CN105913199A - Energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation method and device based on ellipsoidal model - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides an energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation method and an energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation device based on an ellipsoidal model, which relate to the field of regional information assessment. The energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation method comprises the steps of: establishing an ellipsoid analytical model in advance; utilizing the ellipsoid analytical model to adjust a coordination degree of environment and energy-economy when the energy and economy are coordinated, a coordination degree of economy and energy-economy when the energy and an environmental system are coordinated, and a coordination degree of energy and economy-environment when the economy and the environmental system are coordinated; and finally making the calculated coordination degrees of the energy, economy and environment more accurate.

Description

Energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation method and device based on ellipsoid model

Technical Field

The invention relates to the field of regional information evaluation, in particular to an ellipsoid model-based energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation method and device.

Background

With the rapid development of social Economy and the advance of industrialization, the problems of resource shortage and environmental pollution are increasingly highlighted, and people pay more and more attention to the coordinated development of Energy-Economy-Environment (3E). The energy is the foundation and guarantee of national economy and social development and is also the focus of international political, economic, military and foreign exchange attention at present; the upper-layer building is determined by economic foundation, which is the center of all development problems; the environment is an important basis for development and is the key of sustainable development of the economy and the society.

In which, how to determine the coordination degree of energy, economy and environment more reasonably and accurately is the basis for other theoretical researches, so how to determine the coordination degree of energy, economy and environment accurately becomes the key point.

Since the 3E system is a large and complex system, it is difficult to describe the real development level of each subsystem by using a linear structure of a single index. Therefore, some specific mathematical models are used in the related art to assist the analysis and calculation of the co-scheduling. Specifically, as in the related art, a cube model is used for analysis and calculation of the co-scheduling, but the analysis and calculation method is still not accurate enough.

That is, in the related art, the method of calculating the coordination of energy, economy and environment is not accurate enough.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a method and a device for calculating the coordination degree of energy, economy and environment based on an ellipsoid model, so as to improve the accuracy of calculating the coordination degree of energy, economy and environment.

In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an energy, economic and environmental coordination degree calculation method based on an ellipsoid model, including:

analyzing and obtaining the energy development speed V of the target region according to the historical data statistical table of the target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c；

The energy, economic and environmental co-scheduling of the target region is calculated according to the following formula,

$E(V_a,V_b,V_c)=\frac{m(V_a,V_b)*\mathrm{\α}+m(V_a,V_c)*\mathrm{\β}+m(V_b,V_c)*\mathrm{\γ}}{m(V_a,V_b)+m(V_a,V_c)+m(V_b,V_c)};$

wherein, V_aenergy development speed for target region, V_bIs the economic development speed of the target region, V_cThe environmental development speed of the target region.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a first possible implementation manner of the first aspect, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is obtained through analysis according to a calendar year data statistics table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cThe method comprises the following steps:

calculating the energy development speed V of the target region according to the following formula_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c：

$V_a=\frac{dA}{dt},V_b=\frac{dB}{dt},V_c=\frac{dC}{dt};$

Wherein t is the statistical age of the historical data statistical table, and A, B and C are curve fitting equations of the comprehensive development level values of the energy, the economy and the environment of the target region respectively.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a second possible implementation manner of the first aspect, where the energy development speed V of the target area is obtained through analysis according to a calendar year data statistics table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising: determining economic standard index data and a weighted value of the economic standard index data in an economic system of a target region by adopting a principal component analysis method, determining energy standard index data in an energy system of the target region and a weighted value of the energy standard index data, and determining environmental standard index data and a weighted value of the environmental standard index data in an environmental system of the target region;

calculating a numerical value of the economic comprehensive development level of the target region according to the determined numerical value of the economic standard index data and the weight value of the economic standard index data in a weighted calculation mode, and calculating a curve fitting equation of the economic comprehensive development level value in a fitting mode;

