CN105931408B - The Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line - Google Patents
The Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line Download PDFInfo
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- CN105931408B CN105931408B CN201610355448.4A CN201610355448A CN105931408B CN 105931408 B CN105931408 B CN 105931408B CN 201610355448 A CN201610355448 A CN 201610355448A CN 105931408 B CN105931408 B CN 105931408B
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08B—SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
- G08B17/00—Fire alarms; Alarms responsive to explosion
- G08B17/005—Fire alarms; Alarms responsive to explosion for forest fires, e.g. detecting fires spread over a large or outdoors area
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line, including step：S1：The target area that overhead transmission line passes through is divided into grid；S2：Historical satellite monitoring hotspot density according to each grid, predicts the hotspot density of each grid same period in future.The present invention utilizes latest data rolling forecast same period mountain fire density, constantly tell it is old take in the fresh, predictablity rate is high, can carry out power network mountain fire and become more meticulous prediction, and prediction spatial resolution can effectively instruct the preventing and treating of power network mountain fire up to 2.5 × 2.5km.
Description
Technical field
Prevented and reduced natural disasters technical field the present invention relates to power system, more particularly to overhead transmission line mountain fire density it is pre-
Survey method.
Background technology
Mankind's activity frequently mountain area field is passed through in overhead transmission line corridor extensively, the production such as burnt the grass on waste land by the people, visited a grave
Easily there is mountain fire on a large scale in the life influence of fiery custom, line corridor, a plurality of circuit is caused while power failure of tripping, when serious
Trigger mains breakdown.Existing mountain fire disposal options are mostly passively carried out after mountain fire generation, it is difficult to transfer enough in time
Manpower and materials are prevented and treated, and disposal efficiency is not high.In order to improve the respond of power network reply burst mountain fire, development power network is needed badly
Mountain fire prediction and warning works.
At present, the prediction of meteorological department or forest department to forest fire is main from weather conditions, judge it is following certain
The possibility that extensive area fire occurs.And overhead transmission line mountain fire is due to following two reasons, it is impossible to only from day air horn
Degree carries out long-range prediction：First, mountain fire generation is multi-point and wide-ranging, circuit distribution is intricate, bulk zone is carried out general pre-
Survey, it is impossible to instruct specific mountain fire preventing and controlling conscientiously；Second, mountain fire occurs to be influenceed greatly, with respect to weather by artificial burning things which may cause a fire disaster factor
For condition this well-known factor, people are more concerned with artificial burning things which may cause a fire disaster factor.
Therefore, in order to realize the prediction that becomes more meticulous of overhead transmission line mountain fire, it is necessary to by estimation range mesh refinement, improve prediction
Spatial resolution.Meanwhile, mountain fire generation " possibility " being quantified as mountain fire " number of times " occurs, the practicality that will be predicted is further
Increase.
The content of the invention
It is current gloomy to solve present invention aim at providing a kind of Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line
The prediction of forest fires calamity is not main strong from weather conditions directiveness and can not predict artificial burning things which may cause a fire disaster factor technical problem.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides a kind of overhead transmission line mountain fire density Forecasting Methodology, including
Following steps：
S1：The target area that overhead transmission line passes through is divided into grid；
S2：Historical satellite monitoring hotspot density according to each grid, predicts the hotspot density of each grid same period in future.
As the further improvement of the method for the present invention：
After the completion of step S2, method also includes：
S3：According to the hotspot density of the following same period, and according to overhead transmission line mountain fire principle of grading, power network mountain fire is issued
Early warning information.
Overhead transmission line mountain fire principle of grading includes following Pyatyi：
One-level, average daily hotspot density 0~1 10-4·km-2, without hazardous area；
Two grades, average daily hotspot density 1~2 10-4·km-2, low hazardous area；
Three-level, average daily hotspot density 2~5 10-4·km-2, relatively hazardous area；
Level Four, average daily hotspot density 5~10 10-4·km-2, hazardous area；
Pyatyi, average daily 10~∞ of hotspot density 10-4·km-2, high-risk danger zone.
