CN105894178A - Afforestation operation method for optimal rotation of timber plantation - Google Patents

Afforestation operation method for optimal rotation of timber plantation Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105894178A
CN105894178A CN201610172397.1A CN201610172397A CN105894178A CN 105894178 A CN105894178 A CN 105894178A CN 201610172397 A CN201610172397 A CN 201610172397A CN 105894178 A CN105894178 A CN 105894178A
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China
Prior art keywords
year
timber
value
plantation
felling
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CN201610172397.1A
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Inventor
冯仲科
马力
邱梓轩
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Beijing Forestry University
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Beijing Forestry University
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Priority to CN201610172397.1A priority Critical patent/CN105894178A/en
Publication of CN105894178A publication Critical patent/CN105894178A/en
Pending legal-status Critical Current

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G06Q10/06312—Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations

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  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses an afforestation operation method for an optimal rotation of timber plantation. According to an operation rule and economic value characteristics of timber plantation, generally of a single tree, optimal rotation prediction is carried out. A plantation value and a management and protection cost value that are invested at the first year at the initial stage of operation are supposed to be certain specific values, a management and protection cost value from the second year till the year before rotation is supposed to another specific value, and a management and protection cost value and a cutting value of the year of rotation total a third specific value; on the condition that all timber sales amounts are known, a maximum annual profit value can be calculated by considering the influence of a fixed money benchmark interest rate during the operation process fully, so that an optimal rotation being the year with the highest maximum annual profit value can be obtained; and then calculation is carried out to obtain an available forest stand volume during rotation. The method that can be implemented easily and conveniently is suitable for the modern forest culture and management situation.

Description

A kind of timber plantation is afforested business method the optimal period of felling in turn
One, technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of Timber stands afforest the period of felling in turn business method, particularly a kind of timber plantation optimal period of felling in turn Afforestation business method.
Two, technical background
Up to the present, the determination in timber plantation optimal period of felling in turn is mainly with Real Option Approach: manage based on option on physicals Opinion, on the basis of assuming that timber price meets geometric Brownian motion, establishes the Real Option Model determining the optimal rotational felling peroid. But in actual mechanical process, there is a lot of error in Real Option Approach:
1. the Distribution Area of different tree species is not quite similar, and is easily generated error.
2. the demand of different tree species is not quite similar, and is easily generated error.
3. timber price not necessarily Geometry Brownian movement, may obey other stochastic processs.
Therefore, during the period of felling in turn, use Real Option Approach inevitably to bring a lot of trouble and error.
Three, summary of the invention
A lot of in order to overcome existing Real Option Approach inevitably to bring during determining Timber stands period of felling in turn Trouble and error, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of timber plantation and afforest the optimal period of felling in turn business method.
The object of the present invention is achieved like this:
1. timber plantation is afforested a business method the optimal period of felling in turn, it is characterized in that: timber plantation is typically with single Seeds plant this management style, simultaneously take account of its economic worth, needed for obtaining operational period different year expense be followed successively by through Plantation and expense of managing and protecting that battalion's First Year puts into are expressed as C0, manage Second Year to put into before the period of felling in turn to manage and protect expense basically identical, It is represented as C1, remove during the period of felling in turn (1 year) and manage and protect expense C1Also need to put into and fell expense C2, it is assumed that all timber sell can obtain golden Volume is F, further contemplates this factor of time value of money in business process simultaneously, is supposing that currency benchmark interest rate is r On the premise of, according to mathematical model solution be calculated further year's purchase (A) maximum time be which in year, be now optimal wheel Cut down the phase, Stand Volume M now can be calculated simultaneously.
2. timber plantation business method of afforesting the optimal period of felling in turn is as follows: be first fully understood by timber plantation kind On the basis of planting feature (the most single seeds) and its economic worth, standing forest year's purchase value is set up corresponding mathematical modulo Type, its formula isSecondly according to publicity 1. to n derivation, calculate when why n is worth and can obtain Maximum year's purchase, i.e. obtains the optimal period of felling in turn, and its result is for working asTime, maximum year's purchase A ForFinally, according to existing tree breast-height diameter modelCrown diameter model Density formulaThe single tree volume of timber The associated expression of four factors, can be in the hope of after substituting into Expression formula during Stand Volume M maximum isThe most each index expression formula is followed successively bym2=2b0b1, m3=a0a2, m4=b0b2。
This invention has the advantage that
1. it is applicable to any seeds, is not likely to produce error；
2., during calculating, it is contemplated that time value of money in business process, error is reduced.
Four, detailed description of the invention:
This timber plantation afforest the optimal period of felling in turn business method unlike the prior art, made significant improvement, specifically:
1) it is characterized in that: generally seeds in timber plantation, according to this operation rule and its economic worth, Carry out optimal calculating in the period of felling in turn, it is known that plantation and the expense of managing and protecting of managing initial stage First Year input are C0, backward straight from Second Year To (n-1)th year, the expense of managing and protecting that puts into the most successively is almost identical was all to be represented by C1, represented the period of felling in turn with 1 year, now Need to put into and manage and protect expense C1And felling takes C2, it is assumed that all the timber sales amount of money is F, considers the time of currency in business process simultaneously It is worth this factor, it is assumed that currency benchmark interest rate is r, then can resolve according to mathematical model and obtain year's purchase (A) maximum Time, n in the period of felling in turn now is the optimal period of felling in turn and seeks the Stand Volume M that can obtain now.
2) its using method: initially set up mathematical modelYear's purchase is represented with it, its Secondary, by model 1. to n derivation, draw and work asTime, year's purchase A is the result of maximum, and calculates Draw its expression formulaFinally, according to tree diameter of a cross-section of a tree trunk 1.3 meters above the ground model, crown diameter model, density formula, single tree Volume equation calculates Stand VolumeWhereinm2=2b0b1, m3= a0a2, m4=b0b2
The model that is applied to during calculating, formula:
1) tree breast-height diameter model:
2) crown diameter model:
3) density formula:
4) the single tree volume of timber:

