CN106772696A - For the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of assimilation of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting - Google Patents
For the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of assimilation of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting, comprise the following steps：Step S1：Treatment is total to dodge data, and carries out quality control to it；Step S2：Obtain through the total sudden strain of a muscle data after quality control；Step S3：Total data that dodges is converted into relative humidity, and is given with the form of sounding data；Step S4：By relative humidity with the three-dimensional variational systems for dissolving WRFDA, realize to total assimilation for dodging data.Total sudden strain of a muscle data is processed in the step S2 and is the step of carrying out quality control to it：Step S11：Setting needs the analog parameter of total sudden strain of a muscle data of conversion；Step S12：Total sudden strain of a muscle data is carried out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process；A kind of total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting that the present invention is provided, can realize fast and effectively assimilating total sudden strain of a muscle data, short forecasting of the enhancing to Convective Weather System on existing operational forecast platform.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the communications field, relate particularly to a kind of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting and always dodge conversion generation
The method for managing humidity.
Background technology
Lightning is a kind of common atmospheric discharge phenomenon.Ion and Type of hydrometeors are the main carriers of electric charge in cloud.It is non-
Electrification by induction is Electrification mechanism main in convective cloud.In the environment of supercooling in convective cloud, ice graupel particle is constantly
Collision is piled up along with gas phase diffusion and super-cooling waterdrop, and small ice crystal is constantly increased.Electric charge is exchanged between impingment particle,
Then separation electric charge is carried out on cloud yardstick by sedimentation and vertical movement.With the continuous accumulation of electric charge, lightning is occurred.
Thus, lightning is the product of strong convection.Substantial connection between lightning and dynamics and microphysical processes means lightning data
Can be used for monitoring mesoscale convective system occurrence and development.Lightning location net data is a kind of newer meteorological observation money
Material, its application and research are one of current hotspot research theme.How general the monitoring of existing mesoscale convective system depend on
Strangle radar.But radar itself has some shortcomings, such as by the influence of topography it is big, spatial and temporal resolution is relatively low, investigative range is confined to land
Etc..Lightning location net data is different from Radar Data, and it is not influenceed by landform, and spatial and temporal resolution is above Doppler's thunder
Up to data.With deepening continuously that lightning location net logging data application is studied, lightning Data Assimilation technology turns into the heat of research at present
Point.The difficult point of lightning Data Assimilation is during lightning flash rates, Electric Field Distribution or charge density etc. are not current value pattern
Pattern variable or diagnosis amount.Thus, the thinking of lightning Data Assimilation is exactly to attempt to look for a suitable Observation Operators by lightning
Location data is connected with pattern variable or diagnostic variable, or sets up a strong lightning data agency of physics harmony
Variable, can finally be assimilated with various methods.
Researchers have attempted various method assimilation lightning data.Alexander et al. [1999] first proposed sudden strain of a muscle
The benefit of electric Data Assimilation.They combine with routine data lightning observational data with a kind of classical image processing techniques
Sparse region obtains the precipitation rate of continuous time series.Result shows lightning data compared with other data, the improvement to forecasting
Become apparent.The lightning that Chang et al. [2001] also have authenticated continuous time section acts on behalf of precipitation rate and can improve follow-up pre-
Report.Lightning data is converted to convective precipitation hastily afterwards for adjusting latent heat profile by some researchers.Papadopoulos et
Al. [2005] land used dodge data nudge patterns in moisture profile and by its transformation be experience profile.Result display assimilation lightning
Forecast improvement after data to convective precipitation is 12 hours.
It is numerous at present to the probing into of lightning Data Assimilation in, merely using lightning data as control triggering Cumulus parameterization
The switch of scheme, the adjustment to strong convection system is extremely limited, and when convection current physical background field stimulation itself is poor, effect does not show
Write；Lightning is converted to relation in GSI is acted on behalf of echo and is assimilated again, due to the various methods defect of itself, to strong right
It is not fine that the improvement of streaming system maintains timeliness, and closes on precipitation and can exist and a certain degree of over-evaluate or underestimate；Fierro etc.
