CN105739478A - Missile fault prediction device and method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a novel missile fault prediction device which is widely used in the aerospace automation measurement and control technical field. The device is mainly composed of a PXI measurement and control system, a KVM integral machine, a printer, a test cable, a historic fault database, and missile fault prediction software. By combining virtual apparatus technologies and automatic measurement and control technologies, the device is in direct butt joint with the missile fault prediction software. All previous missile fault diagnosis results are automatically stored in the historic database, and by employing a prediction algorithm, a next possible fault position is predicted, and a part most likely to break down is found, thereby helping the missile fault prediction software to rapidly determine a fault scope, and avoiding a diagnosis mode starting diagnosis from a fixed source. The device can effectively reduce diagnosis time and improve test efficiency, possesses higher use values, and is already applied to the test and fault diagnosis filed of missiles in various tactical models.

Description

A kind of Missile Fault prediction Apparatus and method for

Technical field

The present invention relates to space flight automatic measure control technical field, be specifically related to one and Missile Fault data are stored, historical failure data is carried out automatically Algorithm Analysis, and provides conclusion, the final Apparatus and method for helping tester to be rapidly completed Fault Diagnosis of Missile.

Background technology

Missile Fault forecasting software, is mainly used in the fault diagnosis of guided missile.Every guided missile is before dispatching from the factory, it is necessary to through strict general assembly test link.If a certain index occurs abnormal in test process, then need at once to snapping into row fault diagnosis.The fault diagnosis of guided missile has special equipment platform at present, and has special fault diagnosis software to realize automaticdiagnosis.

But, due to multiple parts on an index produced problem often corresponding bullet, and between all parts, often also have some corresponding relations, so the fault diagnosis of guided missile generally includes multiple sub-project to be measured, a whole set of fault diagnosis testing process is typically necessary a large amount of testing time, the all parts of guided missile is carried out fault diagnosis test without emphasis, a large amount of manpower, time will be consumed, and efficiency is very low.

Summary of the invention

The problem that this invention address that is that existing Missile Fault Forecasting Methodology efficiency is low；For solving described problem, the present invention provides a kind of Missile Fault prediction Apparatus and method for.

The pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault provided by the invention includes: PXI TT&C system, KVM all-in-one, historical failure data storehouse, test cable, Missile Fault forecasting software;The all previous Fault Diagnosis of Missile result of described historical failure data library storage;Described Missile Fault forecasting software predicts the next position broken down according to historical failure data storehouse, and to historical failure data storehouse real-time update;Described PXI TT&C system controls according to predicting the outcome, guided missile to be tested, and feeds back to Missile Fault forecasting software, finds out fault；Described KVM all-in-one is used for terminal operation and display.

Further, also including test cable, described test cable is for being connected with guided missile to be measured.

Further, interface adapter and self-checking unit are also included；Described interface adapter provides and connects interface, and described self-checking unit is used for equipment self-inspection.

Further, described Missile Fault forecasting software is divided into database update to call software and Algorithm Analysis forecasting software；Described database update calls software and docks with Missile Fault forecasting software, updates historical failure data storehouse;Data in historical failure data storehouse are analyzed by Algorithm Analysis forecasting software by prediction algorithm, and next time possible trouble location is predicted.

Further, described prediction algorithm includes method of least square and exponential smoothing.

The Forecasting Methodology of the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault provided by the present invention, including:

Step one, Missile Fault forecasting software transfer historical failure data storehouse, it was predicted that the probability that various faults occur；

Step 2, break down after, according to predicting the outcome in step one, PXI TT&C system starts test for the fault that probability is high, finds out fault.

The invention have the advantages that

Combined with virtual technical device of the present invention, automatic measuring and controlling technology and prediction, inventory management techniques, be acquired analysis, fault diagnosis, be stored automatically in historical failure data storehouse by the latest result of fault diagnosis test event.By the data in this database table, just available prediction algorithm, exponential smoothing in Time Series Analysis Forecasting method and method of least square scheduling algorithm, be analyzed the historical data in historical failure data storehouse, it was predicted that goes out the abort situation that the next stage the most easily occurs.And automatically give and tester's prompting before fault diagnosis in next time, allow tester can position rapidly the most incident several positions of fault, compared to the diagnostic mode needing project one by one to test successively in the past, that shoots the arrow at the target carries out testing and diagnosing and can be greatly shortened failure diagnosis time, and then promotes test job efficiency.

The present invention has been successfully applied in the fault diagnosis test of part tactics type of missile, and achieves good economy and scientific and technical result.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 Missile Fault prognoses system test system structure composition schematic diagram of the present invention.

