CN106529076B - The two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention is a kind of two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis, real-time traffic flow data, highway layout data and synoptic data including step 10) acquisition highway;Step 20) establishes real-time accident risk prediction model and VISSIM simulation model;Step 30) first stage parameter calibration: calibration significantly affects the parameter of simulated vehicle speeds variation;Step 40) second stage parameter calibration: calibration significantly affects the parameter for emulating real-time accident risk value;If the speed of step 50) VISSIM simulation model and real-time accident risk reach simulation precision, completion is demarcated, demarcates the parameter eliminated in the calibration of two steps, otherwise to improve simulation precision.The two stages simulation parameter scaling method of VISSIM simulation model proposed by the present invention further simulates accident risk value in reproduction traffic flow on the basis of change in time and space, makes VISSIM emulation that can directly evaluate street accidents risks.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to traffic simulation fields, are related to a kind of emulate with genetic algorithm to highway communication and carry out Automatic parameter
The method of calibration.
Background technique
Microscopic simulation technology is widely applied traffic engineering field, especially there was only machine in simulation traffic composition
The highway of motor-car studies aspect, and numerous studies are using simulation model come evaluation path traffic safety and operational effect.But big portion
The simulation model established in engineering practice is divided to use the default parameter value of simulation software or according to engineer experience's determination
Parameter value, simulation model reproduce traffic flow over time and space ineffective, do not simulate the traffic on different roads
Operation characteristic is flowed, so that emulation is known as the animation effect that one kind does not have evaluation purpose.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem: the present invention provides one kind and is able to reflect real-time traffic stream mode and accident risk, to traffic safety
Analysis is more targeted, can reflect the expressway traffic safety of traffic flow and accident risk feature emulation point on different highways
The two stages parameter calibration method of analysis.
Technical solution: the two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis of the invention, including with
Lower step:
Step 10) acquires the real-time traffic flow data of highway, obtains in road geometry data and weather measuring station
Weather data, the real-time traffic stream packets include vehicle flowrate, space occupancy and speed;
Step 20) establishes real-time accident risk prediction according to real-time traffic flow data, road geometry data and weather data
Model establishes VISSIM simulation model according to road geometry data, vehicle flowrate and speed, and the vehicle flowrate refers in setting time
The quantity of the cart and trolley that are measured on selected road in section;
Step 30) first stage parameter calibration:
Firstly, judging in VISSIM software whether are each of follow the bus and lane changing parameter one by one in accordance with the following methods
It needs to demarcate: changing the value of any of any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing parameter, with the parameter
Multiple and different values in value range, are separately operable VISSIM simulation model, and obtained VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION and parameter are complete
VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION when for default value is compared, judge whether there is it is dramatically different, if so, the parameter is the ginseng for needing to be calibrated
Number;Otherwise the average value for further comparing all speed of VISSIM simulation model output, if its variation tendency can use power letter
Number, exponential function or polynomial function are fitted, then the parameter is also to need to be calibrated, otherwise without demarcating the parameter;
Then, parameter calibration is carried out: to run simulation velocity in the VISSIM simulation model period and survey the absolute of speed
The sum of difference is fitness function, is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, with genetic algorithm or adaptivity algorithm meter
The parameter value that calibrating parameters are needed in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation is calculated, it is right in VSSIM software which is assigned to
The parameter answered;
Step 40) second stage parameter calibration:
Firstly, judging in VISSIM software whether are each of follow the bus and lane changing parameter one by one in accordance with the following methods
It needs to demarcate: changing the value of any of any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing parameter, with the parameter
Multiple and different values in value range, are separately operable VISSIM simulation model, obtained accident risk distribution and ginseng
The accident risk distribution of interwoven region part of number when being all default value is compared, judge whether there is it is dramatically different, if so, the parameter