calculating a numerical value of the comprehensive energy development level of the target region according to the determined numerical value of the energy standard index data and the weight value of the energy standard index data in a weighted calculation mode, and calculating a curve fitting equation of the comprehensive energy development level value in a fitting mode;

and calculating a numerical value of the comprehensive development level of the environment of the target region according to the determined numerical value of the environmental standard index data and the weight value of the environmental standard index data in a weighted calculation mode, and calculating a curve fitting equation of the comprehensive development level value of the environment in a fitting mode.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a third possible implementation manner of the first aspect, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is obtained through analysis according to a calendar year data statistical table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

respectively calculating the values of the comprehensive development levels of energy, economy and environment according to the following formulas,

F＝Z×T；

wherein, F is an n multiplied by 1 matrix, each row represents the numerical value of the comprehensive development level of energy, economy and environment under the corresponding year, and n is the number of years obtained through the historical year data of the target region; z is an n multiplied by p matrix and represents energy, economy or environment standard index data calculated through a historical year data statistical table of a target region, T is a p multiplied by 1 matrix, each row represents a weight value under an index corresponding to the energy, the economy or the environment, and p is the number of indexes obtained through the historical year data of the target region.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a fourth possible implementation manner of the first aspect, where the energy development speed V of the target area is obtained through analysis according to a historical data statistics table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

calculating the weighted value of the energy, economic or environmental standard index data according to the following formula,

$T=\underset{j=1}{\overset{K}{\Σ}}{T}_j\×\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_j}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\λ}}_i},(i=1,2,\mathrm{...}K);$

$T_{ij}=\frac{p_{ij}}{\sqrt{{\mathrm{\λ}}_j}},(i=1,2,\mathrm{...},p,j=1,2,\mathrm{...}K);$

wherein, T_j＝(T_1j,T_2j,…T_ij…T_pj) (j 1,2 … K) represents the weight of j-th principal component in the first K principal components, K is the number of principal components, T is the weight of energy, economic or environmental standard index data, λ_kIs a characteristic root of the principal component, p ═ p_1j,p_2j,…p_ij,…p_pj) (j ═ 1,2, … K) is a factor load matrix derived from the historical data statistics of the target region.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a fifth possible implementation manner of the first aspect, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is obtained through analysis according to a calendar year data statistics table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

calculating economic standard index data by the following steps;

extracting a matrix containing data in the original index from a calendar year data statistical table of the target region;

the data in the original index is normalized according to the following formula,wherein X ═ X (X)_i1,X_i2,…X_ip) (i-1, 2 …, n) is a matrix containing raw index data for energy, economy or environment, and Z-Z (Z-Z)_i1,Z_i2,…Z_ip) (i ═ 1,2, … n) is a matrix for energy, economic or environmental data standardization;

and counting each data in the standardized standardization matrix to obtain energy, economic or environmental standard index data.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a sixth possible implementation manner of the first aspect, where the energy development speed V of the target area is obtained through analysis according to a calendar year data statistics table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

calculating a correlation matrix according to the standardized matrix;

calculating a characteristic root of the correlation matrix;

and selecting the characteristic root of which the numerical value is not negative in the characteristic roots of the correlation matrix as the numerical value of the principal component.

With reference to the first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a seventh possible implementation manner of the first aspect, where the method further includes:

establishing a three-dimensional coordinate system with an ellipsoid, and bringing a numerical value of the energy development speed, a numerical value of the economic development speed and a numerical value of the environmental development speed into the three-dimensional coordinate system, wherein X, Y and Z axes of the three-dimensional coordinate system respectively represent the numerical value of the energy development speed, the numerical value of the economic development speed and the numerical value of the environmental development speed;

and adjusting the calculation modes of alpha, beta and gamma according to the parameter content of the introduced three-dimensional coordinate system, wherein alpha represents the coordination degree between environment and energy-economy under the condition of coordination between energy and economy, beta represents the coordination degree between economy and energy-economy under the condition of coordination between energy and an environment system, and gamma represents the coordination degree between energy and economy-environment under the condition of coordination between the economy and the environment system.

