CN106779477B - It is a kind of meter and demand response multimode Power System Reliability calculation method - Google Patents
It is a kind of meter and demand response multimode Power System Reliability calculation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses the multimode Power System Reliability calculation methods of a kind of meter and demand response.Markov process model based on load, establishes the load multimode Markov process model of meter and demand response, and demand response therein includes that load is cut down and load transfer；Using timing Monte-carlo Simulation Method, system power vacancy is obtained, and calculates the Power System Reliability of meter and demand response, including expected loss of energy and electric power deficiency time probability.The present invention has certain directive significance to the Power System Reliability theory analysis for considering demand response, provides scientific basis in the Power System Reliability of meter and demand response under the new situation to preferably analyzing and assessing.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems fields, more particularly to a kind of meter and the multimode of demand response
Power System Reliability calculation method.
Background technique
The development of smart grid and Information and Communication Technology, so that the two-way interaction that flexible load participates in smart grid becomes
It may.Flexible load participates in demand response, system economy not only can be improved, it may also reduce environmental pollution.However, flexibly negative
Lotus, which participates in demand response, will affect to the safe and reliable operation of electric system.For example, load transfer may cause " on peak plus peak ",
To be brought a negative impact to system safe and reliable operation.The timing that method based on simulation can preferably show load is special
Property, it is reliability of the better assessment system under new environment, proposes that a kind of meter and the multimode electric system of demand response can
By property calculation method.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is being directed to complicated electric power system, a kind of meter is provided and the multimode electric system of demand response can
By property calculation method.
The technical solution adopted by the present invention the following steps are included:
1) based on the Markov process model of load, the load multimode Markov process of meter and demand response is established
Model, specifically: within the Operation of Electric Systems time, by flexible load FLlIt is divided into reduction plans FLCl, transfer load FLSlWith
Vary without load FLWl, i.e. FLl=FLCl+FLSl+FLWl,1≤l≤N；
2) timing Monte-carlo Simulation Method is used, analog variable is initialized, is repeatedly simulated, until reaching total simulation
Frequency nsThen stop simulating；
3) according to the data simulated every time, the reliability of electric system, including not enough power supply phase are calculated using the following equation
Prestige value (EENS) and electric power deficiency time probability (LOLP):
LOLP (t)=m (t)/ns(△D′n>0)
Wherein, nsTo simulate total degree, △ D 'nIndicate the system power vacancy of meter and demand response when n-th simulation, tn
System power insufficient duration when simulating for n-th, t indicate Operation of Electric Systems time, mnIt (t) is to be counted in time t
And the system power vacancy of demand response is greater than 0 number, systematic electricity deficiency time probability changes with system operation time.
As shown in Figure 1, the Markov process model of load refers in system operation time in the step 1), will bear
Lotus is divided into the load level of different periods, shares N number of load level and is connected with timing, load level l and load level (l+1) it
Between state transition rate be λl,l+1, 1≤l≤N-1, the state transition rate between load level N and load level 1 is λN,1；And it will
Load LlIt is divided into uncontrollable load ULlWith flexible load FLl, i.e. Fl=ULl+FLl,1≤l≤N。
State transition rate λ in the step 1) between load level l and load level (l+1)l,l+1=△ Tl,l+1, △
Tl,l+1Indicate the time interval between load level l and load level (l+1).
Simulation is that process in detail below is respectively adopted for the load level in system run the period to be simulated every time:
2.1) state characteristic of generating set is simulated, obtains the generated energy of generating set in system operation time；
2.2) the when program process of load is simulated, obtains the load in system operation time；
2.3) by electric system generated energy G and load LlIt is compared, and then selectivity is controlled, is counted and needed
System power vacancy after asking response.
In the step 2.2), if electric system generated energy G is not less than load Ll, then it is controlled without demand response,
I.e. system power vacancy is 0；If electric system generated energy G is less than load Ll, then implement demand response mode and controlled.Into
Power shortage before row demand response is △ D=Ll- G takes demand response control so that load becomes Ll' after, system function
Rate vacancy becomes △ D '=Ll′-G。
The implementation demand response mode is controlled specifically by flexible load in such a way that load is cut down, load transfer
The combination of mode or both the above mode is controlled.
The load is cut down mode and is referred in flexible load FLlMiddle to cut down load, the load of reduction is current
Reduction plans FLC under period in load levell。
The load branch mode refers to the load transfer amount FLS of the load level l of present periodlIt is transferred to next
On the load level (l+1) of period, while by the load transfer amount FLS of the load level of a upper periodl-1When being transferred to current
On the load level l of section.
Obtain demand response afterload are as follows:
Ll'=Ll-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1
=ULl+FLl-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1
=ULl+FLWl+FLSl-1
Wherein, Ll' indicate the load after demand response control, LlLoad when indicating in load level l.
