CN105678008B - A kind of power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method and system - Google Patents
A kind of power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method and system, including：According to power transformer cost of investment, cost depletions, Environmental costs, operation expense, failure cost and a scrap cost, the computation model of structure power transformer economic surplus Life Cost；The computation model being lost every year according to power transformer economic surplus Life Cost, structure power transformer economic surplus life-span；Set the span in power transformer economic surplus life-span；According to the span, it is lost every year using each economic surplus life-span in the Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm calculating span；Inquire about and determine the average annual loss of minimum in the span in the average annual loss of all economic surplus life-spans；According to the minimum average annual economic surplus life-span that the corresponding economic surplus life-span is lost, determines power transformer.The present invention has fully taken into account the factor of business decision, improves the degree of accuracy and the reasonability of result.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to transformer economic operation, Life Assessment Technology field, is passed through more particularly to a kind of power transformer
Ji residue lifetime estimation method and system.
Background technology
For power transformer as one of critical component in power network, it, which safely and reliably runs, directly influences power supply reliably
Property and the economic benefit of enterprise.It is just necessary in order to reduce cost caused by Transformer from electricity consumption enterprise angle
State and life-span to transformer make assessment.
Generally, the life-span of power transformer is divided into physical life, reliable life and economic life.Physical life refers to become
Depressor is from coming into operation can not be continuing with and beyond economic repair whole time course.The reliable life of transformer refers to
In the range of the reliability of setting, i.e., in the range of certain probability of malfunction, equipment can normal continuous operation time estimation, be one
Kind Statistical Probabilistic Models.Economic life is to determine the transformer retired time from economics point.
Being currently based on the full economic life period of transformer has more research, mainly with the whole life cycle of transformer
Average operating cost is minimum to be used as retired foundation, sets the life-span of transformer first, then calculates average annual cost, minimum is average annual
Life-span corresponding to cost is the full economic life period of transformer, and the result of transformer economic life cycle computation of Period model is to make
Obtain expenditure cost and following cost budgeting synthesis reaches minimum.
Above-mentioned model does not consider processing method when calculating parameter varies widely, but in fact, with the time
Growth or the change of business decision, the span of transformer station high-voltage side bus cost calculation parameter, which is likely occurred, significantly to be changed,
Such as electricity price, if not being modified according to actual conditions to above-mentioned model, calculating the transformer life of gained can not reach
It is economically optimal.
Because the calculating parameter of transformer station high-voltage side bus cost has uncertainty mostly, prior art mainly uses in the calculation
MC algorithms (Monte Carlo, Monte Carlo), its main thought are：Assuming that all parameters are obeyed uniformly in its interval
Distribution, randomly selects numerical value in the interval of each parameter, calculates the result of function, after this step is carried out into n times, by institute
Some function results are summed up averagely, when N is sufficiently large, it is believed that averaging of income value is the desired value of function.In journey
In terms of sequence realization, MC algorithms are relatively slow in convergence rate, thus the program calculating speed based on MC algorithms can be adversely affected.
The content of the invention
A kind of appraisal procedure and system in transformer economic surplus life-span are provided in the embodiment of the present invention, to avoid transformation
Device changes the waste of brought cost too early, while is also prevented from using time long brought larger potential safety hazard.
In order to solve the above-mentioned technical problem, the embodiment of the invention discloses following technical scheme：
The invention provides a kind of power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method, including：
According to power transformer cost of investment, cost depletions, Environmental costs, operation expense, a failure cost
And scrap cost, structure power transformer economic surplus Life Cost CRLC(T1) computation model；
According to power transformer economic surplus Life Cost, C is lost in the structure power transformer economic surplus life-span every yearERLC
Computation model；
Set the span in power transformer economic surplus life-span；
According to the span, each economic surplus in the span is calculated using Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm
Life-span is lost every year；
Inquire about and determine the average annual loss of minimum in the span in the average annual loss of all economic surplus life-spans；
According to the minimum average annual economic surplus life-span that the corresponding economic surplus life-span is lost, determines power transformer
TERL；
Wherein, the CRLC(T1) be
The CERLCFor
The TERLFor
T0It is that power transformer has run year, T when enterprise changes tactful1It is to arrive power transformer after enterprise changes strategy
Year between when scrapping, C1It is a cost of investment, C2iIt is 1 year cost depletions, C3iIt is 1 year Environmental costs, C4iRepresent
The operation expense of 1 year, C5iFor 1 year failure cost, C6iFor in 1 year cost scrapped.
