CN106355278A - Load forecasting method and equipment - Google Patents
Load forecasting method and equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
An embodiment of the invention provides a load forecasting method and equipment. The method comprises steps as follows: a target zone is partitioned; the type of buildings and the area of each type of buildings in each subzone of the target zone are acquired; time-sharing load characteristics of each type of buildings are acquired, and a time-sharing load forecasting value of each subzone of the target area is determined according to the time-sharing load characteristics of each type of buildings, the type of buildings in each subzone and the area of each type of buildings; a time-sharing load forecasting value of the target zone is determined according to the time-sharing load forecasting value of each subzone. The load forecasting value is more accurate due to the fact that the time-sharing load forecasting value of the target zone and the actual energy consumption behavior in the target zone is more coincident.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to energy technology field, particularly to a kind of load forecasting method and equipment.
Background technology
When carrying out ENERGY PLANNING, need first the load of target area to be predicted, and then arrange and target area
The energy device that energy demand matches.
At present, the load forecasting method of target area is: determines that the load of the area of target area and unit area is pre-
Measured value, the two is multiplied and obtains the total load predictive value of target area.But, it was found by the inventors of the present invention that in prior art
The precision of above-mentioned load forecasting method is poor, and the predicted load of target area is inaccurate.
Content of the invention
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of load forecasting method and equipment, for providing a kind of precision higher load prediction
Method.
In a first aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of load forecasting method, comprising:
Subregion is carried out to target area；
Obtain the area of the type of building and every class building in each subregion of described target area；
Obtain the timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building, and the timesharing part throttle characteristics according to every class building, each subregion are built-in
The type built and the area of every class building, determine the timesharing predicted load of each subregion of described target area；
Determine the timesharing predicted load of described target area according to the timesharing predicted load of each subregion described.
Timesharing predicted load due to this target area is more agreed with actual energy resource consumption behavior in target area,
Predicted load is more accurate.
Optionally, the first subregion of described target area and the timesharing predicted load of the second subregion are different, and described first
Subregion is the first ratio with the area ratio of described second subregion；Timesharing predicted load in each subregion described in described basis
After determining the timesharing predicted load of described target area, also include:
Judge described target area timesharing predicted load whether meet pre-conditioned；
If the timesharing predicted load of described target area does not meet described pre-conditioned, to described first subregion and institute
The area ratio stating the second subregion is adjusted, until described area ratio is adjusted to the second ratio, is based on described second ratio
The timesharing predicted load of the described target area determining meets described pre-conditioned.Wherein, judge dividing of described target area
When predicted load whether meet pre-conditioned, including multiple implementations, for example, judge crest and the trough of described curve
Whether difference is not more than a threshold value with the ratio of crest, if crest is more than this threshold value with the difference of trough with the ratio of crest,
Determine described target area timesharing predicted load do not meet described pre-conditioned.
Optionally, the timesharing predicted load of described target area is represented by the curve of predicted load and time, institute
State that to judge whether the timesharing predicted load of described target area meets pre-conditioned, comprising:
Judge whether the crest of described curve and the difference of trough are not more than first threshold, if described difference is more than described the
One threshold value, then the timesharing predicted load of described target area do not meet described pre-conditioned.
Optionally, the timesharing predicted load of described target area is represented by the curve of predicted load and time, institute
State that to judge whether the timesharing predicted load of described target area meets pre-conditioned, comprising:
Judge whether the crest of described curve is not more than Second Threshold, if described crest is more than described Second Threshold, institute
State target area timesharing predicted load do not meet described pre-conditioned.
Optionally, the described timesharing predicted load judging described target area whether meet pre-conditioned, comprising:
Judge whether total load predictive value in preset time period for the described target area is not more than the 3rd threshold value, if described
Total load predictive value in preset time period is more than described 3rd threshold value, then the timesharing predicted load of described target area is not inconsistent
Close described pre-conditioned.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of load prediction equipment, comprising:
Zoning unit, for carrying out subregion to target area；
Determining unit, for obtain the type of building in each subregion of described target area, every class building area with
And the timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building, and in the timesharing part throttle characteristics according to every class building, each subregion building type with
And the area that often class is built, determine the timesharing predicted load of each subregion, and the timesharing load according to each subregion described
Predictive value determines the timesharing predicted load of described target area.
