CN106096754A - A kind of coal changes the optimization method of electricity layout - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of coal and change the optimization method of electricity layout, comprise the following steps: A) energy services demand is calculated；B) demand of coal with electric power is calculated；C) conversion to electricity substituted coal is analyzed；D) potentiality of electricity substituted coal are analyzed.The application establishes and substitutes objective optimization model based on coal reduction target and energy prices probabilistic multizone electric energy under economic new normality, solves problems with: the whole nation and each province's electric energy substitute potentiality；The whole nation and each province implement coal and change the cost of electricity, can implement the order of using electricity instead of coal according to the present arrangement that becomes of various technology, use predicting the outcome of being drawn of this set idea and method to be substantially consistent with practical operation situation through inspection.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to bulk materials market analysis field, particularly relate to a kind of coal and change the optimization method of electricity layout.
Background technology
Analyses and prediction coal changes electrically optimized layout, macroscopic aspect needs consider macroeconomy growth rate and economic structure,
Coal supply ability, the energy and the Productivity Construction of heavy industry industrial chain and Free up Memory, power generation structure and electrical network both at home and abroad
The many factors such as the re-rating of ability to transmit electricity, under the new situation energy products especially coal product；On mid-scale view, need
Consider region, the wave characteristic of industrial economy, electrification structure and situation of exerting oneself, safe prevention dynamics and the coal of the generating of non-fossil
Produce the key elements such as situation, traffic condition, domestic and international coal price relations；In microcosmic point, need to consider energy prices, Yong Hushou
Enter the change of level, profitability, technological process, Living Style and life-form structure, various can equipment recoverable amounts change and
The popularization and application etc. of novel energy-conserving technology.Therefore, analyses and prediction coal changes the directivity of the existing macroscopic aspect of electrically optimized layout, structure
Property indirect factor, also has all kinds of direct factors in middle microcosmic point, is an extremely complex system engineering.At present, theoretical circles
Change electricity regional distribution about coal and optimize the research of analyses and prediction seldom, not yet find open achievement in research.
Guo Wang energy research institute is explored by years of researches, establishes a set of based on prevention and control of air pollution with energy prices
The coal of impact changes the optimization method of electricity layout.
Summary of the invention
Present invention solves the technical problem that and be that a kind of coal affected based on prevention and control of air pollution and energy prices changes electricity cloth
Office's optimization method.
In view of this, this application provides a kind of coal and change the optimization method of electricity layout, comprise the following steps:
A), energy services demand is calculated；
B), the demand of coal with electric power is calculated；
C), the conversion to electricity substituted coal is analyzed；
D), the potentiality of electricity substituted coal are analyzed.
Preferably, step A) described in the analyzing and predicting method of energy services demand include: literature survey and expert interviewing,
Time series, energy services intensity and by-variable sampling tests.
Preferably, when described analyzing and predicting method is time series, described time series particularly as follows:
By the historical data collected with arrange energy services, use autoregressive method, moving average method and exponential smoothing
In one or more energy services demand is carried out trend extropolation, obtain predicting the outcome of energy services demand.
Preferably, when described analyzing and predicting method is energy services intensity, described energy services intensity particularly as follows:
Strong with the energy services that unit-economy activity variable consumes by analyzing the relatively easy economic activity variable measured
Degree, the energy services demand that employing following formula prediction is following:
Energy services demand=economic society activity variable × energy services intensity.
Preferably, when described analyzing and predicting method is by-variable sampling tests, described by-variable sampling tests particularly as follows:
Use method of least square that the historical data of explanatory variable Yu energy services is carried out regression analysis, derive description and solve
Release the regression equation of variable and energy services balanced relation；
By judging the change in future of explanatory variable, apply described regression equation, obtain the predictive value of energy services.
Preferably, step B) described in the method that calculates include following two method:
A), directly infer according to energy services demand and corresponding Energy Intensity；
B), terminal energy sources demand and energy services demand and the econometric model of other influence factor are set up.
Preferably, step C) particularly as follows:
The efficiency of the structure according to fuel and fuel carries out the transformational analysis of electricity substituted coal.