Preferably, the Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm includes：
The integral function of each cost of the power transformer is constructed respectively；
Construct the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of parameter in each cost；
In the span in the power transformer economic surplus life-span, choose after an enterprise changes strategy and arrive electricity
Year between when power transformer is scrapped；
Year between during for being scrapped after the enterprise change strategy of selection to power transformer, repeatedly from described each
Damage of the direct access as the parameter value calculation power transformer in each cost is carried out in the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of parameter
Consumption；
The loss calculation result of all power transformers of calculating is summed up averagely, show that power transformer damages
Average value is consumed, i.e. the economic surplus life-span is lost every year；
The economy of year and the power transformer between when being scrapped after output enterprise change strategy to power transformer
Residual life is lost every year.
Preferably, year and the power transformer between when being scrapped after enterprise's change strategy to power transformer
The economic surplus life-span every year loss before, in addition to：
Year between during for being scrapped after same enterprise's change strategy to power transformer, calculates adjacent institute twice
State the difference percentage between power transformer loss average value；
Judge the size of the difference percentage and given threshold；
If the difference percentage is less than the given threshold twice in succession, the economy of output power transformer remains
The remaining life-span is lost every year；
If the difference percentage is discontinuously less than the given threshold twice, change for the enterprise chosen
Year between when being scrapped after becoming tactful to power transformer, parameter value is randomly selected again, and repeat successively to count according to described
The method of calculation is calculated.
Preferably, the given threshold is 5%.
A kind of power transformer economic surplus service life evaluation system, including data computation module, the data computation module
Including sequence generating unit, analogue computer, iterations judgement unit and intermediate result processing unit, wherein,
The sequence generating unit is used to generate one-dimensional low deviation sequence；
The analogue computer is used for the calculating for generating direct access and each iterative process, and sentencing iterations
The iterations judgement unit Liang be sent to；
The iterations judgement unit is used to determine whether to carry out next iteration, and all iterative calculation results are sent out
It is sent to the analogue computer；
The intermediate result processing unit is used to calculate the power transformer economic surplus life-span, and carries out power transformer most
The small judgement being lost every year, determine the power transformer economic surplus life-span.
Preferably, the system also includes data input module, data storage module and human-computer interaction module, wherein,
Parameter input and parameter definition signal needed for the data input module to human-computer interaction module transmission, and will
The parameter of acquisition is sent to the data storage module after being classified；
The human-computer interaction module is used to input the required parameter, the result for showing the result of input and calculating；
The data storage module is used to store the required parameter, and the required parameter is sent into the data meter
Calculate module.
From above technical scheme, a kind of power transformer economic surplus life appraisal side provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Method, methods described include：According to power transformer cost of investment, cost depletions, Environmental costs, operation expense,
Each cost of failure cost and scrap cost, build the computation model of power transformer economic surplus Life Cost；According to electric power
Transformer economic surplus Life Cost, the computation model that the structure power transformer economic surplus life-span is lost every year；Set electric power
The span in transformer economic surplus life-span；According to the span, the value is calculated using Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm
In the range of each economic surplus life-span be lost every year；Inquire about and determine all years in economic surplus life-span in the span
The average annual loss of minimum in being lost；According to the minimum average annual loss corresponding economic surplus life-span, power transformer is determined
The economic surplus life-span of device.
A kind of power transformer economic surplus service life evaluation system, including data computation module, the data computation module
Including sequence generating unit, analogue computer, iterations judgement unit and intermediate result processing unit, wherein, the sequence
Column-generation unit is used to generate one-dimensional low deviation sequence, and the analogue computer is used to generate direct access and each iteration mistake
The calculating of journey, and the differentiation amount of iterations is sent to the iterations judgement unit, the iterations judgement unit
For determining whether to carry out next iteration, and all iterative calculation results are sent to the intermediate result processing unit, institute
State intermediate result processing unit to be used to calculate the power transformer economic surplus life-span, and carry out the minimum average annual loss of power transformer
Judgement, determine the power transformer economic surplus life-span.
