CN105930954A - Three-layer risk assessment-based drought disaster risk coping method - Google Patents
Three-layer risk assessment-based drought disaster risk coping method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a three-layer risk assessment drought disaster risk coping method. The method includes the following steps that: regulatable feature and regulation approach analysis is performed on drought disaster risk factors from the four aspects of dangerousness, exposure degree, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capability involved in a drought formation process; a drought disaster one-layer risk assessment system is established; a drought disaster two-layer risk assessment system is established; a drought disaster three-layer risk assessment system is established; and drought risk coping strategies are put forward. Based on historical evolution rules and future evolution trends of drought disasters, the drought disaster risk coping method is established according to drought disaster risk region division and risk prediction results from aspects such as urban population size, regional water resource carrying capacity, industrial structure adjustment, water conservancy project group optimized layout, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity construction, soil and water resource regulation and risk prevention and control management. With the method adopted, regional drought risks can be lowered level by level.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of Droughts risk resolution field, particularly relate to a kind of based on three layers of risk assessment
Droughts risk resolution method.
Background technology
Under climate change and the effect of human activity, worldwide arid totally present take place frequently, multiple,
Running fire and concurrent situation.Since 1900, whole world Droughts has caused more than 1,100 ten thousand people dead, and 20
More than hundred million people are affected.Immediate and mid-term, China's Loss Caused by Meteorological Disasters accounts for the 61% of whole natural disaster loss,
And Droughts loss accounts for the 55% of Loss Caused by Meteorological Disasters.Arid not only occurs on the north that water resource is relatively deficient
Area, the most frequently occurs in the southern area of water resource relative abundance.In recent years, southwest and the middle and lower reach of Yangtze River
Area all there occurs the drought event of large area, long duration.Over nearly 50 years, it is being main with global warming
Under the climate change of background, Haihe River of Huang-Huai-Hai and the Huanghe valley occur in that the significantly decay of precipitation,
Even more serious, to region along with the exploitation of water resource, Haihe River and the decay of Huanghe valley water resource
Ecological environment produces baneful influence, becomes the important restriction factor of Sustainable Socioeconomic Development；Weather simultaneously
The weather system stability that change causes declines, and makes the extreme climate Hydrological Events such as Huang-Huai-Hai arid occur
Frequency, coverage and influence degree all increased, cause bigger casualty loss, become impact
One of important risk of country's Study on Long-team Strategy.Therefore, the risk resolution carrying out Droughts has weight
The function and significance wanted.
Droughts reply mainly includes engineering measure and non-engineering measure.Engineering measure mainly includes water-retention work
Journey, diversion works, water lift engineering, water diversion project, water-saving irrigation project, emergent water source project etc.；Non-work
Journey measure mainly includes organizational framework, rules and regulations, drought resisting rule, drought relief options, information management, funds
And matenal support, drought resisting service organization, drought resisting water regulation, coping with agriculture drought water-saving technology etc..At present, state
Inside and outside in terms of arid reply, carry out a lot of research, and achieve certain achievement.Additionally, Mark Howden,
The states such as Roger S.Pulwarty, Donald A.Wilhite, Zengchao Hao, Mahmoud Solh
Inside and outside scholar has carried out arid reply and the Mitigation methods research of many whole world large scale.Meanwhile, Roger C.
The scholars such as Stone, Marzieh Keshavarz, F.Sahnoune, Xinyu Fu, Hmma Habiba are also
For the whole world by drought affected serious Africa, the U.S., Australia, Iran, Brazil, Zimbabwe,
The practical situation of the state such as Bangladesh, Algeria is to the arid reply under its climate change background, adaptation
And Mitigation methods analyzed.
