CN106682771A - Power transmission line coated ice thickness prediction method based on micro meteorological information - Google Patents
Power transmission line coated ice thickness prediction method based on micro meteorological information Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power transmission line coated ice thickness prediction method based on micro meteorological information, which utilizes the historical coated-ice thickness data of a power transmission line and the micro meteorological historical temperature data corresponding to the historical coated-ice thickness data to train a regression model using the coated ice thickness as the dependent variable and the micro meteorological temperature as the independent variable to obtain the correlation between the coated ice thickness and the temperature information and to further take and utilize the well-trained model and the meteorological temperature predicted by a metrological station to conveniently predict the thickness of the coated ice. According to the prediction method of the invention, through the correlation between the coated ice thickness and the temperature data and in combination with the future metrological temperature information, it is possible to predict the thickness of coated ice so as to provide auxiliary decision support to prevent ice and de-ice. Compared with the prior art, the method does not need the introduction of a special coated ice acquisition device, which not only reduces the cost invested into a project, but also eliminates the complicated image processing procedures.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to transmission line of electricity monitoring technical field, more particularly to a kind of transmission line of electricity based on microclimate information covers
Ice thickness Forecasting Methodology.
Background technology
In power transmission and transformation line, Jing often has transmission line of electricity approach or the situation in extremely frigid zones.In the defeated of extremely frigid zones
In electric line, into after winter, easily formed on many high mountains, air port and other places and congealed, winter shaft tower, wire icing phenomenon are shadows
Ring the important hidden danger of power circuit safe and stable operation.
In time to understand the field conditions of transmission line of electricity, when icing to be blocked up on transmission line of electricity, to take remove in time
Ice measure, prevents electric grid large area paralysis from causing heavy losses to national economy.In prior art, generally supervised online using icing
Examining system is observed.Specifically, by the image of image collecting device Real-time Collection transmission line of electricity, then, collection is led to
Cross the methods such as image gray processing, image segmentation, filtering, zone marker carries out pretreatment to image, to each bar transmission pressure icing
In front and back the comparing calculation of image pixel, draws a mean ratio, and then calculates its ice covering thickness.
But, need to arrange image collecting device, construction costs Jing using special using the observation of icing on-line monitoring system
Fei Gao.Additionally, into winter, image collecting device easily occurs that camera lens freezes, image can not show, winter electricity shortage,
The problems such as without related data, icing observation quality is difficult to ensure that, and then is difficult to meet circuit operation related request.In addition, above-mentioned
Image analysis processing step is various, and processing procedure is complex.
The content of the invention
To overcome problem present in correlation technique, the present invention to provide a kind of powerline ice-covering based on microclimate information
Thickness prediction method.
A kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology based on microclimate information for providing according to embodiments of the present invention, should
Including：
Obtain the history ice covering thickness data and microclimate history corresponding with the history ice covering thickness of transmission line of electricity
Temperature data；
Set up using ice covering thickness as dependent variable, microclimate temperature as independent variable regression model；
The history ice covering thickness and the microclimate historical temperature data are carried out as sample to the regression model
Training, obtains ice covering thickness prediction regression model；
The meteorological temperature of prediction is input into into the ice covering thickness prediction regression model, obtains predicting ice covering thickness.
Alternatively, the regression model includes unitary once linear regression model, wherein：
The expression formula of the unitary once linear regression model is y=a+bx, and y is ice covering thickness, and x is temperature, and a and b divides
Wei not coefficient.
Alternatively, using the history ice covering thickness and the microclimate historical temperature data as sample to the recurrence mould
Type is trained, including：
By the history ice covering thickness yiWith the corresponding microclimate historical temperature data xiIt is separately input to the recurrence
In model, the estimated value of the coefficient a and b corresponding with the history ice covering thickness is respectively obtained；
According to the estimated value of the coefficient a and b corresponding with the history ice covering thickness, using binary function the side of extreme value is asked
Method, calculates the regressand value of the coefficient a and b of the regression model；
Wherein,
Alternatively, the corresponding microclimate historical temperature data of the history ice covering thickness is obtained, including：
Obtain the geographical location information of transmission line of electricity；
According to the geographical position of the transmission line of electricity, the meteorological site nearest with the transmission line of electricity is found；
According to the icing time of the history ice covering thickness, the icing time is searched from the meteorological site corresponding micro-
Meteorological historical temperature data.
