CN106777978B - A kind of reservoir water supply security methods of risk assessment based on combined probability analysis - Google Patents
A kind of reservoir water supply security methods of risk assessment based on combined probability analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of reservoir water supply security methods of risk assessment based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis.The present invention relates to surface water environment risk assessment study fields.The present invention judges water quality, water variation tendency the following steps are included: (1) acquisition reservoir inflow water quality many years data, determines that storage major pollutant and water change typical season；(2) marginal probability distribution of water quality, water is determined respectively, and the joint probability function of water quality and quantity is determined using Frank Copula model；(3) unfavorable scene probability of happening of typical season is calculated using joint probability function, realizes the risk assessment to reservoir water supply security to each section water quality, water progress scene setting is put in storage according to quality standard for surface water and reservoir yield parameter.The present invention proposes to be based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis method, determines the probability that unfavorable scene occurs, the risk assessment of reservoir water supply security is realized, to solve the problems, such as that reservoir water supply security provides scientific basis.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to reservoir water supply security Study on Risk Assessment fields, and in particular to one kind is based on reservoir inflow and water quality
The reservoir water supply security methods of risk assessment of combined probability analysis, provides scientific basis for the comprehensive treatment of reservoir.
Background technique
Reservoir is closely bound up with human being's production and life as having the water body for supplying water, filling the multiple functions such as general, for a long time with
Carry out the attention of Reservoir Water Quality and water variation tendency and law study by domestic and foreign scholars.Since reservoir is by the effect of human activity
Larger, pollution source is wide, approach is more, type is complicated, and water quality, the water volume condition of reservoir are directly related to the water supply peace in entire city
Entirely.Reservoir water supply security risk refers to that Reservoir Water Quality, water are lower than the probability of certain standard.Use reasonable reservoir water supply security
Methods of risk assessment has extremely important meaning to urban water supply safety.
Reservoir water supply security risk assessment at present is mainly the water or the single index of water quality point to reservoir or storage tributary
It is not controlled, is not accounted for the influence of water, water quality multivariable collective effect to reservoir water supply security.Such as it is directed to the confession of water
Water security assessment, Pei Jinping and Ma Xin duckweed[1]Weihe River mainstream middle reaches are analyzed using Kendall rank correlation coefficient, R/S method
Four seasons Runoff Trend；Soviet Union's he etc.[2]It analyzes 1954 and arrives with accumulated anomaly method and Mann-Kendall trend test method
The variation characteristic of the hydrometric station the Wen Jiachuan above rainfall of cave open country river valley and runoff between 2009, and become by runoff and rainfall trend
The comparison of change infers that the influence of Human dried bloodstains is the main reason for causing Runoff Tendency variation；Bae etc.[3]Utilize Mann-
Kendall trend test method and regression analysis probe into the domestic runoff of South Korea and rainfall year scale, season scale and moon scale
Long-term change trend rule, and take precautions against drought as Flood Control in Certain Area and guidance is provided and is suggested.The same analysis side for being directed to water quality water supply security
Method application is also very universal, such as Boyacioglu[4]Based on including nitrate nitrogen, sulfate, Na+The multidimensional number of equal water chemistry parameter
According to data, using Mann-Kendall method of inspection and slop estimation method to the water quality comparison of Turkey's Tahtali river valley
It is analyzed；Wu Tao etc.[5]The water quality therebetween of the Yellow River Xuzhou City section 2004 to 2008 is measured using Danid trend test
The conspicuousness of Pollution Tendency；Li Yanping etc.[6]3 important sections for choosing the domestic Fenhe River in Yuncheng and foam water river are research area,
With CODCrIndex as research parameter, with Spearman rank correlation coefficient method to its 2002 to 2008 variation tendency into
It has gone quantitative analysis, and has advised accordingly to the improvement of quality of water environment.In conclusion reservoir water supply security risk is commented at present
It is mostly, which to estimate research, is respectively controlled for water or the single index of water quality, and water, water quality multivariable collective effect are comprehensively considered
The research influenced on reservoir water supply security is less.
It has been applied at present in multiple fields currently based on the probability analysis method of multivariate joint distribution.Such as Chen Zi
Son etc.[7]It constructs different zones highest to surge joint probability distribution model between height and corresponding wind speed, over the years most for sea area
Height is surged highly and the experience of corresponding wind speed is studied and the simulation of typhoon and Storm events value, and with this for instructing ocean work
Journey design work；In terms of environment, Wang etc.[8]Different quality Index Establishment multivariable joint probability is distributed, it is exceeded to carry out
Constitution's risk quantitative analysis and correlation analysis；Open Xiang etc.[9]Joint probability distribution is established to Huaihe River water quality and water, and is applied
Among water quantity and quality integrated management.In conclusion although the Joint Distribution probability analysis method of multivariable is in multiple necks
Domain is applied and achieves preferable achievement, but is not used for the water supply security risk of assessment reservoir at present.