Optionally, the first subregion of described target area and the timesharing predicted load of the second subregion are different, and described first
Subregion is the first ratio with the area ratio of described second subregion；Described equipment also includes:
Judging unit, whether the timesharing predicted load for judging the described target area of described determining unit determination accords with
Close pre-conditioned；And when the timesharing predicted load of described target area does not meet described pre-conditioned, described point of instruction
Area's unit is adjusted to the area ratio of described first subregion and described second subregion, until described area ratio is adjusted to the
Two ratios, the timesharing predicted load of the described target area being determined based on described second ratio meet described pre-conditioned.
Optionally, the timesharing predicted load of described target area is represented by the curve of predicted load and time, institute
State judging unit specifically for:
Judge whether the crest of described curve and the difference of trough are not more than first threshold, if described difference is more than described the
One threshold value it is determined that the timesharing predicted load of described target area do not meet described pre-conditioned.
Optionally, the timesharing predicted load of described target area is represented by the curve of predicted load and time, institute
State judging unit specifically for:
Judge whether the crest of described curve is not more than Second Threshold, if described crest is more than described Second Threshold, really
The timesharing predicted load of fixed described target area does not meet described pre-conditioned.
Optionally, described judging unit specifically for:
Judge whether total load predictive value in preset time period for the described target area is not more than the 3rd threshold value, if described
Total load predictive value in preset time period is more than described 3rd threshold value it is determined that the timesharing predicted load of described target area
Do not meet described pre-conditioned.
The third aspect, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of load prediction equipment, including processor and memorizer, this storage
Device is used for store instruction, and this processor is used for executing the instruction in memorizer, to execute first party during execute instruction
The step of the various optional implementation of face or first aspect.
Fourth aspect, embodiments provides a kind of computer-readable medium, for storing computer program, this meter
Calculation machine program includes the instruction of the step of the various optional implementation for executing aforementioned first aspect or first aspect.
The embodiment of the present invention, on the basis of the realization that above-mentioned each side provide, can also be further combined to provide
More realizations.
Brief description
For the technical scheme being illustrated more clearly that in the embodiment of the present invention, will make to required in embodiment description below
Accompanying drawing briefly introduce it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description be only the embodiment of the present invention some embodiments,
For those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, can also be according to these accompanying drawings
Obtain other accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of load forecasting method in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the refinement schematic flow sheet further of load forecasting method in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of the curve of predicted load and time in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is the schematic block diagram of load prediction equipment in the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Below by accompanying drawing and specific embodiment, embodiment of the present invention technical scheme is described in detail it should be understood that
Specific features in the embodiment of the present invention and embodiment are the detailed description to embodiment of the present invention technical scheme, rather than
Restriction to embodiment of the present invention technical scheme, the technology in the case of not conflicting, in the embodiment of the present invention and embodiment
Feature can be mutually combined.
Fig. 1 show the schematic flow sheet of load forecasting method provided in an embodiment of the present invention, and the method includes walking as follows
Rapid:
Step 101: subregion is carried out to target area.
Specifically, target area refers to the targeted region of ENERGY PLANNING.Target area Bu Danzhi soil region, also wraps
Include the building built on soil region.Subregion is carried out to target area, can refer to corresponding for target area land divide is
Polylith it is also possible to refer to for all buildings in target area to be divided into multiple buildings (group), can also refer to by target area certain
One building is divided into multiple building areas.
Target area is carried out with subregion can multiple implementations, including but not limited in the following manner:
First, target area to be divided into the subregion with difference in functionality, for example, by target area be divided into shopping centre,
Residential quarter, hospital, factory.
Two, target area is divided into the subregion with different scales, for example, target area is divided into small building
Area, medium-sized buildings area and heavy construction area.