In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides an energy, economic, and environmental co-scheduling computing apparatus based on an ellipsoid model, including:

an acquisition module for analyzing the energy development speed V of the target region according to the historical data statistical table of the target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c；

A calculation module for calculating the energy, economy and environment co-scheduling of the target region according to the following formula,

$E(V_a,V_b,V_c)=\frac{m(V_a,V_b)*\mathrm{\α}+m(V_a,V_c)*\mathrm{\β}+m(V_b,V_c)*\mathrm{\γ}}{m(V_a,V_b)+m(V_a,V_c)+m(V_b,V_c)};$

wherein, V_aenergy development speed for target region, V_bIs the economic development speed of the target region, V_cThe environmental development speed of the target region.

With reference to the second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a first possible implementation manner of the second aspect, where the obtaining module includes:

a calculating unit for calculating the energy development velocity V of the target region according to the following formula_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c：

$V_a=\frac{dA}{dt},V_b=\frac{dB}{dt},V_c=\frac{dC}{dt};$

Wherein t is the statistical age of the historical data statistical table, and A, B and C are curve fitting equations of the comprehensive development level values of the energy, the economy and the environment of the target region respectively.

Compared with the prior art that a cube model is used for analyzing and calculating energy, economy and environment coordination degree, the ellipsoid model analysis method for calculating the energy, economy and environment coordination degree based on the ellipsoid model provided by the embodiment of the invention has the advantage that the calculated coordination degree is not accurate enough, the ellipsoid analysis model is established in advance, and the ellipsoid analysis model is used for adjusting the environment and energy-economy coordination degree under the condition of energy and economy coordination, the economy and energy-economy coordination degree under the condition of energy and environment system coordination, and the energy and economy-environment coordination degree under the condition of economy and environment system coordination. And finally, the energy, economy and environment coordinated dispatching obtained by calculation is more accurate.

In order to make the aforementioned and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, preferred embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below.

Drawings

In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and for those skilled in the art, other related drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without inventive efforts.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating the coupling relationship among energy, economy and environment in the related art;

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating an energy-economic evolution relationship trajectory provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

fig. 3 shows a schematic diagram of an energy-economy-environment evolution development trajectory provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed Description

The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. The components of embodiments of the present invention generally described and illustrated in the figures herein may be arranged and designed in a wide variety of different configurations. Thus, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention, presented in the figures, is not intended to limit the scope of the invention, as claimed, but is merely representative of selected embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments of the present invention without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

In the related art, a cubic model is adopted when the co-scheduling analysis and calculation of energy, economy and environment are carried out. However, the applicant has found that the calculated coordination degree is not accurate enough when the model is used for analysis and calculation. Further, applicants provide a method for analyzing and computing a co-schedule using an ellipsoid model.

Next, the formula used for calculating the value of the integrated developmental level will be described first.

Step 1, generally, the basis for performing the co-scheduling calculation is a historical data statistical table of the target region, a matrix containing data in the original index can be directly extracted from the statistical table, and then the matrix needs to be standardized. Wherein, the matrix containing the data in the original index is shown as the following matrix:each element in the matrix is data in the original index.

Specifically, the normalization process may be performed according to the following formula:

wherein n is the number of samples (schemes), and p is an evaluation index X₁,X₂,…,X_pThe matrix X represents the data in the original index and the matrix Z represents the normalized data. The normalization matrix generated is as follows:

and 2, calculating a correlation matrix R according to the standardized matrix. The calculation method is as follows:

R＝(r_jk)_p×pj, k ═ 1,2, …, p formula 3; wherein r is_jkIs the correlation coefficient of the j index and the k index.

