CN106462907B - Energy supply and demand operation guide device and energy supply and demand operation method in iron works - Google Patents
Energy supply and demand operation guide device and energy supply and demand operation method in iron works Download PDFInfo
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- CN106462907B CN106462907B CN201580025259.4A CN201580025259A CN106462907B CN 106462907 B CN106462907 B CN 106462907B CN 201580025259 A CN201580025259 A CN 201580025259A CN 106462907 B CN106462907 B CN 106462907B
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Abstract
In the energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to an embodiment of the present invention, the alarm display unit (7) displays alarm information on the guidance screen (8) when the operation cost calculated value is lower than the operation cost performance value, and when the operation cost correction value is higher than the operation cost performance value, or when the increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost calculated by the operation cost increase amount calculation unit (4) is equal to or greater than a set value. The alarm display unit (7) outputs the actual result value of the energy usage supply demand at the current time and the optimum energy usage supply demand calculated by the optimization calculation unit (5). This can suppress an increase in the operating cost of energy utilization due to an error in the prediction of the supply-demand balance of future energy utilization.
Description
Technical Field
The present invention relates to an energy supply and demand operation guidance device for assisting supply and demand operation work for energy utilization of by-product gas, steam, electric power, and the like in an iron works, and an energy supply and demand operation method in an iron works.
Background
In general, in an iron works, blast furnace gas (B gas) generated from a by-product of a blast furnace, coke gas (C gas) generated from a coke oven, and converter gas (LD gas) generated from an LD converter are reused as they are or as a mixed gas (M gas) in a factory or a home power plant. Here, when the operation is performed in which the gas exceeds the level of the gas tank storing the gas and the gas becomes surplus, the surplus gas has to be released to the atmosphere, and the surplus gas becomes a loss. On the other hand, in a situation where the gas demand is larger than the gas supply amount and the gas is insufficient, the operation of the plant is affected, and the loss is also caused. Therefore, in the iron works, it is necessary to appropriately transport the gas in accordance with the supply demand of the gas.
In addition, in the iron works, it is necessary to appropriately use steam as in the case of gas, and especially, it is necessary to avoid shortage of steam. That is, in addition to the steam supply amount from the LD gas waste heat Boiler, it is sometimes necessary to use the steam supply amount obtained by extraction (when steam is taken out from the middle of the Turbine) from a steam Turbine for home power generation such as BTG (Boiler steam Turbine Generator) or CDQ (Coke Dry Quenching system) with respect to the steam demand amount without insufficiency. Further, there is a restriction that the power cannot exceed the upper limit of the amount of power received from the outside.
As described above, in iron works, low-cost gas, steam, and electric power are required to be transported. Under such a background, a technique for optimizing the operation of an iron works or a plant for supplying various energies in terms of cost has been proposed. Specifically, patent documents 1 and 2 and non-patent document 1 describe a method of formulating a plant and its operation cost into a mathematical plan framework and solving an optimal operation plan of the plant by using various optimization methods.
Prior art documents
Patent document
Patent document 1: japanese patent application laid-open No. 2010-287031
Patent document 2: japanese patent laid-open publication No. 2006-85236
Non-patent document
Non-patent document 1: "predictive control to hybrid System and application of Process control to hybrid System", System/control/information, Vol.46, No.3, pp.110-119, 2002
Disclosure of Invention
Problems to be solved by the invention
In general, a person in charge of supply and demand operation for energy utilization in an iron works is focused on the problem that there is an error in optimization calculation by a computer, and needs to determine whether to perform operation of the output of an energy supply and demand operation guidance device at the current time or to perform operation by self-determination. This is because, in the energy supply and demand operation guidance device using the method described in patent documents 1 and 2 or non-patent document 1, since the cost of the optimal operation plan increases due to the prediction error of the supply and demand balance of future energy use, the operation cost may increase when the energy supply and demand operation guidance device is operated in accordance with the output of the energy supply and demand operation guidance device as compared with the current trend operation.
However, the methods described in patent documents 1 and 2 and non-patent document 1 cannot present to the user information indicating whether or not the user should perform an operation in accordance with the output of the energy supply and demand operation guidance device. Therefore, according to the methods described in patent documents 1 and 2 or non-patent document 1, as a result of performing the operation in accordance with the output of the energy supply and demand operation guidance device, the operation cost is increased compared to the case of performing the current trend operation, and then the energy supply and demand operation guidance device may not be effectively used.
