CN106355306A - Economic business index analysis method and system based on regional power utilization characteristics - Google Patents

Abstract

An economic landscape index analysis method based on regional power utilization characteristics selects an economic index and a power utilization index for calculating the economic landscape index according to economic data and power utilization data of a region to be detected, then carries out a clustering method and a time difference correlation method on the economic index and the power utilization index to obtain a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index, and finally obtains the economic landscape index of the region to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method. Therefore, the regional economic interest index can be accurately detected according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the region to be detected, and the detection accuracy of the regional economic interest index is improved.

Description

Economic business index analysis method and system based on regional power utilization characteristics

Technical Field

The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power data detection, and particularly relates to an economic landscape index analysis method based on regional power utilization characteristics and an economic landscape index analysis system based on regional power utilization characteristics.

Background

The electrical industry is an important basic industry influencing the development of national economy, and plays an indispensable supporting role in the development of other various industrial departments: the production and supply of electric power provide the indispensable conditions for the development of economy, social progress and improvement of the living standard of people in China. Therefore, close relation exists between the electric power and the economy, and the trend of the economy can be researched and judged to a certain extent through analysis of electric power development characteristics.

However, how to detect the electricity utilization characteristics of the region is a problem to be solved in the power industry, and at present, there is no way to accurately detect the electricity utilization characteristics of the region, so that the economic prosperity index and the economic trend of the region cannot be judged through detecting the electricity utilization characteristics of the region.

Disclosure of Invention

Based on this, an object of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide an economic interest index analysis method and system based on regional power utilization characteristics, which can accurately determine regional economic interest indexes according to the regional power utilization characteristics.

To achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention provides:

an economic prosperity index analysis method based on regional power utilization characteristics comprises the following steps:

selecting a preliminary index of the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the area to be detected, wherein the preliminary index comprises the economic index and the power utilization index;

determining an economic scenery index system of the area to be detected by a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method, wherein the economic scenery index system comprises a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index;

and obtaining the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected.

An economic prosperity index analysis system based on regional power utilization characteristics, comprising:

the system comprises a preliminary index acquisition module, a power utilization module and a data processing module, wherein the preliminary index acquisition module is used for selecting a preliminary index of the economic landscape index of a to-be-detected area according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the to-be-detected area, and the preliminary index comprises an economic index and a power utilization index;

the index system acquisition module is used for determining an economic scene index system of the area to be detected by a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method, wherein the economic scene index system comprises a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index;

and the synthetic index operation module is used for acquiring the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected.

In the method and system for analyzing the economic business index based on the regional power utilization characteristics according to the embodiment of the invention, the economic index and the power utilization index for calculating the economic business index are selected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the region to be detected, then the economic index and the power utilization index are subjected to a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method to obtain a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index, and finally the economic business index of the region to be detected is obtained by adopting a synthetic index calculation method. Therefore, the regional economic interest index can be accurately judged and calculated according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the region to be detected, and the detection accuracy of the regional economic interest index is improved.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for analyzing economic prosperity index based on regional power utilization characteristics according to an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 2 is a graphical illustration of the composite index corresponding to the leading indicators set in one embodiment;

FIG. 3 is a graphical illustration of composite indices corresponding to a set of consensus indicators in one embodiment;

FIG. 4 is a graphical illustration of the composite index corresponding to a set of hysteresis metrics in one embodiment;

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of an economic interest index analysis system based on regional power usage characteristics according to some embodiments of the present invention.

Detailed Description

In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the scope of the invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.

A flow chart of an economic prosperity index analysis method based on regional power utilization characteristics according to an embodiment is shown in fig. 1.

The economic prosperity index analysis method based on the regional power utilization characteristics comprises the following steps:

s101, selecting a preliminary index of the economic landscape index of the area to be detected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the area to be detected, wherein the preliminary index comprises the economic index and the power utilization index;

the economic data and the electricity consumption data of the area to be detected can be read from a database in which relevant data are stored in advance, the connection between local computer equipment and a server where the database is located can be specifically established, the economic data and the electricity consumption data of the area codes in the database are inquired according to the area codes of the area to be detected and downloaded to the local computer equipment, and then the preliminary indexes of the economic landscape indexes of the area to be detected are selected according to a selection instruction of a user.

