CN106250616B - Navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure based on dynamic reliability estimation - Google Patents
Navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure based on dynamic reliability estimation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedures estimated based on dynamic reliability, first, according to the current operating data of in-orbit constellation, introduce random failure, degradation failure and the wear-out failure factor of satellite, establish dynamic reliability estimation model, estimated based on reliability, obtains single star failure rate and change over time curve；Then, it calculates in the case of having k satellite failure in M satellite in constellation, the constellation probability of malfunction P of n failure combinationk,n(t) and constellation inherent availability CVn,kValue；Finally, according to Pk,n(t) and CVn,kThe constellation service availability for calculating navigational satellite system changes over time relationship.Predict the in-orbit reliability of satellite in real time using this method, it can get high-precision, highly reliable satellite constellation availability, the problem of solving the problems, such as to rely only on the design of constellation configuration and calculate Constellation availability inaccuracy, incomplete, and Constellation availability cannot being assessed in real time.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedures based on dynamic reliability estimation, belong to satellite
Navigation field.
Background technique
With being constantly progressive for airmanship, Global Navigation System is continued to develop, the Performance Evaluation system of navigation system
Continuous perfect.Whether navigation system can provide ability that is reliable, stablizing service, be one to navigation system performance evaluation
The service availability of a important criteria, usable satellite constellation is measured.Navigation satellite Constellation availability directly affects as user
The implementation of Disposal Strategies, is that system contractor, operator, underwriter and user etc. are general after the quality and satellite to longevity of offer service
All over the major issue being concerned about.
The failure of any satellite, which can result in it, in constellation can not provide normal navigation Service, and then influence star
The availability of seat.Current Constellation availability is dependent on the design of constellation configuration, phased deployment and backup strategy selection, in constellation
Design phase completes, i.e. the inherent availability of constellation, such as precision availability.In orbit with satellite, satellite may be with
When fail or degenerate, so, rely only on the design of constellation configuration and calculate that Constellation availability has inaccuracy, incomplete problem,
And there are problems that Constellation availability cannot be assessed in real time.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem solved by the invention is: overcoming the deficiencies of the prior art and provide and is estimated based on dynamic reliability
Navigation satellite Constellation availability algorithm, it is generally existing based on single satellite for the dynamic evaluation forecast demand of Constellation availability
Random failure, three kinds of failure mechanisms of degradation failure and wear-out failure, propose that one kind comprehensively considers three kinds of failure mechanisms, it is pre- in real time
The method for surveying the in-orbit reliability of single satellite, and according to the in-orbit reliability of every satellite in constellation, Constellation availability is carried out
Assessment and prediction.
Another technical problem solved by the invention is: it is average in-orbit surplus to provide the satellite estimated based on dynamic reliability
Remaining life estimation method.
An also technical problem solved by the invention is: providing the navigation satellite constellation shape estimated based on dynamic reliability
The estimation method of state probability.
