CN106407625B - A kind of civil engineering structure reliability develops and method for predicting residual useful life - Google Patents
A kind of civil engineering structure reliability develops and method for predicting residual useful life Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of evolution of civil engineering structure reliability and method for predicting residual useful life.Firstly, judging the possible controlling sections of structure according to numerical analysis or mechanical knowledge；Secondly, assuming that each parameter obeys distribution by the statistical result of initial designs information, and thus calculate the probability distribution that structure reactance and load are obeyed；Again, the stiffness degradation coefficient D (i) under load, contraction and Creep Effect is calculated；Further, structure reactance distribution function is updated, thus obtains drag probability distribution at this time, and arrive to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；Then, reliability-time graph, structure residual service life after pre- geodesic structure experience load step i are established；Finally, constantly updating predicting residual useful life as a result, and using the service life of each controlling sections most short value as the remaining life of total in conjunction with real measured data.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of evolution of civil engineering structure reliability and method for predicting residual useful life.
Background technique
In order to assess service performance of the engineering structure in life cycle management (including stages such as design, construction, operations), state
The inside and outside life cycle analysis method to structure has carried out a large amount of research.It is structure service life and material property, detail structure, sudden and violent
The many factors such as dewiness state, degradation mechanism and its comprehensive function are related, it is difficult to quantitative analysis.Simultaneously because the influence of comprehensive function
Mechanism is considerably complicated, is typically only capable to consider some principal element, used prediction side at present to the prediction of structure service life
Method is related to numerous subjects.Existing structural life-time prediction technique is based primarily upon experience, analogy, accelerated test, mathematical theory mould
In terms of type, theory of mechanics model, probability analysis, Structural Reliability Theory, gray theory, economic benefits etc.[1], wherein reliability
Theory is a kind of ideal method, is established on the basis of RELIABILITY INDEX and time-varying relationship, it is believed that structural reliability decaying
The time of acceptable maximum value, the as service life of structure are increased to acceptable minimum value or failure probability.
In structural reliability evaluation process, if can fully consider the existing historical information of structure (including loading history,
Maintenance maintenance history, natural deterioration state etc.), so that it may it obtains more accurate current structure bearing capacity and updates result.It is tying
During structure operation, performance deterioration is the phenomenon that certainly existing, so that considering that the structural reliability of performance deterioration is corrected in structure
Become in life prediction particularly important.In addition, (such as material discrete, component adds the uncertain factor in engineering structure
Work foozle, external load are uncertain) it is also generally existing, it can if still calculating structure using deterministic theory and method at this time
By degree, necessarily causes prediction result unreliable, have greater difference with actual conditions.Therefore, it is examined simultaneously in structural life-time prediction
It is very necessary for considering the influence of uncertain factor.
Currently, existing structure reliability assessment and life prediction lack real-time monitoring information to carry out in real time computation model
Amendment may cause prediction conclusion and very big deviation occurs.It is therefore proposed that a kind of can comprehensively consider structure history external load effect
Answer, the reliability of the factors such as performance (drag) deterioration state and uncertainty develops and method for predicting residual useful life, be to need
The practical problem of research.
Engineering structure is from design, construction to coming into operation, and after runing using the several years, performance can gradually degenerate.
For structure in the construction phase, the risk probability of failure is big；In validity period, failure risk probability is reduced；And after entering aging period, it loses
Effect relative risk can be gradually increased again[2]。
Structure service stage fail-safe analysis has following characteristics compared with the design phase[3][4], the several years are used in structure
Afterwards, the load maximum value that can have been undergone to the estimation of future load is distributed as foundation.When the own warp of the various components of existing structure
When going through the inspection of some loads and not failing, so that it may determine least resistance value possessed by component.Since people also fail to
Have to structure reactance and comprehensively and accurately recognize, so that drag can only still be handled when calculating by stochastic variable.Therefore, existing structure
Reliability assessment and measurement and statistics precision have much relations.Environment locating for structure is objective reality simultaneously,
Therefore the deterioration rule of material property can be investigated by test statistics and be determined.
