CN106054282A - MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)-based southwestern region precipitation prediction method - Google Patents
MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)-based southwestern region precipitation prediction method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses an MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)-based southwestern region precipitation prediction method. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)-based southwestern region precipitation prediction method includes the following steps that: a, the climate data of China' southwestern region over the years are extracted, and tropical MJO activity characteristics over the years are used in combination, so that the precipitation characteristics of China' southwest region are classified, and a tropical MJO-based precipitation model can be established; b, based on ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field variables, the phases of tropical MJO activities are calculated and predicted, and the intensity of the tropical MJO activities is calculated and determined; c, the characteristics of tropical convection activities are analyzed, and the actual conditions and evolution trends of specific weather data are used in combination, so that weather diagnostic analysis can be carried out; and d, based on the characteristics of the tropical MJO activities, the weather diagnostic analysis and the established tropical MJO-based precipitation model, precipitation regions and intensity are predicted comprehensively. With the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)-based southwestern region precipitation prediction method of the present invention adopted, the precipitation regions and intensity can be predicted comprehensively based on the weather diagnostic analysis.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to precipitation forecast field, more particularly to a kind of southwest based on MJO precipitation forecast method.
Background technology
In tropical atmosphere season, concussion is found by Madden and Julian in early 1970s at first, later with
The name of Madden and Julian is referred to as Madden Julian Oscillation (referred to as MJO), is that the whole world finds at present
The strongest low frequency signal.Currently for the application of torrid zone MJO, it is mainly used for extended peroid forecast.
And, for main statistical model and two kinds of methods of dynamic mode of using of extended peroid forecast of torrid zone MJO, statistics mould
Type mainly utilizes the methods such as lag regression model, autoregression model, combination analogue method and experience phase propagation to carry out real-time prediction
MJO, also has, on the basis of statistical methods combines, MJO is carried out DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM, as Korea S utilizes wavelet analysis, polynary
Return and three kinds of statistical method of singular spectrum analysis combine and MJO is carried out DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM, then combine with statistical fluctuation, give the correct time in advance
Effect can reach 24 days.Dynamic mode is mainly the dynamic mode that MJO index is used for its world business center, such as GFS/NCEP
(Global Forecast System), CFS/NCEP (climatic prediction system), GEFS/NECP (worldwide collection forecast system), MJO is carried out reality
Time operational forecast.
Being affected by global warming, China's diastrous weather presents trend multiple, that retransmit, happen suddenly, the most by force
Flood, mud-rock flow that precipitation causes, the disaster such as to drag in city more and more prominent, and the impact caused is the most increasing.In China, four
Basin, river precipitation is concentrated mainly on middle part and eastern region, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau mean annual precipitation has Liang Ge great Zhi district, lays respectively at cloud
South-southwest portion and South of Guizhou, Tibetan Plateau Precipitation is concentrated mainly on east；Southwest precipitation is concentrated mainly on summer, Sichuan
Precipitation great Zhi district, basin is predominantly located at central Sichuan Basin, and precipitation big value in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau is centrally located at the west and south, Yunnan and Gui Zhounan
Portion, and Tibet precipitation is thing distribution, Precipitation of Eastern is many, and western precipitation is relatively fewer.Each season, steam main source had significance difference
Different, season winter in spring moisture source be mainly mid-latitude westerlies, season in autumn in summer two moisture source be mainly the Bay of Bengal and the South Sea
Vapor transfer northwards.
Therefore, it is necessary to propose a kind of southwest based on MJO precipitation forecast method.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of southwest based on MJO precipitation that can effectively realize load balancing pre-
Reporting method.
Present invention southwest based on MJO precipitation forecast method is mainly achieved by the steps of:
Comprise the steps:
A, extract southwest climatic data over the years, combine the torrid zone over the years MJO active characteristics, to southwest precipitation spy
Levy and classify, set up dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO；
B, calculated and forecast the movable position phase of torrid zone MJO by ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field, and calculate determine described
The power that torrid zone MJO is movable；
C, analyze Tropical convection feature, and combine the fact of particular weather data and evolving trend carries out weather diagnosis
Analyze；
D, combine described the torrid zone MJO active characteristics, described Synoptic Diagnostic and set up based on the torrid zone MJO precipitation
Rainfall is settled in an area by model and intensity carries out comprehensive forecasting.
