CN106296018B - The method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction - Google Patents
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- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 35
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction and evaluation of trap methods, are divided into successfully and fail two types for trap；The initial exploitation of the corresponding sub- factor corresponds to the contamination factor of the sub- factor before being bored according to different traps, then calculates the weight coefficient of the corresponding sub- factor；The initial exploitation of corresponding father's factor corresponds to the contamination factor of father's factor before being bored according to different traps, then calculates the weight coefficient of corresponding father's factor；Finally establish geologic risk evaluation model.It is able to ascend the accuracy of geologic risk evaluation model by correcting, effectively solves the problems, such as that weight coefficient judges that qualitative value causes the reliability of the adjustment model poor by subjective experience.In addition, carrying out evaluation of trap according to the model after correction, can generate on the evaluation result of trap energetically influences, and ensure that the accuracy of exploitation, and then improve the accuracy of exploration, reduces the probability for occurring judging by accident.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction and evaluation of trap methods.
Background technique
Most of on exploration targets geologic risk evaluation both at home and abroad at present is all to quantify assignment for different geologic(al) factors
It carries out overall merit in conjunction with corresponding geologic risk evaluation model later to be preferably lined up, therefore the research pair of geologic risk model
It is to carry out decision in the face of risk, structure at the beginning of there is evaluation result vital influence, geologic risk model theory to propose
Building frame mainly includes geological conditions (father's factor) and its weight coefficient, geologic elements (the sub- factor) and its weight coefficient, evaluation
Parameter three parts.It requires to carry out across comparison for different exploration targets, risk queuing is carried out on uniform template, preferentially
Select low-risk target deployment work, then in practical application find son, father's factor selection and evaluation parameter all
There is effective technical method to be studied, is speculated only using qualitative mode always in weight coefficient, do not found
A set of practicable Quantitative Calculation Method.From the point of view of actual operation flow chart, weight coefficient participates in operation twice, size pair
It is affected in evaluation result, and should all there be the key risk of its own in different exploratory area, different oil fields, different type target
The factor, such key risk factor should also be as having higher weight (i.e. weight coefficient), and how objective reality uses numerical tabular
Become the critical issue of geologic risk evaluation conclusion reliability up to this concept.Also, it only simply uses in the prior art
Qualitative mode establishes geologic risk evaluation model, and there is differences largely for the parameter and actual parameter in the model
It is different, so, the model accuracy is not high, then easily causing mistake to comment trap if carrying out evaluation of trap using the model
Valence result.
Summary of the invention
It is existing to solve the object of the present invention is to provide a kind of method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction
The not high problem of geologic risk evaluation model accuracy.Present invention simultaneously provides a kind of evaluation of trap methods.
To achieve the above object, the solution of the present invention includes: a kind of method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction,
The following steps are included:
(1) type of each trap and the initial value of corresponding secondary parameter are obtained, wherein the type of each trap
Acquisition specifically: based on different regions, different type trap gone up probing well oil test data, by trap be divided into successfully with
Failure two types；
(2) for each secondary parameter, it is referred to as the sub- factor, secondary parameter is divided into several groups, every group of correspondence one
A main parameter is referred to as father's factor for each main parameter；The corresponding sub- factor is first before being bored according to different traps
Beginning value obtains the pollution upper bound for corresponding to the sub- factor and pollution lower bound, and then obtains pollution bandwidth and whole value bandwidth, calculates
The pollution bandwidth is divided by the whole value bandwidth, and obtained quotient is the contamination factor of the corresponding sub- factor, then according to right
Answer the contamination factor of the sub- factor, and the principle for being one based on the sum of all sub- factor weight coefficients for belonging to father's factor
Calculate the weight coefficient of the corresponding sub- factor；
(3) for any one trap, seek the initial values of all sub- factors for belonging to father's factor with it is right
The product for the weight coefficient answered obtains corresponding product value, then seeks the sum of these product values, and obtain and value is exactly to correspond to
The initial value of father's factor；
(4) for any one father's factor, the pollution upper bound of corresponding father's factor is obtained according to the initial value of father's factor
With pollution lower bound, and then pollution bandwidth and whole value bandwidth are obtained, calculates pollution bandwidth divided by whole value bandwidth, obtain
Quotient is the contamination factor of corresponding father's factor, then according to the contamination factor of corresponding father's factor, and based on all father's factors
The principle that the sum of weight coefficient is one calculates the weight coefficient of corresponding father's factor；
(5) the geologic risk evaluation model of correction is established according to the weight coefficient of the weight coefficient of the sub- factor and father's factor.