The nudging methods of people are very effective for the convection current initialization of lightning observation area, but nudging methods are adjusted in assimilation
Physical quantity it is less, for suppressing the limited in one's ability of false convection current and adjustment convection current.At present in the pattern of many service operations, adopt
Radar and conventional data are assimilated with three-dimensional variational method, if can be realized to the same of lightning data with identical method
Change, then application of the lightning Data Assimilation in real-time service system can be relatively easy to.Three-dimensional variational method is based on pattern simulation
Region on the basis of background error covariance, can preferably coordinate to adjust the related physical quantity in the radius of influence so that analysis in itself
Field power is more coordinated, so as to the improvement timeliness of strong convection system after improving assimilation.Thus, in the present invention, dodged based on total and
The statistical relationship of vapor-to-liquid ratio, an example research is assimilated and is applied to using three-dimensional variational method to total sudden strain of a muscle.
The content of the invention
For the defect of prior art, the present invention is intended to provide conversion is always dodged in a kind of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting
The method for acting on behalf of humidity, it is possible to achieve fast and effectively assimilate to total sudden strain of a muscle data, the dynamicly coordinated of enhancing assimilation post analysis,
Improve the short forecasting of Convective Weather System.
Technical scheme is as follows：Conversion is always dodged the invention provides a kind of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting
The method for acting on behalf of humidity, comprises the following steps：For the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of assimilation of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting, its
It is characterised by, comprises the following steps：
Step S1：Treatment is total to dodge data, and carries out quality control to it；
Step S2：Obtain through the total sudden strain of a muscle data after quality control；
Step S3：Total data that dodges is converted into relative humidity, and is given with the form of sounding data；
Step S4：By relative humidity with the three-dimensional variational systems for dissolving WRFDA, realize to total assimilation for dodging data.
Further, total sudden strain of a muscle data is processed in the step S2 and is the step of carrying out quality control to it：
Step S11：Setting needs the analog parameter of total sudden strain of a muscle data of conversion；
Step S12：Total sudden strain of a muscle data is carried out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process；
Further, the step of data is always dodged in the acquisition in the step S2 be：
Step S21：The moment that selection contracurrent system takes place carries out the setting of assimilation time；
Step S22：Extract total sudden strain of a muscle data.
Further, it is by total sudden strain of a muscle the step of data is converted to vapor-to-liquid ratio in the step S3：
Step S31：Using formulaFrequancy digit conversion will always be dodged for steam
Mixing ratio, wherein X dodge frequency, Q for totalsatIt is saturation vapour mixing ratio；QgIt is hail graupel mixing ratio；The coefficient difference of A, B, C, D, α
It is 0.81,0.2,0.01,0.25,2.2；
Step S32：The vapor-to-liquid ratio being converted to will always be dodged and be converted to relative humidity, and given with the form of sounding data
Go out.
Further, it is to the method that total sudden strain of a muscle data carries out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process in the step S12：
By radiant signal reception time is less than 1s or is classified as same lightning；
Different discharge processes by distance less than 7km are classified as same lightning.
Further, extraction total time period for dodging data in the step S22 starts first 10 minutes to starting for assimilation
Terminate extracting during assimilation.
Further, described total sudden strain of a muscle data includes the total sudden strain of a muscle frequency, the longitude data of lightning that add up in 10 minutes
And the latitude data of lightning.
A kind of total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting that the present invention is provided, can be existing
On some operational forecast platforms, using with assimilation radar and conventional data identical framework, realize that to dodge data quick to total
Effective assimilation, the dynamicly coordinated of enhancing assimilation post analysis, can significantly improve and face pre- to the short of Convective Weather System
Report.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly of the specific embodiment of the invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to specific
The accompanying drawing to be used needed for implementation method or description of the prior art is briefly described.In all of the figs, similar element
Or the general reference by being similar in part is identified.In accompanying drawing, each element or part might not draw according to actual ratio.
Fig. 1 shows the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the embodiment of the present invention
Flow chart；
Fig. 2 shows the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the embodiment of the present invention
1200UTC observation and Exp.CTL, Exp.lightn Beijing area skew-T figure；
Fig. 3 shows the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the embodiment of the present invention
Contrast test choose region set and model topography high-level schematic；
Fig. 4 shows the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the embodiment of the present invention
Contrast test in observation precipitation and each group test prediction precipitation schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
Translation proxy is always dodged to the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the invention with reference to specific embodiment wet
The method of degree is described further：
Conversion is always dodged referring to shown in accompanying drawing 1, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting
The method for acting on behalf of humidity, comprises the following steps：
Step S1：Treatment is total to dodge data, and carries out quality control to it；
Step S2：Obtain through the total sudden strain of a muscle data after quality control；
Step S3：Total data that dodges is converted into relative humidity, and is given with the form of sounding data；
Step S4：By relative humidity with the three-dimensional variational systems for dissolving WRFDA, realize to total assimilation for dodging data.