Claims (2)

1. timber plantation is afforested a business method the optimal period of felling in turn, it is characterized in that: according to the operation rule of timber plantation And economic worth, generally seeds in Timber stands, plantation and the expense of managing and protecting of managing initial stage First Year input are C0, past The rear annual expense of managing and protecting put into is almost identical for C1, until (n-1)th year, put into respectively when n in the period of felling in turn and manage and protect expense C1And fell Take C2, it is assumed that all the rear amount of money sold by timber is F, it is considered to time value of money in business process, and supposes currency benchmark profit Rate is r, then according to mathematical model resolve year's purchase (A) maximum time, n in the period of felling in turn now is the optimal period of felling in turn and asks Stand Volume M now can be obtained.
2., according to claim 1, a kind of timber plantation is afforested business method the optimal period of felling in turn, it is characterized in that: first by year Income mathematical modelTo n derivation, and draw work asTime, year Degree income A is maximum, forSecondly, according to tree breast-height diameter modelCrown diameter model Density formulaThe single tree volume of timberCan be in the hope of Stand VolumeWhereinm2=2b0b1, m3=a0a2, m4=b0b2。
CN201610172397.1A 2016-03-24 2016-03-24 Afforestation operation method for optimal rotation of timber plantation Pending CN105894178A (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201610172397.1A CN105894178A (en) 2016-03-24 2016-03-24 Afforestation operation method for optimal rotation of timber plantation

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201610172397.1A CN105894178A (en) 2016-03-24 2016-03-24 Afforestation operation method for optimal rotation of timber plantation

Publications (1)

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CN105894178A true CN105894178A (en) 2016-08-24

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108344400A (en) * 2017-01-22 2018-07-31 北京林业大学 A kind of horizontal normal case photography imagery measures the technical method of Forest Disaster state distribution
CN108596657A (en) * 2018-04-11 2018-09-28 北京木业邦科技有限公司 Trees Value Prediction Methods, device, electronic equipment and storage medium

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108344400A (en) * 2017-01-22 2018-07-31 北京林业大学 A kind of horizontal normal case photography imagery measures the technical method of Forest Disaster state distribution
CN108596657A (en) * 2018-04-11 2018-09-28 北京木业邦科技有限公司 Trees Value Prediction Methods, device, electronic equipment and storage medium

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