CN106127408A - Road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to technical field of modern transportation, particularly relate to road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree.The method includes: construct accident tree based on road traffic accident；Determine according to described accident tree and affect minimal cut set or the minimum path sets of described traffic safety accident；Determine the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree；Asking for the top event probability of described accident tree with described elementary event probability of happening or described minimum path sets with described elementary event probability of happening based on described minimal cut set, wherein, described top event is road traffic accident；According to described top event probability, the safe condition of described road is evaluated.The embodiment of the present invention enriches road safety status evaluation method, provides significant guidance for road safety assessment, makes traffic accident analysis reach the effect got twice the result with half the effort.
Description
[technical field]
The present invention relates to technical field of modern transportation, particularly relate to road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree.
[background technology]
Event tree analysis (Fault Tree Analysis, FTA) is most important quantitative analysis side in System Safety Analysis
One of method, is widely used in every field.Accident tree is a kind of to represent patrolling of event of failure occurrence cause and logical relation thereof
Collecting tree graph, its analysis can be qualitatively, it is also possible to being quantitative, its theoretical basis is Boolean algebra, and it not only can provide
The method of solution problem, more can provide a thinking solving security of system problem.
Road safety situation is evaluated the effective means being to prevent road traffic accident from occurring, existing road safety
Seldom in view of carrying out road safety status evaluation based on FTA in status evaluation method.
[summary of the invention]
The embodiment of the present invention to solve the technical problem that and to be to provide a kind of road safety status evaluation side based on accident tree
Method, provides for road safety assessment and instructs.
Embodiments provide a kind of road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree, comprise the following steps:
Accident tree is constructed based on road traffic accident；
Determine according to described accident tree and affect minimal cut set or the minimum path sets of described traffic safety accident；
Determine the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree；
Based on described minimal cut set and described elementary event probability of happening or described minimum path sets and described elementary event
Probability of happening asks for the top event probability of described accident tree, and wherein, described top event is road traffic accident；
According to described top event probability, the safe condition of described road is evaluated.
In certain embodiments, described based on road traffic accident structure accident tree include:
When there is road traffic accident, described generation road traffic accident is defined as top event；
Determine that intermediate event, described intermediate event include anthropic factor and non-artificial factor according to described top event；
Elementary event is determined according to described intermediate event, when described intermediate event is anthropic factor, described elementary event
For drive be drunk driving or/and fatigue driving, passenger disturb drivings, passerby to violate the traffic regulations, driver in a hurry in one or
Multiple, when described intermediate event is non-anthropic factor, described elementary event is vehicle trouble, traffic sign and marked disappearance, friendship
Logical identifier marking is wrong, identifier marking arranges the diseases such as unreasonable, the longitudinal gradient gradient is excessive, vertical curve frequent exchange, pit and causes
Poor flatness, road vehicles " channel effect " that produce, barrier clear up the most in time, traffic sign and marked be blocked, protect
And isolation facility lost efficacy, glare screen lacks, identifier marking position arranges unreasonable, road construction and maintenance and becomes to lane width
Narrow, road construction and maintenance to track quantity reduce, shoulder width is not enough, vehicle drops, and article, dense fog, snowfall and accumulated snow cause
" snow blindness " phenomenon, rainfall, tunnel electromechanical facility damage, tunnel monitoring facility lost efficacy, straight line long be easily generated hypervelocity and tired,
Horizontal curve superelevation and radius is little, bend lacks easement curve, rainfall, snowfall, impeded drainage, pavement roughness, without guardrail, special
Section takes safeguard procedures, icy on road, road snow, road surface to produce in moisture film, road surface building stones unity and coherence in writing unreasonable structure
One or more；
Determine the logical relation between described top event, intermediate event and elementary event, and according to described top event, centre
Logical relation structure accident tree between event and elementary event.
In certain embodiments, described anthropic factor is that car takes advantage of human behavior and/or passerby's interference.