S102, determining an economic scenery index system of the area to be detected by a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method, wherein the economic scenery index system comprises a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index;

after obtaining the preliminary indexes of the economic landscape index of the area to be detected, the local computer equipment may analyze the economic index and the power consumption index in the preliminary indexes according to a pre-established cluster analysis model and a time difference correlation analysis model, and determine an economic landscape index system of the area to be detected, that is, the leading index, the consistent index and the lagging index, according to the preliminary indexes in combination with analysis results of the cluster analysis model and the time difference correlation analysis model.

S103, according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected, a synthetic index calculation method is adopted to obtain the economic landscape index of the area to be detected.

And the local computer equipment calculates according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected and a preset synthetic index operation method to obtain a corresponding economic landscape index.

The method comprises the steps of selecting an economic index and an electricity utilization index for calculating the economic landscape index according to economic data and electricity utilization data of an area to be detected, carrying out a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method on the economic index and the electricity utilization index to obtain a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index, and finally obtaining the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method. Therefore, the regional economic interest index can be accurately judged and calculated according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the region to be detected, and the detection accuracy of the regional economic interest index is improved.

In some embodiments, the step of selecting a preliminary index of the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected according to the economic data and the electricity consumption data of the area to be detected, S101, includes:

selecting 72 preliminary indexes from economic data and power utilization data of an area to be detected according to a preset scenic index screening rule;

and screening the preliminary indexes according to the economic characteristics and the statistical sufficiency of the area to be detected to obtain 37 preliminary indexes for calculating the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected.

And selecting 72 indexes based on the economic importance, statistical sufficiency, index harmony, index change representativeness, sensitivity to economic fluctuation, stability of index change rules and other principles of the landscape indexes in combination with the economic fluctuation characteristics of the area to be detected. The power consumption monitoring system comprises a power consumption monitoring system, a power consumption monitoring system and a power consumption monitoring system, wherein the power consumption monitoring system comprises 54 economic indexes (non-electricity utilization indexes), which cover nine major indexes of areas to be detected (including industrial, commercial, investment, traffic, financial, foreign trade, financial, labor and index), national and international indexes; the electricity utilization indexes are 18.

And screening out 37 indexes from 72 indexes according to the data collection condition, the data length and the like of the area to be detected, wherein the economic indexes (non-electricity utilization indexes) are 21, and the electricity utilization indexes are 16.

Through the selection of the indexes twice, the initial index most suitable for calculating the economic landscape index can be obtained, and the accuracy of detecting the regional economic landscape index is improved.

In some embodiments, after selecting the preliminary index of the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected according to the economic data and the electricity consumption data of the area to be detected, the method further comprises the following steps:

and carrying out data preprocessing on the 37 primary indexes for calculating the economic prosperity indexes of the area to be detected, wherein the data preprocessing comprises the following steps: index operation, missing value processing, index forward conversion and season adjustment.

By preprocessing the preliminary indexes, each index can reflect real data more accurately, and the accuracy of regional economic prosperity index detection is improved.

Step S102, determining an economic scenery index system of the area to be detected by a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method, wherein the economic scenery index system comprises a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index;

in some embodiments, the results of the cluster analysis and the time difference correlation analysis are integrated to determine an economic landscape index system of the area to be detected, which includes 16 indexes including 6 leading indexes, 5 consistent indexes and 5 lagging indexes.

In some embodiments, the economic landscape index system for the area to be detected is determined by:

determining a reference index as an industrial added value above the scale of the area to be detected;

dividing the primary selection indexes into three main categories by a system clustering method and a Gaussian mixture model clustering method;

dividing the primary selection index into a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index by a time difference correlation analysis method;

and (3) comprehensively analyzing the clustering analysis and time difference correlation analysis results to determine an economic landscape index system of the area to be detected, wherein the economic landscape index system comprises 6 leading indexes, 5 consistent indexes and 5 lagging indexes, and 16 indexes are used in total.

In some embodiments, the leading indicators include: national non-manufacturing business activity index, national currency supply amount, export amount of the area to be detected, supply land planning building area of the area to be detected, actual outsourcer direct investment amount of the area to be detected and volume reduction amount of the area to be detected.

In some embodiments, the compliance indicator comprises: the method comprises the following steps of collecting local public financial budget income of the area to be detected, the total fixed social asset investment completion amount of the area to be detected, the outage capacity of the area to be detected, the industrial added value of the area to be detected above the scale and the industrial power consumption of the area to be detected.