The main deficiency of these methods is many based on control measures, lacks from water resource system entirety angle
The research of the comprehensive reply of arid, the technical cue research to arid reply is less.But be as climate change and
Going deep into of the effect of human activity, water cycle process presents significantly " natural-artificial " binary drive characteristic,
Building of hydraulic engineering and irrigating facility, changes the spatial-temporal distribution characteristic of Droughts in certain area,
Said method is difficult to embody polynary, the complex characteristic of Droughts.Therefore, " shelling Radix Crotalariae szemoensis layer by layer " should be used
Form, is layered key area and the emphasis link of distinct risk resolution, and the controllable combining risks and assumptions is special
Property, the adaptive performance of social economic system is combined with Engineering System construction, improves complicated ring further
The comprehensive countermeasure of aridity risk under border.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is that the deficiency for existing Droughts countermeasure, proposes a kind of based on three
The Droughts risk resolution method of layer risk assessment.
To achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is: a kind of based on three layers of risk assessment
Droughts risk resolution method, method step is as follows,
1) Droughts risks and assumptions is related to the danger in Droughts forming process, degrees of exposure, fragility
Property and this four levels of ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters carry out controllable characteristic and regulatory pathway analysis,
Wherein, danger mainly include precipitation, Jilin Province, arid occurrence frequency, landform, the gradient,
River density, water conservation；
Degrees of exposure index relates generally to population, GDP, three, the arable land factor；
Vulnerability inder mainly includes vegetation drought-resistance ability；
Capacity index of preventing and reducing natural disasters mainly include Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, storage capacity, early-warning and predicting ability,
Water resource emergency scheduling；
2) one layer of risk evaluation system of Droughts is set up
Hydraulic engineering condition because of the present circumstance and Future Climate Change affect and Future Society economic development planning, open
Open up one layer of Droughts risk assessment, the aridity risk of comprehensive exposed region, be also that region is contingent
Risks, identifies the population of each high, medium and low risk area, GDP and arable land distribution, for risk goal of regulation and control system
Foundation is provided surely；
3) two layers of risk evaluation system of Droughts are set up
The major risk factor of two layers of regulation and control include, the population in region and the growth rate of GDP and scale and
Vegetation drought-resistance ability；
4) three layers of risk evaluation system of Droughts are set up
The major risk factor of three layers of regulation and control includes, Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, storage capacity, early-warning and predicting energy
Power, water resource emergency scheduling；
5) Droughts risk resolution strategy is proposed.
Coping strategy for two layers of risk of step 3 is, by the adjustment of region self the aridity risk factor with
Optimize, reduce regional drought risk；Coping strategy for two layers of risk of step 4 is to pass through engineering measure
And non-engineering measure, the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters of General Promotion regional drought disaster, it is achieved regional drought risk is adjusted
Control and reply.
As preferably, in step 1, subtract with taking precautions against natural calamities according to the vulnerability under predicted exposure degree and tale quale
Calamity level, the risk analysis scheme of two schemes of employing: 1) high-risk scheme, use former years and prediction
The high-risk sight that time precipitation is minimum and Drought equivalent is maximum；2) prediction scheme, uses the prediction time
Prediction precipitation and Drought equivalent sight.
As preferably, in step 2, step 3 and step 4, use danger under changing environment, vulnerability,
Exposed property, Droughts theory of risk assessment and the method for ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters carry out Droughts risk assessment,
The expression formula of Droughts risk is:
R=f (H, E, V, C)=(H × E × V)/C (1)
Wherein, R is calamity source, and H is that Flood inducing factors is dangerous, and E is exposed property, and V is that hazard-affected body is fragile
Property, C is the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters.
As preferably, in step 3 and step 4, three layers, arid calamity after two layers of Droughts risks regulation and control
Difference between evil risk and one layer of Droughts risk evaluation result is the regulating effect of each layer.
