CN105787602A - Power transmission line wildfire dynamic forecasting and early warning method based on sequential variation - Google Patents
Power transmission line wildfire dynamic forecasting and early warning method based on sequential variation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of a power system and especially relates to a power transmission line wildfire dynamic forecasting and early warning method based on sequential variation. The method is characterized by, to begin with, constructing a wildfire spreading ellipse model at the initial time t0 according to wildfire point initial position F0, wind direction and wind speed and slope information, and calculating wildfire maximum spreading speed Vmax at the current time; calculating the minimum distance D0 between the F0 and a power transmission line L at the time t0 and spreading speed VL0 in the direction, and determining power transmission line wildfire early warning grade at the time t0; determining speed of the fire point F1 in the power transmission line spreading direction at the next time t1; calculating a wildfire spreading model obtained from the time t1 and after a time period delta t; repeating the steps above until obtaining a series of wildfire point positions about time series; and when receiving fire point F0 spreading and ambient environment change information at any time, updating a new wildfire spreading path diagram in time starting from the time. The method can correct wildfire spreading forecasted paths in time, and has the advantages of small calculation amount and clear target and preventing simulation in irrelevant direction.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to technical field of power systems, particularly relate to a kind of transmission line forest fire dynamic prediction method for early warning based on timing variations.
Background technology
In recent years, along with developing rapidly of China's electrical network, scale constantly expands, and more and more transmission lines of electricity cross over the multiple forest zone of mountain fire, mountain area.In addition global warming in recent years, increasingly being susceptible to continuous high temperature sunny weather and the impact of mankind's industrial and agricultural production activity and tourist activity, mountain fire outburst number of times presents quick growth trend, the electric power accident caused because of mountain fire also increases to some extent, the safe and stable operation of serious threat electrical network.Therefore, promptly and accurately understand the position relationship of mountain fire and transmission line of electricity and the situation change that mountain fire spreads to transmission line of electricity direction, electrical network mountain fire calamity emergency decision-making is had very important significance.
At present, Chinese scholar has been launched research and has been obtained certain achievement in electrical network mountain fire location, early warning and alarm etc., and spreading at mountain fire also has high achievement in simulation, but have not been reported in the active development Tendency Prediction between mountain fire and transmission line of electricity.Understand the development path situation that mountain fire spreads to transmission line of electricity in time, it is possible to provide more valuable reference for electrical network mountain fire diaster prevention and control and Emergency decision.
Summary of the invention
In order to solve the problems referred to above, the present invention proposes a kind of transmission line forest fire dynamic prediction method for early warning based on timing variations, it is characterised in that the method comprises the following steps:
Step 1: initial time is designated as t0, mountain fire fire point initial position is designated as F0, by obtaining wind direction and wind velocity and grade information, build mountain fire and spread model of ellipse, calculate the maximum rate of propagation V of mountain fire of current timemax；
Step 2: calculate t0Moment fire point F0The minimum distance D of distance transmission line of electricity L0With the rate of propagation V in the directionL0, it is determined that t0The transmission of electricity mountain fire advanced warning grade in moment；Wherein D0The calculating of Minkowski measure formulas can be passed through obtain；
Step 3: with Δ t for time step, according to t0The mountain fire that the fiery dot position information in moment and the parameter such as landform, environment are determined in Δ t time interval spreads model of ellipse, draws model of ellipse border；
Step 4: by being the parallel lines L of transmission line of electricity L1', make L1' spread model of ellipse border with mountain fire and intersect at a point F1, then F1For t1=t0The fiery point that+Δ t distance transmission line of electricity L is closest, distance is D1, calculate from F simultaneously0To F1The mountain fire rate of propagation V in line directionF1, this speed is fire point F1The speed in direction is spread to transmission line of electricity；
Step 5: with F1For burning things which may cause a fire disaster point, with Δ t for time step, spread model of ellipse according to mountain fire and calculate from t1Moment plays the mountain fire Spread Model after the Δ t time, and at F1Point arrives the speed V of the range direction of transmission line of electricity1, it is determined that t1The transmission of electricity mountain fire advanced warning grade in moment；
Step 6: constantly repeat step 4～5, until tnIt is tangent with transmission line of electricity or till intersecting that the mountain fire in moment spreads model of ellipse, obtains, about seasonal effect in time series a series of mountain fire point position, being connected by these location points, obtaining mountain fire F0From t0Moment starts the path constantly spread to transmission line of electricity, obtains about a series of mountain fire early warning of seasonal effect in time series simultaneously.
