CN105699797A - Distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction method and distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction device - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction method and a distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction device. The distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction device comprises a signal acquisition unit, an A/D conversion unit, a CPU central processing unit, a 4G communication transmission unit and a human-computer interaction information display unit, and is characterized in that signals acquired by the signal acquisition unit are output to the input end of the A/D conversion unit, the output end of the A/D conversion unit is connected with the input end of the CPU central processing unit, the CPU central processing unit is connected with the input ends of the human-computer interaction information display unit and the 4G communication transmission unit, and the signal acquisition unit is composed of a current transformer, a voltage transformer, a humidity sensor, a temperature sensor and a rainfall sensor. The distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction method and the distribution network capacitor remaining life prediction device have the advantages of simple input extraction, high precision, high accuracy and high prediction efficiency, and provide an effective guarantee for safe operation of distribution network capacitors.

Description

A kind of distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life and device

Technical field

The invention belongs to power transmission and distribution monitoring technical field, particularly to a kind of distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life and device。

Background technology

Distribution capacitor regulates as distribution network voltage and reduces the equipment of transmission line loss, and distribution network voltage is stable and power flowcontrol has important function, and electric distributing network reactive trend distribution will be caused significant impact by capacitor faults。The long-time use procedure of distribution capacitor is often subjected to the load exceeding its rated current in short-term, capacitor can be caused certain damage by short-time overload, the continuous accumulation of damage then can ultimately result in capacitor faults, has a strong impact on Reliability of Power Supplying Net Work and electric power netting safe running。Therefore, accurately grasping distribution capacitor residual life, to Regulation, department is most important。The methods such as current traditional method mainly adopts Conventional wisdom formula calculate or make regular check on, replacing, the subject matter existed is can not to find fault in time, it was predicted that or judged result error is bigger etc.。

Summary of the invention

For the deficiencies in the prior art, it is an object of the present invention to provide a kind of distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life, by setting up the distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life model of applicable practical implementation, to efficiently solve the accurate prediction to distribution capacitor residual life。

It is a further object to provide a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device, have input quantity and extract simply, degree of accuracy is high, and accuracy is good, it was predicted that efficiency is high, and the safe operation for distribution capacitor provides effective guarantee。

To achieve these goals, the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:

A kind of distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life, it is characterised in that step is as follows:

Step one: set up the state vector of distribution capacitor residual life Evolution System:

Condenser current, condenser voltage, capacitor temperature, rainfall, air humidity is measured, at a series of moment t at Fixed Time Interval₁,t₂,...,t_n(n is natural number, n=1,2 ...) and obtain condenser current, condenser voltage, capacitor temperature, rainfall, air humidity constitute a series of state vectors:

$\begin{array}{c}{X}_{t_1}={(x_{11},x_{12},x_{13},x_{14},x_{15})}^T\\ X_{t_2}={(x_{21},x_{22},x_{23},x_{24},x_{25})}^T\\ ...\\ X_{t_n}={(x_{n1},x_{n2},x_{n3},x_{n4},x_{n5})}^T\end{array}$

Step 2: given initial weight vector:

Random given t₁MomentCorresponding connection weight vector

$W_{t_1}={(w_{11},w_{12},w_{13},w_{14},w_{15})}^T$

It is initial weight vector。

Step 3: revise weight vector:

After the state vector input in any one moment, weight vector adjustment amount is:

$W_{t_n}=\left(1\right)\sqrt{{\left({W_{t_n}}^T{X}_{t_n}\right)}^2}$

For adjusting accelerator coefficient。

Given Life threshold value control amount K_D, the actual prediction value making capacitor residual life is

$y_{t_n}={W_{t_n}}^T{X}_{t_n}$

Then weighed value adjusting equation is:

$W_{t_n}=\left(1\right)\sqrt{{\left(\left(y_{t_n}{K}_D\right)X_{t_n}\right)}^2}$

Step 4: calculate weight vector end value W₀:

Definition t_nFor lifetime threshold controlled quentity controlled variable K_DWith the difference of actual prediction value, have:

$t_n={\left(y_{t_n}{K}_D\right)}^2$

If t_nShi Keyou: t_nLess than set-point, then now correspondingIt is weight vector end value W₀。

Step 5: calculate distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value:

For any instant t_n+1, according to W₀, have:

$y_{t_{n+1}}={W_{t_{n1}}}^T{X}_{t_{n+1}}$

It is distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value。

A kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device, including signal gathering unit, A/D converting unit, CPU CPU, 4G communications unit and human-machine interactive information display unit, it is characterized in that: the signal that described signal gathering unit gathers exports the input to A/D converting unit, the outfan of described A/D converting unit is connected with the input of CPU CPU, described CPU CPU is connected with the input of human-machine interactive information display unit and 4G communications unit, described signal gathering unit is by current transformer, voltage transformer, humidity sensor, temperature sensor and rainfall amount sensor composition。

Described current transformer adopts DHC03B model, voltage transformer to adopt DH51D6V0.4B model, humidity sensor to adopt STYB3100111A50 model, temperature sensor to adopt HE-200 model infrared temperature sensor, rainfall amount sensor to adopt BL-YW900 model radar level gauge。

Described A/D converting unit selects TLC2543 serial a/d transducer。

Described CPU CPU selects model to be the single-chip microcomputer of STM32F103RBT6。

The described LTE module that 4G communications unit is ME3760 model。

The described LCD MODULE that human-machine interactive information display unit is TFT_LCD model。

The outfan of described signal gathering unit is respectively through the input AIN0 being connected to A/D converter TLC2543 after signaling conversion circuit, AIN1, AIN2, AIN3, the outfan EOC of AIN4, A/D converter TLC2543, I/O, IN, OUT, CS is connected respectively to the PA1 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PA2, PA3, PA4, PA5 pin, the PB0 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PB1, PB2, PB3, PB4, PB5, PB6, PB7, PB8, PB9, PB10, PB11, PB12, PB13, PB14, PB15 respectively with the DB1 of LCD MODULE, DB2, DB3, DB4, DB5, DB6, DB7, DB8, DB11, DB10, DB17, DB12, DB13, DB14, DB15, DB16 connects, the PC0 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4, PC5, PC6, PC7, the CS of PC8 and LCD MODULE, WR, RST, BL, MISO, RS, RD, MOSI, SLK is connected, the PC9 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PC10 pin communicates with 4G the DATA of LTE module of ME3760 model, DATA1 end is connected, and the ATN1 end of 4G communications module carries out communication by antenna and remote dispatching center。。

Owing to adopting technique scheme so that the present invention compared with prior art has following prominent beneficial effect:

One distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device of the present invention, propose to utilize and directly measure condenser current, condenser voltage, capacitor temperature, rainfall, air humidity as input quantity, and finally utilize A/D converting unit, CPU CPU, human-machine interactive information display unit and 4G transport module to realize distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life。The methods such as this method avoids conventionally employed empirical equation calculate or make regular check on, replacing, the subject matter existed is can not to find fault in time, it was predicted that or judged result error is bigger, and there is input quantity and extract simple, degree of accuracy is high, and accuracy is good, it was predicted that the feature that efficiency is high。

One distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life of the present invention, by setting up the distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life model of applicable practical implementation, to efficiently solve the accurate prediction to distribution capacitor residual life。Distribution capacitor residual life is made prediction, electrical network major accident can be prevented, improve power quality, improve electricity consumption reliability, prediction process requirement of real time simultaneously, improve the efficiency of data acquisition and process, improve speed and the precision of distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life, it is achieved that with the advantage of degree of precision and relatively short response time, distribution capacitor residual life is predicted。There is good economic benefit and social benefit。

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is one distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life flow chart of the present invention；

Fig. 2 is the structural schematic block diagram of the present invention；

Fig. 3 is the circuit connection structure schematic diagram of the present invention；

Fig. 4 is the figure that predicts the outcome of the present invention。

Detailed description of the invention

Below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail。Following example are only several specific embodiments of the present invention, but the design concept of the present invention is not limited thereto, all changes utilizing this design that the present invention carries out unsubstantiality, all should within scope。

As it is shown in figure 1, one distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life of the present invention, its step is as follows:

Step one: set up the state vector of distribution capacitor residual life Evolution System:

In the present embodiment, within 30 equally spaced time periods, measure condenser current, condenser voltage, capacitor temperature, rainfall, air humidity, then obtain one the 5 dimension time series that measurement data is constituted:

$\begin{array}{c}{X}_{t_1}={(x_{11},x_{12},x_{13},x_{14},x_{15})}^T\\ X_{t_2}={(x_{21},x_{22},x_{23},x_{24},x_{25})}^T\\ ...\\ X_{t_{30}}={(x_{301},x_{302},x_{303},x_{304},x_{305})}^T\end{array}$

Step 2: calculate initial weight vector:

Given t₁MomentCorresponding connection weight vector $W_{t_1}={\left(\mathrm{0.021,0.091,0.042,0.089,0.65}\right)}^T,$ For initial weight vector。

Step 3: revise weight vector:

Given Life threshold value control amount K_D=0.49823, byMake accelerator coefficient=0.39765, then modified weight amount is:

$W_{t_n}=\left(1\right)\sqrt{{\left(\left(y_{t_n}{K}_D\right)X_{t_n}\right)}^2}$

Step 4: calculate weight vector end value W₀:

Mathematic(al) expectation threshold value control amount K_DDifference t with actual prediction value_n:

$t_n={\left(y_{t_n}{K}_D\right)}^2$

If t_nShi Keyou: t_n0.004512, then now correspondingIt is weight vector end value W₀。

Step 5: calculate distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value:

For any instant t_n+1, according to W₀, have:

$y_{t_{n+1}}={W_{t_{n1}}}^T{X}_{t_{n+1}}$

It is distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value。

The fractional prediction result of forecast model compares as shown in Figure 4 with measured value, and the error prediction model set up substantially controls within ± 8%。

As shown in Figure 2, one distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device of the present invention, including signal gathering unit, A/D converting unit, CPU CPU, 4G communications unit and human-machine interactive information display unit, it is characterized in that: the signal that described signal gathering unit gathers exports the input to A/D converting unit, the outfan of described A/D converting unit is connected with the input of CPU CPU, described CPU CPU is connected with the input of human-machine interactive information display unit and 4G communications unit, described signal gathering unit is by current transformer, voltage transformer, humidity sensor, temperature sensor and rainfall amount sensor composition。Described current transformer adopts DHC03B model, voltage transformer to adopt DH51D6V0.4B model, humidity sensor to adopt STYB3100111A50 model, temperature sensor to adopt HE-200 model infrared temperature sensor, rainfall amount sensor to adopt BL-YW900 model radar level gauge。Described A/D converting unit selects TLC2543 serial a/d transducer。Described CPU CPU selects model to be the single-chip microcomputer of STM32F103RBT6。The described LTE module that 4G communications unit is ME3760 model。The described LCD MODULE that human-machine interactive information display unit is TFT_LCD model。

As it is shown on figure 3, the outfan of signal gathering unit is respectively through the input AIN0 being connected to A/D converter TLC2543 after signaling conversion circuit, AIN1, AIN2, AIN3, the outfan EOC of AIN4, A/D converter TLC2543, I/O, IN, OUT, CS is connected respectively to the PA1 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PA2, PA3, PA4, PA5 pin, the PB0 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PB1, PB2, PB3, PB4, PB5, PB6, PB7, PB8, PB9, PB10, PB11, PB12, PB13, PB14, PB15 respectively with the DB1 of LCD MODULE, DB2, DB3, DB4, DB5, DB6, DB7, DB8, DB11, DB10, DB17, DB12, DB13, DB14, DB15, DB16 connects, the PC0 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4, PC5, PC6, PC7, the CS of PC8 and LCD MODULE, WR, RST, BL, MISO, RS, RD, MOSI, SLK is connected, the PC9 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PC10 pin communicates with 4G the DATA of LTE module of ME3760 model, DATA1 end is connected, and the ATN1 end of 4G communications module carries out communication by antenna and remote dispatching center。

The operation principle of the present invention is as follows:

Through current transformer, voltage transformer, humidity sensor, temperature sensor and rainfall amount sensor, carry out synchronized sampling, maintenance, A/D conversion, after becoming digital signal, send into the data input port of the single-chip microcomputer of STM32F103RBT6, after distribution capacitor residual life data being calculated by single-chip microcomputer again, result of calculation is displayed by LCD MODULE and data is delivered to 4G transport module, for ready with remote dispatching communication；A/D converting unit is for converting the analogue signal of signal gathering unit collection to digital signal；The digital signal that A/D converting unit is exported by CPU CPU processes；Human-machine interactive information display unit distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life result shows；4G communications unit is for sending distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value to receiving terminal。

It should be noted that; the particular of the present invention is to the present invention have been described in detail; for a person skilled in the art, the various apparent change when without departing substantially from the spirit and scope of the present invention, it carried out is all within protection scope of the present invention。

Claims (8)

1. a distribution capacitor method for predicting residual useful life, it is characterised in that step is as follows:

Step one: set up the state vector of distribution capacitor residual life Evolution System:

Condenser current, condenser voltage, capacitor temperature, rainfall, air humidity is measured, at a series of moment t at Fixed Time Interval₁,t₂,...,t_n(n is natural number, n=1,2 ...) and obtain condenser current, condenser voltage, capacitor temperature, rainfall, air humidity constitute a series of state vectors:

$\begin{array}{c}{X}_{t_1}={(x_{11},x_{12},x_{13},x_{14},x_{15})}^T\\ X_{t_2}={(x_{21},x_{22},x_{23}{,x}_{24},x_{25})}^T\\ ...\\ X_{t_n}={(x_{n1},x_{n2},x_{n3},x_{n4},x_{n5})}^T\end{array}$

Step 2: given initial weight vector:

Random given t₁MomentCorresponding connection weight vector

$W_{t_1}={(w_{11},w_{12},w_{13},w_{14},w_{15})}^T$

It is initial weight vector。

Step 3: revise weight vector:

After the state vector input in any one moment, weight vector adjustment amount is:

$W_{t_n}=\left(\begin{array}{cc}1& \end{array}\right)\sqrt{{\left({W_{t_n}}^T{X}_{t_n}\right)}^2}$

For adjusting accelerator coefficient。

Given Life threshold value control amount K_D, the actual prediction value making capacitor residual life is

$y_{t_n}={W_{t_n}}^T{X}_{t_n}$

Then weighed value adjusting equation is:

$W_{t_n}=\left(\begin{array}{cc}1& \end{array}\right)\sqrt{{\left(\left(\begin{array}{cc}{y}_{t_n}& K_D\end{array}\right)X_{t_n}\right)}^2}$

Step 4: calculate weight vector end value W₀:

Definition t_nFor lifetime threshold controlled quentity controlled variable K_DWith the difference of actual prediction value, have:

$t_n={\left(\begin{array}{cc}{y}_{t_n}& K_D\end{array}\right)}^2$

If t_nShi Keyou: t_nLess than set-point, then now correspondingIt is weight vector end value W₀。

Step 5: calculate distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value:

For any instant t_n+1, according to W₀, have:

$y_{t_{n+1}}={W_{t_{n1}}}^T{X}_{t_{n+1}}$

It is distribution capacitor predicting residual useful life value。

2. distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device described in a claim 1, including signal gathering unit, A/D converting unit, CPU CPU, 4G communications unit and human-machine interactive information display unit, it is characterized in that: the signal that described signal gathering unit gathers exports the input to A/D converting unit, the outfan of described A/D converting unit is connected with the input of CPU CPU, described CPU CPU is connected with the input of human-machine interactive information display unit and 4G communications unit, described signal gathering unit is by current transformer, voltage transformer, humidity sensor, temperature sensor and rainfall amount sensor composition。

3. a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described current transformer adopts DHC03B model, voltage transformer to adopt DH51D6V0.4B model, humidity sensor to adopt STYB3100111A50 model, temperature sensor to adopt HE-200 model infrared temperature sensor, rainfall amount sensor to adopt BL-YW900 model radar level gauge。

4. a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described A/D converting unit selects TLC2543 serial a/d transducer。

5. a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described CPU CPU selects model to be the single-chip microcomputer of STM32F103RBT6。

6. a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: the described LTE module that 4G communications unit is ME3760 model。

7. a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: the described LCD MODULE that human-machine interactive information display unit is TFT_LCD model。

8. a kind of distribution capacitor residual service life prediction device according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: the outfan of described signal gathering unit is respectively through the input AIN0 being connected to A/D converter TLC2543 after signaling conversion circuit, AIN1, AIN2, AIN3, the outfan EOC of AIN4, A/D converter TLC2543, I/O, IN, OUT, CS is connected respectively to the PA1 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PA2, PA3, PA4, PA5 pin, the PB0 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PB1, PB2, PB3, PB4, PB5, PB6, PB7, PB8, PB9, PB10, PB11, PB12, PB13, PB14, PB15 respectively with the DB1 of LCD MODULE, DB2, DB3, DB4, DB5, DB6, DB7, DB8, DB11, DB10, DB17, DB12, DB13, DB14, DB15, DB16 connects, the PC0 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4, PC5, PC6, PC7, the CS of PC8 and LCD MODULE, WR, RST, BL, MISO, RS, RD, MOSI, SLK is connected, the PC9 of single-chip microcomputer STM32F103RBT6 chip, PC10 pin communicates with 4G the DATA of LTE of ME3760 model, DATA1 end is connected, and the ATN1 end of 4G communications module carries out communication by antenna and remote dispatching center。