Compared with prior art, it is an advantage of the current invention that: the present invention is with " natural-artificial " dualistic water cycle
Theory is served as theme, and historical development regularity based on Droughts and future evolution trend, in conjunction with Droughts wind
Danger zone is drawn and risk profile result, adjusts from population city size, regional water resources bearing capacity, the industrial structure
Whole, hydraulic engineering group optimizes layout, capacity building of preventing and reducing natural disasters, water and soil resources regulation and control, risk prevention system management
Etc. aspect, build Droughts risk resolution method, it is achieved step by step reduce regional drought risk, for arid should
To providing technical support.Can be widely applied to basin/regional drought calamity source reply, be particularly well-suited to the Yellow River and Huai He River
Haiti district Droughts risk resolution.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is Droughts risk resolution schematic diagrams based on three layers of risk assessment；
Fig. 2 is one layer, Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts risk evaluation result (prediction scheme)；
Fig. 3 is one layer, Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts risk evaluation result (excessive risk scheme)；
Fig. 4 is two layers, Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts risk evaluation result (prediction scheme)；
Fig. 5 is two layers, Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts risk evaluation result (excessive risk scheme)；
Fig. 6 is three layers, Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts risk evaluation result (prediction scheme)；
Fig. 7 is three layers, Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts risk evaluation result (excessive risk scheme).
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described below.
Embodiment: a kind of Droughts risk resolution methods based on three layers of risk assessment, chooses Droughts
The Huang-Huai-Hai taken place frequently carries out empirical research, and method step is as follows,
(1) Droughts risks and assumptions controllable characteristic and regulatory pathway analysis
Droughts risks and assumptions relates to the four levels of Droughts forming process: danger, degrees of exposure,
Vulnerability and ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters.Danger include precipitation (Jilin Province, arid occurrence frequency), landform,
The aspects such as the gradient, river density, water conservation, these factors mostly are the basin natural quality factor, Duo Shuowei
The factor that can not regulate and control, only partial factors can be able to be regulated and controled by engineering measure to a certain extent, as
By water and soil conservation, concede the land to forestry and grass, build the engineerings such as forests for water supply conservation, cut down Flood, increase
Dry season runoff and water supply.
Degrees of exposure index relates to population, GDP, 3, the arable land factor, because arrangement of social is difficult in real time
Regulation and control, and carry out local directed complete set in planning aspect only.Such as the Development Distribution for water deficiency type city, answer
Moderate control city size, should not develop the large size city of concentration, and regulate and control population size simultaneously,
Strict industry access threshold in economic development layout, limits the development of highly water intensive type industry.
Vulnerability inder mainly includes vegetation drought-resistance ability, can regulate and control to a certain extent, the most right
Can not regulate and control in natural vegetation, and for artificial vegetation, then can carry out selectivity according to regional drought characteristic
Plantation, the artificial vegetation that more options drought-resistance ability is stronger, the drought-resistance ability being increased artificial vegetation by appropriateness is reached
Effect to reply regional drought.
Capacity index of preventing and reducing natural disasters includes that Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, storage capacity, early-warning and predicting ability, water provide
The aspects such as source emergency scheduling, all can be regulated and controled by engineering measure, are the main of Droughts risk resolution
Control measures.By water storage project construction such as water-saving transformation in irrigation district, high-efficiency water-saving Technique Popularizing, reservoir, standby
With water source construction, strengthen the side such as dry spell hydraulic engineering joint debugging operation and regional drought early-warning and predicting capacity building
Face, can improve the ability of region reply Droughts risk largely.Droughts risks and assumptions can
Modulating properties and regulatory pathway see table 1,
Table 1
Subtract with taking precautions against natural calamities according to the vulnerability under predicted exposure degree (the year two thousand thirty) and tale quale (2010)
Calamity level, the danger of two schemes of employing: 1) high-risk scheme, use 1961-2010 and prediction
The high-risk sight that the year two thousand thirty precipitation is minimum and Drought equivalent is maximum；2) prediction scheme, uses the year two thousand thirty
Prediction precipitation and Drought equivalent sight.High-risk scheme is least favorable scheme.