Relationship between the type of each trap and the initial value of corresponding secondary parameter is by corresponding to the pollution of the sub- factor
Coefficient plate indicates, in the contamination factor plate of the sub- factor, using the initial value of the sub- factor of the correspondence of each trap as the longitudinal axis, with
Trap serial number horizontal axis, and be series with trap success or not.
Relationship between the type of each trap and the initial value of corresponding father's factor is by corresponding to the pollution system of father's factor
Number plate indicates, in the contamination factor plate of father's factor, using the initial value of correspondence father's factor of each trap as the longitudinal axis, with circle
Serial number horizontal axis is closed, and is series with trap success or not.
The calculation method of the weight coefficient of the sub- factor are as follows: the corresponding sub- factor is calculated according to the contamination factor of the sub- factor first
Cleanliness, cleanliness are equal to 1 and subtract corresponding contamination factor；Then the cleanliness for belonging to all sub- factors in same father's factor is calculated
Sum, then, the weight coefficient of a certain sub- factor under father's factor is equal to the corresponding cleanliness of the sub- factor divided by described
The sum of cleanliness.
The calculation method of the weight coefficient of father's factor are as follows: corresponding father's factor is calculated according to the contamination factor of father's factor first
Cleanliness, cleanliness are equal to 1 and subtract corresponding contamination factor；Then the sum of the cleanliness of all father's factors is calculated, then, some father
The weight coefficient of the factor is equal to the corresponding cleanliness of father's factor divided by the sum of the cleanliness.
The sub- factor includes direct depth of cover, cap rock lithology, tectonically active basins, Lateral plugging condition, hydrocarbon source rock
Thickness, organic matter type, hydrocarbon source conditions, circle source distance, trap position, migration pathway, the time is mating, space is mating, circle
Close area, trap amplitude, Trap Typesof, trap buried depth, seismic profile quality, earthquake controlling extent, Drilling Control degree, reservoir
Lithology, reservoir thickness, reservoir porosity, reservoir sedimentation phase and TRAP RESERVE；Father's factor includes preservation condition, filling item
Part, trap condition, reservoir conditions and strategic value；The direct depth of cover, cap rock lithology, tectonically active basins and lateral envelope
Stifled condition belongs to preservation condition, the hydrocarbon source rock thickness, organic matter type, hydrocarbon source conditions, circle source distance, trap position,
Migration pathway, time are mating and space is mating belongs to filling condition；The trap area, trap amplitude, Trap Typesof, trap are buried
Depth, seismic profile quality, earthquake controlling extent and Drilling Control degree belong to trap condition, the reservoir lithology, reservoir thickness,
Reservoir porosity mutually belongs to reservoir conditions with reservoir sedimentation, and the TRAP RESERVE belongs to strategic value.
Method for building up provided by the invention be used for geologic risk evaluation model is established, first by trap be divided into successfully with
Failure two types；Then the contamination factor of all sub- factors is calculated；And then the corresponding sub- factor is calculated according to contamination factor
Weight coefficient；Followed by, the contamination factor of corresponding father's factor is calculated, and calculates the weight coefficient of corresponding father's factor；Finally,
Evaluation model is established according to the weight coefficient of the sub- factor and father's factor.The method for building up using initial known parameters and after
The continuous parameter sought establishes geologic risk evaluation model, and obtained geologic risk evaluation model accuracy obtains biggish mention
It rises, also, the weight coefficient of the sub- factor therein and father's factor is got by calculating, is specific numerical value, effectively solves
Certainly weight coefficient judges that qualitative value leads to the problem of the reliability of the adjustment model difference by subjective experience.
Moreover, the geologic risk model can scientific, reasonable, the objective ecological evaluation system of Instructing manufacture, be based on simultaneously
The model research of mass data can produce service platform for petroleum system intelligence and provide technical support, be commercialized promotion price
It is worth higher.
The present invention also provides a kind of evaluation of trap methods, comprising the following steps:
(1) weight coefficient of the sub- factor is corresponded to according to the initial exploitation of the sub- factor；
(2) the weight system of corresponding father's factor is calculated according to the weight coefficient for all sub- factors for belonging to father's factor
Number；
(3) corrected value that trap is corresponded in geologic risk evaluation model is calculated according to the weight coefficient of all father's factors；
(4) for any one trap, if the corrected value of the trap is greater than a setting in geologic risk evaluation model
When threshold value, determines and exploit the trap；Otherwise, it determines not exploiting the trap.
The calculation method of the corrected value of the trap are as follows: for any one trap, it is corresponding all to seek the trap
The initial value of father's factor and the product of corresponding weight coefficient, obtain corresponding product value, then seek these product values it
With, obtain and value be exactly the trap in the geologic risk evaluation model corrected value.