The technical scheme is that the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure based on dynamic reliability estimation, tool
Body step are as follows:
(1), dynamic reliability estimation model is established, is estimated based on reliability, single star failure rate is obtained and changes over time song
Line obtains all satellite failure rate function f in constellationm(t), m=1~M, M are the number of satellites in constellation；
(2), according to the failure rate function of each satellite in step (1) resulting constellation, calculating in constellation has in M satellite
In the case of k satellite failure, the constellation probability of malfunction P of n failure combinationk,n(t)；
(3), it calculates in the case of having k satellite failure in M satellite in constellation, n failure combines the intrinsic of constellation can
With property CVk,nValue；
(4), the constellation service availability for calculating navigational satellite system changes over time relationship, and formula is as follows:
The step (1) obtains single star failure rate and changes over time curve method particularly includes:
(1.1), the remaining life model for establishing single star, obtains the effecting surplus service life T of single starend；
(1.2), using Monte-Carlo Simulation, step (1.1) is repeated, N is obtainedeA satellite remaining life simulation value
Tend(k), k=1~Ne, Ne≥3000；
(1.3), with current time t0For starting point, setting statistics section time interval is Δ Te, define NDeltaA Statistical Area
Between: [t0,t0+i*ΔTe], i=1~NDelta, NDeltaValue meets NDelta×ΔTe≥Tend_max, wherein Tend_maxFor step
(1.2) obtained satellite remaining life simulation value maximum value；
(1.4), work as t0+Tend(k)∈[t0,t0+i*ΔTe] when, it is believed that this satellite falls in i-th of system to the date in longevity
It counts in section, statistics falls in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] in satellite accumulation to longevity number Fi, i=1~
NDelta；
(1.5), satellite remaining life is calculated in statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] probability: PT(i)=1-Fi/Ne, i=
1~NDeltaTo get the remaining life Annual distribution for arriving satellite；
(1.6), the remaining life Annual distribution P of the satellite calculated according to step (1.5)T(i), it calculates in each statistics
Section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] in satellite reliability RT(i), i=1~NDeltaTo get the reliability Annual distribution for arriving satellite, meter
Calculate formula are as follows:
(1.7), satellite crash rate is calculated in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] satellite statistics failure rate fT
(i) are as follows:
(1.8), by the statistics failure rate f of each statistics section satelliteT(i) it is fitted to single star failure rate and changes over time song
Line f (t).
The effecting surplus service life T of the list starendCalculation method are as follows:
(1.1.1), according to design of satellites reliability R, satellite random failure remaining life T is calculated1；
(1.1.2), single star remaining propellant mass X is obtained, calculates satellite wear-out failure remaining life T2；
(1.1.3), solar battery array output power W is obtained, calculates satellite degradation failure remaining life T3；
(1.1.4), assume that the working time is T to satellite0Year, judgment step (1.1.1)~step (1.1.3) is calculated
One group of remaining life data (T1,T2,T3) whether effectively, work as T1>T0When, this group of data are effective, enter step (1.1.5)；When
T1≤T0When, then it is assumed that this group of data invalid abandons this group of remaining life data, repeats step (1.1.1)~step (1.1.4)；
(1.1.5), according to remaining life data (T1,T2,T3) calculate effective satellite remaining life Tend:
Tend=min (T1-T0,T2,T3)
The step (2) calculates in the case of having k satellite failure in M satellite in constellation, the constellation of n failure combination
Probability of malfunction Pk,n(t) formula is；
In formula, fn,m(t)=fm(t), m=1~M
fn,m(t) to there is the m satellite under n combined situation when k satellite failure in M satellite in entire constellation
Failure rate function.
According to the calculated result of step (1.2), to NeA effective satellite remaining life simulation value is averaging, and can be calculated
To the average in-orbit remaining life of satellite, calculation formula are as follows:
According to the calculated result of step (2), constellation state probability P can be calculatedk(t), calculation formula are as follows:
The advantages of the present invention over the prior art are that:
(1) present invention introduces random failure and other degeneration sexual factors, in real time according to the current operating data of in-orbit constellation
It predicts the in-orbit reliability of satellite, can get high-precision, highly reliable satellite constellation availability, solve previous methods and rely only on
The design of constellation configuration calculates Constellation availability inaccuracy, incomplete problem, and cannot be commented in real time Constellation availability
The problem of estimating, this method is simple, convenient, can be used for engineering and uses and promote.
(2) estimation for being solved to current time to future of constellation service availability of the present invention, it is following more can to solve satellite
The constellation service availability in year, assessment result is true, is easy to search the weak link of constellation, carries out constellation backup strategy in advance and grinds
Study carefully.
(3) the dynamic reliability appraisal procedure of satellite of the present invention has comprehensively considered the design point of satellite, in-orbit resident event
Barrier, propellant loss and solar battery array decaying, introduce random failure, degradation failure and the wear-out failure factor of satellite, use
It is reliable to solve previous satellite using monte carlo simulation methodology, the reliability of dynamic evaluation satellite for satellite current operating data
Property appraisal procedure in only consider that propellant leads to assessment result inaccuracy, incomplete problem, while also solving cannot be with can
The problem of predicting certain satellite remaining life in real time by property method for predicting.
