CN106203671A - A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change - Google Patents
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterized in that: method step is as follows, step one Future Climate Change factor change Trend Prediction, step 2 SWAT model construction and calibration, step 3 total nitrogen, total phosphorus calculate, the response to climate change of the step 4 surface water quality.Compared with prior art, the present invention estimates based on Future Climate, SWAT hydrological model and statistical analysis technique, by arranging different variations in temperature sights and changes and precipitation sight, the impact of the climate change factor pair surface water quality such as analog temperature and precipitation change, the climate change simulation study to water quality impact is carried out based on SWAT hydrological model, establish the response relation between climate change and change of water quality, the surface water quality response analysis to climate change can be carried out.Can be widely applied to study the surface water quality response to climate change, be particularly well-suited to the response analysis to climate change of the Hetao area surface water quality.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to climate change reply field, particularly relate to a kind of surface water quality response analysis side to climate change
Method.
Background technology
IPCC Global climate change the 5th assessment report middle finger goes out climate change and has become as main environmental problem
One of.Climate change is mainly reflected in global seismic temperature and the rising of ocean temperature, South Pole glacial ablation, the time space division of precipitation
The aspects such as the change of cloth change and extreme weather events occurrence frequency and intensity.Water resource is in hydrologic cycle and atmospheric circulation
Primary factor, temperature that climate change causes raises, changes radiation and atmospheric circulation, the relative humidity on earth's surface, change
The spatial-temporal distribution characteristic of precipitation and intensity, will directly or indirectly affect the water cycle processes such as evaporation, runoff.The change of water cycle process
Change the Transport And Transformation mechanism further affecting point source, area source pollutants.Multiple pollutant is migrated by water cycle process
Converting, new Water Circulation Characteristic can expand the migration circle of pollutant further, due to atmosphere dried wet deposition, soil pollution of area source
The factors such as thing is serious, the accumulation of solid waste, these pollutant participate in water by the approach such as precipitation and rainwash and circulate
During and diffusive migration scope.Therefore, the relation between research surface water quality and climate change has great importance.
Chinese scholars research at present is more biased towards the climate change impact on water resources quantity, to surface water quality and climate change
Response aspect research contents relatively fewer, but normality climatic elements such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation, sunshine, radiation, wind speed
Change, although directly surface water quality can not be produced and significantly change, but due to long cumulative effect, be circulated by water
Surface water quality is indirectly produced and adversely affects by process.Climate change can cause the time-space resalved technique of precipitation, partly
District's precipitation has and dramatically increases, and the increase of precipitation can make the material such as pollutant and pathogenic bacteria in more earth's surface and air enter water
Body, during 1948 to 1994 years, Curriero etc. have studied 548 parts wherein to be had by water-borne disease notification, discovery
68% is relevant with precipitation intensity change.The researchs such as the impact on water body that raises of water temperature shows many aspects, Huang show water
Temperature has influence on the many aspects such as the density of water, surface tension, viscosity, and Hao Xiu equality research shows that water temperature rising can reduce water body
In dissolved oxygen, temperature the most often raises 3 DEG C, and saturated dissolved oxygen amount can reduce 10%, can cause aquatile when dissolved oxygen is too low
Death, destroys normal Ecology balance.Radiation level change can cause some pollutant toxicity in water body to change,
Macdonald etc. are experimentally confirmed the pollutant of such as multiring aromatic hydrocarbon and are exposed in ultraviolet radiation, cause aquatile dirty
Dye increases the weight of.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is that the deficiency of the impact analysis method for existing Climate Change on Surface Water matter, proposes
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change.The method is based on climatic model estimation results and SWAT model, logical
Cross and different variations in temperature sights and changes and precipitation sight are set, the climate change factor pair surface water quality such as analog temperature and precipitation
The impact of change, and then analyze the response relation of earth's surface change of water quality and climate change.
To achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is: the response to climate change of a kind of surface water quality
Analysis method, method step is as follows,
Step one Future Climate Change factor change Trend Prediction
1) climatic model fitness-for-service assessment
Choose international CGCM compare five kinds of climatic model: GFDL-ESM2M that the 5th stage (CMIP5) of plan provides,
HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, simulate respectively RCP2.6, RCP4.5,
Precipitation under tri-kinds of representative emissions inventory of RCP8.5, after calibration and NO emissions reduction, contrasts with measured value, according to meter
Relative error, root-mean-square error and the correlation coefficient eigenvalue value result calculated, and each pattern simulation variation tendency, total score
Analysis and the Simulation of Precipitation ability of assessment Different climate pattern.
2) climatic model correction
Based on above-mentioned analysis result, choose the relatively good climatic model of analog result and do ensemble average, carry out weather mould
Formula correction.
3) following precipitation is estimated
According to revised climatic model estimation results, survey region precipitation in future is simulated, obtains following fall
The water yield and the variation tendency of annual precipitation.
Step 2 SWAT model construction and calibration
1) mode input data prepare and formatting processes
SWAT model in order to make analog result more accurate, need the data of input have land use pattern, soil types,
Meteorological condition, the water quality of river etc. such as temperature rainfall, form needs just can be input in model after standardization, its
Middle digital elevation model figure, soil type map, land use pattern figure need to use ArcGIS to use GRID or shp form to generate
Topography, and the meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature and water quality data etc. typically generate input file with dbf form, concrete form is shown in
Following table.
Table 1 SWAT mode input data and form
2) model calibration and checking
1. model-evaluation index is determined
Choose relative error (Re), the coefficient of determination (R2) and three indexs use of Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency factor (Ens)
The suitability in evaluation model.According to mock standard, analog result and measured value error should be less than 20%, coefficient of determination R2It is more than
0.6 and Ens is more than 0.5, and when analog result meets conditions above, analog result just may be used.
2. parameters sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis is the assessment parameters influence degree to analog result, the parameter that prioritizing selection influence degree is big
It is adjusted.SWAT model sensitivity analysis is that model adjusts ginseng and the premise of verification and element task.Carry out according to analog result
After sensitivity analysis, from the numerous parameter of SWAT model, screen sensitivity relatively high parameter, preferentially carry out parameter calibration.
3. model calibration
Based on above-mentioned steps, model is calibrated and verifies.
Step 3 total nitrogen, total phosphorus calculate
According to SWAT model to the Transport And Transformation process of non-point pollution and principle, Non-point Source Pollutants can be carried out mould
Intending, the object of simulation is mainly nitrogen element and P elements loading, owing to SWAT model is carrying out mould to river course total nitrogen and total phosphorus
During plan, nitrogen and phosphorus being divided into different shape and is circulated conversion, what simulation obtained is nitrogen and the load of phosphorus, the total nitrogen of various form
Lower formula is used to calculate with total phosphorus load amount:
TN=ORGN_OUT+NO3_OUT+NH4_OUT+NO2_OUT (1)
In formula: TN is total nitrogen load；ORGN_OUT is organic nitrogen load；NO3_ OUT is nitrate nitrogen load；NH4_ OUT is ammonia
State nitrogen load；NO2_ OUT is nitrite nitrogen load.
TP=ORGP_OUT+MINP_OUT (2)
In formula: TP is total phosphorus load；ORGP_OUT is organophosphor load；MINP_OUT is mineral phosphorus load.
The response to climate change of the step 4 surface water quality
Based on climatic model estimation results and the SWAT model calibrated, different variations in temperature sights is set and precipitation becomes
Change sight, the impact of the climate change factor pair change of water quality such as analog temperature and precipitation.