The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object thereof is to provide an energy supply and demand operation guidance device and an energy supply and demand operation method in an iron works, which can suppress an increase in operation cost due to a prediction error of a supply and demand balance for future energy utilization.
Means for solving the problems
An energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to the present invention is an energy supply and demand operation guidance device for assisting supply and demand operation of energy utilization in an iron plant, and is characterized by comprising: an optimization calculation unit that calculates an optimal supply-and-demand operation cost for energy utilization and an optimal supply-and-demand amount for energy utilization by optimization calculation; a prediction error estimation unit that calculates an estimated value of a future energy usage supply and demand prediction error using an actual result value of the supply and demand prediction error including past energy usage at a current time; an operation cost increase amount calculation unit that calculates an increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost of energy usage corresponding to the estimated value of the supply and demand prediction error of energy usage calculated by the prediction error estimation unit; an operation cost correction unit that calculates, as an operation cost correction value, a value obtained by adding the increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost calculated by the operation cost increase amount calculation unit to the supply and demand operation cost calculated by the optimization calculation unit; and an alarm output unit having the following functions: outputting alarm information when the supply and demand running cost calculated by the optimization calculation unit is lower than an actual value of the supply and demand running cost of energy usage when the current trend operation is performed, and when the operation cost correction value is higher than the actual value of the supply and demand running cost of energy usage when the current trend operation is performed, or when an increase amount of the supply and demand running cost calculated by the operation cost increase amount calculation unit is equal to or greater than a set value; and outputting the actual result of the energy utilization supply demand at the current time and the optimal energy utilization supply demand calculated by the optimization calculation unit.
The energy supply and demand management guidance apparatus of the present invention is based on the above invention, and is characterized in that the energy utilization includes at least one of by-product gas, steam, and electric power generated in an iron plant.
The energy supply and demand operation guidance device of the present invention is based on the above invention, and the operation cost increase calculation unit calculates an increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost using a function having the prediction error as a variable.
The method for utilizing energy supply and demand in an iron works of the present invention is characterized by comprising the steps of: the supply and demand operation of energy utilization in the iron works is performed according to the information output from the energy supply and demand operation guidance device of the present invention.
Effects of the invention
According to the energy supply and demand operation guidance device and the energy supply and demand operation method in the iron works of the present invention, it is possible to suppress an increase in the operation cost of energy utilization due to an error in prediction of the supply and demand balance of future energy utilization.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an energy supply and demand management guidance device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a diagram showing an example of data stored in the energy supply and demand prediction accuracy database shown in fig. 1.
Fig. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a relationship between an increase in gas supply and demand running cost and a gas supply and demand prediction error.
Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the tendency of the operating cost of energy utilization in an iron works.
Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the alarm output time of the energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to the embodiment of the present invention corresponding to the tendency shown in fig. 4.
Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of temporal changes in supply and demand prediction errors in energy utilization.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, the structure of an energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
An energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to an embodiment of the present invention is a device for assisting supply and demand operation of energy utilization in an iron plant. The energy utilization includes at least one of by-product gases (B gas, C gas, LD gas, M gas), steam, and electric power generated in the iron works.
As shown in fig. 1, an energy supply and demand operation guidance device 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention is configured by an information processing device such as a personal computer or a workstation, and includes an energy supply and demand prediction accuracy Database (DB)2, a prediction error estimation unit 3, an operation cost increase amount calculation unit 4, an optimization calculation unit 5, an operation cost correction unit 6, an alarm display unit 7, and a guidance screen 8 as main components. The prediction error estimating unit 3, the operation cost increase amount calculating unit 4, the optimization calculating unit 5, the operation cost correcting unit 6, and the alarm display unit 7 are realized by executing computer programs by an arithmetic processing device such as a CPU in the information processing device.
The energy supply and demand prediction accuracy database 2 is configured by a nonvolatile storage device, and stores data of predicted values and actual results of energy consumption and supply amount at a past time in the form shown in fig. 2, for example. Here, the predicted values of the demand and supply amount are predicted demand and supply amount before a calculation cycle of the time when the data is stored in the energy supply and demand prediction accuracy database 2.