The calculation of structure reliability degree for considering that drag changes over time is more complicated.Document[5]Have studied accumulated damage flowering structure
The problem analysis of reliability；Document[6]Have studied structure reactance and when load effect changes over time structural reliability analysis
Method, document[7]The concept of DYNAMIC RELIABILITY, document are proposed according to this characteristics of changing over time[8]With Monte Carlo
Importance sampling technique has studied the System Reliability problem of Time variable structure.Document[9]It proposes and designs unification with existing structural reliability
The reliability analyzing method that the considerations of standard method is coordinated drag changes over time, derives the calculation formula of equivalent drag.Text
It offers[10]Using the method for discretization, with 10 years for interval, the Quasi dynamic reliability calculating of certain bridge has been carried out.Document[11]It is special with covering
Caro method has carried out the life forecast of damage concrete bridge.Document[12]Bridge pile foundation structural system has been carried out reliably
Property analysis, but its still fall within static stability calculating scope.Document[13]To RC Members of Highway Bridge normal use
The reliability of limiting condition is analyzed, but due to using Central Point Method, computational accuracy is not high.
In addition, during the Reliability assessment of structure, if the existing historical information of structure (including outer lotus can be fully considered
Carry history, maintenance maintenance history, natural deterioration etc.), so that it may it obtains more accurate structural bearing capacity and updates result.Text
It offers[14][15][16]Using bayes method, structure reactance is updated using specifying information and is distributed, i.e., by existing structure in validity period
Loading history be also used as a kind of information, propose the concept of " working load verifying ", but do not consider the influence that structural behaviour deteriorates.
Document[17]Proposing can consider that the decay at any time bearing capacity of history and bridge load history of bridge capacity updates mould simultaneously
Type, but need to assume structural bearing capacity attenuation function before structure use, it is affected to life prediction precision, Practical
Property is not strong.
From the foregoing it will be appreciated that there is also one for the reliablity estimation of civil engineering structure and remaining life prediction technique at present
A little urgent problems to be solved:
1) uncertain influence is not considered in structural life-time prediction.Influence structural safety performance influence factor it is more, when
Between span it is long, during which to be influenced by many uncertain factors so that structural reliability assessment will certainly probability of occurrence meaning
Deviation under justice, influences life prediction accuracy.
2) structural behaviour deterioration and structure-based detection information are not comprehensively considered to correct and predict reliability of structure.
Currently used time-dependent ability index can only be counted as the relative indicatrix of metrology structure reliability in general detection data
On the basis of rule, utilization and excavation new information, real-time update structural reliability is then a kind of dynamic thinking, closer to work
Journey actual conditions.
Bibliography
[1]James R.Clifton.Predicting the Service Life of Concrete[J].ACI
Materials Journal,1993,90(6):445-453.
[2] State of Zhao's fence, Jin Weiliang, tribute prosperous Structural Reliability Theory [M] China Construction Industry Press, 2000.
[3] Niu Ditao, Wang Qinglin, Chen Huiyi existing structure reliability evaluation summarize [J], engineering mechanics, and 1994, supplementary issue；
1518-1524.
[4] safety grades that Liu rushes structural system divide [D], Tsinghua University's doctoral thesis, and 1995.
[5] Hiroyuki Kameda, Takeshi Koike:Reliability Theory of Deterioration
Structures,Journal of the Structural Division,l 975,101(1)
[6]Geidl V,Saunders S,Calculation of Reliability for Time-varying
Loads and Resistances, Structural Safety, 1987,4 (4)
[7] Wang Guangyuan, the DYNAMIC RELIABILITY and its maintenance theories pre-test [J] of structure during one's term of military service, Harbin architectural engineering
Institute's journal, 1990
[8]Li C.Q,A Case Study on the Reliability Analysis of Deteriorating
Structures,Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineering,Structures and
Buildings,1995,110(s).
