electricity construction unit is analyzed
There is substantial amounts of engineering surplus phenomenon in project of transmitting and converting electricity, in order to deeper into analysis be specifically which expense occurs finishing
It is remaining, project of transmitting and converting electricity budgetary estimate and Engineering Settlement are analyzed respectively using mathematical statistics software, find Budgetary Estimates and work
The construction unit that journey clearing conspicuousness is differed；In order to analyze the crucial construction unit of project of transmitting and converting electricity, examined using paired sample T
Test and analysis is compared to the different construction unit budgetary estimates of construction cost, mounting cost and cost of equipment and clearing average；Pairing
Sample T inspections are the differences that value is observed by obtaining each pair, if sample average differential nearly zero, paired sample does not exist significance difference
It is different；Conversely, if sample average is significantly not zero, there is significant difference in paired sample；In the application, if paired sample T test
T values more than 2, sig values less than 0.05, then it is assumed that there is significant difference in the average of paired sample.By the result of statistical analysis, enter
One step combines proportion of the different construction units in whole engineering cost, determines the crucial list of the engineering of substation project and line project
Position engineering.
（3）Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting system anlysis
The crucial construction unit of importance and project of transmitting and converting electricity according to project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting key index, the present invention
Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting model is built based on particle cluster algorithm, using the historical data of project of transmitting and converting electricity, by model
Optimization is calculated, to reach the purpose of the precision for improving project of transmitting and converting electricity investment estimation；According to the research of Kennedy, population is calculated
Method has and is different from the characteristic of other evolution algorithms, such as orthomutation, quantization show and operate, locally optimal solution and the overall situation
Optimal solution, to improve the efficiency of decision-making of objective optimization；
Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting model based on particle cluster algorithm, a set of Pareto optimal solutions are drawn by aid decision making person；
First, first object function is that project of transmitting and converting electricity cost is minimized, including cost of construction, installation fee and installation cost；Second, entirely comment
Estimate model need meet two constraintss include：（1）The requirement of project of transmitting and converting electricity cost no more than Quota design,（2）Often
Individual key index should control to change interval rational；Whole model needs to be calculated by MATLAB；In calculating process, grain
The thought and step of swarm optimization include new after initialization particle-renewals particle rapidity and the renewal of each particle of position-calculating
Fitness value-determination individuality optimal value and global optimum；It is final realize the control of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity surplus rate 10% with
Interior target.
Beneficial effects of the present invention：It is newly-built that application of the invention can enable investor accurately be held in first stage of construction
The situation of construction costs, censorship personnel can carry out rational, quick to specific preliminary project cost condition
Examine, reduce the subjective factor influence during Cost Management, be reached for the target that investment decision provides foundation.From power transmission and transformation work
The decision phase of journey sets out, it is determined that the key index of influence project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting, excavates history engineering data, determines defeated
The crucial construction unit of power transformation engineering, project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting system is built using particle cluster algorithm, so that for power network is each
Level authorities and relevant unit control project of transmitting and converting electricity cost, construction investment of making rational planning for provide theoretical foundation.
Specific embodiment
Forecasting Methodology of the present invention includes：
（1）Project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting key index is analyzed
Labor project of transmitting and converting electricity development, project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting principle, by the comparative analysis of document,
Excavate project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting in terms of advantage and deficiency, summarize project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting influence because
Element, including external environment condition, the market factor and construction scale of projects；
For more scientific discussion project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting key index applicability in the present invention, the present invention is using master
The mathematical statistics instrument such as constituent analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis, analyzes the historical data of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity, including become
Electrical engineering, overhead transmission line engineering, cable run engineering, explore influence journey of the engineering technology index to project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting
Degree, sets up the key index collection of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting；
On the basis of data statistic analysis, it is determined that it is suitable for the key index of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting, to power transmission and transformation work
The importance degree of the key index of journey investment forecasting is scored, and project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
The weight of key index, and build project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting index system.
（2）Project of transmitting and converting electricity construction unit is analyzed
There is substantial amounts of engineering surplus phenomenon in project of transmitting and converting electricity, in order to deeper into analysis be specifically which expense occurs finishing
It is remaining, project of transmitting and converting electricity budgetary estimate and Engineering Settlement are analyzed respectively using mathematical statistics software, find Budgetary Estimates and work
The construction unit that journey clearing conspicuousness is differed；In order to analyze the crucial construction unit of project of transmitting and converting electricity, examined using paired sample T
Test and analysis is compared to the different construction unit budgetary estimates of construction cost, mounting cost and cost of equipment and clearing average；Pairing
Sample T inspections are the differences that value is observed by obtaining each pair, if sample average differential nearly zero, paired sample does not exist significance difference
It is different；Conversely, if sample average is significantly not zero, there is significant difference in paired sample；In the application, if paired sample T test
T values more than 2, sig values less than 0.05, then it is assumed that there is significant difference in the average of paired sample.By the result of statistical analysis, enter
One step combines proportion of the different construction units in whole engineering cost, determines the crucial list of the engineering of substation project and line project
Position engineering.
