CN105956770A - Stock market risk prediction platform and text excavation method thereof - Google Patents
Stock market risk prediction platform and text excavation method thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a stock market risk prediction platform and a text excavation method thereof. The stock market risk prediction platform comprises a data collection module, a data pre-processing module, a text excavation module, a stock market prediction module, a risk evaluation module and a result output module. The invention further provides a text excavation method of the stock market risk prediction platform which is characterized in that non-structuralized text data is converted into structuralized data so as to analyze viewpoints, attitudes or emotions contained in the text. According to the invention, the design is reasonable, the non-structuralized text data is converted into structuralized data so as to analyze viewpoints, attitudes or emotions contained in the text, the evaluation of the stock market risk level is carried out according to the result obtained by data analysis, and the stock market risk level is helpful for investors to make decisions and also provides a basis for the government to make related policies and enterprises to implement corresponding strategies.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Stock Market Forecasting and risk identification field, specifically, relate to a kind of stock market's risk profile platform and
Its text mining method.
Background technology
Stock market is a country economy and the barometer of finance activities, is also Corporate finance and investor money
Produce the important means of configuration, be possible not only to formulate relevant Decision offer into government, enterprise and investor to the predictive study of stock market
Foundation, it is also possible to evade financial risks, promotes stably to develop in a healthy way in stock market.
Existing Stock Market Forecasting method includes securities analysis method, mathematical statistical model, Nonlinear Dynamics, god
Through network, support vector machine etc., these methods all assume that investor is rationality, it is possible to be traded according to principle of maximum utility
Movable.Now stock market activities is more complicated and changeable, along with finances such as Herd Behavior, overreaction or underactions
The continuous discovery of heteromophism, the defect of traditional prediction method gradually highlights.
Additionally, along with the development of information technology, the Internet comprises the information of magnanimity, not only comprise stock market's transaction etc. and disappear
Breath, also includes the content that stock market is had a major impact by macroeconomy news, Correspondence policy etc., has become as investor and obtains
The irreplaceable channel of information.On the other hand, along with forum, microblogging etc. are from media and the appearance of intercommunion platform, stock invester is mutually
In networking, the general trend of market development, macro economic policy, investment intent etc. being delivered to the viewpoint of oneself and carried out information exchange, the Internet becomes
For excavating the important carrier of investor sentiment.
Existing Stock Market Forecasting platform is built upon on traditional Stock Market Forecasting method mostly, and its shortcoming is mainly reflected in
Three aspect below:
First, have ignored investor sentiment and the behavior impact on stock market, it was predicted that result can not reflect that real market is moved
State.
Second, it is absorbed in the information such as research stock market's transaction, and have ignored the research to the data such as internet news, forum.
3rd, lack risk evaluation module, the purpose of Stock Market Forecasting is not only in that and instructs Investor's Decision, it is thus achieved that investment is received
Benefit, is more to identify financial market risks, prevents the generation of systematic risk, safeguards stable and national financial market, financial market
Safety.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to overcome drawbacks described above, it is provided that a kind of stock market's risk profile platform and text thereof
Method for digging, reasonable in design, the method that non-structured text data is converted into structural data is accumulate to analyze in document
Viewpoint, attitude or the emotion contained, and the result obtained according to data analysis carries out the evaluation of stock market's risk class, stock market's wind
Danger grade is possible not only to serve Investor's Decision, it is also possible to formulates relevant policies, enterprise implement corresponding strategy etc. for government and carries
For foundation.
For solving the problems referred to above, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is:
A kind of stock market risk profile platform, it is characterised in that: including:
Data acquisition module, for automatically collecting and obtaining stock market transaction data and multi-source internet text notebook data；
The data obtained in data acquisition module are carried out pretreatment, comprise data cleansing, data set by data preprocessing module
Become, data convert and data regularization, carry out Data Preparation for setting up Stock Market Forecast Model；
Text mining module, is used for being analyzed internet text notebook data processing to excavate investor sentiment, builds emotion and refer to
Number, comprises text participle, part-of-speech tagging, feeling polarities mark, moos index calculating, moos index adjustment, moos index integration
Six big steps；
Stock Market Forecasting module, stock market is predicted point by integrated application text mining, machine learning, the method for mathematical statistics
Analysis；
Risk evaluation module, carries out risk according to the result of Stock Market Forecasting module to stock and the market overall trend of monitoring in real time
Grade classification；
Result output module, the risk class of the stock for being paid close attention to investor output, and export whole market simultaneously
Risk class situation also provides real-time early warning.