Preferably, described step a comprises the steps:
Gathered by observation station and store the climatic data that southwest is over the years；
Extract described climatic data over the years, in conjunction with the torrid zone over the years MJO active characteristics, southwest Characteristics of Precipitation is carried out
Classification is summed up, and sets up dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO.
Preferably, in stepb, torrid zone MJO index is calculated mainly according to following by ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field
Step is carried out:
ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field day by day data day by day over the years is utilized to set up MJO spatial model: first to remove data
The impact of Climatological mean, time series carries out Fourier respectively to three variable fields of ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field
Three order harmonicses are removed in filtering；
The impact shaken in removing season, deducts front 120 day average of data on each lattice point；
To three variable fields, synthesis field after the square root normalization of whole world average variance carries out MV-EOF and divides respectively
Analysis, sets up the first two mode of the spatial model of MJO, i.e. MV-EOF；
By in real-time observed data back projection to the spatial model of MJO, i.e. based on ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field three
First and second spatial mode of the EOF of the synthesis field of variable, obtains real-time MJO index, is designated as RMM1 and RMM2 index respectively.
Preferably, movable for MJO power is determined by RMM1 and RMM2 index.
Preferably, in step c, described particular weather data include that vertical irregularity, atmospheric circulation form, steam are logical
Amount, Depression Over The Bay of Bengal and South China Sea depression fact and change trend analysis.
Preferably, in step c, described particular weather data acquisition analysis-by-synthesis approach is carried out described weather diagnosis and divides
Analysis, described analysis-by-synthesis approach includes the computational analysis that data carry out anomaly and meansigma methods.
Preferably, at defined in initial data seasonal effect in time series variable xi(i=1,2,3 ..., n), described meansigma methods
Computing formula be:
The computing formula of described anomaly is:Wherein, i=1,2,3 ..., n.
Compared to the shortcoming and defect of prior art, the method have the advantages that ground, described southwest based on MJO
District's precipitation forecast method for the movable influencing mechanism to southwest precipitation of MJO from low layer vapor transfer, low-level jet stream, middle level
Synoptic scale system, wind field, high-level jet stream and the high-rise planetary scale weather decorum are angularly analyzed, such that it is able to set up
Described dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO, and then the rainfall to southwest is settled in an area and intensity carries out comprehensive forecasting.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the FB(flow block) of southwest based on the MJO precipitation forecast method that the embodiment of the present invention provides；
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet of southwest based on MJO precipitation forecast method shown in Fig. 1；
Fig. 3 is the MJO position phasor that southwest based on MJO to shown in Fig. 1 precipitation forecast method is relevant.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to make the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, right
The present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, and
It is not used in the restriction present invention.
It is southwest based on the MJO precipitation forecast side that the embodiment of the present invention provides please refer to Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, Fig. 1
The FB(flow block) of method, Fig. 2 is the Forecast flow schematic diagram of southwest based on MJO precipitation forecast method shown in Fig. 1.The present invention
In described based on MJO southwest precipitation forecast method that embodiment provides, mainly by COMPONENT IN SOUTH SICHUAN BASIN in 1979～2014
191 observation stations, ground, 208 observation stations in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Tibet plateau 38 observation station real-time monitored in 1979～2013
Daily rainfall data, and NOAA provide the OLR of air day by day (Outgoing Longwave Radiation,
OLR) analysis of data again such as zonal wind day by day, meridional wind, relative humidity and temperature that data and ECMWF provide, analyzes ground, southwest
District's rainfall distribution feature and torrid zone MJO active characteristics, with power and the residing position of this MJO activity centre, torrid zone discussed further
Put and the Sichuan Basin, Tibet plateau and the dependency of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau rainfall distribution and influencing mechanism, and set up on this basis
Southwest precipitation conceptual model based on torrid zone MJO.