（3）Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting system anlysis
The crucial construction unit of importance and project of transmitting and converting electricity according to project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting key index, the present invention
Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting model is built based on particle cluster algorithm, using the historical data of project of transmitting and converting electricity, by model
Optimization is calculated, to reach the purpose of the precision for improving project of transmitting and converting electricity investment estimation；According to the research of Kennedy, population is calculated
Method has and is different from the characteristic of other evolution algorithms, such as orthomutation, quantization show and operate, locally optimal solution and the overall situation
Optimal solution, to improve the efficiency of decision-making of objective optimization；
Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting model based on particle cluster algorithm, a set of Pareto optimal solutions are drawn by aid decision making person；
First, first object function is that project of transmitting and converting electricity cost is minimized, including cost of construction, installation fee and installation cost；Second, entirely comment
Estimate model need meet two constraintss include：（1）The requirement of project of transmitting and converting electricity cost no more than Quota design,（2）Often
Individual key index should control to change interval rational；Whole model needs to be calculated by MATLAB；In calculating process, grain
The thought and step of swarm optimization include new after initialization particle-renewals particle rapidity and the renewal of each particle of position-calculating
Fitness value-determination individuality optimal value and global optimum；It is final realize the control of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity surplus rate 10% with
Interior target.
Claims (1)
1. the power network project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting method of particle cluster algorithm is based on, it is characterised in that:The Forecasting Methodology bag
Include：
（1）Project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting key index is analyzed
Labor project of transmitting and converting electricity development, project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting principle, by the comparative analysis of document,
Excavate project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting in terms of advantage and deficiency, summarize project of transmitting and converting electricity cost investment forecasting influence because
Element, including external environment condition, the market factor and construction scale of projects；
For more scientific discussion project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting key index applicability in the present invention, the present invention is using master
The mathematical statistics instrument such as constituent analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis, analyzes the historical data of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity, including become
Electrical engineering, overhead transmission line engineering, cable run engineering, explore influence journey of the engineering technology index to project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting
Degree, sets up the key index collection of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting；
On the basis of data statistic analysis, it is determined that it is suitable for the key index of project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting, to power transmission and transformation work
The importance degree of the key index of journey investment forecasting is scored, and project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
The weight of key index, and build project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting index system；
（2）Project of transmitting and converting electricity construction unit is analyzed
There is substantial amounts of engineering surplus phenomenon in project of transmitting and converting electricity, in order to deeper into analysis be specifically which expense occurs finishing
It is remaining, project of transmitting and converting electricity budgetary estimate and Engineering Settlement are analyzed respectively using mathematical statistics software, find Budgetary Estimates and work
The construction unit that journey clearing conspicuousness is differed；In order to analyze the crucial construction unit of project of transmitting and converting electricity, examined using paired sample T
Test and analysis is compared to the different construction unit budgetary estimates of construction cost, mounting cost and cost of equipment and clearing average；Pairing
Sample T inspections are the differences that value is observed by obtaining each pair, if sample average differential nearly zero, paired sample does not exist significance difference
It is different；Conversely, if sample average is significantly not zero, there is significant difference in paired sample；In the application, if paired sample T test
T values more than 2, sig values less than 0.05, then it is assumed that there is significant difference in the average of paired sample;By the result of statistical analysis, enter
One step combines proportion of the different construction units in whole engineering cost, determines the crucial list of the engineering of substation project and line project
Position engineering；
（3）Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting system anlysis
The crucial construction unit of importance and project of transmitting and converting electricity according to project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting key index, the present invention
Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting model is built based on particle cluster algorithm, using the historical data of project of transmitting and converting electricity, by model
Optimization is calculated, to reach the purpose of the precision for improving project of transmitting and converting electricity investment estimation；According to the research of Kennedy, population is calculated
Method has and is different from the characteristic of other evolution algorithms, such as orthomutation, quantization show and operate, locally optimal solution and the overall situation
Optimal solution, to improve the efficiency of decision-making of objective optimization；
Project of transmitting and converting electricity investment forecasting model based on particle cluster algorithm, a set of Pareto optimal solutions are drawn by aid decision making person；
First, first object function is that project of transmitting and converting electricity cost is minimized, including cost of construction, installation fee and installation cost；Second, entirely comment
Estimate model need meet two constraintss include：（1）The requirement of project of transmitting and converting electricity cost no more than Quota design,（2）Often
Individual key index should control to change interval rational；Whole model needs to be calculated by MATLAB；In calculating process, grain
The thought and step of swarm optimization include new after initialization particle-renewals particle rapidity and the renewal of each particle of position-calculating
Fitness value-determination individuality optimal value and global optimum；It is final realize the control of power network project of transmitting and converting electricity surplus rate 10% with
Interior target.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109685558A (en) * | 2018-12-14 | 2019-04-26 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of Cost for Electric Power Engineering evaluation system based on BIM technology |
| CN109934455A (en) * | 2019-01-26 | 2019-06-25 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of electricity power engineering construction cost assessment method |
| CN112541631A (en) * | 2020-12-10 | 2021-03-23 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司 | Expense prediction method for transformer substation engineering |
-
2017
- 2017-02-10 CN CN201710072622.9A patent/CN106780041A/en active Pending
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109685558A (en) * | 2018-12-14 | 2019-04-26 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of Cost for Electric Power Engineering evaluation system based on BIM technology |
| CN109934455A (en) * | 2019-01-26 | 2019-06-25 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of electricity power engineering construction cost assessment method |
| CN112541631A (en) * | 2020-12-10 | 2021-03-23 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司 | Expense prediction method for transformer substation engineering |
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