Total sudden strain of a muscle data is processed in the present embodiment, in the step S2 and is the step of carrying out quality control to it：
Step S11：Setting needs the analog parameter of total sudden strain of a muscle data of conversion；
Step S12：Total sudden strain of a muscle data is carried out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process；
Wherein, in step S11, the physical parameter scheme applied in the present embodiment has WSM6 Microphysicals scheme, RRTM spokes
Penetrate scheme, Goddard shortwave radiations scheme, RUC lands face scheme, MYNN PBL schemes, Grell 3D set Cumulus parameterizations
Scheme (is opened in the region of 9km).
Further, the step of data is always dodged in the acquisition in the step S2 be：
Step S21：The moment that selection contracurrent system takes place carries out the setting of assimilation time；
Step S22：Extract total sudden strain of a muscle data.
In the present embodiment, it is by total sudden strain of a muscle the step of data is converted to vapor-to-liquid ratio in the step S3：
Step S31：Using formulaFrequancy digit conversion will always be dodged for steam
Mixing ratio, wherein X dodge frequency, Q for totalsatIt is saturation vapour mixing ratio；QgIt is hail graupel mixing ratio；The coefficient difference of A, B, C, D, α
It is 0.81,0.2,0.01,0.25,2.2；
Step S32：The vapor-to-liquid ratio being converted to will always be dodged and be converted to relative humidity, and given with the form of sounding data
Go out.
In the present embodiment, it is to the method that total sudden strain of a muscle data carries out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process in the step S12：
By radiant signal reception time is less than 1s or is classified as same lightning；
Different discharge processes by distance less than 7km are classified as same lightning.
In the present embodiment, extraction total time period for dodging data in the step S22 starts first 10 minutes to opening for assimilation
Begin to terminate extracting during assimilation.
In the present embodiment, described total sudden strain of a muscle data include the total sudden strain of a muscle frequency added up in 10 minutes, lightning through the number of degrees
According to this and lightning latitude data.
The strong convective weather process that the embodiment of the present invention have chosen the influence of on July 31st, 2007 Beijing-tianjin-hebei Region does individual
Example research.Four groups of experiments are designed altogether：
One (Exp.CTL) of experiment：After assimilation 0000UTC Micaps conventional datas, lightning and Radar Data are not assimilated, directly
Connect forecast；
Two (Exp.radar) of experiment：On the basis of experiment one, assimilation 0300, the 0400, footpath of 0500UTC Beijing radar
Aweather and reflectivity data；
Three (Exp.lightn) of experiment：On the basis of experiment one, assimilation 0300,0400,0500UTC Beijing SAFIR
3000 lightning location nets always dodge data；
Four (Exp.li_ra) of experiment：On the basis of experiment one, assimilation 0300,0400,0500UTC Beijing radar is radially
Wind, reflectivity data and the lightning location nets of Beijing SAFIR 3000 always dodge data.
The relied on system of assimilation is WRFDA (the Weather Research and Forecasting model
Data assimilation system), simulation system is WRF (3.7.1 versions).WRF systems are American National atmospheric research
Center, national marine and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental forecasting centre, forecast system laboratory, the research of naval of Air Force Weather Agency
Laboratory, Oklahoma university, Federal Aviation management board cooperate the Small and Medium Sized number system of exploitation.Its simulation
Yardstick can extend to the thousands of miles scope of global simulation from several kilometers of regions or mesoscale scope.
Shown in Figure 3, always to dodge translation proxy wet for the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the embodiment of the present invention for Fig. 3
The region that the contrast test of the method for degree is chosen is set and model topography high-level schematic.Take double in the experiment of the present embodiment
Nested region, resolution ratio is respectively 9km and 3km.High-resolution second weight region mainly includes this strong convection system shadow
The ground such as loud Hebei, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong., from the northwestward in Hebei province to southeastern direction, height is progressively for model topography
Successively decrease.The low extreme terrain in the Beijing area northwest southeast high, is advantageous to strong convection system and develops.In northwest air-flow
Condition exist, the strong cold air on upper strata invasion, the strong frontogenesis gone out by low layer Forced By Topography may be the generation and development of squall line
Good dynamic conditions is provided.