Described southwest based on MJO precipitation forecast method comprises the steps:
Step S1, extract southwest climatic data over the years, combine the most tropical MJO active characteristics over the years, to southwest
Characteristics of Precipitation is classified, and sets up dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO.
Specifically, described step S1 comprises the steps:
Gathered by observation station and store the climatic data that southwest is over the years；
In conjunction with the torrid zone over the years MJO active characteristics, southwest Characteristics of Precipitation is classified；
Set up dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO；
Such as, the 1979-2014 Sichuan Basin, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, three regions of Tibet plateau (amounting to 437 websites) by
Daily precipitation data.Daily rainfall data is mainly used in analyzing the weather distribution characteristics of southwest precipitation, and combine torrid zone MJO by
Day position phase, amplitude data, discuss torrid zone MJO activity and be positioned at the relation of different positions phase time and southwest precipitation.
Such as: the whole world OLR day by day that U.S. NOAA provides, horizontal resolution is 2.5 ° × 2.5 °；It is mainly used in analyzing heat
Band and the mobile distribution situation of strong convection activity centre, southwest.
The analysis of data the most again of 1979-2014 European center (ECMWF) 1 ° × 1 ° of resolution, mainly include temperature,
The meteorological elements such as meridional wind, zonal wind, relative humidity, specific humidity and air pressure.It is mainly used in analyzing MJO pair, the 1979-2014 torrid zone
Stream activity centre is positioned at not coordination phase time, each atmospheric circulation in season situation, wind field, water vapor flux equal distribution situation, and research is discussed
Torrid zone MJO is movable to the concrete influencing mechanism to southwest precipitation.
The MJO exponential sequence of the monitoring in real time that weather bureau official website of Australia provides (include RMM exponential sequence 1,2,
Be designated as RMM1, RMM2), MJO amplitude and 1979-2014 be by position phase day by day.
Step S2, calculated by ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field and forecast the movable position phase of torrid zone MJO, and calculating really
Fixed described power movable for torrid zone MJO.
Specifically, as it is shown on figure 3, be MJO that southwest based on MJO to shown in Fig. 1 precipitation forecast method is relevant by
Day position phasor.8 positions of MJO represent MJO convective activity center, the torrid zone the most respectively in complete MJO cycle eastwards from west
Diverse location residing in, 1-8 position represents MJO activity centre the most respectively, and from equator, the western Indian Ocean is origin (the 1st phase), along red
Road is propagated eastwards, lays respectively in the Indian Ocean (2,3 phases), Indonesia archipelago (4 phases), Western Pacific (5-6 position phase), the Pacific Ocean
Portion, east (7 phases) and the Western Hemisphere (8 phases).In the phasor of described MJO position, every phase point air line distance from the center of circle is then
The intensity (amplitude) of MJO, can be obtained by RMM1 and RMM2 Index for Calculation, and computing formula is
Set the circled areas that unit radius is as 1 in the drawings, i.e. RMM < when 1, is expressed as weak MJO movable, beyond encircled, i.e.
Strong MJO it is expressed as movable during RMM > 1.
And, in step 2, calculate torrid zone MJO index mainly according to following step by ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field
Suddenly carry out:
ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field day by day data day by day over the years is utilized to set up MJO spatial model: first to remove data
The impact of Climatological mean, time series carries out Fourier respectively to three variable fields of ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field
Three order harmonicses are removed in filtering；
The impact shaken in removing season, deducts front 120 day average of data on each lattice point；
Then to three variable fields respectively through the whole world average variance square root normalization after synthesis field carry out MV-
EOF analyzes, and sets up the first two mode of the spatial model of MJO, i.e. MV-EOF；
Finally, by real-time observed data back projection to the spatial model of MJO, i.e. based on ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind
First and second spatial mode of the EOF of the synthesis field of three variablees in field, obtains real-time MJO index, is designated as RMM1 and RMM2 respectively
Index.
It should be noted that when building the spatial model of MJO, MV-EOF is in Experimental orthogonal function analysis method EOF
One, EOF is the architectural feature in a kind of analysis matrix data, extract key data characteristic quantity a kind of method, it is possible to
Time dependent variable field is decomposed into time-independent spatial function part and only relies on the time letter of time change
Fractional part, MV-EOF then can carry out characteristic vector analysis to multiple variablees simultaneously.
