CN106709609B - A kind of method of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway station amount of entering the station - Google Patents
A kind of method of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway station amount of entering the station Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of method that the present invention discloses PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station, should be the following steps are included: construct the linear function formula between the station amount of entering the station and section section flow；Linear fit is carried out based on the historical data values of the station amount of entering the station and section section flow, determines parameter to be estimated；Section flow based on given section calculates the target amount of entering the station at corresponding station；Passenger flow control strategy is determined based on the target amount of entering the station.The present invention applies to urban track traffic for passenger flow organization and administration, and the subway station amount of entering the station is limited by PREDICTIVE CONTROL, controls Subway Tunnel load factor, alleviates passenger flow congestion phenomenon, so that large passenger flow be avoided to cause excessive pressure to route or gauze.Further, it by the classification to the section section volume of the flow of passengers, instructs subway station in actual operation management, grading control measure according to circumstances is taken to the amount of entering the station in different periods, keep the amount of entering the station control more reasonable.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to urban rail transit technology fields.It enters the station more particularly, to a kind of PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway station
The method of amount.
Background technique
With the fast development of economic society, domestic multiple cities are completed or Program Construction urban track traffic, with solution
Certainly increasingly traffic problems of congestion in urbanization process.However, gradually increasing with passenger flow, the visitor of track traffic station
Also more difficult, the contradiction between the passenger flow demand and transport capacity of urban track traffic rapid growth become increasingly conspicuous flow control,
The feasible solution for alleviating congested problem is to be managed from passenger flow control angle to demand.Passenger flow control is also referred to as current limliting, refer to for
The safety measure for the speed that passenger transportation management's security needs ensured and the limitation passenger that takes is entered the station, with reach in the reduction unit time into
The purpose of standee's stream.Station current limliting mainly includes normality current limliting and provisional current limliting: normality current limliting refers to over a period to come
Specific time period uses identical current limiting measures, is mainly used in peak period morning and evening；Provisional current limliting, which refers to, carries out in short-term station
Uncertain current limliting, burst large passenger flow is mainly formed by emergency event, large-scale activity and bad weather reason to be influenced.
Currently, in actual operation management, the selection of current limliting station, the determination of current limliting period and current limliting intensity are determined etc.
Still lack appropriate theoretical foundation and calculation method, relies primarily on manager's experience.Theoretical research about the above problem is main
Have: in terms of control measure, Liu Lianhua etc. is put forward for the first time passenger flow control should be from three layers of station grade, line level, network level control mould
Formula is practiced, and analyzes the applicable elements and Disposal Measures principle of each layer control model；Zhao Peng etc. utilizes linear programming method
Station passenger flow Collaborative Control model is constructed from route level, and has carried out model by taking Beijing's Metro Line 5 as an example and has tested
Card；Liu Xiaohua etc., which is constructed, jointly controls strategy between station, and the speed that enters the station of the passenger flow by reducing upstream station is that our station is pre-
Stay train conveying capacity, the ability of Lai Pingheng train on the line；It opens positive wait and passenger flow is constructed in vehicle according to flow equilibrium principle
It stands single-point, the collaboration current-limiting method on route；Tian Xu waits quietly proposing predicting in advance, is system combined, reinforce linking up, hierarchical responsibility
Reply burst large passenger flow event principle, organization of driving and station passenger flow control mode in the case of key design large passenger flow mention
The large passenger flow safety control measures of self-organizing and hetero-organization are gone out；Li Jianlin is back with No. 6 lines of Shanghai Rail Transit and No. 8 lines
Scape analyzes the contradiction of morning peak period demand and transport power, proposes recommendation on improvement to current limiting measures, and analyze different controls
The operational effect of stream measure.