In certain embodiments, described non-artificial factor be that road safety present situation defect, road alignment be poor, horizontal alignment not
Rationally, sighting distance deficiency, transverse section short of width, pavement behavior is severe, pavement roughness, road surface slippery situation, pavement skid resistance condition not
Foot, surface gathered water, road obstacle, barrier occur, trackside barrier enters running region, transport information obtains smooth, friendship
Logical mark cannot identification, poor visibility, traffic insurance facility defect, tunnel electromechanical facility lost efficacy in one or more.
In certain embodiments, described logical relation is and door or or the logical relation of door foundation.
In certain embodiments, described determine according to described accident tree affect the minimal cut of described traffic safety accident
Collection includes:
According to described accident tree, close according to the logic of described top event with described intermediate event from described top event
System, and the structure function of the logical relation described accident tree of structure of described intermediate event and described elementary event；
Restrain according to Boolean algebra elementary operation, described structure function is carried out abbreviation；
Described structure function after abbreviation obtains described minimal cut set by conclusion.
In certain embodiments, the minimum path sets that described minimum path sets obtains after being described minimal cut set dualistic transformation.
In certain embodiments, described determine that the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree is for cause accident by statistics
The data occurred, according to described data calculated elementary event probability of happening.
In certain embodiments, described determine that the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree is for obtain by laboratory observation
Elementary event probability of happening.
The embodiment of the present invention is by constructing the accident tree of certain vehicle accident, and minimal cut set based on this accident tree and base
Present event probability of happening or minimum path sets have asked for, with elementary event probability of happening, the probability that this accident tree top event occurs, logical
Crossing top event probability and carry out road safety status evaluation, compared with prior art, the present invention enriches road safety situation
Evaluation methodology, provides significant guidance for road safety assessment.
[accompanying drawing explanation]
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree that the embodiment of the present invention provides；
Fig. 2 is the structure chart of a kind of accident tree that the embodiment of the present invention provides；
Fig. 3 is the structure chart of the another kind of accident tree that the embodiment of the present invention provides.
[detailed description of the invention]
In order to make the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, right
The present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, not
For limiting the present invention.
As long as additionally, technical characteristic involved in each embodiment of invention described below is the most not
The conflict of composition just can be mutually combined.
Embodiment:
As it is shown in figure 1, embodiments provide a kind of road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree, the party
Method includes step S11-S14:
S11, based on road traffic accident construct accident tree.
In embodiments of the present invention, include based on road traffic accident structure accident tree:
When there is road traffic accident, described generation road traffic accident is defined as top event；
Determine that intermediate event, described intermediate event include anthropic factor and non-artificial factor according to described top event；
Elementary event is determined according to described intermediate event, when described intermediate event is anthropic factor, described elementary event
For drive be drunk driving or/and fatigue driving, passenger disturb drivings, passerby to violate the traffic regulations, driver in a hurry in one or
Multiple, when described intermediate event is non-anthropic factor, described elementary event is vehicle trouble, traffic sign and marked disappearance, friendship
Logical identifier marking is wrong, identifier marking arranges the diseases such as unreasonable, the longitudinal gradient gradient is excessive, vertical curve frequent exchange, pit and causes
Poor flatness, road vehicles " channel effect " that produce, barrier clear up the most in time, traffic sign and marked be blocked, protect
And isolation facility lost efficacy, glare screen lacks, identifier marking position arranges unreasonable, road construction and maintenance and becomes to lane width
Narrow, road construction and maintenance to track quantity reduce, shoulder width is not enough, vehicle drops, and article, dense fog, snowfall and accumulated snow cause
" snow blindness " phenomenon, rainfall, tunnel electromechanical facility damage, tunnel monitoring facility lost efficacy, straight line long be easily generated hypervelocity and tired,
Horizontal curve superelevation and radius is little, bend lacks easement curve, rainfall, snowfall, impeded drainage, pavement roughness, without guardrail, special
Section takes safeguard procedures, icy on road, road snow, road surface to produce in moisture film, road surface building stones unity and coherence in writing unreasonable structure
One or more；
Determine the logical relation between described top event, intermediate event and elementary event, and according to described top event, centre
Logical relation structure accident tree between event and elementary event.Wherein, described logical relation is and door or or door foundation
Logical relation.
