CN106651176A - Electricity consumption analysis method for service industry - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electricity consumption analysis method for a service industry. The method comprises the steps of performing related analysis on electricity consumption of Kaihua service industry, a user number, electricity consumption of urban and rural residents and the like; further analyzing situations such as Kaihua GDP, service industry input and output, a production value proportion and the like; and analyzing and predicting a development trend, mutual correlation and the like of the data by utilizing methods of related analysis, regression analysis, quadratic polynomial and the like of a mathematical analysis center, and giving degree of correlation between the service industry input and output and factors such as industrial electricity consumption, travel population and the like, and the like. According to the method, seen from an analysis result, Kaihua develops the service industry vigorously, regional overall economic growth is promoted, the economic growth speed exceeds the GDP growth speed and is highest in the service industry of the whole city, the service industry scale is continuously expanded, the quality and benefits are quickly improved, and great contribution to green development and transformation development of the whole county is made.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to coulometric technique field, more particularly to a kind of service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method.
Background technology
Become civilized and build one of pilot as national park, the service industry such as cultural tour becomes strategic pillar industry, opens
Change regional service industry power consumption and growth trend is presented.But becoming civilized, regional mountain region is more, and resident is sparsely populated, transformer station's quantity
It is limited, there is the radiation of circuit list, partial line passes by length, and current electrical network still has larger thin of low-voltage platform area, reactive power consumption
Weak link.As the progressively development that national park is built, service trade scale are increasing, region overlay is more and more wider, to electrical network
The aspect such as electrical demand, radius of electricity supply require also more and more higher.How rationally to advise under the requirement for ensureing national park construction
Draw and layout electrical network, improve electric grid investment benefit into the top priority of power department.National grid development Planning Department issues " one
The notice of the " center " strengthened research work of storehouse three, it is desirable to further lift statistics value and statistical fractals ability.
Becoming civilized, taking this as an opportunity for company, with national park construction as strategic objective, utilizes " the unification in the " center " of a storehouse three
Database and mathematics analysis center, are analyzed, process to existing mass data, obtain and become civilized under the construction background of national park
The relation between caused need for electricity and social economy is greatly developed in the service trades such as county's industry restructuring, cultural tour.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method, it is intended to solve current electrical network and still deposit
In the weak link that low-voltage platform area, reactive power consumption are larger, the input and output of service trade and trade power consumption amount, tourism population because
Correlation degree between element there is a problem of uncoordinated.
The present invention is achieved in that a kind of service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method, service industry's analysis of electric power consumption
Method is comprised the following steps：
Power consumption, number of users to service industry of becoming civilized has carried out related analysis to urban and rural residents electricity consumptions；
The GDP that becomes civilized, the input of service industry and output, output value accounting situation are further analyzed；
Using the correlation analysis at mathematical analysis center, regression analysis, quadratic polynomial, least square method, data are sent out
Exhibition trend, the interrelated input and output and trade power consumption amount, tourism demographic factor for being analyzed and predicting, provide service trade
Between correlation degree.
Further, the correlation analysis method at service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method choice mathematical analysis center, to clothes
Business industry input and output, electrical network put into and output, fixed assets investment and industry electricity consumption amount, electricity consumption amount correlative factor are carried out point
Analysis, obtains system correlation analysis matrix, and partial data is as shown in the table：
Further, linear regression analysis workflow is set up at mathematical analysis center, to GSP of becoming civilized, service trade
Output is analyzed with influence factor；
(1) GSP regression fit：
The relation become civilized between total output value and its influence factor, regression criterion can be accurately analyzed using linear regression method
It is zero, regression coefficient R side is 1, and model of fit can completely be presented GSP variation tendency；
(2) service trade output regression fit：
Using regression fit service trade output variation tendency, residual absolute value 0.01～1.13, R side is 0.99.
Further, least square workflow is set up, relationship analysis is carried out to service trade output and service trade trade power consumption amount,
Service trade output numerical value is fitted completely using service trade trade power consumption amount, and residual error is zero.