Alternatively, the meteorological temperature of prediction is input into before the ice covering thickness prediction regression model, methods described also includes：
Obtain the meteorological humidity data of prediction；
Judge the meteorological humidity data of the prediction whether more than or equal to default humidity value；
It is when the meteorological humidity data of the prediction is more than or equal to default humidity value, then the meteorological temperature input of prediction is described
Ice covering thickness predicts regression model.
Alternatively, the meteorological humidity data of prediction is obtained, including：
Obtain the prediction meteorological data corresponding with the transmission line of electricity geographical position；
According to the default meteorological data, the meteorological humidity data of prediction is obtained.
From above technical scheme, a kind of powerline ice-covering based on microclimate information provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Thickness prediction method, using the history ice covering thickness data and micro- gas corresponding with the history ice covering thickness of transmission line of electricity
As historical temperature data, to being trained as the regression model of independent variable as dependent variable, microclimate temperature using ice covering thickness,
So as to obtain the dependency of ice covering thickness and temperature information, and then receive the model and the meteorological temperature of meteorological observatory's prediction that train
Degree, just can carry out ice covering thickness prediction.Ice covering thickness Forecasting Methodology provided in an embodiment of the present invention, by history icing and temperature
The dependency of degrees of data, and following meteorology temperature information is combined, so as to predict ice covering thickness, provide auxiliary to anti-icing, anti-ice work
Decision support is helped, compared with prior art, without the need for putting into special icing image collecting device, engineering is not only reduced and is put into into
This, also eliminates the image processing process of complexity.
It should be appreciated that the general description of the above and detailed description hereinafter are only exemplary and explanatory, not
The present invention can be limited.
Description of the drawings
Accompanying drawing herein is merged in description and constitutes the part of this specification, shows the enforcement for meeting the present invention
Example, and be used to explain the principle of the present invention together with description.
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
The accompanying drawing to be used needed for having technology description is briefly described, it should be apparent that, for those of ordinary skill in the art
Speech, without having to pay creative labor, can be with according to these other accompanying drawings of accompanying drawings acquisition.
Fig. 1 is a kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology based on microclimate information provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Schematic flow sheet；
Fig. 2 is another kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology based on microclimate information provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Schematic flow sheet.
Specific embodiment
Here exemplary embodiment will be illustrated in detail, its example is illustrated in the accompanying drawings.Explained below is related to
During accompanying drawing, unless otherwise indicated, the same numbers in different accompanying drawings represent same or analogous key element.Following exemplary embodiment
Described in embodiment do not represent and the consistent all embodiments of the present invention.Conversely, they be only with it is such as appended
The example of the consistent apparatus and method of some aspects described in detail in claims, the present invention.
In order to obtain following icing situation of ultra-high-tension power transmission line in time, the invention provides a kind of be based on microclimate
The electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology of information, the method using regression model by historical temperature and ice covering thickness, being entered
Row fitting, in conjunction with the meteorological temperature prediction future ice covering thickness of prediction.
Fig. 1 is a kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology based on microclimate information provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Shown in figure Fig. 1, the method specifically includes following steps：
S110：Obtain the history ice covering thickness data and micro- gas corresponding with the history ice covering thickness of transmission line of electricity
As historical temperature data.
Specifically, it is possible to use icing monitors on-line monitoring system to obtain history ice covering thickness information, from microclimate station
Point obtains microclimate historical temperature data.
Further, from from microclimate station for acquiring historical temperature data corresponding with the history ice covering thickness, can be with
Comprise the steps：
S1101：Obtain the geographical location information of transmission line of electricity.