Three, target area is divided into the subregion with different energy consumptions, for example, target area is divided into low energy consumption
Area, middle energy consumption area and high energy consumption area.
Four, target area is divided into the subregion with different production value, for example, target area is divided into low yield
Value area, middle output value area and Peak output area.
Fifth, above-mentioned one is to its any two or combination of more in four, that is, according to Multiple factors to target area
Carry out subregion, for example, in conjunction with one and second, being divided into target area: megastore, mini-marts, large-scale residential quarter,
Small house area.
It should be noted that subregion can also be carried out to target area using the other modes in addition to aforesaid way, tool
Body is with reference to various region division modes of the prior art.
Step 102: obtain the area of the type of building and every class building in each subregion of target area.
Specifically, the building of one or more type can be comprised in each subregion.The type of so-called building, it is right to refer to
The difference of different function buildings, such as factory, market, office building, house etc. can be dissimilar as building.To target area
It may be determined that the concrete condition of each subregion after domain carries out subregion, i.e. the type of the building that each subregion is built and every kind of build
The construction area built.
Step 103: obtain the timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building, and the timesharing part throttle characteristics according to every class building, each
In subregion, the area of the type of building and every class building, determines the timesharing predicted load of each subregion.
Specifically, load refers to energy-output ratio, can have various ways, for example, power budget, Gas Load, cold
Gas load, heating installation load, etc..Timesharing load, refers to the load value in different time sections, such as 9 points to 10 points of electricity of the morning
Can load.
Each class building all has corresponding timesharing part throttle characteristics, and so-called timesharing part throttle characteristics is used for characterizing the list of such building
The timesharing load condition that plane amasss.Because different kinds of building function is different, lead to the timesharing part throttle characteristics of different kinds of building
It is typically different, for example, for office building, 2 pm is the work hours to 5 points, and the timesharing load of unit area is for one relatively
Big value, and 8 points to 10 points at night, because employee is generally next, the timesharing load of unit area is a smaller value；And for firmly
For residence, 2 pm goes out mostly to 5 points of resident families, and the timesharing load of unit area is a smaller value, and at night 8 points to 10
Point, user is generally in, and the timesharing load of unit area is a higher value.
The area of every class building in each subregion is multiplied by the timesharing part throttle characteristics of such building it may be determined that each subregion
The timesharing predicted load of interior each class building, then the timesharing predicted load of different kinds of building in this subregion is added up, that is,
The timesharing predicted load of this subregion can be obtained.
Wherein, the timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building can obtain after being simulated calculating according to mathematical algorithm, such as profit
The timesharing load condition built with the every class of software simulation, and then determine the timesharing part throttle characteristics of such building.
In addition, the timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building can also determine according to statistical data, for example, to multiple residential quarters
Timesharing load recorded, then the timesharing load data of the area according to each residential quarters and record determines house
The timesharing part throttle characteristics of class building.
It should be noted that the predicted load in the embodiment of the present invention can refer to any in above-mentioned various energy resources load
A kind of predictive value of Energy Load is it is also possible to include the predictive value of various energy resources load.
Step 104: determine the timesharing predicted load of target area according to the timesharing predicted load of each subregion.
Specifically, the timesharing predicted load of different subregions is superimposed, you can obtain the total timesharing load in target area pre-
Measured value.
Because, in practical situation, the load of the different subregions of target area is typically different, and same subregion is in difference
Load in time period is also typically different, will be simple for the load of per area per time in target area in prior art
It is set to certain value, be not inconsistent with actual energy resource consumption behavior in target area, the precision of load prediction is relatively low, energy forecast value
Inaccurate.In the embodiment of the present invention, target area is divided into multiple subregions, determines the timesharing load prediction of each subregion respectively
Value, then the predicted load superposition by each subregion, obtain the timesharing predicted load of whole target area, this target area
Timesharing predicted load is more agreed with actual energy resource consumption behavior in target area, and predicted load is more accurate.