Further, in the present invention,and has r_jj＝1,r_jk＝r_kjFormula 4;

and 3, solving a characteristic root of the correlation matrix R. Wherein R has a characteristic equation of

R- λ I | ═ 0 equation 5;

λ_i(i ═ 1,2, … p) represents the non-negative characteristic root of R. And identifying the main component by the following formula:

λ_i(i＝1,2,…p)>1, formula 6;

and taking the number of the characteristic roots which are more than 1 as K, and taking the first K characteristic roots as the characteristic values of the main components.

Step 4, calculating a factor load matrix p_ijAnd solving a feature vector matrix:

wherein the corresponding feature vector T_j＝(T_1j,T_2j,…,T_ij,…T_pj) (j ═ 1,2 … K) represents the weight of the jth principal component in the top K principal components.

Then, calculating the comprehensive weight of the standard index data:

wherein T represents the integrated weight, K is the number of the principal components,

finally, after calculating the standard index data in step 1 and the comprehensive weight in step 8, the value of the comprehensive development level can be calculated as follows:

f ═ Z × T formula 9;

wherein, F is an n multiplied by 1 matrix, each row represents the numerical value of the comprehensive development level of energy, economy and environment under the corresponding year, and n is the number of years obtained through the historical year data of the target region; z is an n multiplied by p matrix and represents energy, economy or environment standard index data calculated through a historical year data statistical table of a target region, T is a p multiplied by 1 matrix, each row represents a weight value under an index corresponding to the energy, the economy or the environment, and p is the number of indexes obtained through the historical year data of the target region.

Corresponding to the above steps, examples of incorporating actual data are also provided below.

Step 1, standardizing the original data by using a formula (1) and a formula (2). (original data X is as in table 1), 12 indexes in the economy, namely n is 12 and p is 12, are selected in the example, and normalized matrix data (matrix Z) is calculated.

TABLE 1 original data (matrix X)

TABLE 2 standardized data (matrix Z)

And 2, calculating a sample correlation matrix R according to the formulas (3) and (4). This step may be performed by SPSS software.

TABLE 3 matrix of correlation coefficients R

And 3, solving the characteristic root of the correlation matrix R according to a formula (5) by using SPSS software. From the formula (6), 2 principal components, i.e., K ═ 2, are obtained.

TABLE 4 characteristic root λ of correlation matrix R_i

Step 4, obtaining a factor load matrix p by using SPSS software_ijAs shown in table 5, the eigenvector matrix is obtained by applying formula (7), i.e., the weights of the first principal component and the second principal component, and the composite weight is obtained by applying formula (8), as shown in table 6.

TABLE 5 initial factor load matrix p_ij

TABLE 6 economic System Integrated principal Components weights

And 5, calculating the score values of the first principal component and the second principal component by using a formula (9) according to the weights of the table 4, and calculating the comprehensive development level value by using a formula (10) as shown in table 7.

TABLE 7 economic System Integrated principal Components values

Similarly, various weights and development levels for energy and environment are available as shown in the following table.

TABLE 8 energy System Integrated principal Components weights

TABLE 9 environmental system weights

TABLE 10 energy System Integrated principal Components values

Year of year	First principal component F1	Second principal component F2	Composite score
				2003	-4.304	-0.943	-3.830
2004	-3.767	-0.067	-3.245
				2005	-2.691	0.941	-2.178
2006	-1.816	1.527	-1.344
				2007	-0.408	0.791	-0.239
2008	0.867	-2.003	0.461
				2009	1.168	-1.403	0.806
2010	1.451	-0.105	1.231
				2011	2.653	-0.607	2.193
2012	3.151	0.853	2.827
				2013	3.696	1.018	3.318
2014	-4.304	-0.943	-3.830

TABLE 11 environmental system Integrated principal Components values

After the numerical value of the comprehensive development level is calculated, the energy development speed V of the target region can be calculated in a differential mode_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c：

Wherein t is the statistical age of the historical data statistical table, and A, B and C are curve fitting equations of the comprehensive development level values of the energy, the economy and the environment of the target region respectively.

Finally, the calculated energy development speed V of the target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cAnd the coordinate dispatching of energy, economy and environment of the target region can be obtained by being brought into a formula obtained by using an ellipsoid model analysis.