(4) present invention is while assessing whole Constellation availability, to estimated, the single star of the reliability (crash rate) of single star
Influence of average estimated, the single star of in-orbit remaining life to entire constellation (includes: a few stars while the probability of failure in constellation
Constellation value (CV value) in (constellation state probability), constellation after a few star failures) it is calculated, it supports from multiple angles to star
Seat weak link is analyzed, and is provided strong support to constellation backup strategy research.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is Constellation availability calculation flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the satellite reliability prediction of embodiment.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with attached drawing, the present invention is described in detail with specific embodiment.
Navigation satellite Constellation availability algorithm based on dynamic reliability estimation of the invention specifically includes that foundation dynamic
Reliability estimation model, calculating navigation constellation availability and etc..Of the invention focuses on having comprehensively considered the random of satellite
Failure, degradation failure and wear-out failure mechanism, emulation obtain the real-time in-orbit reliability of satellite, reuse the reliability to calculate
The service availability of constellation.
Navigation satellite Constellation availability algorithm based on dynamic reliability estimation of the invention realizes that steps are as follows:
One, dynamic reliability estimation model is established, is estimated based on reliability, all single star failure rates is obtained and changes over time
Curve
1, the remaining life model for initially setting up single star obtains the effecting surplus service life T of single starend.Specific steps are as follows:
(1) consider satellite random failure mechanism, calculate the satellite random failure remaining life that design of satellites reliability R is determined
T1
The crash rate λ of every star are as follows:
In formula, y is the projected life of this star；R is single star work according to current state it is reliable to projected life y
Degree；
Exponential distribution, the lifetime of satellite T that every star is determined by design of satellites reliability R are obeyed in the distribution of satellite random failure1
Are as follows:
Wherein, rnd () be random function, export be 0~1 between equally distributed random number, T1Unit is year.
(2) the satellite wear-out failure remaining life T determined by remaining propellant mass X is calculated2
It is annual to consume propellant X to any one satellitemin~Xmax(kg), the unusable propellant residual quantity of satellite,
It leaves the right or normal track and captures propellant waste again and calculate the sum of the margin of error as Xend(kg).Typically, propellant annual consumption, which takes, uniformly divides
Cloth.
The satellite longest remaining life T determined by remaining propellant massbxAre as follows:
The most short remaining life T of satellite determined by remaining propellant massaxAre as follows:
The satellite remaining life T determined by propellant2Are as follows:
T2=Tax+rnd()×(Tbx-Tax) (5)
X is single star residual propellant, is obtained from the propulsion subsystem telemetry of satellite.
(3) the satellite degradation failure remaining life T determined by solar battery array output power W is calculated3。
The satellite remaining life T determined by degradation failure is sought in calculating3, satellite degradation failure in need of consideration is a because being known as Q,
Assuming that the satellite remaining life that these satellite degeneration factors determine is T3i, (i=1,2 ... ..., Q), then T3It takes and is lost by each degeneration
The minimum value for the satellite remaining life that effect factor determines.Typically, it is considered that the deciding factor of satellite degradation failure is too
Positive cell array power attenuation, so, T in the present invention3It is determined by solar battery array power attenuation.
To any one satellite, solar battery array year attenuation rate is Wmin~Wmax, the output power lower limit of solar battery array
For Wend。
The satellite longest remaining life T determined by the output power of solar battery arraybwAre as follows:
The most short remaining life T of satellite determined by the output power of solar battery arrayawAre as follows:
The satellite remaining life T determined by the output power of solar battery array3Are as follows:
T3=Taw+rnd()×(Tbw-Taw) (8)
W is the power that every star solar battery array can currently provide, and is obtained from the power subsystem telemetry of satellite.
(4) satellite remaining life T is calculatedend。
Assuming that the working time is T to satellite0Year, T1Greater than T0, it is believed that one group of data that step (1)~step (3) calculates
(T1,T2,T3) effectively, T1Less than or equal to T0, then it is assumed that this group of data invalid gives up this group of data.