It is disclosed in Publication No. CN103661501A in existing patent document a kind of anti-based on multiple spot detection of passenger flow information
The station automatic current limiting method of feedback, comprising steps of real-time detection calculates subway concourse passengers quantity and platform passengers quantity, and analysis station
The increase trend of platform ridership；Calculating subway concourse, which can accommodate passenger's surplus and platform, can accommodate passenger's surplus；According to the station
The Room can accommodate passenger's surplus and adjust disengaging subway concourse ridership in real time；Passenger's surplus, which can be accommodated, according to the platform adjusts platform
Ridership；Passengers quantity is passed in and out according to the platform and adjusts caused subway concourse passengers quantity increase, further adjusts disengaging
Subway concourse ridership, to achieve the purpose that current limliting.The technical solution belongs to subsequent adjusting, i.e., AT STATION occur passenger flow it is crowded when or it
It takes measures again afterwards, current limitation effect is not good enough, and the program is local regulating strategy, and disadvantage, which essentially consists in, to be merely able to alleviate certain
The congestion state at a little stations, and cannot achieve the purpose that plan as a whole to implement gauze entirety current limiting measures.
Accordingly, it is desirable to provide a kind of method of PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway station amount of entering the station.
Summary of the invention
For overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the method that the present invention proposes a kind of PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway station amount of entering the station.It should
Approach application is organized in urban track traffic for passenger flow, and main purpose is to be entered the station by PREDICTIVE CONTROL to limit subway station
Amount controls Subway Tunnel load factor, alleviates passenger flow congestion phenomenon, so that large passenger flow be avoided to cause excessive pressure to route or gauze
Power.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:
A kind of method of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station, method includes the following steps:
S1: entering the station the relationship analysis between the volume of the flow of passengers and section section flow according to station in subway line net, constructs subway line
Linear function formula in net between the station amount of entering the station and section section flow:
Wherein,
xiFor the always amount of entering the station at i-th of station, i=1,2 ..., n；
yjFor the section total flow on j-th of section, j=1,2 ..., m；
αjiFor the ratio that the volume of the flow of passengers of j-th of section section accounts for the total amount of entering the station in i-th of station is entered the station and passed through from i-th of station
Example；
βijTo account for j-th of total passenger flow of section section from the volume of the flow of passengers that i-th of station is entered the station in j-th of section section volume of the flow of passengers
The ratio of amount；
ΔtjiTime needed for reaching j-th of section from i-th station for passenger flow, it is contemplated that urban track traffic it is punctual
Property, it is believed that for determining i and j, Δ tjiFor a definite value constant；
xi(t-Δtji) it is (t- Δ tji) i-th of station in a period the always amount of entering the station；
yjIt (t) is the section total flow on j-th of section in t-th of period；
M, n is natural number, and n is station sum, and m is section sum.
S2: linear fit is carried out based on the historical data values of the station amount of entering the station and section section flow, determines parameter to be estimated；
S3: the section flow based on given section calculates the target amount of entering the station at corresponding station；
S4: passenger flow control strategy is determined based on the target amount of entering the station.
Preferably, in step S2, specifically includes the following steps:
S21: determine that there are following relational expressions in j-th of section
yj(t)=αj1x1(t-Δtj1)+αj2x2(t-Δtj2)+αj3x3(t-Δtj3)+...+αjnxn(t-Δtjn)；
S22: from choosing in one day in the t period section total flow y on j-th of section in historical dataj(t) and n is a
The amount of the entering the station x at station1、x2、x3…xnAs one group of input data；
S23: in step S22, multiple groups input data not on the same day is chosen from historical data；
S24: multiple groups input data is substituted into relational expression in step S21, determines parameter alpha to be estimatedj1、αj2、αj3…αjn, wherein j
Successively value is 1,2 ..., m；
S25: determine that there are following relational expressions at i-th of station
xi(t-Δtji)=βi1y1(t)+βi2y2(t)+βi3y3(t)+...+βinyn(t)；
S26: from the always amount of the entering the station y for choosing i-th of station in the t period in one day in historical dataj(t) and m area
Between upper section total flow y1、y2、y3…ynAs one group of input data；
S27: in step S26, multiple groups input data not on the same day is chosen from historical data；
S28: multiple groups input data is substituted into relational expression in step S25, determines parameter beta to be estimatedi1、βi2、βi3…βmj, wherein i
Successively value is 1,2 ..., n.