The specific calculation formula is as follows:

wherein, V_aenergy development speed for target region, V_bIs the economic development speed of the target region, V_cThe environmental development speed of the target region.

The following describes the process of obtaining equation 11:

according to the theory of coupled systems, the coupling relationship of the 3E system is an objective characterization of the mutual influence and interdependence among energy, economic and environmental systems and internal elements, and the coupling relationship describes the development and evolution trend or situation of the 3E system in a certain time period. In the 3E system structure, the bearing capacity and capacity of the ecological system and the mining capacity and driving capacity of the energy system are somewhat limited, which determines that the rapid development of the economic system inevitably leads to the transition loss of energy and the damage of the ecological system. On the contrary, the energy system and the environmental system will restrict and slow down the development speed of the economic system through resource shortage, environmental pollution, government intervention and the like. The coupling relationship among energy, economy and environment is shown in figure 1.

On the basis of analyzing the relationship of the composition elements between the 3E systems, the general system is used for referenceDynamic development concept in the system, the nonlinear system evolution equation defining energy, economy and environment (equation 12, i.e.Wherein, inRepresenting the change speed, x, of the comprehensive development index of energy, economy and environment₁,x₂,…,x_n(i ═ 1,2, … n) represents an index for energy, economic, environmental subsystems), (equation 13, i.e., f (x)₁,x₂,…,x_n)＝f(0)+a₁x₁+a₂x₂+…+a_nx_n+θ(x₁,x₂,…,x_n) Is a derivation of (equation 12), and combining equations 12 and 13 yields an approximately linear system (equation 14, i.e.)。

General functions of energy, economic and environmental nonlinear systems are constructed based on the idea of describing nonlinear systems by differential equations (equations 15, 16, 17, i.e. Wherein, f (ener) represents an energy system, f (eco) represents an economic system, and f (envi) represents an environmental system. Wherein x is_i，y_j，z_kIs an index in energy, economic and environmental systems, respectively, a_i，b_j，c_kThe influence weights of the respective indices).

The 3E system is taken as a unified whole, the whole 3E system only has 3 elements f (Ener), f (eco), f (Envi), so that the evolution development equation form of the whole 3E system can be established as (formulas 18, 19 and 20, namely formulas 18 and 19, namely

Wherein, A, B, C respectively represent the comprehensive development level curves of energy, economy, environmental systems influenced by the internal and external systems of the system.

Energy, economy and environment evolution development systems are closely related to time lapse, so that the time t is taken as a variable, the evolution speed of each subsystem is defined, and a formula (10) is obtained.

V_aIs the evolution development speed of energy system, V_bIs the evolution development speed of the economic system, V_cIs the evolution development speed of the environmental system. Then V_3eCan be regarded as V_a、V_b、V_cA function of, i.e. V_3e＝g(V_a,V_b,V_c). It is assumed that the change of the economic system is periodic, and thus the energy system and the environmental system related to the economic system are also periodic. Due to V_3e＝g(V_a,V_b,V_c) The development relation can be analyzed in a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system from the perspective of the development speed of the system. Because the development of the economic system has a certain constraint effect on the energy system and the environmental system, the development of the economic system has larger variation amplitude than the energy system and the environmental system, and the variation amplitude of the energy system is larger than that of the environmental system, two of the three subsystems form elliptical variation tracks, and an ellipsoidal action relationship track is formed in a three-dimensional space.

The projections of the ellipsoids on all planes form an evolution development relation track of a binary system, namely an ellipse. As ellipsoid at V_a-V_bThe projection of the plane is an ellipse, namely an energy-economic evolution development relation track diagram, such as a diagram2, respectively.