As preferably, in step one, when carrying out climatic model fitness-for-service assessment, representative greenhouse gas concentration path
(RCPs) it is that IPCC proposes new emissions inventory, by weather, air, Carbon cycle in the 5th assessment report of issue in 2011
Estimate and discharge and social economy's sight combines, provide relatively reliable background for climatic model.According to radiation by
High to Low it is divided into four kinds of sights: RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6.Concrete overview such as following table:
Table 2 RCPs sight overview
As preferably, in step one, when carrying out climatic model fitness-for-service assessment, due to the global climate model gas to region
Wait factor change and describe lack of resolution, in Regional climate change is studied, need to carry out NO emissions reduction process for this, use statistics
NO emissions reduction method, in conjunction with bilinear interpolation, is interpolated into output data unification on the grid of 0.5 ° × 0.5 °, and divides based on probability
The statistic bias that cloth is carried out is modified.
As preferably, in step one, when carrying out climatic model fitness-for-service assessment, global climate model data are passed through
ArcGIS is converted into space lattice, converts from large scale climatic information and is extracted as regional scale, the climatic model that will extract
Result is according to IDW interpolation calculation monthly average precipitation.Through calibration and GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-of NO emissions reduction
Five patterns of CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M respectively under different RCPs sights statistical simulation precipitation,
Multi-mode ensemble average precipitation result, is analyzed it with measured value.
As preferably, in step 2, model calibration uses the professional SWAT model parameter that SWAT model official website provides
Calibration and regulation instrument SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Programs), first arrange SWAT-CUP
The relevant parameter run, including SWAT model Preliminary Simulation, parameter, the scope of Parameters variation of main calibration, meets condition
Then measuring runoff data in survey region are inputted as checking in SWAT-CUP by evaluation criterion, maximum analog number of times etc.,
The principle of SWAT-CUP is that regulation parameter is allowing arbitrarily value in the range of change to carry out the optimization of parameter, after every suboptimization
Parameter is simulated after automatically calling SWAT model.The analogue value and measured value will contrast each time, and calculate every evaluation and refer to
Mark, i.e. completes once to adjust ginseng, terminates whether post-evaluation indices meets research needs at the number realization set, when index is tied
When fruit can not meet, it is continuing with the checking of SWAT-CUP circulation in newly obtained parameters, until parameter reaches reasonable value.
Compared with prior art, it is an advantage of the current invention that: the present invention estimates based on Future Climate, SWAT hydrological model and
Statistical analysis technique, by arranging different variations in temperature sights and changes and precipitation sight, the weather such as analog temperature and precipitation becomes
Change the impact of factor pair surface water quality change, can effectively analyze the response relation of earth's surface change of water quality and climate change, with
Carry out the climate change simulation study to water quality impact based on SWAT hydrological model, establish climate change and change of water quality it
Between response relation, the surface water quality response analysis to climate change can be carried out.Can be widely applied to study surface water quality pair
The response of climate change, is particularly well-suited to the response analysis to climate change of the Hetao area surface water quality.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the surface water quality response analysis method flow chart to climate change；
Fig. 2 is that after revising under the RCP8.5 sight of the Hetao area, analog result contrasts with actual measurement monthly total precipitation；
Fig. 3 is total nitrogen load amount analog result month by month under the different temperatures sight of the Hetao area；
Fig. 4 is total phosphorus load amount analog result month by month under the different temperatures sight of the Hetao area；
Fig. 5 is total nitrogen load amount analog result month by month under the different precipitation sight of the Hetao area；
Fig. 6 is total phosphorus load amount analog result month by month under the different precipitation sight of the Hetao area.
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described below.
Embodiment: see Fig. 1, a kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, chooses irrigation system flourishing
The Hetao area carry out empirical research, method step is as follows:
(1) Future Climate Change factor change Trend Prediction
1) climatic model fitness-for-service assessment
Choose international CGCM compare five kinds of climatic model: GFDL-ESM2M that the 5th stage (CMIP5) of plan provides,
HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, simulate respectively RCP2.6, RCP4.5,
Precipitation under tri-kinds of representative emissions inventory of RCP8.5, after calibration and NO emissions reduction, contrasts with measured value, according to meter
Relative error, root-mean-square error and the correlation coefficient eigenvalue value result calculated, and each pattern simulation variation tendency, total score
Analysis and the Simulation of Precipitation ability of assessment Different climate pattern.