Preferably, in step S3, specifically includes the following steps:
S31: being entered the station and passed through in the volume of the flow of passengers and j-th of section section passenger flow in j-th of section based on i-th of station comes from
The volume of the flow of passengers that i-th of station is entered the station is equal, obtains following equation:
αjixi(t-Δtji)=βijyj(t)；
S32: the maximum section flow y in j-th of section is determined based on section section maximum load factorj(t)；
S33: i=1 is enabled, successively value is 1,2 to j ..., and m obtains (t- Δ tj1) m of the 1st station in a period
The amount of entering the station x1(t-Δt11)、x1(t-Δt21)、x1(t-Δt31)、…、x1(t-Δtm1)；
S34: the above-mentioned m amount of entering the station x are chosen1(t-Δt11)、x1(t-Δt21)、x1(t-Δt31)、…、x1(t-Δtm1) in
Minimum value min x1(t-Δtj1) be used as the 1st station in (t- Δ tj1) controlling value for the amount of entering the station in a period；
S35: enabling i, successively value is 2 ..., and n repeats the above steps, and obtains each station in (t- Δ tj1) in a period
The controlling value for the amount of entering the station as corresponds to the target amount of entering the station at station.
Parameter value to be estimated accuracy increase with the increase of historical data base.
It is further preferred that section section maximum load factor is 140%.
Preferably, in step S4, due to regression parameter αji、βijDetermination use a large amount of historical data, therefore basis
Above-mentioned calculating determines that passenger flow control strategy includes: based on the target amount of entering the station
Predictive estimation go out each station future daily requirement carry out current limliting period and corresponding volume of the flow of passengers controlling value, provide
Current limliting prediction in station is suggested；And/or
By the comparison station present period amount of entering the station and the target amount of entering the station, determine whether station currently needs to carry out current limliting simultaneously
Carry out the measure of the control amount of entering the station.
Preferably, passenger flow control strategy further includes the grading control of station current limiting measures.
Preferably, the load factor of different sections setting different stage, is calculated corresponding with different stage load factor
Current limliting period and volume of the flow of passengers controlling value, realize station current limiting measures grading control.
It is further preferred that the load factor of different stage includes three ranks, respectively 120%, 130% and 140%.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:
A kind of method of PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway station amount of entering the station of the invention, applies to urban track traffic for passenger flow tub of tissue
Reason limits the subway station amount of entering the station by PREDICTIVE CONTROL, controls Subway Tunnel load factor, alleviates passenger flow congestion phenomenon, thus
Large passenger flow is avoided to cause excessive pressure to route or gauze.Further, pass through the classification to the section section volume of the flow of passengers, guidance ground
Grading control measure according to circumstances is taken to the amount of entering the station in different periods, makes the amount of entering the station control in actual operation management in iron car station
It is more reasonable to make.
Detailed description of the invention
Specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawing.
Fig. 1 shows the method and step figure of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station.
Fig. 2 shows the method flow diagrams of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station.
Fig. 3 shows station and section relation schematic diagram in embodiment 1.
Specific embodiment
In order to illustrate more clearly of the present invention, the present invention is done further below with reference to preferred embodiments and drawings
It is bright.Similar component is indicated in attached drawing with identical appended drawing reference.It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that institute is specific below
The content of description is illustrative and be not restrictive, and should not be limited the scope of the invention with this.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of method of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station, method includes the following steps:
S1: entering the station the relationship analysis between the volume of the flow of passengers and section section flow according to station in subway line net, constructs subway line
Linear function formula in net between the station amount of entering the station and section section flow；
S2: linear fit is carried out based on the historical data values of the station amount of entering the station and section section flow, determines parameter to be estimated；
S3: the section flow based on given section calculates the target amount of entering the station at corresponding station；
S4: passenger flow control strategy is determined based on the target amount of entering the station.
