CN106570580A - Group building earthquake damage prediction method based on age through weighted average vulnerability matrix - Google Patents
Group building earthquake damage prediction method based on age through weighted average vulnerability matrix Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a group building earthquake damage prediction method based on age through a weighted average vulnerability matrix, and the method comprises the following steps: carrying out the statistics of general investigation data of buildings, and obtaining a statistical table comprising the type, age, fortification and area of buildings; obtaining an area proportion coefficient Ks through employing the area data in the statistical table; calculating and obtaining discount weights a of the same type of buildings in different years through different age values of buildings; calculating the vulnerability matrix, giving consideration to yearly depreciation, of group buildings through employing Ks and a; carrying out the reversing through the obtained vulnerability matrix of the group building, and obtaining an earthquake damage prediction result of each building under different seismic intensities. The method gives consideration to the factor of time depreciation of the buildings, obtains the vulnerability matrix of buildings in different years, improves the precision of vulnerability estimation of group buildings, and can effectively and accurately predict the earthquake damage conditions of the buildings.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to protection against and mitigation of earthquake disasters technical field, and in particular to a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age
Groupment builds Seismic Disaster Prediction.
Background technology
The substance of building prediction of earthquake calamity is that assessment prediction object is led when meeting with varying strength earthquake effect
The building destruction situation of cause.Its objective is to improve the state of providing fortification against earthquakes of prediction object, estimating earthquake loss, establishment antidetonation
Pre-disaster planning, formulation disaster mitigation countermeasure and emergency response plan and earthquake insurance etc. provide important evidence.Determine earthquake disaster
One key factor of evil extent of damage weight is the vulnerability of construction of structures.Therefore, construction of structures Vulnerability assessment is earthquake
The basis of prediction.The vulnerability of so-called construction of structures referred under geological process, what structure and engineering were destroyed in various degree
Probability.This destructiveness is normally divided into substantially intact, slight damage, moderate damage, heavy damage and collapses five
Grade is represented with corresponding Earthquake hazard index.Currently, seismic vulnerability analysis appraisal procedure is topmost four kinds：Determining method, Jing
Test method, test method(s) and theoretical analysis.Determining method is the personal judgement experience based on expert and engineering staff, can be directed to one
Polytype building structure is estimated on a large scale and is judged in regional, and at present this kind of method is a kind of risk analyses side on basis
Method；Experience vulnerability analysis method is based on there are the building damage data that field observation is arrived after earthquake in the past, by integrating not
With the structural damage data of earth shock intensity, experience fragility curves are obtained.But due to reconnoitre house sample size not
Controllable, custom difference is built in provincialism house, affects further genralrlization application；The advantage of test method(s) can be freely to choose symbol
The model of application is closed, the quantity of sample, laboratory condition and appointed condition are limited but the method is also put to the test, experimentation cost is high
High, testing imposed load and true seismic difference etc. causes the limitation of the method.In recent years, it is mainly used in some building son knots
In the experiment of structure and Local Members；Theoretical analysis are mainly FInite Element, by setting up structural finite element model, select actual
Either manual construction seismic wave application Time-History Analysis Method or pushover (Pushover) carry out the capacity spectrum of analytical structure
And Demand Spectra, and further obtain the analysis fragility curves of structure.The method is primarily adapted for use in the vulnerability point of structures alone
Analysis, it is inapplicable for large-scale groups building.
Because construction of structures anti-seismic performance is built the age and has a reduction of an old degree different, and existing colony
Property construction of structures Seismic Disaster Prediction have ignored this key factor, existing method is to give a phase by same class construction of structures
Same failure probability, predicts the outcome not accurate enough.
The content of the invention
The invention aims to solve drawbacks described above of the prior art, there is provided a kind of weighted average based on the age
The groupment building Seismic Disaster Prediction of Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes.