S1102：According to the geographical position of the transmission line of electricity, the meteorological site nearest with the transmission line of electricity is found；
S1103：According to the icing time of the history ice covering thickness, from the meteorological site icing time pair is searched
The microclimate historical temperature data answered.
S120：Set up using ice covering thickness as dependent variable, microclimate temperature as independent variable regression model.
Specifically, including unitary once linear regression model, wherein：
The expression formula of the unitary once linear regression model is y=a+bx, and y is ice covering thickness, and x is temperature, and a and b divides
Wei not coefficient.
S130：Using the history ice covering thickness and the microclimate historical temperature data as sample to the regression model
It is trained, obtains ice covering thickness prediction regression model.
In S310, n is obtained to microclimate historical temperature data and history ice covering thickness data (xi,yi) (i=1 ...,
N), this n is to data (xi,yi) it is exactly n group sample values, a pair of coefficients a, b can respectively be sought according to this each group of sample value.But
Because y is a stochastic variable, so can be obtained by another group of microclimate historical temperature data and history ice covering thickness data again
To the value of a pair of a, b.That is, can be remembered by the estimated value of coefficient a, the b obtained by n group dataFurther
It is by the regression equation calculated by history ice covering thickness and microclimate historical temperature:
For the n group data (x for gettingi,yi), remember yiIt is that stochastic variable y corresponds to xiValue, noteIt is test value yiReturn
Return value, each value yiWith regressand valueBetween differenceThe difference of 2 vertical coordinates is represented by, this difference has and just have negative,
Its absolute value isFind it is all these apart from sum be minimum straight line, i.e.,Minimum, uses flat
Side and replacement absolute value：
In formula (2), quadratic sum Q is with regression coefficientAnd become, therefore, it isA binary
Function, wherein xi、yiFor constant.
It is right respectively according to the method that binary function seeks extreme valuePartial derivative is asked to obtain：
OrderObtain：
Regression function is solved according to formula (4)For：
Wherein, makeFormula (5) can be written as formula：
In formula (6)The as minimum point of Q so thatReach minimum.
WithIt is exactly required regression equation for the linear equation of regression coefficient.
S140：The meteorological temperature of prediction is input into into the ice covering thickness prediction regression model, obtains predicting ice covering thickness.
The regression coefficient in step S140Calculate, prediction weather prognosis temperature is input in formula (1), from
And predict ice covering thickness.
Further, because ice covering thickness is not only affected by meteorological temperature, also by the air humidity around transmission line of electricity
Affect, therefore, before step S140 will predict that meteorological temperature is input into the ice covering thickness prediction regression model, as shown in Fig. 2
Methods described also comprises the steps：
S210：Obtain the meteorological humidity data of prediction.
Specifically, the prediction meteorological data corresponding with the transmission line of electricity geographical position is obtained, according to the default gas
Image data, extracts the meteorological humidity data of prediction.
S220：Judge the meteorological humidity data of the prediction whether more than or equal to default humidity value.
If pre- measuring moisture is less than default humidity value (80%), will not icing, if also, predicted temperature is more than or equal to 0 DEG C
If current icing, can active ice-melt, now icing trend is downward trend；As humidity reaches icing requirement
80%, then icing requirement is reached, then execution step S140.
From above technical scheme, a kind of powerline ice-covering based on microclimate information provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Thickness prediction method, using the history ice covering thickness data and micro- gas corresponding with the history ice covering thickness of transmission line of electricity
As historical temperature data, to being trained as the regression model of independent variable as dependent variable, microclimate temperature using ice covering thickness,
So as to obtain the dependency of ice covering thickness and temperature information, and then receive the model and the meteorological temperature of meteorological observatory's prediction that train
Degree, just can carry out ice covering thickness prediction.Ice covering thickness Forecasting Methodology provided in an embodiment of the present invention, by history icing and temperature
The dependency of degrees of data, and following meteorology temperature information is combined, so as to predict ice covering thickness, provide auxiliary to anti-icing, anti-ice work
Decision support is helped, compared with prior art, without the need for putting into special icing image collecting device, engineering is not only reduced and is put into into
This, also eliminates the image processing process of complexity.