Step 7: when any instant receives fire point F0Spread and the change information of surrounding, supplement in time and repeat the above steps 1～6, obtain from this moment new mountain fire and spread pathway figure.
The maximum rate of propagation of the mountain fire of current time in described step 1Wherein, V0Represent the initial rate of propagation of mountain fire, KsRepresent gradient correction factor, KwRepresenting wind speed correction factor, α represents the angle of slope aspect and wind direction.
Rate of propagation in the direction in described step 2Wherein, VL0Represent t0Moment fire point F0Rate of propagation to transmission line of electricity L minimum distance direction；β represents the fire point angle to transmission line of electricity range direction with the maximum rate of propagation direction of mountain fire.
Beneficial effect
The inventive method can simulate the rate of propagation calculating any time fire point distance with transmission line of electricity and the direction, it is possible to obtains the mountain fire advanced warning grade of any time；Simulate mountain fire based on timing variations and spread path, policymaker can be allowed to hold mountain fire more exactly and spread situation, make specific aim decision-making；The inventive method can pass through the mountain fire and the environment up-to-date information that obtain, revises mountain fire in time and spreads predicted path, more meets practical application scene；This method spreads analogy method relative to other mountain fires, have that amount of calculation is little, calculate the features such as speed is fast, with clearly defined objective, it is to avoid the simulation in irrelevant direction.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the prediction and warning method of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is that mountain fire spreads model of ellipse schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is distance and the speed schematic diagram that fire point arrives transmission line of electricity；
Fig. 4 is distance and the velocity variations simulation schematic diagram that fire point arrives transmission line of electricity；
Fig. 5 is the fire point path schematic diagram to transmission line of electricity.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is elaborated.A kind of transmission line forest fire dynamic prediction method for early warning based on timing variations that the present invention proposes, Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the prediction and warning method of the present invention, concrete following steps:
1. the application premise of this method and preparation
The application of this method is firstly the need of based on GIS-Geographic Information System, it is possible to obtain the longitude and latitude positional information of fire point and transmission line of electricity, it is possible to obtain the terrain informations such as the gradient, it is possible to obtain the weather environment information such as wind direction and wind speed.
Secondly, for better applying the inventive method, it is necessary to set up mountain fire Alert Standard according to practical situation, in order to policymaker will appreciate that the mountain fire early warning in each moment.
It is as follows that this example sets up mountain fire advanced warning grade standard:
Wherein, pL=1,2,3 represent respectively fire point with the one-level of transmission line of electricity distance level scale, two grades, three grades；pF=1,2,3 represent respectively the one-level of rate of propagation grade, two grades, three grades.Prediction and warning system is built, it is possible to obtaining the mountain fire rate of propagation index quantified, the current mountain fire of understanding directly perceived spreads state by the combination of the distance early warning of fire point and rate of propagation early warning, thus early warning more directly perceived.
Set up the mountain fire Spread Model of initial time, initial time is designated as t0, mountain fire fire point initial position is designated as F0, by obtaining wind direction and wind velocity and grade information, build mountain fire and spread model of ellipse, calculate the maximum rate of propagation V of mountain fire of current timemax, see Fig. 2.
Described maximum rate of propagation VmaxComputing formula is:
In formula:
V0The initial rate of propagation of mountain fire；
KsGradient correction factor；
KwWind speed correction factor；
The angle of α slope aspect and wind direction.