It is the parameter to be calibrated;Otherwise further compare the average value of all real-time accident risks of VISSIM simulation model output,
If its variation tendency can be fitted with power function, exponential function, polynomial function, which is also to need to be calibrated, no
Then without demarcating the parameter;The accident risk value be by the real-time speed in VISSIM simulation model, occupation rate, vehicle flowrate,
Road geometry data, and be defaulted as good weather value and substitute into the real-time accident risk prediction model established in step 20)
It is calculated;
Then, it carries out parameter calibration: emulating accident risk and actual accidents wind in the VISSIM simulation model period to run
The sum of absolute difference of danger is fitness function, is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, with genetic algorithm or adaptively
Property algorithm calculate the parameter value that calibrating parameters are needed in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, which is assigned to VSSIM
Corresponding parameter in software;
The parameter value of step 50) calibration using the step 30) and 40), runs VISSIM simulation model, judges by two
Whether the difference of the stage has been demarcated in VISSIM simulation model speed and accident risk and actual conditions meets required precision,
It, will be by the parameter value that step 30) is demarcated with 40) two stages as final calibration result if meeting;Otherwise, with operation
The sum of simulation velocity and the absolute difference of actual measurement speed are fitness function in the VISSIM simulation model period, with fitness function
Minimum value is to calculate target, to the parameter being determined as in step 30) without calibration, is calculated with genetic algorithm or adaptivity algorithm
Parameter value in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, is assigned to corresponding parameter in VISSIM software for calculated result;Again
To run the sum of absolute difference for emulating accident risk and actual accidents risk in the VISSIM simulation model period as fitness function,
It is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, to the parameter being determined as in step 40) without calibration, with genetic algorithm or certainly
Adaptive algorithm calculates the parameter value in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, and calculated result is assigned in VISSIM software
Corresponding parameter.
Further, in the method for the present invention, real-time traffic flow data is acquired in step 10) as follows:
On highway section, between two adjacent Traffic flow detecting equipment distance be 500 meters to 1500 meters, adjacent two
Distance is 5 kilometers to 15 kilometers between a environment weather station, and Traffic flow detecting equipment and environment weather station are along highway
It is evenly arranged, the Traffic flow detecting equipment is electromagnetic induction coil or video traffic flow assay device;
The road geometry data includes full-surfaced width, central strip bandwidth, shoulder width, number of track-lines and road alignment
It whether is curve.
Further, in the method for the present invention, step 30) and 40) in, two class of follow the bus and lane changing in VISSIM software
Parameter is specific as follows:
Table 1
Further, in the method for the present invention, step 30) and 40) in, judge the whether dramatically different and real-time thing of VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION
Therefore whether risk distribution is dramatically different is all made of following methods:
With the variance of speed or real-time accident risk between every two groups of F- test and judge under level of confidence whether phase
It is same: if they are the same, to be then distributed in statistics with hypothesis identical two groups of VELOCITY DISTRIBUTIONs of t- test and judge of variance or real-time accident risk
On it is whether dramatically different;
If it is different, being then distributed in system with hypothesis different two groups of VELOCITY DISTRIBUTIONs of t- test and judge of variance or real-time accident risk
Whether meter is learned dramatically different.
Further, in the method for the present invention, step 30) and 40) in, change any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or
The value of any of lane changing parameter is to proceed as follows:
It is first depending on traffic flow parameter and determines with the principle being actually consistent the maximum value and minimum value of parameter, then at this
10~20 numerical value are taken according to arithmetic progression between range, run and these numerical value are assigned to corresponding ginseng before VISSIM model
Number, how many parameter value should then carry out the simulation run of respective numbers to the parameter.
Further, in the method for the present invention, in step 50), (1) judgement has been demarcated by two stages according to the following formula
Whether speed and accident risk in VISSIM simulation model meet required precision:
If formula (1) is set up, meet required precision, otherwise do not meet required precision, wherein α is precision, between 0~1
Value.