In embodiments of the present invention, described anthropic factor is that car takes advantage of human behavior and/or passerby's interference.Described non-artificial because of
Element is road safety present situation defect, road alignment is poor, horizontal alignment is unreasonable, sighting distance is not enough, transverse section short of width, road surface shape
Condition is severe, pavement roughness, road surface slippery situation, pavement skid resistance condition deficiency, surface gathered water, road obstacle, barrier occur, road
Side barrier enters running region, transport information obtains freely, traffic signs cannot identification, poor visibility, traffic insurance
One or more in the inefficacy of facility defect, tunnel electromechanical facility.
As in figure 2 it is shown, the embodiment of the present invention gives belongs to certain traffic safety thing based on what said method constructed
Therefore the concrete structure figure of accident tree.
S12, determine according to described accident tree and affect minimal cut set or the minimum path sets of described traffic safety accident.
In embodiments of the present invention, described determine that the minimal cut set affecting described traffic safety accident includes: according to
Described accident tree, from described top event according to the logical relation of described top event Yu described intermediate event, and described in
Between the logical relation of event and described elementary event construct the structure function of described accident tree；According to Boolean algebra elementary operation
Rule, carries out abbreviation to described structure function；Described structure function after abbreviation obtains described minimal cut set by conclusion.At this
In bright embodiment, described minimum path sets is the minimum path sets obtained after described minimal cut set dualistic transformation.
Such as, seek minimal cut set and the minimum path sets of accident tree as shown in Figure 3, specifically,
T=M1M2
=(M3+M4)(X5+X6+X7)
=[(X1+X2)+X3X4](X5+X6+X7)
=X1X5+X1X6+X1X7+X2X5+X2X6+X2X7+X3X4X5+X3X4X6+X3X4X7
Obtain 9 minimal cut sets, be respectively as follows: G1={ X1,X5}；G2={ X1,X6}；G3={ X1,X7}；G4={ X2,X5}；G5
={ X2,X6}；G6={ X2,X7}；G7={ X3,X4,X5}；G8={ X3,X4,X6}；G9={ X3,X4,X7}。
Seeking described minimum path sets is the duality utilizing described minimum path sets with described minimal cut set, first makes and such as figure
The Successful Tree of accident tree antithesis shown in 3, i.e. will replace with disjunction gate " with door " in original accident tree, and disjunction gate replaces with
" with door ", all kinds of events replace to not occur, and then seek minimum path sets by Boolean algebra abbreviation method, specifically,
Obtain 3 minimum path sets, be respectively as follows: P1={ X1,X2,X3}；P={X1,X2,X4}；P={X5,X6,X7}。
In embodiments of the present invention, described minimal cut set is the set of the bottom line elementary event that top event occurs
(for accident analysis, correspondence has accident tree)；Described minimum path sets be top event occur necessary MIN substantially
The set (for safety analysis, to there being Successful Tree) of event.Top event (i.e. traffic safety thing is mainly asked in quantitative analysis
Therefore) probability of happening.In event tree analysis, minimal cut (footpath) collection occupies very important status, it is considered that, accident tree
Minimal cut set is the most, and the system that illustrates the most dangerous (i.e. generation vehicle accident probability is the biggest), the minimum path sets of accident tree is the most, explanation
System the safest (probability that vehicle accident i.e. occurs is the least).Skilled grasp also uses minimal cut set and minimum path sets, energy flexibly
Traffic accident analysis is made to reach the effect got twice the result with half the effort.
S13, determine the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree.
In embodiments of the present invention, described determine that the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree is for cause thing by statistics
Therefore occur data, according to described data calculated elementary event probability of happening or by laboratory observation obtain basic
Event occurrence rate.
Wherein, the data causing accident to occur described in include that annual vehicle accident occurs sum, causes the former of vehicle accident
Because of (such as hypervelocity, fatigue driving, vehicle trouble, weather etc.), road alignment data etc..The described base obtained by laboratory observation
Present event probability of happening refers generally to simulate the contingency occurrence probability obtained by the factors such as people, car, road and environment carry out experiment test.
S14, based on described minimal cut set and described elementary event probability of happening or described minimum path sets with described substantially
Event occurrence rate asks for the top event probability of described accident tree, and wherein, described top event is road traffic accident.