Detailed description of the invention

By background technology it can be seen that in carrying out test of missile process, a certain index is overproof if occurring, then will forward Fault Diagnosis of Missile flow process at once to.But when carrying out Fault Diagnosis of Missile, current Fault Diagnosis of Missile is that the whole test events to guided missile of haircuting are tested one by one；Existing Fault Diagnosis of Missile method efficiency is low.It is consistent or close that inventor studies discovery working condition, and there is certain relatedness at the Missile Fault position of same batch or adjacent several batches.Therefore by writing a kind of Missile Fault forecasting software, historical diagnostic record analysis is gone out the abort situation of most possible appearance, allows fault diagnosis software carry out diagnostic analysis more targetedly, it is possible to promote work efficiency, shorten the testing time greatly.

Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described:

The pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault provided by the present invention and guided missile test set equipment platform altogether, it is the device hardware composition schematic diagram of the present invention as shown in Figure 1, including PXI TT&C system 11, KVM all-in-one 12, interface adapter 13, self-checking unit, printer 15, test cable 16, Missile Fault forecasting software.

Described PXI TT&C system is the general name of the standard hardware boards such as PXI-8110, PXI-2503, PXI-2530, PXI-4065, mainly provides the hardware resource needed for testing and control, parameter testing, data acquisition and outside port functional test.Wherein PXI-8110 is an Embedded Zero greeve controller, internal prepackage WindowsXP operating system, all drivings of PXI bus board and Missile Fault forecasting software and SQL-SERVER database software.

Described KVM all-in-one is mainly used in terminal operation and the display of the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault.

Described historical failure data storehouse is to be built by SQL-SERVER database software, and trouble unit, fault message that each Fault Diagnosis of Missile draws all can be automatically added in data base, call for Missile Fault forecasting software.

Described Missile Fault forecasting software is divided into database update to call software and Algorithm Analysis forecasting software two parts.Database update calls software and docks with guided missile diagnostic software, sets up a fault history frequency table in historical failure data storehouse, and the total degree that each batch of guided missile each several part breaks down is stored in table.After single-shot Fault Diagnosis of Missile terminates acquisition trouble location, automatically obtaining corresponding diagnostic message, its number of stoppages of corresponding batch adds one, to ensure that in data base, data are in last state all the time.Data in historical failure data storehouse are predicted analyzing by Algorithm Analysis forecasting software by prediction algorithm, show that next time tests the percentage ratio that each parts the most easily break down, and feed back to user by human-computer interaction interface.For ensureing the portability of software so that it is can directly dock with Fault Diagnosis of Missile software.Failure predication software uses the programming language LabView2011 same with Fault Diagnosis of Missile software, completes writing of this failure predication software.And generate visual user's interactive interface.

Prediction algorithm is the core of whole Missile Fault prognoses system, whether whether prediction algorithm it is critical only that accurately can be set up suitable mathematical model according to the trend of existing data and data variation, when model can reflect the inherent Changing Pattern of data well, then the prediction data of model will compare identical with actual data, otherwise then there is bigger error.

Quantitative analysis predicted method is the prediction algorithm that a class is important, this type of method is first depending on the data information of investigation gained, use statistical method and mathematical model, disclose the variation of quantity relation of prediction object and influence factor thereof approx, set up corresponding forecast model, accordingly prediction target is made the Forecasting Methodology of quantitatively measuring and calculating.Time Series Analysis Forecasting method, as the one of quantitative analysis predicted method, coaches with seriality prediction principle, utilizes the time series that historical perspective value is formed, and prediction target to-be and development trend are made rational judgment.Through repeatedly modeling checking, finally determine and combine with exponential smoothing with the method for least square in Time Series Analysis Forecasting method, be modeled application as prediction algorithm.

Exponential smoothing has the features such as easy to use, simple to operate, adopt the strategy of " weight is near light remote ", time series is repaiied all, it focuses on the seasonal effect in time series long-term numerical value joint effect for forecasted future value more, namely each data of seasonal effect in time series are weighted on average, the data that time is more near, its weights are more big so that it is the change of follow timing pulse.Three-exponential Smoothing is to have carried out again once smoothing on the basis of secondary smooth value, it is possible to estimating the parameter value of quadratic polynomial with it, the model of foundation is:

(1)

This model is nonlinear, and it is similar to quadratic polynomial phase, it is possible to manifest the variation tendency of sequential preferably, is frequently used for the state of development of prediction nonlinear change sequential.The Prediction Parameters of third index flatness is calculated by following formula respectively:

(2)

(3)

(4)

Smooth value is respectively as follows:

(5)

(6)

(7)

Wherein initial valueTake coefficientValue is 0.2, by the mode of recursion, releases the smooth value of a currently up-to-date project fault value from first group of data.The Prediction Parameters of correspondence is obtained by formula (1)-(7)、、Value, thus obtain next time fault it may happen that the predictive value of number of times。

Trend extropolation predicted method

In a time series, often there are certain long-term trend.Trend extrapolation is exactly select a suitable trend curve equation to it, using the foundation as outside forecast, is one of the basic skills of actuarial prediction.Having different parameter identification methods for different trend models, native system adopts method of least square.