Shown in Figure 4, always to dodge translation proxy wet for the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting of the embodiment of the present invention for Fig. 4
Observation precipitation and each group test prediction precipitation schematic diagram in the contrast test of the method for degree.In the experiment of the present embodiment, precipitation
Time period be 0730 to 1330UTC.Observation precipitation data is the combination product that TRMM observes data and automatic weather station.From
0730 to 1330UTC, the precipitation center for observing is predominantly located at Beijing western and the north, Tianjin south, the Bohai Sea, Liaoning Province south
Portion and Shandong Province south.Six hours cumulative maximum precipitation in Shandong Province and Liaoning Province reach more than 40 millimeters.In Exp.CTL
In experiment, Pekinese relatively observes at precipitation center by north.The precipitation center in Liaoning Province does not forecast to be come and the rain band in Shandong
Substantially over-evaluate.
In Exp.radar experiments, there is provided a result similar to Exp.CTL.After assimilation Radar Data, to Hebei
Saving northern over-evaluating for precipitation center has slight improvement.The Bohai Sea is also closer with the rain band of In The Northern Shandong Province to be observed.
In Exp.lightn experiments, forecast is better than preceding two groups of experiments.In Northern Hebei Province, Tianjin south, Beijing south
With Liaoning Province south, Precipitation forecast amount is almost consistent with observed, and more accurate on the settling in an area of precipitation.However, in Bohai Sea
Extra large big portion region and In The Northern Shandong Province, accumulative rainfall are over-evaluated substantially, and this is probably the reason for producing excessive spuious strong convection.
In Exp.li_ra experiments, the forecast of the rain band of Northern Hebei Province is substantially accurate, but Liaoning Province precipitation center mistake
In by north.Additionally, the rain band of In The Northern Shandong Province is still overestimated.From the point of view of qualitatively, after Exp.lightn experiment assimilation lightning data,
The forecast of accumulative rainfall in 6 hours is closest with observation.
Table 1
Table 1 provides the TS scorings of each group experiment, rate of false alarm FAR and hit rate POD and (is divided into 1mm, 5mm, 10mm, 15mm
With five threshold values of 20mm, overstriking font is labeled as the optimum of each threshold value).
In Table 1, TS represents the overall prognostic capabilities that pattern falls to precipitation and precipitation, and its value is higher to represent forecast
Ability is more accurate.FAR to be represented and observe ratio shared by no frequency in warning total degree after forecast sends, the lower expression of its value
Prediction ability is more accurate.POD is represented in the total degree that observation occurs, and ratio shared by the number of times of warning is made in forecast, and its value is got over
Height represents that prediction ability is more accurate.
In table 1, each group experiment is quantitatively given to 6 hours prediction abilities of accumulative rainfall.In TS scorings, except height
Threshold value 20mm, remaining four threshold value (1mm, 5mm, 10mm, 15mm), Exp.lightn scorings are optimal；In rate of false alarm FAR,
Each group test scores gap is not it is obvious that having certain rate of false alarm more than higher than 5mm threshold values；In hit rate POD scorings,
In all 5 threshold values (1mm, 5mm, 10mm, 15mm and 20mm), Exp.lightn scorings are highest.Aggregate qualitative and fixed
Amount analysis, it can be seen that what assimilation lightning data can effectively improve Convective Weather System closes on precipitation forecast.
Assimilation lightning data to closing on precipitation except that can be efficiently modified, and the improvement to sounding profile is also apparent.Fig. 3 is
1200UTC, after assimilating 7 hours, observation and Exp.CTL, Exp.lightn experiment skew-T scheme.Emagram is also known as temperature-logarithm
Tonogram.The calculating of Temperature Humidity Characteristicsof amount, gas pay thickness, instable energy and the feature height of atmospheric condition can be carried out with it,
It is a kind of auxiliary chart commonly used in meteorology.