In computational methods, the present invention is using the time of Parameters variation (such as electricity price) as separation, by the life-span of transformer point
For " service life " (known quantity) and " economic surplus life-span " (amount to be asked), object function " is made into transformation from original is methodical
Average annual cost is minimum in device life cycle management " it is changed to " make average annual cost in the transformer economic surplus life-span minimum " of the present invention.
The it is proposed of " transformer economic surplus life-span " concept, has fully taken into account parameter in transformer station high-voltage side bus cost calculation and has changed
When, influence that the assessment to the transformer economic surplus life-span is brought.The present invention proposes the concept in " economic surplus life-span ", with transformation
Average annual cost minimization is object function in the device economic surplus life-span, has fully taken into account the factor of business decision, has improved result
The degree of accuracy and reasonability.
Algorithmically, present invention employs QMC (Quasi-Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte-Carlo) algorithm, compared to original
MC algorithms used by technology, on the basis of difference is little in the accuracy of result of calculation, QMC convergences of algorithm speed is more
It hurry up, the calculating speed of program can be improved.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is the required accompanying drawing used in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, for those of ordinary skill in the art
Speech, on the premise of not paying creative work, other accompanying drawings can also be obtained according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is that a kind of flow of power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method provided in an embodiment of the present invention is illustrated
Figure；
Fig. 2 is a kind of schematic flow sheet of Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is a kind of schematic diagram of data computation module provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is a kind of schematic diagram of power transformer economic surplus service life evaluation system provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
In order that those skilled in the art more fully understand the technical scheme in the present invention, below in conjunction with of the invention real
The accompanying drawing in example is applied, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described implementation
Example only part of the embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is common based on the embodiment in the present invention, this area
The every other embodiment that technical staff is obtained under the premise of creative work is not made, should all belong to protection of the present invention
Scope.
It is a kind of power transformer economic surplus life appraisal side provided in an embodiment of the present invention in a first aspect, referring to Fig. 1
The schematic flow sheet of method, specifically includes following steps：
Step S101：According to power transformer cost of investment, cost depletions, Environmental costs, operation expense,
Failure cost and scrap cost, structure power transformer economic surplus Life Cost CRLC(T1) computation model.
Specifically, a cost of investment, cost depletions, Environmental costs, operation expense, failure cost and scrap cost
The consuming cost of power transformer is constituted, to carry out power transformer economic surplus Life Cost, first to each cost
Asked for.
Calculate a cost of investment：
Cost of investment of transformer is defined as C1, including acquisition cost and installation and debugging cost, can going through by enterprise
History archives check in.
Further, computed losses cost：
It is C to define 1 year cost depletions of transformer2i, including open circuit loss cost and load loss cost, calculation formula
For：
In formula (1)：A represents electricity price (the electricity consumption strategy of enterprise mainly influences this parameter), THPYFor year hours of operation,
AFFor availability coefficient, P0For transformer noload losses, IfRepresent load factor, PkFor transformer load loss,For discount because
Son, r are interest rate, and i indication transformers have run year.
Further, Environmental costs are calculated：
It is C to define 1 year Environmental costs of transformer3i, calculation formula is：
In formula (2)：EPiIt is the actual year total losses of 1 year transformer, EPSIt is standard year total losses, CeIt is transformer loss pair
The environmental treatment expense for the specific emissions thing answered.
Further, operation expense is calculated：
It is C to define 1 year operation expense of transformer4i, calculation formula is：
Wherein, a0、b0、c0Represent the distributed constant of transformer station high-voltage side bus maintenance cost.
Further, failure cost is calculated：
It is C to define the transformer failure cost of 1 year5i, including trouble hunting cost and breakdown loss cost, because this hair
It is bright be from the point of view of electricity consumption enterprise, therefore breakdown loss into should be have a power failure caused by production on loss.Calculate public
Formula is：
In formula (5)：RCFor transformer fault unit interval average rehabilitation cost, tMTTRWhen being that transformer fault is averagely repaired
Between, RLIt is to be lost caused by being produced to enterprise the transformer fault unit interval, λiFor the transformer fault rate of 1 year, wherein, λi
Random fuzzy variable can be used as to handle, distribution function is：
Wherein aλ=(aλ1,aλ2,aλ3) (5)
In formula (5), aλ、bλ、cλFor the Random-fuzzy distributed constant of Power Transformer Faults rate.