Hetao area 2001-2011 many mean annual precipitations measured value sees table 3, Mei Gemo with the comparing result of the analogue value
Intend result and be shown in Table 4 with the eigenvalue statistical result surveying precipitation.Result shows, precipitation is respectively provided with necessarily by 5 climatic models
Analog capability, but dependency is strong on the whole, correlation coefficient is concentrated mainly between 0.6-0.8, most simulation knots
Fruit is higher than measured value, and comparison in difference is obvious, therefore, need to be modified pattern.
Table 3 Hetao area precipitation measured value and the analogue value (the many annuals of 2001-2011)
The statistical characteristics result that table 4 2001-2011 Different climate pattern simulation precipitation contrasts with actual measurement precipitation
2) climatic model correction
Based on above-mentioned analysis result, choose the relatively good climatic model of analog result and do ensemble average, carry out weather mould
Formula correction.
According to relative error, root-mean-square error and correlation coefficient eigenvalue value result, and each pattern simulation variation tendency,
The comprehensive Simulation of Precipitation ability analyzed and assess Different climate pattern, it is found that analog result is relatively good: RCP8.5
HadGEM2-ES and NorESM1-M under sight.Select the two pattern do ensemble average, by revised analog result continue with
Measured value is analyzed, it appeared that the degree of fluctuation step-down of revised analog result precipitation, variation tendency is basic
Keeping consistent, correlation coefficient reaches 0.806, belongs to highly linear and is correlated with, and analog result is sufficiently close to measured value, relative error
Only 3.61%, substantially conform to actual precipitation event, revised climatic model may be used for Hetao area precipitation in future and estimates,
See table 5 and Fig. 2.
The statistical characteristics result that table 5 ensemble average pattern simulation precipitation contrasts with actual measurement precipitation
3) following precipitation is estimated
According to revised climatic model estimation results, survey region precipitation in future is simulated, obtains following fall
The water yield and the variation tendency of annual precipitation.
Hetao area precipitation in future estimation results shows, monthly mean rainfall is 17.4mm, compares history monthly average precipitation
Amount 25.7mm, has downward trend；History Summer Precipitation accounts for annual the total precipitation 60.7%, following Summer Precipitation proportion
Rising to 66.9%, precipitation is more concentrated on summer；From the point of view of year precipitation, the border fluctuation of precipitation year is big, at most close to 300mm,
Minimum less than 150mm, frequency and intensity that heavy rain occurs change.
(2) SWAT model construction and calibration
1) mode input data prepare and formatting processes
SWAT model in order to make analog result more accurate, need the data of input have land use pattern, soil types,
Meteorological condition, the water quality of river etc. such as temperature rainfall, form needs just can be input in model after standardization, its
Middle digital elevation model figure, soil type map, land use pattern figure need to use ArcGIS to use GRID or shp form to generate
Topography, and the meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature and water quality data etc. typically generate input file with dbf form, concrete form is shown in
Following table.
Table 1 SWAT mode input data and form
Terrain data, from the dem data altitude data of STRM30 rice resolution, carries out watershed partitioning, river according to DEM
The generation of net water system；Land use data needs to be divided into 6 types according to model: arable land, forest land, meadow, waters, town and country work
Ore deposit residential land and Unutilized Energy；Soil data includes soil types and soil physico-chemical property, and soil types is worked as according to inquiry
Ground soil data data obtains, and soil physico-chemical property obtains including that soil layering, Soil Hydrological divide according to calculating and inspection information
The volume of data such as group, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil particle diameter composition；Meteorological data is according to the Hetao area and 13 meteorological site of periphery
Test day by day data, including precipitation, temperature, radiation, humidity and wind speed.
