CN106355342A - Method for analyzing investment benefits of triple-generation systems on basis of interval Taylor model algorithms - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing investment benefits of triple-generation systems on the basis of interval Taylor model algorithms. The method particularly includes steps of 1), extracting basic data according to feasibility study reports related to triple-generation system engineering; 2), acquiring local electricity selling prices, heat supply prices, cold supply prices, annual equipment operation hours and fuel prices and estimating parameters of operation years, the fuel prices, electricity selling prices, operation costs and discount rates and approximate fluctuation ranges of each parameter; 3), setting an interval parameter for each parameter according to the obtained parameters and the obtained fluctuation ranges of the parameters, describing uncertainty of the parameters by the aid of interval algorithms and allowing all computation parameters to be 'interval-valued'; 4), deriving existing formulas to reduce the conservative properties of the formulas during computation and computing net present values and dynamic payout period indexes. The basic data are related to economic benefit analysis. The method has the advantages that the conservative properties of computation results can be reduced on the premise that computational complexity is not greatly increased, and accordingly computable and available conclusion can be drawn.

Description

Combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis based on interval Taylor Model algorithm

Technical field

The present invention relates to cold, heat and power triple supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis technical field, specifically one kind is based on The combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis of interval Taylor Model algorithm.

Background technology

Cold, heat and power triple supply system can significantly improve efficiency of energy utilization, and the row of pollutant also can be greatly decreased simultaneously Put.Cold, heat and power triple supply system is due to being located closer to load, thus also having minimizing fed distance, reducing transformation level, prolong Slow electric grid investment, the advantages of improve voltage.Cold, heat and power triple supply system because have cleaning, efficient the features such as, become complete in recent years The new trend of ball energy development and focus.

The probabilistic cold, heat and power triple supply system analysis of Investment Benefit of existing consideration is broadly divided into Monte Carlo simulation Method and interval algorithm two class.

The subject matter that Monte Carlo EGS4 method exists: if uncertain numerical value is many, " dimension calamity " can be brought, make amount of calculation Excessive, so that analysis becomes infeasible.

The subject matter that interval algorithm exists: due to relativity problem (dependency problem) and parcel effect The impact of (wrapping effect), after being calculated in a large number, the calculating knot that interval algorithm can be guarded very much sometimes Really.

Content of the invention

It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of combined supply system analysis of Investment Benefit based on interval Taylor Model algorithm Method, for solving, easily " dimension calamity " in existing cold, heat and power triple supply system analysis of Investment Benefit and result of calculation easily goes out The problem of existing conservative.

The present invention solves its technical problem and is adopted the technical scheme that: the trilogy supply system based on interval Taylor Model algorithm System Cost/Benefit Analysis, is characterized in that, specifically include following steps:

Step 1), according to the related feasibility study report of combined supply system engineering, extract Economic and Efficiency Analysis dependency basis Plinth data；Relevant rudimentary data includes initial outlay cost c_v, construction period t₀, generated output w, generating efficiency η, heat capacity, The substantially mobility scale of cooling ability, firing rate parameter and each parameter；

Step 2), obtain local sale of electricity electricity price, supply level Waste Heat Price, cooling price, equipment year hours of operation, fuel price； The substantially mobility scale of the predicted operation time limit, fuel price, sale of electricity electricity price, operating cost, discount rate parameter and each parameter；

Step 3), according to the parameter being acquired and its mobility scale, be each one interval parameter of parameter setting, adopt The uncertainty of interval algorithm characterising parameter, by all calculating parameters " intervalization "；

Step 4), existing formula is derived so as to conservative can be reduced when being calculated, and calculate net present value (NPV), dynamic State payoff period index.

Further, step 1) described in initial outlay cost include early-stage preparations expense, unit equipment expense and building Installation fee.

Further, step 3) described in calculating parameter " intervalization " particularly as follows:

It is assumed that step 1) and step 2) in the parameter reference value that obtains be x, its mobility scale lower limit is a times of initial value, on It is limited to b times of initial value, then this parameter can be represented with interval number [x*a, x*b], thus completing " intervalization " process of this data.