Calculate effective satellite remaining life TendAre as follows:
Tend=min (T1-T0,T2,T3) (9)
2, it using Monte-Carlo Simulation, repeats step (1), (general effective simulation times should be at 3000 times or more) are tired out
Effective simulation times N of metereAnd NeA satellite remaining life simulation value Tend(k), k=1~Ne。
3, according to single satellite effecting surplus service life Tend, carry out the statistics of satellite reliability and crash rate
(1) the satellite remaining life simulation value Tend (k) obtained according to step 2, k=1~Ne count the remaining life time
Distribution；
A. with current time t0For starting point, setting statistics section time interval is Δ Te, such as: one month, defining NDeltaIt is a
Count section: [t0,t0+i*ΔTe], i=1~NDelta, NDeltaValue meets NDelta×ΔTe≥Tend_max, wherein Tend_max
For the obtained satellite remaining life simulation value maximum value of step (1.2)；
B. work as t0+Tend(k)∈[t0,t0+i*ΔTe] when, it is believed that this satellite falls in i-th of Statistical Area to the date in longevity
In, statistics falls in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] in satellite accumulation to longevity number (i.e. Failure count) Fi, i
=1~NDelta, FiIt indicates in Tend(k), k=1~NeIn, there is FiA TendFall in statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] in；
C. satellite remaining life is calculated in statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] probability: PT(i)=1-Fi/Ne, i=1~
NDeltaTo get the remaining life Annual distribution for arriving satellite；
(2) according to the remaining life Annual distribution of step (1), the distribution system of satellite dynamic reliability and crash rate is carried out
Meter.
The reliability of satellite: in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe], i=1~NDeltaObtained satellite reliability
RT(i) Annual distribution, calculation formula are as follows:
The crash rate of satellite: in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] obtained satellite crash rate fT(i) are as follows:
To fT(i) linear fit, the failure rate function f (t) of available satellite and the reliability function R of satellite are carried out
(t)=1-f (t).
Algorithm above considers three kinds of mechanism for causing satellite to fail comprehensively, i.e. random failure, degradation failure and consumption is lost
Mechanism is imitated, based on the satellite predicting residual useful life algorithm for considering random failure and degradation failure and wear-out failure, obtains satellite
In-orbit dynamic reliability is, it is expected that this method compensates for the defect that existing reckoning satellite remaining life only considers propellant expenditure, together
When method for predicting reliability is promoted to Dynamic prediction by original inherent reliability statistics, be more in line with actual conditions.
4, it when the Satellite System satellites number is M, repeats step 1~step 3 and obtains the event of all satellites of the satellite system
Barrier rate f1(t)~fM(t)。
Two, according to the failure rate of each satellite in constellation, the n having in the case of k satellite failure in M satellite is calculated
Combine constellation probability of malfunction Pk,n(t)。
For the constellation comprising M satellite, S is usedk(k=0,1 ..., M) indicates constellation malfunction, S0It is no satellite event
The state of barrier, S1It is the state for having 1 satellite failure, other and so on.Occur k satellite failure number of combinations beThat is M
The middle number of combinations for selecting k, at thisThe constellation probability of malfunction under n combination in kind combination is Pk,n(t), fn,m(t) n-th is indicated
Kind combines the crash rate of lower the m satellite, the crash rate of as the m satellite, fm(t) can be estimated as needed by dynamic reliability
The crash rate of the single star obtained in step (1) in meter model changes over time curve and obtains, calculates P using following formulak,n
(t):
In formula, fn,m(t)=fm(t), m=1~M
Three, the inherent availability CV of constellation under n combined situation when having k satellite failure in M satellite is calculatedk,n
Value.
The inherent availability of constellation is indicated with CV value (constellation value), can be calculated constellation according to Constellation Design and inherently may be used
With property CV value；Inherent availability shows the design point of constellation, and such as CV value of the intact system in service area is greater than 97%.Work as star
Seat configuration determines that CV value just can determine.