Calculating to scrap cost：
It is C that transformer, which is defined, in 1 year cost scrapped6i, including cost of disposal and residual value income, calculation formula is：
In formula：DCFor transformer cost of disposal, ρ is the salvage value rate of transformer.
Defined variable：T0Represent that transformer has run year, T when enterprise changes tactful1Represent that enterprise arrives change after changing strategy
Year between when depressor is scrapped.
Finally, transformer economic surplus Life Cost C is drawnRLC(T1) calculation formula：
Wherein, T0It is that power transformer has run year, T when enterprise changes tactful1It is to become after enterprise changes strategy to electric power
Year between when depressor is scrapped, C1It is a cost of investment, C2iIt is 1 year cost depletions, C3iIt is 1 year Environmental costs, C4i
Represent the operation expense of 1 year, C5iFor 1 year failure cost, C6iFor in 1 year cost scrapped.
Step S102：According to power transformer economic surplus Life Cost, year in power transformer economic surplus life-span is built
C is lostERLCComputation model.
Specifically, C is lost in the power transformer economic surplus life-span every yearERLCComputation model be：
Step S103：Set the span in power transformer economic surplus life-span.
Specifically, empirically, when dispatching from the factory, service life is typically set to 20 years power transformer, if electric power in 2010
Transformer comes into operation, then by the end of 2015, service life is 5 years to power transformer, then residual life is 15 years.So
And in use, the service life of power transformer can not be set to fixed value completely, what power transformer had been run
Life-span is known quantity, and the economic surplus life-span is variable, rule of thumb, can be by the economic surplus lifetime settings one of power transformer
Scope, in of the invention, the selection span in the economic surplus life-span of power transformer follows following principle：So that transformer is complete
The maximum of life cycle is 40 years.Therefore, the minimum value in transformer economic surplus life-span is 1, and maximum subtracts transformation for 40
Device has run year.
Step S104：According to the span, calculated using Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm each in the span
The individual economic surplus life-span is lost every year.
Wherein, referring to Fig. 2, for the schematic flow sheet of Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm, specific steps include：
Step S201：The integral function of each cost of the power transformer is constructed respectively.
Specifically, assume the expectation E (g (X of transformer loss cost1,…,Xd)), if X1,…,XdIndependently and obey
Distribution function is F1,…,FdDistribution, then：
Wherein, (U1,…,Ud) obey [0,1)dOn be uniformly distributed,
So as to the expectation E (g (X for seeking function of random variable1,…,Xd)) simulation be converted into and ask [0,1)dSuperior function
IntegrationUnder this view, Monte carlo algorithm and Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm be all have independently produced n [0,
1)dOn distributed point U(i)=(U1 (i),…,U( d i)), i=1 ..., n, Ran HouyongEstimation as the integration：
Step S202：Construct the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of parameter in each cost.
Specifically, the van der Corput sequences that it is 2 that the one-dimensional low deviation sequence in the present invention, which is base, van der
Corput sequences are simplest one-dimensional low deviation sequences, are the bases for constructing other low deviation sequences.The van der
Corput sequences since 0, interval for [0,1).System of the construction based on nonnegative integer of Van der Corput sequences
Represent.For base b >=2, any one positive integer k has a unique b system to represent：
Example k=19, b=3, it is exactly 19=2*3 to be expressed as 3 carries 192+0*31+1*30=201.
Wherein there was only limited individual aj(k) it is not zero.Following " being totally turned over converting " is done for k, is converted to decimal
Number：
In upper example,It is radix with 3, for n=0,1,2 ..., 0,1/3 is obtained,
2/3,1/9,4/9…。
Point, which can compare, caused by low deviation sequence is evenly distributed in integral domain, so as to avoid the poly- of random number
Collection property.
Step S203：In the span in the power transformer economic surplus life-span, choose an enterprise and change
Year between when being scrapped after strategy to power transformer.
Step S204：Year between during for being scrapped after the enterprise change strategy of selection to power transformer is more
Direct access is carried out in the secondary one-dimensional low deviation sequence from each parameter as the parameter value calculation electric power in each cost
The loss of transformer.
Step S205：The loss calculation result of all power transformers of calculating is summed up averagely, draws electricity
Power transformer loss average value, i.e. economic surplus life-span are lost every year.