The present invention establishes VISSIM simulation model and real-time accident wind using the measured data of Traffic flow detecting equipment as foundation
Dangerous prediction model demarcates the parameter in VISSIM model, so that VISSIM simulation model can reflect arithmetic for real-time traffic flow in two steps
State and accident risk.
The utility model has the advantages that compared with prior art, the present invention having the advantage that
The two stages parameter calibration method of proposition makes VISSIM emulation height go back traffic flow and accident wind on original path
Danger, for feasible basis will be provided in the analysis of simulator service to actual traffic safety.Because the parameter in VISSIM software is silent
Recognizing value is determined according to the road traffic delay situation that software development state chooses, all with the traffic flow situation on Chinese many roads
It is not consistent, so to carry out first stage parameter calibration in step 30), traffic flow on road is reappeared in VISSIM simulation model
Variation over time and space.But existing method is more according to similar road feature and traffic flow character at present
Road, to parameter carry out experience calibration, and be in the present invention according to the measured data of specified link carry out Accurate Calibration, calibration
As a result it more tallies with the actual situation with simulated effect.In addition, not only carried out in method provided by the invention traffic flow calibration and
Calibration, it is also proposed that second stage Calibration Simulation accident risk, so that VISSIM simulation model has more the analysis of traffic safety
Targetedly.And second stage calibration accident risk is the part not having in current common method, so increased second stage
Parameter calibration calibrated model can be made to be directly used in the evaluation of traffic safety.Parameter calibration method of the invention is compared
In the improvement and supplement of the proposition of conventional method, simulation model is enabled to reflect the spy of traffic flow and accident risk on different highways
Sign has practice value.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the layout diagram of detection coil in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is flow diagram of the invention.
Fig. 3 is that the VISSIM simulation model by having demarcated is changed over time along the accident risk of each section of direction of traffic
Histogram.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to embodiment and Figure of description, the present invention is further illustrated.
The two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis of the invention, comprising the following steps:
Step 10) acquires the real-time traffic flow data of highway, obtains in road geometry data and weather measuring station
Weather data, the real-time traffic stream packets include vehicle flowrate, space occupancy and speed;Further, it adopts as follows
Collect real-time traffic flow data:
On highway section, between two adjacent Traffic flow detecting equipment distance be 500 meters to 1500 meters, adjacent two
Distance is 5 kilometers to 15 kilometers between a environment weather station, and Traffic flow detecting equipment and environment weather station are along highway
It is evenly arranged, the Traffic flow detecting equipment is electromagnetic induction coil or video traffic flow assay device;The road geometry
Data include whether full-surfaced width, central strip bandwidth, shoulder width, number of track-lines and road alignment are curve.
No. 880 interstate highways in the U.S. are acquired from the south orientation north to (being referred to as 1-880N hereinafter) completely 199 groups of inductions
Traffic flow data, road geometry data and the weather data of coil and 5 weather monitoring station some days, as establishing real-time accident
The data information of risk forecast model;I-880N is acquired from 6 groups of main line coil checkers on one section of long 47 km section of starting point beginning
With the traffic flow data of a certain hour in 4 groups of ring road coil checkers.1 hour maximum emulation duration for VISSIM, therefore build
The traffic flow data of vertical VISSIM simulation model need to only acquire 1 hour.Road data includes road overall with, central strip bandwidth
Whether degree outer shoulder width, interior shoulder width, number of track-lines, is that curve is linear, the distance between two adjacent inspection stations of upstream and downstream,
Traffic flow data includes the every 30 seconds average speed in each lane, average occupancy and average flow rate.