The purpose of the present invention can be reached by adopting the following technical scheme that：
A kind of groupment building Seismic Disaster Prediction of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age, methods described bag
Include：
S1, based on certain region house census data, the age of every class building is divided in detail, set up fabric structure
Type, building age, building are set up defences and floor area of building statistical table；
The room of S2, the degree that certain region house is set up defences according to the fabric structure type statistics each described buildings
Room occupied area, and it is obtained into COEFFICIENT K s divided by the structure type house gross area；
S3, the different fabric structure types of combination, the single building rapid wear analysis result in different building ages, are carried out
Distinguish in detail and correct, obtain building destruction probability experience matrix PKs；
S4, based on concrete with the strength degradation of time, to structural deterioration probability as the age carries out reduction, obtain reduction
Weights a；
S5, the failure probability that the different building ages are obtained based on the reduction weights a；
S6, situation of being set up defences according to building generaI investigation and weight k for being givens, according to formula
Calculate the building Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes P of the fabric structure types, wherein PKs[Dj| I] be for construction condition
Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes in the case of k (k=1 ..., 5), KksIt is the weight in the case of k, D for building conditionj(k=1 ..., 5) is
Building destruction grade, 5 destruction grades are respectively：Substantially intact, slight damage, moderate damage, heavy damage, breaking-up；Its
Middle s is building type, and certain structure type in certain age is a class；
S7, based on the failure probability under different building types, different building age, different earthquake intensitys, built according to per
The building Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes P for buildings。
Further, the fabric structure type includes：Steel construction, frame-shear structure, frame structure, brick mix structure, brick
Timber structure and other structures, wherein, the other structures are defined as being not belonging to steel construction, frame-shear structure, frame structure, brick and mix
Structure, brick joisted building are summarized as other structures.
Further, the degree that the building is set up defences is divided into：Do not set up defences, VI degree is set up defences, VII degree is set up defences, VIII degree
Set up defences, IX degree is set up defences.
Further, the scope in the building age is divided into：Within 10 years, 10～25 years, 25～50 years, 50 years with
On.
Further, certain region house census data is based in step S1, according to national regulation GB/T19428-
2014 version divides the fabric structure type in certain region house.
Further, step S5, obtained based on the reduction weights a the different building ages failure probability meter
Calculate formula as follows：
PAge(D1| IX, I)=P (D1|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D2| IX, I)=P (D1|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D2|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D3| IX, I)=PIn 10 years(D2|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D3|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D4| IX, I)=PIn 10 years(D3|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D4|IX,I)×aAge
PAgeD5| IX, I)=PIn 10 years(D4|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D5| IX, I) wherein, the age be divided into 10 years within, 10
～25 years, 25～50 years, more than 50 years.
Further, step S4, based on concrete with the time strength degradation, to structural deterioration probability with the age
Reduction is carried out, reduction weights a is obtained specific as follows：
Building strength degradation over time is calculated first, then calculates the shadow at the lateral maximum displacement angle for structure
Ring, finally obtain reduction weights a.
The present invention has the following advantages and effect relative to prior art：
1) present invention considers building age depreciation factor, using average weighted method, fusion determining method and empirical method
On the basis of, this dimension of time is increased, the age of every class building is divided in detail, it is general to various years building destruction
Rate is weighted builds colony's Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes to calculate and assess construction so that the Vulnerability assessment of groupment construction of structures it is pre-
Survey result more accurate.
2) the inventive method is simple to operate, easy, practicality, can effectively and accurately predict the earthquake destruction situation of building.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the groupment building Seismic Disaster Prediction of the weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age disclosed by the invention
Process step figure.
Specific embodiment
To make purpose, technical scheme and the advantage of the embodiment of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
In accompanying drawing, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is
The a part of embodiment of the present invention, rather than the embodiment of whole.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art
The every other embodiment obtained under the premise of creative work is not made, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
Embodiment
The present embodiment proposes a kind of groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity side of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age
Method, by taking certain city as an example, the method for building up of building group Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes comprises the following steps：
S1, based on certain region house census data, the age of every class building is divided in detail, set up fabric structure
Type, building age, building are set up defences and floor area of building statistical table；
Wherein, the fabric structure type includes：Steel construction, frame-shear structure, frame structure, brick mix structure, brick wood knot
Structure and other structures, wherein, the other structures are defined as being not belonging to the mixed knot of steel construction, frame-shear structure, frame structure, brick
Structure, brick joisted building are summarized as other structures.