Evaluation of trap is carried out according to obtained evaluation model, can generate on the evaluation result of trap energetically influences, and
Determine whether trap needs to exploit according to the evaluation result being calculated, what is met the requirements exploit, and is unsatisfactory for requirement
Without exploitation, avoid cause to waste time because accidentally adopting the not trap of oil gas, fund and the problem of manpower, ensure that out
The accuracy adopted, and then the accuracy of exploration is improved, reduce the probability for occurring judging by accident.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is geologic risk model integral frame structure schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 is geologic risk evaluation result schematic diagram of calculation flow；
Fig. 3 is the particular technique block schematic illustration of the method for building up of the geologic risk model of correction；
Fig. 4 is direct depth of cover contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 is direct capping contact scar coefficient plate schematic diagram；
Fig. 6 is tectonically active basins contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Fig. 7 is Lateral plugging condition contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Fig. 8 is hydrocarbon source rock thickness contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Fig. 9 is organic matter type contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 10 is hydrocarbon source conditions contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 11 is circle source apart from contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 12 is trap position contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 13 is migration pathway contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 14 is time mating contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 15 is the mating contamination factor plate schematic diagram in space；
Figure 16 is trap area contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 17 is trap amplitude contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 18 is Trap Typesof contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 19 is trap buried depth contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 20 is seismic data quality contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 21 is earthquake controlling extent contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 22 is Drilling Control degree contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 23 is reservoir lithology contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 24 is reservoir thickness contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 25 is reservoir porosity contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 26 is reservoir sedimentation phase contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 27 is TRAP RESERVE contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 28 is preservation condition contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 29 is filling condition contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 30 is trap condition contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 31 is reservoir conditions contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 32 is strategic value condition contamination factor plate schematic diagram；
Figure 33 is pollution plate schematic diagram of 2012 editions geologic risk models before correction；
Figure 34 is 2015 editions geologic risk models, i.e., to the pollution plate schematic diagram after 2012 editions corrections.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawing.
The method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction of the invention focuses on: seeking the power of each sub- factor
The weight coefficient of value coefficient and each father's factor, then builds according to the weight coefficient of the weight coefficient of the sub- factor and father's factor
The geologic risk evaluation model of vertical correction, achievement are mainly used for improving the reliable of exploration targets geologic risk evaluation conclusion
Property, as illustrated in fig. 1 and 2.
As shown in figure 3, the particular technique Framework of the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of the correction is as follows:
The first step is based on different regions, and the oil test data of probing well has been gone up in different type trap, according to commercial hydrocarbon flow mark
Brigadier's trap is divided into successfully and fails two types；
For each trap, there is very multiple and different initial parameters (also referred to as initial parameter), these parameters or
The exploration of oil gas is more or less influenced, so these initial parameters are known as initial contamination factor.These initial contamination factors
In, some pollution factors belong to a kind of more upper pollution factor, such as: direct depth of cover, cap rock lithology, construction are lived
Fatigue resistance and Lateral plugging condition this four pollution factors belong to this pollution factor of preservation condition, so, by this four dirts
Dye factor is known as the sub- factor, and preservation condition is known as father's factor, then father's factor belongs to main parameter, and the sub- factor belongs to secondary ginseng
Number.Wherein, for the initial value of secondary parameter, i.e., it is according to existing correlation that the initial value of each sub- factor, which is known,
What data obtained, this partly belongs to the prior art, no longer illustrates here.
Weight is sought or the core of model foundation is the foundation of contamination factor plate, is between probing conclusion and weight height
The tie of correlation analysis, weight values show be degree of purity calculating, be the mathematics process for further quantifying correlation, because
This pollutes plate drafting in Technical Design and degree of purity calculating is most important.