Method of least square is widely used a kind of curve-fitting method.Advantage is that computing is simple, can the random disturbances in smoothed trend well, the parameter in equation is made unbiased esti-mator.

Equally first native system calls in data base fault history frequency table to obtain sample data.Adopting second-degree parabola: y=a+bt+ct2 to carry out matching, obtain total year number n in table, if n is odd number adopts coordinate translation method, taking (n+1)/2 time is standard year, if n is for even, taking the n-th/2 time is standard year.The issue t that standard year is corresponding is 0, gradually adds one every year backward, gradually subtracts one every year before.

Method of least square solution formula is as follows:

∑r=an+b∑t+c∑t2(8)

∑t*r=a∑t+b∑t2+c∑t3(9)

∑t2*r=a∑t2+b∑t3+c∑t3*t(10)

Wherein ∑ r and each year quantity in stock summation, a, b, c is the coefficient parameter of parabola of fit.Drawing the value of a, b, c, the value that can obtain next year prediction quantity in stock is: y=a+b*1+c*12=a+b+c

Use prediction algorithm that the number of stoppages in tables of data is carried out trend analysis prediction, the contingent number of times of this trouble location next time can be obtained.Finally realizing the human-computer interaction interface of software, user clicks and predicts the outcome after button, and the prediction probability that guided missile all parts breaks down next time all can be shown in program panel.Human-computer interaction interface display method of least square and the probability that the next time that two kinds of algorithms of exponential smoothing obtain, various fault occurred, can be weighted the result of two kinds of algorithms merging, to improve precision in a preferred embodiment of the invention.Such as have employed rectangular histogram Y-factor method Y two kinds of prediction algorithms are optimized；Calculate the accuracy of two kinds of Forecasting Methodologies each test event corresponding according to statistical result, and be multiplied by corresponding constraint factor；To obtain predicting the outcome of final various fault Probability, consequently facilitating technical staff is according to probability order one by onechecking from high to low, find out fault.

The present invention completes the design and development of a kind of Missile Fault prognoses system, in actual application test, uses this software that the fault data of several batches in certain type of missile 1 year has been predicted, failure predication rate of accuracy reached 75.6%.The trouble location that guided missile next time, test was likely to occur can be predicted by visible this software of use well.

Claims (6)

1. the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault, it is characterised in that including: PXI TT&C system, historical failure data storehouse, KVM all-in-one, test cable, Missile Fault forecasting software;The all previous Fault Diagnosis of Missile result of described historical failure data library storage;Described Missile Fault forecasting software predicts the next position broken down according to historical failure data storehouse, and to historical failure data storehouse real-time update;Described PXI TT&C system controls according to predicting the outcome, guided missile to be tested, and feeds back to Missile Fault forecasting software, finds out fault；Described KVM all-in-one is used for terminal operation and display.

2., according to the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault described in claim 1, it is characterised in that also include test cable, described test cable is for being connected with guided missile to be measured.

3. according to the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault described in claim 1, it is characterised in that also include interface adapter and self-checking unit；Described interface adapter provides and connects interface, and described self-checking unit is used for equipment self-inspection.

4. according to the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described Missile Fault forecasting software is divided into database update to call software and Algorithm Analysis forecasting software；Described database update calls software and docks with Missile Fault forecasting software, updates historical failure data storehouse;Data in historical failure data storehouse are analyzed by Algorithm Analysis forecasting software by prediction algorithm, and next time possible trouble location is predicted.

5. according to the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault described in claim 4, it is characterised in that described prediction algorithm includes method of least square and exponential smoothing.

6. the Forecasting Methodology of the pre-measurement equipment of Missile Fault that in claim 1 to 5, any one provides, it is characterised in that including:

Step one, Missile Fault forecasting software transfer historical failure data storehouse, it was predicted that the probability that various faults occur；

Step 2, break down after, according to predicting the outcome in step one, PXI TT&C system starts test for the fault that probability is high, finds out fault.