As a kind of possible implementation, the subregion of target area includes the first subregion and the second subregion, and this
One subregion is different from the timesharing predicted load of the second subregion, and the area ratio of the first subregion and the second subregion is the first ratio
Value.With reference to Fig. 2, after step 104, also comprise the steps:
Step 105: judge whether the timesharing predicted load of target area meets pre-conditioned；
Step 106: if the timesharing predicted load of target area do not meet pre-conditioned, to the first subregion and the second subregion
Area ratio be adjusted, until area ratio be adjusted to the second ratio, based on second ratio determine target area point
When predicted load meet pre-conditioned.
Specifically, when carrying out ENERGY PLANNING, Prescribed Properties are set, determine the timesharing of target area in step 104
After predicted load, need whether the timesharing predicted load judging target area meets pre-conditioned (the i.e. pact of ENERGY PLANNING
Bundle condition).
Wherein, pre-conditioned inclusion multiple implementations, for example, the timesharing predicted load of target area need to be more flat
Surely, how to differ with the predicted load of time period can not be larger.Again for example, the total load predictive value of target area can not be more than total
The energy resource supply upper limit, but for example, the load value of target area any time can not be more than the peak value of energy resource supply.
When the timesharing predicted load of target area does not meet pre-conditioned, show the setting of each subregion in target area
The load leading to target area cannot meet plan constraint condition, needs to adjust the face between the internal loading different subregions of target area
Long-pending proportioning so that the timesharing predicted load of target area to meet this pre-conditioned.
For example, when the timesharing predicted load of target area fluctuates excessive in time, then can reduce in target area
The area of the larger subregion of timesharing predicted load (as factory), or, increase timesharing predicted load fluctuation in target area
The area of less subregion (as residential quarter).
Again for example, load value in first time period for the target area be more than allow threshold value when, then can reduce the
The area of the larger subregion of one time period internal loading, or, increase the area in the less subregion of first time period internal loading.
For example, determine the ratio of the crest of described curve and the difference of trough and crest, judge whether this difference is not more than
One threshold value, if the ratio of the difference of crest and trough and crest is more than this threshold value it is determined that the timesharing load of described target area
Predictive value does not meet described pre-conditioned.
Again for example, determine that the crest of curve reduces ratio with respect to the crest of the determined curve of last subregion, if reducing
Ratio be less than a threshold value it is determined that the timesharing predicted load of described target area do not meet described pre-conditioned.
After the area to zones of different in target area is adjusted, redefine the timesharing load value of target area,
Judge it is pre-conditioned whether the timesharing load value of target area meets, if still not meeting, weighs after Division area adjusts
Multiple above-mentioned steps, readjust the area of target area domain zones, until the timesharing load value of target area meet pre-conditioned.
In above-mentioned implementation, pre-conditioned by judging whether the timesharing predicted load of target area meets, inspection
To the subregion of target area whether suitably, and the timesharing predicted load in target area do not meet pre-conditioned, to target area
Domain zones area is adjusted so that the load in target area disclosure satisfy that plan constraint condition.
As a kind of possible implementation, the timesharing predicted load of target area passes through predicted load and time
Curve represents, step 105: judges whether the timesharing predicted load of target area meets pre-conditioned, including the side of being implemented as described below
Formula:
Whether the crest of judgment curves is not more than first threshold with the difference of trough, if this difference is more than first threshold,
The timesharing predicted load of target area does not meet pre-conditioned.
Fig. 3 is a kind of schematic diagram of possible implementation of curve of predicted load and time, and the crest of this curve refers to
It is the maximum of load, the trough of curve refers to the minima of load.Include multiple crests and/or multiple trough in this curve
When, the difference of above-mentioned crest and trough refer to any crest and any trough difference it is also possible to refer to maximum crest with minimum
The difference of trough is it is also possible to refer to two differences between crest and trough of arbitrary neighborhood.
This first threshold is to characterize the preset value of load fluctuation constraints, and first threshold is bigger, then show to meeting ripple
Dynamic property requires higher.When the difference of crest and trough is more than this first threshold, show the timesharing predicted load of target area
Do not meet pre-conditioned.