Pollution plate draws scheme: being found by practical study, the high sub- factor of weight is often for geologic risk model
Be affected, and then be affected to petroleum-gas prediction, that is, correlation is higher, the low sub- factor correlativity of weight compared with
It is low, since having been jumped through hoops then passing through for reversed then the height of weight can determine and can drill between conclusion effectively related
The correlation analysis of the probing conclusion and initial value closed can carry out weight computing, this is contamination factor plate
Mentality of designing.Pollution plate mainly includes trap serial number, initial value and has gone up brill trap drilling prospect conclusion (success or failure),
Wherein horizontal axis with trap serial number coordinate points, incorporated into two class of trap success or not being divided into optimization for industry and made by all traps
For the series of coordinate system, the longitudinal axis is using the corresponding initial value of trap as coordinate points, minimum value 0, maximum value 1, projects institute
After a little, the foundation of pollution plate is just completed.Each sub- factor of each trap has corresponding initial value, these
Initial value is known numeric value.I.e. for any one seed factor, each trap has an initial value, then, how many
The initial value of trap sub- factor with regard to how many, these initial values are combined, and as the longitudinal axis (between 0-1),
With trap serial number horizontal axis (1.2 ... positive integer), using trap success or not as the series of coordinate system, just establish this it is sub- because
The contamination factor plate of son.So the initial value of the same seed factor of different traps is depicted in a sub- factor plate
In, for the sub- factor plate, wherein including the initial value of the sub- factor of all traps.So passing through above-mentioned side
Method can obtain many sub- factor plates, and the sum of sub- factor plate with sub because the sum of subcategory is identical.
For the contamination factor plate of the wherein any one sub- factor, due to wherein containing the same seed of whole traps
The initial value of the factor, so, maximum value and minimum value therein are capable of determining that according to these initial values, maximum value and most
Small value is formed by numberical range and is known as total value range or whole value range.In total value range, if there is certain
Include simultaneously in the corresponding trap of the numerical value of one value range successfully and unsuccessfully trap, then the value range is known as contaminated zone,
Then remaining value range in total value range is referred to as pure band, so, the sum of contaminated zone and pure band are exactly total value
Range.The ratio between the bandwidth of the bandwidth in contaminated zone and total value range is exactly contamination factor, the bandwidth of pure band and total value range
The ratio between bandwidth become degree of purity (also referred to as cleanliness), the sum of contamination factor and degree of purity are 1.So there are two types of meters for degree of purity
Calculation method, one is the ratio between the bandwidth of the bandwidth and total value range that calculate pure band, another kind is 1 to subtract contamination factor.It is pure
The cleanliness the big, and intuitively to show the corresponding sub- factor high for trap success or not disturbance degree, therefore weight is larger.
Second step calculates the weight coefficient of the sub- factor belonged under same father's factor according to cleanliness.Same father will be belonged to
The cleanliness of all sub- factors under the factor is added, and obtains a total cleanliness value, then, for some under same father's factor
For the sub- factor, weight coefficient is equal to the ratio between corresponding cleanliness and total cleanliness value.So belonging to each son under same father's factor
The sum of weight coefficient of the factor is one.It in turn, is one according to the sum of weight coefficient of each sub- factor belonged under same father's factor
Principle, calculation can be normalized and implement the weight coefficient of each sub- factor that each father's factor is included.
Third step not only has the sub- factor, also has father's factor for some trap, then, under the trap
Any one sub- factor for belonging to same father's factor, calculates the initial value of the sub- factor and multiplying for corresponding weight coefficient
Product, obtains a product value, is then added the corresponding product value of all sub- factors for belonging to father's factor, obtained sum
Value is exactly the initial value of father's factor；And then the initial value of other father's factors of the trap is obtained by the above method, and
The initial value of all father's factors under different traps.For any one father's factor, the number of obtained initial value with
The number of trap is identical, so, the pollution plate of father's factor can be established according to these initial values, and then obtain all
The pollution plate of father's factor.So the principle phase of the drafting of the above-mentioned sub- factor contamination plate of drafting meeting of father's factor contamination plate
Together and the longitudinal axis is using the initial value of different traps as coordinate points, minimum value 0, maximum value 1, and horizontal axis is trap serial number, throws
After shadow all the points, the foundation of pollution plate is just completed.I.e. for any one father's factor of different traps, at the beginning of all
Beginning value is the longitudinal axis (between 0-1), with trap serial number horizontal axis (1.2 ... positive integer), using trap success or not as coordinate
The series of system, establishes the contamination factor plate of corresponding father's factor, and is analyzed.So by the same father of different traps because
The initial value of son is depicted in father's factor plate, and then can obtain many father's factor plates, also, father's factor graph
The sum of version is identical as the sum of the type of father's factor.
For the contamination factor plate of wherein any one father's factor, due to wherein containing the same father of whole traps
The initial value of the factor, so, be capable of determining that maximum value and minimum value in numerical value according to these initial values, maximum value and
Minimum value is formed by numberical range and is known as total value range or whole value range.In total value range, if there is
In the corresponding trap of the numerical value of a certain value range simultaneously include successfully and failure trap, then the value range referred to as pollution
Band, then remaining value range in total value range is referred to as pure band, so, the sum of contaminated zone and pure band are exactly always to take
It is worth range.The ratio between the bandwidth of the bandwidth in contaminated zone and total value range is exactly contamination factor, the bandwidth of pure band and total value model
The ratio between bandwidth enclosed becomes degree of purity (also referred to as cleanliness), so, the sum of contamination factor and degree of purity are 1.So degree of purity has
Two kinds of calculation methods, one is the ratio between the bandwidth of the bandwidth and total value range that calculate pure band, another kind is 1 to subtract pollution system
Number.The degree of purity the big, and intuitively to show corresponding father's factor high for trap success or not disturbance degree, therefore weight is larger.