[9] tribute is prosperous, and State of Zhao fence considers that the structural reliability point that drag changes over time rolls over [J], building structure journal,
1998,10:43-51.
[10] Hao Haixia, Zhang Jianren, the fail-safe analysis [J] that plate girder of reinforced concrete bridge is degenerated, external bridge, 2000
(4): 43-48
[11] Sun Baojun is translated, and damages the life forecast [J] of concrete bridge, external bridge, 2000, (I): 47-53.
[12] all ages are bright, Zhao Shanrui, Huang Guangsheng, Pile Shaft of Bridge Pile Foundation Structure System fail-safe analysis [J], and southwest is handed over
Logical people journal, 2000, (8): 366-370
[13] Zhang Shiduo, Zhang Qiwei RC Members of Highway Bridge stop the reliability analysis for being often used limiting condition
[J], Chinese Highway journal, 1992.4.
[14]Stewart MG.Time-Dependent Reliability of Existing RC Structures
[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,1997,123(7):896-901.
[15]Stewart MG,Val DV.Role of Load History in Reliability-based
Decision Analysis of Aging Bridges[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,ASCE,
1999,125(7):776-783.
[16]Kim S,Stewart MG.Structural reliability of concrete bridges
including improved chloride-incluced corrosion models[J].Structural Safety,
Elsevier,2000,22(4):313-333.。
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to develop and remaining life in view of the above-mentioned problems, providing a kind of civil engineering structure reliability
Prediction technique, this method advantage are: 1) it is contemplated that structural parameters uncertainty and Stiffness Deterioration situation, believe in conjunction with actual measurement
Cease real-time update model of structural reliability；2) by calculating reliability of the structure at any time with external load variation, reliability is obtained
Evolution curve at any time, and estimate structure residual life in conjunction with the RELIABILITY INDEX of the curve and structure sometime, i.e.,
Structural life-time prediction is regarded as dynamic evolution process.
To achieve the above object, the technical scheme is that a kind of civil engineering structure reliability develops and the remaining longevity
Prediction technique is ordered, firstly, judging the possible controlling sections of structure according to numerical analysis or mechanical knowledge；Secondly, by initially setting
The statistical result of meter information assumes that each parameter obeys distribution, and thus calculates the probability point that structure reactance and load are obeyed
Cloth；Again, the stiffness degradation coefficient D (i) under load, contraction and Creep Effect is calculated；Further, it updates structure reactance and is distributed letter
Thus number obtains drag probability distribution at this time, and arrives to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；Then, reliability-time is established
Curve, pre- geodesic structure experience load walk structure residual service life after i；Finally, constantly updating remaining life in conjunction with real measured data
Prediction result, and using the service life of each controlling sections most short value as the remaining life of total.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the specific implementation steps are as follows for this method,
S1: the controlling sections that structure is likely to occur are analyzed and determined；
S2: according to the statistical result of initial designs information, it is assumed that the probability-distribution function of each structural parameters；
Structure reactance: being regarded as the function of each initial parameter by S3, establishes drag statistic, obtains the probability distribution of drag
Density function fR(r)；
S4: calculated rigidity attenuation coefficient D (i)；
A) external load that may be born by initial designs information and investigation situation pre- geodesic structure future, obtains external load-
Time graph；
B) rigidity of the structure under different load actions is calculated, in conjunction with rigidity-time graph a) obtained under the influence of load；
C) deformation-time graph under structure both shrinks and Creep Effect is calculated using empirical equation, derives and creeps, receives
Contracting and load joint effect lower section rigidity-time graph；The rigidity of t moment is denoted as B (t)；
D) stiffness degradation for considering structure control section, is expressed as formula (1) for the rigidity of controlling sections
B (t)=B0·D(t) (1)
Wherein, B0For the rigidity of initial time controlling sections, B (t) is that external load F (t) acts on the rigid of moment controlling sections
Degree, D (t) are t moment controlling sections stiffness degradation coefficient, i.e. the ratio between t moment structure reactance and initial resistive force；
The stiffness degradation coefficient D (t) of i-th load action moment t is finally denoted as D (i)；
S5: consider to include structural parameters, the uncertain factor for measuring noise, regard measured data as stochastic variable, obtain
To the probability distributing density function F of external loadQ,i(r)；
S6: by fR(r)、FQ,i(r), D (i) substitutes into formula (2), and it is general greater than r to obtain drag after living through i-th load
Rate is updated to FR,n-times n(r):
Thus drag probability distribution at this time is obtained, and arrives to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；
S7: comprehensive to the estimation of the following external load and step S6's as a result, establishing structural reliability-time graph；Together
When calculate existing structure target reliability index, decision structure RELIABILITY INDEX be less than target reliability index at the time of for lose
Effect, and then remaining life after pre- geodesic structure experience load step i；
S8: measurement structure deformation values update the rigidity of structure degenerate case of step S3；
S9: repeating step S5, S6, S7, S8, constantly update the prediction result of remaining life, is finally cut with each control
Remaining life of the service life in the face most short value as total.