Further, step 4) in existing formula is derived, using Huo Na algorithm, formula (1)～(3) are carried out Deformation, its detailed process is:

Step 41), at present mainly with net present value (NPV) and dynamic investment return period for leading indicator to cold, heat and power triple supply system Project carries out financial evaluation, and main formulas for calculating is as follows:

Net present value (NPV):

In formula, n_pvFor project net present value (NPV), i_cFor project base earnings ratio, c_o,tConventional for cold, heat and power triple supply system t Expense total expenditure, r_i,tFor t total income；

c_o,t=c_fuel,t+c_om,t, c_fuel,tFor cold, heat and power triple supply system t fuel total cost；c_om,tFor system t Operation and maintenance cost；

H is equipment year hours of operation, p_fFor fuel price, η is generating efficiency, and δ is Fuel low heat valve, 3600 represent the mechanical equivalent of heat of electricity；

r_i,t=r_e,t+r_h,t+r_c,t, r_e,tFor t power selling income, r_h,tFor t heat supply income, r_c,tFor t cooling Income；

r_e,t=w × h × p_e, p_eFor sale of electricity electricity price；

Dynamic investment return period:

Wherein,

$a=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^t}\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1};---\left(3\right)$

$p_c=c_v{(1+i_c)}^{t_0};---\left(4\right)$

In formula, t_dFor project investment dynamic redemptive period；A is the net profit year in cold, heat and power triple supply system life cycle Equivalent；p_cInvestment at the beginning of putting into serial production for cold, heat and power triple supply system；

Step 42), formula (1) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}{n}_{pv}=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^{t+t_0}}-c_v\\ =f^{t_0}\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}{f}^t{x}_t-c_v\\ =f^{t_0}\[f(x_1+f(x_2+f\left(\mathrm{...}\left(x_{n-1}+{\mathrm{fx}}_n\right)\mathrm{...}\right)\left)\right)\]-c_v\end{array};---\left(5\right)$

In formula,x_t=r_i,t-c_o,t；

Step 43), formula (3) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}a=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^t}\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}\\ =\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{n-t}\frac{i_c}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}\end{array};---\left(6\right)$

Step 44), formula (2) is deformed:

In formula: f=(1+i_c), x_t=r_i,t-c_o,t.

The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: a kind of combined supply system based on interval Taylor Model algorithm that the present invention provides is thrown Money benefit analysis methods are devoted to reducing the conservative of result of calculation on the premise of not rolling up amount of calculation, thus drawing Finally, available conclusion.

1), a large amount of calculating are needed with respect to Monte Carlo EGS4 method, the present invention only need to once calculate just can be not true in consideration On the premise of qualitative factor, cold, heat and power triple supply system economic benefit is analyzed judging.

2), with respect to interval algorithm, when the present invention makes it calculate, conservative can be reduced, interval algorithm can be avoided " cross and estimate " characteristic, so that result of calculation can use, can use.

Brief description

Fig. 1 is the Cost/Benefit Analysis flow chart of the present invention.

Specific embodiment

As shown in figure 1, the combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis based on interval Taylor Model algorithm, specifically include with Lower step:

Step 1), according to the related feasibility study report of combined supply system engineering, extract Economic and Efficiency Analysis dependency basis Plinth data；Relevant rudimentary data includes initial outlay cost c_v, construction period t₀, generated output w, generating efficiency η, heat capacity, The substantially mobility scale of cooling ability, firing rate parameter and each parameter；

Step 2), investigation similar engineering, obtain local sale of electricity electricity price, supply level Waste Heat Price, cooling price, equipment year hours run Number, fuel price；The predicted operation time limit, fuel price, sale of electricity electricity price, operating cost, discount rate parameter and each parameter big Cause mobility scale；

Step 3), according to the parameter being acquired and its mobility scale, be each one interval parameter of parameter setting, adopt The uncertainty of interval algorithm characterising parameter, by all calculating parameters " intervalization "；

Step 4), existing formula is derived so as to conservative can be reduced when being calculated, and calculate net present value (NPV), dynamic State payoff period index.

Step 1) described in initial outlay cost include early-stage preparations expense, unit equipment expense and construction and installation expense.