Further, the analysis and prediction at mathematical analysis center is specifically included：To correlation analysis, regression analysis, secondary multinomial
Formula, least square method are selected, to the analysis method choice data parameters for selecting, the data parameters output to selecting, output
Association analysis result.
Service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method that the present invention is provided, the power consumption, number of users and city to service industry of becoming civilized
Township's residential electricity consumption etc. has carried out the analysis of correlation；To making situations such as the GDP that becomes civilized, the input of service industry and output, output value accounting
Further analysis；Using methods such as the correlation analysis at mathematical analysis center, regression analysis, quadratic polynomials, to these numbers
According to development trend, it is interrelated etc. analyzed and predicted, give the input and output of service trade and trade power consumption amount,
Correlation degree between the factors such as tourism population etc., service trade is greatly developed from analysis result as can be seen that becoming civilized, and has pulled ground
Area macroeconomic ground increases, and speedup is that speedup is most fast more than GDP speedups and in whole city's service trade, and service trade scale persistently expands
Greatly, quality and benefits fast lifting, to whole county Green Development, Transformation Development major contribution is made that.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method flow diagram provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the analysis at mathematical analysis center provided in an embodiment of the present invention and prediction flow chart.
Specific embodiment
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention become more apparent, with reference to embodiments, to the present invention
It is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein is not used to only to explain the present invention
Limit the present invention.
The application principle of the present invention is explained in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in figure 1, service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method provided in an embodiment of the present invention is comprised the following steps：
S101：First power consumption to service industry of becoming civilized, number of users and urban and rural residents electricity consumptions etc. have carried out related analysis；
S102：Situations such as to the GDP that becomes civilized, the input of service industry and output, output value accounting, has made further analysis；
S103：The methods such as correlation analysis, regression analysis, the quadratic polynomial at mathematical analysis center are finally utilized, to these
The development trend of data, interrelated etc. are analyzed and predicted, give the input and output and trade power consumption of service trade
Correlation degree between the factors such as amount, tourism population.
It is analysis and the prediction flow chart at mathematical analysis center provided in an embodiment of the present invention shown in Fig. 2；In mathematical analysis
The analysis and prediction of the heart is specifically included：Correlation analysis, regression analysis, quadratic polynomial, least square method are selected, to choosing
The analysis method choice data parameters selected, the data parameters output to selecting, export association analysis result.
The application principle of the present invention is further described with reference to specific embodiment.
Embodiment 1
1. become civilized service industry's year analysis of electric power consumption during " 12 "；
Data resource is selected at mathematical analysis center, workflow is set up, to the tertiary industry trade power consumption that becomes civilized during " 12 "
Amount, electricity consumption amount, per family the data such as power consumption be analyzed.
2. the tertiary industry of becoming civilized trade power consumption amount trend analysis
Tertiary industry total electricity consumption increasing degree of becoming civilized during " 12 " is larger, wherein business, accommodation and catering industry and public affairs
Industry of working together and management tissue accounting are larger, and increase very fast；Information transfer, Computer Service and software industry are lifted steadily year by year,
But it is less with respect to proportion；Finance, real estate, commercial affairs and neghborhood services industry power consumption are relatively stable, communications and transportation, storage and postal service
Industry power consumption is significantly lifted for 2011, and the later stage is relatively stable.
3. the tertiary industry of becoming civilized trade power consumption amount is analyzed
The tertiary industry number of users that becomes civilized during " 12 " is substantially improved, wherein business, accommodation and catering industry number of users are accounted for
Than larger, and increase year by year；Secondly, information transfer, Computer Service and software industry and government utility and management tissue electricity consumption
Amount increases steadily, and relative amplification is larger within 2015；And finance, real estate, commercial affairs and neghborhood services industry and communications and transportation, storehouse
Storage, postal industry number of users are relatively stable.