In some embodiments, the hysteresis index comprises: CPI of the area to be detected, residence price index of the area to be detected, residence investment income index of the area to be detected, sales capacity of the area to be detected and permanent electricity application capacity-increasing and loading-increasing capacity of the area to be detected.

Through comprehensive clustering analysis and time difference correlation analysis results, the 16 indexes of the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected can accurately reflect the economic landscape index of the area to be detected, and the accuracy of detecting the regional economic landscape index is improved.

Taking the Dongguan area as an example, when the area to be detected is the Dongguan area, the corresponding economic landscape index system is shown in the following table:

in one embodiment, in step S103, the step of obtaining the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by using a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected includes:

s1, calculating and standardizing the symmetrical change rate of each index in the economic landscape index system, specifically comprising:

the symmetrical rate of change of each index is calculated according to the following formula:

$C_{ij}\left(t\right)=200\×\frac{Y_{ij}\left(t\right)-Y_{ij}(t-1)}{Y_{ij}\left(t\right)+Y_{ij}(t-1)},t=2,3,...N$

wherein, C_ij(t) is the symmetrical rate of change, Y_ij(t) is the ith index of the jth index group, j is 1, 2, 3 respectively denote a leading index group, a matching index group, and a lagging index group, i is 1, 2 … … k_j，k_jThe number of indexes representing the j index group;

calculating the normalization factor A_ij：

$A_{ij}={\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=2}^N\frac{\left|C_{ij}\left(t\right)\right|}{(N-1)}$

Wherein A is_ijRepresenting the average of the ith index symmetric change rate time series of the jth index group, wherein N is the period number;

with A_ijC is to be_ij(t) normalization to obtain a normalized value S of symmetric rate of change_ij(t)：

$S_{ij}\left(t\right)=\frac{C_{ij}\left(t\right)}{A_{ij}}$

Wherein S is_ij(t) normalized values representing the t-phase symmetric rate of change of the i indices of the j-th index group;

s2, calculating the normalized average change rate of each index group, specifically including:

calculating average change rate R of index groups of leading, consistent and lagging_j(t)：

$R_j\left(t\right)=\frac{\left({\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{kj}{S}_{ij}\right(t)\×W_{ij})}{\left({\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{kj}{W}_{ij}\right)}$

Wherein, W_ijThe average change rate of the ith index in the jth group in the preceding index group at t time is R₁(t) the average rate of change of the coincidence indicator group in the period t is R₂(t) the average rate of change of the hysteresis index group in period t is R₃(t)；

According to the average rate of change R_j(t) calculating an index normalization factor:

$F_j=\frac{\[{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=2}^N\frac{\left|R_j\left(t\right)\right|}{(N-1)}\]}{\[{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=2}^N\frac{\left|R_2\left(t\right)\right|}{(N-1)}\]},j=1,2,3$

calculating a normalized mean rate of change V_j(t)：

$V_j\left(t\right)=\frac{R_j\left(t\right)}{F_j}$

Wherein V₁(t) the normalized mean change rate of the preceding index group in the t period, V₂(t) normalized mean Change Rate, V, of the index set for time t₃(t) represents the normalized average rate of change of the hysteresis index set at t, where t is 2, 3, … N, and N is the number of periods;

s3, calculating and obtaining a synthetic index, wherein the synthetic index comprises the following steps:

calculating an initial synthesis index:

$I_j\left(t\right)=I_j(t-1)\×\frac{(200+V_j(t\left)\right)}{(200-V_j(t\left)\right)},t=2,3...N$

wherein, I_j(t) initial synthesis index of j index set at coordinate t phase, and order I for each set_j(1)＝100；

Calculating to obtain a synthetic index CI_j(t)：

${\mathrm{CI}}_j\left(t\right)=\left(\frac{I_j\left(t\right)}{\stackrel{\‾}{I_{j0}}}\right)\×100\%$

Wherein,represents the calculated average of the basal period.

By adopting the synthetic index calculation method, the economic landscape index of the area to be detected can be accurately obtained by combining corresponding indexes in the leading index group, the consistent index group and the lagging index group in the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected, and the accuracy of detecting the regional economic landscape index is improved.

The composition index corresponding to the leading index group is shown in fig. 2, the composition index corresponding to the matching index group is shown in fig. 3, and the composition index corresponding to the lagging index group is shown in fig. 4. .