Step S3, analyze Tropical convection feature, and combine the fact of particular weather data and evolving trend carries out sky
Gas diagnostic analysis；
Specifically, utilize statistical method to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristic of southwest precipitation, studied by synthesis analysis
The MJO movable impact on Southwestern China regional precipitation in the torrid zone is discussed, uses weather shape during synoptic meteorology technique study precipitation simultaneously
The configuring conditions such as gesture, aerodynamic field and steam, the research torrid zone movable influencing mechanism concrete to Southwestern China regional precipitation of MJO.
Wherein, in described step S3, described particular weather analysis includes vertical irregularity, atmospheric circulation form, steam
Flux, Depression Over The Bay of Bengal and South China Sea depression etc..
And, in described step S3, described particular weather data acquisition analysis-by-synthesis approach is carried out described weather and examines
Disconnected analyzing, described analysis-by-synthesis approach includes being averaged data the computational analysis of value and anomaly.
It should be noted that anomaly is the difference of some numerical value in certain series of values and meansigma methods, point positive anomaly and
Negative anomaly.Anomaly value is in diagnostic analysis, and anomaly value is often used in the observation replacing meteorological element, is primarily used to really
Certain period fixed or time time data, be high or low relative to certain long-term average of these data.Original value is generally used for
Characterize certain period or time time true horizon.
Specifically, during described synthesis analysis, at defined in initial data seasonal effect in time series variable xi(i=
1,2,3 ..., n), the computing formula of described meansigma methods is:The computing formula of described anomaly is:Its
In, i=1,2,3 ..., n.
And, for the Sichuan Basin, Tibet plateau and three, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau each website in area in spring, summer, autumn, four season of winter
Save and lay respectively at the precipitation of 1-8 position phase time in torrid zone MJO activity and carry out anomaly synthesis, obtain MJO in each season and be positioned at not coordination
Phase time, each department (website) corresponding precipitation event, analyze torrid zone MJO with this movable at varying strength, not coordination phase time, with China
The relation of each department, southwest rainfall distribution.
Such as, using the Climatological Mean Values of precipitation in 1979～2014 day by day in each season as precipitation meansigma methods, the conjunction obtained
One-tenth value is just, shows that this website precipitation is on the high side, for time negative, shows that precipitation is on the low side.Single per day Precipitation anonaly percentage of standing is right
The anomaly synthesis of the Sichuan Basin, Tibet plateau and each department, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau entirety precipitation, indicates the strong of this area's entirety precipitation
Weak, for timing, show that this area's entirety precipitation is on the high side, on the low side for showing this area's entirety precipitation time negative.
The most such as, precipitation corresponding for 1979-2014 power MJO activity 1-8 position is extracted, respectively still with respectively
Season 1979-2014 precipitation day by day Climatological Mean Values as precipitation meansigma methods, do anomaly synthesis analysis on this basis,
It is positioned at distribution situation and the overall trend of each department, phase time correspondence southwest, 1-8 position precipitation to strong and weak different MJO activities, obtains
Just (bear) anomalous percentage and represent precipitation (lacking) on the high side respectively.Specifically, to 500hPa Geopotential Height Fields and wind field, 200hPa height
Empty torrent, 100hPa Geopotential Height Fields (South Asia high), 850hPa water vapor flux, vertical cloud top and low-level jet stream are also with equally
Mode carry out synthesis analysis, obtain the off-note of correspondence, analyze the mechanism of everybody relative southwest Rainfall Influence.
Step S4, combine described the torrid zone MJO active characteristics, described Synoptic Diagnostic and set up based on the torrid zone MJO
Dewatering model rainfall is settled in an area and intensity carries out comprehensive forecasting.
Specifically, such as, mainly being discussed by Rainfall Amount for Precipitation in Sichuan Basin, Precipitation anonaly percentage calculates
Formula is:
Wherein, a is actual observed value, and b is the Climatological Mean Values of precipitation, and Precipitation anonaly percentage reflects a certain period
Precipitation and the departure degree of the mean state same period.