Step S1, comprises the following steps：
S101：The shape of the target area passed through according to overhead transmission line, increases neighboring area and supplements target area
It is rectangle；
S102：Rectangle is divided into m rows n row, the m × n grid of γ × γ longitudes and latitudes is obtained, base latitude is γ0。
Step S2 is comprised the following steps：
S201：If the satellite monitoring focus number of grid under the conditions of certain weather, underground properties is f, the value same period
History value is f1, f2..., ft..., the average for obtaining M numbers is elapsed by data order pointwise, obtain moving average：
Wherein, M be rolling average item number, M≤t,；ForecatIt is the moving average in t cycles；ftIt is t periodic fevers
The observation of points.
In formula (1), when t reach a cycles, a new data is increased by, removes a legacy data, constantly substitute pre-
Surveying formula is：
S202：According to the area S of each grid of m rowsm, with reference to formula (2), obtain m rows each grid forecasting focuses
DensityFor：
In formula, earth mean radius R0=6371km,It is prediction hotspot density, unit is a km-2。
The area of m rows each grids is calculated by equation below：
Wherein,It is the equal width of each grid in m rows, amIt is the length of side of each grid in m rows.
M≥10。
After the completion of once predicting, focus number is monitored to prediction hotspot density according to real satelliteRepaiied
Just, correction value denm' (t+1) participates in predicting next time.
The invention has the advantages that：
The Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line of the invention, using latest data rolling forecast same period mountain fire
Density, constantly tell it is old take in the fresh, predictablity rate is high, can carry out power network mountain fire and become more meticulous prediction, and prediction spatial resolution is up to 2.5
× 2.5km, can effectively instruct power network mountain fire to prevent and treat.
In addition to objects, features and advantages described above, the present invention also has other objects, features and advantages.
Below with reference to accompanying drawings, the present invention is further detailed explanation.
Brief description of the drawings
The accompanying drawing for constituting the part of the application is used for providing a further understanding of the present invention, schematic reality of the invention
Apply example and its illustrate, for explaining the present invention, not constitute inappropriate limitation of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings：
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of the overhead transmission line of the preferred embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of the mesh generation of the target area of the preferred embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is that the length of side of 1 ° × 1 ° longitude and latitude grid (Northern Hemisphere) of the preferred embodiment of the present invention calculates schematic diagram；
Fig. 4 is that the overhead transmission line mountain fire of the preferred embodiment of the present invention occurs density and becomes more meticulous forecast model schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 is that the overhead transmission line mountain fire of the preferred embodiment of the present invention occurs density and becomes more meticulous prediction principle schematic diagram；
Fig. 6 is 4 days April in the 2014 power network mountain fire density forecast calculation result figure of the preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Embodiments of the invention are described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, but the present invention can be defined by the claims
Multitude of different ways with covering is implemented.
Referring to Fig. 1, the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line of the invention is comprised the following steps：
S1：The target area that overhead transmission line passes through is divided into grid；
S2：Historical satellite monitoring hotspot density according to each grid, predicts the hotspot density of each grid same period in future.
Satellite monitoring focus number is mainly influenceed by weather, time period, underground properties, therefore in similar weather, underlay
Under the conditions of region feature, can monitor hotspot density according to historical satellite to predict following same period hotspot density.Above-mentioned steps are utilized
Latest data (historical satellite monitoring hotspot density data constantly update) rolling forecast same period mountain fire density, constantly tell it is old take in the fresh,
Predictablity rate is high, can carry out power network mountain fire and become more meticulous prediction, and prediction spatial resolution can be instructed effectively up to 2.5 × 2.5km
Power network mountain fire is prevented and treated.
In actual applications, the method is also extendible as follows：
S1：Referring to Fig. 2, the shape of the target area passed through according to overhead transmission line increases neighboring area by target area
Domain supplement is rectangle；Rectangle is divided into m rows n row, the m × n grid of γ × γ longitudes and latitudes is obtained, base latitude is γ0.Prediction
The interior points of not flaring up of each grid, you can obtain following mountain fire and density occurs.
S2：If the satellite monitoring focus number of grid under the conditions of certain weather, underground properties is f, the value same period is gone through
History value is f1, f2..., ft..., the average for obtaining M numbers is elapsed by data order pointwise, obtain moving average：
Wherein, M is rolling average item number, and M≤t generally takes M >=10；ForecatIt is the moving average in t cycles；ft
It is the observation of t periodic fevers points.