As shown in Fig. 2, steps are as follows for specific method:
Step S1: entering the station the relationship analysis between the volume of the flow of passengers and section section flow according to station in subway line net, construction ground
Linear function formula in iron wire net between the station amount of entering the station and section section flow:
Consider station enter the station passenger flow propagation state transfer and hysteresis quality, temporal information is added in the analysis process, construct
Such as following formula of linear functional relation between the two out:
Wherein, xiFor the always amount of entering the station at i-th of station, i=1,2 ..., n；yjFor the section total flow on j-th of section, j
=1,2 ..., m；αjiI-th of station always amount of entering the station is accounted for for the volume of the flow of passengers of j-th of section section is entered the station and passed through from i-th of station
Ratio；βijTo account for j-th of total passenger flow of section section from the volume of the flow of passengers that i-th of station is entered the station in j-th of section section volume of the flow of passengers
The ratio of amount；ΔtjiTime needed for reaching j-th of section from i-th of station for passenger flow, it is contemplated that the standard of urban track traffic
Shi Xing, it is believed that for determining i and j, Δ tjiFor a definite value constant；xi(t-Δtji) it is (t- Δ tji) in a period
I-th of station the always amount of entering the station；yjIt (t) is the section total flow on j-th of section in t-th of period；M, n is nature
Number, n are station sum, and m is section sum.
Step S2: linear fit is carried out based on the historical data values of the station amount of entering the station and section section flow, is determined wait estimate
Parameter, specifically includes the following steps:
S21: determine that there are following relational expressions in j-th of section
yj(t)=αj1x1(t-Δtj1)+αj2x2(t-Δtj2)+αj3x3(t-Δtj3)+...+αjnxn(t-Δtjn)；
S22: from choosing in one day in the t period section total flow y on j-th of section in historical dataj(t) and n is a
The amount of the entering the station x at station1、x2、x3…xnAs one group of input data；
S23: in step S22, multiple groups input data not on the same day is chosen from historical data；
S24: multiple groups input data is substituted into relational expression in step S21, determines parameter alpha to be estimatedj1、αj2、αj3…αjn, wherein j
Successively value is 1,2 ..., m；
S25: determine that there are following relational expressions at i-th of station
xi(t-Δtji)=βi1y1(t)+βi2y2(t)+βi3y3(t)+...+βinyn(t)；
S26: from the always amount of the entering the station y for choosing i-th of station in the t period in one day in historical dataj(t) and m area
Between upper section total flow y1、y2、y3…ynAs one group of input data；
S27: in step S26, multiple groups input data not on the same day is chosen from historical data；
S28: multiple groups input data is substituted into relational expression in step S25, determines parameter beta to be estimatedi1、βi2、βi3…βmj, wherein i
Successively value is 1,2 ..., n.
Step S3: the section flow based on given section calculates the target amount of entering the station at corresponding station.
S31: being entered the station and passed through in the volume of the flow of passengers and j-th of section section passenger flow in j-th of section based on i-th of station comes from
The volume of the flow of passengers that i-th of station is entered the station is equal, obtains following equation:
αjixi(t-Δtji)=βijyj(t)；
S32: the maximum section flow y in j-th of section is determined based on section section maximum load factorj(t)；
S33: i=1 is enabled, successively value is 1,2 to j ..., and m obtains (t- Δ tj1) m of the 1st station in a period
The amount of entering the station x1(t-Δt11)、x1(t-Δt21)、x1(t-Δt31)、…、x1(t-Δtm1)；
S34: the above-mentioned m amount of entering the station x are chosen1(t-Δt11)、x1(t-Δt21)、x1(t-Δt31)、…、x1(t-Δtm1) in
Minimum value min x1(t-Δtj1) be used as the 1st station in (t- Δ tj1) controlling value for the amount of entering the station in a period；
S35: enabling i, successively value is 2 ..., and n repeats the above steps, and obtains each station in (t- Δ tj1) in a period
The controlling value for the amount of entering the station as corresponds to the target amount of entering the station at station.
It should be noted that parameter value to be estimated accuracy increase with the increase of historical data base.
Step S4: passenger flow control strategy is determined based on the target amount of entering the station.