2. calculate the mountain fire of initial time and the speed of transmission line of electricity distance and the direction, it is determined that advanced warning grade
Calculate t0Moment fire point F0The distance D of distance transmission line of electricity L0With the rate of propagation V in the directionL0, it may be determined that t0The transmission of electricity mountain fire advanced warning grade in moment, is shown in Fig. 3.Wherein D0The calculating of Minkowski measure formulas can be passed through obtain, rate of propagation VL0Computing formula is:
In formula:
VL0——t0Moment fire point F0Rate of propagation to transmission line of electricity L minimum distance direction；
The angle of transmission line of electricity range direction and the maximum rate of propagation direction of mountain fire put by β fire；
Assuming that current fire point distance transmission line of electricity 2.8km, this range direction rate of propagation 6m/s, then according to the known t of the advanced warning grade criteria for classifying0Mountain fire is in three grades of second-class early warning, and from circuit farther out, fire point middling speed spreads fire point.
3. calculate and spread model of ellipse with the Δ t mountain fire being step-length
Taking Δ t is 30min, then with 30 minutes for time step, according to t0The mountain fire that the fiery dot position information in moment and the parameter such as landform, environment can determine in 30 minutes intervals spreads model of ellipse border.
4. determine subsequent time fire point position and spread direction
By being the parallel lines L of transmission line of electricity L1', make L1' spread model of ellipse border with mountain fire and intersect at a point F1, then F1For t1The fiery point that moment distance transmission line of electricity L is closest, distance is D1, can calculate from F simultaneously0To F1The mountain fire rate of propagation V in line directionF1, this speed is fire point F1Spread the speed in direction to transmission line of electricity, see Fig. 4.
5. calculate with t1Moment plays the mountain fire that Δ t is step-length and spreads model of ellipse
With F1For burning things which may cause a fire disaster point, with 30 minutes for time step, can calculate from t according to mountain fire Spread Model1Moment plays the mountain fire Spread Model after 30 minutes, and at F1Point arrives the speed V of the range direction of transmission line of electricity1, it is determined that t1The transmission of electricity mountain fire advanced warning grade in moment.
6. obtain from t0The mountain fire that moment rises spreads predicted path
Continuous repeat the above steps 4～5, until tnIt is tangent with transmission line of electricity or till intersecting that the mountain fire in moment spreads model of ellipse, obtains, about seasonal effect in time series a series of mountain fire fire point position, being connected by these location points, obtaining mountain fire F0From t0Moment starts to the path S that transmission line of electricity constantly spreads0, obtain about a series of mountain fire early warning of seasonal effect in time series simultaneously.
7. obtain and more repaint mountain fire after fresh information and spread predicted path
When a certain reception spreads to this fire point and the change information of surrounding, supplement in time and repeat the above steps 1～6, obtain from this moment new mountain fire and spread pathway figure.
Assuming that work as t0The t of 30 minutes afterwards1Monitor new fire point position, and obtain wind speed and direction information at that time, then adjust parameter and again simulate, it is possible to obtain from t1The new mountain fire that moment rises spreads path S1, as shown in Figure 5.