Step 20) establishes real-time accident risk prediction according to real-time traffic flow data, road geometry data and weather data
Model establishes VISSIM simulation model according to road geometry data, vehicle flowrate and speed, and the vehicle flowrate refers in setting time
The quantity of the cart and trolley that are measured on selected road in section;
According to I-880N real-time accident risk prediction model such as formula (1) and formula that completely the traffic flow data in one day is established
(2) shown in:
G (x)=0.074*DetOccu+0.06*SpdDevu+0.05*SpdDevd+0.119*OccDidd+0.092
*AvgCntu-d+0.026*AvgOccu-d+0.886*Weather+1.057
*DetDistu-d-0.049*Widths-0.856*Widtho+0.508*Curve
-7.376 (1)
Wherein, P is the probability for certain point some time accident occurring, and the variable meaning in formula (1) is as shown in table 1:
Table 2
Step 30) first stage parameter calibration:
Firstly, judging in VISSIM software whether are each of follow the bus and lane changing parameter one by one in accordance with the following methods
It needs to demarcate: changing the value of any of any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing parameter, with the parameter
Multiple and different values in value range, are separately operable VISSIM simulation model, and obtained VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION and parameter are complete
VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION when for default value is compared, judge whether there is it is dramatically different, if so, the parameter is the ginseng for needing to be calibrated
Number;Otherwise the average value for further comparing all speed of VISSIM simulation model output, if its variation tendency can use power letter
Number, exponential function or polynomial function are fitted, then the parameter is also to need to be calibrated, otherwise without demarcating the parameter;
Then, parameter calibration is carried out: to run simulation velocity in the VISSIM simulation model period and survey the absolute of speed
The sum of difference is fitness function, is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, with genetic algorithm or adaptivity algorithm meter
The parameter value that calibrating parameters are needed in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation is calculated, it is right in VSSIM software which is assigned to
The parameter answered;
In this embodiment, the follow the bus in highway (free choosing lane) driving behavior parameter, lane are become respectively
It changes and carries out control variable experiment with each parameter (table 1) in lateral behavior three categories, examined and t- check analysis simulation run with F-
The accident risk value of the every 30 seconds car speeds and calculating of output, obtains following result:
A, the parameter for significantly affecting car speed has: CC4 and CC5 (following state threshold value), CC6 (speed vibration), CC7
General behavior selection mode in (acceleration fluctuating range), lane changing;
B, using genetic algorithm calculating parameter value, calculated result are as follows: CC4=-9, CC5=9, CC6=10.9, CC7=
4.5。
Step 40) second stage parameter calibration:
Firstly, judging in VISSIM software whether are each of follow the bus and lane changing parameter one by one in accordance with the following methods
It needs to demarcate: changing the value of any of any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing parameter, with the parameter
Multiple and different values in value range, are separately operable VISSIM simulation model, obtained accident risk distribution and ginseng
The accident risk distribution of interwoven region part of number when being all default value is compared, judge whether there is it is dramatically different, if so, the parameter
It is the parameter to be calibrated;Otherwise further compare the average value of all real-time accident risks of VISSIM simulation model output,
If its variation tendency can be fitted with power function, exponential function, polynomial function, which is also to need to be calibrated, no
Then without demarcating the parameter;The accident risk value be by the real-time speed in VISSIM simulation model, occupation rate, vehicle flowrate,
Road geometry data, and be defaulted as good weather value and substitute into the real-time accident risk prediction model established in step 20)
It is calculated;
Then, it carries out parameter calibration: emulating accident risk and actual accidents wind in the VISSIM simulation model period to run
The sum of absolute difference of danger is fitness function, is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, with genetic algorithm or adaptively
Property algorithm calculate the parameter value that calibrating parameters are needed in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, which is assigned to VSSIM
Corresponding parameter in software;
In the embodiment, respectively to the follow the bus in highway (free choosing lane) driving behavior parameter, lane changing
Control variable experiment is carried out with parameter (table 1) each in lateral behavior three categories, is examined with F- and t- check analysis simulation run is defeated
The accident risk value of every 30 seconds car speeds and calculating out, obtains following result:
The parameter for significantly affecting emulation accident risk has: the general behavior selection mode in lane changing.General behavior choosing
The value selected only has two kinds of free choosing lane and right lateral rule, it is possible to directly select and more meet practical driving situation
" free choosing lane ".