Due to regression parameter αji、βijDetermination use a large amount of historical data, therefore according to above-mentioned calculating, be based on mesh
The mark amount of entering the station determines that passenger flow control strategy includes: that predictive estimation goes out period and phase that each station future daily requirement carries out current limliting
The volume of the flow of passengers controlling value answered provides the prediction of station current limliting and suggests；And/or by comparison the station present period amount of entering the station and target into
The amount of station, determines whether station currently needs to carry out current limliting and carry out the measure of the control amount of entering the station.
Further, passenger flow control strategy further includes the grading control of station current limiting measures: different sections sets different
Period and the volume of the flow of passengers controlling value of current limliting corresponding with different stage load factor is calculated in the load factor of rank, realizes
The grading control of station current limiting measures.In the present invention, the load factor of different stage includes three ranks, respectively 120%,
130% and 140%.
Embodiment 1
As shown in figure 3, including 1. 2. 3. totally three stations and section 1, section 2 totally two sections in the present embodiment.
It is entered the station the relationship analysis between the volume of the flow of passengers and section section flow, is constructed in subway gauze according to station in subway line net
Linear function formula between the station amount of entering the station and section section flow:
Wherein, xiFor the always amount of entering the station at i-th of station, i=1,2 ..., n；yjFor the section total flow on j-th of section, j
=1,2 ..., m；αjiI-th of station always amount of entering the station is accounted for for the volume of the flow of passengers of j-th of section section is entered the station and passed through from i-th of station
Ratio；βijTo account for j-th of total passenger flow of section section from the volume of the flow of passengers that i-th of station is entered the station in j-th of section section volume of the flow of passengers
The ratio of amount；ΔtjiTime needed for reaching j-th of section from i-th of station for passenger flow, it is contemplated that the standard of urban track traffic
Shi Xing, it is believed that for determining i and j, Δ tjiFor a definite value constant；xi(t-Δtji) it is (t- Δ tji) in a period
I-th of station the always amount of entering the station；yjIt (t) is the section total flow on j-th of section in t-th of period；M, n is nature
Number, n are station sum, and m is section sum.
In the present embodiment, it is assumed that it is currently t-th of period, under the premise of considering state transfer and time-lag effect,
There is formula such as section 1 and section 2:
1. for station:
2. for station:
3. for station:
It is collected by the historical data of the amount of entering the station and 2 section section flows to 3 stations and linear fit, to
Determine parameter alphajiAnd βijValue, detailed process is as follows:
Step 1: determining that there are following relational expressions in j-th of section
yj(t)=αj1x1(t-Δtj1)+αj2x2(t-Δtj2)+αj3x3(t-Δtj3)+...+αjnxn(t-Δtjn)；
Step 2: from choosing in one day in the t period section total flow y on j-th of section in historical dataj(t) and n
The amount of the entering the station x at a station1、x2、x3…xnAs one group of input data；
Step 3: as in step 2, chosen multiple groups input data not on the same day from historical data；
Step 4: multiple groups input data being substituted into relational expression in step 1, determines parameter alpha to be estimatedj1、αj2、αj3…αjn, wherein j
Successively value is 1 and 2；
Step 5: determining that there are following relational expressions at i-th of station
xi(t-Δtji)=βi1y1(t)+βi2y2(t)+βi3y3(t)+...+βinyn(t)；
Step 6: from the always amount of the entering the station y for choosing i-th of station in the t period in one day in historical dataj(t) and m is a
Section total flow y on section1、y2、y3…ynAs one group of input data；
Step 7: as in step 6, chosen multiple groups input data not on the same day from historical data；
Step 8: multiple groups input data being substituted into relational expression in step 5, determines parameter beta to be estimatedi1、βi2、βi3…βmj, wherein i
Successively value is 1,2 and 3.