In some embodiments, when calculating the symmetrical rate of change of each index in the economic landscape index system, index Y is formed_ij(t) when zero or negative values are present, or when the index is a ratio sequence, taking the first difference:

C_ij(t)＝Y_ij(t)-Y_ij(t-1),t＝2,3…N

wherein, C_ij(t) represents the symmetric change rate of the ith index of the jth index group at the time of t, and N is the period number.

In some embodiments, the average rate of change R for each set of leading, consistent, and lagging indicators is calculated_j(t) if the weights are the same, calculating the average rate of change according to the following formula:

$R_j\left(t\right)=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{kj}{S}_{ij}\left(t\right)}{k_j}.$

by simplifying the operation, the operation speed of regional economic prosperity index detection can be greatly improved.

In some embodiments, the present invention further provides an economic interest index analyzing system based on regional power utilization characteristics, as shown in fig. 5, including:

the preliminary index acquisition module 10 is used for selecting a preliminary index of the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the area to be detected, wherein the preliminary index comprises the economic index and the power utilization index;

an index system obtaining module 20, configured to determine an economic prosperity index system of the area to be detected, including a leading index, a consistent index, and a lagging index, through a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method;

and the synthetic index operation module 30 is configured to obtain the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by using a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected.

The method comprises the steps of selecting an economic index and an electricity utilization index for calculating the economic landscape index according to economic data and electricity utilization data of an area to be detected, carrying out a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method on the economic index and the electricity utilization index to obtain a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index, and finally obtaining the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method. Therefore, the regional economic interest index can be accurately judged and calculated according to the electricity utilization characteristics of the region to be detected, and the detection accuracy of the regional economic interest index is improved.

The technical features of the embodiments described above may be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the embodiments described above are not described, but should be considered as being within the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.

The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. An economic prosperity index analysis method based on regional power utilization characteristics is characterized by comprising the following steps:

selecting a preliminary index of the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the area to be detected, wherein the preliminary index comprises the economic index and the power utilization index;

determining an economic scenery index system of the area to be detected by a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method, wherein the economic scenery index system comprises a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index;

and obtaining the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected.

2. The method for analyzing the economic landscape index based on the regional power utilization characteristics according to claim 1, wherein the step of selecting the preliminary index of the economic landscape index of the region to be detected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the region to be detected comprises:

selecting 72 preliminary indexes from economic data and power utilization data of an area to be detected according to a preset scenic index screening rule;

and screening the preliminary indexes according to the economic characteristics and the statistical sufficiency of the area to be detected to obtain 37 preliminary indexes for calculating the economic prosperity index of the area to be detected.

3. The method for analyzing the economic landscape index based on the regional power utilization characteristics according to claim 2, wherein after the preliminary index of the economic landscape index of the region to be detected is selected according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the region to be detected, the method further comprises the following steps:

and carrying out data preprocessing on the 37 primary indexes for calculating the economic prosperity indexes of the area to be detected, wherein the data preprocessing comprises the following steps: index operation, missing value processing, index forward conversion and season adjustment.

4. The method for analyzing the economic landscape index based on the regional power utilization characteristics according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the economic landscape index system of the region to be detected comprises 6 leading indexes, 5 consistent indexes and 5 lagging indexes.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the leading indicators include: national non-manufacturing business activity index, national currency supply amount, export amount of the area to be detected, supply land planning building area of the area to be detected, actual outsourcer direct investment amount of the area to be detected and volume reduction amount of the area to be detected.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein the consistency index comprises: the method comprises the following steps of collecting local public financial budget income of the area to be detected, the total fixed social asset investment completion amount of the area to be detected, the outage capacity of the area to be detected, the industrial added value of the area to be detected above the scale and the industrial power consumption of the area to be detected.

7. The method of claim 4, wherein the hysteresis index comprises: CPI of the area to be detected, residence price index of the area to be detected, residence investment income index of the area to be detected, sales capacity of the area to be detected and permanent electricity application capacity-increasing and loading-increasing capacity of the area to be detected.