4. become civilized business, stay, food and drink year power consumption trend analysis
Commercially, either power consumption or electricity consumption amount accounting in tertiary industry are all larger for accommodation and catering industry, and increase
Comparatively fast, therefore to the sector it is finely divided, draws combination chart and be analyzed.As can be seen that wholesale and retail business power consumption accounting
It is larger, and increasing degree is substantially, accommodation and catering industry is lifted steadily, relatively large in amplification in 2015；Wholesale and retail business is used
Amount increasing degree is larger, and synchronous with business, the increase of accommodation and catering industry number of users, and accommodation and catering industry electricity consumption amount is relative
It is stable.
5. become civilized wholesale and be sold, stay and the power consumption trend analysis per family of food and drink year
Newly-increased index on power consumption per family, using newly-increased data post figure is drawn.Wholesale and retail business has during per family power consumption is steady
Liter, stays and per family power consumption is lifted comparatively fast for food and drink, and commercially, per family power consumption is increased considerably accommodation and catering industry for 2015.
National park is built under pilot environment, become civilized regional business, the power consumption of accommodation and catering industry, number of users and family
Power consumption all has increased significantly, and amplification is larger within 2015, and this greatly develops the policy of electric business and tourist industry with becoming civilized
All it is undivided.
6. analysis of electric power consumption is organized in communications and transportation, storage, postal industry, government utility and management
Corresponding data resource is selected at mathematical analysis center, workflow is set up, to communications and transportation and the government utility use of becoming civilized
Electric trend is analyzed.Power consumption and number of users gather way all than very fast during government utility and management tissue " 12 "；
Communications and transportation, storage and postal industry number of users are basicly stable, and power consumption is substantially improved within 2011, then stable development.
7. finance, real estate, information transfer, Computer Service and software industry analysis of electric power consumption
Become civilized during " 12 " information transfer, Computer Service and software industry power consumption, number of users all increases year by year；Gold
Melt, real estate, commercial affairs and neghborhood services industry number of users increase steadily, power consumption has declined for 2011,2012, then steadily
Lifted.
8. the average annual analysis of electric power consumption of user
Newly-increased index on power consumption per family, according to newly-increased index, to tertiary industry, per family power consumption is analyzed.Traffic transport industry
Average annual power consumption is larger, next to that business, accommodation and catering industry, government utility and management tissue, the average annual power consumption of other industry
It is relatively small.
Embodiment 2
1. become civilized the monthly analysis of electric power consumption of service industry during " 12 "
Monthly power consumption data in using unified database, at mathematical analysis center monthly analysis workflow is set up, tool
Running body result is as follows.
2. business, lodging, the monthly power consumption trend analysis of food and drink
Become civilized business, stay, catering trade power consumption probably forms two peak valleys, May, November are low power consumption, 2 months, August
For peak of power consumption.
3. communications and transportation, storage, the monthly power consumption trend analysis of postal industry
Become civilized communications and transportation, storage, postal industry power consumption is reduced year by year, and January, August and September are peak times of power consumption, March, 4
The moon, May, November power consumption are relatively low, and in April, 2015, May power consumption are with relatively higher.
4. the monthly analysis of electric power consumption of information transfer, Computer Service and software industry
Information transfer, Computer Service and the software industry of becoming civilized starts to step up from April, reaches electricity consumption to September, October high
Peak, then progressively declines.
5. become civilized finance, real estate, commercial affairs and the monthly analysis of electric power consumption of neghborhood services industry
Finance, real estate, commercial affairs and neghborhood services industry power consumption form two obvious peak valley phases, and peak period is respectively 2
The moon and August, September, the low ebb phase is respectively May and November.
6. government utility of becoming civilized and the monthly analysis of electric power consumption of management tissue
Government utility of becoming civilized and management tissue power consumption form two obvious peak valley phases, and peak period is respectively January, 2 months
With August, September, the low ebb phase is respectively May and November, with finance, real estate, commercial affairs and neghborhood services industry electricity consumption similar trend.
7. become civilized under the Pilot project construction of national park service trade power consumption and economic development relationship analysis
7.1GDP and value-added of the tertiary industry are analyzed
During " 12 ", service trade of becoming civilized present it is very fast increase, service trade value added in the whole county is from 24.53 hundred million in 2010
Unit rises to 49.06 hundred million yuan in 2015, and 11.8% is increased every year, is higher by 3.6 percentage points of GDP average annual growth rates, accounts for the ratio of GDP
Anharmonic ratio improves 13.1 percentage points in 2010.