In embodiments of the present invention, utilizing described minimal cut set to calculate top event probability of happening, its top event occurs
Probability calculation formula be:
Wherein, qiProbability of happening for i-th elementary event；R is the ordinal number of minimal cut set；K is the number of minimal cut set；For asking probability and symbol；∏ is the symbol seeking product of probability.
In embodiments of the present invention, utilizing described minimum path sets to calculate top event probability of happening, its top event occurs
Probability calculation formula be:
Wherein, qi is the probability of happening of i-th elementary event；J is the ordinal number of minimum path sets；P is the number of minimum path sets；For asking probability and symbol；∏ is the symbol seeking product of probability.
It should be noted that during solving described top event probability of happening, if described minimal cut set and minimum
Footpath is concentrated with repeated events, needs to remove this repeated events.
S15, according to described top event probability, the safe condition of described road is evaluated.
In embodiments of the present invention, by the probability of happening of described top event that will finally get and predetermined desired value
Whether (the such as receptible probability of happening of society) compares, seeing in the range of accepting, if exceeding acceptable probit, then needing to adopt
Take corrective measure, make the probability that vehicle accident occurs decline, be analyzed checking by accident tree the most again, utilize minimal cut set and
Minimum path sets calculates top event probability, and then carries out quantitative analysis again.Thus, by the safe condition of described road is entered
Row detection, is finally reached the purpose making vehicle accident probability of happening reduce.
Embodiments providing a kind of road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree, the method is by structure
The accident tree of certain vehicle accident, and minimal cut set based on this accident tree and elementary event probability of happening or minimum path sets with
Elementary event probability of happening asks for the probability that this accident tree top event occurs, and carries out road safety shape by top event probability
Condition is evaluated, and compared with prior art, the embodiment of the present invention enriches road safety status evaluation method, carries for road safety assessment
Supply significant guidance, made traffic accident analysis reach the effect got twice the result with half the effort.
The foregoing is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, not in order to limit the present invention, all essences in the present invention
Any amendment, equivalent and the improvement etc. made within god and principle, should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. road safety status evaluation method based on accident tree, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Accident tree is constructed based on road traffic accident；
Determine according to described accident tree and affect minimal cut set or the minimum path sets of described traffic safety accident；
Determine the elementary event probability of happening of described accident tree；
Occur with described elementary event with described elementary event probability of happening or described minimum path sets based on described minimal cut set
Probability asks for the top event probability of described accident tree, and wherein, described top event is road traffic accident；
According to described top event probability, the safe condition of described road is evaluated.
2. the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that described based on road traffic accident structure accident tree include:
When there is road traffic accident, described generation road traffic accident is defined as top event；
Determine that intermediate event, described intermediate event include anthropic factor and non-artificial factor according to described top event；
Determining elementary event according to described intermediate event, when described intermediate event is anthropic factor, described elementary event is for driving
Sail be drunk driving or/and fatigue driving, passenger disturb driving, passerby to violate the traffic regulations, driver flurried in one or more,
When described intermediate event is non-anthropic factor, described elementary event is vehicle trouble, traffic sign and marked disappearance, traffic signs
It is smooth that graticule is wrong, identifier marking arranges that the diseases such as unreasonable, the longitudinal gradient gradient is excessive, vertical curve frequent exchange, pit cause
Spend " channel effect " that poor, road vehicles produces, barrier is cleared up the most in time, traffic sign and marked be blocked, protect and isolate
Facility lost efficacy, glare screen disappearance, identifier marking position arrange unreasonable, road construction and maintenance to lane width narrow, road
Road construction and maintenance to track quantity reduce, shoulder width deficiency, vehicle drop the " snow that article, dense fog, snowfall and accumulated snow cause
Blind " phenomenon, rainfall, tunnel electromechanical facility damages, tunnel monitoring facility lost efficacy, straight line is long is easily generated hypervelocity and song tired, flat
Line superelevation and radius is little, bend lacks easement curve, rainfall, snowfall, impeded drainage, pavement roughness, without guardrail, special road section
Safeguard procedures, icy on road, road snow, road surface is taked to produce in moisture film, road surface building stones unity and coherence in writing unreasonable structure
Plant or multiple；
Determine the logical relation between described top event, intermediate event and elementary event, and according to described top event, intermediate event
And the logical relation structure accident tree between elementary event.