Present invention also offers the text mining method of a kind of stock market risk profile platform, be a kind of by non-structured literary composition
Notebook data is converted into the method for structural data to analyze viewpoint, attitude or the emotion contained in document；
The internet text database that text mining method is used comprises POLICY, financial and economic news, forum data three aspect,
POLICY can excavate attitude and the tendency of government, and financial and economic news it will be seen that socioeconomic integrated information, forum data
Can the most directly extract investor sentiment；
Text mining module in stock market's risk profile platform is that the text data in the Internet is entered by applicating text method for digging
Row analyzing and processing, thus extracts the viewpoint of investor, attitude, emotion, then using the moos index calculated as input
Variable is applied in Stock Market Forecasting module.
Owing to have employed technique scheme, compared with prior art, the present invention is reasonable in design, by non-structured text
Data are converted into the method for structural data to analyze viewpoint, attitude or the emotion contained in document, and according to data
Analyzing the result obtained and carry out the evaluation of stock market's risk class, stock market's risk class is possible not only to serve Investor's Decision, also
Can be that government formulates the offer foundation such as relevant policies, enterprise implement corresponding strategy.
The invention will be further described with detailed description of the invention below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings simultaneously.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the structured flowchart of stock market's risk profile platform in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the structured flowchart of stock market's risk profile console module in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention Chinese version method for digging.
Detailed description of the invention
Embodiment:
A kind of stock market risk profile platform, as depicted in figs. 1 and 2, including:
Data acquisition module, the built-in crawlers of application platform automatically obtain stock supervisory committee, the Banking Supervision Commission, Central Bank, news hookup and
News net, east wealth, finance and economics forum of Sina, finance and economics forum of Netease, the text data of finance and economics forum of Tengxun and stock market are handed over
Easily data.
Data preprocessing module, carries out denoising operation to the text data collected, comprises data cleansing, data integration, number
According to conversion and data regularization etc., with the demand of satisfied modeling.
Text mining module, obtains policy emotion day degree index according to above-mentioned text mining step, finance and economics emotion day degree refers to
Number, forum's emotion day degree index and comprehensive emotion day degree index.
Stock Market Forecasting module, apply comprehensive emotion day degree index and delayed item, Shangzheng index and delayed item thereof,
Trading volume, stability bandwidth set up Vector Autoression Models, are predicted the tendency of Index of Shanghai Stock Exchange；
Risk evaluation module, risk is divided into five grades by system, and one-level is extremely low risk, and two grades is relatively low-risk, and three grades are
Medium risk, level Four is medium or high risk, and Pyatyi is excessive risk, the overall risk of prompting stock market.
Result output module, exports stock market overall risk grade and also points out risk, and Pyatyi excessive risk is suitable for radical type
Investor, level Four medium or high risk is suitable for active investment person, three grades of medium risks are suitable for equilibrated type investor, two grades of relatively low-risks
Being suitable for sane type investor, one-level relatively low-risk is suitable for conservative investor.Stock market's risk class is possible not only to serve investment
Person's decision-making, it is also possible to formulate relevant policies, enterprise implement corresponding strategy etc. for government and foundation is provided.
A kind of text mining method is provided in the invention described above embodiment, as it is shown on figure 3,
Data Source comprises POLICY, financial and economic news, forum data three part, and the source of POLICY includes stock supervisory committee, silver
Prison meeting, Central Bank and news hookup, the source of financial and economic news comprises Homeway.com, east wealth, and the source of forum data is Sina's wealth
Through forum, finance and economics forum of Netease and finance and economics forum of Tengxun.Carry out text analyzing for above source of news to process to excavate market
Emotion and investor sentiment；
1), text participle, application Words partition system text data is cut word process；
2), part-of-speech tagging, remove after stop words, modal particle etc. and word carried out part-of-speech tagging；
3), feeling polarities mark, word is carried out feeling polarities mark, is divided into positive word, passive word and neutral words
Language, adds up positive word and the number of passive word the most respectively；
4), moos index calculate, according to emotion computing formula (1), every news or the feelings of forum's comment data can be obtained
Thread index, thus obtain the moos index of every day, wherein, Sdx represents that moos index, Nn represent the number of passive word, and Np amasss
The number of pole word, moos index represents pessimistic investor sentiment more than 0, and moos index represents optimistic investor sentiment less than 0；
5), moos index adjust, in 104 steps find government website news there is particularity, POLICY is within a certain period of time
The most influential and POLICY is openness greatly, does not i.e. have POLICY not represent government and does not has the expression of emotion, but
The appearance of POLICY represents the interested regulatory authorities attitude to stock market within a period of time, therefore arranges time decay factor
Being adjusted POLICY, the POLICY index after adjustment is with representing, computing formula is as shown in (2),Represent original
I-th (i=0,1,2) phase delayed item of POLICY index, wherein
Being the time attenuation function of monotone decreasing, computing formula is as shown in (3)；
6), moos index integrate, the moos index of comprehensive 104 and 105, policy emotion day degree index, finance and economics emotion can be obtained
Day degree index, forum's emotion day degree index and comprehensive emotion day degree index.