Step 3) described in calculating parameter " intervalization " particularly as follows:

It is assumed that step 1) and step 2) in the parameter reference value that obtains be x, its mobility scale lower limit is a times of initial value, on It is limited to b times of initial value, then this parameter can be represented with interval number [x*a, x*b], thus completing " intervalization " process of this data.

Step 4) in existing formula is derived, using Huo Na algorithm, formula (1)～(3) are deformed, its tool Body process is:

Step 41), at present mainly with net present value (NPV) and dynamic investment return period for leading indicator to cold, heat and power triple supply system Project carries out financial evaluation, and main formulas for calculating is as follows:

Net present value (NPV):

In formula, n_pvFor project net present value (NPV), i_cFor project base earnings ratio, c_o,tConventional for cold, heat and power triple supply system t Expense total expenditure, r_i,tFor t total income；

c_o,t=c_fuel,t+c_om,t, c_fuel,tFor cold, heat and power triple supply system t fuel total cost；c_om,tFor system t Operation and maintenance cost；

H is equipment year hours of operation, p_fFor fuel price, η is generating efficiency, and δ is Fuel low heat valve, 3600 represent the mechanical equivalent of heat of electricity；

r_i,t=r_e,t+r_h,t+r_c,t, r_e,tFor t power selling income, r_h,tFor t heat supply income, r_c,tFor t cooling Income；

r_e,t=w × h × p_e, p_eFor sale of electricity electricity price；

Dynamic investment return period:

Wherein,

$a=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^t}\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1};---\left(3\right)$

$p_c=c_v{(1+i_c)}^{t_0};---\left(4\right)$

In formula, t_dFor project investment dynamic redemptive period；A is the net profit year in cold, heat and power triple supply system life cycle Equivalent；p_cInvestment at the beginning of putting into serial production for cold, heat and power triple supply system；

Step 42), formula (1) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}{n}_{pv}=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^{t+t_0}}-c_v\\ =f^{t_0}\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}{f}^t{x}_t-c_v\\ =f^{t_0}\[f(x_1+f(x_2+f\left(\mathrm{...}\left(x_{n-1}+{\mathrm{fx}}_n\right)\mathrm{...}\right)\left)\right)\]-c_v\end{array};---\left(5\right)$

In formula,x_t=r_i,t-c_o,t；

Step 43), formula (3) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}a=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^t}\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}\\ =\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{n-t}\frac{i_c}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}\end{array};---\left(6\right)$

Step 44), formula (2) is deformed:

In formula: f=(1+i_c), x_t=r_i,t-c_o,t.

Although the above-mentioned accompanying drawing that combines is described to the specific embodiment of the present invention, not model is protected to the present invention The restriction enclosed, on the basis of technical scheme, those skilled in the art do not need to pay creative work and can do The various modifications going out or deformation are still within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. the combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis based on interval Taylor Model algorithm, is characterized in that, specifically include following Step:

Step 1), according to the related feasibility study report of combined supply system engineering, extract Economic and Efficiency Analysis relevant rudimentary number According to；Relevant rudimentary data includes initial outlay cost c_v, construction period t₀, generated output w, generating efficiency η, heat capacity, cooling The substantially mobility scale of ability, firing rate parameter and each parameter；

Step 2), obtain local sale of electricity electricity price, supply level Waste Heat Price, cooling price, equipment year hours of operation, fuel price；Estimated Run the time limit, fuel price, sale of electricity electricity price, the substantially mobility scale of operating cost, discount rate parameter and each parameter；

Step 3), according to the parameter being acquired and its mobility scale, be each one interval parameter of parameter setting, using interval The uncertainty of arthmetic statement parameter, by all calculating parameters " intervalization "；

Step 4), existing formula is derived so as to conservative can be reduced when being calculated, and calculate net present value (NPV), dynamic return Receipts phase index.

2. the combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis based on interval Taylor Model algorithm according to claim 1, its Feature is, step 1) described in initial outlay cost include early-stage preparations expense, unit equipment expense and construction and installation expense.

3. the combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis based on interval Taylor Model algorithm according to claim 1, its Feature is, step 3) described in calculating parameter " intervalization " particularly as follows:

It is assumed that step 1) and step 2) in the parameter reference value that obtains be x, its mobility scale lower limit is a times of initial value, and the upper limit is B times of initial value, then this parameter can be with interval number [x*a, x*b] expression, thus completing " intervalization " process of this data.