(2) one layer of risk assessment of Droughts
The purpose of one layer of risk assessment is the Droughts risk of abundant exposed region.Hydraulic engineering because of the present circumstance
Condition and Future Climate Change affect and Future Society economic development planning, carry out one layer of Droughts risk and comment
Estimate, the aridity risk of comprehensive exposed region, be also the contingent greateset risk in region, identify each height, in,
The population in low-risk district, GDP and arable land distribution etc., formulate for risk goal of regulation and control and provide foundation；One layer of risk
Analytical plan design sees table 2,
Table 2
According to the Huang-Huai-Hai aridity risk evaluation result being calculated under two schemes, see Fig. 2 and Fig. 3,
Under prediction situation: it is interval that Droughts medium or high risk district, the Huanghe valley is concentrated mainly on river bank to gantry under the Yellow River,
And headwaters region, tree rings and Datonghe River region.Droughts medium or high risk district, Haihe River concentrate on the Yongdinghe River and
The upstream in the Luanhe River, and northern three territory districts.And Basin of Huaihe River entirety Droughts risk level is relatively low.Phase
Than prediction sight Droughts risk distribution, during under high-risk sight, Huang-Huai-Hai entirety Droughts is in
More than risk level, the especially regional drought risk such as Middle Yellow River source region, Hetao Plain is extremely serious.
(3) two layers of risk assessment of Droughts
The purpose of two layers of risk assessment is the adjustment by region self arid regulatory factor and optimization, reduces district
Territory aridity risk.The major risk factor of two layers of regulation and control include: the growth rate of population and GDP and scale,
Vegetation drought-resistance ability.By adjusting in planning aspect and controlling industrial pattern and population, urban development scale,
Adjust and increase the stronger artificial vegetation's area of drought-resistance ability and distribution, reduce Droughts to a certain extent
Risk, it is achieved substantially meet the requirement of socio-economic development objectives；
On the basis of one layer of risk analysis of Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts, firstly for arid high risk area
Population speedup be controlled reduce its risk exposure；Secondly, easy nonirrigated farmland district or arid are covered
In cover region, existing grain producing region, adjusts the pattern of farming of crop as far as possible, with drought resisting, drought-enduring beans,
Tuber crops are main, and good aqueous crop is auxiliary；Such as arid area of coverage Shizuishan is to river mouth town north south bank, interior
The areas such as stream district then need to carry out the adjustment of Crop Planting Structure.On the other hand, it is considered to along with agricultural breeding etc.
Technology improves, and following crop drought resistance drought-resistance ability promotes, and reduces area arid vulnerability.Huang-Huai-Hai
Two layers of risk analysis conceptual design see table 3,
Table 3
According to aridity risk key element after adjusting, the Huang-Huai-Hai aridity risk being calculated under two schemes is commented
Estimating result, see Fig. 4 and Fig. 5, two schemes aridity risk level all significantly reduces on the whole.
Prediction scheme: after two layers of risk regulation and control, be in the area of excessive risk subregion, by original one layer of wind
13.2 ten thousand km that danger is evaluated2It is reduced to 4.1 ten thousand km2, medium or high risk area is by 32.6 ten thousand km2It is reduced to 20.8
Ten thousand km2, apoplexy danger zone area is by 54.9 ten thousand km2Increase to 42.8 ten thousand km2, medium to low-risk district area is by 39.3
Ten thousand km2Increase to 47.9 ten thousand km2, low-risk district area is by 13.2 ten thousand km2Increase to 29.8 ten thousand km2, middle height
Risk area in low following risk transfer, medium or high risk district, Huang-Huai-Hai area is dropped to by 56.16%
37.29%.The above In The Middle Reaches in the Upper Reaches of Wei River region, the Huanghe valley and gantry is main by original medium or high risk
It is reduced to based on risk and medium to low-risk.Downstream, the Haihe basin Yongdinghe River, Ziyahe River and Nan Canal are equal
It is changed into medium to low-risk by original risk.The West, lake of Basin of Huaihe River and south, king freshwater mussel interval bank are by risk
It is reduced to medium to low-risk.