Step 9: obtaining undetermined parameter α11、α12、α13、α21、α22、α23、β11、β12、β21、β22、β31And β32。
According to the analysis of the amount of entering the station and section discharge relation, 1. there is following equalities establishment to station:
α11x1(t-Δt11)=β11y1(t) (6)
α21x1(t-Δt21)=β12y2(t) (7)
At this point, if given section load factor is 140% namely y1(t)、y2(t) it is known that station can be calculated according to formula 6, formula 7
1. two different magnitudes that enter the station, respectively x1(t-Δt11)、x1(t-Δt21), take min [x1(t-Δt11),x1(t-Δ
t21)] the control amount of entering the station as station 1, it is assumed that x1(t-Δt11) it is minimum value, then station 1 is in (t- Δ t11) a period when
The maximum amount of entering the station must not exceed x1(t-Δt11)。
In following station management of passenger flow, station can be instructed in advance in (t- Δ t according to this result11) a period
The amount of entering the station is monitored, confirms whether the current amount of entering the station is more than to calculate the resulting control amount of entering the station x1(t-Δt11), it adopts in advance
Corresponding current limiting measures are taken, to achieve the purpose that the PREDICTIVE CONTROL amount of entering the station.
Similarly, 2. there is following equalities establishment to station:
α12x2(t-Δt12)=β21y1(t) (8)
α22x2(t-Δt22)=β22y2(t) (9)
Min [x is taken also according to the above method2(t-Δt12),x2(t-Δt22)] the control amount of entering the station as station 2..
Similarly, 3. there is following equalities establishment to station:
α13x3(t-Δt13)=β31y1(t) (10)
α23x3(t-Δt23)=β32y2(t) (11)
Min [x is taken also according to the above method3(t-Δt13),x2(t-Δt23)] the control amount of entering the station as station 3..
Embodiment 2
130% on the basis of embodiment 1, it is assumed that section section load factor is given into different setting values such as: 120%,
140% 3 rank, reach the time of these three rank load factors be obviously also it is different, be successively set as t1、t2、t3, then can obtain
To section section flow are as follows: y (t1)C=120%、y(t2)C=130%、y(t3)C=140%, using the section flow of three ranks as input
Data, with the exportable corresponding amount of the entering the station controlling value of preceding method and period.Herein still by station 1. for be illustrated:
Assuming that y (t1)C=120%When, the amount of the entering the station controlling value of station 1. is x1(t1-Δt11)C=120%, then it represents that in (t1-Δ
t11) a period, section 1 may have slight congestion, and station, which should be noted that, takes the reduction amount of entering the station measure.
Assuming that y (t2)C=130%When, the amount of the entering the station controlling value of station 1. is x1(t2-Δt11)C=130%, then it represents that in (t2-Δ
t11) a period, section 1 may have moderate congestion, and station should be further reduced the amount of entering the station on the basis of original limitation.
Assuming that y (t3)C=140%When, the amount of the entering the station controlling value of station 1. is x1(t3-Δt11)C=140%, then it represents that in (t3-Δ
t11) a period, section 1 may have heavy congestion, and station should take stringenter limitation to enter the station on the basis of original limitation
Amount measure.
The present embodiment can instruct subway station in practical fortune by the classification to the section section volume of the flow of passengers (or load factor)
In battalion's management, grading control measure according to circumstances is taken to the amount of entering the station in different periods, keeps the amount of entering the station control more reasonable.