Those skilled in the art will readily occur to its of the present invention after the invention that description and practice are invented here is considered
Its embodiment.The application is intended to any modification of the present invention, purposes or adaptations, these modifications, purposes or
The common knowledge in the art that person's adaptations follow the general principle of the present invention and do not invent including the present invention
Or conventional techniques.Description and embodiments are considered only as exemplary, and true scope and spirit of the invention are by following
Claim is pointed out.
It should be appreciated that the precision architecture for being described above and being shown in the drawings is the invention is not limited in, and
And can without departing from the scope carry out various modifications and changes.The scope of the present invention is only limited by appended claim.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology based on microclimate information, it is characterised in that include：
Obtain the history ice covering thickness data and microclimate historical temperature corresponding with the history ice covering thickness of transmission line of electricity
Data；
Set up using ice covering thickness as dependent variable, microclimate temperature as independent variable regression model；
The history ice covering thickness and the microclimate historical temperature data are trained as sample to the regression model,
Obtain ice covering thickness prediction regression model；
The meteorological temperature of prediction is input into into the ice covering thickness prediction regression model, obtains predicting ice covering thickness.
2. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the regression model includes that unitary once linear returns mould
Type, wherein：
The expression formula of the unitary once linear regression model is y=a+bx, and y is ice covering thickness, and x is temperature, and a and b are respectively
Coefficient.
3. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that by the history ice covering thickness and the microclimate history temperature
Degrees of data is trained as sample to the regression model, including：
By the history ice covering thickness yiWith the corresponding microclimate historical temperature data xiIt is separately input to the regression model
In, respectively obtain the estimated value of the coefficient a and b corresponding with the history ice covering thickness；
According to the estimated value of the coefficient a and b corresponding with the history ice covering thickness, the method for seeking extreme value using binary function,
Calculate the regressand value of the coefficient a and b of the regression model；
Wherein,
4. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that obtain the corresponding microclimate history of the history ice covering thickness
Temperature data, including：
Obtain the geographical location information of transmission line of electricity；
According to the geographical position of the transmission line of electricity, the meteorological site nearest with the transmission line of electricity is found；
According to the icing time of the history ice covering thickness, from the meteorological site icing time corresponding microclimate is searched
Historical temperature data.
5. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the meteorological temperature of prediction is input into into the ice covering thickness pre- survey time
Before returning model, methods described also includes：
Obtain the meteorological humidity data of prediction；
Judge the meteorological humidity data of the prediction whether more than or equal to default humidity value；
When the meteorological humidity data of the prediction is more than or equal to default humidity value, then the meteorological temperature of prediction is input into into the icing
Thickness prediction regression model.
6. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that obtain the meteorological humidity data of prediction, including：
Obtain the prediction meteorological data corresponding with the transmission line of electricity geographical position；
According to the default meteorological data, the meteorological humidity data of prediction is obtained.
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN107392376A (en) * | 2017-07-25 | 2017-11-24 | 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所 | A kind of crops Meteorological Output Forecasting Methodology and system |
| CN107784395A (en) * | 2017-10-27 | 2018-03-09 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness Forecasting Methodology based on LSTM artificial neural networks |
| CN109003254A (en) * | 2018-05-28 | 2018-12-14 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Logic-based returns method for detecting ice coating, device, equipment, system and medium |
| CN109556551A (en) * | 2019-01-10 | 2019-04-02 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | A kind of ice covering thickness monitoring method based on interface temperature |
| CN111539842A (en) * | 2020-04-08 | 2020-08-14 | 成都思晗科技股份有限公司 | Overhead transmission line icing prediction method based on meteorological and geographical environments |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN111539842A (en) * | 2020-04-08 | 2020-08-14 | 成都思晗科技股份有限公司 | Overhead transmission line icing prediction method based on meteorological and geographical environments |
| CN111539842B (en) * | 2020-04-08 | 2023-05-23 | 成都思晗科技股份有限公司 | Overhead power transmission line icing prediction method based on meteorological and geographic environments |
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Application publication date: 20170517 |