In step S204, the condition that result of calculation meets twice is：The power transformer loss average value calculated twice
Between percentage be less than threshold value 5%, specific implementation step includes：
Step S301：Year between during for being scrapped after same enterprise's change strategy to power transformer, is calculated
Difference percentage between adjacent power transformer loss average value described twice.
Step S302：Judge the size of the difference percentage and given threshold.
Step S303：If the difference percentage is discontinuously less than the given threshold twice, for what is chosen
The enterprise change when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy between year, randomly select parameter value again, and repeat according to
The method successively calculated is calculated.
If the difference percentage is less than the given threshold twice in succession, step S206 is performed.
Step S206：Year and the power transformer between when being scrapped after output enterprise change strategy to power transformer
The economic surplus life-span of device is lost every year.
In general, the enterprise change when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy between year have it is a variety of may,
Minimum value is 1, and maximum subtracts for 40 and run year.Assuming that the enterprise changes when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy it
Between year maximum be 15, then calculation procedure is as follows：
Year between when being scrapped after making enterprise's change tactful first to power transformer is 1, calculates corresponding change
Depressor residual life is lost every year, and step is：
1st iteration random value from the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of each variable is lost every year as variate-value, calculating,
Then calculate the averagely average annual of the 1st iteration and (special, average year of the loss equal to the 1st iteration every year of the 1st iteration is lost
It is lost)；
2nd iteration random value from the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of each variable is lost every year as variate-value, calculating,
The 1st average annual loss for iterating to the 2nd iterative calculation gained is summed up averagely, gained is the average year of the 2nd iteration
It is lost；The average average annual loss for calculating the 2nd iteration differs whether percentage is less than threshold with the average annual loss of the 1st iteration
Value, if being not less than threshold value, carry out the 3rd iteration；
3rd iteration random value from the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of each variable is lost every year as variate-value, calculating,
The 1st average annual loss for iterating to the 3rd iterative calculation gained is summed up averagely, gained is the average year of the 3rd iteration
It is lost；The average average annual loss for calculating the 3rd iteration differs whether percentage is less than threshold with the average annual loss of the 2nd iteration
Value, if being not less than threshold value, carry out the 4th iteration；
Assuming that when having carried out the 30th iteration, the average average annual loss of the 30th iteration and the average average annual loss of the 29th time
Difference percentage is less than threshold value, then considers average average annual loss and the average average annual loss phase of the 28th iteration of the 29th iteration
Whether poor percentage is less than threshold value, if the average average annual loss of the 29th iteration differs with the average average annual loss of the 28th iteration
Percentage is not less than threshold value, then carries out the 31st iteration；
Assuming that when having carried out the 40th iteration, the average average annual loss of the 40th iteration and the average average annual loss of the 39th time
Difference percentage is less than threshold value, then considers average average annual loss and the average average annual loss phase of the 38th iteration of the 39th iteration
Whether poor percentage is less than threshold value, it is assumed that the average average annual loss of the 39th iteration and the average average annual loss phase of the 38th iteration
Poor percentage is less than threshold value, then the average average annual loss of the 40th iteration is to arrive power transformer after the enterprise changes strategy
Corresponding average annual loss when being 1 of year between when scrapping.
Calculated the enterprise change when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy between year corresponding average annual damage when being 1
Consumption, make the enterprise change when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy between year be 2, continue above-mentioned steps and calculate the enterprise
Corresponding average annual loss when being 2 of year between when being scrapped after industry change strategy to power transformer.Until the enterprise changes
Year average annual loss corresponding to from 1 to 15 between when being scrapped after strategy to power transformer has been obtained.
Choose the enterprise change when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy between year damaged every year corresponding to from 1 to 15
Minimum average annual loss in consumption, the enterprise corresponding with minimum average annual loss change it is tactful after to power transformer scrap when it
Between year be transformer the economic surplus life-span.