In conclusion since the water quantity and quality situation of change in storage tributary is most important to the water supply security of reservoir,
This patent is to be put in storage tributary as research object.According to domestic and international present Research, while considering that being put in storage river discharge and water quality is total to
Influence of the same-action to reservoir water supply security risk.In addition, providing reservoir inflow and water how under reservoir water supply security target
The joint probability distribution section of matter directly serves in regional water resources protection and administrative decision, although water resource and water environment
The trend of scientific management, but current research is not yet related to.
Bibliography of the present invention is as follows:
[1] Weihe River mainstream middle section Change of Runoff research arid area agricultural is ground in the past 50 years by Pei Jinping, the new duckweed of horse
Study carefully, 2013,31 (6): 214-219.
[2] Soviet Union congratulates, Kang Weidong, Cao Zhenzhen .1954-2009 year Zhu Liang cave open country river valley precipitation and Runoff Trend point
Analyse underground water, 2013,35 (6): 14-17.
[3]Bae D.H.,Jung I.W.,Chang H.Long-term trend of precipitation and
runoff in Korean river basins.Hydrological Processes,2008,22(14):2644-2656.
[4]Boyacioglu H.,Boyacioglu H.Water pollution sources assessment by
multivariate statistical methods in the Tahtali Basin,Turkey.Environmental
Geology,2008,54(2):275-282.
[5] the Old Huang River such as Wu Tao Xuzhou City section water quality assessment and Pollution Tendency analysis Chinese Resources are comprehensive
It utilizes, 2009,27 (12): 24-26.
[6] Fenhe River the such as Li Yanping and the remonstrate with domestic aquatic environment index analysis of trend in water river transport city and countermeasure science and technology feelings
Report exploitation and economy, 2010,30:160-162.
[7] such as Chen Zi Son are surged based on the seashore of Copula function and are highly analyzed with the Visceral metastasis of corresponding wind speed, ocean
Journal, 2012,34 (6): 11-18.
[8]Wang Y.K.,Ma H.Q.,Sheng D.,Wang D.Assessing the interactions
between chlorophyll a and environmental variables using Copula method.Journal
of Hydrologic Engineering,2012,17(4):495-506.
[9] water quantity and quality joint distribution function Journal of Hydraulic Engineering of the such as Xiang based on Copula function is opened, 2011,42 (4):
483-189.
Summary of the invention
Previous reservoir supplies water to manage and only control water or the single index of water quality, fails to consider that multivariable is made jointly
Under, influence such as the joint probability distribution section of reservoir inflow and water quality to reservoir water resource, to cannot reasonably assess
It is associated between water supply security risk and reservoir inflow, water quality, affects the validity of decision；Simultaneously because the water quantity and quality of storage
Situation of change play the role of to the water supply security of reservoir it is vital, therefore the present invention propose it is a kind of based on reservoir inflow and water
Matter combined probability analysis method is guaranteeing the certain water supply security of reservoir (i.e. guarantee reservoir one to be put in storage tributary as perpetual object
Determine water quality and quantity) target under, determine the probability that storage water quality and quantity unfavorable scene of typical season occurs, realize and supply water to reservoir
The risk assessment of safety provides scientific basis to solve reservoir water resource water environmental problems.
The present invention is implemented as follows: a kind of reservoir water supply security wind based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis
Dangerous appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that the following steps are included:
S1 obtains many years data of reservoir inflow and water quality, using Mann-Kendall model respectively to water quality, water
Index carries out trend analysis, determines the major pollutant of reservoir storage and the typical season of water variation；
S2 determines storage water quality and quantity joint probability function using Frank Copula model；
S3 carries out scene to each section water quality of storage, water according to parameters such as quality standard for surface water and reservoir yields
Setting, utilizes established storage water quality and quantity joint probability function, calculates unfavorable feelings of typical season using joint probability function
Scape probability of happening divides reservoir water supply security risk class accordingly, and then realizes the risk assessment to reservoir water supply security.
Wherein step S2 determines storage water quality and quantity joint probability function using Copula model, determines storage water quality and quantity
Variation tendency and probability, comprising the following steps:
S21 determines reservoir inflow marginal probability using Pearson came III (P-III) type distribution curve；
S22 compares normal distribution, logarithm normal distribution, four kinds of Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution distribution patterns, and is intended
Right optimal evaluation selects the probability distribution for being suitble to storage water quality.
S23 determines storage water quality and quantity joint using Frank Copula model according to storage water quality and quantity marginal probability
Probability function.