Wherein, the degree that the building is set up defences is divided into：Do not set up defences, VI degree is set up defences, VII degree is set up defences, VIII degree is set up defences,
IX degree is set up defences.
Wherein, the scope in the building age is divided into：Within 10 years, 10～25 years, 25～50 years, more than 50 years.
Based on certain region house census data, according to the version of national regulation GB/T19428-2014 certain region is divided
The fabric structure type in house.
The acquisition of rapid wear matrix is based on certain city house census data, first by the structure shape in certain region house census data
Formula divides the fabric structure type in certain region house,《Seismic Design of Building handbook》Understand, building is in different construction years
Dai Youyi old degree reduction, the present invention is divided in detail to the age of every class building, is shown in Table 1.
The fabric structure type of table 1, age, set up defences, area statistics table (unit：Ten thousand square metres)
2nd, during the house of each species is counted by table 1, VI degree is set up defences, VII degree is set up defences, VIII degree is set up defences set up defences with IX degree with
That does not set up defences house respectively accounts for how many areas, and it is obtained into COEFFICIENT K s divided by such house gross area.
3rd, with reference to different classes of, various years single building rapid wear analysis result, carry out distinguishing in detail and correcting.
To more suitably building destruction probability experience matrix PKs.Wherein PKsThere is following form (wherein D1-D5Represent respectively substantially complete
Good, slight damage, moderate damage, heavy damage, breaking-up)：
The failure probability of the building in the air of table 2
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1| in the air, I) | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P(D2| in the air, I) | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P(D3| in the air, I) | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| P(D4| in the air, I) | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| P(D5| .I in the air) | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.40 |
The failure probability of the building that table 3 is set up defences by VI degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VI,I) | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P(D2|VI,I) | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P(D3|VI,I) | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| P(D4|VI,I) | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| P(D5|VI,I) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 |
The failure probability of the building that table 4 is set up defences by VII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VII,I) | 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0 |
| P(D2|VII,I) | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| P(D3|VII,I) | 0 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.03 |
| P(D4|VII,I) | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| P(D5|VII,I) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
The failure probability of the building that table 5 is set up defences by VIII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VIII,I) | 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| P(D2|VIII,I) | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| P(D3|VIII,I) | 0 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| P(D4|VIII,I) | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| P(D5|VIII,I) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
The failure probability of the building that table 6 is set up defences by IX degree
4th, for census data, with the building under fortification intensity, the age falls far short, change over time, reinforcing bar
Concrete structure durability also can change, and corrosion, carbonization of reinforcing bar etc. can all affect safety and the reliability of structure.This
Invention is based on strength degradation of the concrete with the time, to structural deterioration probability as the age has carried out reduction.First calculate building with
The strength degradation of time, the impact at the lateral maximum displacement angle for structure is calculated, reduction weights a is obtained.
5th, the failure probability of various years is obtained based on reduction weights a, computing formula has following form：
PAge(D1| IX, I)=P (D1|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D2| IX, I)=PD1|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D2|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D3| IX, I)=P (D2|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D3|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D4| IX, I)=P (D3|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D4|IX,I)×aAge
PAgeD5| IX, I)=P (D4|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D5|IX,I)
Wherein, the age be divided into 10 years within, 10～25 years, 25～50 years, more than 50 years.
The failure probability result of calculated various years is as shown in following table 7-21.