Because the most parameters in transformer items cost calculation formula are not definite value, but it is one in some values
, or value, in some section, when calculating the desired value in economic surplus life-span, the present invention uses Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm
(QMC).Numerical value is chosen in the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of same parameters, the numerical value changes strategy for the same enterprise
Year between when being scrapped afterwards to power transformer.Such as calculate the cost depletions C of power transformer2iWhen, containing parameter electricity price a,
Electricity price a is a variable quantity in enterprise changes this period scrapped after strategy to power transformer, rather than changeless,
When iterations is very big, total average value tends to desired value.When iterations is seldom, the result of single can be to total flat
Average has considerable influence.When iterations is a lot, the influence of the result of single to overall average will reduce, now, every time
The average value of calculating just almost no longer changes.Result of calculation is influenceed in order to prevent small probability event, therefore it is required that carrying out very
Successive ignition calculates, and each iteration will be iterated the judgement whether terminated.What is terminated is determined with two：First, this calculating
Obtain average value and whether the last time is differed less than threshold value；If second, meet above-mentioned condition, then consider in last iteration
Whether result of determination also meets the condition of first, while during the condition of satisfaction first and Article 2, can just stop iteration.
All random numbers are in test with caused by QMC algorithms, are that one kind can accelerate convergent method.
Certainly, in calculating process, in order to improve precision, lower threshold value can also be set.
In Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm, if d is the dimension of the independent risk factor, then just from the hypercube of d dimensions
Sampling, for traditional Monte carlo algorithm then therefrom random generation series of points, and to Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm it is production
The raw point for determining series, the series of this determination can uniformly cover hypercube, then measure this series of points and cover this
The amount of the uniformity coefficient in region is referred to as deviation.What is covered is more uniform, then deviation is lower.This series of point is also referred to as low deviation sequence
Row, the distance big not as random point between points and clustering phenomena of low deviation sequence.
Step S105：Inquire about and determine that the minimum in the span in the average annual loss of all economic surplus life-spans is average annual
Loss.
Step S106：According to the minimum average annual warp that the corresponding economic surplus life-span is lost, determines power transformer
Help residual life TERL。
Specifically, the TERLFor
On the other hand, as shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4, the embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of power transformer economic surplus longevity
Assessment system, including data computation module 413 are ordered, the data computation module 413 includes sequence generating unit 4132, simulation meter
Unit 4133, iterations judgement unit 4131 and intermediate result processing unit 4134 are calculated, wherein,
The sequence generating unit 4132 is used to generate one-dimensional low deviation sequence, and generation is van der Corput sequences
Row.
The analogue computer 4133 is used to generating the calculating of direct access and each iterative process, and by iterations
Differentiation amount be sent to the iterations judgement unit 4131, random number is in the sequence generated from sequence generating unit 4132
Direct access.
The iterations judgement unit 4131 is used to determine whether to carry out next iteration, and all iterative calculation are tied
Fruit is sent to the analogue computer 4133.
The intermediate result processing unit 4134 is used to calculate power transformer economic surplus life-span, including " add and be averaged "
Calculate, and carry out the judgement that power transformer minimum is lost every year, determine the power transformer economic surplus life-span.
A kind of power transformer economic surplus service life evaluation system provided in an embodiment of the present invention also includes data input mould
Block 411, data storage module 412 and human-computer interaction module 414, wherein,
The data input module 411 sends required parameter input to the human-computer interaction module 414 and parameter definition is believed
Number, and the data storage module 412 is sent to after the parameter of acquisition is classified；Data input module 411 is according to loss
Type is divided into 6 units and 1 " common parameter " unit, and the parameter that each unit includes is as shown in figure 4, the definition of parameter can
By being described in detail in above-mentioned power transformer remaining economic life appraisal procedure, can be checked in, here not
Repeated again.This unit can send control information to human-computer interaction module 414, be told by " display unit " needed for user
The parameter and parameter definition of input, after user is by keyboard input parameter, user's input results are sent into data storage by this unit
Stored in " input quantity " of module 412.
The human-computer interaction module 414 is used to input the required parameter, the result for showing the result of input and calculating；People
The user oriented of machine interactive module 414, the medium being connected for computer with the external world, is made up of " keyboard " and " display unit ".User
The parameter value according to needed for prompting by " keyboard " input, the result of input can be obtained by " display unit " and software calculates
Result.
The data storage module 412 is used to store the required parameter, and the required parameter is sent into the number
According to computing module 413；Data storage module 412 splits data into " input quantity ", " constant ", " amount of calculation " three class.Data input
The numerical value that module 411 inputs is stored in " input quantity ", the constant value that " constant " storage is used in calculating, " amount of calculation " storage number
The numerical value inputted according to computing module 413.This unit can send control information to human-computer interaction module 414, and result of calculation is led to
" display unit " is crossed to be shown.
