CN105809283A - Comprehensive quantitative evaluation method for calculating influence degree of external economic elements on provincial level power utilization market - Google Patents
Comprehensive quantitative evaluation method for calculating influence degree of external economic elements on provincial level power utilization market Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for calculating an influence degree of external economic elements on a provincial level power utilization market. The method includes steps of (1) collecting and sorting different types of economic data in an external environment and removing influence on data caused by season change; (2) performing preliminary classification on different types of economic indexes in the external environment and performing main component analysis according to the classification; (3) establishing a production function model of the power utilization amount and different input index groups. According to the invention, based on an improved Cobb-Douglas production function, the influence degree on power utilization amount is quantized from three types of input main factors including flow capital input, fixed capital input and industrial production and marketing input and the variation tendency of the influence degrees of the three types of input main factors in the past time period can be determined flexibly, so that the inner link between economic society and the power utilization market is reflected.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electricity consumption silhouette and ring evaluation field, a kind of comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method that provincial electrity market is affected by meter and external environmental factor.
Technical background
Electric power is the antecedent basis of the national economic development, the development speed of all trades and professions electricity consumption is directly related with the level of development of national economy, ensure that electrical power stabilization sufficient supplies has highly important meaning orthobiosis for economic development and the people, excavate the law of development of electricity consumption under external environment condition, will assist in and instruct Operation of Electric Systems to plan, comply with cyclic swing, select corresponding strategy to provide solid foundation the relevant functional departments such as Utilities Electric Co..
In the face of dynamically, uncertain, the impact of complicated external environment condition, it is difficult to hold the complicated Changing Pattern of electricity needs by simple and single method, so that in view of many-sided electricity needs influence factor, excavate the fluctuation tendency of industry itself, company should hold the variation tendency of external environment condition, the internal relation of need for electricity under the different factor of research, correctly to hold development trend and the rule of electrity market, it is necessary for synthetically analyzing each side factor under external environment condition, because the fluctuation of any one single economic variable all view can not go out past of overall electrity market, current and following overall situation.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is that existing appraisal procedure is simple and single, is difficult to hold the complicated Changing Pattern of electricity needs.
For solving technique scheme, the technical solution used in the present invention is: a kind of meter and the external economy factor comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method to provincial electrity market influence degree, the method comprises the following steps: 1) is collected arranging for economic datas all kinds of under external environment condition, obtains primitive economy index；2) primitive economy index is carried out preliminary classification, filter out the input-occupancy-output analysis under variety classes, it is thus achieved that more than one input-occupancy-output analysis group；3) primitive economy index is carried out seasonal adjustment, reject impact data brought because of seasonal move, be adjusted economic indicator；4) it is standardized index of adjusting economy processing；5) data that establishing criteriaization obtains after processing, carry out principal component analysis to different input-occupancy-output analysis groups；6) production function parameters between power consumption and different input-occupancy-output analysis groups is set up, Cobb-Douglas Production Function is improved by this model, thus determine analysis model based on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function improved, quantify all kinds of input-occupancy-output analysis group influence degree to provincial power consumption;7) the influence degree variation tendency rule of input-occupancy-output analysis is analyzed from monthly data over the years.
Further, under described step 1) external environment, all kinds of economic datas include the above industrial added value of scale, profits tax total value, product sales revenue, public finance income, all kinds of price index, all kinds of investment target and major product yield.
Further, the method for the seasonal adjustment in described step 3) uses X12 method.