The failure probability of the 10-25 of table 7 buildings in the air
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1| in the air, I) | 0.508 | 0.178 | 0.045 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| P(D2| in the air, I) | 0.311 | 0.351 | 0.139 | 0.045 | 0.000 |
| P(D3| in the air, I) | 0.164 | 0.290 | 0.346 | 0.273 | 0.294 |
| P(D4| in the air, I) | 0.016 | 0.164 | 0.290 | 0.362 | 0.303 |
| P(D5| .I in the air) | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.181 | 0.321 | 0.403 |
The 25-50 of table 8 building destruction probability in the air
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1| in the air, I) | 0.503 | 0.176 | 0.044 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| P(D2| in the air, I) | 0.313 | 0.350 | 0.138 | 0.044 | 0.000 |
| P(D3| in the air, I) | 0.166 | 0.290 | 0.344 | 0.270 | 0.291 |
| P(D4| in the air, I) | 0.018 | 0.166 | 0.290 | 0.361 | 0.303 |
| P(D5| .I in the air) | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.184 | 0.324 | 0.406 |
More than 9 50 years building destruction probability in the air of table
The 10-25 of table 10 presses the failure probability of VI degree defended buildings
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VI,I) | 0.564 | 0.198 | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| P(D2|VI,I) | 0.283 | 0.368 | 0.149 | 0.050 | 0.000 |
| P(D3|VI,I) | 0.151 | 0.281 | 0.368 | 0.298 | 0.327 |
| P(D4|VI,I) | 0.002 | 0.151 | 0.281 | 0.369 | 0.300 |
| P(D5|VI,I) | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.153 | 0.284 | 0.373 |
The 25-50 of table 11 presses the failure probability of VI degree defended buildings
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VI,I) | 0.559 | 0.196 | 0.049 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| P(D2|VI,I) | 0.286 | 0.367 | 0.148 | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| P(D3|VI,I) | 0.153 | 0.282 | 0.366 | 0.295 | 0.323 |
| P(D4|VI,I) | 0.003 | 0.153 | 0.282 | 0.369 | 0.301 |
| P(D5|VI,I) | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.156 | 0.287 | 0.376 |
Table presses the failure probability of VI degree defended buildings for more than 12 50 years
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VI,I) | 0.553 | 0.194 | 0.049 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| P(D2|VI,I) | 0.288 | 0.365 | 0.147 | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| P(D3|VI,I) | 0.154 | 0.283 | 0.363 | 0.293 | 0.320 |
| P(D4|VI,I) | 0.004 | 0.154 | 0.283 | 0.368 | 0.301 |
| P(D5|VI,I) | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.158 | 0.291 | 0.379 |
The failure probability of the building that the 10-25 of table 13 sets up defences by VII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VII,I) | 0.842 | 0.564 | 0.198 | 0.050 | 0.000 |
| P(D2|VII,I) | 0.157 | 0.283 | 0.368 | 0.149 | 0.050 |
| P(D3|VII,I) | 0.002 | 0.151 | 0.281 | 0.368 | 0.030 |
| P(D4|VII,I) | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.151 | 0.281 | 0.367 |
| P(D5|VII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.153 | 0.284 |
The failure probability of the building that the 25-50 of table 14 sets up defences by VII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VII,I) | 0.833 | 0.559 | 0.196 | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| P(D2|VII,I) | 0.164 | 0.286 | 0.367 | 0.148 | 0.049 |
| P(D3|VII,I) | 0.003 | 0.153 | 0.282 | 0.366 | 0.030 |
| P(D4|VII,I) | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.153 | 0.282 | 0.363 |
| P(D5|VII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.156 | 0.287 |
The failure probability of the building that table is set up defences for more than 15 50 years by VII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VII,I) | 0.825 | 0.553 | 0.194 | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| P(D2|VII,I) | 0.171 | 0.288 | 0.365 | 0.147 | 0.049 |
| P(D3|VII,I) | 0.005 | 0.154 | 0.283 | 0.363 | 0.031 |
| P(D4|VII,I) | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.154 | 0.283 | 0.360 |
| P(D5|VII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.158 | 0.291 |
The failure probability of the building that the 10-25 of table 16 sets up defences by VIII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VIII,I) | 0.990 | 0.842 | 0.564 | 0.198 | 0.050 |
| P(D2|VIII,I) | 0.010 | 0.157 | 0.283 | 0.368 | 0.149 |
| P(D3|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.151 | 0.281 | 0.368 |
| P(D4|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.151 | 0.281 |
| P(D5|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.153 |
The failure probability of the building that the 25-50 of table 17 sets up defences by VIII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VIII,I) | 0.980 | 0.833 | 0.559 | 0.196 | 0.049 |
| P(D2|VIII,I) | 0.020 | 0.164 | 0.286 | 0.367 | 0.148 |
| P(D3|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.153 | 0.282 | 0.366 |
| P(D4|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.153 | 0.282 |
| P(D5|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.156 |
The failure probability of the building that table is set up defences for more than 18 50 years by VIII degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|VIII,I) | 0.970 | 0.825 | 0.553 | 0.194 | 0.049 |
| P(D2|VIII,I) | 0.029 | 0.171 | 0.288 | 0.365 | 0.147 |
| P(D3|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.154 | 0.283 | 0.363 |
| P(D4|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.154 | 0.283 |
| P(D5|VIII,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.158 |
The failure probability of the building that the 10-25 of table 19 sets up defences by IX degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|IX,I) | 0.990 | 0.990 | 0.842 | 0.564 | 0.198 |
| P(D2|IX,I) | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.157 | 0.283 | 0.368 |
| P(D3|IX,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.151 | 0.281 |