4th step calculates the weight coefficient of corresponding father's factor according to cleanliness.The cleanliness of all father's factors is added, is obtained
To a total cleanliness value, then, the weight coefficient of some father's factor is equal to the ratio between corresponding cleanliness and total cleanliness value.
The last foundation that evaluation model is carried out according to the weight coefficient of the obtained sub- factor and the weight coefficient of father's factor.
The above-mentioned establishment process that geologic risk evaluation model is described in detail.
In turn, all traps can be evaluated according to obtained geologic risk evaluation model, to evaluate each circle
It closes and whether exploits.Specifically: the weight coefficient of the weight coefficient and father's factor that obtain the sub- factor by above-mentioned method for building up calculates
The corrected value of each trap is obtained, is then compared the threshold value that the corrected value of each trap is set with one, if some
The corrected value of trap is greater than the threshold value and otherwise, does not exploit the trap it is possible to exploit the trap.
Wherein, for any one trap, the finding process of corrected value are as follows: seek the corresponding all fathers of the trap because
Initial value and the product of corresponding weight coefficient of son, obtain corresponding product value, then seek the sum of these product values, obtain
To and value be exactly the trap in the geologic risk evaluation model corrected value.
Carry out the method that the present invention will be described in detail provides by taking deep tectonic process Biyang Sag as an example below.
As high degree of prospecting area, prospect pit is more, has gone up jumping through hoops and has closed sample compared with horn of plenty, geologic risk model foundation is difficult
It is smaller, it is total be collected into 2006 since the Biyang Sag 205 practical drilling situations closed that above jump through hoops, with its prior parent, it is sub- because
Value condition comparative analysis finds that its value span is big before son bores, and pollutes distinct up and down, is suitable for answering for contamination factor method
With, father factor contamination coefficient plate 5 width secondary by the sub- factor contamination coefficient plate 24 of drafting, 1 set of geologic risk model.
(1) sub- factor contamination coefficient and weight solve
1), contamination factor solves
As shown in figure 4, directly the sub- factor contamination upper bound of depth of cover is 0.8, pollution lower bound is 0.7, and pollution bandwidth is
0.1, whole value bandwidth is 0.55, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.1/0.55=0.18.
As shown in figure 5, directly the capping temper factor contamination upper bound is 0.75, pollution lower bound is 0.68, and pollution bandwidth is
0.07, whole value bandwidth is 0.49, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.14.
As shown in fig. 6, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of tectonically active basins is 0.76, pollution lower bound is 0.6, and pollution bandwidth is
0.16, whole value bandwidth is 0.45, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.36.
As shown in fig. 7, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of Lateral plugging condition is 0.78, pollution lower bound is 0.62, and pollution bandwidth is
0.16, whole value bandwidth is 0.32, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.5.
As shown in figure 8, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of hydrocarbon source rock thickness is 0.8, pollution lower bound is 0.66, and pollution bandwidth is
0.14, whole value bandwidth is 0.38, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.37.
As shown in figure 9, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of organic matter type is 0.76, pollution lower bound is 0.68, and pollution bandwidth is
0.08, whole value bandwidth is 0.26, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.31.
As shown in Figure 10, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of hydrocarbon source conditions is 0.75, and pollution lower bound is 0.65, and pollution bandwidth is
0.1, whole value bandwidth is 0.36, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.28.
As shown in figure 11, circle source is 0.76 apart from the sub- factor contamination upper bound, and pollution lower bound is 0.56, and pollution bandwidth is 0.2,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.48, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.42.
As shown in figure 12, the sub- factor contamination upper bound in trap position is 0.8, and pollution lower bound is 0.55, and pollution bandwidth is 0.25,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.4, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.63.
As shown in figure 13, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of migration pathway is 0.84, and pollution lower bound is 0.7, and pollution bandwidth is 0.14,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.3, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.47.
As shown in figure 14, the time is 0.84 with the cover factor contamination upper bound, and pollution lower bound is 0.68, and pollution bandwidth is
0.16, whole value bandwidth is 0.24, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.67.
As shown in figure 15, space is 0.82 with the cover factor contamination upper bound, and pollution lower bound is 0.63, and pollution bandwidth is
0.19, whole value bandwidth is 0.3, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.63.