4. the combined supply system Cost/Benefit Analysis based on interval Taylor Model algorithm according to claim 1, its Feature is, step 4) in existing formula is derived, using Huo Na algorithm, formula (1)～(3) are deformed, it is concrete Process is:

Step 41), at present mainly with net present value (NPV) and dynamic investment return period for leading indicator to cold, heat and power triple supply system project Carry out financial evaluation, main formulas for calculating is as follows:

Net present value (NPV):

In formula, n_pvFor project net present value (NPV), i_cFor project base earnings ratio, c_o,tFor cold, heat and power triple supply system t normal fees Total expenditure, r_i,tFor t total income；

c_o,t=c_fuel,t+c_om,t, c_fuel,tFor cold, heat and power triple supply system t fuel total cost；c_om,tRun for system t And maintenance cost；

H is equipment year hours of operation, p_fFor fuel price, η is generating efficiency, and δ is fuel Low heat valve, 3600 represent the mechanical equivalent of heat of electricity；

r_i,t=r_e,t+r_h,t+r_c,t, r_e,tFor t power selling income, r_h,tFor t heat supply income, r_c,tReceive for t cooling Enter；

r_e,t=w × h × p_e, p_eFor sale of electricity electricity price；

Dynamic investment return period:

Wherein,

$a=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^t}\frac{i_c{(1+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1};---\left(3\right)$

$p_c=c_v{(1+i_c)}^{t_0};---\left(4\right)$

In formula, t_dFor project investment dynamic redemptive period；A is that the net profit year in cold, heat and power triple supply system life cycle is equivalent； p_cInvestment at the beginning of putting into serial production for cold, heat and power triple supply system；

Step 42), formula (1) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}{n}_{pv}=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^{t+t_0}}-c_v\\ =f^{t_0}\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}{f}^t{x}_t-c_v\\ =f^{t_0}\[f(x_1+f(x_2+f\left(\mathrm{...}\left(x_{n-1}+{\mathrm{fx}}_n\right)\mathrm{...}\right)\left)\right)\]-c_v\end{array};---\left(5\right)$

In formula,x_t=r_i,t-c_o,t；

Step 43), formula (3) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}a=\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\frac{r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}}{{(1+i_c)}^t}\frac{i_c{(i+i_c)}^n}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}\\ =\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{n-t}\frac{i_c}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}\end{array};---\left(6\right)$

Step 44), formula (2) is deformed:

$\begin{array}{c}{t}_d=t_0+\frac{\lg a-\lg (a-p_c{i}_c)}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0+\frac{\lg \frac{a}{a-p_c{i}_c}}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0+\frac{\lg \frac{1}{1-p_c{i}_c/a}}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg (1-c_v{\left(1+i_c\right)}^{t_0}{i}_c/a)}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg \left(1-\frac{c_v{(1+i_c)}^{t_0}{i}_c}{\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}\[(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{n-t}\]\frac{i_c}{{(1+i_c)}^n-1}}\right)}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg \left(1-\frac{c_v{(1+i_c)}^{t_0}({\left(1+i_c\right)}^n-1)}{\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{n-t}}\right)}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg \left(1-\frac{c_v({\left(1+i_c\right)}^n-1)}{\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{(n-t-t_0)}}\right)}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg \left(1-\frac{c_v({\left(1+i_c\right)}^n-1){(1+i_c)}^{t_0}}{\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}(r_{i,t}-c_{o,t}){(1+i_c)}^{(n-t)}}\right)}{\lg (1+i_c)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg \left(1-\frac{c_v(f^n-1)f^{t_0}}{\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\σ}}{x}_t{f}^{(n-t)}}\right)}{\lg \left(f\right)}\\ =t_0-\frac{\lg \left(1-\frac{c_v(f^n-1)f^{t_0}}{x_n+f\left(x_{n-1}+f\left(x_{n-2}+f\left(\mathrm{...}\left(x_2+{\mathrm{fx}}_1\right)\mathrm{...}\right)\right)\right)}\right)}{\lg \left(f\right)}\end{array};$

In formula: f=(1+i_c), x_t=r_i,t-c_o,t.