Compared to the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
The present invention can preferably consider that the civil engineering structure reliability under the influence of the deterioration of uncertain and performance develops
The remaining life of process and pre- geodesic structure, the advantage is that: 1) it is contemplated that structural parameters are uncertain and rigidity is moved back
Change situation, in conjunction with real measured data real-time update model of structural reliability；2) changed at any time with external load by calculating structure
Reliability obtains the evolution curve of reliability at any time, and then comes in conjunction with the RELIABILITY INDEX of the curve and structure sometime
Estimate structure residual life, i.e., structural life-time prediction is regarded as dynamic evolution process.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method for the present invention flow chart.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, technical solution of the present invention is specifically described.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of civil engineering structure reliability of the invention develops and method for predicting residual useful life, firstly,
The possible controlling sections of structure are judged according to numerical analysis or mechanical knowledge；Secondly, passing through the statistical result of initial designs information
Assuming that each parameter obeys distribution, and thus calculate the probability distribution that structure reactance and load are obeyed；Again, calculate load,
Stiffness degradation coefficient D (i) under contraction and Creep Effect；Further, structure reactance distribution function is updated, is thus obtained at this time
Drag probability distribution, and arrive to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；Then, reliability-time graph, pre- geodesic structure experience are established
Load walks structure residual service life after i；Finally, constantly updating predicting residual useful life as a result, and with each control in conjunction with real measured data
Remaining life of the service life in the section processed most short value as total；The specific implementation steps are as follows for this method,
S1: the controlling sections that structure is likely to occur are analyzed and determined；
S2: according to the statistical result of initial designs information, it is assumed that the probability-distribution function of each structural parameters；
Structure reactance: being regarded as the function of each initial parameter by S3, establishes drag statistic, obtains the probability distribution of drag
Density function fR(r)；
S4: calculated rigidity attenuation coefficient D (i)；
A) external load that may be born by initial designs information and investigation situation pre- geodesic structure future, obtains external load-
Time graph；
B) rigidity of the structure under different load actions is calculated, in conjunction with rigidity-time graph a) obtained under the influence of load；
C) deformation-time graph under structure both shrinks and Creep Effect is calculated using empirical equation, derives and creeps, receives
Contracting and load joint effect lower section rigidity-time graph；The rigidity of t moment is denoted as B (t)；
D) stiffness degradation for considering structure control section, is expressed as formula (1) for the rigidity of controlling sections
B (t)=B0·D(t) (1)
Wherein, B0For the rigidity of initial time controlling sections, B (t) is that external load F (t) acts on the rigid of moment controlling sections
Degree, D (t) are t moment controlling sections stiffness degradation coefficient, i.e. the ratio between t moment structure reactance and initial resistive force；
The stiffness degradation coefficient D (t) of i-th load action moment t is finally denoted as D (i)；
S5: consider to include structural parameters, the uncertain factor for measuring noise, regard measured data as stochastic variable, obtain
To the probability distributing density function F of external loadQ,i(r)；
S6: by fR(r)、FQ,i(r), D (i) substitutes into formula (2), and it is general greater than r to obtain drag after living through i-th load
Rate is updated to FR,n-times n(r):
Thus drag probability distribution at this time is obtained, and arrives to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；
S7: comprehensive to the estimation of the following external load and step S6's as a result, establishing structural reliability-time graph；Together
When calculate existing structure target reliability index, decision structure RELIABILITY INDEX be less than target reliability index at the time of for lose
Effect, and then remaining life after pre- geodesic structure experience load step i；
S8: measurement structure deformation values update the rigidity of structure degenerate case of step S3；
S9: repeating step S5, S6, S7, S8, constantly update the prediction result of remaining life, is finally cut with each control
Remaining life of the service life in the face most short value as total.