The implementation demand response mode carry out control use by load reduction in a manner of and load branch mode combination
It is handled, specifically:
If flexible load FL under present periodlLess than power shortage the △ D, i.e. FL before controll< △ D, then after controlling
Power shortage are as follows:
△ D '=Ll'-G=Ll-G-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1>0
Wherein, Ll' it is the load implemented after demand response, Ll'=Ll-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1；
If flexible load FL under present periodlNot less than power shortage the △ D, i.e. FL before controll>=△ D, then control it
Power shortage afterwards are as follows:
△ D '=△ D-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1。
When the step 2.2) simulates the when program process of load, the initial load level durationUse with
Lower formula calculates:
Assuming that the load level that system is carved at the beginning is l0, generate a random number U0Obey it on section (0,1)
It is uniformly distributed, then the initial load level durationAre as follows:
Wherein, lnU0Indicate natural logrithm.
Above-mentioned formula assumes that the load level that system is carved at the beginning is l0, generate a random number U0It is set to obey area
Between being uniformly distributed on (0,1), continue to generate random number and obtain the load level duration, until all load levels are held
The continuous time reaches preset system operation time.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The method of the present invention considers that demand response participates in the operation of electric system, based on multimode Markov process model and
Timing Monte Carlo simulation algorithm evaluation considers the Power System Reliability of demand response, can Accurate Analysis consider demand response
The reliability of complicated electric power system.The present invention can effectively assess the practical electricity after considering demand response in terms of engineer application
The operation risk of Force system provides reference for Operation of Electric Systems, guarantees the security reliability of system operation.
The present invention further improves Power System Reliability theory in terms of theory analysis, to the theory point of electric system
Analysis and engineer application play a significant role, for solve consider demand response Power System Reliability Analysis provide one it is capable it
Effective technological approaches.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the Markov process model schematic diagram of load of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the load Markov process model during present invention implementation demand response.
Fig. 3 is that the present invention implements the load Markov process model after demand response.
Fig. 4 is load timing simulation figure.
Fig. 5 is embodiment grid topological diagram.
Fig. 6 is embodiment systematic electricity deficiency time probability (LOLP) variation diagram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention with reference to embodiments and its attached drawing be described further it is as follows.
The embodiment of the present invention is as follows:
For the present embodiment by taking improved IEEE RBTS system as an example, the network topological diagram of the system is as shown in Figure 5.System
Load peak is 185MW, and system operation time is set as 100 hours.Load be divided into 24 hours 4 load levels (low ebb,
Usually section 1, peak, usually section 2), wherein 0-6h is low-valley interval, and load level is the 67% of daily load peak value；6-8h is
Usually section 1, load level are the 86% of daily load peak value；8-21h peak period, load level are daily load peak value
100%；21-24h is that usually section 2, load level are the 83% of daily load peak value.The rate of transform of system different load level is such as
Shown in table 1.The total amount of flexible load accounts for the 20% of load peak.The present embodiment considers three kinds of demand response modes, the first is
Load cuts down mode, and all flexible loads can carry out load reduction；Second is load branch mode, and all is flexible negative
Lotus can carry out load transfer；The third is that load is cut down and load shifts while implementing, and participates in load reduction and load transfer
Flexible load respectively account for 50%.The present embodiment will calculate separately Reliability Index under these three demand response modes, and will
It is compared.In addition, embodiment without demand in order to illustrate influence of the demand response to power train reliability is implemented to ring
On the basis of the system reliability answered.The Monte Carlo simulation number of the present embodiment is set as 100,000 times.
The rate of transform between 1 system different load level of table
| The rate of transform (/h) | Low ebb | Usually section 1 | Peak | Usually section 2 |
| Low ebb | - | 1/6 | 0 | 0 |
| Usually section 1 | 0 | - | 1/2 | 0 |
| Peak | 0 | 0 | - | 1/13 |
| Usually section 2 | 1/3 | 0 | 0 | - |
Calculation of Reliability is carried out using method proposed by the invention.When to be 100h between when the system is operated, without
The Reliability Index expected loss of energy (EENS) of demand response is 3.9513MWh, systematic electricity deficiency time probability
(LOLP) as shown in Fig. 6 (solid line).After the demand response for considering three kinds of different modes, when the system is operated between when being 100h, it is real
The expected loss of energy (EENS) for applying a system is respectively 0.0426MWh, 3.5101MWh, 1.3305MWh, and systematic electricity is not
Sufficient time probability (LOLP) is such as shown in Fig. 6 (dotted line).By the calculating and comparative analysis of the two reliability indexs, can see
Out, the reliability of system also with system operation time increase and reduce, implement load and cut down to improving system reliability
Effect is maximum；Followed by implement load simultaneously to cut down and load transfer；Worst is to implement load transfer.It in the present embodiment can be with
See, the electric power deficiency time probability for only carrying out load transfer is greater than the system for not carrying out demand response in some periods, says
It is bright that system reliability is not necessarily improved for the mode that the transfer of implementation load carries out demand response proposed in the present invention,
Further demonstrate the necessity of this research.