It is L grid, constellation under n combined situation when having k satellite failure in M satellite by service differentiation
CVk,nIt is worth calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, T is total simulation time, corresponding entire satellite system constellation recursion period；Δ t is simulation time interval, t0
For current time, L is grid number, and bool () is Boolean function, and Area is the coverage gross area, areaiFor i-th of grid
Area, J be time interval sum, t0At the time of+j* Δ t is that j-th of time interval corresponds to,For in M satellite
Have under the n combination in the case of k satellite failure, t0The DOP value of+j* time Δt, i-th grid, DOPmaxIt can for system
The value DOP thresholding of service is provided.
For example, can choose total simulation time T is 7 days；Simulation time interval Δ is 5 minutes；Area dividing precision (longitude and latitude
Degree) it is 2 °；DOP value selects PDOP value, DOPmaxIt is taken as 5.
Four, the constellation service availability A for calculating navigational satellite system changes over time relationship, and calculation formula is as follows:
In formula, A is the service availability considered in the case of Constellation availability and constellation CV value；M is the satellite number in constellation
Amount；Pk,n(t) the constellation state probability for indicating n situation in the various combinations under k satellite failure conditions, by being obtained in (2)
Out；CVk,nIt indicates the constellation CV value that n combines in various combinations under k satellite failure conditions, is obtained by formula (16).By
This, the available constellation service availability A from current time changes over time situation.
It in the prior art, is that satellite-based constellation configuration designs to satellite constellation availability, what is obtained is consolidating for constellation
There is availability, such as the precision availability of constellation, CV value etc., Constellation Design is once confirm, inherent availability does not change over time, nothing
Method is assessed in real time.The present invention is according to constellation probability of malfunction Pk,n(t) it with constellation inherent availability CV value, calculates from current time
Constellation service availability change over time situation, the thin of constellation can be searched according to the constellation service availability that this is evaluated
Weak link considers the backup strategy of constellation in time.Such as, passage at any time is constantly declined by each satellite inherent availability
It influences, constellation service availability is gradually decreased by initial 99%, and when being lower than a certain thresholding such as 90%, illustrating constellation, there are thin
Weak link should consider backup strategy in advance.
It further, can also be by the T that is calculated formula (9)endIt is averaging, calculates the average in-orbit of satellite
Remaining life:
In the prior art, spacecraft inherent reliability is only limitted to the considerations of random failure to expect.Reliability prediction uses
Be statistical method, but a spacecraft is without statistical significance, and therefore, reliability prediction not can solve dynamic prediction
The problem of one spacecraft service life.In other words, reliability prediction can only a batch same shape of the static prediction with statistical significance
The service life of the spacecraft of state is distributed, and is nonsensical for this spacecraft specific for one.The invention proposes based on illiteracy
A kind of real time algorithm of special Caro emulation, is capable of the remaining life of dynamic prediction one specific spacecraft, solves problem above.
Further, it is constellation state probability P that the probability value of k satellite failure, which occurs, in definitionk(t), i.e. SkThe probability of appearance
Value is constellation state probability Pk(t), can in the constellation according to obtained in step (1) each satellite failure rate f1(t)~fM
(t), constellation state probability is calculated, i.e., there are the probability of a few satellites failure in entire constellation, and calculate from current time
Constellation state probability is played to change with time situation；Constellation state probability is related to the satellite number of failure, also in-orbit with satellite
The time correlation (related to single star failure rate) of work e.g. occurs the general of most 2 satellites failures when completing networking 5.5 years
Rate is about 98%.
Constellation state probability P from current timek(t) situation is changed over time are as follows:
It is described in detail below by way of specific embodiment and the satellite that three kinds of failure mechanisms determine is obtained by Monte-Carlo Simulation
The remaining life time compares and obtains satellite remaining life, obtains satellite reliability in time by Multi simulation running and can dynamically update:
Embodiment
Known certain satellite design lifetime y is 10 years, and the estimated reliability R of satellite is 0.6 (10 years).Currently, satellite exists
Rail works 5 years, all goes well on star；Current residual propellant is 105kg, and satellite consumes propellant 10kg~15kg every year, defends
The unusable propellant residual quantity of star, leaving the right or normal track captures propellant waste again and calculates the sum of the margin of error as 20kg；Current function
Rate is 2480W, and solar battery array year attenuation rate is 50W~80W, lower limit of the power 2000W.In degradation failure, the sun is only considered
Cell array attenuation factor.It is as follows to the satellite remaining life and forecast of distribution based on current state.