7.2. fixed assets and service trade investment situation are analyzed
Using investigational data and mathematics analysis center, become civilized regional " 12 " period fixed assets and service trade throwing are set up
Money analysis workflow.2015, service trade was spurred economic growth 4.2 percentage points, and the contribution rate of economic growth is arrived
73.9%." 12 " period, whole county service trade fixed investment increases year by year, and service trade investment average annual growth rate reaches
22.2%, continuous 4 years of the proportion of whole county investment in fixed assets is accounted for more than 50%, 14.6 percentage points were improved than 2010.
Speedup and the analysis of value added speedup are invested in 7.3 service trades
Using investigational data, at mathematical analysis center service trade investment speedup analysis workflow is set up；During " 12 "
Service trade of becoming civilized invests speedup apparently higher than investment in fixed assets speedup；Service trade value added is higher, and average annual growth rate is higher by the whole city
1.6 percentage point.
Service industry's value added analysis 7.42015 year becomes civilized
Using investigational data, parallel operation stream is set up, service industry's value added of becoming civilized to 2015 is analyzed.Industry collection
Moderate is higher, and the big industry of wholesale and retail, lodging food and drink, finance, real estate, communications and transportation, storage and postal service etc. five accounts for service trade
Value added proportion reaches 76%.The ecologies such as tourist industry, green relevant industries are rapidly developed, and Green Finance, environmental health are produced
Industry makes first appearance.
7.5 become civilized tourism population analysis
During " 12 ", a series of policy of support tourisms of platform is appointed in Kaihua County, and the tourism to becoming civilized brings
Vitality, tourism population significantly rises.According to statistics during " 12 ", each tourism population will be to the band that becomes civilized
Carry out 620 yuan of the tourist earnings, the development to service trade of becoming civilized has very big impetus.
Become civilized under 7.6 national park Pilot project construction backgrounds the relationship analysis of service industry and socio-economic development
Using the various analysis at mathematical analysis center, to the regional service trade output value, GDP and the service industry's electricity consumption of becoming civilized
Relation between amount, electricity consumption amount, urban and rural residents' electricity consumption, electrical network input and output, fixed assets investment etc. is analyzed and predicts.
1) correlation analysis
Comprehensive utilization investigational data and database resource, select the correlation analysis method at mathematical analysis center, to becoming civilized ground
Area's service trade input and output, electrical network input and output, fixed assets investment etc. it is related to industry electricity consumption amount, electricity consumption amount etc. because
Element is analyzed；GSP of becoming civilized during " 12 " and tourism population, government utility and management tissue power consumption, city
Coefficient correlation | r | >=0.95 of township's electricity consumption of resident is related in conspicuousness；With communications and transportation, information transfer, business, lodging and
＜ | r |≤0.95 of the power consumption such as food and drink coefficient correlation 0.8, in height correlation relation；With the power consumption phase relation such as finance, real estate
Several 0.5 ＜ | r |≤0.8, in moderate dependency relation.Service trade output and tourism population, information transfer, business, lodging, public thing
The power consumption coefficient correlation such as industry and urban and rural residents | r | >=0.95 is related in conspicuousness；With communications and transportation, finance, real estate and electricity
Net input coefficient correlation 0.8 ＜ | r |≤0.95, in height correlation relation.Electrical network puts into and information transfer, business, lodging and gold
＜ | r |≤0.95 of power consumption coefficient correlation 0.8 such as melt, in height correlation relation；With tourism population, communications and transportation, government utility
And management tissue, ＜ | r |≤0.8 of urban and rural residents power consumptions coefficient correlation 0.5, in moderate dependency relation.
2) principal component analysis
Mathematical analysis center select data, set up principal component analysis workflow, to become civilized regional society's total output value and
Service trade investment is analyzed.