8. The method for analyzing the economic landscape index based on the regional power utilization characteristics according to claim 4, wherein the step of obtaining the economic landscape index of the region to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the region to be detected comprises the following steps:

s1, calculating and standardizing the symmetrical change rate of each index in the economic landscape index system, specifically comprising:

the symmetrical rate of change of each index is calculated according to the following formula:

$C_{ij}\left(t\right)=200\×\frac{Y_{ij}\left(t\right)-Y_{ij}(t-1)}{Y_{ij}\left(t\right)+Y_{ij}(t-1)},t=2,3,...N$

wherein, C_ij(t) is the symmetrical rate of change, Y_ij(t) is the i-th index of the j index group, j is 1, 2, 3 respectively represent the leading index group, the matching index group and the lagging index group, i is 1, 2 … … k_j，k_jThe number of indexes representing the j index group;

calculating the normalization factor A_ij：

$A_{ij}={\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=2}^N\frac{\left|C_{ij}\left(t\right)\right|}{(N-1)}$

Wherein A is_ijRepresenting the average of the ith index symmetric change rate time series of the jth index group, wherein N is the period number;

with A_ijC is to be_ij(t) normalization to obtain a normalized value S of symmetric rate of change_ij(t)：

$S_{ij}\left(t\right)=\frac{C_{ij}\left(t\right)}{A_{ij}}$

Wherein S is_ij(t) normalized values representing the t-phase symmetric rate of change of the i indices of the j-th index group;

s2, calculating the normalized average change rate of each index group, specifically including:

calculating average change rate R of index groups of leading, consistent and lagging_j(t)：

$R_j\left(t\right)=\frac{\left({\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{kj}{S}_{ij}\right(t)\×W_{ij})}{\left({\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{kj}{W}_{ij}\right)}$

Wherein, W_ijThe average change rate of the ith index in the jth group in the preceding index group at t time is R₁(t) the average rate of change of the coincidence indicator group in the period t is R₂(t) the average rate of change of the hysteresis index group in period t is R₃(t)；

According to the average rate of change R_j(t) calculating an index normalization factor:

$F_j=\frac{\[{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=2}^N\frac{\left|R_j\left(t\right)\right|}{(N-1)}\]}{\[{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{t=2}^N\frac{\left|R_2\left(t\right)\right|}{(N-1)}\]},j=1,2,3$

calculating a normalized mean rate of change V_j(t)：

$V_j\left(t\right)=\frac{R_j\left(t\right)}{F_j}$

Wherein V₁(t) the normalized mean change rate of the preceding index group in the t period, V₂(t) normalized mean Change Rate, V, of the index set for time t₃(t) normalization of the hysteresis index group for t periodsAverage rate of change, t is 2, 3, … N, N is period number;

s3, calculating and obtaining a synthetic index, wherein the synthetic index comprises the following steps:

calculating an initial synthesis index:

$I_j\left(t\right)=I_j(t-1)\×\frac{(200+V_j(t\left)\right)}{(200-V_j(t\left)\right)},t=2,3...N$

wherein, I_j(t) initial synthesis index of j index set at coordinate t phase, and order I for each set_j(1)＝100；；

Calculating to obtain a synthetic index CI_j(t)：

${\mathrm{CI}}_j\left(t\right)=\left(\frac{I_j\left(t\right)}{\stackrel{\‾}{I_{j0}}}\right)\×100\%$

Wherein,represents the calculated average of the basal period.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the step of calculating the symmetrical rate of change of each index in the economic landscape index system further comprises:

when constituting the index Y_ij(t) when zero or negative values are present, or when the index is a ratio sequence, taking the first difference: c_ij(t)＝Y_ij(t)-Y_ij(t-1),t＝2,3…N

Wherein, C_ij(t) represents the symmetric change rate of the ith index of the jth index group at the moment of t, and N is the period number;

calculating the average change rate R of each index group of the first index, the consistent index and the lag index_jThe step of (t) further comprises:

if the weights are the same, calculating the average change rate according to the following formula:

$R_j\left(t\right)=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{kj}{S}_{ij}\left(t\right)}{k_j}.$

10. an economic prosperity index analysis system based on regional power utilization characteristics, comprising:

the system comprises a preliminary index acquisition module, a power utilization module and a data processing module, wherein the preliminary index acquisition module is used for selecting a preliminary index of the economic landscape index of a to-be-detected area according to the economic data and the power utilization data of the to-be-detected area, and the preliminary index comprises an economic index and a power utilization index;

the index system acquisition module is used for determining an economic scene index system of the area to be detected by a cluster analysis method and a time difference correlation analysis method, wherein the economic scene index system comprises a leading index, a consistent index and a lagging index;

and the synthetic index operation module is used for acquiring the economic landscape index of the area to be detected by adopting a synthetic index calculation method according to the economic landscape index system of the area to be detected.