This application provides a kind of coal and change the optimization method of electricity layout, it establishes cutting based on coal under economic new normality
Subtracting target and energy prices probabilistic multizone electric energy substitutes objective optimization model, it comprises the following steps: taken by the energy
Business demand carries out calculating, calculates coal and the demand of electric power, be analyzed the conversion of electricity substituted coal, analyzes electricity substituted
The potentiality of coal, are i.e. divided into the calculating of energy services demand, the calculating of terminal energy sources demand, energy conversion analysis and optimization to analyze four
Point.The present invention proposes a whole set of thinking and the method determining coal fired power generation ability, solves problems with: national and each power saving
Potentiality can be substituted；The whole nation and each province implement coal and change the cost of electricity, can implement using electricity instead of coal according to the one-tenth present arrangement of various technology
Order；Through inspection, predicting the outcome of using that this set idea and method drawn is consistent substantially with practical operation situation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the flow chart that coal of the present invention changes the optimization method of electricity layout.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to be further appreciated by the present invention, below in conjunction with embodiment, the preferred embodiment of the invention is described, but
Should be appreciated that these describe simply as to further illustrate the features and advantages of the present invention rather than to the claims in the present invention
Limit.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of coal and change the optimization method of electricity layout, comprise the following steps:
A), energy services demand is calculated；
B), the demand of coal with electric power is calculated；
C), the conversion to electricity substituted coal is analyzed；
D), the potentiality of electricity substituted coal are analyzed.
This application provides a kind of coal and change the optimization method of electricity layout, the optimization method that the application provides is dirty based on air
The coal of dye preventing and treating and energy prices impact changes the optimization method of electricity layout, and its basic ideas are to establish the base under economic new normality
In coal reduction target and the energy prices electricity substituted objective optimization model of probabilistic multizone, above-mentioned steps can be reduced to:
(1) energy services demand is calculated；(2) terminal energy sources demand calculates；(3) energy conversion analysis；(4) analysis four parts are optimized.
As it is shown in figure 1, Fig. 1 is the present invention changes electricity layout optimization side based on the coal that prevention and control of air pollution and energy prices affect
The schematic flow sheet of method, embodiments herein is also carried out on the basis of this figure.
According to the present invention, in coal changes the optimization method of electricity layout, first energy services demand is calculated.Each row is each
Industry, resident living energy services demand type various, feature (especially variation tendency) is different, the most there is not one
General technology and method can be used to solve the analyses and prediction of various energy services demand.During reality models, often
Specific analyzing and predicting method (one or more combination) is selected for specific energy services demand.This application provides
Alternative analyzing and predicting method specifically includes that literature survey and expert interviewing, time series, energy services intensity and metering
Economic means.
Literature survey and expert interviewing are particular by consulting related journals, books, sector planning and research report etc.
Document, can collect the predicting the outcome of part energy services demand (or different sight predict the outcome), on this basis, logical
Cross the expert of interview relevant industries, energy services requirement forecasting result is modified the most finally being applied result.Generally
For, the energy services that the document source that carries weight, Senior Expert are analyzed, this type of method available.
Time series refers to the historical data by collecting, arrange energy services, applies autoregression, rolling average, index
The Time Series Method such as smooth carries out trend extropolation to energy services demand, is predicted the outcome.This method is primarily adapted for use in
There is the energy services of stationarity feature, mainly in business (other tertiary industry) value added, non-highly energy-consuming trade value added etc.
In demand for services.
The variation tendency of part energy services is unknown, directly predict difficulty, therefore relatively easily can survey by analyzing some
The energy services intensity that the economic activity variable (such as GDP) of amount (or judging or given) and unit-economy activity variable consume, comes
The energy services demand that prediction is following, is shown below:
Energy services demand=economic society activity variable × energy services intensity.
In above formula, following energy services intensity also will change, and energy services intensity can be according to the historical data used time
Between sequence analysis obtain, it is possible to by additive method such as literature survey value.