(1) GSP influence factor principal component analysis
GSP influence factor characteristic value has two groups, and first group is business, accommodation and catering industry power consumption, tertiary industry
Power consumption, government utility and management tissue power consumption and information transfer and software service industry power consumption；Second group is finance, premises
The trade power consumption amounts such as industry electricity consumption amount, urban and rural residents' power consumption, tourism population, communications and transportation and information transfer.
(2) service trade investment influence factor principal component analysis
Service trade investment influence factor characteristic vector also has two groups, and first group is business, accommodation and catering industry power consumption, public affairs
Industry of working together and management tissue power consumption, tourism population, information transfer and software industry power consumption and urban and rural residents' power consumption；Second group
For finance, real estate power consumption, urban and rural residents' power consumption, tourism population, communications and transportation and information transfer, computer and software industry
Power consumption.
3) quadratic polynomial method
Using the quadratic polynomial method at mathematical analysis center, quadratic polynomial analysis workflow is set up, to regional life of becoming civilized
The relation produced between total value and tourism population is analyzed, there it can be seen that quadratic polynomial method can fit production always
Value, residual error is within the scope of allowing.
4) linear regression
Set up linear regression analysis workflow at mathematical analysis center, to GSP of becoming civilized, service trade output with
Influence factor is analyzed.
(1) GSP regression fit
The relation become civilized between total output value and its influence factor, regression criterion can be accurately analyzed using linear regression method
It is zero, regression coefficient R side is 1, and model of fit can completely be presented GSP variation tendency.
(2) service trade output regression fit
Using regression fit service trade output variation tendency, between 0.01～1.13, R side is 0.99 to residual absolute value,
Model of fit can describe the variation tendency of service trade output substantially.
5) least square method
Least square workflow is set up, relationship analysis is carried out to service trade output and service trade trade power consumption amount, using clothes
Business industry trade power consumption amount can completely fit service trade output numerical value, and residual error is zero.
Presently preferred embodiments of the present invention is the foregoing is only, not to limit the present invention, all essences in the present invention
Any modification, equivalent and improvement made within god and principle etc., should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method, it is characterised in that service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method include with
Lower step：
Power consumption, number of users to service industry of becoming civilized carries out related analysis to urban and rural residents electricity consumptions；
The GDP that becomes civilized, the input of service industry and output, output value accounting situation are further analyzed；
Using the correlation analysis at mathematical analysis center, regression analysis, quadratic polynomial, least square method, the development to data becomes
Gesture, it is interrelated be analyzed and predict, be given service trade input and output and trade power consumption amount, tourism demographic factor between
Correlation degree.
2. service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that analysis of electric power consumption side of service industry
Method selects the correlation analysis method at mathematical analysis center, and service trade input and output, electrical network input and output, fixed assets are thrown
Enter and be analyzed with industry electricity consumption amount, electricity consumption amount correlative factor.
3. service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that set up line at mathematical analysis center
Property regression analysis workflow, is analyzed to GSP of becoming civilized, service trade output and influence factor；
(1) GSP regression fit：
The relation become civilized between total output value and its influence factor can be accurately analyzed using linear regression method, regression criterion is
Zero, regression coefficient R side is 1, and model of fit can completely be presented GSP variation tendency；
(2) service trade output regression fit：
Using regression fit service trade output variation tendency, residual absolute value 0.01～1.13, R side is 0.99.
4. service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that set up least square workflow,
Relationship analysis is carried out to service trade output and service trade trade power consumption amount, using service trade trade power consumption amount service is fitted completely
Industry output numerical value, residual error is zero.
5. service industry's analysis of electric power consumption method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that the analysis at mathematical analysis center and
Prediction is specifically included：Correlation analysis, regression analysis, quadratic polynomial, least square method are selected, to the analysis side for selecting
Method selects data parameters, the data parameters output to selecting, and exports association analysis result.
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| CN114077927A (en) * | 2021-11-19 | 2022-02-22 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司鞍山供电公司 | Industry GDP-power consumption analysis method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114077927A (en) * | 2021-11-19 | 2022-02-22 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司鞍山供电公司 | Industry GDP-power consumption analysis method |
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