The following are specific implementation processes of the invention.
Technical solution of the present invention is as shown in Figure 1.
The process that the present invention constantly updates structural life-time prognosis modelling at one, technology implementation process are described below:
Step 1: analyzing and determining the controlling sections that structure is likely to occur, such as stress least favorable section；
Step 2: according to the statistical result of initial designs information, it is assumed that the probability-distribution function of each structural parameters；
Step 3: structure reactance being regarded as to the function of each initial parameter, establishes drag statistic, obtains the probability of drag
Distribution density function fR(r)；
Step 4: calculated rigidity attenuation coefficient D (i)；
A) external load that may be born by initial designs information and investigation situation pre- geodesic structure future, obtains external load-
Time graph；
B) rigidity of the structure under different load actions is calculated, in conjunction with rigidity-time graph a) obtained under the influence of load；
C) deformation-time graph under structure both shrinks and Creep Effect is calculated using empirical equation, derives and creeps, receives
Contracting and load joint effect lower section rigidity-time graph；The rigidity of t moment is denoted as B (t)；
D) stiffness degradation for considering structure control section, is expressed as formula (1) for the rigidity of controlling sections
B (t)=B0·D(t) (1)
Wherein, B0For the rigidity of initial time controlling sections, B (t) is that external load F (t) acts on the rigid of moment controlling sections
Degree, D (t) are t moment controlling sections stiffness degradation coefficient, i.e. the ratio between t moment structure reactance and initial resistive force.
The stiffness degradation coefficient D (t) of i-th load action moment t is finally denoted as D (i), is used for step 6.
Step 5: considering the uncertain factors such as structural parameters, measurement noise, regard measured data as stochastic variable, obtain
The probability distributing density function F of external loadQ,i(r)；
Step 6: by fR(r)、FQ,i(r), D (i) substitutes into formula (2), obtains drag after living through i-th load and is greater than r's
Probability updating is FR,n-times n(r):
Thus drag probability distribution at this time is obtained, and arrives to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；
Step 7: comprehensive estimation and step 6 to the following external load as a result, establishing structural reliability-time graph.
The target reliability index of existing structure is calculated simultaneously, and decision structure RELIABILITY INDEX is at the time of being less than target reliability index
Failure, and then remaining life after pre- geodesic structure experience load step i；
Step 8: measurement structure deformation values update the rigidity of structure degenerate case of step 3；
Step 9: repeating step 5,6,7,8, the prediction result of remaining life is constantly updated, finally with each controlling sections
Remaining life of the service life most short value as total.