Claims (3)
1. the transmission line forest fire dynamic prediction method for early warning based on timing variations, it is characterised in that the method comprises the following steps:
Step 1: initial time is designated as t0, mountain fire fire point initial position is designated as F0, by obtaining wind direction and wind velocity and grade information, build mountain fire and spread model of ellipse, calculate the maximum rate of propagation V of mountain fire of current timemax；
Step 2: calculate t0Moment fire point F0The minimum distance D of distance transmission line of electricity L0With the rate of propagation V in the directionL0, it is determined that t0The transmission of electricity mountain fire advanced warning grade in moment；Wherein D0The calculating of Minkowski measure formulas can be passed through obtain；
Step 3: with Δ t for time step, according to t0The mountain fire that the fiery dot position information in moment and the parameter such as landform, environment are determined in Δ t time interval spreads model of ellipse, draws model of ellipse border；
Step 4: by being the parallel lines L of transmission line of electricity L1', make L1' spread model of ellipse border with mountain fire and intersect at a point F1, then F1For t1=t0The fiery point that+Δ t distance transmission line of electricity L is closest, distance is D1, calculate from F simultaneously0To F1The mountain fire rate of propagation V in line directionF1, this speed is fire point F1The speed in direction is spread to transmission line of electricity；
Step 5: with F1For burning things which may cause a fire disaster point, with Δ t for time step, spread model of ellipse according to mountain fire and calculate from t1Moment plays the mountain fire Spread Model after the Δ t time, and at F1Point arrives the speed V of the range direction of transmission line of electricity1, it is determined that t1The transmission of electricity mountain fire advanced warning grade in moment；
Step 6: constantly repeat step 4～5, until tnIt is tangent with transmission line of electricity or till intersecting that the mountain fire in moment spreads model of ellipse, obtains, about seasonal effect in time series a series of mountain fire point position, being connected by these location points, obtaining mountain fire F0From t0Moment starts the path constantly spread to transmission line of electricity, obtains about a series of mountain fire early warning of seasonal effect in time series simultaneously；
Step 7: when any instant receives fire point F0Spread and the change information of surrounding, supplement in time and repeat the above steps 1～6, obtain from this moment new mountain fire and spread pathway figure.
2. a kind of transmission line forest fire dynamic prediction method for early warning based on timing variations according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the maximum rate of propagation of the mountain fire of current time in described step 1Wherein, V0Represent the initial rate of propagation of mountain fire, KsRepresent gradient correction factor, KwRepresenting wind speed correction factor, α represents the angle of slope aspect and wind direction.
3. a kind of transmission line forest fire dynamic prediction method for early warning based on timing variations according to claim 2, it is characterised in that the rate of propagation in the direction in described step 2Wherein, VL0Represent t0Moment fire point F0Rate of propagation to transmission line of electricity L minimum distance direction；β represents the fire point angle to transmission line of electricity range direction with the maximum rate of propagation direction of mountain fire.
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| CN108831116A (en) * | 2018-06-22 | 2018-11-16 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Transmission line forest fire spreads the bearing calibration of behavior multistage, system and storage medium |
| CN109472421A (en) * | 2018-11-22 | 2019-03-15 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | A kind of power grid mountain fire sprawling method for early warning and device |
| CN109670260A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-04-23 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | A kind of mountain fire sprawling Area Prediction method, apparatus and equipment |
| CN109816911A (en) * | 2017-12-31 | 2019-05-28 | 湖南汇博电子科技股份有限公司 | The control method of fire emergency lamp, system, readable storage medium storing program for executing |
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| CN113221057A (en) * | 2021-05-14 | 2021-08-06 | 山东省生态环境监测中心 | Straw burning fire point monitoring method based on multi-temporal satellite images |
| CN117236671A (en) * | 2023-11-15 | 2023-12-15 | 深圳金三立视频科技股份有限公司 | Dynamic real-time monitoring method and system for mountain fire of power transmission line |
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| CN109472421A (en) * | 2018-11-22 | 2019-03-15 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | A kind of power grid mountain fire sprawling method for early warning and device |
| CN109670260A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-04-23 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | A kind of mountain fire sprawling Area Prediction method, apparatus and equipment |
| CN109670260B (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2021-06-29 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Method, device and equipment for predicting forest fire spreading area |
| CN110210769A (en) * | 2019-06-06 | 2019-09-06 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | A kind of transmission line forest fire sprawling Risk Forecast Method and system |
| CN113221057A (en) * | 2021-05-14 | 2021-08-06 | 山东省生态环境监测中心 | Straw burning fire point monitoring method based on multi-temporal satellite images |
| CN117236671A (en) * | 2023-11-15 | 2023-12-15 | 深圳金三立视频科技股份有限公司 | Dynamic real-time monitoring method and system for mountain fire of power transmission line |
| CN117236671B (en) * | 2023-11-15 | 2024-03-19 | 深圳金三立视频科技股份有限公司 | Dynamic real-time monitoring method and system for mountain fire of power transmission line |
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