FIG. 2 is a track diagram showing the evolution relationship of energy-economy, and assuming that the point A is a point where the development speed of the energy-economy is on the plane, the evolution development state and the degree of coupling of the coordinated development of the energy system and the economic system can be represented by an angle a, and it can be seen from the diagram that(i.e., equation 11), then(i.e., equation 11). Angle a can also be regarded as relating to V_aAnd V_bFunction of (d), denoted m (V)_a,V_b). Then V_aAnd V_cIs denoted by b, V_bAnd V_cThe included angle is represented by c, and the coupling degree functions of energy and environment and economy and environment can be respectively recorded as m (V)_a,V_c)、m(V_b,V_c)。

The three-dimensional coordinate system is shown in the following figures.

Fig. 3 reflects the track of development of energy-economy-environment evolution. Suppose that the point A is a point of the energy, economy and environment development speed on the three-dimensional coordinate, and the OA and the plane V can be seen from the figure_a-V_bThe angle of α indicates the environmental and energy-economic coordination in the case of energy and economic coordination_a-V_cAngle and plane V of_b-V_cThe angles are noted β and γ, β indicates the degree of coordination of economy and energy-economy in the case of energy-and-environmental system coordination, and γ indicates the degree of coordination of energy and economy-and-environment in the case of economic-and-environmental system coordinationThe same is true. (equation 11).

Therefore, it is concluded that: under the condition of energy and economic system coordination, the coordination degree of environment and energy-economy is as follows:under the condition of energy and environment system coordination, the coordination degree of economy and energy-economy is as follows:under the condition of coordination of an economy and environment system, the coordination degree of energy and economy-environment is as follows:(formula 11)

Due to the coordination degree of the whole 3E and the density inseparability of the three sub-elements, not only the coordination relationship between every two energy sources, economy and environment but also the interaction relationship between the three elements are considered. Therefore, the coordination degree of energy-economy, energy-environment and economy-environment is taken as a weight, and the weighted average of alpha, beta and gamma is taken as the co-scheduling of the 3E system. The coordination degree formula is constructed as

The rationality of the calculations using the methods provided herein is illustrated below in a specific example.

Step 1, obtaining basic parameters,

firstly, according to scientific, systematic, comprehensive, hierarchical and regional principles established by an index system, the existing research results of the index system for coordinated development are used for reference from two directions of depth and breadth, and the index system for coordinated development of energy, economy and environment in Beijing city is established. According to the acquirability of the index data, data from 2003-2014 of Beijing are selected for calculation, and the data are from national statistics yearbook, Beijing City statistics yearbook and national statistics bureau. Tables 12, 13, and 14 show the energy, economic, and environmental system indicators and data, respectively.

Energy system indexes and data of Beijing City in table 122003-2014

Economic system indexes and data of Beijing City in table 132003-2014

Table 142003-2014 Beijing City environmental system indexes and data

And 2, calculating, namely determining the weight of the index by adopting a principal component analysis method, and calculating the comprehensive development level of energy, economy and environment according to formulas 4, 5 and 6, wherein the result is shown in a table 15.

TABLE 15 comprehensive development level of energy, economy and environment

Carrying out polynomial fitting on three curves of comprehensive development levels of energy, economy and environment in 2003-2014 respectively to obtain an energy, economy and environment evolution fitting expression:

f(Ener)＝0.9056t+0.0019t²-0.0016t³4.8909 degree of fit R²＝0.99；

f(Eco)＝-0.2208t+0.1915t²-0.0103t³3.4066 degree of fit R²＝0.99；

f(Envi)＝-0.1235t-0.1477t²+0.0094t³3.7978 degree of fit R²＝0.98；

Using equation 10, calculate:

V_α＝0.9056+0.0038t-0.0048t²；

V_β＝-0.2208+0.3830t-0.0309t²；

V_γ＝-0.1235-0.2954t+0.0282t²；

wherein the value range of t is 1-12, which corresponds to 2003-2014.

Then, the value of the energy-economy-environment ternary coupling degree can be obtained by using the formula 11. The following energy-economy-environment coupling summary, the results of 2007 to 2014 only are tabulated below.