In above-mentioned possible implementation, determine the difference of the crest of curve with the time for the predicted load and trough, lead to
Cross this difference to characterize the undulatory property of predicted load, and when this difference is more than first threshold, determine that predicted load fluctuates
Larger, and then the area of different subregions in target area is adjusted, realize target area internal loading steadily, be easy to for mesh
Mark region setting energy device, and it is easy to improve efficiency and the life-span of energy device.
As a kind of possible implementation, the timesharing predicted load of target area passes through predicted load and time
Curve represents, step 105: judges whether the timesharing predicted load of target area meets pre-conditioned, including the side of being implemented as described below
Formula:
Whether the crest of judgment curves is not more than Second Threshold, if this crest is more than Second Threshold, target area point
When predicted load do not meet pre-conditioned.
Specifically, this Second Threshold can be preset value, such as the permissible load peak value of target area, predicted load with
When the crest of the curve of time is more than this Second Threshold, shows that the load value in this crest corresponding moment for the target area exceeds and permit
Permitted load peak, the timesharing predicted load of target area does not meet pre-conditioned.
This Second Threshold can also be for weighing the value of the effect that the Division area to target area is optimized.Might as well be located at
Before step 101, target area was carried out with a subzone, the referred to as first subzone, according to this first subzone, had determined
Go out the first time timesharing predicted load of target area, this first time timesharing predicted load passes through predicted load and time
First curve, the crest of this first curve is primary peak.Through judging, determine based on first point determined by this first subzone
When predicted load do not meet pre-conditioned, need to re-start subregion to target area.Then execution step 101, to target
Region carries out subregion again, the referred to as second subzone, and determines corresponding to the second subzone through step 102 and step 104
The second timesharing predicted load, the crest of this second timesharing predicted load is secondary peak.Then in step 105, this
Two threshold values can deduct setting difference for primary peak.When secondary peak is more than this Second Threshold, show through the second subzone,
The peak value of predicted load reduces less, and degree of optimization is not it is believed that the timesharing predicted load of target area is inconsistent
Close pre-conditioned, need the Division area of target area is repartitioned.
In above-mentioned possible implementation, determine the crest of predicted load and the curve of time, by this crest come table
Levy the maximum of predicted load, and when this peak value is more than Second Threshold, determine that the maximum of predicted load is bigger than normal, and then
The area of different subregions in target area is adjusted, it is not excessive to realize target area internal loading, is easy to for target area
Setting energy device.
As a kind of possible implementation, the timesharing predicted load of target area passes through predicted load and time
Curve represents, step 105: judges whether the timesharing predicted load of target area meets pre-conditioned, including the side of being implemented as described below
Formula:
Judge whether total load predictive value in preset time period for the target area is not more than the 3rd threshold value, if Preset Time
Section in total load predictive value be more than the 3rd threshold value, then the timesharing predicted load of target area meet pre-conditioned.
Specifically, preset time period can be random time section within one day or multiple time periods in one day
Set, whole day can also be referred to.3rd threshold value can be preset value, and such as target area is in the permission total load of preset time period
Value.Total load predictive value in this preset time period is more than the 3rd threshold value, shows that target area is negative in preset time period
Charge values are excessive, and the timesharing predicted load of target area does not meet pre-conditioned.
3rd threshold value can also be for weighing the value of the effect that the Division area to target area is optimized.Might as well be located at
Before step 101, target area was carried out with a subzone, the referred to as first subzone, according to this first subzone, had determined
Go out the first time timesharing predicted load of target area, determined in preset time period according to this first time timesharing predicted load
Total load predictive value is the first value.Through judging, determine based on the first timesharing predicted load determined by this first subzone not
Meet pre-conditioned, need to re-start subregion to target area.Then execution step 101, are divided again to target area
Area, the referred to as second subzone, and the second timesharing load corresponding to the second subzone is determined through step 102 and step 104
Predictive value, determines that based on this second timesharing predicted load the total load predictive value in preset time period is second value.Then in step
When rapid 105, the 3rd threshold value can deduct the second setting difference for the first value.When second value is more than three threshold values, show
Through the second subzone, the total load predictive value in preset time period reduces less, and degree of optimization is not it is believed that target area
The timesharing predicted load in domain does not meet pre-conditioned, needs the Division area of target area is repartitioned.