Further, described step 2) in input-occupancy-output analysis group include into active capital put into, fixed capital put into and industry production and marketing；The judge index that active capital puts into includes the index of the power consumption accounting product yield more than 2% under industry；The judge index that fixed capital puts into includes the investment of real estate investment mining industry, electric power combustion-gas jet test supply investment, investment in manufacturing industry, investment in fixed assets；The judge index that industry production and marketing puts into includes the above industrial added value of scale, industrial products purchasing price index, industrial products producer price index, product sales revenue, public finance income, profits tax total value.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: (1) is comprehensive.The external environmental factor of electrity market is considered fully, seeks electricity consumption influence factor between different aspect, different index.(2) simplification.Also can bring analysis loaded down with trivial details to numerous this of external environmental factor index for selection of electrity market, the present invention realizes Data Dimensionality Reduction by principal component analytical method, is contained the most information of numerous index by a small amount of main gene, makes analysis process be simplified.(3) easy tolerance property.The present invention finally realizes quantifying three classes by the Cobb-Douglas Production Function improved and puts into the main gene influence degree to power consumption, and analyze each input main gene development trend in the past by interval division, thus to assisting functional department to make reasonable efficient management strategy, auxiliary power grid company operation decision-making, it is ensured that national economy life running is normal.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the inventive method.
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described with detailed description of the invention below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, so that advantages and features of the invention can more directly be understood by those skilled in the art, and then the protection domain of invention is made apparent clear and definite defining.
Meter and the external economy factor comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method to provincial electrity market influence degree, based on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function improved, put into from active capital, fixed capital puts into and industry production and marketing puts into three classes input main genes and quantifies the influence degree to power consumption, and can determine that three classes put into the variation tendency of the influence degree of main gene within the time period in past, reflect the internal relation of economic society and electrity market with this neatly.This appraisal procedure comprises the following steps:
(1) it is collected arranging for economic datas all kinds of under external environment condition, and the method that these data are taked seasonal adjustment, reject the impact that data are brought by the seasonal move such as weather conditions, production cycle, preferably disclose feature or the basic trend of all kinds of monthly data；
Under external environment condition, all kinds of economic datas mainly include the achievement datas such as the above industrial added value of scale, profits tax total value, product sales revenue, public finance income, all kinds of price index, all kinds of investment target and major product yield.The method employing that these data carry out seasonal adjustment is X12 method, the random factor such as seasonal factor, production is rejected from initial data, preferably disclose feature or the basic trend of all kinds of monthly data, be standardized again based on the data after seasonal adjustment processing.
(2) all kinds of economic indicators under external environment condition are carried out preliminary classification, filter out the input-occupancy-output analysis under variety classes, more different input-occupancy-output analysis groups is carried out principal component analysis, thus reduce index dimension；
All kinds of economic indicators under external environment condition are carried out preliminary classification, filter out the input-occupancy-output analysis under variety classes, refer to the achievement datas such as industrial added value above to scale, profits tax total value, product sales revenue, public finance income, all kinds of price index, all kinds of investment target and major product yield, it is categorized into three kinds of input-occupancy-output analysis groups, is that active capital puts into, fixed capital puts into and industry production and marketing puts into respectively.Active capital puts into and mainly includes following index: the pig iron, steel, chemical fertilizer, cement, chemical fibre Isoquant index；Fixed capital puts into and mainly includes following index: the investment of real estate investment mining industry, electric power combustion-gas jet test supply investment, investment in manufacturing industry, investment in fixed assets；Industry production and marketing puts into and mainly includes following index: the above industrial added value of scale, industrial products purchasing price index, industrial products producer price index, product sales revenue, public finance income, profits tax total value.
Put into for active capital, fixed capital puts into and industry production and marketing puts into numerous group indexs in three class input-occupancy-output analysis groups, the method using principal component analysis is realized Data Dimensionality Reduction, show that representing active capital input, fixed capital input and industry production and marketing puts into the main gene of three class input-occupancy-output analysis, enables to represent most information of group index below input-occupancy-output analysis group respectively.
(3) production function parameters between power consumption and different input-occupancy-output analysis groups is set up, Cobb-Douglas Production Function is improved by this model, thus determine analysis model based on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function improved, quantify all kinds of input-occupancy-output analysis group influence degree to provincial power consumption.