In formula (1), when t reach a cycles, a new data is increased by, removes a legacy data, constantly substitute pre-
Surveying formula is：
The earth is considered as standard ball, with the increase of latitude, the parallel of latitude is constantly reduced, and circle of longitude size is fixed.
Know earth mean radius R0=6371km.Ignore the influence of surface relief degree, from geometric knowledge, along any warp of earth surface
Degree line across 1 ° of latitude pass through apart from d1It is constant (as shown in Figure 3)：
Along any latitude line of earth surface across 1 ° of longitude passed through apart from d2It is relevant with latitude α：
From formula (3), in m rows, each side length of element amFor：
am=d1γ≈111γ (5)
Ignore the length difference of the length of side and the lower length of side on single grid, from formula (4), in m rows, each grid is following
B widem1With upper hem width bm2Respectively：
Then in m rows, each grid is wideFor：
Then the area of each grid of m rows is：
According to the area S of each grid of m rowsm, with reference to formula (2), obtain m rows each grid forecasting hotspot densitiesFor：
In formula,It is prediction hotspot density, unit is a km-2。
Operational capability according to computer selects the size of γ with application demand.For example, making γ=0.0225 °, prediction is empty
Between resolution ratio up to 2.5 × 2.5km, this is the full accuracy of current operationization prediction.
In order to keep the accuracy of subsequent prediction, focus should be monitored according to real satellite after the period predicted each time
It is several rightIt is modified, correction value denm' (t+1) participates in predicting next time.Forecast model and schematic diagram are respectively as schemed
4th, shown in Fig. 5.
S3：There is the density (hotspot density predicted in the mountain fire according to the following same period), and according to built on stilts
Transmission line forest fire principle of grading, issues power network mountain fire early warning information.
Overhead transmission line mountain fire principle of grading is with reference to table 1：
Using the above method in 2014 the Ching Ming Festival during the province overhead transmission line mountain fire such as Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei it is pre-
Survey.
During Clear and Bright in 2014, State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company has issued lake at center of preventing and reducing natural disasters to State Grid Corporation of China
South, the orange early warning of mountain fire of Jiangxi provinces, and suggestion and measure is targetedly given, the Ching Ming Festival effectively directing Guo Wang companies
The overhead transmission line mountain fire preventing and controlling of period.Hunan Province takes scene fire extinguishing under the guidance that mountain fire forecasts, in time and arranges
Apply, the record of the tripping operation of the whole province's power network mountain fire zero during creating without Clear and Bright on rain day.Detailed process is as follows：
Analysis weather finds, the Ching Ming Festival 2014 during Hunan, Jiangxi weather it is fine, it is clear using history 10 years (M=10)
Hunan, Jiangxi day hotspot density data under the conditions of bright period weather is fine, to identical land-surface characteristics area using mountain fire hair
Raw density hours sequential forecasting models, calculate two province's various regions mountain fires and density occur.γ=0.0225 ° is made, from formula (5), am
≈ 2.5km, that is, predict spatial resolution up to 2.5 × 2.5km.
Using power network mountain fire density forecast Chao Suan centers (130 TFlops of calculating speed/second) calculate Hunan remove Zhangjiajie, Hunan
There is density two in the average daily mountain fire of April 4 to 5 in the most area outside west, Changsha, and Jiangxi middle and south most area
More than level, many areas have exceeded 5 10-4·km-2(level Four), it is local to have exceeded 10 10-4·km-2(Pyatyi), it is such as attached
Shown in Fig. 6.