In above-mentioned possible implementation, determine total load predictive value in preset time period for the target area, and at this
When total load predictive value in preset time period is more than three threshold values, determine the total load predictive value mistake in this preset time period
Greatly, and then to the area of different subregions in target area it is adjusted, realize total load in preset time period for the target area
Not excessive.
It should be noted that in the embodiment of the present application, total load predictive value can be preset time period timesharing accumulation, also may be used
Calculated with the face domain being surrounded by load curve, may also be the value of the effect that the Division area to target area is optimized；
Can be absolute value, may also be relative value, such as total load reduces ratio, etc..
In addition, the implementation of step 105 can be the knot of two or more any in above-mentioned multiple possible implementations
Close, i.e. when only timesharing predicted load meets institute's Prescribed Properties, just meet pre-conditioned, in timesharing predicted load not
When meeting any one constraints, that is, determine that timesharing predicted load is unsatisfactory for pre-conditioned.
As a kind of possible implementation, after step 105, also include step 107: if the timesharing of target area is born
Lotus predictive value meets pre-conditioned, then determine the energy of target area domestic demand setting according to the timesharing predicted load of target area
Equipment.
Fig. 4 is the schematic diagram of load prediction equipment 200 provided in an embodiment of the present invention, comprising:
Zoning unit 201, for carrying out subregion to target area；
Determining unit 202, for obtain the type of building in each subregion of target area, the area of every class building and
The timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building, and in the timesharing part throttle characteristics according to every class building, each subregion the type of building and
The area of every class building, determines the timesharing predicted load of each subregion, and the timesharing predicted load according to each subregion
Determine the timesharing predicted load of target area.
Optionally, in the embodiment of the present invention, the first subregion of target area and the timesharing predicted load of the second subregion are not
With the area ratio of the first subregion and the second subregion is the first ratio；Equipment 200 also includes:
Judging unit 203, whether the timesharing predicted load for judging the target area of determining unit 202 determination meets
Pre-conditioned；And when the timesharing predicted load of target area does not meet pre-conditioned, instruction zoning unit 201 is to first
Subregion is adjusted with the area ratio of the second subregion, until area ratio is adjusted to the second ratio, is determined based on the second ratio
Target area timesharing predicted load meet pre-conditioned.
Optionally, in the embodiment of the present invention, the timesharing predicted load of target area passes through predicted load and time
Curve represents, judging unit 203 specifically for:
Whether the crest of judgment curves is not more than first threshold with the difference of trough, if difference is more than first threshold, really
Set the goal region timesharing predicted load do not meet pre-conditioned.
Optionally, in the embodiment of the present invention, the timesharing predicted load of target area passes through predicted load and time
Curve represents, judging unit 203 specifically for:
Whether the crest of judgment curves be not more than Second Threshold, if crest is more than Second Threshold it is determined that target area
Timesharing predicted load does not meet pre-conditioned.
Optionally, in the embodiment of the present invention, judging unit 203 specifically for:
Judge whether total load predictive value in preset time period for the target area is not more than the 3rd threshold value, if Preset Time
Section in total load predictive value be more than the 3rd threshold value it is determined that the timesharing predicted load of target area do not meet pre-conditioned.
Optionally, in the embodiment of the present invention, equipment 200 also includes:
Second determining unit 204, for when the timesharing predicted load of target area meets pre-conditioned, according to target
The timesharing predicted load in region determines the energy device of target area domestic demand setting.
The specific implementation of each module that above equipment 200 comprises is referred to each step of above load forecasting method
Implementation, the embodiment of the present invention repeats no more.
The embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of load prediction equipment, and including processor and memorizer, this memorizer is used for
Store instruction, this processor is used for executing instruction in memorizer, with execution abovementioned steps 101 during execute instruction to
Step 107, realizes load prediction.
The embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of computer-readable medium, for storing computer program, this computer journey
Sequence is included for executing abovementioned steps 101 to the instruction of step 107.
Those skilled in the art are it should be appreciated that the embodiment of the embodiment of the present invention can be provided as method, system or calculate
Machine program product.Therefore, the embodiment of the present invention can using complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or combine software and
The form of the embodiment of hardware aspect.And, the embodiment of the present invention can using one or more wherein include computer can
With in the computer-usable storage medium (including but not limited to disk memory, cd-rom, optical memory etc.) of program code
The form of the computer program implemented.
The embodiment of the present invention is with reference to method according to embodiments of the present invention, equipment (system) and computer program
Flow chart and/or block diagram describing.It should be understood that can be by computer program instructions flowchart and/or block diagram
Flow process in each flow process and/or square frame and flow chart and/or block diagram and/or the combination of square frame.These calculating can be provided
Machine programmed instruction is to the process of general purpose computer, special-purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing device
Device is to produce a machine so that producing by the instruction of computer or the computing device of other programmable data processing device
The function of specifying in one flow process of flow chart or multiple flow process and/or one square frame of block diagram or multiple square frame for realization
Device.
Obviously, those skilled in the art can carry out various changes and modification without deviating from this to the embodiment of the present invention
The spirit and scope of bright embodiment.So, if these modifications of the embodiment of the present invention and modification belong to embodiment of the present invention power
Within the scope of profit requirement and its equivalent technologies, then the embodiment of the present invention is also intended to comprise these changes and modification.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of load forecasting method is it is characterised in that include:
Subregion is carried out to target area；
Obtain the area of the type of building and every class building in each subregion of described target area；
Obtain the timesharing part throttle characteristics of every class building, and building in the timesharing part throttle characteristics according to every class building, each subregion
Type and the area of every class building, determine the timesharing predicted load of each subregion of described target area；
Determine the timesharing predicted load of described target area according to the timesharing predicted load of each subregion described.
2. method according to claim 1 it is characterised in that the first subregion of described target area and the second subregion point
When predicted load different, described first subregion is the first ratio with the area ratio of described second subregion；Described according to institute
State each subregion timesharing predicted load determine the timesharing predicted load of described target area after, also include:
Judge described target area timesharing predicted load whether meet pre-conditioned；
If the timesharing predicted load of described target area does not meet described pre-conditioned, to described first subregion and described the
The area ratio of two subregions is adjusted, until described area ratio is adjusted to the second ratio, is determined based on described second ratio
Described target area timesharing predicted load meet described pre-conditioned.
3. method according to claim 2 is it is characterised in that the timesharing predicted load of described target area passes through load
Predictive value is represented with the curve of time, and it is pre-conditioned whether the described timesharing predicted load judging described target area meets,
Including:
Judge whether the crest of described curve is not more than first threshold with the difference of trough, if described difference is more than described first threshold
Value, then the timesharing predicted load of described target area do not meet described pre-conditioned.
4. method according to claim 2 is it is characterised in that the timesharing predicted load of described target area passes through load
Predictive value is represented with the curve of time, and it is pre-conditioned whether the described timesharing predicted load judging described target area meets,
Including:
Judge whether the crest of described curve is not more than Second Threshold, if described crest is more than described Second Threshold, described mesh
The timesharing predicted load in mark region does not meet described pre-conditioned.
5. method according to claim 2 is it is characterised in that the timesharing predicted load of the described target area of described judgement
Whether meet pre-conditioned, comprising:
Judge whether total load predictive value in preset time period for the described target area is not more than the 3rd threshold value, if described default
Total load predictive value in time period is more than described 3rd threshold value, then the timesharing predicted load of described target area does not meet institute
State pre-conditioned.
6. a kind of load prediction equipment is it is characterised in that include:
Zoning unit, for carrying out subregion to target area；
Determining unit, for obtaining the type of building in each subregion of described target area, the area of every class building and every
The timesharing part throttle characteristics of class building, and the timesharing part throttle characteristics according to every class building, the type of building and every in each subregion
The area of class building, determines the timesharing predicted load of each subregion, and the timesharing load prediction according to each subregion described
Value determines the timesharing predicted load of described target area.