3. method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that described anthropic factor is that car takes advantage of human behavior and/or passerby to do
Disturb.
4. method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that described non-artificial factor is road safety present situation defect, road
Linear difference, horizontal alignment are unreasonable, sighting distance is not enough, transverse section short of width, pavement behavior are severe, pavement roughness, road surface are wet
Cunning, pavement skid resistance condition deficiency, surface gathered water, road obstacle, barrier occur, trackside barrier enters running region, friendship
Logical acquisition of information is smooth, traffic signs cannot identification, poor visibility, traffic insurance facility defect, the mistake of tunnel electromechanical facility
One or more in effect.
5. method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that described logical relation is and door or or the logic pass of door foundation
System.
6. method as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that described determine the described road traffic of impact according to described accident tree
The minimal cut set of security incident includes:
According to described accident tree, from described top event according to the logical relation of described top event Yu described intermediate event, with
And the logical relation of described intermediate event and described elementary event constructs the structure function of described accident tree；
Restrain according to Boolean algebra elementary operation, described structure function is carried out abbreviation；
Described structure function after abbreviation obtains described minimal cut set by conclusion.
7. the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that described minimum path sets is after described minimal cut set dualistic transformation
The minimum path sets arrived.
8. the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that described determine described accident tree elementary event probability of happening be
The data that accident occurs are caused, according to described data calculated elementary event probability of happening by statistics.
9. the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that described determine described accident tree elementary event probability of happening be
The elementary event probability of happening obtained by laboratory observation.
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| CN107134138A (en) * | 2017-06-06 | 2017-09-05 | 深圳市乃斯网络科技有限公司 | The distribution method and system of vehicle peccancy point in intelligent transportation |
| CN108711287A (en) * | 2018-05-31 | 2018-10-26 | 吉林化工学院 | A kind of Intelligent traffic information acquiring analysis process system |
| CN109243178A (en) * | 2018-11-14 | 2019-01-18 | 上海应用技术大学 | Town way Traffic Safety Analysis and evaluation method under the conditions of a kind of bad climate |
| CN109710232A (en) * | 2018-12-24 | 2019-05-03 | 南京理工大学 | It is dried in vacuo the minimal cut set acquiring method of operation blast accident tree analysis |
| US10319229B1 (en) | 2018-02-02 | 2019-06-11 | International Business Machines Corporation | Data mining for alerts regarding road conditions |
| CN111372049A (en) * | 2020-03-11 | 2020-07-03 | 上海工程技术大学 | Rail transit hazard source identification and intelligent early warning device and method |
| WO2023087593A1 (en) * | 2021-11-22 | 2023-05-25 | 天津航天瑞莱科技有限公司 | Method for qualitative design for maintainability at product design stage |
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| CN107134138A (en) * | 2017-06-06 | 2017-09-05 | 深圳市乃斯网络科技有限公司 | The distribution method and system of vehicle peccancy point in intelligent transportation |
| US10319229B1 (en) | 2018-02-02 | 2019-06-11 | International Business Machines Corporation | Data mining for alerts regarding road conditions |
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| CN109243178A (en) * | 2018-11-14 | 2019-01-18 | 上海应用技术大学 | Town way Traffic Safety Analysis and evaluation method under the conditions of a kind of bad climate |
| CN109710232A (en) * | 2018-12-24 | 2019-05-03 | 南京理工大学 | It is dried in vacuo the minimal cut set acquiring method of operation blast accident tree analysis |
| CN111372049A (en) * | 2020-03-11 | 2020-07-03 | 上海工程技术大学 | Rail transit hazard source identification and intelligent early warning device and method |
| CN111372049B (en) * | 2020-03-11 | 2021-10-08 | 上海工程技术大学 | Rail transit hazard source identification and intelligent early warning device and method |
| WO2023087593A1 (en) * | 2021-11-22 | 2023-05-25 | 天津航天瑞莱科技有限公司 | Method for qualitative design for maintainability at product design stage |
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Application publication date: 20161116 |