| P(D4|IX,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.151 |
| P(D5|IX,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
The failure probability of the building that the 25-50 of table 20 sets up defences by IX degree
The failure probability of the building that table is set up defences for more than 21 50 years by IX degree
| Earthquake intensity | VI degree | VII degree | VIII degree | IX degree | X degree |
| P(D1|IX,I) | 0.970 | 0.970 | 0.825 | 0.553 | 0.194 |
| P(D2|IX,I) | 0.029 | 0.029 | 0.171 | 0.288 | 0.365 |
| P(D3|IX,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.154 | 0.283 |
| P(D4|IX,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.154 |
| P(D5|IX,I) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.05 |
6th, situation of setting up defences and weight k for providing are generally investigated according to buildings, the foundation of certain building colony of city Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes
Method, according to formula
Calculate such building Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes, wherein PKs[Dj| I] for construction condition it is k (k=1 ..., 5) situation
Under Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes, KksIt is the weight in the case of k, D for building conditionj(k=1 ..., 5) is building destruction grade, 5
Individual destruction grade is respectively：Substantially intact, slight damage, moderate damage, heavy damage, breaking-up.Wherein s is building type,
Certain structure type in certain age is a class.
Finally obtain the colony Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes P of such buildings.Its result shape such as table 22.
Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes under the different earthquake intensitys of table 22 under all kinds of house various years
7th, based on the failure probability under the different building type various years of table 22, different earthquake intensitys, according to respective rapid wear
Property matrix destruction situation sample house generaI investigation in every house.The rapid wear matrix for obtaining per building is shown in Table 23：
The rapid wear matrix of per the building of table 23
In sum, the groupment building earthquake of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age disclosed by the invention
Forecasting Methodology, it is considered to build age depreciation factor, using average weighted method, on the basis of fusion determining method and empirical method,
This dimension of time is increased, the age of every class building is divided in detail, various years building destruction probability is carried out
Weighting to calculate and assess construction builds colony's Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes so that the Vulnerability assessment of groupment construction of structures predicts the outcome
It is more accurate.
Above-described embodiment is the present invention preferably embodiment, but embodiments of the present invention not by above-described embodiment
Limit, other any spirit without departing from the present invention and the change, modification, replacement made under principle, combine, simplification,
Equivalent substitute mode is should be, is included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of groupment of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age builds Seismic Disaster Prediction, it is characterised in that institute
The method of stating includes：
S1, based on certain region house census data, the age of every class building is divided in detail, set up fabric structure class
Type, building age, building are set up defences and floor area of building statistical table；
The house institute of S2, the degree that certain region house is set up defences according to the fabric structure type statistics each described buildings
Area is accounted for, and it is obtained into COEFFICIENT K s divided by the structure type house gross area；
S3, the different fabric structure types of combination, the single building rapid wear analysis result in different building ages, are carried out in detail
Distinguish and correct, obtain building destruction probability experience matrix PKs；
S4, based on concrete with the strength degradation of time, to structural deterioration probability as the age carries out reduction, obtain reduction weights
a；
S5, the failure probability that the different building ages are obtained based on the reduction weights a；
S6, situation of being set up defences according to building generaI investigation and weight k for being givens, according to formula
Calculate the building Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes P of the fabric structure types, wherein PKs[Dj| I] it is that construction condition is k (k=
1st ..., 5) in the case of Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes, KksIt is the weight in the case of k, D for building conditionj(k=1 ..., 5) is building
Destruction grade, 5 destruction grades are respectively：Substantially intact, slight damage, moderate damage, heavy damage, breaking-up；Wherein s is to build
Species type is built, certain structure type in certain age is a class；
S7, based on the failure probability under different building types, different building age, different earthquake intensitys, according to per building
Building Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes Ps。
2. the groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that
The fabric structure type includes：Steel construction, frame-shear structure, frame structure, brick mix structure, post and panel structure and other
Structure, wherein, the other structures are defined as being not belonging to steel construction, frame-shear structure, frame structure, brick mix structure, post and panel structure
Building be summarized as other structures.