7. equipment according to claim 6 it is characterised in that the first subregion of described target area and the second subregion point
When predicted load different, described first subregion is the first ratio with the area ratio of described second subregion；Described equipment also wraps
Include:
Judging unit, it is pre- whether the timesharing predicted load for judging the described target area of described determining unit determination meets
If condition；And when the timesharing predicted load of described target area does not meet described pre-conditioned, indicate described subregion list
Unit is adjusted to the area ratio of described first subregion and described second subregion, until described area ratio is adjusted to the second ratio
Value, the timesharing predicted load of the described target area being determined based on described second ratio meet described pre-conditioned.
8. equipment according to claim 7 is it is characterised in that the timesharing predicted load of described target area passes through load
Predictive value is represented with the curve of time, described judging unit specifically for:
Judge whether the crest of described curve is not more than first threshold with the difference of trough, if described difference is more than described first threshold
Value it is determined that the timesharing predicted load of described target area do not meet described pre-conditioned.
9. equipment according to claim 7 is it is characterised in that the timesharing predicted load of described target area passes through load
Predictive value is represented with the curve of time, described judging unit specifically for:
Judge that whether the crest of described curve is not more than Second Threshold, if described crest is more than described Second Threshold it is determined that institute
State target area timesharing predicted load do not meet described pre-conditioned.
10. equipment according to claim 7 it is characterised in that described judging unit specifically for:
Judge whether total load predictive value in preset time period for the described target area is not more than the 3rd threshold value, if described default
Total load predictive value in time period is more than described 3rd threshold value it is determined that the timesharing predicted load of described target area is not inconsistent
Close described pre-conditioned.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201610765219.XA CN106355278A (en) | 2016-08-30 | 2016-08-30 | Load forecasting method and equipment |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201610765219.XA CN106355278A (en) | 2016-08-30 | 2016-08-30 | Load forecasting method and equipment |
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| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN106355278A true CN106355278A (en) | 2017-01-25 |
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ID=57856657
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|---|---|---|---|
| CN201610765219.XA Pending CN106355278A (en) | 2016-08-30 | 2016-08-30 | Load forecasting method and equipment |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107730027A (en) * | 2017-09-13 | 2018-02-23 | 深圳供电规划设计院有限公司 | A kind of load forecasting method and device based on region building property |
| CN109373438A (en) * | 2018-09-11 | 2019-02-22 | 太原理工大学 | Heating energy-saving control method and system based on transfer learning algorithm |
| CN112926777A (en) * | 2021-02-25 | 2021-06-08 | 山东大学 | Day-ahead load prediction method and system considering commercial building energy consumption behaviors |
-
2016
- 2016-08-30 CN CN201610765219.XA patent/CN106355278A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107730027A (en) * | 2017-09-13 | 2018-02-23 | 深圳供电规划设计院有限公司 | A kind of load forecasting method and device based on region building property |
| CN109373438A (en) * | 2018-09-11 | 2019-02-22 | 太原理工大学 | Heating energy-saving control method and system based on transfer learning algorithm |
| CN112926777A (en) * | 2021-02-25 | 2021-06-08 | 山东大学 | Day-ahead load prediction method and system considering commercial building energy consumption behaviors |
| CN112926777B (en) * | 2021-02-25 | 2023-03-10 | 山东大学 | Day-ahead load prediction method and system considering commercial building energy consumption behaviors |
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Address after: 065001 Langfang District, Hebei economic and Technological Development Zone, Hua Xiang Road, Xinyuan Road, new Austrian Science and Technology Park, South Block B Applicant after: New Austrian Universal Network Technology Co., Ltd. Address before: 065001 Langfang District, Hebei economic and Technological Development Zone, Hua Xiang Road, Xinyuan Road, new Austrian Science and Technology Park, South Block B Applicant before: Polytron Technologies Inc |
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