The prediction error estimation unit 3 acquires data of predicted values and actual results of the required amount and the supplied amount of energy usage in a predetermined period from the energy supply and demand prediction accuracy database 2 for each predetermined calculation cycle, which is a guided operation cycle. The prediction error estimation unit 3 calculates in advance a prediction error (predicted value-actual result value) of the required energy usage amount and the supply amount at each time point in the period specified by the user, using the acquired data. The prediction error estimation unit 3 estimates a prediction error of the future required amount and supply amount of energy use using the calculated prediction error of the required amount and supply amount of energy use.
The prediction error of the future required amount and the supply amount of energy use can be estimated by, for example, calculating an average value or a weighted average value of the prediction errors of the required amount and the supply amount at each time within a predetermined period. The prediction error of the future required amount and supply amount of energy use may be determined as the total energy use or only the utilization of interest.
The prediction error estimating unit 3 calculates a difference between an estimated value of a prediction error of a future energy use supply amount and an estimated value of a prediction error of a future energy use demand amount as an estimated value of a prediction error of a future energy use supply amount, and outputs the calculated value to the operating cost increase amount calculating unit 4.
The operation cost increase amount calculation unit 4 calculates an increase amount of the energy use supply and demand operation cost corresponding to the estimated value of the future prediction error of the energy use supplied from the prediction error estimation unit 3. Specifically, as shown in fig. 3, for example, when the prediction error of the future supply and demand amount of energy utilization increases, the supply and demand operation cost of energy utilization increases. Therefore, the increase in the supply and demand running cost can be obtained by previously analyzing and functionalizing the relationship between the prediction error of the supply and demand and the increase in the supply and demand running cost, and inputting the estimation value of the prediction error of the supply and demand output from the prediction error estimating unit 3 to the function. The operating cost increase amount calculation unit 4 outputs the increase amount of the calculated supply and demand operating cost to the operating cost correction unit 6.
The optimization calculation unit 5 calculates the optimal supply and demand operation cost for energy utilization and the calculated value of the supply and demand amount by optimization calculation. Specifically, the optimization calculation unit 5 calculates the optimal supply and demand operation cost and calculated value of the supply and demand (operation cost calculated value, supply and demand calculated value) for energy utilization by inputting the operation performance data and the operation plan information of the iron works to the mathematical expression obtained by formulating the constraint conditions or costs related to the supply and demand operation for energy utilization in advance as a mixed integer planning problem which is one of the mathematical planning problems. As a solution for the optimum solution, a branch limiting method or the like can be used, but details are described in prior art documents such as non-patent document 1.
The optimization calculation unit 5 calculates an actual result value (operation cost actual result value) of the supply and demand operation cost of energy usage at the current time. Here, the operation cost performance may be a supply and demand operation cost before a calculation cycle when the current trend operation is performed. The optimization calculation unit 5 outputs the calculated operation cost calculation value and the operation cost achievement value to the operation cost correction unit 6. The optimization calculation unit 5 displays and outputs information on the operation conditions of the iron works on the guidance screen 8.
The operating cost correction unit 6 calculates, as an operating cost correction value, a value obtained by adding the increase amount of the operating cost output from the operating cost increase amount calculation unit 4 to the supply and demand operating cost calculation value output from the optimization calculation unit 5. The operation cost correction unit 6 outputs information on the operation cost calculation value, the operation cost correction value, and the operation cost performance value to the alarm display unit 7.
The alarm display unit 7 displays alarm information on the guide screen 8 in accordance with the information output from the operation cost correction unit 6. Specifically, when the operation cost calculation value is lower than the operation cost actual performance value, and when the operation cost correction value is higher than the operation cost actual performance value, the supply and demand operation costs are reversed due to an error in prediction of the supply and demand amount of energy use. Therefore, in this case, since the cost increases when the guidance is given, the alarm display unit 7 displays the alarm information on the guidance screen 8. Similarly, when the calculated operating cost value is lower than the actual operating cost value and the increase amount of the supply and demand operating cost is larger than the reference value of the supply and demand operating cost, the effect and reliability as a guidance cannot be expected, and therefore the warning display unit 7 displays warning information on the guidance screen 8. The alarm display unit 7 displays the actual result value of the supply and demand amount of energy utilization at the current time and the calculated supply and demand amount value calculated by the optimization calculation unit 5.