The present invention is not limited to above-mentioned preferred implementation, and anyone should learn and make under the enlightenment of the present invention
Structure changes, every have with the present invention same or like as technical scheme, belong to protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. stock market's risk profile platform, it is characterised in that:
Including:
Data acquisition module, for automatically collecting and obtaining stock market transaction data and multi-source internet text notebook data；
The data obtained in data acquisition module are carried out pretreatment, comprise data cleansing, data set by data preprocessing module
Become, data convert and data regularization, carry out Data Preparation for setting up Stock Market Forecast Model；
Text mining module, is used for being analyzed internet text notebook data processing to excavate investor sentiment, builds emotion and refer to
Number, comprises text participle, part-of-speech tagging, feeling polarities mark, moos index calculating, moos index adjustment, moos index integration
Six big steps；
Stock Market Forecasting module, stock market is predicted point by integrated application text mining, machine learning, the method for mathematical statistics
Analysis；
Risk evaluation module, carries out risk according to the result of Stock Market Forecasting module to stock and the market overall trend of monitoring in real time
Grade classification；
Result output module, the risk class of the stock for being paid close attention to investor output, and export whole market simultaneously
Risk class situation also provides real-time early warning.
The text mining method of stock market the most according to claim 1 risk profile platform, it is characterised in that:
Text mining method is that a kind of method of structural data that is converted into by non-structured text data is to analyze in document
Viewpoint, attitude or the emotion contained；
The internet text database that text mining method is used comprises POLICY, financial and economic news, forum data three aspect,
POLICY can excavate attitude and the tendency of government, and financial and economic news it will be seen that socioeconomic integrated information, forum data
Can the most directly extract investor sentiment；
Text mining module in stock market's risk profile platform is that the text data in the Internet is entered by applicating text method for digging
Row analyzing and processing, thus extracts the viewpoint of investor, attitude, emotion, then using the moos index calculated as input
Variable is applied in Stock Market Forecasting module.
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Cited By (19)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106780036A (en) * | 2016-11-16 | 2017-05-31 | 硕橙（厦门）科技有限公司 | A kind of moos index construction method based on internet data collection |
| CN106886834A (en) * | 2017-01-19 | 2017-06-23 | 沃民高新科技（北京）股份有限公司 | The modeling method and model building device of data |
| CN106951563A (en) * | 2017-04-01 | 2017-07-14 | 上海诺悦智能科技有限公司 | A kind of tourist hot spot event influence degree forecasting system |
| CN107292743A (en) * | 2017-06-07 | 2017-10-24 | 前海梧桐（深圳）数据有限公司 | The intelligent decision making method and its system invested and financed for enterprise |
| CN107464068A (en) * | 2017-09-18 | 2017-12-12 | 前海梧桐（深圳）数据有限公司 | Enterprise development trend forecasting method and its system based on neutral net |
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| CN106886834A (en) * | 2017-01-19 | 2017-06-23 | 沃民高新科技（北京）股份有限公司 | The modeling method and model building device of data |
| CN106951563A (en) * | 2017-04-01 | 2017-07-14 | 上海诺悦智能科技有限公司 | A kind of tourist hot spot event influence degree forecasting system |
| CN107292743A (en) * | 2017-06-07 | 2017-10-24 | 前海梧桐（深圳）数据有限公司 | The intelligent decision making method and its system invested and financed for enterprise |
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| CN107885849A (en) * | 2017-11-13 | 2018-04-06 | 成都蓝景信息技术有限公司 | A kind of moos index analysis system based on text classification |
| US20210065296A1 (en) * | 2018-03-26 | 2021-03-04 | Ziggurat Technologies, Inc. | Intelligent trading and risk management framework |
| CN108876604A (en) * | 2018-05-25 | 2018-11-23 | 平安科技（深圳）有限公司 | Stock market's Risk Forecast Method, device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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