Compared with radar data is assimilated, the time that assimilation lightning data is maintained is longer.Observation sounding profile 850hPa with
Under have an obvious inversion layer, Exp.CTL experiments do not capture this point, and after assimilating lightning data, Exp.lightn then compared with
Inversion form must be depicted for accurate, and temperature profile is tubaeform with the inversion that dew-point temperature profile is constituted with observation profile base
This is consistent, it follows that improve in assimilating after lightning data in strong convective weather it is accurate for what temperature, humidity were forecast
Property.
No matter from precipitation forecast, or sounding profile improvement aspect is closed on, the equal table of data is dodged with WRF-3DVAR assimilations are total
Reveal good applicability, and it is more long to the forecast improvement timeliness of strong convective weather, it is current numerical model business platform assimilation
Lightning data provides good feasibility.
By above-mentioned conclusion, a kind of assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting provided in an embodiment of the present invention is always dodged and is turned
The method of reason humidity of regenerating, will act on behalf of humidity information with WRFDA three-dimensional variational systems are dissolved, and realize to after total assimilation for dodging data
Relative other the every contrast tests of experiment improve scarce report faced to the short of strong strong convection system, and can operate with existing three-dimensional become
In separate service system.
Although by reference to preferred embodiment, invention has been described, is not departing from the situation of the scope of the present invention
Under, various improvement can be carried out to it and part therein can be replaced with equivalent.Especially, as long as in the absence of structure punching
Prominent, the every technical characteristic being previously mentioned in each embodiment can combine in any way.The invention is not limited in text
Disclosed in specific embodiment, but all technical schemes including falling within the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (7)
1. the total method for dodging translation proxy humidity of assimilation of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting is used for, it is characterised in that comprised the following steps：
Step S1：Treatment is total to dodge data, and carries out quality control to it；
Step S2：Obtain through the total sudden strain of a muscle data after quality control；
Step S3：Total data that dodges is converted into relative humidity；
Step S4：By relative humidity with the three-dimensional variational systems for dissolving WRFDA, realize to total assimilation for dodging data.
2. the method that translation proxy humidity is always dodged in the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be, total sudden strain of a muscle data is processed in the step S2 and is the step of carrying out quality control to it：
Step S11：Setting needs the analog parameter of total sudden strain of a muscle data of conversion；
Step S12：Total sudden strain of a muscle data is carried out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process.
3. the method that translation proxy humidity is always dodged in the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be, be the step of data is always dodged in the acquisition in the step S2：
Step S21：The moment that selection contracurrent system takes place carries out the setting of assimilation time；
Step S22：Extract total sudden strain of a muscle data.
4. the method that translation proxy humidity is always dodged in the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be, be by total sudden strain of a muscle the step of data is converted to vapor-to-liquid ratio in the step S3：
Step S31：Using formulaFrequancy digit conversion will always be dodged for steam mixes
Than wherein X dodges frequency, Q for totalsatIt is saturation vapour mixing ratio；QgIt is hail graupel mixing ratio；The coefficient of A, B, C, D, α is respectively
0.81、0.2、0.01、0.25、2.2；
Step S32：The vapor-to-liquid ratio being converted to will always be dodged and be converted to relative humidity, and with WRFDA routine sounding datas
Form is given.
5. the method that translation proxy humidity is always dodged in the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting according to claim 2, it is special
Levy and be, be to the method that total sudden strain of a muscle data carries out returning sudden strain of a muscle to process in the step S12：
By radiant signal reception time is less than 1s or is classified as same lightning；
Different discharge processes by distance less than 7km are classified as same lightning.
6. the method that translation proxy humidity is always dodged in the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting according to claim 3, it is special
Levy and be, it is characterised in that extraction total time period for dodging data in the step S22 starts first 10 minutes to starting for assimilation
Terminate extracting during assimilation.
7. the method that translation proxy humidity is always dodged in the assimilation for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting according to claim 3, it is special
Levy and be, described total sudden strain of a muscle data includes the total sudden strain of a muscle frequency, the longitude data of lightning and the lightning that add up in 10 minutes
Latitude data.
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| CN108415101A (en) * | 2018-02-14 | 2018-08-17 | 国家气象信息中心 | The rarefaction method of second grade Sounding Data |
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| CN108931774B (en) * | 2018-06-26 | 2022-06-21 | 重庆市气象台 | Method and system for inspecting convective rainfall recognition product based on lightning data |
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