, can be in enterprise with Parameters variation (such as peak and valley time electricity the embodiments of the invention provide complete theoretical method
Valency policy) respond after, the transformer economic surplus life-span is assessed.Compared to existing theory, not only calculating
Take into account in journey influences caused by Parameters variation, to help enterprise to make more preferable decision-making, and algorithmically improves
Calculating speed.
It according to " transformer economic surplus life-span " concept proposed by the present invention is theoretical foundation that the main points of invention, which are, establishes and becomes
Depressor economic surplus life appraisal computation model, is calculated using the QMC algorithms better than MC algorithms, to improve calculating speed.
The description of embodiment of the method more than, it is apparent to those skilled in the art that the present invention can
Realized by the mode of software plus required general hardware platform, naturally it is also possible to by hardware, but in many cases the former
It is more preferably embodiment.Based on such understanding, technical scheme substantially makes tribute to prior art in other words
The part offered can be embodied in the form of software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, bag
Some instructions are included to so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) performs
The all or part of step of each embodiment methods described of the present invention.And foregoing storage medium includes：Read-only storage
(ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can be with the medium of store program codes.
It is understood that the present invention can be used in numerous general or special purpose computing system environments or configuration.Such as：It is individual
People's computer, server computer, handheld device or portable set, laptop device, multicomputer system, based on microprocessor
The system of device, set top box, programmable consumer-elcetronics devices, network PC, minicom, mainframe computer including to take up an official post
DCE of what system or equipment etc..
The present invention can be described in the general context of computer executable instructions, such as program
Module.Usually, program module includes performing particular task or realizes routine, program, object, the group of particular abstract data type
Part, data structure etc..The present invention can also be put into practice in a distributed computing environment, in these DCEs, by
Task is performed and connected remote processing devices by communication network.In a distributed computing environment, program module can be with
In the local and remote computer-readable storage medium including storage device.
It should be noted that herein, the relational terms of such as " first " and " second " or the like are used merely to one
Individual entity or operation make a distinction with another entity or operation, and not necessarily require or imply these entities or operate it
Between any this actual relation or order be present.Moreover, term " comprising ", "comprising" or its any other variant are intended to
Cover including for nonexcludability, so that process, method, article or equipment including a series of elements not only include those
Key element, but also the other element including being not expressly set out, or also include for this process, method, article or set
Standby intrinsic key element.In the absence of more restrictions, the key element limited by sentence "including a ...", it is not excluded that
Other identical element in the process including the key element, method, article or equipment also be present.
Described above is only the embodiment of the present invention, is made skilled artisans appreciate that or realizing this hair
It is bright.A variety of modifications to these embodiments will be apparent to one skilled in the art, as defined herein
General Principle can be realized in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention.Therefore, it is of the invention
The embodiments shown herein is not intended to be limited to, and is to fit to and principles disclosed herein and features of novelty phase one
The most wide scope caused.
Claims (5)
- A kind of 1. power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method, it is characterised in that including：According to power transformer cost of investment, cost depletions, Environmental costs, operation expense, failure cost and a report Useless cost, structure power transformer economic surplus Life Cost CRLC(T1) computation model；According to power transformer economic surplus Life Cost, C is lost in the structure power transformer economic surplus life-span every yearERLCMeter Calculate model；Set the span in power transformer economic surplus life-span；According to the span, each economic surplus life-span in the span is calculated using Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm Average annual loss；Inquire about and determine the average annual loss of minimum in the span in the average annual loss of all economic surplus life-spans；According to the minimum average annual economic surplus life-span T that the corresponding economic surplus life-span is lost, determines power transformerERL；Wherein, the CRLC(T1) beThe CERLCForThe TERLForT0It is that power transformer has run year, T when enterprise changes tactful1It is to be scrapped after enterprise changes strategy to power transformer When between year, C1It is a cost of investment, C2iIt is 1 year cost depletions, C3iIt is 1 year Environmental costs, C4iRepresent i-th The operation expense in year, C5iFor 1 year failure cost, C6iFor in 1 year cost scrapped；The Quasi-Monte-Carlo algorithm includes：The integral function of each cost of the power transformer is constructed respectively；Construct the one-dimensional low deviation sequence of parameter in each cost；In the span in the power transformer economic surplus life-span, choose after an enterprise changes strategy and become to electric power Year between when depressor is scrapped；Year between during for being scrapped after the enterprise change strategy of selection to power transformer, repeatedly from each parameter One-dimensional low deviation sequence in carry out loss of the direct access as the parameter value calculation power transformer in each cost；The loss calculation result of all power transformers of calculating is summed up averagely, show that power transformer loss is flat Average, i.e. economic surplus life-span are lost every year；Export the enterprise change when being scrapped to power transformer after strategy between year and the power transformer economy Residual life is lost every year.