By-variable sampling tests refers specifically to: be normally applied the methods such as method of least square to explanatory variable and explained variable (energy
Source service) historical data carry out regression analysis, derive the regression equation of both descriptions balanced relation.By judging (giving)
The change in future of explanatory variable, application regression equation i.e. can get the predictive value of energy services.
Then computing terminal energy demand.All departments, each kind terminal energy sources demand are predicted, mainly have two kinds of sides
Method, one is directly to calculate according to energy services demand and corresponding Energy Intensity (such as unit consumption of product/output value unit consumption), and two is to set up
Terminal energy sources demand and energy services demand and the econometric model of other influence factors (such as energy prices), by returning mould
Type is predicted.Modeling real process in, should according to concrete industry, the energy services demand of different cultivars and with can spy
Point, the quality of data select flexibly.
Have enough to meet the need freight volume class energy services demand for value added, product yield and traffic, preferably choose output value unit consumption analysis method,
Unit consumption of product analytic process, traffic unit turnover freight volume energy consumption analysis method, it is crucial that analyze and judge various energy consumption tendency during calculating, logical
Often can the historical variations of comprehensive energy consumption, existing level, international most advanced level (on the basis of the energy consumption level current by Japan) with
And the energy using technology progress of corresponding key carrys out comprehensive anticipation.For other energy services demands, it is contemplated that use second method i.e.
Econometric model is analyzed prediction, and the factor (variable) of alternative metering model and consideration thereof is various, often to combine
The judgement of matched moulds type fitting effect, expertise, document comparative result etc. are modeled.Such as, the mistake of terminal energy sources demand analysis
Journey can be come by output value unit consumption method, unit consumption of product method, turnover analytic process and meter according to energy technology analysis and literature survey result
One or more in amount economic law calculate coal and electric power need in industry, traffic, building and resident and other industry
Ask.
According to the present invention, then carry out the transformational analysis of electric power and Coal Energy Source.Energy efficiency is refered in particular in an economy
Quantity of energy needed for energy services is provided, i.e. uses same amount of, the useful service of less production of energy or output.From skill
Art aspect is said, energy efficiency refer to use the energy from exploit, process, change, store and transport and the activity such as terminal utilization obtained
The ratio of quantity of energy and the energy of actual consumption.Say from economic angle, energy efficiency produce exactly a unit-economy activity or
It is to meet certain comfort level to make the minimizing of energy consumption.
Physical energy efficiency (thermal efficiency) evaluation and computation methods according to UNECE, energy resource system
Aggregate efficiency is made up of three parts: one is production efficiency, refers mainly to the recovery ratio (rate of extraction) of fossil fuel reserves；Two is adapter ring
Joint efficiency, refers mainly to processing, changes and store and transport efficiency；Three is the available energy that obtains of terminal utilization ratio, i.e. terminal use and mistake
The ratio of the quantity of energy of input when journey starts.When adjusting energy efficiency, due to exploitation link (rate of extraction) energy that do not utilizes not
Having consumption, the following possibility still having recycling, and be difficult to weigh, add up, the energy efficiency that therefore this problem is adjusted only considers
The efficiency that processing conversion and terminal utilize.
When adjusting energy resource system efficiency, for raw coal, two kinds of purposes of main consideration, one is to be directly used in terminal, this part
Efficiency is its terminal utilization ratio, and two is to be changed (and accumulating) by processing, be indirectly for terminal, and this part efficiency turns for processing
Change efficiency with terminal utilization ratio long-pending.For electric power, only consider to be directly used in terminal consumption.
The application finally carries out replacing the optimization analysis of coal potentiality, the optimization analysis that electric energy substitutes to be based primarily upon terminal with electricity
Energy Demand Forecast result, analyzes the input and output of the processing conversion links such as generating, how the input of these links of reasonable arrangement
Output, realize distributing rationally of energy resources, be substantially a system optimization problem.The present invention is with energy supply system assembly
This minimum optimization aim, it is considered to balanced supply and demand of energy, the constraint of each province consumption of coal total amount, using electricity instead of coal economy etc. about
Bundle, sets up coal and changes electricity layout optimization method.