TABLE 16 energy-Economy-Environment coupling degree List

Corresponding to the method provided in the foregoing, the embodiment of the present application further provides an energy, economic and environmental co-scheduling computing apparatus based on an ellipsoid model, including:

an acquisition module for analyzing the energy development speed V of the target region according to the historical data statistical table of the target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c；

A calculation module for calculating the energy, economy and environment co-scheduling of the target region according to the following formula,

$E(V_a,V_b,V_c)=\frac{m(V_a,V_b)*\mathrm{\α}+m(V_a,V_c)*\mathrm{\β}+m(V_b,V_c)*\mathrm{\γ}}{m(V_a,V_b)+m(V_a,V_c)+m(V_b,V_c)};$

wherein, V_aenergy development speed for target region, V_bIs the economic development speed of the target region, V_cThe environmental development speed of the target region.

It is clear to those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the above-described systems, apparatuses and units may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again.

The above description is only for the specific embodiments of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive of the changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention, and all the changes or substitutions should be covered within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (10)

1. The energy, economy and environment coordination degree calculation method based on the ellipsoid model is characterized by comprising the following steps:

analyzing and obtaining the energy development speed V of the target region according to the historical data statistical table of the target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c；

The energy, economic and environmental co-scheduling of the target region is calculated according to the following formula,

$E(V_a,V_b,V_c)=\frac{m(V_a,V_b)*\mathrm{\α}+m(V_a,V_c)*\mathrm{\β}+m(V_b,V_c)*\mathrm{\γ}}{m(V_a,V_b)+m(V_a,V_c)+m(V_b,V_c)};$

wherein, V_aenergy development speed for target region, V_bIs the economic development speed of the target region, V_cThe environmental development speed of the target region.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is analyzed according to the calendar year data statistics of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cThe method comprises the following steps:

calculating the energy development speed V of the target region according to the following formula_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c：

$V_a=\frac{dA}{dt},V_b=\frac{dB}{dt},V_c=\frac{dC}{dt};$

Wherein t is the statistical age of the historical data statistical table, and A, B and C are curve fitting equations of the comprehensive development level values of the energy, the economy and the environment of the target region respectively.

3. The method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is analyzed according to the calendar year data statistical table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising: determining economic standard index data in an economic system of a target region and a weight value of the economic standard index data by adopting a principal component analysis method, determining energy standard index data in an energy system of the target region and a weight value of the energy standard index data, and determining environment standard index data in an environment system of the target region and a weight value of the environment standard index data;

calculating a numerical value of the economic comprehensive development level of the target region according to the determined numerical value of the economic standard index data and the weight value of the economic standard index data in a weighted calculation mode, and calculating a curve fitting equation of the economic comprehensive development level value in a fitting mode;

calculating a numerical value of the comprehensive energy development level of the target region according to the determined numerical value of the energy standard index data and the weight value of the energy standard index data in a weighted calculation mode, and calculating a curve fitting equation of the comprehensive energy development level value in a fitting mode;

and calculating a numerical value of the comprehensive development level of the environment of the target region according to the determined numerical value of the environmental standard index data and the weight value of the environmental standard index data in a weighted calculation mode, and calculating a curve fitting equation of the comprehensive development level value of the environment in a fitting mode.

4. Method according to claim 3, characterized in that said statistics according to the calendar year data of the target zoneTable, analyzing to obtain the energy development speed V of target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

respectively calculating the values of the comprehensive development levels of energy, economy and environment according to the following formulas,

F＝Z×T；

wherein, F is an n multiplied by 1 matrix, each row represents the numerical value of the comprehensive development level of energy, economy and environment under the corresponding year, and n is the number of years obtained through the historical year data of the target region; z is an n multiplied by p matrix and represents energy, economy or environment standard index data calculated through a historical year data statistical table of a target region, T is a p multiplied by 1 matrix, each row represents a weight value under an index corresponding to the energy, the economy or the environment, and p is the number of indexes obtained through the historical year data of the target region.