The above are preferred embodiments of the present invention, all any changes made according to the technical solution of the present invention, and generated function is made
When with range without departing from technical solution of the present invention, all belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of civil engineering structure reliability develops and method for predicting residual useful life, it is characterised in that: firstly, according to numerical value point
Analysis or mechanical knowledge judge the possible controlling sections of structure；Secondly, the statistical result by initial designs information assumes each parameter
Distribution is obeyed, and thus calculates the probability distribution that structure reactance and load are obeyed；Again, load is calculated, shrinks and creeps
Under the influence of stiffness degradation coefficient D (i)；Further, structure reactance distribution function is updated, drag probability point at this time is thus obtained
Cloth, and arrive to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；Then, reliability-time graph is established, is tied after pre- geodesic structure experience load step i
Structure remaining life；Finally, constantly updating predicting residual useful life as a result, and with the service life of each controlling sections in conjunction with real measured data
Remaining life of the most short value as total；The specific implementation steps are as follows for this method,
S1: the controlling sections that structure is likely to occur are analyzed and determined；
S2: according to the statistical result of initial designs information, it is assumed that the probability-distribution function of each structural parameters；
Structure reactance: being regarded as the function of each initial parameter by S3, establishes drag statistic, obtains the probability distribution density of drag
Function fR(r)；
S4: calculated rigidity attenuation coefficient D (i)；
A) external load that may be born by initial designs information and investigation situation pre- geodesic structure future, obtains external load-time
Curve；
B) rigidity of the structure under different load actions is calculated, in conjunction with rigidity-time graph a) obtained under the influence of load；
C) calculate deformation-time graph under structure both shrinks and Creep Effect using empirical equation, derive creep, shrink and
Load joint effect lower section rigidity-time graph；The rigidity of t moment is denoted as B (t)；
D) stiffness degradation for considering structure control section, is expressed as formula (1) for the rigidity of controlling sections
B (t)=B0·D(t) (1)
Wherein, B0For the rigidity of initial time controlling sections, B (t) is the rigidity that external load F (t) acts on moment controlling sections, D
It (t) is t moment controlling sections stiffness degradation coefficient, i.e. the ratio between t moment structure reactance and initial resistive force；
The stiffness degradation coefficient D (t) of i-th load action moment t is finally denoted as D (i)；
S5: consider to include structural parameters, the uncertain factor for measuring noise, regard measured data as stochastic variable, obtain outer
The probability distributing density function F of loadQ,i(r)；
S6: by fR(r)、FQ,i(r), D (i) substitutes into formula (2), obtains living through the probability updating that drag after i-th load is greater than r
For FR,n-times n(r):
Thus drag probability distribution at this time is obtained, and arrives to obtain reliability-load curve relationship；
S7: comprehensive to the estimation of the following external load and step S6's as a result, establishing structural reliability-time graph；It counts simultaneously
The target reliability index of existing structure is calculated, to fail at the time of decision structure RELIABILITY INDEX is less than target reliability index,
And then remaining life after pre- geodesic structure experience load step i；
S8: measurement structure deformation values update the rigidity of structure degenerate case of step S3；
S9: step S5, S6, S7, S8 are repeated, the prediction result of remaining life is constantly updated, finally with each controlling sections
Remaining life of the service life most short value as total.
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| CN107229806B (en) * | 2017-06-26 | 2019-11-12 | 福州大学 | A kind of historic building structure remaining life Predicting Reliability method suitable for corrosive environment |
| CN107403051B (en) * | 2017-08-01 | 2020-07-31 | 贺州学院 | Maintenance time determining method and device |
| CN107730127B (en) * | 2017-10-23 | 2021-09-24 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Relay storage degradation data prediction method based on output characteristic initial distribution |
| CN108956638A (en) * | 2018-04-27 | 2018-12-07 | 湖南文理学院 | A kind of evaluation detection system for civil engineering structure visual defects |
| CN110132511B (en) * | 2019-05-30 | 2020-10-27 | 山东省建筑科学研究院有限公司 | Bridge structure monitoring and evaluating method based on dynamic deflection attenuation law |
| CN111324924B (en) * | 2020-02-14 | 2022-07-01 | 中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司 | Existing pile supporting and retaining structure service state quantitative evaluation method based on reliability |
| CN115186515B (en) * | 2022-08-26 | 2023-07-04 | 中国长江三峡集团有限公司 | Concrete drainage pipeline residual life prediction method and device |
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