As shown in figure 16, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of trap area is 0.16, and pollution lower bound is 0, and pollution bandwidth is 0.16, whole
Body value bandwidth is 0.38, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.42.
As shown in figure 17, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of trap amplitude is 0.3, and pollution lower bound is 0, and pollution bandwidth is 0.3, whole
Value bandwidth is 0.75, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.75.
As shown in figure 18, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of Trap Typesof is 0.75, and pollution lower bound is 0.2, and pollution bandwidth is 0.55,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.7, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.79.
As shown in figure 19, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of trap buried depth is 0.88, and pollution lower bound is 0.36, and pollution bandwidth is
0.52, whole value bandwidth is 0.8, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.65.
As shown in figure 20, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of seismic data quality is 0.78, and pollution lower bound is 0.66, and pollution bandwidth is
0.12, whole value bandwidth is 0.33, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.36.
As shown in figure 21, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of earthquake controlling extent is 0.76, and pollution lower bound is 0.69, and pollution bandwidth is
0.07, whole value bandwidth is 0.3, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.23.
As shown in figure 22, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of Drilling Control degree is 0.8, and pollution lower bound is 0.71, and pollution bandwidth is
0.09, whole value bandwidth is 0.24, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.38.
As shown in figure 23, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of reservoir lithology is 0.75, and pollution lower bound is 0.55, and pollution bandwidth is 0.2,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.5, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.4.
As shown in figure 24, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of reservoir thickness is 0.68, and pollution lower bound is 0.52, and pollution bandwidth is
0.16, whole value bandwidth is 0.4, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.4.
As shown in figure 25, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of reservoir porosity is 0.82, and pollution lower bound is 0.76, and pollution bandwidth is
0.06, whole value bandwidth is 0.29, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.21.
As shown in figure 26, the mutually sub- factor contamination upper bound of reservoir sedimentation is 0.82, and pollution lower bound is 0.74, and pollution bandwidth is
0.08, whole value bandwidth is 0.27, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.3.
As shown in figure 27, the sub- factor contamination upper bound of TRAP RESERVE is 0.2, and pollution lower bound is 0, and pollution bandwidth is 0.2, whole
Body value bandwidth is 0.24, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.83.
2), weight solves
For the sub- factor belonged under same father's factor, corresponding cleanliness is calculated according to the contamination factor of the factor, so
The sub- factor under same father's factor is normalized afterwards, weight is sought, is shown in Table 1.
Table 1
Wherein: Pc=1-Pw
Pz=Pc/Ph
Ph is the sum of the sub- factor cleanliness (Pc) under different father's factors
(2) father's factor value solves
For any one trap, calculate the weight coefficient of the corresponding sub- factor for belonging to same father's factor of the trap with
The product of initial value, obtains product value, is then added the product value of all sub- factors belonged under same father's factor,
Just the initial value for obtaining father's factor of the trap, by taking No. 1 trap of Biyang Sag as an example, and with the corresponding father of No. 1 trap because
Son is for preservation condition, if the corresponding direct initial value of depth of cover of the trap is 0.78, cap rock lithology is initially taken
Value is 0.8, and the initial value of tectonically active basins is 0.73, and the initial value of Lateral plugging condition is 0.82, then corresponding father
The value Qf=0.78*0.291472+0.8*0.300828+0.73*0.229579+0.82*0.17812 2 of factor preservation condition
=0.78166327, so, for father's factor preservation condition, it is 205 corresponding that 205 traps can be obtained by the above method
Initial value, so and so on calculate other father's factors --- filling condition, trap condition, reservoir conditions and strategic valence
The initial value of value, is shown in Table 2.
Table 2
According to the initial value of whole father's factors of obtained each trap, father's factor contamination plate can be drawn.It draws
Horizontal axis is trap serial number, and the longitudinal axis is father's factor value, and trap is successful and unsuccessfully draws father's factor contamination plate for two big series.
(3) father's factor contamination coefficient and weight solve
1), contamination factor solves
As shown in figure 28, the preservation condition father factor contamination upper bound is 0.73, and pollution lower bound is 0.67, and pollution bandwidth is
0.06, whole value bandwidth is 0.49, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.12.
As shown in figure 29, the filling condition father factor contamination upper bound is 0.74, and pollution lower bound is 0.7, and pollution bandwidth is 0.04,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.26, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.15.
As shown in figure 30, the trap condition father factor contamination upper bound is 0.58, and pollution lower bound is 0.5, and pollution bandwidth is 0.08,
Whole value bandwidth is 0.2, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.4.