2) model calibration and checking
1. model-evaluation index is determined
Choose relative error (Re), the coefficient of determination (R2) and three indexs use of Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency factor (Ens)
The suitability in evaluation model.According to mock standard, analog result and measured value error should be less than 20%, coefficient of determination R2It is more than
0.6 and Ens is more than 0.5, and when analog result meets conditions above, analog result just may be used.
2. parameters sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis is the assessment parameters influence degree to analog result, the parameter that prioritizing selection influence degree is big
It is adjusted.SWAT model sensitivity analysis is that model adjusts ginseng and the premise of verification and element task.Carry out according to analog result
After sensitivity analysis, from the numerous parameter of SWAT model, screen sensitivity relatively high parameter, preferentially carry out parameter calibration.
According to 10 parameters most sensitive during having obtained Hetao area SWAT modeling after sensitivity analysis, connecing
Regulate this 10 parameters based on advantage during the tune ginseng got off, utilize SWAT-CUP to carry out adjusting ginseng process, select with this
10 parameters are that the scope mainly regulating parameter and each Parameters variation is calibrated, and regulation parameter is in the scope allowing change
Interior arbitrarily value carries out the optimization of parameter, and the parameter after every suboptimization is simulated after automatically calling SWAT model, until parameter
Reach reasonable value.After parameter regulation process terminates, calculate every evaluation index, analyze whether SWAT model is applicable to river bend ground
District.
Table 6 sensitivity analysis parameter marshalling
3. model calibration
Based on above-mentioned steps, model is calibrated and verifies.Result shows, Hetao area simulation monthly runoff and actual measurement
The variation tendency of monthly runoff is basically identical, and analog result has reached the evaluation criterion of model, and SWAT model can apply to river
Set area runoff, the long-term sequence simulation of ammonia nitrogen.Hetao area monthly runoff rate is periodically and the analog result of checking phase and reality
Measured value each evaluation index value is shown in Table 7.
Table 7 Hetao area monthly runoff Simulation evaluation index
(3) total nitrogen, total phosphorus calculate
According to SWAT model to the Transport And Transformation process of non-point pollution and principle, Non-point Source Pollutants can be carried out mould
Intending, the object of simulation is mainly nitrogen element and P elements loading, owing to SWAT model is carrying out mould to river course total nitrogen and total phosphorus
During plan, nitrogen and phosphorus being divided into different shape and is circulated conversion, what simulation obtained is nitrogen and the load of phosphorus, the total nitrogen of various form
Lower formula is used to calculate with total phosphorus load amount:
TN=ORGN_OUT+NO3_OUT+NH4_OUT+NO2_OUT (1)
In formula: TN is total nitrogen load；ORGN_OUT is organic nitrogen load；NO3_ OUT is nitrate nitrogen load；NH4_ OUT is ammonia
State nitrogen load；NO2_ OUT is nitrite nitrogen load.
TP=ORGP_OUT+MINP_OUT (2)
In formula: TP is total phosphorus load；ORGP_OUT is organophosphor load；MINP_OUT is mineral phosphorus load.
(4) surface water quality response to climate change
Based on climatic model estimation results and the SWAT model calibrated, different variations in temperature sights is set and precipitation becomes
Change sight, the impact of the climate change factor pair change of water quality such as analog temperature and precipitation.
1) variations in temperature sight
In the case of other climatic factor's conditions are constant, temperature increases by 1 DEG C, 2 DEG C ,-1 DEG C on the basis of original respectively
With-2 DEG C, the selection of time of simulation is 1980-2010, the analog result of nitrogen and phosphorus load is carried out under normal temperature sight
Contrast.Under the different temperatures sight of the Hetao area, total nitrogen and total phosphorus load amount analog result see Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 respectively month by month.