The parameter value of step 50) calibration using the step 30) and 40), runs VISSIM simulation model, judges by two
Whether the difference of the stage has been demarcated in VISSIM simulation model speed and accident risk and actual conditions meets required precision,
It, will be by the parameter value that step 30) is demarcated with 40) two stages as final calibration result if meeting;Otherwise, with operation
The sum of simulation velocity and the absolute difference of actual measurement speed are fitness function in the VISSIM simulation model period, with fitness function
Minimum value is to calculate target, to the parameter being determined as in step 30) without calibration, is calculated with genetic algorithm or adaptivity algorithm
Parameter value in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, is assigned to corresponding parameter in VISSIM software for calculated result;Again
To run the sum of absolute difference for emulating accident risk and actual accidents risk in the VISSIM simulation model period as fitness function,
It is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, to the parameter being determined as in step 40) without calibration, with genetic algorithm or certainly
Adaptive algorithm calculates the parameter value in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, and calculated result is assigned in VISSIM software
Corresponding parameter.
In the present embodiment, the VISSIM simulation model demarcated at a time roadside accident risk size such as
Shown in Fig. 3, the accident risk distribution situation that contrast simulation data and measured data calculate, it can be found that the two has similar spy
Sign, and meet required precision.
Above-described embodiment is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that: for the ordinary skill of the art
For personnel, without departing from the principle of the present invention, several improvement and equivalent replacement can also be made, these are to the present invention
Claim improve with the technical solution after equivalent replacement, each fall within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis, which is characterized in that this method includes
Following steps:
Step 10) acquires the real-time traffic flow data of highway, obtains the weather in road geometry data and weather measuring station
Data, the real-time traffic stream packets include vehicle flowrate, space occupancy and speed;
Step 20) establishes real-time accident risk prediction model according to real-time traffic flow data, road geometry data and weather data,
VISSIM simulation model is established according to road geometry data, vehicle flowrate and speed, the vehicle flowrate refers in the set time period
The quantity of the cart and trolley that are measured on selected road;
Step 30) first stage parameter calibration:
Firstly, judging whether each of follow the bus and lane changing parameter need in VISSIM software one by one in accordance with the following methods
Calibration: change the value of any of any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing parameter, taken with the parameter
The multiple and different values being worth in range, are separately operable VISSIM simulation model, obtained VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION is all silent with parameter
VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION when recognizing value is compared, judge whether there is it is dramatically different, if so, the parameter is to need the parameter that is calibrated;
Otherwise further relatively VISSIM simulation model output all speed average value, if its variation tendency can with power function,
Exponential function or polynomial function are fitted, then the parameter is also to need to be calibrated, otherwise without demarcating the parameter;
Then, carry out parameter calibration: with run simulation velocity in the VISSIM simulation model period and actual measurement speed absolute difference it
With for fitness function, it is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, is calculated pair with genetic algorithm or adaptivity algorithm
The parameter value is assigned to corresponding in VSSIM software by the parameter value that calibrating parameters are needed in the VISSIM simulation model that should be run
Parameter;
Step 40) second stage parameter calibration:
Firstly, judging whether each of follow the bus and lane changing parameter need in VISSIM software one by one in accordance with the following methods
Calibration: change the value of any of any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing parameter, taken with the parameter
The multiple and different values being worth in range, are separately operable VISSIM simulation model, and obtained accident risk distribution is complete with parameter
The accident risk distribution of interwoven region part when for default value is compared, judge whether there is it is dramatically different, if so, the parameter is to want
The parameter being calibrated;Otherwise further compare the average value of all real-time accident risks of VISSIM simulation model output, if its
Variation tendency can be fitted with power function, exponential function, polynomial function, then the parameter be also need be calibrated, otherwise without