Wherein step S3, according to parameters such as quality standard for surface water and reservoir yields to each section water quality of storage, water
Scene setting is carried out, realizes the risk assessment to reservoir, comprising the following steps:
S31, according to quality standard for surface water (five classes) standard limited value setting storage section water quality scene；Confession according to reservoir
Water, evaporation capacity and rainfall setting storage section water scene；
S32, using established storage water quality and quantity joint probability function, the generation for calculating unfavorable scene of typical season is general
Rate, and then realize the risk assessment to reservoir water supply security.
For the variation for grasping Reservoir Water Quality water, the water quantity and quality situation of change for understanding each tributary of storage is most important.This
Invention uses Copula joint ensemble, calculates the probability that unfavorable scene of typical season occurs, be reservoir water quality protection with
Management provides suggestion.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the reservoir water supply security methods of risk assessment the present invention is based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis；
Fig. 2 is that the present invention is based on the specific estimation flows of the reservoir water supply security risk assessment of reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis
Figure.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail.Below for illustrating
The present invention, but be not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 is that the present invention carries out the reservoir water supply security risk based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis
The flow chart of appraisal procedure.As depicted in figs. 1 and 2, the present invention the following steps are included:
S1 obtains many years data of reservoir inflow and water quality, using Mann-Kendall model respectively to water quality and quantity
Index carries out trend analysis, determines the major pollutant of reservoir storage and the typical season of water variation.
According to the flow and water quality data in acquired many years storage river, the variation of reservoir reservoir inflow and water quality is carried out
Analysis.Using Mann-Kendall method to reservoir upstream storage tributary many years measured discharge data of water quality carry out moon scale with
Season scale trend analysis.The typical season that water variation is determined according to Incoming water quantity Long-term change trend result, according to water quality trend
Result of variations, which is found to reduce water quality, contributes biggish water quality indicator, as the reservoir major pollutant.
S2 determines storage water quality and quantity joint probability function using Copula model, determines water quality comparison and probability.
S21, the determination of reservoir inflow marginal probability distribution.
The selection of reservoir inflow probability distribution uses III type distribution curve of P-.It is put in storage tributary flow according to a preliminary estimate using moments method
Statistical parameter:Cy、Cs, the parameter for determining final distribution curve is adjusted using suitable collimation method.
Pearson came III:
In formula, α, β and b respectively indicate shape, scale and the location parameter of distribution, wherein α, β >=0 ,-∞ < b <+∞；
Γ (α) is gamma function.
S22 is put in storage the determination of water quality marginal probability distribution.
The selection of storage Water-quality Probability distribution is by comparison normal distribution, logarithm normal distribution, Weibull distribution, gamma point
Four kinds of distribution patterns of cloth are compared analysis, and carry out degree of fitting optimal evaluation, finally select the probability point for being suitble to storage water quality
Cloth type.Four kinds of probability-distribution functions are as follows:
(1) normal distribution:
In formula, μ is the mathematic expectaion of stochastic variable, and σ is the standard deviation of stochastic variable.
(2) logarithm normal distribution:
In formula, μ and σ is respectively the logarithmic average and logarithm standard deviation of stochastic variable x.
(3) Weibull distribution:
In formula, k and λ are respectively scale parameter and form parameter.
(4) Gamma distribution:
In formula, α, β respectively indicate the shape of distribution, scale, wherein a, β >=0；Γ (α) is gamma function.
S23 is put in storage the determination of the joint probability distribution function of water quality and quantity.
Select Frank Copula function as the Copula function for the joint probability distribution for calculating reservoir inflow and water quality.
The parameter Estimation of Frank Copula is carried out using correlation metric method, solves obtain the parameter of Frank Copula as the following formula,
Determine the flow in storage river and the joint probability distribution function of water quality.
Frank Copula function:
In formula, C (u1, u2) it is dimensional Co pula function, u1,u2For marginal probability distribution, i.e. u1=F1(X1), u2=F2
(X2), θ is the parameter of Copula function.
S3 is configured the scene of reservoir inflow and water quality, and is calculated using joint probability function and unfavorable scene occurs
Probability, and divide reservoir water supply security risk class, realize the risk assessment to reservoir water supply security.
S31, scene setting.
(1) water quality scene is arranged
It is configured according to quality standard for surface water (GB3838-2002) to each section water quality scene is put in storage, by taking N, P as an example
It carries out scene setting (referring to table 1).
(part) is arranged in 1 water quality scene of table
(2) water scene is arranged
According to the typical season determined in S1, dropped using the monthly average water supply, monthly average evaporation capacity, monthly average in the season
Rainfall calculates the section water standard value (referring to following formula) in the season, is set according to water scene of the standard value to typical season
It sets (referring to table 2).
B=(G+Z-J)/(K*N)
In formula: B is seasonal volume standard value m3/s；G monthly average water supply m3；Z monthly average evaporation capacity m3；J monthly average drop
Rainfall m3；K is conversion coefficient 2.59*106；N is storage tributary quantity.