Result shows, no matter is that temperature is raised and lowered, and the change to water body nitrogen, phosphorus load all creates certain shadow
Ring, but do not show notable Changing Pattern.Pollute and be concentrated mainly on the 6-9 month the most serious period, the moon that pollutant increase
Part mainly 6, July, other Monthly changes are inconspicuous.Nitrogen P elements in water body is strictly had significantly by variations in temperature
Impact, but the change between temperature and pollutant burden amount does not show quantitative dependency, and the change of Various Seasonal is also
Different, the most significantly feature be that summer temp is higher, precipitation and runoff bigger time, pollutant change is the most obvious.
2) changes and precipitation sight
In the case of other climatic factors are constant, precipitation increases by 10%, 20% on the basis of original respectively and reduces
10%, 20%, the selection of time of simulation is 1980-2010, by under the analog result of nitrogen and phosphorus load and normal temperature sight
Contrast.Under the different precipitation sight of the Hetao area, total nitrogen and total phosphorus load amount analog result see Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 month by month.
Result shows, the change of precipitation is very notable on the impact of nitrogen and phosphorus load, when precipitation enhancement, and nitrogen and the load of phosphorus
Amount increases, and during decrease in precipitation, the loading of nitrogen and phosphorus also substantially reduces, and changes and precipitation amount and nitrogen and phosphorus load amount are substantially proportional to close
System.From the time, total nitrogen is concentrated mainly on and pollutes the 6-10 month the most seriously, and summer is also that nitrogen content increases most seasons；Always
Phosphorus is concentrated mainly on equally and pollutes the 7-9 month at most, particularly pollutes content July not only most, and increases the most notable,
And other months are of reduced contamination；This is close with Hetao area climate relationship, and local precipitation Tendency analysis is uneven, and summer is rainy,
Winter drying is short of rain, and precipitation concentrates on 6～JIUYUE.
The method of the present invention is based on climatic model estimation results and SWAT model, by arranging different variations in temperature sights
With changes and precipitation sight, the impact of the climate change factor pair surface water quality such as analog temperature and precipitation change.Above-mentioned conclusion explanation
The method utilizing the present invention to propose can accurately analyze the response relation of earth's surface change of water quality and climate change, can be next
The control measures of step are formulated provides auxiliary to support, and can be applicable in the item analysis of reality.
Above a kind of surface water quality provided by the present invention is carried out detailed Jie to the response analysis method of climate change
Continuing, principle and the embodiment of the present invention are set forth by specific case used herein, and the explanation of above example is only
It is the method and core concept thereof being adapted to assist in and understanding the present invention；Simultaneously for one of ordinary skill in the art, according to this
Bright thought, the most all will change, and change and improvement to the present invention will be can
Can, without the spirit and scope beyond accessory claim defined, in sum, this specification content should not be construed as
Limitation of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. the surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: method step is as follows,
Step one Future Climate Change factor change Trend Prediction
1) climatic model fitness-for-service assessment
Choose international CGCM compare five kinds of climatic model: GFDL-ESM2M that plan the 5th stage CMIP5 provides,
HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, simulate respectively RCP2.6, RCP4.5,
Precipitation under tri-kinds of representative emissions inventory of RCP8.5, after calibration and NO emissions reduction, contrasts with measured value, according to meter
Relative error, root-mean-square error and the correlation coefficient eigenvalue value result calculated, and each pattern simulation variation tendency, total score
Analysis and the Simulation of Precipitation ability of assessment Different climate pattern；
2) climatic model correction
Based on above-mentioned analysis result, choose the relatively good climatic model of analog result and do ensemble average, carry out climatic model and repair
Just；
3) following precipitation is estimated
According to revised climatic model estimation results, survey region precipitation in future is simulated, obtains following precipitation
Variation tendency with annual precipitation；
Step 2 SWAT model construction and calibration
1) mode input data prepare and formatting processes
Input land use pattern, soil types, temperature rainfall meteorological condition, water quality data, data form need through
It is input in model after standardization；
2) model calibration and checking
1. model-evaluation index is determined
Choose relative error Re, coefficient of determination R2It is evaluated model with tri-indexs of Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency factor Ens
The suitability, according to mock standard, analog result and measured value error should be less than 20%, coefficient of determination R2More than 0.6 and Ens is big
In 0.5, when analog result meets conditions above, analog result just may be used；
2. parameters sensitivity analysis
After carrying out sensitivity analysis according to analog result, from the numerous parameter of SWAT model, screen sensitivity relatively high parameter, preferentially
Carry out parameter calibration；
3. model calibration
Based on above-mentioned steps, model is calibrated and verifies；
Step 3 total nitrogen, total phosphorus calculate
According to SWAT model to the Transport And Transformation process of non-point pollution and principle, Non-point Source Pollutants is simulated, simulation
Object be mainly nitrogen element and P elements loading, what simulation obtained is nitrogen and the load of phosphorus of various form, to total nitrogen and
Total phosphorus load amount calculates；
(4) surface water quality response to climate change
Based on climatic model estimation results and the SWAT model calibrated, different variations in temperature sights and changes and precipitation feelings are set
Scape, the impact of the climate change factor pair change of water quality such as analog temperature and precipitation.