Finally it should be noted that above example is merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention rather than its limitations, although
Referring to above-mentioned example, the present invention is described, those of ordinary skills in the art should understand that；It still can be to this hair
Bright specific embodiment is modified or is replaced on an equal basis, and any modification or same without departing from spirit and scope of the invention
Replacement, is intended to be within the scope of the claims of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter and demand response, it is characterised in that this method includes following
Step:
1) based on the Markov process model of load, the load multimode Markov process mould of meter and demand response is established
Type, specifically: within the Operation of Electric Systems time, by flexible load FLlIt is divided into reduction plans FLCl, transfer load FLSlNo
Load FLW need to be changedl, i.e. FLl=FLCl+FLSl+FLWl,1≤l≤N；
2) timing Monte-carlo Simulation Method is used, analog variable is initialized, is repeatedly simulated, until reaching total number realization
nsThen stop simulating；
3) according to the data simulated every time, the reliability of electric system, including expected loss of energy are calculated using the following equation
(EENS) and electric power deficiency time probability (LOLP):
LOLP (t)=m (t)/ns(△D′n>0)
Wherein, nsTo simulate total degree, △ D 'nIndicate the system power vacancy of meter and demand response when n-th simulation, tnIt is n-th
System power insufficient duration when secondary simulation, t indicate the Operation of Electric Systems time, and m (t) is meter and demand in time t
The system power vacancy of response is greater than 0 number, and systematic electricity deficiency time probability changes with system operation time；
The Markov process model of load refers in system operation time in the step 1), and load is divided into different periods
Load level, share N number of load level and be connected with timing, state transition rate between load level l and load level (l+1)
For λl,l+1, the state transition rate between load level N and load level 1 is λN,1；And by load LlIt is divided into uncontrollable load
ULlWith flexible load FLl, i.e. Fl=ULl+FLl,1≤l≤N；
Simulation is that process in detail below is respectively adopted for the load level in system run the period to be simulated every time:
2.1) state characteristic of generating set is simulated, obtains the generated energy of generating set in system operation time；
2.2) the when program process of load is simulated, obtains the load in system operation time；
2.3) by electric system generated energy G and load LlIt is compared, and then selectivity is controlled, is counted and demand is rung
System power vacancy after answering.
2. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 1 and demand response, special
Sign is: the state transition rate λ in the step 1) between load level l and load level (l+1)l,l+1=1/ △ Tl,l+1, △
Tl,l+1Indicate the time interval between load level l and load level (l+1).
3. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 1 and demand response, special
Sign is: in the step 2.2), if electric system generated energy G is not less than load Ll, then controlled without demand response, i.e.,
System power vacancy is 0；If electric system generated energy G is less than load Ll, then implement demand response mode and controlled.
4. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 3 and demand response, special
Sign is: the implementation demand response mode is controlled specifically by flexible load in such a way that load is cut down, load transfer
The mode that mode or both the above mode are implemented simultaneously carries out control processing.
5. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 4 and demand response, special
Sign is: the load is cut down mode and is referred in flexible load FLlIt is middle to cut down load, when the load of reduction is current
Reduction plans FLC in the lower load level of sectionl。
6. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 4 and demand response, special
Sign is: the load branch mode refers to the load transfer amount FLS of the load level l of present periodlIt is transferred to next
On the load level (l+1) of period, while by the load transfer amount FLS of the load level of a upper periodl-1When being transferred to current
On the load level l of section.
7. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 3 and demand response, special
Sign is: the implementation demand response mode carry out control use by load reduction in a manner of and load branch mode combination into
Row processing, specifically:
If flexible load FL under current loads levellLess than power shortage the △ D, i.e. FL before implementation demand responsel< △ D, then
Implement the power shortage after demand response are as follows:
△ D '=Ll'-G=Ll-G-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1>0
Wherein, Ll' it is the load implemented after demand response, Ll'=Ll-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1, LlIt indicates to be in load level l
When load；
If flexible load FL under current loads levellNot less than power shortage the △ D, i.e. FL before implementation demand responsel>=△ D,
Then implement the power shortage after demand response are as follows:
△ D '=△ D-FLCl-FLSl+FLSl-1
Wherein, △ D ' is the power shortage implemented after demand response.
8. the multimode Power System Reliability calculation method of a kind of meter according to claim 3 and demand response, special
Sign is: when the step 2.2) simulates the when program process of load, the initial load level durationUse with
Lower formula calculates:
Wherein, U0Expression obeys equally distributed random number, lnU on section (0,1)0Indicate natural logrithm.
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| CN107622173B (en) * | 2017-10-16 | 2020-10-30 | 新疆金风科技股份有限公司 | Method and system for predicting reliability level of wind generating set |
| CN108281960B (en) * | 2018-01-04 | 2020-02-21 | 浙江大学 | Method for rapidly calculating reliability of power distribution network system with distributed power supply |
| CN108416529B (en) * | 2018-03-16 | 2021-07-27 | 太原理工大学 | Wind power grid-connected system node short-term reliability assessment method considering demand response |
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