Set up the impact analysis model between power consumption and different input-occupancy-output analysis groups by building the Cobb-Douglas Production Function based on improving, quantify all kinds of input main gene influence degree to provincial power consumption.The production function that original Cobb-Douglas production function is created when being to inquire into the relation put into output, introduce this factor of technical resource, be used for a kind of economic mathematical model of the approach predicting that the industrial system of countries and regions or the production of big business and analysis develop production.In the present invention using power consumption as the target variable in production function, and active capital input, fixed capital input and industry production and marketing are put in three class input-occupancy-output analysis introducing production functions as explanatory variable, target determines that active capital puts into, fixed capital puts into and industry production and marketing puts into three classes and puts into the main gene influence degree to power consumption, and analyzes the influence degree variation tendency rule of three class input-occupancy-output analysis from monthly data over the years.
In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, pass through the present invention, a three class input-occupancy-output analysis groups influence degree analysis to power consumption in can be implemented in over 5 years, and it is carried out after classification seeks, draw three class input-occupancy-output analysis groups influence degree in different time sections, thus form the influence degree variation tendency under different time dimension, economy and the incidence relation of electricity under concerned countries policy can be reflected.
It should be pointed out that, for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, it is also possible to make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.Each ingredient the clearest and the most definite in the present embodiment all can use prior art to be realized.
Claims (4)
1. a meter and the external economy factor comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method to provincial electrity market influence degree, it is characterised in that the method comprises the following steps:
1) it is collected arranging for economic datas all kinds of under external environment condition, obtains primitive economy index；
2) primitive economy index is carried out preliminary classification, filter out the input-occupancy-output analysis under variety classes, it is thus achieved that more than one input-occupancy-output analysis group；
3) primitive economy index is carried out seasonal adjustment, reject impact data brought because of seasonal move, be adjusted economic indicator；
4) it is standardized index of adjusting economy processing；
5) data that establishing criteriaization obtains after processing, carry out principal component analysis to different input-occupancy-output analysis groups；
6) production function parameters between power consumption and different input-occupancy-output analysis groups is set up, Cobb-Douglas Production Function is improved by this model, thus determine analysis model based on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function improved, quantify all kinds of input-occupancy-output analysis group influence degree to provincial power consumption;
7) the influence degree variation tendency rule of input-occupancy-output analysis is analyzed from monthly data over the years.
The comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method that provincial electrity market is affected by a kind of meter the most according to claim 1 and external environmental factor, it is characterised in that: under described step 1) external environment, all kinds of economic datas include the above industrial added value of scale, profits tax total value, product sales revenue, public finance income, all kinds of price index, all kinds of investment target and major product yield.
The comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method that provincial electrity market is affected by a kind of meter the most according to claim 1 and external environmental factor, it is characterised in that: the method for the seasonal adjustment in described step 3) uses X12 method.
A kind of meter the most according to claim 1 and external environmental factor comprehensive Quantified Evaluation method that provincial electrity market is affected, it is characterised in that: described step 2) in input-occupancy-output analysis group include into that active capital puts into, fixed capital puts into and industry production and marketing；The judge index that active capital puts into includes the index of the power consumption accounting product yield more than 2% under industry；The judge index that fixed capital puts into includes the investment of real estate investment mining industry, electric power combustion-gas jet test supply investment, investment in manufacturing industry, investment in fixed assets；The judge index that industry production and marketing puts into includes the above industrial added value of scale, industrial products purchasing price index, industrial products producer price index, product sales revenue, public finance income, profits tax total value.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108596436A (en) * | 2018-03-28 | 2018-09-28 | 郑州铁路职业技术学院 | Computer based economic indicator monitors analysis method in real time |
| CN112580840A (en) * | 2019-09-27 | 2021-03-30 | 北京国双科技有限公司 | Data analysis method and device |
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- 2016-03-07 CN CN201610126564.9A patent/CN105809283A/en active Pending
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108596436A (en) * | 2018-03-28 | 2018-09-28 | 郑州铁路职业技术学院 | Computer based economic indicator monitors analysis method in real time |
| CN112580840A (en) * | 2019-09-27 | 2021-03-30 | 北京国双科技有限公司 | Data analysis method and device |
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