Then, custom is offered a sacrifice to gods or ancestors with reference to two provinces, gives early warning suggestion：Because Hunan, the weather of Jiangxi April 4 to 5 are fine,
At a time when burning incense and offer sacrifices at the graves of one's ancestors on "Qingming" the high-incidence season, there is mountain fire possibility near overhead transmission line big, it is proposed that Hunan, Jiangxi provinces issue overhead transmission line
The orange early warning of mountain fire.By checking, that a situation arises is very identical with early warning conclusion for actual mountain fire.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention are the foregoing is only, is not intended to limit the invention, for the skill of this area
For art personnel, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.It is all within the spirit and principles in the present invention, made any repair
Change, equivalent, improvement etc., should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of a kind of overhead transmission line, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
S1：The target area that overhead transmission line passes through is divided into grid, is comprised the following steps：
S101：The shape of the target area passed through according to overhead transmission line, increases neighboring area and supplements the target area
It is rectangle；
S102：Rectangle is divided into m rows n row, the m × n grid of γ × γ longitudes and latitudes is obtained, base latitude is γ0；
S2：Historical satellite monitoring hotspot density according to each grid, the hotspot density of the prediction same period in each grid future,
Comprise the following steps：
S201：If the satellite monitoring focus number of grid under the conditions of certain weather, underground properties is f, the value same period history
It is f to be worth1,f2,…,ft..., the average of M numbers is obtained by data order pointwise passage, obtain moving average：
Wherein, M is rolling average item number, M≤t；ForecatIt is the moving average in t cycles；ftIt is t periodic fevers points
Observation；
In formula (1), when t reach a cycles, a new data is increased by, removes a legacy data, constantly substituting must predict public affairs
Formula is：
S202：According to the area S of each grid of m rowsm, SmIt is calculated by equation below：
Wherein,It is the equal width of each grid in m rows, amIt is the length of side of each grid in m rows；
With reference to formula (2), m rows each grid forecasting hotspot densities is obtainedFor：
In formula, earth mean radius R0=6371km,It is prediction hotspot density, unit is a km-2。
2. the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
After the completion of S2, methods described also includes：
S3：According to the hotspot density of the following same period, and according to overhead transmission line mountain fire principle of grading, power network mountain fire is issued
Early warning information.
3. the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described built on stilts
Transmission line forest fire principle of grading includes following Pyatyi：
One-level, average daily hotspot density 0~1 10-4·km-2, without hazardous area；
Two grades, average daily hotspot density 1~2 10-4·km-2, low hazardous area；
Three-level, average daily hotspot density 2~5 10-4·km-2, relatively hazardous area；
Level Four, average daily hotspot density 5~10 10-4·km-2, hazardous area；
Pyatyi, average daily 10~∞ of hotspot density 10-4·km-2, high-risk danger zone.
4. the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the M >=
10。
5. the Forecasting Methodology of the mountain fire density of overhead transmission line according to claim 3, it is characterised in that once pre-
After the completion of survey, focus number is monitored to the prediction hotspot density according to real satelliteIt is modified, correction value
denm' (t+1) participates in predicting next time.
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| AU2017203361A AU2017203361B1 (en) | 2016-05-25 | 2017-05-19 | Method and system for predicting density of wild fire for overhead transmission lines |
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| CN107590563B (en) * | 2017-09-07 | 2021-03-23 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Power grid mountain fire disaster risk distribution map drawing method and system |
| CN107590940B (en) * | 2017-09-08 | 2020-09-01 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Fine prediction method and system for mountain fire of ultra-high voltage transmission line |
| CN107704713B (en) * | 2017-10-31 | 2021-01-29 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Power transmission line forest fire distribution evaluation method |
| CN112465257A (en) * | 2020-12-08 | 2021-03-09 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Mountain fire forecasting and correcting method for power grid intensive power transmission channel based on mountain fire condition |
| CN112668927B (en) * | 2021-01-07 | 2023-11-24 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Dynamic mountain fire risk assessment method considering human factors based on clustering method |
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| CN103971483A (en) * | 2014-05-08 | 2014-08-06 | 国家电网公司 | Method for early warning power grid transmission line mountain fire intelligently in graded mode |
| CN103971177A (en) * | 2014-05-08 | 2014-08-06 | 国家电网公司 | Prediction method for power transmission line mountain fire caused by multiple factors |
| CN103942737A (en) * | 2014-05-09 | 2014-07-23 | 国家电网公司 | Drawing method of historical forest fire distribution of power transmission line |
| CN104268655B (en) * | 2014-09-30 | 2016-05-25 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of transmission line forest fire method for early warning |
| CN104820875B (en) * | 2015-05-19 | 2016-03-02 | 湖南省湘电试研技术有限公司 | A kind of transmission line forest fire becomes more meticulous density forecasting procedure |
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