1) defining simulation times is 100,000 times, and statistics interval is 1 month.Consideration currentlys propel agent surplus, is arranged
Simulation time is 10 years.
2) assume that satellite obeys exponential distribution, emulation obtains satellite random failure time T1。
By known conditions, satellite crash rate
Random failure time of the satellite in primary emulation:
In formula, η1For random number, 0 < η1<1。
2) assume that propellant expenditure obedience is uniformly distributed, emulation obtains satellite remaining life T2。
The satellite remaining life determined by known conditions, propellant are as follows:
T2=(Tax+η2(Tbx-Tax))×8760
In formula,η2For random number, 0 < η2<1。
3) assume that solar battery array remaining life obedience is uniformly distributed, emulation obtains satellite remaining life T3。
By known conditions, the satellite remaining life determined by solar battery array decaying are as follows:
T3=(Taw+η3(Tbw-Taw))×8760
In formula,η3For random number, 0 < η3<1。
4) whole star remaining life is sought.
By T1With T0Compare, if T1Less than or equal to T0, then give up this group of data；T1Greater than T0, then it is denoted as and once imitates
Very.
In primary effectively emulation, which is Tend=min (T1-T0,T2,T3)。
After executing 100,000 emulation, satellite predicting residual useful life value can be obtained emulates obtained remaining life mean value and be
5.75 year.
5) whole star reliability prediction is asked.
According to statistics setting condition, 120 statistics sections are shared, by counting each time zone in 100,000 emulation
It is as shown in Figure 2 can to obtain the in-orbit reliability curve distribution of this satellite for interior satellite Failure count.
The content that description in the present invention is not described in detail belongs to the well-known technique of those skilled in the art.
Claims (5)
1. the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure based on dynamic reliability estimation, it is characterised in that:
(1), dynamic reliability estimation model is established, is estimated based on reliability, single star failure rate is obtained and changes over time curve, obtain
All satellite failure rate function f into constellationm(t), m=1~M, M are the number of satellites in constellation；Obtain single star failure rate with
Time changing curve method particularly includes:
(1.1), the remaining life model for establishing single star, obtains the effecting surplus service life T of single starend；
(1.2), using Monte-Carlo Simulation, step (1.1) is repeated, N is obtainedeA satellite remaining life simulation value Tend(k),
K=1~Ne, Ne≥3000；
(1.3), with current time t0For starting point, setting statistics section time interval is Δ Te, define NDeltaA statistics section:
[t0,t0+i*ΔTe], i=1~NDelta, NDeltaValue meets NDelta×ΔTe≥Tend_max, wherein Tend_maxFor step
(1.2) obtained satellite remaining life simulation value maximum value；
(1.4), work as t0+Tend(k)∈[t0,t0+i*ΔTe] when, it is believed that this satellite falls in i-th of statistics section to the date in longevity
Interior, statistics falls in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] in satellite accumulation to longevity number Fi, i=1~NDelta；
(1.5), satellite remaining life is calculated in statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] probability: PT(i)=1-Fi/Ne, i=1~
NDeltaTo get the remaining life Annual distribution for arriving satellite；
(1.6), the remaining life Annual distribution P of the satellite calculated according to step (1.5)T(i), it calculates and counts section at each
[t0,t0+i*ΔTe] in satellite reliability RT(i), i=1~NDeltaTo get the reliability Annual distribution for arriving satellite, calculate public
Formula are as follows:
(1.7), satellite crash rate is calculated in each statistics section [t0,t0+i*ΔTe] satellite statistics failure rate fT(i)
Are as follows:
(1.8), by the statistics failure rate f of each statistics section satelliteT(i) it is fitted to single star failure rate and changes over time curve f
(t)；
(2), according to the failure rate function of each satellite in step (1) resulting constellation, calculating in constellation has k in M satellite
In the case of satellite failure, the constellation probability of malfunction P of n failure combinationk,n(t)；