Excessive risk scheme: after two layers of risk regulation and control, be in the area of excessive risk subregion, by original one layer
13.1 ten thousand km of risk assessment2It is reduced to 9.1 ten thousand km2, medium or high risk area is by 67.8 ten thousand km2It is reduced to
44.6 ten thousand km2, apoplexy danger zone area is by 47.7 ten thousand km2Increase to 56.0 ten thousand km2, medium to low-risk district area by
14.0 ten thousand km2Increase to 28.7 ten thousand km2, low-risk district area is by 1.4 ten thousand km2Increase to 5.7 ten thousand km2,
Medium or high risk area in low following risk transfer, medium or high risk district, Huang-Huai-Hai area by 56.16% decline
To 37.29%.The area such as the Fenhe river basin of the Huanghe valley, Jing river basin, Bei Luohe and the Upper Reaches of Wei River is by former
It is main that the medium or high risk come is reduced to medium to low-risk.Form sediment and conquer east former and Nan Canal downstream in Haihe basin Baiyang Lake
It is main that Plain is changed into risk by medium or high risk.North, Basin of Huaihe River king freshwater mussel interval bank, north, freshwater mussel flood interval bank
Risk is reduced to medium to low-risk.
(4) three layers of risk assessment of Droughts
The purpose of three layers of risk assessment is by engineering measure and non-engineering measure, improves regional drought wind comprehensively
Danger adaptibility to response.The major risk factor of three layers of regulation and control include: Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, storage capacity, pre-
Alert prediction ability, water resource emergency scheduling.Mainly by improving Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, building water transfer
Engineering, build hydraulic engineering, strengthen scheduling, management and early-warning and predicting ability etc., General Promotion regional drought
The ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters of disaster, it is achieved the regulation and control of regional drought risk and reply；Three layers, Huang-Huai-Hai risk is divided
Analysis conceptual design sees table 4,
Table 4
On the basis of two layers of risk analysis of Huang-Huai-Hai Droughts, for Droughts high risk area
Territory, and the area that hydraulic engineering construction is the most perfect, by newly-built or enlarging hydraulic engineering, improve water conservancy work
Journey system, improves area utilizable capacity amount and water efficiency of irrigation further.Simultaneously, water conservancy is improved
The management level of engineering group, strengthen area and prevent and reduce natural disasters ability.
According to aridity risk key element after adjusting, the Huang-Huai-Hai aridity risk being calculated under two schemes is commented
Estimating result, see Fig. 6 and Fig. 7, two schemes aridity risk level all significantly reduces on the whole.
Prediction scheme: the Nei Liu district of the Huanghe valley and Wubao, the Yellow River right bank are main being changed into by medium or high risk
Risk is main.Upstream, the Haihe basin Luanhe River is reduced to medium to low-risk by medium or high risk.Basin of Huaihe River entirety is done
Drought evil risk level change is little, is in medium to low-risk level.After three layers regulate and control, it is in excessive risk
The area of subregion is by 2.9 ten thousand km of original two layers of risk assessment2It is reduced to 2.5 ten thousand km2, face, medium or high risk district
Long-pending by 20.8 ten thousand km2It is reduced to 19.9 ten thousand km2, apoplexy danger zone area is by 42.8 ten thousand km2Increase to 43.9 ten thousand
km2, medium to low-risk district area change is little, medium or high risk area in low following risk transfer, Huang-Huai-Hai
Medium or high risk district of district area is dropped to 15.58% by 16.38%.
Excessive risk scheme: middle and upper reaches medium or high risk region, Huanghe valley large area is changed into risk level.Sea
The medium or high risk on the ground such as upstream, the river valley Yongdinghe River, northern three territory districts is reduced to risk level.Basin of Huaihe River
The area such as south, king freshwater mussel interval bank, lane housing medium or high risk is reduced to risk.After three layers of risk regulation and control,
It is in the area 9.1 ten thousand km by original two layers of risk assessment of excessive risk subregion2It is reduced to 8.6 ten thousand km2In,
High risk area's area is by 44.6 ten thousand km2It is reduced to 39.9 ten thousand km2, apoplexy danger zone area is by 56.0 ten thousand km2Increase
Add as 61.3 ten thousand km2, medium to low-risk district area change is little, medium or high risk area in low following risk turn
Moving, medium or high risk district, Huang-Huai-Hai area is dropped to 16.38% by 25.47%.