The setting of 2 water scene of table
S32, water quality and quantity combined probability analysis.
Each scene combination of S31 is divided into advantageous scene, medium scene, unfavorable scene.Wherein advantageous scene is considered water quality
Classification belongs to I class or II class water (C1, C2), while flow belongs to middle high flow capacity or high flow capacity (Q4, Q5)；Rough sledding is considered
Water quality classification belongs to IV class or V class water (C4, C5), while flow belongs under time low discharge (Q1, Q2)；Other combined situations
Then it is considered moderate condition.Using the joint distribution function of the S2 flow established and water quality, three kinds of combined states are calculated (favorably,
It is medium and unfavorable) probability of happening value, and the delimitation (referring to table 3) of reservoir water supply security risk class is sentenced according to the present invention
It cuts off the water supply the risk class (Pyatyi) of library water supply security.
3 reservoir water supply security risk class of table divides
| Advantageous scene probability of happening | Greater than 70% | Greater than 70% | Greater than 50% | Greater than 50% | Less than 50% |
| Unfavorable scene probability of happening | Less than 15% | Greater than 15% | Less than 25% | Greater than 25% | —— |
| Risk class | Ⅴ | Ⅳ | Ⅲ | Ⅱ | Ⅰ |
To sum up, the present invention is reasonably to assess to be associated between reservoir water supply security risk and flow, water quality, proposes to pass through
Coupla function constructs reservoir inflow water quality joint probability function, and the joint combined to reservoir inflow with water quality difference scene is general
Rate carries out calculating analysis, determines the probability of happening of typical case's season unfavorable scene, realizes the risk assessment to the water supply security of reservoir,
Scientific basis is provided to solve this global water environmental problems of reservoir water supply security.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of reservoir water supply security methods of risk assessment based on reservoir inflow and water quality combined probability analysis, it is characterised in that
Itself the following steps are included:
S1 obtains many years data for being put in storage each section flow and water quality, carries out trend analysis to water quality, water index, determines
The major pollutant of reservoir storage and the typical season of water variation；
S2 determines water quality and quantity joint probability function using Frank Copula model；
In the step S2, the selection of reservoir inflow marginal probability distribution uses Pearson came III (P-III) type distribution curve, uses
Moments method is put in storage the statistical parameter of tributary flow according to a preliminary estimate, and the ginseng for determining final distribution curve is adjusted using suitable collimation method
Number, P-Ⅲdistribution curve indicate are as follows:
In formula, α, β and b respectively indicate shape, scale and the location parameter of distribution, wherein α, β >=0 ,-∞ < b <+∞；Γ(α)
For gamma function；
The selection of water quality marginal probability distribution is by comparing normal distribution, logarithm normal distribution, Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution four
Kind distribution pattern, and degree of fitting optimal evaluation is carried out, select the probability distribution for being suitble to storage water quality；
In the step S2, lesser Frank Copula combined probability analysis method is required using to data and mechanism description, is built
Vertical storage water quality and quantity joint probability distribution function；
S3 carries out scene setting to each section water quality and quantity is put in storage, established joint probability function is utilized to determine typical season
The probability that unfavorable scene occurs realizes the risk assessment to reservoir water supply security.
2. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step S1, using Mann-Kendall model to water
Matter, water carry out trend analysis, judge the major pollutant of reservoir storage and the typical season of Incoming water quantity variation.
3. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step S3, according to quality standard for surface water and reservoir
Water supply parameter to be put in storage each section water quality, water carries out scene setting, using established water quality and quantity joint probability function,
The probability of happening of unfavorable scene of typical season is calculated, and divides reservoir water supply security risk class accordingly, and then is realized to reservoir
The risk assessment of water supply security.
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| CN107730110B (en) * | 2017-10-12 | 2021-09-24 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Drainage basin flood control-water supply-water environment improvement comprehensive scheduling evaluation technical method |
| CN109377064B (en) * | 2018-10-31 | 2021-09-07 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban multi-reservoir water source water quantity distribution method based on comprehensive evaluation information |
| CN109598414B (en) * | 2018-11-13 | 2023-04-21 | 创新先进技术有限公司 | Risk assessment model training, risk assessment method and device and electronic equipment |
| CN109815627B (en) * | 2019-02-22 | 2020-10-09 | 北京师范大学 | Runoff variation influence factor determination method and system |
| CN110334908B (en) * | 2019-06-03 | 2021-12-03 | 华中科技大学 | Multi-risk assessment method and system for water supply power generation environment of drainage basin water resource |
| CN110580327A (en) * | 2019-08-19 | 2019-12-17 | 武汉大学 | River ecological flow calculation method |
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