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: step one
In, when carrying out climatic model fitness-for-service assessment, representative greenhouse gas concentration path RCPs is that IPCC issued in 2011
Five assessment reports propose new emissions inventory, weather, air, Carbon cycle is estimated and discharges and social economy's sight is tied mutually
Close, be divided into four kinds of sights from high to low according to radiating: RCP8.5, RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6.
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: step one
In, when carrying out climatic model fitness-for-service assessment, in Regional climate change is studied, need to carry out NO emissions reduction process, use statistics fall
Two time scales approach, in conjunction with bilinear interpolation, is interpolated into output data unification on the grid of 0.5 ° × 0.5 °, and based on probability distribution
The statistic bias carried out is modified.
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: step one
In, when carrying out climatic model fitness-for-service assessment, global climate model data are converted into space lattice by ArcGIS, from big chi
Degree climatic information converts and is extracted as regional scale, the climatic model result extracted is dropped according to IDW interpolation calculation monthly average
Water, through calibration and the GFDL-ESM2M of NO emissions reduction, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM,
Five patterns of NorESM1-M statistical simulation precipitation, multi-mode ensemble average precipitation knot under different RCPs sights respectively
Really, it is analyzed with measured value.
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: step 2
In, model calibration uses the calibration of professional SWAT model parameter and regulation instrument SWAT-CUP that SWAT model official provides, first
The relevant parameter that SWAT-CUP runs is set, including SWAT model Preliminary Simulation, the parameter of main calibration, the model of Parameters variation
Enclose, meet the evaluation criterion of condition, maximum analog number of times, then by measuring runoff data input SWAT-CUP in survey region
As checking, the parameter after every suboptimization is simulated after automatically calling SWAT model, will the analogue value enter with measured value each time
Row contrast, calculates every evaluation index, i.e. completes once to adjust ginseng, whether terminates post-evaluation indices at the number realization set
Meet research needs, when index result can not meet, be continuing with the checking of SWAT-CUP circulation in newly obtained parameters,
Until parameter reaches reasonable value.
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: step 2
In, when processing input data preparation and formatting, digital elevation model figure, soil type map, land use pattern figure need
Use ArcGIS to use GRID or shp form to generate topography, and the meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature and water quality data etc. typically with
Dbf form generates input file.
A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change, it is characterised in that: step 3
In, total nitrogen and total phosphorus load amount use lower formula to calculate:
TN=ORGN_OUT+NO3_OUT+NH4_OUT+NO2_OUT (1)
In formula: TN is total nitrogen load；ORGN_OUT is organic nitrogen load；NO3_ OUT is nitrate nitrogen load；NH4_ OUT is ammoniacal nitrogen
Load；NO2_ OUT is nitrite nitrogen load；
TP=ORGP_OUT+MINP_OUT (2)
In formula: TP is total phosphorus load；ORGP_OUT is organophosphor load；MINP_OUT is mineral phosphorus load.
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