5. The method as claimed in claim 4, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is analyzed according to the calendar year data statistical table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

calculating the weighted value of the energy, economic or environmental standard index data according to the following formula,

$T=\underset{j=1}{\overset{K}{\Σ}}{T}_j\×\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_j}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\λ}}_i},(i=1,2,\mathrm{...}K);$

$T_{ij}=\frac{p_{ij}}{\sqrt{{\mathrm{\λ}}_j}},(i=1,2,\mathrm{...},p,j=1,2,\mathrm{...}K);$

wherein, T_j＝(T_1j,T_2j,…T_ij…T_pj) (j 1,2 … K) represents the weight of j-th principal component in the first K principal components, K is the number of principal components, T is the weight of energy, economic or environmental standard index data, λ_kIs a characteristic root of the principal component, p ═ p_1j,p_2j,…p_ij,…p_pj) (j ═ 1,2, … K) is a factor load matrix derived from the historical data statistics of the target region.

6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is analyzed according to the calendar year data statistical table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

calculating economic standard index data by the following steps;

extracting a matrix containing data in the original index from a calendar year data statistical table of the target region;

the data in the original index is normalized according to the following formula,wherein X ═ X (X)_i1,X_i2,…X_ip) (i-1, 2 …, n) is a matrix containing raw index data for energy, economy or environment, and Z-Z (Z-Z)_i1,Z_i2,…Z_ip) (i ═ 1,2, … n) is a matrix for energy, economic or environmental data standardization;

and counting each data in the standardized standardization matrix to obtain energy, economic or environmental standard index data.

7. The method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the energy development speed V of the target area is analyzed according to the calendar year data statistical table of the target area_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_cFurther comprising:

calculating a correlation matrix according to the standardized matrix;

calculating a feature root of the correlation matrix;

and selecting the characteristic root of which the numerical value is not negative in the characteristic roots of the correlation matrix as the numerical value of the principal component.

8. The method of claim 7, further comprising:

establishing a three-dimensional coordinate system with an ellipsoid, and bringing a numerical value of the energy development speed, a numerical value of the economic development speed and a numerical value of the environmental development speed into the three-dimensional coordinate system, wherein X, Y and Z axes of the three-dimensional coordinate system respectively represent the numerical value of the energy development speed, the numerical value of the economic development speed and the numerical value of the environmental development speed;

and adjusting the calculation modes of alpha, beta and gamma according to the brought parameter content of the three-dimensional coordinate system, wherein alpha represents the coordination degree between environment and energy-economy under the condition of coordination between energy and economy, beta represents the coordination degree between economy and energy-economy under the condition of coordination between energy and an environment system, and gamma represents the coordination degree between energy and economy-environment under the condition of coordination between the economy and the environment system.

9. Energy, economy and environment are harmonious dispatch accounting device based on ellipsoid model, its characterized in that includes:

an acquisition module for analyzing the energy development speed V of the target region according to the historical data statistical table of the target region_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c；

A calculation module for calculating the energy, economy and environment co-scheduling of the target region according to the following formula,

$E(V_a,V_b,V_c)=\frac{m(V_a,V_b)*\mathrm{\α}+m(V_a,V_c)*\mathrm{\β}+m(V_b,V_c)*\mathrm{\γ}}{m(V_a,V_b)+m(V_a,V_c)+m(V_b,V_c)};$

wherein, V_aenergy development speed for target region, V_bIs the economic development speed of the target region, V_cThe environmental development speed of the target region.

10. The apparatus of claim 9, wherein the means for obtaining comprises:

a calculating unit for calculating the energy development velocity V of the target region according to the following formula_aEconomic development speed V_bAnd environmental development velocity V_c：

$V_a=\frac{dA}{dt},V_b=\frac{dB}{dt},V_c=\frac{dC}{dt};$

Wherein t is the statistical age of the historical data statistical table, and A, B and C are curve fitting equations of the comprehensive development level values of the energy, the economy and the environment of the target region respectively.