The parameter need to be demarcated;The accident risk value is by the real-time speed in VISSIM simulation model, occupation rate, vehicle flowrate, road
Geometric data, and be defaulted as calculating in the real-time accident risk prediction model established in good weather value substitution step 20)
It obtains;
Then, it carries out parameter calibration: emulating accident risk and actual accidents risk in the VISSIM simulation model period to run
The sum of absolute difference is fitness function, is to calculate target with the minimum value of fitness function, is calculated with genetic algorithm or adaptivity
Method calculates the parameter value that calibrating parameters are needed in the corresponding VISSIM simulation model run, which is assigned to VSSIM software
In corresponding parameter;
The parameter value of step 50) calibration using the step 30) and 40), runs VISSIM simulation model, judges by two stages
Whether the difference of the speed in VISSIM simulation model and accident risk and actual conditions demarcated meets required precision, if symbol
It closes, then it will be by the parameter value that step 30) is demarcated with 40) two stages as final calibration result;Otherwise, to run VISSIM
The sum of simulation velocity and the absolute difference of actual measurement speed are fitness function in the simulation model period, with the minimum value of fitness function
To calculate target, to the parameter being determined as in step 30) without calibration, calculated with genetic algorithm or adaptivity algorithm to meeting the tendency of
Calculated result is assigned to corresponding parameter in VISSIM software by the parameter value in capable VISSIM simulation model;Again with operation
The sum of absolute difference of emulation accident risk and actual accidents risk is fitness function in the VISSIM simulation model period, to adapt to
Spending functional minimum value is to calculate target, to the parameter being determined as in step 40) without calibration, with genetic algorithm or adaptivity
Algorithm calculates the parameter value in the VISSIM simulation model of corresponding operation, calculated result is assigned to corresponding in VISSIM software
Parameter.
2. the two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis according to claim 1, feature
It is, acquires real-time traffic flow data in the step 10) as follows:
On highway section, distance is 500 meters to 1500 meters between two adjacent Traffic flow detecting equipment, two adjacent rings
Distance is 5 kilometers to 15 kilometers between the weather station of border, and Traffic flow detecting equipment and environment weather station are uniform along highway
Arrangement, the Traffic flow detecting equipment are electromagnetic induction coil or video traffic flow assay device;
The road geometry data include full-surfaced width, central strip bandwidth, shoulder width, number of track-lines and road alignment whether
For curve.
3. the two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis according to claim 1, feature
Be, the step 30) and 40) in, the follow the bus and two class parameter of lane changing in VISSIM software are specific as follows:
4. the two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis according to claim 1,2 or 3,
Be characterized in that, the step 30) and 40) in, judge the whether dramatically different and real-time accident risk of VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION be distributed whether
It is dramatically different to be all made of following methods:
Whether the variance with speed or real-time accident risk between every two groups of F- test and judge is identical under level of confidence: if
It is identical, then with assume the identical two groups of VELOCITY DISTRIBUTIONs of t- test and judge of variance or real-time accident risk distribution statistically whether
It is dramatically different;
If it is different, being then distributed in statistics with hypothesis different two groups of VELOCITY DISTRIBUTIONs of t- test and judge of variance or real-time accident risk
On it is whether dramatically different.
5. the two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis according to claim 1,2 or 3,
Be characterized in that, the step 30) and 40) in, change any in any of follow the bus of simulation software parameter or lane changing
The value of a parameter is to proceed as follows:
It is first depending on traffic flow parameter and determines with the principle being actually consistent the maximum value and minimum value of parameter, then in this range
Between according to arithmetic progression take 10~20 numerical value, run and these numerical value be assigned to corresponding parameter before VISSIM model, have
How many a parameter values should then carry out the simulation run of respective numbers to the parameter.
6. the two stages parameter calibration method of expressway traffic safety simulation analysis according to claim 1,2 or 3,
It is characterized in that, in the step 50), (1) judgement is passed through in the VISSIM simulation model that two stages have been demarcated according to the following formula
Whether speed and accident risk meet required precision:
If formula (1) is set up, meet required precision, otherwise do not meet required precision, wherein α is precision, the value between 0~1.
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