(5) Droughts risk resolution strategy is proposed
According to the analysis of step (4), Droughts risk resolution strategy can be proposed,
In step (2), step (3) and step (4), use " four factors " under changing environment (dangerous,
Vulnerability, exposed property, ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters) Droughts theory of risk assessment and method carry out arid calamity
Evil risk assessment.The expression formula of Droughts risk is:
R=f (H, E, V, C)=(H × E × V)/C
(1)
Wherein, R is calamity source, and H is that Flood inducing factors is dangerous, and E is exposed property, and V is hazard-affected body vulnerability, C
For the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters.In step (3) and step (4), three layers, after the regulation and control of two layers of Droughts risk
Droughts risk and one layer of Droughts risk evaluation result between difference be the regulating effect of each layer.
Droughts risk resolution schematic diagrams based on three layers of risk assessment see Fig. 1.
The comprehensive coping strategy of aridity risk of Huanghe valley reply climate change mainly includes following aspect: 1) add
Advance West Line of South-North Water Transfer Project, ancient virtuous reservoir engineering soon and draw the Chinese and help Weihe project planning and construction；2) optimize
Hydraulic engineering group dispatches；3) underground water source deposit strategy is implemented；4) water resource utilization efficiency and benefit are improved；
5) strengthen drought event early-warning and predicting capacity building, improve drought-resistant strategy service system.
The comprehensive coping strategy of aridity risk of Haihe basin reply climate change mainly includes following aspect: 1) mountain
Front groundwater reservoir construction, strengthens rain-flood resources and utilizes；2) optimize hydraulic engineering group's scheduling scheme, implement fine
Change scientific dispatch；3) widely popularize Water-saving agricultural technology, improve water resource utilization efficiency and benefit；4) close
Reason determines the agricultural irrigation fraction in region；5) construction area deep phreatic water strategic reserves system；6) push away
Enter Jing-jin-ji region integrated water resource distribution and arid countermeasure system construction.
The inventive method is served as theme with " natural-artificial " dualistic water cycle theory, history based on Droughts
Development law and future evolution trend, in conjunction with Droughts fire risk district and risk profile result, from population city
City's scale, regional water resources bearing capacity, industry restructuring, hydraulic engineering group optimizes layout, taking precautions against natural calamities subtracts
The aspects such as calamity capacity building, water and soil resources regulation and control, risk prevention system management, build Droughts risk resolution side
Method, it is achieved reduce regional drought risk step by step, provides technical support for arid reply.Above-mentioned conclusion explanation profit
The method proposed by the present invention sets up Droughts risk resolution methods based on three layers of risk assessment can be calibrated
Really analyze danger, exposed property, vulnerability and ability effect in Droughts is tackled of preventing and reducing natural disasters,
Can be next step arid coping strategy formulation offer auxiliary support, can be applicable in the item analysis of reality.