Compared to prior art, southwest based on the MJO precipitation forecast method that the present invention provides is right for MJO activity
The influencing mechanism of southwest precipitation is from bottom vapor transfer, low-level jet stream, middle level synoptic scale system, wind field, high-level jet stream
And the angle of the high level planetary scale decorum is analyzed, such that it is able to set up described dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO, and then
Rainfall to southwest is settled in an area and intensity carries out comprehensive forecasting.
The foregoing is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, not in order to limit the present invention, all essences in the present invention
Any amendment, equivalent and the improvement etc. made within god and principle, should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. southwest based on a MJO precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that comprise the steps:
A, extract southwest climatic data over the years, combine the most tropical MJO active characteristics over the years, southwest Characteristics of Precipitation is entered
Row classification, sets up dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO；
B, calculated and forecast the movable position phase of torrid zone MJO by ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field, and calculate and determine the described torrid zone
The power that MJO is movable；
C, analyze Tropical convection feature, and combine the fact of particular weather data and evolving trend carries out weather diagnosis and divides
Analysis；
D, combine described the torrid zone MJO active characteristics, described Synoptic Diagnostic and set up based on the torrid zone MJO dewatering model
Rainfall is settled in an area and intensity carries out comprehensive forecasting.
Southwest based on MJO the most according to claim 1 precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that described step a bag
Include following steps:
Gathered by observation station and store the climatic data that southwest is over the years；
Extract described climatic data over the years, in conjunction with the torrid zone over the years MJO active characteristics, southwest Characteristics of Precipitation is classified
Sum up, and set up dewatering model based on torrid zone MJO.
Southwest based on MJO the most according to claim 1 precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that in stepb,
Calculate torrid zone MJO index by ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field mainly to carry out according to following steps:
ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field day by day data day by day over the years is utilized to set up MJO spatial model: first to remove the gas of data
Wait average impact, time series carries out Fourier filtering respectively to three variable fields of ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field
Remove three order harmonicses；
The impact shaken in removing season, deducts front 120 day average of data on each lattice point；
To three variable fields respectively through the whole world average variance square root normalization after synthesis field carry out MV-EOF analysis, build
The spatial model of vertical MJO, i.e. the first two mode of MV-EOF；
By in real-time observed data back projection to the spatial model of MJO, i.e. based on three variablees of ORL, 850hPa, 200hPa wind field
First and second spatial mode of EOF of synthesis field, obtain real-time MJO index, be designated as RMM1 and RMM2 index respectively.
Southwest based on MJO the most according to claim 3 precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that movable strong of MJO
Weak determined by RMM1 and RMM2 index.
Southwest based on MJO the most according to claim 1 precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that in step c,
Described particular weather data include that vertical irregularity, atmospheric circulation form, water vapor flux, Depression Over The Bay of Bengal and South China Sea depression are real
Condition and change trend analysis.
Southwest based on MJO the most according to claim 5 precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that in step c,
Described particular weather data acquisition analysis-by-synthesis approach is carried out described Synoptic Diagnostic, and it is right that described analysis-by-synthesis approach includes
Data carry out the computational analysis of anomaly and meansigma methods.
Southwest based on MJO the most according to claim 6 precipitation forecast method, it is characterised in that at initial data
Defined in a seasonal effect in time series variable xi(i=1,2,3 ..., n), the computing formula of described meansigma methods is:
The computing formula of described anomaly is:Wherein, i=1,2,3 ..., n.
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| CN112801416A (en) * | 2021-03-10 | 2021-05-14 | 长沙理工大学 | LSTM watershed runoff prediction method based on multi-dimensional hydrological information |
| CN112698428A (en) * | 2021-03-24 | 2021-04-23 | 成都信息工程大学 | Comprehensive forecast information processing method and processing system for rainfall extension period in southwest region |
| CN113627690A (en) * | 2021-09-03 | 2021-11-09 | 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 | Method for predicting seasonal precipitation in southern China |
| CN115047544A (en) * | 2022-08-16 | 2022-09-13 | 成都信息工程大学 | Icing early warning method and system |
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