3. the groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that
The degree that the building is set up defences is divided into：Do not set up defences, VI degree is set up defences, VII degree is set up defences, VIII degree is set up defences, IX degree is set up defences.
4. the groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that
The scope in the building age is divided into：Within 10 years, 10～25 years, 25～50 years, more than 50 years.
5. the groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that
Certain region house census data is based in step S1, is drawn according to the version of national regulation GB/T19428-2014
Divide the fabric structure type in certain region house.
6. the groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age according to claim 4
Method, it is characterised in that
Step S5, the computing formula of the failure probability that the different building ages are obtained based on the reduction weights a are as follows：
PAge(D1| IX, I)=P (D1|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D2| IX, I)=P (D1|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D2|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D3| IX, I)=PIn 10 years(D2|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D3|IX,I)×aAge
PAge(D4| IX, I)=PIn 10 years(D3|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D4|IX,I)×aAge
PAgeD5| IX, I)=PIn 10 years(D4|IX,I)×(1-aAge)+P(D5| IX, I) wherein, the age be divided into 10 years within, 10～25
Year, 25～50 years, more than 50 years.
7. the groupment building prediction of earthquake calamity of a kind of weighted average Seismic Vulnerability Matrixes based on the age according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that
Step S4, based on concrete with the strength degradation of time, to structural deterioration probability as the age carries out reduction, obtain
Weights a is specific as follows for reduction：
Building strength degradation over time is calculated first, then calculates the impact at the lateral maximum displacement angle for structure, most
After obtain reduction weights a.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN108647366A (en) * | 2018-02-05 | 2018-10-12 | 清华大学 | The non-linear course analysis method of architecture ensemble earthquake response and device |
| CN111143931A (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2020-05-12 | 上海市建筑科学研究院有限公司 | Non-iterative masonry structure vulnerability analysis method based on incremental static method |
| CN115828399A (en) * | 2023-01-10 | 2023-03-21 | 住房和城乡建设部信息中心(住房和城乡建设部住房信息管理中心) | House building earthquake resistance assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium |
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| CN105809609A (en) * | 2016-03-11 | 2016-07-27 | 福建省地震局应急指挥与宣教中心 | Building damage assessment method based on instrument seismic intensity |
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108647366A (en) * | 2018-02-05 | 2018-10-12 | 清华大学 | The non-linear course analysis method of architecture ensemble earthquake response and device |
| CN111143931A (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2020-05-12 | 上海市建筑科学研究院有限公司 | Non-iterative masonry structure vulnerability analysis method based on incremental static method |
| CN111143931B (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2022-11-22 | 上海市建筑科学研究院有限公司 | Non-iterative masonry structure vulnerability analysis method based on incremental static method |
| CN115828399A (en) * | 2023-01-10 | 2023-03-21 | 住房和城乡建设部信息中心(住房和城乡建设部住房信息管理中心) | House building earthquake resistance assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium |
| CN115828399B (en) * | 2023-01-10 | 2023-09-19 | 住房和城乡建设部信息中心(住房和城乡建设部住房信息管理中心) | House building earthquake resistance assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium |
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