The operator determines whether or not to perform the supply and demand operation for energy utilization in accordance with the output of the energy supply and demand operation guidance device, or to perform the operation by his own determination, based on whether or not the alarm information, the actual result value of the supply and demand amount of energy utilization at the current time, and the calculated supply and demand amount value calculated by the optimization calculation unit 5 are displayed on the guidance screen 8. As a result, it is possible to suppress an increase in the cost of operating energy utilization due to an error in predicting the future energy utilization supply-demand balance as a result of operation in accordance with the output of the energy supply-demand operation guidance device.
As is clear from the above description, in the energy supply and demand operation guidance device 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention, the alarm display unit 7 displays the alarm information on the guidance screen 8 when the operation cost calculation value is lower than the operation cost achievement value, when the operation cost correction value is higher than the operation cost achievement value, or when the increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost calculated by the operation cost increase amount calculation unit 4 is equal to or greater than the set value. The alarm display unit 7 outputs the actual result value of the energy usage supply demand at the current time and the optimum energy usage supply demand calculated by the optimization calculation unit 5. This can suppress an increase in the operating cost of energy utilization due to an error in the prediction of the supply-demand balance of future energy utilization.
Examples
Fig. 4 shows a tendency of the operating cost (operating cost calculated value, operating cost correction value, and operating cost actual value) of energy utilization in the iron works, and fig. 5 shows an alarm output time of the energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to the embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 5, depending on the increase in the operating cost due to the supply and demand prediction error of energy use shown in fig. 6, it is known that an alarm is output at the time (9 to 12 hours and 24 hours) when the operating cost correction value is equal to or greater than the operating cost achievement value. This makes it possible to suppress an increase in the operating cost of energy utilization due to an error in prediction of the future energy utilization supply-demand balance as a result of operation in accordance with the output of the energy supply-demand operation guidance device that outputs the guidance value for all energy utilization. In the present embodiment, for the sake of simplicity of explanation, the evaluation related to the prediction of the C gas supply amount is limited, but the present invention may be set in accordance with each required amount and each supply amount for the entire energy use.
Although the embodiments to which the invention made by the present inventors is applied have been described above, the present invention is not limited by the description and drawings that are part of the disclosure of the present invention based on the embodiments. That is, other embodiments, examples, operation techniques, and the like, which are made by those skilled in the art based on the present embodiment, are all included in the scope of the present invention.
Industrial applicability
According to the present invention, it is possible to provide an energy supply and demand operation guidance device and an energy supply and demand operation method in an iron works, which can suppress an increase in operation cost due to a prediction error of a supply and demand balance for future energy use.
Description of the reference symbols
1 energy supply and demand application guide device
2 energy supply and demand prediction accuracy Database (DB)
3 prediction error estimating unit
4 operating cost rise calculating unit
5 optimization calculating part
6 operating cost correcting unit
7 alarm display part
8 guide Picture
Claims (4)
1. An energy supply and demand operation guidance device for assisting supply and demand operation of energy utilization in an iron plant, the energy supply and demand operation guidance device comprising:
an optimization calculation unit that calculates an optimal supply-and-demand operation cost for energy utilization and an optimal supply-and-demand amount for energy utilization by optimization calculation;
a prediction error estimation unit that calculates an estimated value of a future energy usage supply and demand prediction error using an actual result value of the supply and demand prediction error including past energy usage at a current time;
an operation cost increase amount calculation unit that calculates an increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost of energy usage corresponding to the estimated value of the supply and demand prediction error of energy usage calculated by the prediction error estimation unit;
an operation cost correction unit that calculates, as an operation cost correction value, a value obtained by adding the increase amount of the supply and demand operation cost calculated by the operation cost increase amount calculation unit to the supply and demand operation cost calculated by the optimization calculation unit; and
an alarm output unit having the following functions: outputting alarm information when the supply and demand running cost calculated by the optimization calculation unit is lower than an actual value of the supply and demand running cost of energy usage when the current trend operation is performed, and when the operation cost correction value is higher than the actual value of the supply and demand running cost of energy usage when the current trend operation is performed, or when an increase amount of the supply and demand running cost calculated by the operation cost increase amount calculation unit is equal to or greater than a set value; and outputting the actual result of the energy utilization supply demand at the current time and the optimal energy utilization supply demand calculated by the optimization calculation unit.
2. The energy supply and demand exercise guidance device of claim 1,
the energy utilization includes at least one of by-product gas, steam, and electric power generated in the iron works.