- 2. power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that export the enterprise The economic surplus life-span of year and the power transformer between when being scrapped after industry change strategy to power transformer damages every year Before consumption, in addition to：Year between during for being scrapped after same enterprise's change strategy to power transformer, calculates adjacent electricity described twice Difference percentage between power transformer loss average value；Judge the size of the difference percentage and given threshold；If the difference percentage is less than the given threshold twice in succession, the economic surplus longevity of output power transformer The average annual loss of life；If the difference percentage is discontinuously less than the given threshold twice, change plan for the enterprise chosen Year between when slightly being scrapped afterwards to power transformer, randomly selects parameter value again, and repeats successively to calculate according to described Method is calculated.
- 3. power transformer economic surplus lifetime estimation method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that the setting threshold It is worth for 5%.
- A kind of 4. power transformer economic surplus service life evaluation system, it is characterised in that including data computation module, the data Computing module includes sequence generating unit, analogue computer, iterations judgement unit and intermediate result processing unit, its In,The sequence generating unit is used to generate one-dimensional low deviation sequence；The analogue computer is used to generating the calculating of direct access and each iterative process, and by the differentiation amount of iterations It is sent to the iterations judgement unit；The iterations judgement unit is used to determine whether to carry out next iteration, and all iterative calculation results are sent to The analogue computer；The intermediate result processing unit is used to calculate the power transformer economic surplus life-span, and carries out power transformer most off year The judgement being lost, determine the power transformer economic surplus life-span.
- 5. power transformer economic surplus service life evaluation system according to claim 4, it is characterised in that the system is also Including data input module, data storage module and human-computer interaction module, wherein,Parameter input and parameter definition signal needed for the data input module to human-computer interaction module transmission, and will obtain Parameter classified after be sent to the data storage module；The human-computer interaction module is used to input the required parameter, the result for showing the result of input and calculating；The data storage module is used to store the required parameter, and the required parameter is sent into the data and calculates mould Block.
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| CN107239880B (en) * | 2017-05-03 | 2021-01-26 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司 | Power grid technical improvement fund demand measurement and calculation model based on equipment life statistical analysis |
| CN114692369A (en) * | 2020-12-30 | 2022-07-01 | 新疆金风科技股份有限公司 | Wind turbine generator operation control method and device, controller and storage medium |
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| CN102495967A (en) * | 2011-12-12 | 2012-06-13 | 山东电力集团公司济宁供电公司 | Method for calculating repair cycle of power transformer in operation |
| CN102999703A (en) * | 2012-11-29 | 2013-03-27 | 浙江省电力公司 | Calculation method of entire-life-cycle based transformer cost risk |
| CN104392277A (en) * | 2014-11-13 | 2015-03-04 | 云南电网公司大理供电局 | Transformer economy service life predication method and device |
| CN104484723A (en) * | 2014-12-25 | 2015-04-01 | 国家电网公司 | Power transformer economic life prediction method based on life data |
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| KR101160775B1 (en) * | 2011-05-17 | 2012-06-28 | 한국전력공사 | System and method for evaluating integrity of power transformer |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102495967A (en) * | 2011-12-12 | 2012-06-13 | 山东电力集团公司济宁供电公司 | Method for calculating repair cycle of power transformer in operation |
| CN102999703A (en) * | 2012-11-29 | 2013-03-27 | 浙江省电力公司 | Calculation method of entire-life-cycle based transformer cost risk |
| CN104392277A (en) * | 2014-11-13 | 2015-03-04 | 云南电网公司大理供电局 | Transformer economy service life predication method and device |
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