(3), it calculates in the case of having k satellite failure in M satellite in constellation, n failure combines the inherent availability of constellation
CVk,nValue；
(4), the constellation service availability for calculating navigational satellite system changes over time relationship, and formula is as follows:
2. the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on dynamic reliability estimation, special
Sign is: the effecting surplus service life T of the list starendCalculation method are as follows:
(1.1.1), according to design of satellites reliability R, satellite random failure remaining life T is calculated1；
(1.1.2), single star remaining propellant mass X is obtained, calculates satellite wear-out failure remaining life T2；
(1.1.3), solar battery array output power W is obtained, calculates satellite degradation failure remaining life T3；
(1.1.4), assume that the working time is T to satellite0Year, judgment step (1.1.1)~step (1.1.3) be calculated one
Group remaining life data (T1,T2,T3) whether effectively, work as T1>T0When, this group of data are effective, enter step (1.1.5)；Work as T1≤
T0When, then it is assumed that this group of data invalid abandons this group of remaining life data, repeats step (1.1.1)~step (1.1.4)；
(1.1.5), according to remaining life data (T1,T2,T3) calculate effective satellite remaining life Tend:
Tend=min (T1-T0,T2,T3)。
3. the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on dynamic reliability estimation, special
Sign is: the step (2) calculates in the case of having k satellite failure in M satellite in constellation, the constellation of n failure combination
Probability of malfunction Pk,n(t) formula is；
In formula, fn,m(t)=fm(t), m=1~M
fn,m(t) to there is the event of the m satellite under n combined situation when k satellite failure in M satellite in entire constellation
Barrier rate function.
4. the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on dynamic reliability estimation, special
Sign is: according to the calculated result of step (1.2), to NeA effective satellite remaining life simulation value is averaging, and can be calculated
To the average in-orbit remaining life of satellite, calculation formula are as follows:
5. the navigation satellite Constellation availability appraisal procedure according to claim 1 based on dynamic reliability estimation, special
Sign is: according to the calculated result of step (2), constellation state probability P can be calculatedk(t), calculation formula are as follows:
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| CN106940446B (en) * | 2017-03-15 | 2019-11-12 | 北京航空航天大学 | A kind of satellite navigation system usability evaluation method and device |
| CN107609292B (en) * | 2017-09-19 | 2020-04-10 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Remote sensing satellite constellation optimization method based on index evaluation |
| CN108009366A (en) * | 2017-12-08 | 2018-05-08 | 中国航天标准化研究所 | Geostationary Satellite's based on MLE and Monte-Carlo Simulation |
| CN109861739B (en) * | 2019-01-22 | 2021-09-03 | 北京电子工程总体研究所 | Method and system for sequencing effect values in designated space-time range of communication satellite |
| CN109861742B (en) * | 2019-03-01 | 2021-10-26 | 上海微小卫星工程中心 | Method for determining constellation configuration |
| CN110031872A (en) * | 2019-03-29 | 2019-07-19 | 中国航天系统科学与工程研究院 | A kind of system effectiveness comprehensive estimation method of navigation constellation |
| CN110991853B (en) * | 2019-11-28 | 2023-05-09 | 上海数深智能科技有限公司 | Equipment reliability dynamic assessment method based on fault intelligent diagnosis |
| CN111404595B (en) * | 2020-03-20 | 2021-04-06 | 西安电子科技大学 | Method for evaluating health degree of space-based network communication satellite |
| CN111795690B (en) * | 2020-04-27 | 2021-11-23 | 中国人民解放军战略支援部队航天工程大学 | Constellation backup strategy evaluation method and system based on random time Petri net |
| CN111736179B (en) * | 2020-05-14 | 2023-04-21 | 北京空间飞行器总体设计部 | Navigation constellation on-orbit running risk assessment system and method based on weighted probability |
| CN112446138B (en) * | 2020-11-05 | 2023-12-29 | 航天东方红卫星有限公司 | Reliability modeling analysis method for complex constellation system |
| CN117195730B (en) * | 2023-09-14 | 2024-03-19 | 江西睿构科技有限公司 | Method and system for analyzing service life of electromechanical equipment of expressway |
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