3. The energy supply and demand exercise guidance device according to claim 1 or 2,
the operating cost increase calculating unit calculates an increase amount of the supply and demand operating cost using a function having the prediction error as a variable.
4. A method for utilizing energy supply and demand in an iron works is characterized in that,
the method comprises the following steps: supply and demand operation work for energy utilization in an iron works is performed according to information output from the energy supply and demand operation guidance device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.
Applications Claiming Priority (3)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| JP2014-102720 | 2014-05-16 | ||
| JP2014102720 | 2014-05-16 | ||
| PCT/JP2015/063431 WO2015174359A1 (en) | 2014-05-16 | 2015-05-11 | Energy supply and demand operational guidance device and energy supply and demand operational method for inside of iron mill |
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| Publication Number | Publication Date |
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| CN106462907A CN106462907A (en) | 2017-02-22 |
| CN106462907B true CN106462907B (en) | 2021-08-10 |
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| JP (1) | JP6052467B2 (en) |
| KR (1) | KR101852289B1 (en) |
| CN (1) | CN106462907B (en) |
| WO (1) | WO2015174359A1 (en) |
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| JP3992407B2 (en) * | 1999-10-15 | 2007-10-17 | 多川 忠大 | Luminescent block |
| CN106126770A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2016-11-16 | 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所 | S-shaped model based steel demand prediction method |
| JP6750362B2 (en) * | 2016-07-20 | 2020-09-02 | 三菱自動車工業株式会社 | Logistics cost management system |
| WO2021210290A1 (en) | 2020-04-15 | 2021-10-21 | Ｊｆｅスチール株式会社 | Energy supply/demand operation guidance device and method for energy supply/demand operation in ironworks |
| KR20230106682A (en) * | 2020-12-22 | 2023-07-13 | 제이에프이 스틸 가부시키가이샤 | Energy management support device, energy management support method, and steelworks operation method |
| TWI755986B (en) * | 2020-12-22 | 2022-02-21 | 日商Ｊｆｅ鋼鐵股份有限公司 | Energy Utilization Support Device, Energy Utilization Support Method, and Steel Plant Operation Method |
| WO2022186330A1 (en) | 2021-03-05 | 2022-09-09 | Ｊｆｅスチール株式会社 | Energy demand and supply operation guidance device and system of same, optimization calculation server device and program for same, guidance terminal device and program for same, energy demand and supply operation method in place of business, and energy demand and supply operation program |
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| JP2004355065A (en) * | 2003-05-27 | 2004-12-16 | Hitachi Ltd | Work process display method and work process display apparatus |
| JP2005287220A (en) * | 2004-03-30 | 2005-10-13 | Jfe Engineering Kk | Production volume receipt control method |
| JP4154373B2 (en) * | 2004-08-06 | 2008-09-24 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Power supply business risk management support system |
| JP4338610B2 (en) * | 2004-09-14 | 2009-10-07 | 東京瓦斯株式会社 | Plant optimum operation plan creation system |
| JP2008112288A (en) * | 2006-10-30 | 2008-05-15 | Jfe Steel Kk | Prediction type creation device, result prediction device, quality design device, prediction type creation method and method for manufacturing product |
| JP5271162B2 (en) | 2009-06-11 | 2013-08-21 | 日本電信電話株式会社 | Equipment plan creation device and equipment plan creation method |
| US20120065793A1 (en) * | 2010-02-25 | 2012-03-15 | Kaji Mitsuru | Demand and supply control apparatus, demand and supply control method, and program |
| CN102722754B (en) * | 2011-03-31 | 2015-08-19 | 北京三博中自科技有限公司 | Coking industry is based on the coal gas dynamic balancing dispatching method of expert system and system |
| JP5892054B2 (en) | 2012-12-13 | 2016-03-23 | Ｊｆｅスチール株式会社 | Apparatus for estimating the amount of heat of mixed gas and method of estimating the amount of heat of mixed gas |
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| WO2015174359A1 (en) | 2015-11-19 |
| CN106462907A (en) | 2017-02-22 |
| JP6052467B2 (en) | 2016-12-27 |
| KR20160144421A (en) | 2016-12-16 |
| KR101852289B1 (en) | 2018-04-25 |
| JPWO2015174359A1 (en) | 2017-04-20 |
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