As shown in figure 31, the reservoir conditions father factor contamination upper bound is 0.72, and pollution lower bound is 0.68, and pollution bandwidth is
0.04, whole value bandwidth is 0.27, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.15.
As shown in figure 32, the strategic value father factor contamination upper bound is 0.24, and pollution lower bound is 0.0, and pollution bandwidth is 0.22,
Whole value bandwidth is 0, then, contamination factor is equal to 0.83.
2) weight solves
Its degree of purity is sought according to father's factor contamination coefficient, the summation of all father's factor degree of purity is then calculated, wherein one
A father's factor weight coefficient is equal to the corresponding degree of purity of father's factor divided by the summation of all father's factor degree of purity, i.e., will own
The pure angle value of father's factor be normalized and can seek corresponding weight coefficient, be shown in Table 3.
Table 3
Wherein: Pj=1-Pw
Pf=Pj/Pi
Pi is the sum of the cleanliness (Pj) of each father's factor
(4) weight coefficient correction calculates
2012 editions geologic risk models are continued to use always before Biyang Sag correction, and wherein each opposite sex of weight coefficient is poor, exists
Subjective inference, it is respectively equal with sexual factor, pass through the above-mentioned weight coefficient that all sub- factors have been calculated and all fathers
The weight coefficient of the factor, then, it is carried out according to obtained weight coefficient and above-mentioned 2012 continued to use always edition geologic risk model
Compare, it can be found that son obtained by calculation, father's factor weight coefficient are compared with the correspondence weight system in model before
It is varied widely, and each opposite sex is clearly, meets actual production geologic rule, wherein save item in father's factor 5
Part weight coefficient is maximum, and strategic value weight is washed one's face and rinsed one's mouth minimum, the sub- factor directly thickness degree under preservation condition in the sub- factor 24
Weight coefficient is maximum, and lateral block condition weight coefficient is minimum；Sub- factor hydrocarbon source conditions weight coefficient is most under the conditions of filling
Greatly, time mating weight coefficient is minimum；Sub- factor earthquake controlling extent weight coefficient is maximum under trap condition, trap amplitude weight
Coefficient is minimum；Sub- factor reservoir porosity weight coefficient is maximum under reservoir conditions, and reservoir thickness weight coefficient is minimum；Strategic value
Under the conditions of the sub- factor there was only TRAP RESERVE one, weight coefficient 1 is specifically shown in Table 4.According to the power for the sub- factor being calculated
The weight coefficient of value coefficient and father's factor is corrected original model, obtains new model, so, it is obtained by correction
New model, which is equivalent to, establishes a new model.
Table 4
For any one trap, the initial values of all father's factors and the product of corresponding weight coefficient are sought, is obtained
To multiple product values, the sum of these product values are then sought, obtain and value is exactly the trap in the geologic risk evaluation model
In corrected value, and compare the size between the corrected value and given threshold, to evaluate whether the trap needs to exploit.
Geologic risk model evaluation conclusion reliability can be differentiated by revaluing rear contamination factor situation of change, be polluted
Coefficient is opposite to become smaller, and evaluation conclusion is more reliable, closer in reality, introduces Biyang Sag by the weight coefficient after correcting
Geologic risk model, which jump through hoops closing to revalue, finds that more previous evaluating template is effectively reduced 29 percentage points of contamination factor, this
The reliability of Biyang Sag conservation trap oily probability assessment result will be largely improved, as shown in figs. 33 and 34.
So when carrying out exploration oil gas, can be improved the accuracy of exploration using the geologic risk model of foundation, reduce
There is the probability judged by accident.
Note: each of above-mentioned Fig. 4 to Figure 34 point represents initial value.
In above-described embodiment, the sub- factor and father's factor give a kind of embodiment, wherein the sub- factor includes 24 seed ginsengs
Number, father's factor include 6 kinds of parameters, and still, the invention is not limited to above embodiment, as other embodiments, son
The type number of parameter in the factor can be increased or be reduced according to actual needs, the type of the parameter in father's factor
Number can be increased or be reduced according to actual needs, and the number for belonging to the sub- factor under father's factor can also be with
Increased according to actual needs or is reduced.