Obviously, the above embodiment of the present invention be only to clearly illustrate example of the present invention, and not be pair
The restriction of embodiments of the present invention may be used also on the basis of the above description for those of ordinary skill in the art
To make other variations or changes in different ways, all embodiments can not be exhaustive here, it is all to belong to this hair
The obvious changes or variations that bright technical solution is extended out are still in the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of method of the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station, which is characterized in that method includes the following steps:
S1: the linear function formula in construction subway gauze between the station amount of entering the station and section section flow:
Wherein,
xiFor the always amount of entering the station at i-th of station, i=1,2 ..., n；
yjFor the section total flow on j-th of section, j=1,2 ..., m；
αjiFor the ratio that the volume of the flow of passengers of j-th of section section accounts for the total amount of entering the station in i-th of station is entered the station and passed through from i-th of station；
βijTo account for j-th of total volume of the flow of passengers of section section from the volume of the flow of passengers that i-th of station is entered the station in j-th of section section volume of the flow of passengers
Ratio；
△tjiTime needed for reaching j-th of section from i-th of station for passenger flow；
xi(t-△tji) it is (t- △ tji) i-th of station in a period the always amount of entering the station；
yjIt (t) is the section total flow on j-th of section in t-th of period；
N is station sum, and m is section sum；
S2: linear fit is carried out based on the historical data values of the station amount of entering the station and section section flow, determines parameter to be estimated；
S3: the section flow based on given section calculates the target amount of entering the station at corresponding station；
In the step S3, specifically includes the following steps:
S31: being entered the station and passed through in the volume of the flow of passengers and j-th of section section passenger flow in j-th of section based on i-th of station comes from i-th
The volume of the flow of passengers that a station is entered the station is equal, obtains following equation:
αjixi(t-△tji)=βijyj(t)；
S32: the maximum section flow y in j-th of section is determined based on section section maximum load factorj(t)；
S33: i=1 is enabled, successively value is 1,2 to j ..., and m obtains (t- △ tj1) m of the 1st station in a period enter the station
Measure x1(t-△t11)、x1(t-△t21)、x1(t-△t31)、…、x1(t-△tm1)；
S34: the above-mentioned m amount of entering the station x are chosen1(t-△t11)、x1(t-△t21)、x1(t-△t31)、…、x1(t-△tm1) in most
Small value minx1(t-△tj1) be used as the 1st station in (t- △ tj1) controlling value for the amount of entering the station in a period；
S35: the step of enabling i, successively value is 2 ..., n, repeats above-mentioned S33, S34 obtains each station in (t- △ tj1) a
The controlling value for the amount of entering the station in period as corresponds to the target amount of entering the station at station；
S4: passenger flow control strategy is determined based on the target amount of entering the station.
2. the method for the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step S2, tool
Body the following steps are included:
S21: determine that there are following relational expressions in j-th of section
yj(t)=αj1x1(t-△tj1)+αj2x2(t-△tj2)+αj3x3(t-△tj3)+...+αjnxn(t-△tjn)；
S22: from choosing in one day in the t period section total flow y on j-th of section in historical dataj(t) and n station
The amount of entering the station x1、x2、x3…xnAs one group of input data；
S23: as described in step S22, multiple groups input data not on the same day is chosen from historical data；
S24: the multiple groups input data that above-mentioned S23 is chosen substitutes into relational expression in step S21, determines parameter alpha to be estimatedj1、αj2、
αj3…αjn, wherein successively value is 1,2 to j ..., m；
S25: determine that there are following relational expressions at i-th of station
xi(t-△tji)=βi1y1(t)+βi2y2(t)+βi3y3(t)+...+βinyn(t)；
S26: from the always amount of the entering the station x for choosing i-th of station in the t period in one day in historical datai(t) and on m section break
Face total flow y1、y2、y3…ymAs one group of input data；
S27: as described in step S26, multiple groups input data not on the same day is chosen from historical data；
S28: the multiple groups input data that above-mentioned S27 is chosen substitutes into relational expression in step S25, determines parameter beta to be estimatedi1、βi2、
βi3…βmj, wherein successively value is 1,2 to i ..., n.
3. the method for the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the section section is maximum
Load factor is 140%.
4. the method for the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step S4, base
Determine that passenger flow control strategy includes: in the target amount of entering the station
Predictive estimation go out each station future daily requirement carry out current limliting period and corresponding volume of the flow of passengers controlling value, provide station
Current limliting prediction is suggested；And/or
By the comparison station present period amount of entering the station and the target amount of entering the station, determine whether station currently needs to carry out current limliting and carry out
Control the measure for the amount of entering the station.
5. the method for the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the passenger flow control strategy
It further include the grading control of station current limiting measures.
6. the method for the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station according to claim 1, which is characterized in that different sections is set
Period and the volume of the flow of passengers control of current limliting corresponding with different stage load factor is calculated in the load factor for determining different stage
Value realizes the grading control of station current limiting measures.
7. the method for the PREDICTIVE CONTROL subway amount of entering the station according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the different stage is expired
Load rate includes three ranks, respectively 120%, 130% and 140%.
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| CN111091225B (en) * | 2019-11-08 | 2022-05-06 | 北京交通大学 | Urban rail transit short-term passenger flow prediction method based on deep learning |
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