The application preferred forms follows the steps below:
1) data are collected, including the whole nation and each province's Coal Consumption Structure, generating efficiency, main industries coal, the end of electric power
End consumption figure, electricity coal demand, supply, stock, price etc.；
2) data screened, analyze, process, enable each bore, each side data mutually to confirm and to be connected；
3) creation analysis forecast model；
4) debug every expert diagnosis coefficient and carry out computational analysis, showing that the whole nation and each province's electric energy substitute potentiality and effect
Benefit.
The explanation of above example is only intended to help to understand method and the core concept thereof of the present invention.It is right to it should be pointed out that,
For those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, it is also possible to the present invention is carried out
Some improvement and modification, these improve and modify in the protection domain also falling into the claims in the present invention.
Described above to the disclosed embodiments, makes professional and technical personnel in the field be capable of or uses the present invention.
Multiple amendment to these embodiments will be apparent from for those skilled in the art, as defined herein
General Principle can realize without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention in other embodiments.Therefore, the present invention
It is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, and is to fit to and principles disclosed herein and features of novelty phase one
The widest scope caused.
Claims (7)
1. coal changes an optimization method for electricity layout, comprises the following steps:
A), energy services demand is calculated；
B), the demand of coal with electric power is calculated；
C), the conversion to electricity substituted coal is analyzed；
D), the potentiality of electricity substituted coal are analyzed.
Optimization method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that step A) described in the analysis of energy services demand pre-
Survey method includes: literature survey and expert interviewing, time series, energy services intensity and the one or many in by-variable sampling tests
Kind.
Optimization method the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that when described analyzing and predicting method is time series, institute
State time series particularly as follows:
By the historical data collected with arrange energy services, use in autoregressive method, moving average method and exponential smoothing
Energy services demand is carried out trend extropolation by one or more, obtains predicting the outcome of energy services demand.
Optimization method the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described analyzing and predicting method is energy services intensity
Time, described energy services intensity particularly as follows:
By analyzing the energy services intensity that the relatively easy economic activity variable measured consumes with unit-economy activity variable, adopt
By following energy services demand of following formula prediction:
Energy services demand=economic society activity variable × energy services intensity.
Optimization method the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described analyzing and predicting method is by-variable sampling tests
Time, described by-variable sampling tests particularly as follows:
Use method of least square that the historical data of explanatory variable Yu energy services is carried out regression analysis, derive description and explain change
Amount and the regression equation of energy services balanced relation；
By judging the change in future of explanatory variable, apply described regression equation, obtain the predictive value of energy services.
Optimization method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that step B) described in calculate method include following two
The method of kind:
A), directly infer according to energy services demand and corresponding Energy Intensity；
B), terminal energy sources demand and energy services demand and the econometric model of other influence factor are set up.
Optimization method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that step C) particularly as follows:
The efficiency of the structure according to fuel and fuel carries out the transformational analysis of electricity substituted coal.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108256723A (en) * | 2017-11-27 | 2018-07-06 | 国网河北省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Coal changes the assessment of economic benefit method and terminal device for being electrically accessed power grid |
| CN113759798A (en) * | 2021-09-22 | 2021-12-07 | 南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司 | Energy monitoring system |
-
2016
- 2016-05-30 CN CN201610371173.3A patent/CN106096754A/en active Pending
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108256723A (en) * | 2017-11-27 | 2018-07-06 | 国网河北省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Coal changes the assessment of economic benefit method and terminal device for being electrically accessed power grid |
| CN108256723B (en) * | 2017-11-27 | 2021-11-30 | 国网河北省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Economic benefit evaluation method for accessing coal-to-electricity into power grid and terminal equipment |
| CN113759798A (en) * | 2021-09-22 | 2021-12-07 | 南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司 | Energy monitoring system |
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Address after: 100031 Xicheng District West Chang'an Avenue, No. 86, Beijing Applicant after: State Grid Corporation of China Applicant after: National Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. Address before: 100031 Xicheng District West Chang'an Avenue, No. 86, Beijing Applicant before: State Grid Corporation of China Applicant before: State Grid Energy Research Institute |
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Application publication date: 20161109 |