Above a kind of Droughts risk resolution methods based on three layers of risk assessment provided by the present invention are entered
Having gone exhaustive presentation, principle and the embodiment of the present invention are set forth by specific case used herein,
The explanation of above example is only intended to the thought of invention, the most all has
In place of change, change and improvement to the present invention help to understand method and the core concept thereof of the present invention；Meanwhile,
For one of ordinary skill in the art, change and improvement according to the present invention will be possible, without surpassing
Going out the spirit and scope of accessory claim defined, in sum, it is right that this specification content should not be construed as
The restriction of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a Droughts risk resolution method based on three layers of risk assessment, it is characterised in that: method walks
It is rapid as follows,
1) Droughts risks and assumptions is related to the danger in Droughts forming process, degrees of exposure, fragility
Property and this four levels of ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters carry out controllable characteristic and regulatory pathway analysis,
Wherein, danger mainly include precipitation, Jilin Province, arid occurrence frequency, landform, the gradient,
River density, water conservation；
Degrees of exposure index relates generally to population, GDP, three, the arable land factor；
Vulnerability inder mainly includes vegetation drought-resistance ability；
Capacity index of preventing and reducing natural disasters mainly include Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, storage capacity, early-warning and predicting ability,
Water resource emergency scheduling；
2) one layer of risk evaluation system of Droughts is set up
Hydraulic engineering condition because of the present circumstance and Future Climate Change affect and Future Society economic development planning, open
Open up one layer of Droughts risk assessment, the aridity risk of comprehensive exposed region, be also that region is contingent
Risks, identifies the population of each high, medium and low risk area, GDP and arable land distribution, for risk goal of regulation and control system
Foundation is provided surely；
3) two layers of risk evaluation system of Droughts are set up
The major risk factor of two layers of regulation and control include, the population in region and the growth rate of GDP and scale and
Vegetation drought-resistance ability；
4) three layers of risk evaluation system of Droughts are set up
The major risk factor of three layers of regulation and control includes, Water Resources Irrigation utilization ratio, storage capacity, early-warning and predicting energy
Power, water resource emergency scheduling；
5) Droughts risk resolution strategy is proposed.
A kind of Droughts risk resolution method based on three layers of risk assessment,
It is characterized in that: in step 5, the coping strategy for two layers of risk of step 3 is, is done by region self
The adjustment of drought risks and assumptions and optimization, reduce regional drought risk；Countermeasure is answered for two layers of risk of step 4
Slightly, by engineering measure and non-engineering measure, the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters of General Promotion regional drought disaster,
Feasible region aridity risk regulation and control and reply.
A kind of Droughts risk resolution method based on three layers of risk assessment,
It is characterized in that: in step 1, according to the vulnerability under predicted exposure degree and tale quale and preventing and reducing natural disasters
Level, the risk analysis scheme of two schemes of employing: 1) high-risk scheme, use former years and prediction year
The high-risk sight that part precipitation is minimum and Drought equivalent is maximum；2) prediction scheme, uses the pre-of prediction time
Survey precipitation and Drought equivalent sight.
A kind of Droughts risk resolution method based on three layers of risk assessment,
It is characterized in that: in step 2, step 3 and step 4, use danger under changing environment, vulnerability, cruelly
Dew property, Droughts theory of risk assessment and the method for ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters carry out Droughts risk assessment,
The expression formula of Droughts risk is:
R=f (H, E, V, C)=(H × E × V)/C (1)
Wherein, R is calamity source, and H is that Flood inducing factors is dangerous, and E is exposed property, and V is that hazard-affected body is fragile
Property, C is the ability of preventing and reducing natural disasters.
A kind of Droughts risk resolution method based on three layers of risk assessment,
It is characterized in that: in step 3 and step 4, three layers, Droughts after the regulation and control of two layers of Droughts risk
Difference between risk and one layer of Droughts risk evaluation result is the regulating effect of each layer.
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| ZA2016/08624A ZA201608624B (en) | 2016-04-08 | 2016-12-14 | A method of risk response to drought based on three-layer risk assessment |
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| CN112819312A (en) * | 2021-01-25 | 2021-05-18 | 华中科技大学 | Method and system for evaluating drought socioeconomic exposure degree under climate change scene |
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| CN113849763A (en) * | 2021-11-22 | 2021-12-28 | 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 | Winter wheat-summer corn drought disaster risk assessment method, storage medium and terminal |
| CN114781932A (en) * | 2022-06-16 | 2022-07-22 | 长江水利委员会长江科学院 | Zoning method for regional drought control, computer equipment and computer storage medium |
| CN116596303A (en) * | 2023-05-08 | 2023-08-15 | 广东省水利水电科学研究院 | Drought risk assessment and zoning method, system, medium, equipment and terminal |
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| ZA201608624B (en) | 2017-03-29 |
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