Specific embodiment is presented above, but the present invention is not limited to described embodiment.Base of the invention
This thinking is above-mentioned basic scheme, and for those of ordinary skill in the art, various changes are designed in introduction according to the present invention
The model of shape, formula, parameter do not need to spend creative work.It is right without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention
The change, modification, replacement and modification that embodiment carries out are still fallen in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction, which comprises the following steps:
(1) type of each trap and the initial value of corresponding secondary parameter are obtained, wherein the type of each trap obtains
It takes specifically: trap is divided into successfully and is failed by the oil test data that probing well has been gone up based on different regions, different type trap
Two types；
(2) for each secondary parameter, it is referred to as the sub- factor, secondary parameter is divided into several groups, one master of every group of correspondence
Grade parameter is referred to as father's factor for each main parameter；The corresponding sub- factor initially takes before being bored according to different traps
Value obtains the pollution upper bound for corresponding to the sub- factor and pollution lower bound, and then obtains pollution bandwidth and whole value bandwidth, described in calculating
Bandwidth is polluted divided by the whole value bandwidth, and obtained quotient is the contamination factor of the corresponding sub- factor, then according to corresponding son
The contamination factor of the factor, and the principle for being one based on the sum of all sub- factor weight coefficients for belonging to father's factor calculates
The weight coefficient of the corresponding sub- factor；
(3) for any one trap, seek the initial values of all sub- factors for belonging to father's factor with it is corresponding
The product of weight coefficient obtains corresponding product value, then seeks the sum of these product values, obtain and value be exactly correspondence father because
The initial value of son；
(4) for any one father's factor, the pollution upper bound and the dirt of corresponding father's factor are obtained according to the initial value of father's factor
Lower bound is contaminated, and then obtains pollution bandwidth and whole value bandwidth, calculating pollution bandwidth is divided by whole value bandwidth, obtained quotient
For the contamination factor of corresponding father's factor, then according to the contamination factor of corresponding father's factor, and the weight based on all father's factors
The principle that the sum of coefficient is one calculates the weight coefficient of corresponding father's factor；
(5) the geologic risk evaluation model of correction is established according to the weight coefficient of the weight coefficient of the sub- factor and father's factor.
2. the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction according to claim 1, which is characterized in that each trap
Type and corresponding secondary parameter initial value between relationship by correspond to the sub- factor contamination factor plate indicate, it is sub- because
In the contamination factor plate of son, using the initial value of the sub- factor of the correspondence of each trap as the longitudinal axis, with trap serial number horizontal axis, and
It is series with trap success or not.
3. the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction according to claim 1, which is characterized in that each trap
Type and corresponding father's factor initial value between relationship by correspond to father's factor contamination factor plate indicate, father's factor
Contamination factor plate in, using the initial value of correspondence father's factor of each trap as the longitudinal axis, with trap serial number horizontal axis, and with
Trap success or not is series.
4. the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the sub- factor
The calculation method of weight coefficient are as follows: calculate the cleanliness of the corresponding sub- factor according to the contamination factor of the sub- factor first, cleanliness is equal to 1 and subtracts
Remove corresponding contamination factor；Then calculate the sum for belonging to the cleanliness of all sub- factors in same father's factor, then, the father because
The weight coefficient of the lower a certain a sub- factor of son is equal to the corresponding cleanliness of the sub- factor divided by the sum of the cleanliness.
5. the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction according to claim 1, which is characterized in that father's factor
The calculation method of weight coefficient are as follows: calculate the cleanliness of corresponding father's factor according to the contamination factor of father's factor first, cleanliness is equal to 1 and subtracts
Remove corresponding contamination factor；Then the sum of the cleanliness of all father's factors is calculated, then, the weight coefficient of some father's factor is just
Equal to the corresponding cleanliness of father's factor divided by the sum of the cleanliness.
6. the method for building up of the geologic risk evaluation model of correction according to claim 1, which is characterized in that it is described it is sub- because
Attached bag include direct depth of cover, cap rock lithology, tectonically active basins, Lateral plugging condition, hydrocarbon source rock thickness, organic matter type,
Hydrocarbon source conditions, circle source distance, trap position, migration pathway, the time is mating, space is mating, trap area, trap amplitude,
Trap Typesof, trap buried depth, seismic profile quality, earthquake controlling extent, Drilling Control degree, reservoir lithology, reservoir thickness, storage
Layer porosity, reservoir sedimentation phase and TRAP RESERVE；Father's factor includes preservation condition, filling condition, trap condition, reservoir
Condition and strategic value；The direct depth of cover, cap rock lithology, tectonically active basins and Lateral plugging condition belong to preservation item
Part, the hydrocarbon source rock thickness, organic matter type, hydrocarbon source conditions, circle source distance, trap position, migration pathway, time are mating
With space is mating belongs to filling condition；The trap area, trap amplitude, Trap Typesof, trap buried depth, seismic profile quality,
Earthquake controlling extent and Drilling Control degree belong to trap condition, the reservoir lithology, reservoir thickness, reservoir porosity and reservoir
Sedimentary facies belongs to reservoir conditions, and the TRAP RESERVE belongs to strategic value.
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